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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls on Modest USD Strength, but Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Provide Support

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  • August 4, 2025
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Gold prices started the week lower, pulling back from recent highs as the US Dollar recovered some ground against a modest rise in Treasury yields. But the negative for the precious metal seems to be in short supply given rising market hopes for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, political tension over the Fed’s independence, and rising geopolitical tensions following the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia. All this continues to support gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, and the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish even with short-term ups and downs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing speculation of a rate cut continues to limit USD strength and underpins gold prices. • Deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia increases safe-haven demand in the face of increasing global uncertainty. • Deterioration in weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers and revisions signal a slowing economy, supporting gold. • Look for support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,370–$3,400 for possible breakout or pullback signals. Gold prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week as reduced Treasury yield pressures allowed the US Dollar to recover some ground. This slight fall aside, the forward-looking precious metal continues to be supported by increasing anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has moderated wider USD advances. Further, geopolitical uncertainties—specifically the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia—are also lending additional support to gold’s safe-haven status. Traders are now looking to future US economic data and risk sentiment for guidance on the next move for XAU/USD. Gold price inches lower on modest USD strength but is underpinned by expectations of Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical tensions. Market attention now turns to release of US economic data and overall risk appetite for further guidance. • Gold price retreated from more than one-week high at $3,369 on fresh USD buying. • Modest recovery in US Treasury yields underpinned the US Dollar, driving gold prices lower. • September Fed rate cut hopes remain to cap non-yielding gold’s downside. • Soft US jobs data, including below-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls, fueled rate cut expectations. • Political tension surrounding the independence of the Fed is suppressing aggressive USD rebound. • Geopolitical concerns escalated after the US sent nuclear submarines to the vicinity of Russia. • Technical support remains at $3,300, and a breach above $3,370 may lead to $3,400+. Gold still draws the interest of investors amidst a complicated combination of economic and geopolitical events. Although the metal started the week weaker, its long-term attraction is firm because market belief is increasingly building that the Federal Reserve is moving towards the start of a rate-cutting cycle, perhaps in September. The latest US jobs report, which recorded a significant slowdown in job recruitment and a rise in unemployment, has added to the perception that the US economy is slowing. This supports the case for softer interest rates, which have traditionally helped gold since it does not pay interest and tends to thrive in low-rate conditions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, political uncertainty is growing. The impromptu removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics by President Trump and the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor have spooked the market with fears over the independence of the Fed. The incidents raise the wariness of investors and improve the attraction of safe-haven instruments such as gold. Geopolitical tensions also continue to mount, with the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia in response to aggressive rhetoric, adding further to concerns of international instability. These considerations together create a solid fundamental underpin for gold over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the resistance level of $3,335 recently and also above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Oscillators are becoming positively more bullish, indicating ongoing dip-buying interest near support levels. Primary support now resides in the vicinity of $3,340–$3,338, with additional buying anticipated near $3,320 if that does come under test. On the positive side, a continued move through the new high of $3,369–$3,370 would seal the bullish trend and leave the way open toward the psychological $3,400 level, potentially retesting the all-time high around $3,500 if support persists. FORECAST If positive sentiment prevails, fueled by a hoped-for September Fed rate cut and increased geopolitical tensions, gold might reattack the $3,370 resistance level. A breach above this region may trigger a retest of the $3,400 psychological level. Continued buying and positive risk-off sentiment might even propel the metal to the $3,434–$3,435 obstacle, and ultimately, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 is still in play if uncertainty in the world continues. Conversely, if the US Dollar continues to appreciate further based on more robust-than-expected economic data or a more aggressive Fed stance, gold could experience selling pressure. Support begins around the $3,340–$3,338 area, which lines up with the 100-period SMA. A firm break below this zone could set further losses in motion towards $3,320, and sustained losses might take the price towards the make-or-break $3,300 level. A violation of this mark could turn momentum in the bears’ direction.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls On US-Japan Trade Deal Optimism, Yet Fed Uncertainty Remains Bullish Hopeful

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  • July 23, 2025
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Gold prices are still in the doldrums even after a fleeting one-month high, due to optimism over a just-announced US-Japan trade agreement suppressing safe-haven buying. Despite positive global risk appetite and a small recovery in the US Dollar, anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve’s cut-rate trajectory and its autonomy remains supportive. Traders are waiting, however, for leading US housing figures and global PMI prints for further guidance. Technically, recent advances above the $3,400 mark indicate bull momentum is still in place, although further consolidation is likely to be seen close to important resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hopes for the US-Japan trade deal continue to drive risk sentiment higher, lowering demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates and fears regarding its autonomy are weakening the US Dollar, lending some support to gold prices. • Gold’s short-term support is at around $3,400, with resistance established around $3,438–3,452. A breakout above would pave the way for retracing the all-time high of $3,500. • Market players are looking at US Existing Home Sales and world flash PMIs for guidance on economic resilience and possible direction in the XAU/USD currency pair. Gold prices are muted as a positive backdrop to the US-Japan trade agreement continues to improve global risk appetite, making safe-haven assets less attractive. In spite of this, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and whether it can maintain its independence remain supportive of the precious metal. Though the US Dollar displays signs of a modest revamp, its general weakness in the face of diverging economic indicators restricts gold’s downside. The traders now wait for crucial data releases such as US Existing Home Sales and world PMIs for new cues that may have an impact on the subsequent directional movement in the XAU/USD pair. Gold price is still in pressure due to positive sentiment from the US-Japan trade agreement lowering safe-haven demand. Uncertainty over the Fed rate-cut trajectory and a weaker US Dollar, however, continue to provide support. Market players now look to crucial economic data for new directional signals. • Gold price fell after reaching a one-month high during the Asian session, dragged down by better risk appetite. • US-Japan trade deal hopes have improved sentiment, lowering demand for havens such as gold. • US Dollar registers a small rebound from two-week lows, imposing pressure on gold in early trading. • Fears about the independence of the Fed and rate-cutting uncertainty are limiting aggressive gains in USD, supporting gold. • Technical breakout above $3,400 indicates underlying bullish momentum in spite of intraday pullbacks. • Resistance is immediate at $3,438–3,452, with scope for a push toward the $3,500 all-time high should it break. • Market participants look to upcoming US housing data as well as global PMIs for new market direction and sentiment guidance. Gold prices continue to come under pressure following the announcement of a wide-ranging US-Japan trade agreement, with the deal, including mutual tariffs and increased market access for major industries like autos and agriculture, having allayed investor concerns and diverted attention from safe-haven assets like gold. The change in sentiment is indicative of increasing enthusiasm regarding global trade stability and calls for investors to explore higher-risk opportunities. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The political tensions in the United States, however, continue to affect market dynamics. President Trump’s frequent demands for reduced interest rates and attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had rekindled fears over the independence of the central bank. The uncertainty further increases with the pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for an internal review of the Fed. All these advances have kept the US Dollar subdued, providing some underlying support to gold in spite of the brightening global atmosphere. Market players now seek shelter in key economic indicators to get further details on the overall outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently broke above the important horizontal resistance at $3,370 and passed the psychological $3,400 marker, which pointed towards bullish strength. Daily chart oscillators are still positive and bear no signs of overboughtness, which implies the possibility of further gains. The nearest resistance is located at $3,438–3,452, with a continuation past that likely setting the stage for the all-time high at $3,500. On the negative, the $3,400 level is now a solid support, followed by the $3,370 zone, which can cap any further pullback unless intense selling pressure surfaces. FORECAST If the bullish impetus holds good, gold may try to stage a new rally towards the near-term resistance levels of $3,438–3,452. The breakout above this area would most likely trigger further buying interest, paving the way for a move towards the psychological level of $3,500 — seen in April. Any further weakness in the US Dollar, dovish Fed speak, or new geopolitical tensions may serve as major catalysts triggering this positive move. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,400 level of support could induce short-term profit-taking and drive gold back to the $3,370 region — which has since become a key support-turned-resistance. A breakdown here could herald a more pronounced corrective cycle, potentially sending the price to the $3,340 level or below. Yet ongoing uncertainty regarding Fed policy and global risk factors might serve to cushion any significant decline in the immediate future.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Above $3,300 on Fed Uncertainty and Tenuous Israel-Iran Ceasefire

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  • June 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) enjoys a modest intraday bullish bias, trading well above the $3,300 level on mixed market directions. Although expectations for impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts keep the US Dollar in check and provide support to the non-yielding metal, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a generally upbeat risk sentiment cap strong upside strength. Lack of confidence in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire introduces a geopolitical risk premium that underlies gold’s safe-haven status. Market participants now look to major US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, jobless claims, and the PCE Price Index, which can offer further guidance for the USD and prices of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • At least 50 bps of Fed rate reductions by year-end are being priced in by markets, with attention on whether July will see a move and the testimony by Powell for additional indications. • Ongoing anxiety regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire and looming concerns about renewed hostilities are continuing to fuel gold’s safe-haven demand. • Traders look to Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the PCE Price Index later this week, potentially altering Fed expectations and affecting USD and gold. • Strong support at around $3,300 with scope for downside towards $3,245 if broken; upside limited near $3,370–$3,400 unless robust bullish momentum is seen. Gold price stays firm above the $3,300 level on Wednesday, buoyed by subdued US Dollar sentiment and persisting geopolitical volatility around the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Although the precious metal is buoyed by safe-haven buying and anticipations of rate cuts by the Fed this year, dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have cooled bullish enthusiasm. Investors seem guarded before critical US macroeconomic releases, such as GDP numbers and the PCE Price Index, which may determine forthcoming Fed policy and, therefore, affect gold’s short-term direction. Gold price remains above $3,300 despite conflicting signals from Fed rhetoric and geopolitical tensions. Soft USD and tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in place to underpin safe-haven demand for the metal. Bulls remain on hold pending crucial US data releases that will determine the direction in Fed policy and gold pricing. •  Markets expect at least 50 bps of rate cuts by end of year, keeping the USD on back foot. •  Additional information from the Fed Chair will provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy direction. •  The major releases such as Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and PCE Index will have an impact on sentiment. •  Any escalation in tensions may push gold demand towards safe-haven. •  Gold’s direction is still very much dependent on USD weakness or strength. •  Keep an eye on price action in the $3,300 support and $3,370–$3,400 resistance areas. • Short-term gold price direction will be influenced by equity market trends and geopolitical announcements. Gold price remains in a modestly bullish stance, underpinned by increasing market optimism that the Federal Reserve can start its rate-cutting journey towards the end of this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s comments in recent times presaged a subtle move towards easing policy, yet investors are still eyeing the general economic context, which indicates decelerating inflation and weakening labor markets. This kindles hopes of policy accommodation, which usually helps non-yielding assets such as gold. Uncertainty in global markets also preserves the safe-haven credentials of gold despite overall sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events also prove instrumental in sustaining support for gold. Although a formal ceasefire has been observed between Israel and Iran, recent cross-border military operations by both nations have thrown its longevity into doubt. The tensions are a promoter of a risk-averse environment, pushing investors to hold on to safe-haven assets. In the meantime, some expectation is building for major US economic data releases this week, which may have implications both for the Federal Reserve’s positioning and subsequent market action. Therefore, gold is still in the spotlight as traders weigh interest rate expectations against continuing geopolitical threats. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price has recently broken below a short-term rising channel, confirming the potential for a change in momentum to the downside. Oscillators on the daily and 4-hourly charts are gaining bearish momentum, reflecting increasing pressure from the bears. The level of major resistance is now close to the $3,368–$3,370 area, which was earlier acting as channel support. Unless bulls overcome this level with strength, any rallies can be met with selling. On the bearish side, a clear break below the $3,300 level can pave the way for fall towards the $3,245–$3,210 support level. FORECAST If the geopolitics further deteriorate or if future US macroeconomic indicators continue to support the expectation of a near-term Fed rate cut, gold may regain positive bullish traction. A follow-through above the $3,370 resistance band could trigger new buying interest, prompting the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. Additional strength above this level may set the stage for a test of the $3,420–$3,450 region, particularly if the US Dollar further depreciates. Conversely, if the ceasefire in Israel-Iran persists and future US economic releases are stronger than anticipated, it might reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. If the price breaks below the support level of $3,300, it would be a bearish indicator and might result in a fall to $3,245. Sustained selling pressure can continue the decline even lower to the $3,210–$3,200 level, while further losses can be envisaged if the US Dollar gains traction or Fed rate cut expectations are diminished.

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