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USD/CHF Flatlines Before US NFP Release as Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Influence Market Sentiment

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair was flat at about 0.8290 in Friday’s Asian session as investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the highly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Hope for prospective trade deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan, together with China’s openness to discussing trade, offered some support to the US Dollar. Nevertheless, fears regarding tariffs’ effects on inflation and growth, as well as disappointing weaker-than-expected US GDP readings for Q1 2025, limited the Greenback’s gains. Also, ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially over Ukraine, may support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, curbing any potential USD gains before the NFP release, which is forecast to report 130K job additions for April. KEY LOOKOUTS •   Later on Friday, the release of the US NFP report is an event to monitor, with a forecast for 130K job additions in April. A deviation from this number could strongly affect USD/CHF. •  The continued evolution of US trade negotiations with India, South Korea, Japan, and China is of paramount importance. Favorable progress may underpin the USD, while setbacks or escalations may undermine it. •  The geopolitical environment, especially in Ukraine, is still a cause for concern. Any further escalation would trigger higher demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, which could weigh on USD/CHF. •  With the US economy shrinking by 0.3% in Q1 2025, market participants will be watching how economic growth issues, as well as inflationary pressures from tariffs, could impact the trajectory of the USD. USD/CHF pair is at the moment in a wait-and-see mode around 0.8290, as the traders wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) later today. The NFP, which is due to reflect 130K jobs added in April, may offer the pair some new direction. On the other hand, softening trade tensions, with possible deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China, can provide some support for the US Dollar. Yet, worries regarding the inflationary and growth effects of tariffs, combined with softer-than-forecast Q1 2025 GDP figures, are capping the Greenback’s gains. Moreover, tensions in Ukraine could fuel safe-haven demand for the Swissy, thereby limiting any USD advance. As a result, traders are following these events closely for any hints regarding the direction of USD/CHF going forward. USD/CHF is steady at 0.8290 prior to the US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is anticipated to show a rise of 130K jobs in April. Hopes regarding relaxing trade tensions can support the US Dollar, but fears over economic growth prospects and geopolitical dangers may cap any gains, thus keeping the Swiss Franc in play as a haven. • The USD/CHF currency pair is flat at 0.8290 as market players wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report release later today. • The April NFP report is likely to indicate 130K jobs added, which may affect market sentiment and the direction of the USD. • Postponed trade agreements between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China could prop up the US Dollar by alleviating trade tensions. • The US economy grew at a 0.3% decline in Q1 2025, softer than forecast, and may hint at growth worries and inflation concerns that will cap USD strength. • Further geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, may result in safe-haven demand, such as the Swiss Franc. • The Swiss Franc may gain as a result of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and cap any potential for the USD to rise. • Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance, sidestepping huge positions prior to the release of the NFP and the possibilities of large market-moving news. USD/CHF is staying firm as the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is on the cards to give clues to the well-being of the US labor market. With modest employment growth expected, the report would be able to influence the movement of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the outlook on US trade relations has improved somewhat, with agreements pending with nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan. This good news in global trade can help turn the market concerns around, providing support for the USD. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView But uncertainty over global economic conditions, especially following softer-than-expected US GDP figures for Q1 2025, still dampens sentiment. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions, like the conflict in Ukraine, also add to a risk-averse mood, supporting demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. While markets wait for the NFP report, most of the attention is still on wider economic and political events that may shape the USD/CHF pair in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF has been ranging around the 0.8290 level, with little price action in the run-up to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The pair is still in a tight range, reflecting market uncertainty before the release of the data. A break above or below the current range may give clearer direction, with resistance likely at 0.8320 and support around 0.8250. Such indicators as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are neutral, indicating that there is no strong momentum either way. Traders will tend to watch the NFP announcement closely for breakout indications or a change in momentum that may have an impact on the pair’s short-term path. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release beats forecasts and reflects better-than-expected job creation, the US Dollar may get some boost, helping USD/CHF move past present resistance at 0.8320. Encouraging news about US trade talks with major nations and relaxation in overall global trade tensions can also bolster the USD. Moreover, any decrease in geopolitical risks, particularly for Ukraine, may translate to less need for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, making the way for the USD to appreciate against the CHF. Conversely, however, if the NFP report fails to impress and shows weaker employment growth, or if fear over US economic growth increases with the latest GDP reports, the US Dollar may have a difficult time

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Currencies

USD/CHF Dives Towards 0.8800 Due to Tariff Tensions and Safe-Haven Swiss Franc Demand

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  • March 11, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fell close to the 0.8800 mark in Tuesday’s early European session, weighed down by increasing fears of a global trade war and increasing safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Market mood shifted risk-averse due to concerns of a US economic slowdown fueled by tariff-related uncertainties, which dented the US Dollar. Investors are also looking at the US CPI inflation data due later this week, which may provide hints on the Federal Reserve’s next policy action. With rate cut expectations mounting and stock market volatility increasing, the Swiss Franc remains a strong safe-haven currency. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors are looking to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which may influence inflation expectations and guide the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate actions. • Escalating global trade tensions have increased demand for the Swiss Franc, which is putting downward pressure on USD/CHF and emphasizing risk-aversion sentiment in the market. • Markets are already factoring in 75 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first cut expected in full by June. • Continued uncertainty about US trade policy under the Trump regime continues to put pressure on the Dollar and sustain safe-haven flows into the CHF. The USD/CHF currency pair is under pressure around the 0.8800 level as rising global trade tensions and safe-haven demand keep the market sentiment. Fears of a tariff-led slowdown in the US economy have dented the US Dollar, while the Swiss Franc enjoys its usual safe-haven status. Markets are closely observing the upcoming US CPI inflation report, which may give key insights about the Federal Reserve’s next policy action, particularly as markets expect several rate cuts in the current year. In the environment of increasing risk aversion and policy uncertainty, the Swiss Franc should remain strong against the Greenback in the near future. USD/CHF hovers near 0.8800 as trade tensions fuel safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US CPI data, which could influence Fed rate expectations and further impact the Dollar’s direction. • USD/CHF weakens near 0.8800 amid rising global trade tensions and risk-off sentiment. • Safe-haven demand boosts the Swiss Franc (CHF) as investors seek stability amid economic uncertainty. • Fears of a tariff-induced US economic slowdown bear down on the US Dollar. • Cautious sentiment prevails in markets due to ongoing policy uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy. • Investors watch for the US CPI inflation reading, which is seen offering new guidance on inflation and Fed policy. • Bets on Fed rate cuts rise, with markets pricing 75 basis points of this year’s cuts. • Volatile equity markets put pressure on the USD, adding to CHF’s strength in a risk-averse climate. The USD/CHF cross has been under fresh pressure, falling to the 0.8800 level as trade tensions rise worldwide and investors turn to safe-haven assets. Fears of a tariff-led slowdown in the US economy have set off risk aversion in the markets, with investors turning to historically safer currencies such as the Swiss Franc. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration has further dampened investor sentiment, causing weakness in the US Dollar. As geopolitical risks rise, market participants are becoming increasingly cautious, preferring to move capital into assets perceived as more stable. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In addition to trade-related concerns, all eyes are now on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which could significantly influence economic sentiment. A gentle inflation reading could contribute to current concerns regarding the health of the US economy and fuel expectations of a policy change by the Federal Reserve. In the meantime, safe-haven flows remain in favor of the Swiss Franc in the face of wider market uncertainty. As investors consider these economic indicators and global events, the currency market remains on edge for any new news on inflation data or trade-related headlines. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is witnessing stiff selling pressure around the 0.8800 handle, which has served as an important support base. A breach of this handle consistently might unleash additional bear momentum down towards subsequent levels of support. To the upside, recovery bids might experience sellers at about the 0.8850–0.8880 mark where the same could resume their return. The general trend is still bearish as long as the pair remains below major resistance levels, which means that sellers are in charge of the market momentum at the moment. FORECAST Unless there is a bearish breakdown in USD/CHF below 0.8800 support level, a rebound over the next few days appears possible. Any recovery could target the immediate zone of resistance close to 0.8850–0.8880. A decisive rise above this will instigate the further upside action, which has the potential to target the psychologically important 0.8900 mark. Some favorable US economic data, notably better-than-expected inflation releases, or improved risk sentiment are some of the factors that will support a reversal of the Dollar and push the pair higher short term. On the flip side, if USD/CHF breaks and holds below 0.8800, it may set the stage for more weakness towards the next support points at 0.8750 and 0.8700. Ongoing safe-haven buying of the Swiss Franc, along with escalating market concerns about US trade policy and economic slowing, may keep the pair in pressure. Moreover, dovish cues from the Federal Reserve or softer-than-anticipated US data would also add to the bearish pressure on the US Dollar, hastening the decline in USD/CHF.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Price Outlook: Fails to Hold Ground Above 0.9000 Due to Dollar Weakness and SNB Policy Rumors

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  • February 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fails to hold ground above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar grapples with weakness in holding its recovery. Although the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to keeping interest rates unchanged, the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, fueled by weak inflation figures, increases the likelihood of negative interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near the 107.00 level, capping the upside for USD/CHF. The technical indicators indicate declining bullish momentum, with the 14-week RSI dropping from the high bullish zone. A clean break above 0.9244 will open the way for a further rise, while a fall below 0.9000 might initiate a deeper slide towards significant support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive fall below this level may cause further weakness, testing the crucial support levels at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates between 4.25%-4.50% favors the US Dollar but caps its upside potential. • Weak CPI data feeds speculation of possible negative interest rates, weakening the Swiss Franc and influencing USD/CHF’s direction. • A move above the October 2023 high may leave the way open towards the significant resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The USD/CHF currency pair is at a crossroads with the inability of the currency to hold on to levels above the psychological mark of 0.9000. The steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve defends the US Dollar, but a decline in the momentum in the Dollar Index (DXY) keeps gains on a leash. While this, coupled with the dovish tone from the Swiss National Bank, fuel rumors of negative interest rates that might further soften the Swiss Franc, the pair is technically due a strong breakout above 0.9244 to continue its rally towards 0.9300 and beyond. A fall below 0.9000 may see it slide further to significant support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. USD/CHF has difficulty staying above 0.9000 as the US Dollar is met with resistance and the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank causes the Franc to weaken. Further gains may be triggered by a breakout above 0.9244, and a fall below 0.9000 can cause a deeper correction. • The pair cannot hold gains above this psychological level as the US Dollar runs out of steam. • Keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by the Federal Reserve favors the Dollar but caps upside. • Soft inflation numbers add to speculation that the SNB could start negative interest rates, which would weaken the Swiss Franc. • The DXY is unable to hold above 107.00 levels, which affect the short-term price action of the USD/CHF pair. • A breakout above this level may signal more advancements to 0.9300 and 0.9342 levels. • A fall below 0.9000 may initiate further weakness, challenging support at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The 14-week RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that bearish momentum in USD/CHF is waning. The USD/CHF currency pair is struggling to hold above the important psychological level of 0.9000, as the US Dollar cannot hold its advance. Though the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its policy of maintaining interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still unstable near 107.00, capping the rally for USD/CHF. The market sentiment has also been affected by fear of future trade policies under former US President Donald Trump, and thus there is uncertainty in currency movements. At the same time, on the Swiss side, also fueling rumor has been soft inflation data that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might drive interest rates into negative numbers in order to avoid prolonged deflation, which could weaken the Swiss Franc further in the short term. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/CHF currency pair cannot maintain above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar is confronted with resistance in the face of a volatile DXY and stable Federal Reserve policy. In contrast, poor Swiss inflation figures have increased speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may drive interest rates into negative territory, further weakening the Swiss Franc. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in the process of consolidating, with major resistance at 0.9244 serving as a critical breakout level for additional gains up to 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.8947 is rising, reflecting long-term bullish inclination. Yet, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the bullish area of 60.00-80.00 into the neutral area of 40.00-60.00, reflecting the loss of upside momentum. If the pair is unable to hold at 0.9000, it may force a downside motion towards major support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. A strong break above 0.9244 or below 0.9000 will set the next major trend for USD/CHF. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair has the potential to move up if it can break above the major resistance level of 0.9244. A clean breakout above this level may initiate a rally towards the subsequent resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still remains in an upward slope, which is an indication of a long-term bull trend. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a stable interest rate policy while US economic fundamentals continue to remain robust, the US Dollar can again strengthen, driving USD/CHF upward. Any indication of additional monetary tightening or hawkish remarks from the Fed can serve as a trigger for a sustained bullish trend. On the bearish side, a breakdown below the psychological support of 0.9000 can indicate a more severe correction in the pair. A break below this point can leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further losses, with important support points at 0.8958 and 0.8900. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped out of its bullish zone, signaling declining momentum, which will put further pressure on the pair downwards. Further, if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not undertake aggressive rate reductions and the Swiss Franc rises due to risk-off sentiment across the globe, USD/CHF can experience selling pressure. Any surprise US monetary policy developments or

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