Forex Trading Tools and Services

Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Hardens as BoJ Policy Divergence and Positive Domestic Data Spur USD/JPY Near 148.00

  • BY
  • September 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Japanese Yen hardens versus the US Dollar as positive domestic data and policy divergence with the Federal Reserve underpin its attractiveness. Japan’s real wages became positive for the first time in seven months, while household spending also indicated an increase, supporting prospects of further normalization in Bank of Japan policy direction. Meanwhile, market speculations about upcoming Fed rate reductions continue to bear down on the USD, pinning down USD/JPY around the 148.00 level. Trade sentiment, in the wake of the US reducing tariffs on Japanese auto imports, also weighs in favor of the Yen, and traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for better guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Strong wage growth and steady inflation above target fuel expectations of an imminent BoJ rate hike. • Markets widely anticipate at least two Fed rate cuts this year, weighing on the USD. • USD/JPY struggles near the 148.00 mark, with 147.40–146.70 seen as key supports and 148.75–149.20 as resistance zones. • The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial in shaping Fed policy expectations and near-term USD/JPY direction. Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar, buoyed by positive domestic news and policy divergence from the Federal Reserve. Japan’s real wages increased for the first time in seven months, accompanied by increased household expenditure, supporting hopes that the Bank of Japan will continue down its policy normalization process. In comparison, the USD continues to come under pressure as markets start to increasingly price in future Fed rate reductions. Contributing to the firmness of the Yen, trade optimism has firmed up after the US announced the reduction of tariffs on Japanese auto imports. With USD/JPY stalled around the 148.00 level, traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for new direction cues in the pair. Japanese Yen holds firm versus the US Dollar as solid domestic data and expectations of BoJ policy improve its prospects. On the other hand, USD is under pressure due to Fed rate cut expectations, keeping USD/JPY subdued near 148.00 levels before the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement. • Japanese Yen gets stronger as positive domestic data improves sentiment. •Japan’s real wages turn positive for the first time in seven months. • Household spending rises in July, reinforcing BoJ policy normalization expectations. • Inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target, supporting a hawkish outlook. • Fed rate cut bets keep the US Dollar under pressure. • US lowers tariffs on Japanese automobile imports, adding to trade optimism. • USD/JPY struggles near 148.00, with traders awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for direction. The Japanese Yen is finding support as new local data points to strength in the economy of Japan. Real wages finally became positive for the first time in seven months, indicating improving household buying power, with spending also showing growth, though below expectations. This reinforces the belief that the Bank of Japan will remain on its path of policy normalization, particularly with inflation remaining above 2% target. Meanwhile, trade sentiment got a boost after the United States dropped its plan to reduce tariffs on Japanese auto imports, easing a major source of worry for businesses and investors. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to find it tough to inspire a robust buying interest with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will soon initiate cutting borrowing costs. Markets are already discounting the likelihood of several rate cuts throughout the year, which has kept demand for USD in check. In this context, market participants are keenly awaiting the publication of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report to get an updated picture of US labor market health and Fed policy direction. The information will probably have a key part to play in determining near-term sentiment around the USD/JPY pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is under intense pressure as the pair fails to maintain itself above the 148.00 level, an important psychological and structural support level. Repeated inability to break through the 200-day Simple Moving Average, located around 148.75–148.80, indicates weak bullish momentum in the short term. A persistent break below 148.00 might open the way towards the 147.40–147.00 area, with further losses revealing the 146.20–146.00 area. On the other hand, a decisive break above the 149.20 resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop, might restore momentum in favor of buyers and clear the way for a move towards the 150.00 psychological level. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to stay above the 148.00 support and break above the 148.75–149.20 resistance area, the onus would shift back in favor of buyers. This would pave the way for a rally to the 150.00 psychological level, with the chances of further upmove towards the August swing high around 151.00. Stricter-than-anticipated US economic figures, especially those in the Nonfarm Payrolls report, might be the stimulus for this rally by momentarily lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a persistent decline below the 148.00 level would strengthen bearish momentum and initiate fresh selling pressure. This would enhance declines towards the 147.40 support level, and then further downwards towards the 147.00 and 146.70 levels. A decisive breach of 146.70 would reveal the 146.20–146.00 area, potentially triggering a more extensive corrective move. Poor US data or more robust hints of BoJ tightening would tend to be drivers towards this downside route.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Holds Gains Amid Weak US Data and Eurozone Uncertainty: Traders Eye Fed and Tariff Developments

  • BY
  • August 6, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD pair is trading within a tight range near recent highs as weak US services sector data and renewed stagflation fears weigh on the US Dollar. While the Euro has gained ground following disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls and PMI figures, it struggles to find strong support amid soft Eurozone retail sales and declining German factory orders. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely watching upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve officials and potential political developments, including speculation over new Fed leadership appointments and tariff threats from former President Trump. Though short-term gains, the overall bearish trend of EUR/USD continues to be in place below the 1.1600 resistance line. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Statements by Federal Reserve officials could provide important guidance on September’s monetary policy choice in light of soft US data and growing stagflation fears. •  Market responses could become more pronounced if Donald Trump publicly nominates candidates for the Fed Governor position or makes suggestions of replacing Jerome Powell, which can potentially erode confidence in the Fed’s autonomy. •  Weak retail sales and factory orders highlight sluggish momentum in Europe’s economy, limiting upside potential for the Euro. • The EUR/USD pair faces strong resistance at the 1.1600 level; a breakout could shift momentum higher, while failure to hold above 1.1530 risks a deeper pullback. EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating near recent highs as disappointing US services data and rising fears of stagflation continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Although the Euro has benefited from the greenback’s weakness, lackluster Eurozone retail sales and a further drop in German factory orders have limited its upside momentum. Traders are still in wait-and-see mode as they look for new hints from the future speeches of Federal Reserve officials and prospective policy changes, especially in light of rumors over Donald Trump’s role in future Fed nominations. Technically, the pair is still capped below the major resistance at 1.1600, maintaining the larger bearish trend for the time being. EUR/USD trades sideways near recent highs as weak US data pressures the Dollar, but soft Eurozone figures limit the Euro’s strength. Markets await Fed officials’ comments and political developments for direction, with key resistance seen at 1.1600. •  EUR/USD trades near 1.1580, consolidating gains from last week’s US NFP-driven rally. •  US Services PMI fell to 50.1, signaling near-stagnant growth and raising stagflation concerns. •  Eurozone retail sales increased merely 0.3%, missing forecasts and demonstrating subdued consumer demand. •  German factory orders fell 1%, adding further evidence of economic softness in the region. •  Speculation regarding Trump’s Fed nominees adds political risk, dampening USD confidence. •  Technical resistance around 1.1600 is a significant hurdle; a break higher may spark fresh upside momentum. •  Investors watch Fed speakers for hints on future interest rate action in the wake of weakening US data. The EUR/USD currency pair is steady as investors are weighing weak macroeconomic reports from the United States and the Eurozone. The US Dollar has been pressured in the wake of disappointing services PMI readings, indicating weakening activity, falling employment, and increasing prices—reviving stagflation worries in the world’s largest economy. Meanwhile, market sentiment is also wary of speculation regarding possible Federal Reserve leadership changes, with former President Donald Trump said to be looking to replace mainstays at key roles, a move that may cast doubt on the central bank’s independence. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the Continent side, the Euro has not seen much support despite the Dollar’s weakness. Retail sales data in the Eurozone was weaker than expected, while German factory orders declined for the second consecutive month, signaling continued economic troubles in the region. Traders are closely watching the bigger picture of politics and economics, such as global trade tensions and yet-to-be-said comments from Federal Reserve officials, which may push investor mood and market direction in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is ranging narrowly just below the crucial resistance level at 1.1600, which has been capping upside efforts since the first week of August. The pair is still in a larger bearish trend that started in mid-July, with momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD becoming flat, indicating market indecision. A break above 1.1600 can have the EUR/USD test the 1.1700–1.1710 range, then trendline resistance at 1.1750. On the other hand, support is at 1.1530, with the further downside potentially targeting 1.1460 and 1.1400 if bear pressure resumes. FORECAST If EUR/USD can break and hold above the crucial resistance at 1.1600, the pair has a good chance to develop bullish momentum and aim for the next upside zone at 1.1700–1.1710, where former support levels could now serve as resistance. Another push through this region could see a test of the trendline resistance at 1.1750, particularly if further US economic data disappoints and Federal Reserve officials indicate a dovish bias. Meanwhile, a failure to overcome 1.1600 may continue to leave the pair under stress, with early support at 1.1530. A fall below this level could spark a more significant correction to 1.1460, then the 1.1400 region, seen in early August. Rising US Dollar strength, a hawkish tone from the Fed, or increased Eurozone economic weakness may promote the downside acceleration.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains at Two-Week Highs as Risk-On Mood Bolsters Sterling; UK PMI Figures in the Spotlight

  • BY
  • July 24, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD remains close to two-week highs at 1.3580 in a generally softer US Dollar and a risk-on market mood that is bullish. Supportive risk-on sentiment stems from hopes for emerging trade deals between the US and major trading partners like the European Union and Japan that have lifted investor mood. In the meantime, future UK economic releases—especially the S&P PMI and Retail Sales—are in focus and can determine the next direction of the pair. Traders are also eyeing Bank of England policy advancements, as expectations for 2025 rate cuts modestly ease. KEY LOOKOUTS • Thursday’s release should indicate slight manufacturing and services recovery, which can boost GBP sentiment. • The currency is still supported by wider USD softness under risk-on sentiment and decaying Fed-related fears. • US-EU and US-Japan trade pact progress may impact overall market tone and risk appetite. • Traders are also looking for further clues on BoE’s rate trajectory and GILTS sales interruption amid subdued demand. GBP/USD is holding firm around 1.3580, underpinned by better global risk sentiment and a weaker US Dollar. Expectations of a breakthrough in US trade talks with the European Union and Japan have buoyed market sentiment, supporting the Pound to hold onto gains. Investors are monitoring Thursday’s UK S&P PMI figures closely, which may provide new insight into the condition of the UK economy. Also, speculation concerning the policy stance of the Bank of England and the temporary halt in long-term GILTS sales provides further interest for traders looking to determine the Sterling’s short-term direction. GBP/USD is close to two-week highs in light of widespread US Dollar weakness and enhanced risk appetite. GBP/USD awaits UK PMI releases and BoE policy cues for the next move. • GBP/USD is close to 1.3580 support, remaining near two-week highs in Asian trading hours. • Decreasing US Dollar provides a more than welcome boost to the pair as risk-on moods dominate global markets. • US-EU trade negotiations and agreement of a 15% tariff with Japan boost morale. • UK S&P PMI releases on Thursday may offer some new economic indications. • Friday’s UK Retail Sales will likely bounce back with the support of improved weather. • BoE stops GILTS sales temporarily due to scarce demand from pension schemes. • Rate cut hopes for 2025 have eased slightly but continue to be in the view. GBP/USD remains a focus as the global market mood has improved, with investors optimistic about possible trade deals between the United States and major global partners such as the European Union and Japan. The news about the US and EU getting closer to a deal with 15% tariffs on EU products, while also recently agreeing to a tariff deal with Japan, has increased optimism regarding more seamless global trade relations. This wider optimistic sentiment across world markets is supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the British Pound, assisting it to remain strong against the US Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the UK itself, market operators are keeping a keen eye on forthcoming economic data releases, particularly the S&P PMI numbers due out on Thursday. These are forecast to show modest gains in manufacturing as well as the services sector, providing a hint about how well the UK economy is doing. Retail sales figures out Friday, meanwhile, may indicate a pickup, fueled in part by seasonal weather patterns. The Bank of England’s recent decision to suspend long-term GILTS sales is also indicative of changing market forces, with conventional buyers taking little interest. All of these trends are influencing UK monetary policy expectations among investors heading into 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is trading firmly close to the 1.3580 level, holding its ground near a two-week high. The pair is holding above important moving averages, reflecting underlying short-term bullish momentum. If the price holds above the 1.3550–1.3560 support area, it may set the stage for a rally towards the psychological resistance point at 1.3600 and possibly higher. Any inability to hold above the near-term support, though, might tempt marginal pullbacks, although the bigger picture trend is positive as long as the pair remains over its recent breakout levels. FORECAST If the current risk-on mood continues and UK economic data comes in as strong as, or better than, expected, GBP/USD would potentially push its gains to the 1.3600 psychological resistance and beyond. Sustained positive surprises in the coming S&P PMI and Retail Sales numbers would have a good chance of solidifying confidence in the UK economy, providing further impetus for the Pound. Also, sustained weakness in the US Dollar, fueled by better global trade prospects and calm investor attitude, may deliver the needed tailwinds for the pair to continue on the upswing. Conversely, any UK macroeconomic data disappointment or abrupt change of mood in the market toward risk aversion may prompt a retreat in GBP/USD. If investors become increasingly worried about future Bank of England rate action timing or effects or if geopolitics interrupts US trade talks, the pair could come under pressure. A close below the 1.3550 support level might pave the way for more significant corrections, particularly if the US Dollar starts gaining ground on better home stimuli or more aggressive Fed rhetoric.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Gains on Strong Chinese Figures and USD Weakness Before US CPI Release

  • BY
  • July 15, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar (AUD) rose higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, boosted by better-than-predicted economic indicators in China—Australia’s major trade partner—and weakening USD before the release of the US CPI. The Q2 GDP in China rose 5.2% year-over-year, beating estimates, and Industrial Production also surpassed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions such as threats from ex-US President Trump of tariffs weighed on the US Dollar, together with market prudence leading up to the critical inflation data. Local confidence in Australia slightly improved but concerns persist regarding the RBA’s rate outlook, with inflation risks and global uncertainties still in the spotlight. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Consumer Price Index report next is being closely monitored by investors, which would potentially affect the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in the future and US dollar strength. • Even though rates remained unchanged in July, the prospects of an impending August rate cut still loom, particularly with inflation threats and subdued productivity in focus by RBA officials. • Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese can influence future trade and drive AUD sentiment. • Trump’s suggested tariffs on Russia, EU, and Mexico and secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers could drive global market volatility and shape USD movements. Australian Dollar is strengthening against the US Dollar, supported by positive economic reports from China and a muted greenback in anticipation of the release of critical US inflation data. Recent better-than-expected GDP and Industrial Production figures from China have enhanced sentiment toward the AUD, as Australian trade connections are strong with China. In contrast, geopolitical tensions—such as Trump’s recent tariff threats and international trade tensions—have weighed on the USD. Locally, Australia’s consumer confidence registered a slight increase, but doubts continue regarding the next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as inflation. The focus now shifts to the coming US CPI numbers, which have the potential to be a turning point for the short-term trajectory of the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar surged as optimistic Chinese economic figures improved investor mood, while the US Dollar declined in anticipation of crucial CPI releases. Geopolitical tensions and RBA policy uncertainty are still shaping market action. US inflation releases are awaited for additional guidance on AUD/USD direction. • AUD/USD up as impressive Chinese GDP and Industrial Production statistics improve optimism. • China’s Q2 GDP up 5.2% YoY, better than expectations of 5.1%, which supports the Aussie Dollar. • US Dollar falls in anticipation of significant CPI numbers, providing AUD/USD with upside tailwind. • Geopolitics escalates with Trump threatening fresh tariffs against Russia, EU, and Mexico. • RBA leaves rates unchanged, with potential cut in August due to inflation fears and poor productivity. • Australia’s Consumer Confidence increased modestly by 0.6% in July, reflecting modest optimism. • AUD/USD technicals exhibit bullish bias, trading close to 0.6550 in an uptrending channel. The Australian Dollar was supported on Tuesday by solid economic data from China—Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year was higher than market forecast, while Industrial Production was also better than expected. These supportive data points boosted market sentiment in the Australian economy, given its high trade linkage with China. Also, a minor increase in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence showed cautious optimism from households, even as cost-of-living pressures persist and the interest rate outlook remains uncertain. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, world geopolitical events have given rise to a more conservative trading climate. Threats by the former US President Donald Trump to apply very harsh tariffs on Russia, along with so-called secondary tariffs on nations that import Russian oil, have boosted fears about growing trade tensions. Additional suggested tariffs on imports of the European Union and Mexico have contributed to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US government registered a June budget surplus powered mainly by record customs duty receipts, underscoring the increasing influence of trade policy on economic performance. These events continue to influence market mood throughout the lead-up to the US CPI report. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is exhibiting a mild bullish inclination as it hovers around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6550, aided by an uptrend channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the neutral 50 level, indicating that buyers continue to have a small advantage. A break above the recent high of 0.6595 would open the doors for additional gains towards the upper end of the channel at 0.6690. On the bearish side, support is immediately available at the lower edge of the upward channel at 0.6520, with more robust support at the 50-day EMA at 0.6488. FORECAST As long as the positive momentum prevails, particularly if it is supported by a softer US CPI figure or better risk appetite, the AUD/USD rate may try to break above the recent high of 0.6595. A breach of this level may draw fresh buying interest, boosting the pair to the upper edge of the rising channel in the region of 0.6690. Moreover, favorable news from the ongoing China-Australia trade talks or the easing of international tensions may further support the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if US inflation figures are hotter than anticipated, this could revive expectations for extended higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, bolstering the US Dollar and applying pressure on AUD/USD. A fall below near-term support at 0.6520 would risk deeper losses, potentially down to the 50-day EMA around 0.6488 or even the three-week low of 0.6485. Increasing geopolitical tensions or Reserve Bank of Australia dovish hints may also put pressure on the Aussie in the short term.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Increases and Geopolitical Trade Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

  • BY
  • July 1, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices are moving higher, reaching a three-day high of around $3,333 on increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased geopolitical trade uncertainties. The US Dollar dipped to its lowest point since February 2022, as the downwardly pressured economic data, fears of a widening fiscal deficit, and Trump’s hawkish trade approach before the July 9 tariff expiration day weighed. Safe-haven interest in gold is also underpinned by political tensions and volatility around key US macroeconomic events during the week, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and highly expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are factoring in a 74% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, with scope for easing as early as July, which continues to sustain gold prices. •  The USD has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 on the back of growing fiscal worries and dovish expectations of monetary policy. •  Trump’s latest tariff threat on several nations may ignite safe-haven buying and push gold even higher. •  Major releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be keenly observed for new direction in USD and gold price movements. Gold prices are still rising as investors react to increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global trade tensions. The weakening US Dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, reflects market concerns over the Fed’s potential policy easing and the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold are uncertainties surrounding former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, with the July 9 deadline looming. Traders also look toward critical US economic reports this week—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Nonfarm Payrolls report—that may continue to impact gold’s near-term trend. Gold prices rise with Fed rate cut expectations and trade uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand. A softer US Dollar and threatened tariffs by Trump further bolster the bullish case. Traders now look to critical US data, including the NFP report, for additional guidance. • Gold prices increase for the second day in a row, hitting approximately $3,333 on the back of firm safe-haven demand. • Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut before September increase gold and push the US Dollar down. • The USD declines to its lowest level since February 2022 as a result of fiscal worries and poor economic data. • Trump’s fresh trade warnings prior to the July 9 deadline contribute to global uncertainty and underpin gold. • US Treasury Secretary hints at potential tariff increases from 11% to 50%, reinforcing market conservativeness. • Market participants are looking for important US macroeconomic releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and NFP. • Technical resistance is around $3,350–$3,370 and major support is at $3,245–$3,200. Gold remains a focus for investors as world markets respond to a combination of economic and political events. Increasing bets the Federal Reserve will follow quickly with rate cuts in coming weeks have reduced the US Dollar, boosting the allure of gold as a non-yielding haven asset. In the meantime, recent indicators of shrinking consumer spending and worries about a growing federal deficit are putting further pressure on the central bank to step in, supporting the market’s dovish bias. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a significant part in favoring gold. Former President Donald Trump has intensified his trade rhetoric, threatening higher tariffs on nations that don’t seal agreements before the July 9 deadline. Those threats and the prospect of rising trade tensions have contributed to investor wariness. As markets expect major US economic releases this week, gold is preferred by traders who want stability in the face of economic and policy-related uncertainties. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is depicting a consistent bullish inclination while it is trading close to a three-day high level of $3,333. The nearest resistance can be seen in the $3,324–$3,325 range, a breakout above which might pave the way for additional upsides towards the $3,350 and $3,370 levels. Long-term strength above these levels can push the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, initial support comes at $3,300, followed by stronger support around $3,276 and $3,245. A fall below these levels may switch momentum back in the favor of the bears and reveal the $3,210–$3,200 zone. FORECAST Gold could pierce near-term resistance at the $3,325 level and target the next significant barrier at $3,350. A clear breach above this level could set the stage for the $3,370 area, and eventually, the psychological $3,400 threshold. Sustained dollar weakness, added assurance on Fed rate cut expectations, and growing worldwide trade tensions would more than likely drive further rises in gold prices. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,300 support level may invite a bearish pullback, revealing the $3,276 and $3,245 levels. A break below these supports might speed up the fall towards the $3,210–$3,200 range. Further downside risk might emerge if future US macroeconomic indicators surprise to the upside, alleviating pressure on the Fed and bolstering the US Dollar, hence diminishing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

Read More
Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises Above 0.6000 as New Zealand Trade Surplus Supports Kiwi, Trade on US Dollar Fades on Ceasefire Hopes

  • BY
  • June 25, 2025
  • 0 Comments

NZD/USD pair rose above the 0.6000 level, continuing its successive winning rally for the third consecutive session, supported by New Zealand’s stronger-than-anticipated trade surplus and a weak US Dollar. New Zealand’s trade surplus increased to NZD1,235 million in May, ahead of market expectations and lifting the Kiwi. At the same time, relaxing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and better risk sentiment pressured the safe-haven US Dollar. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at postponing interest rate reductions, market attention was still on favorable trade headlines and Middle Eastern geopolitical news, providing support to the bull trend in NZD/USD. KEY LOOKOUTS • A better-than-anticipated trade surplus of NZD1,235 million for May boosted the Kiwi, indicating strong export performance. • The USD came under pressure as global risk appetite improved with the Iranian-Israel ceasefire. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled rate cuts could be pushed back to Q4, injecting caution among USD traders even though there are inflationary worries. • While tensions were relaxed, uncertainties remain over the sustainability of the ceasefire, keeping markets vigilant for any updates. NZD/USD currency pair was following its rising trend, breaking above the psychological level of 0.6000 due to favorable economic data and a decrease in geopolitical tensions boosting the New Zealand Dollar. New Zealand’s trade surplus in May was higher than anticipated, at NZD1,235 million, which served to enhance investor sentiment towards the Kiwi. Simultaneously, the US Dollar continued to weaken as a result of decreased safe-haven demand after a cease-fire was announced between Iran and Israel. Ignoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding postponing rate cuts till the fourth quarter, overall risk-on sentiment was in favor of the NZD, and hence the pair remained strongly bid in early European trading. NZD/USD climbed over 0.6000, boosted by New Zealand’s higher-than-anticipated trade surplus and improving global risk appetite. The US Dollar continued to be weak with the calming of Middle East tensions and cautious signals from the Fed about future rate cuts. • NZD/USD climbed over 0.6000, its third straight session of gains. • New Zealand’s trade surplus was NZD1,235 million, ahead of the NZD1,060 million anticipated for May. • The exports rose to NZD7.7 billion, while imports rose to NZD6.4 billion, indicating robust trade activity. • The US Dollar was under pressure as safe-haven demand eased amid a reported ceasefire between Iran and Israel. • US Fed Chair Powell hinted that interest rate cuts would be delayed and, most probably, postponed until the fourth quarter. • Market mood strengthened as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East temporarily subsided. • Technical indicators indicate further upside in NZD/USD, with resistance around 0.6075 and support at 0.5980. The New Zealand Dollar picked up momentum following the nation’s announcement of a better-than-projected trade surplus of NZD1,235 million in May. This was due to a resilient economy and good export activity, which reinforced investor appetite. An increase in exports as well as imports reflects a good trade sector, further improving the economic profile of New Zealand. The Kiwi drew purchasing in worldwide currency markets from the positive trend. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, de-escalation in the Middle East was one reason that had helped to shift market mood, lowering demand for classic safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar. The Iran-Israel ceasefire announcement, confirmed by US President Donald Trump, served to help calm nerves and promote risk-taking in all markets. In the meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s reserved approach to cutting interest rates signaled policy restraint, but had little to boost the US Dollar while markets were attentive to geopolitical stability and economic news. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is clinging on above the important psychological level of 0.6000, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. The duo is supported by a rising trendline and is trading well above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, continuing the positive bias. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are also pointing higher but below overbought levels, indicating scope for further appreciation. A break above 0.6030 could pave the way to the next hurdle at 0.6075, while support in the immediate vicinity is at 0.5980. FORECAST If positive risk sentiment continues and the economic momentum of New Zealand keeps going strong, NZD/USD can continue its rally to 0.6075, which is the next significant resistance level. If a break and close above 0.6075 are achieved, the road will be open for a rally to the 0.6120–0.6150 zone, supported by ongoing Kiwi-buying on trade reports and subsequent USD weakness from delayed easing by the Fed. Alternatively, if geopolitical tensions flare up or US economic figures surprise on the higher side—leading to a turnaround in the US Dollar—NZD/USD would retreat towards the 0.5980 support level. A break below 0.5980 would risk further pullbacks to 0.5930 and possibly to the 0.5900 level, where buyers may come in to protect the psychological floor.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges on Ceasefire Hope and Weaker Inflation Figures

  • BY
  • June 25, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar (AUD) rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, supported by the removal of geopolitical risk and weaker-than-anticipated domestic inflation figures. The U.S. President Trump-announced Israel-Iran ceasefire improved risk appetite in the world and weakened the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, underpinning the risk-sensitive AUD. Meanwhile, Australia’s May CPI rose by 2.1% year-over-year, below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in July. As markets price in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut, the AUD/USD pair climbed above 0.6500, showing persistent bullish momentum backed by favorable technical indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are implying an 80% chance of a 25bps rate cut after softer-than-anticipated CPI numbers and lackluster GDP readings. • The AUD is also reactive to geopolitics; any continuation in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire can continue to support risk appetite. • Comments from Fed Chair Powell imply no near-term rate cuts, but mixed comments from other Fed officials can bring volatility to the USD. • AUD/USD is threatened by resistance at the June 16 high, with a breach above potentially validating sustained bullish momentum. The Australian Dollar continues to appreciate against the US Dollar on the back of calming geopolitical tensions and weakening domestic inflation data. Global risk sentiment has been aided in recent days by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has diminished the safe-haven characteristics of the USD and increased the risk-sensitive AUD. At the same time, Australia’s May CPI was lower than forecast at 2.1% year-over-year, affirming the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations as early as July. While markets are price-accustomed for monetary easing and technicals are reflecting bullish strength, the AUD/USD pair is holding strongly north of the 0.6500 level. Australian Dollar extends gains on better risk sentiment after the Israel-Iran ceasefire and lower Australian inflation numbers. The markets now price in a July rate cut from the RBA, with AUD/USD breaking above the 0.6500 mark. Technicals still show bullish momentum. • AUD/USD rises above 0.6500 on improved risk appetite and declining geopolitical tensions. • Israel-Iran ceasefire improves market mood, deters safe-haven US Dollar. • Australia’s May CPI increased 2.1% YoY, weaker than expected 2.3% and previous 2.4%, making rate cut expectations more certain. • 80% probability of 25bps RBA rate reduction in July are priced in by markets, with combined 73bps cuts being expected by the end of the year. • Fed Chair Powell indicates delayed rate cuts, likely in Q4, while other Fed officials are less clear in their views. • AUD/USD remains above the 9-day EMA, with buy signals from RSI and ascending channel pattern. • Major resistance at 0.6552 and 0.6570, with nearest support at 0.6486 and 0.6450. The Australian Dollar remains firm, boosted by better global risk appetite and a weaker inflation outlook domestically. The news that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has relaxed geopolitical tensions and generated hope in financial markets. This has caused demand for the safe-haven currency like the US Dollar to fall, boosting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. The ceasefire has also brought optimism for possible diplomatic advancements, including resumption of nuclear negotiations, further bolstering market confidence. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Locally, the economic figures from Australia have lent further support to the Aussie Dollar. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, softer than forecast. This combined with earlier published subpar GDP readings has helped fuel market expectations of a July interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Market participants now price in several rate cuts by year-end. The mutual support of reducing inflation pressures and a favorable international environment has assisted in maintaining the recent trend of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair continues to have a bullish bias since it trades above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and continues to be within an uptrend channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 level but has not entered the overbought zone, signaling improving positive momentum without reaching overbought levels. If the pair sustains its move above 0.6500, it could retest the recent high of 0.6552, followed by potential resistance near 0.6570. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486, with further downside limited by the lower channel boundary and the 50-day EMA near 0.6450–0.6438. FORECAST If the bullish pressure persists, AUD/USD is set to revisit the recent high of 0.6552, the seven-month high. Breaking above it could pave the way for a move towards the upper edge of the rising channel of about 0.6570. On-going risk-on appetite, combined with hopes of policy easing from RBA, could continue to propel price higher, especially if geopolitical tensions remain mild and market optimism continues to increase. On the flip side, if the pair does not hold above 0.6500, near-term support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486. A strong break below here might turn bearish momentum, taking AUD/USD to the lower end of the rising channel at 0.6450. Lower levels may be seen testing the 50-day EMA at 0.6438, if US Dollar demand picks up with the release of better economic data or with dovish Fed speak.

Read More
Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Stregnths as Diverging BoJ-Fed Policies Pressure USD/JPY Towards 145.00

  • BY
  • June 24, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Japanese Yen continues gaining against a declining US Dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair towards the 145.00 level amid increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). As the BoJ is set to raise rates again on the back of lingering inflation and robust domestic data, the Fed is more and more intimating future rate reductions, perhaps beginning in July. This dichotomy has taken a heavy toll on the USD, making the lower-yielding JPY more attractive. Further uplift for the Yen is also provided by hopes of a possible US-Japan trade agreement and continued safe-haven demand in the face of geopolitical events, such as a tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing expectations of Bank of Japan rate hikes against possible Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on USD/JPY. • Market sentiment would change depending on the result of ministerial-level negotiations on or about June 26, which could have implications for trade flows and the strength of the JPY. • Jerome Powell’s testimonial before Congress, as well as other speeches from FOMC officials, will be eyed for hints on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory in the next few months. • Traders will be watching if the pair falls convincingly below the 145.00 psychological level support, which could fuel more bearish momentum. The Japanese Yen is holding steady against the US Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair hovering near the crucial 145.00 support level as markets respond to differing monetary policy expectations. Expectations of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates in the face of persistent inflation and better economic data stand sharply contrasted with increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, potentially as early as July. This divergence still undermines the USD and props up the JPY. Further fueling the Yen’s popularity are hopes for an imminent US-Japan trade deal and ongoing safe-haven appetite, in spite of worldwide geopolitical shifts. Japanese Yen extends gains against a weaker US Dollar, pushing USD/JPY toward the 145.00 level. Divergent BoJ-Fed rate expectations and safe-haven buying continue to underpin the Yen. Traders now look to important US data and Powell’s testimony for direction. •  The Japanese Yen advances sharply, pulling USD/JPY towards the 145.00 psychological level. •  BoJ will likely raise rates further, while the Fed is inclined to cut rates, perhaps as early as July. •  Japanese core inflation at or above the 2% target keeps the argument for tighter monetary policy alive. •  Upbeat Japanese PMI data enhance optimism over the outlook in Japan. •  Conflicting US PMIs and soft Fed rhetoric put pressure on the US Dollar. •  Expectations of a US-Japan free trade agreement before the July 9 deadline to impose tariffs add strength to the Yen. •  USD/JPY looks to break below the 145.00 level; resistance is observed around 146.00 and 147.00 levels. The Japanese Yen draws robust demand as investors react to a changing global monetary environment. With Japan’s underlying inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target for more than three years and recent PMI readings registering strength, markets are growing optimistic that the Bank of Japan can go ahead with further rate hikes. In contrast to the U.S., where uneven economic data and weakening labor forecasts have encouraged Federal Reserve policymakers to begin reducing the central bank’s stimulative monetary policy in the near term. Such divergence in central bank policies is sending investors to the Yen, which appears to be a safe and more appealing currency in the face of current conditions. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On top of the Yen’s strength is rising optimism of a US-Japan trade deal, as Japan’s Economy Minister plans high-level talks with U.S. officials. The fact that these talks come early, prior to an imminent tariff deadline, indicates an active attempt to put trade tensions on the backburner, viewed favorably by the market. Additionally, the Japanese Yen has not been significantly impacted by recent geopolitical events, such as a reported Israel-Iran ceasefire, further solidifying its safe-haven status. All of these combined point to a robust fundamental foundation for the Yen moving forward. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has fallen below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) to indicate short-term bearish pressure. Yet, the fall has come to an impasse around the 145.40 zone, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward move, and hence, a critical support zone to monitor. A clean break below this zone would set the stage for a drop to the 145.00 psychological level, which might unleash further bearish momentum. On the plus side, resistance is evident at 146.00 supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and a move above it would switch attention to 147.00–147.45. Interim mixed signals from momentum indicators imply that traders will be awaiting confirmation before entering strong directional positions. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair holds above the 145.00 level of support and resumes its uptrend, a short-term rebound can send the pair as high as the 146.00 resistance area, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A decisive breakout above this resistance may pave the way for additional gains towards 146.70–146.75 and possibly even to the 147.40–147.45 region. Continued buying interest above these levels might take the pair to the 148.00 psychological mark and the May peak around 148.65. Conversely, a convincing breakdown below the 145.00 psychological level might strengthen the bearish outlook and provoke fresh selling. This could propel the pair into a more pronounced correction towards the 144.50 support level, then 144.00. If downside pressure persists, the next significant target may be 143.30–143.00, which are former consolidation areas. The overall trend may become increasingly biased towards sellers if fundamentals and sentiment remain in favor of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar.

Read More
Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Poised to Extend Rally Toward 0.6100 on Weak US Data, Bullish Momentum

  • BY
  • June 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

NZD/USD currency pair rallied to a seven-month high at around 0.6055, on the back of widespread strength in the New Zealand Dollar and weakness in the US Dollar despite persisting US-China trade tensions on weak US economic data. The Kiwi remained upbeat despite sustained US-China trade tensions, drawing strength from declining US Treasury yields and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Technically, the pair is close to a bullish breakout through the consolidation range, with leaders such as the 20-day EMA and RSI hinting at upward momentum. A sustained break above 0.6050 might pave the way for a rally towards 0.6100 and further. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A break above this level might initiate bullish momentum towards 0.6100 and 0.6145. •  Any additional softness in US data can boost bets on a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar. •  Escalating tensions might affect risk sentiment and indirectly burden the NZD given New Zealand’s trade relationships with China. •  The bullish flag pattern, increasing 20-day EMA, and RSI above 60.00 all indicate further potential to go higher. NZD/USD pair maintains its rally, hitting a new seven-month high of around 0.6055 as the New Zealand Dollar trounces peers. The strength holds despite persistent US-China trade tensions, demonstrating the Kiwi’s resilience in a world filled with uncertainty. Subpar US economic data, such as weak ADP employment and ISM services data, has weighed on US Treasury yields and stoked hopes for a possible Fed rate reduction, further eroding the US Dollar. Technically, the couple is set to report a bullish break out of its latest consolidation range with momentum indicators such as the RSI and 20-day EMA favoring the move higher. A clean break above 0.6050 could set the stage towards the 0.6100–0.6145 resistance area. NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055 due to US Dollar weakness and healthy Kiwi demand. Bullish technical indications point towards a near-term breakout towards 0.6100. Weak US data and expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to pressure the Greenback. • NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055, propelled by general Kiwi strength. • Weak US economic indicators (ADP jobs, ISM Services) pressure US Treasury yields and the USD. • Speculation of Fed rate cut weighs on the US Dollar Index around 98.60. • US-China trade tensions continue, but the NZD stays resilient to potential threats. • Breakout expected technically, as NZD/USD nears the upper end of a bullish flag pattern. • RSI rises above 60, and the 20-day EMA steepens, indicating bullish momentum. • Next resistance levels are 0.6100 and 0.6145, while major support is at 0.5846. The NZD/USD pair has gained strong traction, reaching a seven-month high as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms amid a backdrop of global uncertainty. Despite ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, the Kiwi has shown resilience, supported by investor confidence in New Zealand’s economic stability. Statements from the previous US President Donald Trump on how hard it is to get a trade deal done with China have raised geopolitical concerns without suppressing demand for the NZD. This level of strength is particularly surprising considering New Zealand’s close economic relationship with China, and it shows the market’s faith in the Kiwi currency. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar is under pressure from soft local economic data. The most recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for May missed expectations, which raised doubts regarding the health of the US labor market and service sector. These reports have resulted in lower US Treasury yields and heightened speculation regarding monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in future meetings. In turn, investors are turning away from the USD, and this provides additional support to NZD/USD appreciation in the larger market environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is showing robust bullish momentum as it nears the upper limit of a Bullish Flag pattern, traditionally a continuation signal that foretells additional upside. The pair has moved out of its range of consolidation between 0.5846 and 0.6024, and this points to the possibility of an extended rally. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pointing higher at 0.5925, supporting the upward trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved past the 60.00 threshold, indicating building buying pressure. In the event that the pair remains above the level of 0.6050, it may reach the next significant resistance points of 0.6100 and 0.6145. FORECAST NZD/USD can see further upside if it continues above the 0.6050 level. A breakout above this level, supported by good technicals and weak US Dollar sentiment, could see the pair towards the next hurdle of 0.6100, then 0.6145. Ongoing weak US economic news, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and calm risk appetite would also see the pair see the bullish path through. Conversely, if NZD/USD cannot maintain a level above the 0.6050 region and comes under renewed pressure from external risk factors—like rising US-China trade tensions or higher-than-expected US data release—the pair may retreat. A fall below the May 12 low of 0.5846 would leave it vulnerable to further downside towards the 0.5800 psychological level, with further support at the April 10 high of 0.5767.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Moves Back Towards 0.6500 as Soft US Data Deters Dollar Strength

  • BY
  • June 4, 2025
  • 0 Comments

AUD/USD currency pair moved back higher on Wednesday, moving back towards the 0.6500 level as the US Dollar fell back after weaker-than-anticipated economic data. Even with the news that Australia’s GDP grew at only 0.2% in Q1 and saw its business activity barely move in May, the Australian Dollar picked up following the deterioration in the Greenback. US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI both came in below expectations, indicating a deceleration in the US economy and stoking speculation of a Federal Reserve policy change. The pair’s rally shows the market’s responsiveness to US macroeconomic data, with more to come before Australia’s trade numbers and the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS • A vital determinant that may impact Fed rate expectations and trigger meaningful USD movement. •  Could offer short-term guidance on the AUD based on export result and trade surplus data. • A significant psychological and technical level; a clean breakout might indicate additional bullish pressure. •  Market sentiment for a dovish tilt may continue to press on the US Dollar if weak data continues. AUD/USD pair is displaying strength, rebounding against the critical 0.6500 level as the US Dollar falters with dismal economic reports. Disappointing employment figures from the ADP and an unexpected weakening in the ISM Services PMI have created doubts regarding the vigour of the US economy, fueling speculation regarding a possible policy change from the Federal Reserve. Even though Australia’s own weaker GDP growth and muted PMI readings failed to make a dent, the Australian Dollar recovered later from early losses on technical support around the 0.6450 level. Attention now turns to subsequent Australian trade data and the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may provide the pair with fresh impetus. AUD/USD recovered to around 0.6500 as the US Dollar softened on weak jobs and services data. In spite of Australia’s poor GDP, the Aussie was supported by technical buying and USD weakness. Traders now look for Australia’s trade data and the US NFP report for direction. • AUD/USD recovered back to 0.6500, recovering losses from weak Australian GDP data. •  US Dollar lower following underwhelming ADP employment (37,000 vs. 115,000 anticipated) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 anticipated). • Australian Q1 GDP eased to 0.2% QoQ, the weakest expansion in three quarters, below forecasts of 0.4%. • S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs indicated limited growth, with readings hovering marginally above 50. • Technical floor at 0.6450 remained in place, triggering fresh AUD buying interest. • DXY (US Dollar Index) fell below 99.00, indicative of broad USD weakness in the face of weak US data. • The next major move in the pair is most likely to be influenced by upcoming Australian trade data and US Nonfarm Payrolls. The Australian currency strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, primarily fueled by a weakening Greenback in the wake of softer-than-projected US economic data. The ADP Employment Change report showed a sharp deceleration of hiring, with private companies adding just 37,000 jobs in May — the weakest in more than a year. Further, the ISM Services PMI dipped into contraction ground for the first time this year, an indication of a larger moderation in the services sector. These points have provoked alarm regarding the health of the U.S. economy and heightened market speculation surrounding a possible change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, Australia’s domestic data showed a mixed reading. Although GDP growth eased to 0.2% for the first quarter, the lowest rate in three quarters, the economy maintained its record of unbroken expansion. The most recent PMI readings revealed marginal movement in business activity, and overall indicative of a generally slow but stable economic climate. As focus shifts now towards Australia’s next trade balance and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, market players continue to watch closely how changing economic indicators will influence central bank projections and currency action over the next few days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is pointing towards a rebound after it encountered solid support around the 0.6450 level, which has served as a floor in successive sessions. The pair is currently hinting at testing the 0.6500 psychological resistance, a level that has halted rallies on several occasions, meaning that a decisive breakout above it may pave the way for further gains. Momentum tools such as the RSI are slowly shifting into positive territory, reflecting renewed buying demand. But persistence above 0.6500 is the key to establishing a bullish breakout, while a failure to break this level might lead to further consolidation around the range thus far. FORECAST AUD/USD exchange rate manages to move above the 0.6500 resistance level, it might initiate further bullish momentum, particularly if future releases from Australia indicate a higher trade surplus or in case the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes short. A breakthrough above this psychological level might unlock the way to the next resistance around 0.6550 or further, as sentiment towards the Australian Dollar improves. Further deterioration in US economic data could also generate speculation regarding further Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting the pair. To the downside, a failure to break the 0.6500 barrier could produce fresh selling pressure, with the pair likely to retest support around the 0.6450 area. A better-than-expected US jobs report or more hawkish Fed commentary might revive demand for the US Dollar, taking AUD/USD down. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair might drift towards 0.6400, particularly if Australian trade data disappoints or global risk sentiment deteriorates.

Read More