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EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1750 as Dollar Rallies on Fed Indications and French Protest

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  • September 20, 2025
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EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 on Friday as the US Dollar bounced off three-year lows, fueled by increasing Treasury yields and reserve Federal Reserve officials’ dovish rhetoric after this week’s 25 bps cut in interest rates. Whereas San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari indicated a balanced prognosis, Governor Stephen Miran favored more easing, pointing to internal divergence. Meanwhile, political turmoil in France, with nationwide protests against planned cuts in spending, put pressure on the Euro. With a thin economic docket this week, investors now set their sights on future US data releases, such as PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE. KEY LOOKOUTS • Conflicting opinions by Daly, Kashkari, and Miran continue to influence expectations for upcoming rate cuts. • Nationwide demonstrations against spending reductions pressure the Euro and contribute to political risks in the region. • The major releases such as Flash PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and Core PCE inflation will be steering market sentiment next week. • Short-term direction remains key with EUR/USD support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800/1.1850. EUR/USD fell back below 1.1750 as the US Dollar rallied on the strength of rising Treasury yields and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials in the wake of the recent 25 bps rate cut. While Fed members Daly and Kashkari kept a balanced tone, Governor Miran hinted that further easing might be warranted, which created market uncertainty. On the other hand, political tensions in France, where widespread protests broke out over suggested spending reductions, continued to weaken the Euro. With scarce data this week, speculators are looking ahead to next’s US economic reports, including PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and the Core PCE inflation measure, for new direction. EUR/USD declined below 1.1750 after the US Dollar recovered on higher Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments. Political tension in France put additional pressure on the Euro, and markets now look to major US releases including GDP and Core PCE for new impetus. • EUR/USD fell 0.32% to 1.1747 as the US Dollar recovered from three-year lows. • Higher US Treasury yields underpinned the Greenback later in the week. • Fed officials sent out conflicting signals — Daly tilted dovish, Kashkari remained neutral, and Miran signaled further easing. • Protests in France against proposed spending reductions pushed the Euro and introduced political risk. • US Jobless Claims dropped to 231K, ahead of estimates, and the Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 23.2. • Futures markets expect a 90% probability of yet another Fed rate cut this month and close to 80% for December. • The important technical levels are support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800–1.1850, while RSI still supports the overall uptrend. The Euro came under pressure against the US Dollar as political unrest in France and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials influenced market sentiment. Demonstrations in major French cities underscored popular resistance against planned spending cuts, giving President Emmanuel Macron and his newly elected Prime Minister fresh challenges. This political unrest created another level of uncertainty for the Euro, already burdened by external factors. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView To the upside, the Dollar found support on the US side from firmer Treasury yields and recent comments from Fed officials after a 25 bps rate cut. Although Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari found a balanced tone, Governor Stephen Miran reaffirmed his liking for more aggressive easing, highlighting splits in the Fed. With the calendar in the week looking fairly light, focus is shifting to coming US economic announcements like PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and Core PCE that will give better insight into the economic direction and policy trajectory. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 following an evening star candlestick pattern formation, indicating deteriorating momentum for the Euro. Bears are looking to 1.1700 as the next level of support, with a deeper sell-off possibly revealing the September 11 low at 1.1659 and the 100-day SMA around 1.1560–1.1574. On the upside, a reversal above 1.1800 could set the stage for 1.1850 and eventually the year-to-date high at 1.1918, while the RSI still underpins the larger-picture bullish bias by remaining below overbought. FORECAST If EUR/USD can maintain its position above the 1.1700 support and draw in new buying, the pair may recover momentum towards 1.1800. A move above this level would set the stage for additional gains towards 1.1850, with potential to test the year-to-date high at 1.1918. US data weakness and or a relaxation of political tensions in Europe may be catalysts for this rally. On the downside, persistent pressure from higher US Treasury yields and continued French political turmoil could drive EUR/USD lower. A strong breakdown below 1.1700 could reveal the September 11 low at 1.1659, with additional bears risks reaching the 100-day SMA and the August swing low in the 1.1560–1.1574 area. Bigger-than-anticipated US data would most likely speed this bearish trend.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weaken in Advance of BoJ Policy Decision as USD Advances Following Fed

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  • September 18, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to weaken against a firmer US Dollar, following post-FOMC losses as markets hold out for the Bank of Japan’s policy release on Friday. Japanese Core Machinery Orders weaker than forecast and political turmoil have acted to weigh on the JPY, while the rate cut and dovish inflation prospects from the Fed helped underpin a USD advance. Though, expectations of the BoJ to continue gradual policy normalization and reduction of US-Japan rate differentials are set to cap steeper JPY losses. Traders are on the edge before the BoJ’s two-day gathering, with short-term direction dependent on policy guidance and near-term US data releases. KEY LOOKOUTS • Eyes will be on Friday’s decision and direction regarding Japan’s interest rate path, with market expectations for continued policy normalization. • The Fed’s recent rate cut and hints at further easing sit against Japan’s tightening bias, influencing USD/JPY momentum. • Soft Japanese Core Machinery Orders indicate domestic headwinds, whereas US jobless claims and Philly Fed statistics might influence short-term moves. • USD/JPY is resisted around 147.40–147.50, and support is seen around 146.00–145.50, prime zones for traders to observe. The Japanese Yen continued its weakening against the US Dollar on Thursday, weighed down by soft local data and political tension before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan. The rebound in the USD after the Fed cut interest rates further supported the decline in the JPY, driving USD/JPY past the 147.00 level. Nonetheless, hopes of BoJ gradual policy normalization and the closing of rate differentials with the US are probably going to put a ceiling on further losses. Dealers now remain on their guard, looking towards Friday’s BoJ update for clearer guidance, before US macro releases later today might add further near-term volatility. Japanese Yen continued to weaken against a recovering US Dollar, with USD/JPY rising past 147.00 in anticipation of the BoJ policy meeting. Poor Japanese data and Fed-induced USD strength took its toll on the JPY, although policy divergence will cap heavier losses. Market participants now look towards Friday’s BoJ announcement for short-term guidance. • The Japanese Yen dropped for a second consecutive day against the US Dollar. • USD/JPY surged above the 147.00 handle in Thursday’s Asian session. • Soft Japanese Core Machinery Orders provided additional pressure on the Yen. • Domestic political instability cast doubts on imminent BoJ tightening. • The US Fed reduced rates by 25 bps but indicated inflation risks still persist, supporting USD demand. • Markets anticipate the BoJ to leave rates unchanged on Friday but seek clues on policy direction. • Major technical levels indicate resistance at 147.40–147.50 and support at 146.00–145.50. The Japanese Yen lost further ground against the US Dollar as investors focused on the forthcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting. The mood soured after Japan’s Core Machinery Orders report indicated a deeper-than-anticipated drop, pointing to persistent economic weakness. Domestic political uncertainty also bore down on the currency, with rumors that the BoJ might be likely to hold back from tightening. At the same time, the recent rate cut by the Fed and dovish comments over inflation gave the US Dollar new tailwinds to threaten the Yen’s plight. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Though the currency is weak now, there are still expectations that the BoJ will stay on its gradual path of policy normalization. A strong labor market, a positive trade environment, and the pursuit of the 2% inflation goal all suggest a central bank that will not back off its longer-term tightening policy. Investors are thus proceeding cautiously, with the two-day BoJ meeting under spotlight as markets seek more definitive guidance on the timing and frequency of future rate hikes. Meanwhile, geopolitics and general market sentiment are likely to have a major say in influencing safe-haven demand for the Yen. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY’s recovery above 147.00 indicates reviving short-term momentum, although the pair is confronted with a stiff resistance zone around 147.40–147.50. A breakthrough above this area may open the door to more gains towards 148.00 and potentially the 200-day SMA levels around 148.75. To the negative, support at 146.20 is followed by the critical 146.00 psychological level. A strong fall below this zone may target the 145.50–145.45 area, which if breached, might lead to a more significant correction towards 145.00. FORECAST If USD/JPY manages to hold up well over the 147.00 handle, the buyers may drive the pair up towards the resistance region of 147.40–147.50. A successful breach over this barrier could pave the way for further upside towards 148.00 and the 200-day SMA around 148.75, with chances to test the region of 149.00–149.15 if buying momentum persists. On the other hand, inability to stay above 147.00 may ignite fresh selling pressure, with near-term support at 146.20 and 146.00. A clean break below these levels might bring into focus the 145.50–145.45 zone, which protects the important 145.00 psychological level. A firm break below this zone would prove a more significant corrective phase for the pair.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Loses Ground in the Run-Up to Eurozone Inflation Data as US Dollar Experiences Technical Correction

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  • June 3, 2025
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EUR/USD is losing ground as the US Dollar recovers on technical basis even as the US manufacturing data remains soft. Market players remain focused on the release of forthcoming Eurozone HICP inflation data, which may set the direction for ECB policy. In the meantime, trade tensions have flared again after Donald Trump suggested doubling steel and aluminium tariffs, which elicited a sharp retort from the European Union. With increasingly worrying fears about global trade and economic deceleration, investors stay on guard ahead of major US labor market releases, which may further influence currency action. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets are looking forward to the publication of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) that will provide a glimpse into the European Central Bank (ECB) policy direction. • US Dollar recovers on technical correction, even as a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI reading hints at possible stagflation pressures in the US economy. • Trump’s suggestion that tariffs on steel and aluminium be doubled in size stokes concerns about intensifying trade tensions, prompting denials from the European Union and putting at risk current negotiations. • Investors look to the next US JOLTS report for new labour market indications that will affect USD strength and inform near-term EUR/USD action. EUR/USD is lower around 1.1420 in the Asian session on Tuesday, as the US Dollar experiences a technical correction in spite of continued fears of economic slowdown. The pair fell after its robust performance in the last session, having appreciated more than 0.50%. Traders now await the forthcoming Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation to see how it affects European Central Bank policy expectations. On the other hand, US manufacturing activity continues to shrink as the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, a third month of falling, adding to the market angst. Adding to market nerves, President Donald Trump’s plan to double steel and aluminium tariffs has heightened trade tensions concerns as the European Union threatened possible countermeasures that could threaten bilateral talks. EUR/USD drifts lower around 1.1420 on technical bounce for US Dollar, down on poor US manufacturing data. Market sentiment takes a hit with rising trade tensions following Trump’s tariff increase. •  EUR/USD declines around 1.1420 after recording more than 0.50% on the last session, pummeled by a rebounding US Dollar. •  US Dollar bounces on technical correction even as weaker-than-anticipated ISM Manufacturing PMI data drops to 48.5 in May. •  European Central Bank’s next interest rate move could be influenced by eurozone HICP inflation data. •  Trade tensions escalate as Donald Trump lays out a plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, putting pressure on global markets. •   European Union reacts forcefully, threatening Trump’s tariff increase can derail current trade talks and trigger retaliatory measures. •  US economic worries continue, as stagflationary signs rise as manufacturing production falls for a third consecutive month. •   Traders await US JOLTS Job Openings report later today for additional information on labor market strength and possible USD effect. The foreign exchange market is paying close attention to events in the Eurozone and the United States as significant economic and political events unfold. Traders are looking to the publication of the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), an important inflation reading that could have implications for European Central Bank policy later on. Meanwhile, the overall market mood is being influenced by the revived trade tensions following former US President Donald Trump’s decision to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which was met with strong criticism from the European Union. The EU has threatened that such a move could dash hopes of pending trade negotiations and prompt retaliatory actions, which casts a cloud of uncertainty over the global economic outlook. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, recent US data keeps highlighting issues in manufacturing. The most recent ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed a third month of slowing down, which indicates stress on the industrial part of the economy. In spite of that, the US Dollar has still been able to recover some lost ground as a result of market positioning and technical considerations. In the near future, focus will be on the US JOLTS Job Openings report, which can offer additional insight into the health of the US labor market and inform expectations for future economic trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is immediately met with resistance around the 1.1450 level, an area that corresponds with recent session highs and could limit further upside if bullish pressure diminishes. To the downside, initial support is at 1.1380, where buyers previously intervened, then even firmer support at the 1.1350 handle, which aligns with the 50-day moving average. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are in the neutral range, predicting a possible consolidation phase unless a clear breakthrough or breakdown happens. Traders will be looking for a sustained breakout above resistance or below strong support to establish the next direction of travel. FORECAST The Euro initially responded well, with EUR/USD increasing more than 0.50% during the last session as investor sentiment improved temporarily. Support from positive momentum came courtesy of expectations regarding the soon-to-be-released Eurozone HICP inflation data that can provide some indication of the European Central Bank’s next policy decision. Moreover, worries of decelerating US economic numbers, such as softer manufacturing data, helped to encourage a more bearish sentiment regarding the US Dollar. These sentiments assisted the Euro to rally during the initial trading session, aided by optimism and positioning within markets. The advances, however, were temporary as the US Dollar recovered owing to a technical reversal, pushing EUR/USD down around the 1.1420 level. The Dollar’s rebound occurred notwithstanding the continued uncertainty over economic softness, such as a third straight monthly drop in US factory output. To add to the bear pressure on the Euro, news of former US President Donald Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on steel and aluminium again fueled trade war fears. Further hammering the sentiment was the European Union’s threat

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Retreats In the Face of US Dollar Recovery and Changing Global Economic Patterns

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  • May 27, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) declined below the 0.6500 level on Tuesday after retreating from a six-month peak, while the US Dollar (USD) recovered losses in recent days as Treasury yields declined for the third day running. Improved Chinese industrial profit growth and weakening US-EU trade tensions are giving conflicting signals for the AUD/USD, but concerns about US fiscal deficits and debt levels remain to underpin the Greenback. The recent Australian Reserve Bank rate cut and outlook for additional monetary accommodation may cap AUD’s gains, but technical indicators are favoring optimistic caution for a possible rebound if major resistance levels can be broken. Traders continue to be alert to future US economic news and geopolitical events that affect trade relations, which will tend to have the greatest influence on currency movements in the near future. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for future releases such as Durable Goods Orders, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and Consumer Confidence, which may affect the strength of the USD. • Additional Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts may cap AUD advances and burden the currency’s medium-term prospects. • Evolving trade relations—especially the US-China truce and postponed EU tariff deadlines—could impact global risk sentiment and support the AUD. • Monitor resistance at 0.6537 and support at the nine-day EMA (0.6456). A breakout above resistance could target 0.6687, while a drop below support may trigger deeper declines. Traders should closely monitor several key factors influencing the AUD/USD pair in the near term. Future US economic releases, such as Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data, may influence the recovery path of the US Dollar. In the meantime, chances for additional Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts may cap the Australian Dollar’s upside potential. Developments in global trade—i.e., the US-China ceasefire and postponed US-EU tariff announcement—may influence risk perception and indirectly help prop up the AUD given the robust trade linkages between Australia and China. Moreover, technical levels are still important, and the pair should break above 0.6537 in order to continue its bullish trend, while a fall below the nine-day EMA at 0.6456 could open further declines. Traders need to monitor major US economic indicators and additional Reserve Bank of Australia rate decisions that can influence AUD/USD action. Global trade tensions and China’s economic performance continue to be key drivers given Australia’s high trade dependencies. Technically, breaking above 0.6537 would confirm additional advances, with support around 0.6456. • The Australian dollar fell from a six-month high of 0.6537, below the psychological 0.6500 barrier. • The USD recovered as Treasury yields fell for the third consecutive day, giving support to the Greenback. • April reported a 3% YoY increase in China’s industrial profits, which indicated economic strength and aided AUD sentiment. • The Reserve Bank of Australia just cut rates by 25 bps and signaled additional easing if the economic outlook deteriorates. • President Trump pushed out the EU tariff deadline, which improved risk sentiment and provided indirect support for the AUD. • Increasing deficit forecasts and Moody’s credit rating reduction are exerting long-term pressure on the USD. • Resistance is at 0.6537 and the support is at the 9-day EMA (0.6456); a break either way may dictate the next direction. The Australian Dollar continues to be under pressure due to the overall global economic changes and continued policy updates. In spite of a recent lift from China’s better industrial profits—up 3% year-on-year in April—the AUD has failed to continue being positive. China’s economic performance is of great influence over the Australian Dollar because of their strong trade relationship, especially in commodity and manufacturing industries. Also, relaxing US-European Union trade tensions, such as President Trump postponing new tariffs, have favored general market sentiment, indirectly helping risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, US economy concerns continue to capture market attention. The US Dollar has provided signs of strength in the face of increasing fiscal concerns, such as a projected $3.8 billion deficit increase from proposed legislation and Moody’s reduction of the US credit rating. Indications from Federal Reserve officials indicate doubt regarding future policy actions, especially with regard to increasing tariffs and fiscal uncertainty. As markets absorb these updates, traders are also monitoring Australia-China relations and any geopolitical changes that may influence trade dynamics in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair holds a mildly bullish inclination as it trades close to the 0.6500 mark, buoyed by its stand above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the neutral 50 level, showing continued buying interest. A persistent break above the latest high of 0.6537 would strengthen the momentum to the upside and leave the way open for a test of higher levels of resistance. On the other hand, if the pair drops below the nine-day EMA at 0.6456, it may indicate diminishing bullish strength and leave the pair vulnerable to more aggressive correction. Traders should watch these levels for near-term guidance. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may regain its strength against the US Dollar if there is further improvement in global risk appetite, particularly with declining trade tensions between the US and EU and China’s steady industrial growth. Favorable developments in China’s economy, especially those in high-tech and equipment industries, may further push the AUD higher owing to Australia’s robust trade relationships. Also, if US economic statistics fail to meet expectations or Federal Reserve officials start to signal rate cuts in the coming weeks, the Greenback may weaken, creating space for the AUD/USD pair to advance. Another bout of buying above 0.6537 might test further gains towards the 0.6600–0.6687 levels in the near term. On the downside, the Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to further losses if the Reserve Bank of Australia proceeds with additional rate cuts or if Australia-China relations worsen, especially amid rising diplomatic tensions like the Darwin Port lease issue. Persistent concerns over the US fiscal deficit and high bond yields may continue to offer support to the USD. A heavy fall

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