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GBP/USD Drops to Three-Week Low as Positive US Data Bolsters the Dollar Ahead of Major Inflation Report

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  • September 25, 2025
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British Pound (GBP) dropped to its three-week low versus the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with GBP/USD going below the 1.3400 level to trade at around 1.3366, as favorable US economic data fueled demand for the Greenback. Sturdy releases, such as a vicious quarter-upward revision of Q2 GDP to 3.8%, beneath-expectation initial jobless claims of 218K, and an August Durable Goods Orders 2.9% leap, supported faith in the US economy. Although core PCE inflation in Q2 modestly increased to 2.6%, market participants already await Friday’s report on August core PCE, which is set to give essential information regarding the next steps of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. In the meantime, Fed officials are implying a “slightly restrictive” policy, weighing inflation worries against a primarily healthy labor market. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are keeping an eye on the August core PCE reading, which may shape the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate moves. • Solid GDP growth, high durable goods orders, and low unemployment claims underpin the US Dollar and may continue to hold GBP/USD in check. • Fed officials’ comments indicate a “slightly restrictive” monetary policy, emphasizing balancing inflation with labor market stability. • GBP/USD is around the 1.3360–1.3400 level, and any move below this level can generate further bearish momentum. GBP/USD dipped to a three-week low as solid US economic data supported the US Dollar, with the pair falling below 1.3400 to quote around 1.3366. Strong US signals in the form of a revised Q2 growth of 3.8% GDP, below-forecast jobless claims, and a snapback in durable goods orders supported market optimism in the US economy. Traders are now focusing their attention on Friday’s core PCE inflation report, which is expected to be monitored closely for Fed hints on its next move in monetary policy, as Fed officials continue to stress a slightly restrictive tack under conditions of balanced labor market conditions. GBP/USD dropped to a three-week low around 1.3366 following robust US economic data that supported the Dollar. Investors now wait for Friday’s core PCE inflation reading to get cues on the Fed’s next step. • GBP/USD dipped below the 1.3400 level, hitting a three-week low around 1.3366. • Robust US GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 3.8% in Q2. • Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 218K, better than market forecasts. • Durable Goods Orders increased 2.9% in August, indicating robust US economic activity. • Core PCE prices for Q2 rose modestly to 2.6%, narrowly beating expectations. • Fed officials keep a “slightly restrictive” bias and watch inflation and labor market risks closely. • Attention in the markets turns to Friday’s core PCE inflation report, which may have implications for future Fed policy. The British Pound lost value against the US Dollar on Thursday as solid US economic data fueled widespread Greenback demand. Critical releases indicated a strong US economy, with Q2 GDP growth revised to 3.8%, initial jobless claims dipping to 218K, and durable goods orders rising 2.9% in August. The data underscored ongoing economic strength and bolstered confidence in the resilience of the US Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Market eyes are finally on Friday’s central PCE inflation report, which will give some additional insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, Fed officials have reaffirmed the need to keep a slightly restrictive policy stance in order to weigh inflation concerns against the general stability of the labor market. Market observers are following closely as they try to discern the possible path for US interest rates and the general level of economic conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD broke below the important psychological support level of 1.3400, showing bearish short-term momentum. The pair is currently testing levels around 1.3360, with current resistance at 1.3420–1.3450. Moving averages are pointing towards a downtrend, while momentum indicators are hinting at continued selling pressure, which means that further falls are possible if the pair cannot regain important support levels. FORECAST GBP/USD can remain under pressure to the downside as solid US economic figures validate the Dollar. If the pair drops below the existing support level around 1.3360, it can test new lows at levels of 1.3300–1.3320. Market participants will likely be cautious ahead of the core PCE inflation print this Friday that can further increase volatility. A correction is still possible if the Dollar loses steam or UK economic data positively improves. Under those circumstances, GBP/USD may try to re-take the 1.3400–1.3450 area, with resistance around 1.3480–1.3500 being an important hurdle to further gains. Market sentiment will be heavily reliant on future data and Fed cues, leaving the pair vulnerable to economic news both on the Atlantic side and in the US.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Plunges to 1.1700 as Bullish US Data Sends Greenback to 20-Day High

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  • September 25, 2025
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Euro dropped for a second day in a row against the US Dollar, with EUR/USD sliding towards the 1.1700 level as solid US economic data sent the Greenback to a 20-day high. Better-than-anticipated Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods Orders indicated strong US growth, while Q2 Core PCE inflation crept higher to 2.6%. The positive news supported the Dollar and made it more difficult for near-term Federal Reserve easing expectations, with markets now looking to Friday’s August Core PCE inflation print for new policy signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair is at its weakest since September 11, under pressure from widespread Dollar strength. • Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods all surpassed estimates, highlighting strong economic momentum. • Q2 Core PCE crept up to 2.6%, maintaining inflation risks in focus. • Friday’s report will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations as well as market sentiment. EUR/USD still under pressure as robust US economic data feeds the Dollar’s strength, driving the pair to the 1.1700 handle. Strong Jobless Claims, above-consensus Q2 GDP, and increasing Durable Goods Orders reflect strong US growth, while Q2 Core PCE inflation of 2.6% reflects ongoing inflationary pressures. Friday’s August Core PCE inflation report will now be in the market’s focus, which can impact the policy direction of the Federal Reserve and decide the timing of any future rate hikes. EUR/USD drops towards 1.1700 as solid US data lifts the Dollar. Strong GDP, Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods point towards strong growth, with markets looking at Friday’s Core PCE inflation for Fed policy signals. • EUR/USD drops to the 1.1700 level, its lowest since September 11. • US Dollar Index (DXY) leaps to a 20-day high at 98.16. • Initial Jobless Claims were 218K, better than forecasted 235K. • Q2 US GDP was upwardly revised to a yearly 3.8%, higher than expectations. • Durable Goods Orders also climbed 2.9% in August, a sign of robust business spending. • Q2 Core PCE inflation rose modestly to 2.6%, a sign of ongoing inflation. • Attention turns to Friday’s release of August Core PCE inflation, important for Fed policy expectations. The Euro has lost ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row, in response to the influence of positive US economic news. Favorable updates on Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods Orders point to the strength of the US economy, sending a signal of optimism for the Greenback. This change in sentiment is propelling the Euro to trade around the 1.1700 level, hinting at a cautious bias for the currency pair. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Investors are now watching closely for the upcoming economic announcements, specifically the August Core PCE inflation report, which is said to influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy actions. The marriage of steady US growth and chronic inflation worries is influencing market expectations as traders weigh potential pace and magnitude of any monetary policy adjustment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is probing important support around the 1.1700 psychological level, which has served as a near-term base in recent trading sessions. The pair remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting bearish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining close to 40, reflecting potential for additional declines if selling pressure endures. Traders will keep a close eye on whether the pair can sustain above this support or a breakdown below could lead the way to the next technical levels at 1.1650. FORECAST EUR/USD can be expected to experience sustained pressure in the short term if the US Dollar continues to hold on to its strength, bolstered by strong economic reports. A dip below the 1.1700 support can drive the pair towards the subsequent levels of 1.1650–1.1600, indicating bearish strength and guarded Euro sentiments. But any hint at decelerating US inflation or softer-than-expected data will be welcome for the Euro, and a possible bounce back to 1.1750–1.1800 can be expected. The upcoming economic releases, especially the August Core PCE report, will closely be monitored by the traders and could lead to short-term volatility and determine the pair’s direction.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Looks Up to 148 as Japanese Yen Weakens Due to Dismal Manufacturing PMI and BoJ-Fed Policy Divergence

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  • September 24, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to feel the pressure from a widely stronger US Dollar, with the USD/JPY currency pair standing at the threshold of the 148.00 level due to a disheartening Japan Manufacturing PMI figure. Domestic political angst and weak manufacturing figures have created concerns about delayed BoJ interest rate hikes, with expectations of additional Fed rate cuts continuing to prop up the USD. In spite of the Yen’s weak tone, safe-haven buying and policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed could cap big losses, holding the USD/JPY pair within a classic consolidation range before major US and Japanese economic releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • The latest reading of 48.4 points to the sharpest six-month contraction, keeping the Yen under pressure. • Investors closely observe for possible rate increases or dovish trends, particularly before the LDP leadership election on October 4. • Fed Chair Powell’s remarks about inflation and job preservation suggest fewer imminent rate cuts, favoring the US Dollar. • Major releases such as US New Home Sales, last GDP, PCE Price Index, and Tokyo CPI may shape USD/JPY direction in the short term. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure versus the US Dollar as poor manufacturing numbers and local political instability undermine market sentiment. Although the BoJ keeps the door open for rate increases, investor attention is pinned on the release of future economic data, ranging from the Tokyo CPI to US macro releases like GDP and PCE data. On the other hand, conflicting monetary policies—a dovish Fed forward guidance and prospective BoJ tightening—are maintaining the USD/JPY pair in a range, and the 148.00 level is being used as an important near-term resistance. Japanese Yen drops against the US Dollar on poor manufacturing figures and BoJ policy indecision. USD/JPY sticks around 148.00, with near-term action expected to be influenced by coming US and Japan economic indicators. Policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ could cap major Yen losses. • USD/JPY trades around 148.00 as the Japanese Yen weakens against a stronger US Dollar. • Japan Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in September, the quickest rate of contraction in six months. • Domestic political uncertainty leading up to the LDP leadership election may hold back BoJ rate hikes. • BoJ continues to keep policy normalization in mind despite recent economic weakness. • Fed Chair Powell’s comments indicate fewer near-term rate cuts, which are positive for USD demand. • Primary near-term data, such as US GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI, will have the potential to shape USD/JPY direction. • Technicals show resistance at 148.00–148.55 and support at 147.00–146.20 levels. The Japanese Yen continues to be pressured as poor manufacturing statistics and local political instability are creating overhang on the market mood. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4 in September, the steepest decline in six months, and yet another sign of stress for the Japanese economy. Investors are carefully monitoring the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, particularly the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election scheduled on October 4, which can affect the pace of future rate hikes. Although these remain concerns, market players still expect the BoJ to continue pursuing policy normalization if economic conditions are in accordance with its predictions. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView While that, the US Dollar finds support on hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy come later this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent words on striking a balance between inflation and jobs have further upheld guarded optimism for the USD, keeping investors on their toes for future US economic releases, such as New Home Sales, GDP, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Geopolitical tensions and safe-haven requirement also contribute to containing the losses of Yen, leading to a defensive market condition in which players are expecting new economic signals coming from Japan and the United States. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is in consolidation inside a well-known range since early August, creating a rectangle pattern that indicates the period of indecision. Near-term resistance is at the 148.00 round figure, followed closely by the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at its midpoint. Support comes in at mid-147.00s on the downside, with additional levels at 147.00 and 146.20. Neutral daily chart oscillators imply caution, and a sustained break above resistance or below support would be required to confirm a distinct near-term trend. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair is able to breach the resistance at 148.00, it may test the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day SMA as a major hurdle. A prolonged breach past this can pave the way towards the 149.00 level and possibly the monthly top around 149.15, particularly if US Dollar buying demand is boosted by hawkish economic news or risk-on mood in world markets. On the negative side, a fall below the mid-147.00s would have the pair probing support at 147.20, then 147.00. A further fall below here could drive losses towards 146.20, with further extension to 145.50–145.45, which is the lowest since early July. Dovish Fed cues, safe-haven interest, or softer-than-expected US economic data are likely to trigger yen strength.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Above 1.3450 amid US PCE Inflation Figures Meeting Forecasts

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  • August 29, 2025
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GBP/USD is ranging above 1.3450 following a three-day winning streak being snapped, as the US Dollar gained strength on the back of July’s PCE inflation report. Core PCE increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, its best since February, while headline PCE increased 0.2% monthly, leaving the yearly rate unchanged at 2.6%. More-than-expected individual spending and consistent income expansion showcased robust consumer demand, backing the Greenback. In spite of Sterling pulling back from multi-session highs, the pair still stays firm above 1.3450, as traders find the inflation outcomes to be mostly priced in. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.3450 despite ending a three-day winning run as the US Dollar picks up momentum. • US Core PCE inflation increases to 2.9% YoY, the highest since Feb, while headline PCE remains unchanged at 2.6%. • Personal expenditure increases by 0.5% in July, indicating strong consumer demand amidst weaker labor market conditions. • Levels of support lie at 1.3400 and 100-day EMA at 1.3368; levels of resistance are at 1.3530 and 1.3594. GBP/USD remains flat at 1.3450 on Friday after ending a three-day winning spree, as the US Dollar firmed up after July’s PCE inflation report came out. The statistics revealed core PCE rising to 2.9% compared to last year, its best since February, while headline PCE remained steady at 2.6%. Improved personal spending and personal income growth highlighted a buoyant consumer demand, providing additional support to the Greenback. While Sterling has retreated from recent highs, the pair’s continued trade above 1.3450 implies that much of inflation result was already priced in, leaving price action relatively subdued. GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3450 following US PCE inflation data generally in line with forecasts. The Dollar was supported by firmer personal spending, while Sterling remained firm, implying limited market response to the report. • GBP/USD breaks three-day success streak but remains strong over 1.3450. • US Core PCE inflation increased 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, the highest since February. • Headline PCE was up 0.2% MoM, maintaining the annual rate at 2.6%. • Personal spending increased 0.5% in July, beating the forecasted 0.3%. • Personal income increased 0.4% MoM, demonstrating consistent consumer strength. • The US Dollar Index rose back around 98.00, supporting the Greenback’s bullishness. • Technicals indicate support at 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3530 and 1.3594. The British Pound is ranging above 1.3450 after shedding some speed against the US Dollar after the release of US PCE inflation figures. The report revealed that core inflation reached 2.9% year-over-year in July, its peak since February, while headline PCE remained unchanged at 2.6%. These data were mostly in line with forecasts, tempering any dramatic market reaction but solidifying the perception that inflation is sticky. Concurrently, consumer spending increased 0.5% and incomes increased by 0.4%, demonstrating US household resilience in spite of a softening labor market. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Stronger consumer data supports the US economy’s continuation of stability and lent support to the US Dollar that henceforth dragged Sterling’s recent momentum. Though the British Pound has retreated from recent highs, that it has held firm is a testament to the truth that most of the inflation figures were already factored into markets. Generally, the lackluster reaction is a signal that investors are now looking to future US employment figures as well as central bank policy cues for clearer guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is being supported around the 1.3450 level, with firmer downside support at 1.3400 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3368. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3530, followed by the August 14 high at 1.3594. A clear break above these levels would leave the way open for another bout of bullish pressure, whereas inability to hold 1.3400 might cause deeper corrective pressure towards lower support levels. FORECAST If GBP/USD is able to stay above 1.3450 support and continues to gain traction, the pair may test the 1.3530 resistance area again. Breaking above this level successfully might lead the way towards 1.3594, August mid-month high, which indicates more bullish potential. Better risk appetite or weaker US data in subsequent sessions might give Sterling more strength against the Dollar. Conversely, if bears strengthen and push GBP/USD below 1.3450, the subsequent major support is at 1.3400, then the 100-day EMA around 1.3368. A move below these would mark bearish influence and could leave the pair vulnerable to further corrective activities. Better US Dollar demand on the back of economic robustness or hawkish Fed sentiment could continue to keep Sterling pressured in the near term.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Struggles Near Two-Week Lows Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

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  • August 22, 2025
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EUR/USD continues to struggle near two-week lows at 1.1600 as investors look for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for guidance on the central bank’s monetary policy stance. The Euro is subjected to further bearish pressure after Germany’s GDP was lowered, raising fears of Eurozone growth, while the US Dollar excels under risk-off market sentiment with mixed US data. While weaker jobless claims and soft labor indicators preserve hopes for September rate cuts, Fed officials are still at odds, prompting markets to tread warily before Powell speaks. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are looking for cues on whether the Fed will be concerned with inflation risks or a weakening labor market in formulating monetary policy. • The more abrupt-than-expected Q2 GDP decline puts further pressure on the Euro and hints at greater Eurozone economic worries. • Stronger PMIs juxtapose against increasing jobless claims, leaving alive uncertainty about the Fed’s rate trajectory. • Level support is around 1.1560–1.1530, whereas resistance is observable around 1.1625–1.1635, with a wider capping level at around 1.1710. The EUR/USD currency pair is trading near two-week lows as prudent market mood and US Dollar resilience prevail ahead of Jerome Powell’s highly awaited address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The Euro continues to struggle after Germany’s GDP was downwards revised, indicating deeper economic weakness in the Eurozone’s biggest economy. In the meantime, confusing US data—strong PMIs offset by rising jobless claims—has left market participants at a loss on how policy is developing at the Federal Reserve. With Fed policymakers having differing opinions regarding growth and inflation, traders are expecting the tone of Powell to determine near-term directions, with the Euro remaining soft while the Dollar maintains its safe-haven appeal. EUR/USD remains soft at two-week lows as traders wait for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for policy cues. Downward revision in German GDP weakens the Euro, while conflicting US data and uncertainty over the Fed keep market sentiment guarded. • EUR/USD hovers at two-week lows near 1.1600 due to US Dollar demand. • Markets look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for monetary policy cues. • German GDP was revised to a more severe 0.3% contraction in Q2, putting additional pressure on the Euro. • US PMIs surprised to the upside amid signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. • On a weekly basis, US Jobless Claims increased to 235,000, demonstrating the softness in the labor market. •  Fed policymakers presented conflicting opinions on growth and inflation, leaving policy direction unclear. • Technical support is visible at 1.1560–1.1530, while resistance appears at 1.1625–1.1635. The Euro continues to be in a downtrend as investors await Jerome Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium that will offer important clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Market sentiment has been influenced by divergent US economic data, ranging from better-than-anticipated PMIs to increasing jobless claims, confusing traders regarding the priorities of the Fed between keeping the labor market afloat and off-setting inflation risks. Such a risk-averse climate has fueled safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and depressed the Euro. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Surmounting the woes of the Euro is Germany’s second-quarter GDP, which was revised to indicate a more severe contraction, further raising alarm over the health of the Eurozone’s biggest economy. The poorer economic prospects in Europe and the still indeterminate policy stance of the Fed have left investors looking forward to Powell’s words for direction. Market players are especially interested in whether Powell will highlight patience on policy or hint at rate-cut tolerance in September, a choice that will influence global risk sentiment in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has pierced below the weekly range floor at 1.1620, reinforcing the termination of its latest bullish cycle. The currency pair is currently testing support at 1.1590, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August advance coming in at 1.1560 as the next likely cushion. A more precipitous decline might aim at the 1.1520–1.1530 area, where the 61.8% retracement joins the August 5 nadir. On the topside, the 1.1625–1.1635 area now serves as resistance, followed by 1.1673 and 1.1693, with stiffer resistance near the falling trendline at 1.1710. FORECAST If Jerome Powell takes a guarded approach and signals patience before rate cuts, EUR/USD can see some short-term relief, with the pair trying to climb back above the 1.1625–1.1635 resistance zone. A more aggressive rebound could go up towards 1.1670–1.1690, with the 1.1710 trendline serving as the next major hurdle. Positive cues from the Fed in terms of the labor market or any easing in inflation worries would boost risk appetite and place a marginally downward pressure on the Dollar, giving the Euro some room for recovery. Conversely, if Powell does focus on inflation concerns and discourages near-term rate cut expectations, the US Dollar should continue to strengthen, pulling EUR/USD down. A breakdown below 1.1590 may pave the way towards the 1.1560 Fibonacci level, and further weakness should target the stronger 1.1520–1.1530 support area. Eurozone weakness, especially from Germany, may also further fuel bearish momentum and keep the Euro pressured in the near term.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Hits Four-Month Lows at 0.5800 as Markets Await Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

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  • August 22, 2025
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its losing streak for the fifth consecutive session, dropping to a four-month low of near 0.5800 against the US Dollar prior to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The Kiwi continues to come under pressure following the dovish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier this week, while the US Dollar is supported by safe-haven demand and hopes of hawkish policy cues. Market participants are wary, but a break below 0.5800 for an extended period is viewed as a catalyst for further losses, despite the oversold conditions hinting at the possibility of a short-term bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets wait with bated breath for policy signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and hawkish comments will send the US Dollar higher again. • The recent 25 bps OCR reduction and dovish split voting keep weighing on the Kiwi, setting up higher expectations for further easing to come. • Support is at 0.5800 immediately, with greater risk of downside to 0.5765 should it break, and resistance at 0.5835–0.5870. • Risk-off sentiment and safe-haven demand for the US Dollar can continue to weigh on NZD/USD in the short term. NZD/USD declined to the 0.5800 level, a four-month low, as investors grew cautious before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much-awaited speech in Jackson Hole. The duo is under pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish rate cut late in the week, which boosted expectations of more monetary easing, while the US Dollar remains buoyant on safe-haven buying. Market attention now is on comments by Powell, with hawkish messages expected to push the pair down to the next support level of 0.5765, although oversold levels could curb further decline in the short term. NZD/USD fell to 0.5800, four-month low, as risk appetite continues to be weak in anticipation of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The Kiwi remains vulnerable to the dovish tilt by the RBNZ, while the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. • NZD/USD fell to 0.5800, the lowest since mid-April. • The pair is set to post a nearly 2% weekly loss. • Pre-Powell’s Jackson Hole risk-averse sentiment is supporting the US Dollar. • A dovish tone is suppressing the Kiwi after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced the OCR by 25 bps to 3%. • Technical analysis pinpoints 0.5800 as key support, with more downside to 0.5765 if breached. • High resistance at 0.5835 and 0.5870 now caps potential rebounds. • Overbought conditions indicate a potential short-term rebound, although general sentiment is still bearish. The New Zealand Dollar is still under intense pressure as investors respond to changing global monetary policies and increasing uncertainty in financial markets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate reduction by 25 basis points this week has cemented a dovish tone, with policymakers indicating room for additional easing in the future. The action has eroded confidence in the Kiwi, with traders still expecting weakening domestic growth and softer labor market conditions. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar is getting support from risk aversion and investor hesitancy before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole. Markets are closely monitoring for any signal on the Fed’s future actions, with the chance of hawkish comments to support the Dollar’s superiority. Joined with the ongoing international economic worries, the defensive sentiment has left the New Zealand Dollar fighting to find buyers, underpinning the general spread of central bank divergences. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is at the level of critical support of 0.5800, a breakdown below which could pave the way toward the next bearish target of 0.5765. Although the pair is still oversold following the last few days of straight decline, support levels are limited to 0.5835 and 0.5870, maintaining the overall bearish stance. The pair needs a clean break above these support points to start a sustained rebound, but as long as the pair is below 0.5870, the downward momentum is likely to prevail. FORECAST In the near term, NZD/USD may experience a limited bounce if oversold levels prompt profit-taking or Powell’s speech provides a dovish surprise. A rally back to 0.5835 and perhaps 0.5870 is feasible, although gains are likely to be limited unless general market sentiment turns positive towards risk assets. Any indications of stabilisation from the RBNZ or positive local data would also support the Kiwi. On the negative side, a convincing break below the 0.5800 level would leave the pair vulnerable to further weakness, with the next substantial support at 0.5765. Powdering hawkish statements by Powell or chronic risk aversion in world markets would drive selling pressure on the Kiwi. If short-term bearish momentum continues, the danger of a lengthy decline towards fresh yearly lows would rise, keeping NZD/USD under bearish dominance in the near future.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Edges Up to 0.8050 as US Dollar Strengthens; Market Now Awaits Swiss Trade Balance and US PMIs

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  • August 21, 2025
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USD/CHF edged up to 0.8050 during Thursday’s Asian session as the US Dollar drew strength from the Federal Reserve’s measured approach in its latest FOMC Meeting Minutes. The minutes reflected policymakers’ concerns over ongoing inflation while keeping rates within the 4.25%–4.50% range despite mounting calls for a loosening of policies. Traders, however, are pricing in an 82% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, with markets waiting for clarification from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. From the Swiss side, inflation is still contained below the SNB target of 2%, while the just-imposed 39% US tariff on imports from Switzerland is likely to exert pressure on the export-dependent economy of Switzerland and push the Swiss National Bank to further ease. Coming Swiss Trade Balance data and US PMI readings are still under the spotlight. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Fed’s conservative approach to inflation risks underpinned the US Dollar, as markets now price in a 82% probability of a September rate cut. • Marketers look forward to the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who may bring new policy indications for the September meeting. • A recently introduced 39% US tariff on Swiss imports jeopardizes Switzerland’s export-oriented economy and could force the SNB to further ease. • Swiss Trade Balance numbers and US PMI are under the spotlight for short-term market direction in USD/CHF. USD/CHF is quoting around 0.8050 as the US Dollar gains on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s prudent tone during its July meeting minutes, when inflation risks were given precedence over labor issues. Market sentiment perceives an 82% chance of a September rate cut, and investors are now looking forward to Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for more cues. On the Swiss side, low inflation below the SNB’s 2% target and the imposition of a new 39% US tariff on Swiss imports challenge the export-oriented economy, which could heighten pressure on the central bank to embrace more easing measures. Traders now look to the Swiss Trade Balance data and US PMI numbers for further direction. USD/CHF creeps higher to 0.8050 with the US Dollar finding support in the Fed’s guarded approach to inflation. Investors watch out for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, Swiss Trade Balance figures, and US PMIs for new direction in markets. • USD/CHF hovers around 0.8050, bouncing back from a 0.5% decline in the last session. • FOMC Minutes indicated policymakers were being cautious, focusing more on inflation risks rather than labor issues. • Fed funds futures show an 82% probability of a September rate cut. • Markets hold their breath for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to see policy clarity. • The US applied a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, jeopardizing Switzerland’s export-based economy. • Swiss inflation continues below the SNB’s 2% target, raising expectations for more easing. • Traders look to near-term guidance from Swiss Trade Balance releases and US PMI print. The US Dollar appreciated following the release of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated that policymakers are still cautious, prioritizing inflation concerns in their decisions. While interest rates were unchanged, markets are broadly anticipating a rate cut in September, with traders taking keen interest in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for further policy cues. The prudent stance underscores the Fed’s fine balancing act between inflation risk and economic stability. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the Swiss side, economic woes are mounting with the new 39% US tariff on imports from Switzerland poised to jeopardize the nation’s export-based economy. With inflation well beneath the Swiss National Bank target of 2%, expectations for additional monetary easing continue to be high. Investors will also be paying close attention to future Swiss Trade Balance readings, which will provide further clarity on the state of Switzerland’s economy in resistance to outside pressures. Later in the day, US PMI releases will provide further insight into business activity and the health of the economy overall. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating at around the 0.8050 level following its recent drop, indicating short-term buying interest. The pair is coming across immediate support at around the 0.8020 area, with the next resistance at around 0.8085. A firm breach above this area could lead the way toward 0.8120, while a fall below 0.8020 could see additional downside risks toward 0.7980. Overall, momentum indicators indicate consolidation, with traders waiting for fresh leads from upcoming economic data releases. FORECAST If USD continues to ride on the momentum from the Fed’s dovish policy and upcoming Powell comments at Jackson Hole, USD/CHF may continue its rise above the 0.8085 resistance. Firm US PMI prints would add more weight to the argument in favor of the pair going higher, moving the pair towards 0.8120 and even around short term. Conversely, if Swiss Trade Balance numbers are higher than anticipated or if risk appetite increases, then the Swiss Franc might recover some of its lost ground. A breakdown below the 0.8020 support level might take USD/CHF lower towards 0.7980, with additional losses being potential if expectations of Fed rate cuts in September build.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Falls as Robust US Data Dull Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Sterling Weakens Despite Supportive UK Jobs Data

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  • July 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair fell to 1.3408 in the North American session as better-than-forecasted American economic news boosted the demand for the Dollar and squashed expectations of a soon Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 221K, while retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, both better than predicted and supporting the Fed’s reluctance to ease policy. Hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler contributed to the Dollar’s strength. The UK labor market cooled but not as swiftly as anticipated, providing little encouragement for the Pound. Consequently, Sterling continued to underperform amidst conflicting economic indicators and central bank forecasts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Improved-than-expected jobless claims and retail sales figures favor the US Dollar and lower the chances of a Fed rate cut in the short term. • Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicate interest rates could stay constant despite inflationary fears, particularly from tariffs. • The UK’s more sluggish-than-anticipated cooling in its labor market did not offer sterling any meaningful support, which left GBP/USD vulnerable. • GBP/USD is heading towards crucial support levels at 1.3373, with more downside potential towards 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA of 1.3278 if negative momentum persists. The GBP/USD currency pair was subjected to fresh selling pressure after the release of a robust set of U.S. economic data, which provided added impetus to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on cutting interest rates. With unemployment claims declining to 221K and retail sales increasing 0.6% in June, the numbers hinted at ongoing economic strength in the U.S., further pushing up the Greenback to new monthly highs. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s dovish comments further bolstered the Dollar as she highlighted maintaining rates at current levels in the face of tariff-driven inflation. Conversely, the UK labor market only moderately indicated a slowdown, which was not enough to prop up the Pound, and GBP/USD continued trading around weekly lows at the 1.3400 level. GBP/USD fell to 1.3408 as impressive U.S. jobless claims and retail sales figures boosted the Greenback and dampened rate cut speculation. Aggressive Fed commentary put additional pressure on Sterling, as it struggled even with a relatively resilient UK labor release. • GBP/USD went down to 1.3408 after robust US data boosted the Dollar in the North American session. • US Jobless Claims fell to 221K, better than the predicted 235K, indicating a healthy employment scenario. • June Retail Sales climbed 0.6%, much greater than the predicted 0.1%, bolstering economic strength. • Fed Governor Kugler indicated no hurry to reduce rates, pointing to inflationary pressures and firm jobs. • UK labor data showed slower-than-expected cooling, with the Claimant Count Change at 25.9K. • Sterling remained pressured, unable to gain momentum despite less negative domestic data. • Technical bias remains neutral-to-bearish, with key support at 1.3373 and resistance near the 50-day SMA at 1.3500. The GBP/USD exchange rate reacted to the latest round of economic data, with the U.S. Dollar strengthens after strong performance in jobless claims and retail spending. The initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated, and consumer expenditure witnessed strong growth during June—both indicators that the U.S. economy is still strong. These occurrences, combined with the recent inflation numbers, led investors to re-evaluate the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler echoed this view by asserting that monetary policy is likely to stay stable for the time being considering continued price pressures. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The UK labor market statistics, on the other hand, presented a moderate level of strength, where there was a less-than-anticipated increase in unemployment benefit claims. Nonetheless, the British Pound had little support since broader market sentiment was positive towards the Dollar. Political clarity within the U.S. also came into play, with fears surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s employment status being dismissed by President Trump, taking away one layer of uncertainty. Focus now turns to forthcoming central bank commentary as well as other economic data that can shape currency interactions between the Pound and the Dollar. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has a neutral-to-bearish bias since it is trading close to the lower boundary of its recent range at 1.3400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows persistent bearish momentum that implies that sellers are still in charge notwithstanding sporadic buying interest. To turn the outlook bullish, the pair would have to retake the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3500. Failing that may create room for further losses, with short-term support at 1.3373 followed by the psychological level of 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3278. FORECAST On the other hand, in case of increased bullish momentum, GBP/USD may try to recover towards the 1.3485 level, which was the recent two-day high. A breakout above this resistance could set the stage for a challenge of the 50-day SMA near 1.3500, a key level that may confirm a change in short-term sentiment. Continued advances above this area could prompt additional gains toward 1.3570 and possibly 1.3620, if further supporting UK data or dovish turns from the Fed favor the Pound. On the negative side, sustained Dollar strength and tight Fed policy expectations could drive GBP/USD below near-term support at 1.3373. A breakdown below here would risk further losses down to the 1.3300 psychological level. Should selling continue, the pair could fall further down to the 100-day SMA at 1.3278, with further downside targets at 1.3200 not precluded in a bearish environment.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1800 as US Dollar Strengthens on Robust Job Figures and Powell’s Cautious Note

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  • July 2, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is further falling below the 1.1800 mark as the US Dollar strengthens on the back of solid economic data and a cautious note from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. A steep increase in US JOLTS Job Openings and higher-than-anticipated ISM Manufacturing PMI data have restored investor sentiment in the US economy, upholding the Greenback. On the other hand, dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials and a surprise rise in Eurozone unemployment have dragged the Euro lower. With markets looking forward to the ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls news, bearish technical indicators indicate more downside risk for EUR/USD. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the ADP Employment Change report for June, due to report a 95K increase in jobs, and which will determine the tone before Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • Investors will be watching ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments at the Sintra Summit closely for any new policy indications with creeping Eurozone unemployment. • EUR/USD is gaining more bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with a Head & Shoulders setup looking to target support at 1.1690–1.1650. • Robust US data and Powell’s conservative “wait-and-see” stance remain in favor of the USD, lowering short-term rate cut prospects. EUR/USD currency pair is bearish as the US Dollar strengthens on the back of a robust set of economic data and conservative statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. After briefly recovering above 1.1800, the Euro has turned back, buried by the surprise increase in Eurozone unemployment and dovish rhetoric from ECB officials. Conversely, the US labor market remains resilient, with both JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI beating forecasts. While markets shift their attention to the next big events such as the ADP Employment Change and ECB President Lagarde speech, bearish technical indications point toward potential further EUR/USD decline. EUR/USD extends losses as the US Dollar strengthens on positive job data and Powell’s dovish attitude. Higher Eurozone unemployment and dovish ECB news increase pressure on the Euro. Markets now look to the ADP Employment report and Lagarde’s speech for new direction. • EUR/USD trades below 1.1800, reversing from recent multi-year highs at 1.1830. • US Dollar gathers strength on positive JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also conservative in tone, stressing a “wait-and-see” stance on rate cuts. • Eurozone unemployment rose unexpectedly to 6.3%, weighing on the Euro. • Dovish statements by officials such as Rehn and Centeno on the ECB suggest possible further easing. • Bearish Head & Shoulders formation on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart directs the focus toward a decline to 1.1690–1.1650. • Attention turns to next US ADP report and ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further guidance. The EUR/USD currency pair is under renewed bearish pressure with economic divergence between the Eurozone and the United States being increasingly highlighted. The Euro is negatively influenced by a surprise increase in Eurozone unemployment to 6.3%, in addition to dovish comments from European Central Bank officials who remain worried about chronically low inflation. While German production figures revealed some relief and Eurozone CPI flattened, these were not enough to boost sentiment due to investors’ expectations of a more conservative ECB policy course in the near term. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is strengthening on recent figures that reinforce the solidity of the US economy. Solid job opportunities and a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI have been timed with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovishness at the ECB Forum in Sintra, where he invoked caution to follow data closely prior to making any policy action. With strong labor market data and steadfast inflation indications, the Fed is likely to stay patient on rate cuts, providing the USD with a steady tailwind. Focus then shifts to the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which may offer more insight into the outlook for the US economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is seen gathering bearish momentum following its inability to hold above the 1.1800 mark. The pair has broken below the Head & Shoulders neckline on the 1-hour chart and is now poised for a trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling lower into negative ground, supporting the bearish view. A confirmed decline below Tuesday’s low at 1.1760 would leave the door open toward the pattern’s measured target at 1.1690. Below that, focal support is between Tuesday’s June 27 low at 1.1680 and Monday’s June 26 low at 1.1650. On the positive side, there is resistance at 1.1810 and 1.1830 and stronger resistance at 1.1850 indicated by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. FORECAST Should EUR/USD be able to stay above the 1.1760 level and recover bullish strength, the pair may try to retest the 1.1800 psychological level. A break above 1.1810 and sustained would reveal the recent high at 1.1830. Additional bullish pressure may drive the pair to the 1.1850 resistance, indicated by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the June 26–30 rally. A positive change in Eurozone fundamentals or dovish US labor statistics can serve as a catalyst for higher highs. On the negative, inability to hold the 1.1760 support would speed the bearish correction. Breaking below this level would affirm the Head & Shoulders formation and aim for the next significant support at 1.1690. Ongoing pressure selling might take EUR/USD towards the 1.1680–1.1650 region, where buyers might intervene to stabilize the pair. Poor Eurozone economic data or better-than-anticipated US labor statistics would tend to strengthen the downward path.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Under Pressure: Hawkish Fed Weighs on XAU/USD Despite Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainties

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  • June 20, 2025
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Gold prices continue to trade under selling pressure and are on the cusp of weekly losses, powered largely by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause and the stronger US Dollar. Even while backed by supportive drivers like elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and existing trade uncertainties—notably regarding U.S. tariff threats—safe-haven demand for gold has been unable to muster much potency. Although these risks might cap further downside, technicals indicate the possibility of a more severe correction unless there is robust dip-buying. General market sentiment remains cautious as investors balance meager rate cut hopes against rising global risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve’s inflation hawk and diminished expectations for rate reductions continue to underpin the US Dollar and put gold prices under pressure. • Increased Iran-Israel conflict, with potential U.S. intervention, would rekindle demand for the gold safe-haven. • Threatened U.S. tariffs, especially in the pharma space, and Trump’s “liberation day” deadline of July 9 can cause market volatility. • Monitor significant support levels around $3,323-$3,322 and resistance around $3,375 and $3,400 for short-term directional indications. Gold prices continue to be underpinned as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias supports the US Dollar and reduces the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and anticipated trade uncertainties, especially surrounding future U.S. tariffs, are helping support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Investors are sitting on the sidelines, weighing scant rate cut hopes against the threat of an escalation of broader conflict in the region. The technical picture also leaves the way open for further decline unless major support levels trigger fresh buying interest. Gold lingers under pressure from a hawkish Fed and firm US Dollar, on course for weekly losses. Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty should cap downside, but technical pressure remains. • Gold price under strain from Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause. • US Dollar strengthens, diminishing demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. • Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven demand. • Trade uncertainty rises ahead of the July 9 deadline for U.S. tariffs. • Fed forecasts two rate cuts by the end of 2025, capping gold potential. • Technicals signal further downside to the $3,300 support level. • Resistance at $3,375 and $3,400, with a possible retest of the $3,451 high if mood changes. Gold prices remain under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone that has supported the US Dollar’s strength. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it indicated reduced rate cuts in the future, that dulled investor demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. Such a policy sentiment has outshined some market-friendly factors such as persistent geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties and has held gold on a weaker path during the week. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, increasing world risks are providing a counterweight to bearishness. Mounting tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel have raised regional stability fears, which could attract investor interest back to safe-haven assets. Furthermore, threatened U.S. tariffs and trade policy changes under the Trump administration are introducing new uncertainty into the markets. These considerations may inspire hedge positioning by investors, as the wider risk environment remains extremely fluid. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS XAU/USD has fallen below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which indicates short-term weakness. The price is moving towards significant support close to the lower edge of a short-term uptrend channel, at about the $3,323–$3,322 region. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are weakening, while on hourly charts there is increasing bearish momentum, indicating the possibility of further falls. On the other hand, initial resistance is evident at $3,374–$3,375, followed by $3,400; a prolonged break above this level may lead to a retest of the recent high of around $3,451. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions do not abate and trade uncertainties further increase, gold will likely recapture its safe-haven status, driving fresh purchasing interest. The sustained break above the $3,375 resistance level would then pave the way for a rise towards the $3,400 psychological mark. Should bullish momentum continue to gather pace, the price would revisit the recent high of $3,451, and even target the all-time high of $3,500 in the near future. On the negative side, sustained strength in the US Dollar driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy can continue to put pressure on gold. A break below the $3,323–$3,322 support zone could trigger intensified selling, driving prices towards the $3,300 level. If bearishness persists, the metal can move into a further correction phase, especially if risk mood improves and rate cut hopes are confined.

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