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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Fails to Maintain Gains as Subdued Trading and US-China Trade Tensions Mount

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  • April 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) was subdued on Friday despite positive signals from US President Donald Trump about the possibility of reaching a trade agreement with China that would be sealed within the next three to four weeks. While the AUD/USD currency pair had been on a seven-day winning streak, trading volumes were subdued on account of the Good Friday holiday, and worries regarding the economic effects of tariffs on the US kept the US Dollar under pressure. Even these events notwithstanding, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to future interest rate moves and mixed economic data, such as a marginal increase in Australia’s unemployment rate, dented the AUD’s performance. The duo is trading close to the psychological 0.6400 mark, as market players anxiously await developments in further trade talks and signs of global economics. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players will keenly watch any advancement in the US-China trade talks, especially if a trade pact in the coming three to four weeks is imminent, as it would have a bearing on the AUD, given Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China. •  US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and labor market indicators, such as jobless claims, will be instrumental in determining the direction of the US Dollar. Better-than-anticipated data might favor the USD, which may cap AUD gains. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative stance towards interest rate actions and its evaluation of economic uncertainties will be instrumental for AUD movements. The rate of future rate cuts, if any, and their size might affect investor attitudes towards the currency. • Being Australia’s biggest trading partner, China’s economic performance—e.g., GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales—will keep influencing the AUD, especially with the recent optimistic growth in China’s economy surpassing expectations. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was downbeat on Friday despite encouraging news from US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of a trade agreement with China within the next few weeks. Trading was generally subdued on account of the Good Friday holiday, with market players monitoring the on-going US-China trade talks and their possible influence on the global economy. Though the AUD had been on a seven-day rising streak, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious approach to interest rate hikes and mixed economic indicators, such as a marginal increase in unemployment, kept its performance subdued. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around the psychological level of 0.6400, and the direction is still unclear as market participants wait for further news in both international trade negotiations and local economic indicators. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was subdued despite hope from US-China trade negotiations, with market activity slowed down by the Good Friday holiday. The AUD/USD currency pair fluctuates around the 0.6400 level, confronted by conflicting economic indicators and ambiguity both from world trade negotiations and local statistics. •  The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained sedate despite encouraging news from US President Donald Trump on US-China trade negotiations. • The trading activity was muted by the Good Friday holiday, diminishing volatility in the markets. • Trump remained hopeful that the United States and China could reach a trade agreement within three to four weeks, something that could impact the AUD. • The US Dollar (USD) was weakening with fears over the economic effects of tariffs and inflation risks. • The latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia reflected continued uncertainty regarding interest rate changes in the future. • The unemployment rate of Australia increased marginally to 4.1%, while employment change was below expectations, which further created uncertainty regarding the AUD. • The AUD/USD currency pair is around 0.6400, with important resistance at 0.6408 and support at 0.6311, reflecting likely price action. The Australian Dollar (AUD) registered minimal movement despite a positive comment by US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of a trade agreement with China. Trump was optimistic that a trade deal would be reached within the next three to four weeks, which increased expectations of a positive effect on global trade. Nevertheless, market activity was quiet because of the Good Friday holiday, which decreased trading volumes and volatility. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Against these events, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopted a prudent view regarding the nation’s economic scenario. Although recent economic statistics reported varied results, including a modest rise in the jobless rate and less-than-anticipated change in employment, the RBA reiterated uncertainty over upcoming interest rate decisions. Consequently, the performance of the AUD continued to come under stress, as traders keenly observed global trade talks along with domestic economic readings. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar (AUD) against the United States Dollar (USD) is exhibiting a bullish inclination, with the AUD/USD pair trading above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above the neutral 50 level. These signals indicate positive short-term upward momentum. Yet, the pair is confronted with crucial resistance around the psychological 0.6400 level, with additional hurdles at the four-month high of 0.6408. On the negative side, the nine-day EMA at 0.6311 and the 50-day EMA at about 0.6283 serve as immediate support levels, which may assist the pair in holding its present range unless there is a major break below these levels, which may indicate a change in market sentiment. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) may experience upward momentum if US-China trade negotiations move in a positive direction. Any major breakthrough in the trade deal, as suggested by US President Trump, would be a positive boost for global sentiment and Australia’s economy, given its robust trade relationship with China. Also, if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delays rate cuts, it would bring some stability to the AUD. Better-than-expected economic reports in Australia, like firm employment numbers or a decrease in the rate of unemployment, may also continue to boost the currency’s potential for gains. Downside threats to AUD come from overall global uncertainties, especially if US-China trade talks breakdown or do not yield an agreement. Deteriorating US Dollar, as a result of persistent inflation and economic issues, could

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Remains Close to Five-Month Highs Due to US Trade Policy Uncertainty and RBNZ Easing Hopes

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  • April 18, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues near its five-month highs, trading around 0.5970, as investors pay close attention to US trade policy developments, especially given New Zealand’s substantial export relations with China. In spite of a recent surge, the New Zealand Dollar is rangebound due to anticipation of additional monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which is expected to reduce rates in May. US trade tensions and the fear of the economic effects of tariffs on China have seen a weakening US Dollar, driving the NZD higher. At the same time, US economic indicators revealed a drop in initial jobless claims, but an increase in continuing claims, further affecting market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any change in US trade policy, particularly with regards to tariffs on China, could have a major impact on the NZD/USD pair. With New Zealand having a strong export relationship with China, any increase or decrease in trade tensions will be closely monitored. • Hopes of further monetary easing from the RBNZ, potentially in the form of a May rate cut, may bear down on the New Zealand Dollar. Traders will monitor any official commentary or economic releases that signal the central bank’s next action. • Ongoing economic metrics, specifically labor market indicators such as jobless claims, will give indications of the strength of the US economy. A softer-than-anticipated US economy might add extra pressure on the US Dollar and give extra room for NZD upside. • In light of prevailing market volatilities, any shift in global risk sentiment, for example, fears surrounding the economic impacts of US tariffs or geopolitical pressures, may impact investor demand for riskier currencies such as the NZD. NZD/USD pair remains close to five-month highs at about 0.5970 as investors continue to watch events regarding US trade policy and their potential implications on New Zealand’s economy. The attention of the market is centered around US-China trade tensions, considering that New Zealand has a huge export relationship with China. The New Zealand Dollar is also under pressure due to anticipation of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and an anticipated rate cut in May. The US Dollar has been on the back foot with worries regarding the economic impact of tariffs and recent US labor market statistics, indicating a reduction in initial jobless claims but an upsurge in continuing claims, contributing to the uncertainty. As volume has been sparse to date given the Good Friday holiday, NZD/USD will likely realize higher levels should the US Dollar soften further but there is a great deal hanging on the further progression of trade policy and the unfolding of economic fundamentals in the days ahead. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to trade close to its five-month highs around 0.5970 as concerns over US trade policy rise and anticipation of further monetary relaxation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand grows. The New Zealand Dollar is bolstered by a weaker US Dollar as trade tensions and economic indicators continue to affect market sentiment. • The NZD/USD currency pair is trading close to its five-month high, at 0.5970, following seven consecutive days of increases. • Market participants are keenly observing US trade policy news, especially with regards to China, since New Zealand’s economy is greatly dependent on exports to China. • US-China trade tensions may impact the NZD/USD pair, particularly following US President Trump’s statement regarding the possibility of not imposing additional higher tariffs on China. •  Recent US economic statistics, such as a fall in initial jobless claims and a rise in continuing claims, are influencing market sentiment and supporting a weaker USD. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to further ease monetary policy, with markets already pricing in a rate cut in May, which may pressure the NZD. • The US Dollar has weakened on fears over the economic consequences of tariffs, offering a chance for the NZD to firm up. • Volumes in trading are bound to be light because of the Good Friday holiday, which might result in lesser market volatility in the short term. NZD/USD currency pair is trading around its five-month highs as of now, indicating a spell of relative stability in spite of continued global uncertainty. Investors are especially interested in the evolution of US trade policy, with keen interest in the possible effects of trade relations between the US and China, in light of New Zealand’s high export connections with its biggest trading partner. While the New Zealand Dollar has been able to remain robust, much of its movement is influenced by external forces, including changes in US economic strategy and general market sentiment. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, sentiment around the monetary policy moves by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is shaping the outlook for the New Zealand Dollar. With inflation remaining within the target band for the central bank, there is speculation that more easing measures might be in store. This interplay, together with a normally subdued trading session on account of the Good Friday holiday, indicates that while there is conservative optimism surrounding the NZD, its future directions will be greatly dependent on both global trade evolution and domestic economic choices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD pair is testing resistance around the five-month high of 0.5979, and it looks promising to see further potential for upside if the price can continue above this point. The pair has been exhibiting steady upward motion during the last week, with gains for seven straight days, which may be a sign of a bullish trend. Yet, as the pair lingers around crucial resistance, the traders will keenly observe for a breakout or a pullback. Support levels at 0.5900 may serve as a cushion on a reversal, while any change in market mood, especially in relation to US trade policy or the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy direction, may drive the pair in the short term. FORECAST NZD/USD pair may experience additional upside if the US

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Commodities Gold

Gold Hits All-Time High as US-China Trade War Fosters Global Run to Safety

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  • April 12, 2025
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Gold jumped to a record high of $3,245 as rising trade tensions between the US and China shook global markets, pushing investors into safe-haven assets. The yellow metal registered more than 2% gains following China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs and the US Dollar Index falling to a 35-month low of 99.01. In spite of higher US Treasury yields and mixed economic reports, such as weaker producer inflation and decreasing consumer sentiment, recession concerns and inflation uncertainty spurred additional demand for gold. As the uptrend remains firmly in place, the market is now looking to the $3,250 and $3,300 levels as it prepares for further volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • Since crossing the all-time high of $3,245, gold prices are now looking to breach the $3,250 and $3,300 resistance levels amid ongoing market uncertainty. • Increased tensions following China’s 125% counter-tariffs and the US raising tariffs to 145% are set to maintain risk-off sentiment high. • Increasing inflation expectations and escalating recession concerns, underscored by weaker consumer sentiment and cautious Fed policy expectations, remain bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal. • The decline in the USD Index to a 35-month trough of 99.01 fuels gold’s rally, with ongoing falls set to support bullion demand. Gold continued its history-making rally as rising trade tensions between China and the US helped drive a rush into safe-haven assets on a global level. The yellow metal broke the $3,245 barrier supported by a plunge in the US Dollar Index to a 35-month low of 99.01. Investors fled to bullion when China struck back at the US by imposing 125% tariffs after Washington boosted duties on Chinese imports to 145%. Even with the increase in US Treasury yields and conflicting economic news — such as a decline in producer inflation and weakening consumer sentiment — concerns over an impending recession and increased inflation expectations maintained the bullish momentum in gold, now targeting the $3,250 and $3,300 resistance levels. Gold rallied to a new record high of $3,245 as the US-China trade tensions escalated, leading to a global rush for safe-haven assets. A declining US Dollar and growing recession concerns further added to the metal’s bullish strength, with investors now targeting the $3,250 and $3,300 levels. • Gold prices hit an all-time high of $3,245, recording more than 2% gains amid heightened US-China trade tensions. • China retaliated with 125% tariffs against the US raising duties to 145%, triggering global market volatility. • Safe-haven demand increased as recession concerns escalated, driving gold’s rally in spite of rising US Treasury yields. • The USD Index plunged to 99.01 — its lowest since almost three years ago — strengthening gold’s bullish breakout. • The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted sharply, indicating increased economic pessimism and inflationary concerns. • Large US banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs indicated growing recession likelihood as global uncertainty continues to mount. • Gold is solidly in an uptrend, and traders are eyeing a breach above $3,250 with a possible charge towards $3,300. Gold has surged to an all-time high of $3,245 due to the escalating US-China trade war, which triggered a global rotation towards safer assets. Following US tariff increases, China struck back and added 125% tariffs on US goods, a move that generated a climate of increased uncertainty, further escalating demand for the precious metal. Amidst the jittery market and fear of a slowdown in the economy, investors turned to gold as they perceived it as a safe haven of value in the midst of the chaos. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US dollar lost considerable strength, with the Dollar Index dropping to its lowest point in almost three years, contributing further to the rally in gold. US economic sentiment also suffered, as inflation expectations increased and consumer sentiment hit rock bottom. All of these variables combined to establish an environment of trepidation, as investors flocked to the safety and stability that gold historically offers amid periods of geopolitical and economic tension. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The recent price action of gold has been strong, breaking above major resistance levels at $3,100 and $3,200 to record a new all-time high price of $3,245. The uptrend is still in place, with bulls eyeing the $3,250 and $3,300 levels as possible breakout points. In the event of a pullback, support comes in at the $3,200 level, with the next major level at $3,176. As long as gold continues to be on an upward trend, investors are bullish on more gains, especially if the current resistance points are broken. The strength of gold’s rally is highlighted by its ability to stay above key support levels even in the face of overall market volatility. FORECAST Gold’s price will continue to go up in the near future, fueled by continued geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. As the US-China trade war continues unabated and concerns over inflation are still elevated, demand for safe-haven currencies such as gold is likely to continue. The weakening US currency and the expectation of a slow-down in economic growth are bound to fuel the rally in gold, driving prices to new levels of resistance around $3,250 and $3,300. Investors looking for security during uncertain times will continue to prefer gold, making it a likely candidate to make even more gains. On the other hand, if gold can’t sustain its current rhythm, it could face a correction, especially if the global economy brightens or trade tensions dissipate. A sudden spike in the US dollar or an unforeseen change in Federal Reserve policy would put downward pressure on gold. In this scenario, gold could find support near the $3,200 mark, with subsequent drops possibly challenging the $3,176 or $3,100 levels. Eroding investor sentiment in gold as a safe-haven investment could also bring about a retreat, particularly if market conditions become stable.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Glitters at Record Highs as US-China Trade War and Fed Cut Speculation Fuel Rally

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  • April 11, 2025
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Gold prices are climbing near record highs at about $3,220 as tensions in the US-China trade war escalate and speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts rises to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. The US Dollar remains weakening, and foreign investors find gold increasingly appealing, while softer-than-anticipated US inflation readings have made the case for monetary easing as early as June even stronger. In spite of a brief tariff reprieve for most US trading partners, the sudden spike in tariffs on Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, further boosting gold’s bullish trend. With technicals signaling further upside, gold may be set to test the $3,250–$3,300 level in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Momentum remains positive as the metal teases lifetime highs. A break above $3,250 on a sustained basis could set the stage for $3,300 and higher. • Weaker US inflation data spurs speculation of Fed rate cuts from June, with markets pricing up to 100 bps of cuts by year-end. • China’s retaliatory duties and the aggressive tariff increase of Chinese products by the US are escalating worldwide economic concerns, fostering safe-haven demand. • The DXY keeps declining, trading close to 100.20, as investors respond to trade volatility and mixed economic signs. Gold prices still fluctuate around historic highs at $3,220 with market sentiment remaining fueled by a combination of economic and geopolitical issues. The increasing US-China trade war, defined by reciprocal tariff increases, has increased worldwide uncertainty, prompting investors to turn towards safe-haven assets such as gold. While simultaneously, gentler-than-anticipated US inflation figures have enhanced hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts beginning as early as June, fueling the rally of the metal even further. The weakening US Dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, joins the positive sentiment. With technical indicators still pointing toward upside space, gold may be in line to test the pivotal resistance point at $3,250 and possibly target $3,300 in the near term. Gold prices fluctuate near all-time highs of $3,220, supported by increasing US-China trade tensions and heightened hopes of Fed rate cuts. The weakening US Dollar and safe-haven demand still drive the bullish momentum of the metal. Focus now shifts to the $3,250 resistance level for the next break-out. • Gold prices are trading near all-time highs of $3,220 in the wake of increasing global uncertainty. • The heightening US-China trade conflict has prompted investor flight to safe-haven assets such as gold. • China responded with a 125% duty on US goods following the US imposition of a 145% charge on imports from China. • Weaker US inflation data has reinforced hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions from June. • The US Dollar continues to deteriorate, making gold more desirable to foreign investors. • Policymakers at the Federal Reserve worry about reconciling inflation restraint with a weakening growth in the economy. • Gold is still in high demand as a protection against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold prices are attracting firm investor attention as worldwide economic tensions escalate, led by the deepening US-China trade war. The most recent round of tariff hikes — with the US increasing duties to 145% on Chinese imports and China hitting back with a sharp 125% tariff on US goods — has introduced a new degree of uncertainty into world markets. These trends have renewed fears of dampening global growth and possible dislocations in international trade, causing investors to flock to safe havens such as gold, which historically does well during periods of geopolitical tension. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the allure of gold is the changing economic outlook in the United States. Economic indicators most recently provided were softer than anticipated, solidifying expectations the Federal Reserve could start reducing interest rates as soon as June. The lower rates make assets that don’t pay interest, such as gold, more appealing since the cost opportunity of holding them is reduced. Coupled with a soft US Dollar and general concerns over economic deceleration, these forces are fueling rising demand for gold, making it a sought-after hedge in the uncertain world today. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is firmly bullish-trending, with the daily chart registering continuous upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels, indicating considerable buying interest yet potentially flashing signs of exhaustion if the rally is not paused. Key levels of support have moved higher, showing strong demand on dips. While near-term resistance is observed around the $3,250 psychological level, a decisive break above this level may spur a new round of buying demand. On the downside, any corrective falls are set to find support around $3,200 and lower still at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which means the general trend is still very much in favor of bulls unless the levels are broken convincingly. FORECAST Gold is set to continue its rally in the near term courtesy of a combination of factors such as geopolitical tensions, the weakening US Dollar, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate reductions. If macroeconomic sentiment remains unclear and inflation keeps declining, gold may experience more investment inflows in search of shelter. A break above the psychological $3,250 level can pave the way for more advances, with the $3,300 level seeming like a reasonable medium-term objective. Ongoing safe-haven demand and global risk aversion might maintain pressure on the metal to rise. In spite of the powerful momentum, gold is subject to potential downside risk if any sudden pickup in US-China trade tensions or a better-than-anticipated recovery in US economic data were to occur. This would potentially lift the US Dollar and lower the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts, both of which could become bearish for gold prices. On the other hand, if the ongoing rally is followed by profit-taking or technical indicators signal signs of being overbought, a short-term correction to $3,200 or even $3,000 cannot be eliminated. But such dips can be interpreted as buying opportunities, provided the overall economic situation remains weak.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Approaches 1.3050 as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key PPI Data Amid Easing Inflation and Trade Shifts

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  • April 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD is gaining strength, nearing the 1.3050 level, as the US Dollar continues to lose strength in light of easing inflation and changing trade patterns. A lower-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, with headline inflation falling to 2.4% year-over-year, has tempered the greenback’s attractiveness, leading investors to wait for forthcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) releases and consumer sentiment surveys. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to approximately 100.20, indicating broader market unease regarding the domestic economic outlook. Also, the recent relaxation of global trade tensions—despite a sharp rise in tariffs on Chinese imports—has bolstered risk sentiment in favor of the British Pound. Market expectations are now pointing toward a cautious rate-cut trajectory by the Bank of England, with an update in May looking increasingly probable. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are keeping a close eye on March’s Producer Price Index and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings for additional insight into inflation patterns and consumer sentiment. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen close to 100.20 after softer-than-expected CPI numbers, maintaining pressure on the greenback against major currencies. • Bank of England rate cut expectations in the markets continue to support a phase of gradual relaxation, with possible quarter-point reductions expected in May, August, and November. • The 90-day US tariff pause for most partners, contrasted with higher tariffs on Chinese imports, continues to shape global risk sentiment and currency flows. Markets are looking for a few key drivers of the GBP/USD pair’s recent strength. Focus now shifts to the coming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers, both seen to offer new information on inflationary pressures and consumer sentiment. The US Dollar continues to suffer, with the Dollar Index staying close to 100.20 after a below-forecast CPI reading for March. In contrast, Bank of England rate-cut expectations are still in place, with markets anticipating a probable move in May, followed by possible cuts in August and November. Also, changing global trade flows—dramatized by the US relaxing tariffs on most partners while steeply increasing them on Chinese imports—are influencing investor sentiment and buoying risk-sensitive currencies such as the British Pound. GBP/USD pair is still going higher as the US Dollar declines on the back of weaker inflation reports and risk-off market sentiment. Investors now await major US PPI and consumer sentiment releases to guide them. Hopes for gradual BoE rate reductions are also in support of the Pound. • The pair is trending higher, securing its fourth successive daily gain. • The DXY drops to about 100.20 in the wake of fears over weak inflation and uncertainty in the economy. • March CPI increased 2.4% YoY, less than the 2.6% expectation and down from February’s 2.8%, indicating easing inflation. • Core inflation fell to 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, missing the 3.0% expectation. • Investors look to March PPI and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment for additional economic indicators. • The US imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports but suspended increases for most partners, reducing overall trade tensions. • Markets expect three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year, the first in May, then in August and November. The British Pound is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes due to recent economic and policy news. One of the main drivers underpinning the Pound is the slowdown in inflation in the United States, with the Consumer Price Index for March revealing a significant slowdown from recent months. This has created increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve will delay further aggressive moves in monetary policy, which in turn has had an impact on confidence in the US Dollar. Concurrently, an overall pick-up in risk sentiment across the world has become more acceptable for investors to hold currencies such as the Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView To the upbeat mood is added a new direction in US trade policy. Although tariffs on Chinese imports were raised sharply, the US implemented a temporary moratorium on new tariffs for all other trading partners. This action has served to allay concerns of an escalating trade war, paving the way for more settled global economic prospects. Back in the UK, the Bank of England is likely to take a gradual path to monetary accommodation, with any rate cuts dovetailed across the course of the year. Such a measured approach has contributed to the Pound’s relative attractiveness, particularly as markets anticipate crucial near-term data releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is displaying robust bullish momentum as it trades around the 1.3050 resistance level, constituting a potential breakout zone. The pair has sustained an uptrend for four straight sessions, backed by a series of higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. The 50-day moving average is in an upward trend, supporting bullishness, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below the overbought level, indicating scope for further appreciation. A continued break above 1.3050 may pave the way towards the next resistance at 1.3100, while short-term support is around 1.2970, followed by the psychological 1.2900 level. FORECAST GBP/USD may keep its momentum going in the short term, particularly if future US economic indicators, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer sentiment, further indicate a decline in inflation. A weaker prognosis for the US economy would likely make the Dollar even weaker, which could give GBP/USD enough strength to breach the 1.3050 resistance level and head for the next level at 1.3100 or even 1.3150. Enhanced global risk appetite, underpinned by reduced trade tensions and stable UK economic indicators, may also keep demand for the Pound firm. Should the Bank of England continue with a measured and consistent policy of rate cuts, it could give further support to the currency. Conversely, GBP/USD will potentially come under selling pressure should US data surprise to the upside, resuscitating hopes of tighter Federal Reserve policy. A rebound in the US Dollar, particularly if it is fueled by more robust inflation or growth data, might drive the

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Jumps Higher than 0.5750 as China’s Economic Data Increases Market Optimism and Weakening USD

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  • March 17, 2025
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The pair NZD/USD moved higher than the 0.5750 level, picking up strength for a second day in a row after the publication of strong economic data from China. Retail Sales in China increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, and Industrial Production grew by 5.9%, both showing enhanced economic activity and improving market optimism in the Asia-Pacific economy. Since China is still one of New Zealand’s most important trading partners, these encouraging signs supported the Kiwi. Further optimism was provided by China’s recently launched consumption stimulus plan. The US Dollar, on the other hand, lost strength as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted sharply, further supporting NZD/USD’s bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Greater-than-anticipated Retail Sales and Industrial Production in China increase NZD sentiment, supporting optimism in Asia-Pacific market dynamics. • A precipitous decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index presses the US Dollar, providing support to NZD/USD advances. • China’s special action plan to promote consumption, wages, and real estate sentiment favors regional currencies, including NZD over USD. • Weakness in New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index is a domestic signal, and if global sentiment reverses, this could restrict NZD’s rally. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to strengthen with the support of positive Chinese economic data and a soft US Dollar. China’s Retail Sales increased by 4.0% and Industrial Production grew 5.9% in January-February, which indicates good economic momentum and raises investor sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region. The New Zealand Dollar also gained from China’s new stimulus package that was created to boost domestic consumption, pay, as well as stabilize markets. On the other hand, the US Dollar remained on the back foot after a steep fall in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index to its weakest level since November 2022. In spite of a decline in New Zealand’s services sector, the favorable external environment remains in support of NZD/USD’s rise. NZD/USD climbs above 0.5750, led by robust Chinese economic data and a softer US Dollar. The pair’s upside is also supported by China’s new consumption stimulus plan. Even with domestic service sector softness, the pair continues to rally. • NZD/USD climbed above 0.5750, marking the second straight day of gains on improved sentiment. • China’s Retail Sales grew 4.0% YoY in January-February, from 3.7% in December, supporting regional currencies such as the NZD. • Chinese Industrial Production grew 5.9% YoY, better than expected, and indicating economic prowess. • China rolled out a special consumption stimulus plan, comprising wage increases and efforts to enhance household expenditure and stabilize core markets. • PSI in New Zealand fell to 49.1, indicating services sector contraction that may drag on domestic economic prospects. • US Dollar declined strongly, after a fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022. • The attention now shifts to US Retail Sales data that may drive the next direction for NZD/USD. China’s recent economic statistics have sent a wave of optimism into the market, particularly favoring the New Zealand Dollar. The increase in Retail Sales and Industrial Production between the months of January-February indicates firmer consumer spending and industrial performance, which supports China’s economic growth. Since China is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners, any good news in its economy will prove favorable to the New Zealand Dollar. In addition, China’s declaration of a special action plan to spur domestic consumption—via wage rises, support for household spending, and market stabilization efforts—has also boosted sentiment throughout the region. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, the US Dollar is under pressure from declining consumer confidence in the United States. The steep drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects increasing worry about the outlook for the US economy, and this is having an impact on investor sentiment. Although New Zealand’s own service sector has reported signs of slowing, overall market sentiment remains biased towards the Kiwi, owing primarily to superior external drivers. With global markets waiting closely for subsequent economic releases, the overall economic climate remains in the driver’s seat in dictating currency fluctuations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is displaying the signs of ongoing bullish strength following the break through the 0.5750 resistance level. The pair remains firm around 0.5760, reflecting buyer demand at higher prices. If the pair holds above this range, it may challenge the next resistance zone of 0.5785–0.5800. On the negative side, support is close to 0.5720, and then a stronger support area around 0.5680. A break below these could mean a loss of momentum. On the whole, the current price action indicates a positive sentiment with the pair remaining in a short-term bullish bias. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience further gains in the short term. Positive economic news from China and the stimulus packages to stimulate consumption are expected to continue supporting the New Zealand Dollar. A break above the 0.5760 level may pave the way towards the next resistance levels at 0.5785 and 0.5800. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair may even try to reach the 0.5820 level, particularly if future US economic data continues to be weak. On the other hand, any change in market mood or disappointing economic news from the rest of the world may initiate a pullback in NZD/USD. In case the pair is unable to stay above 0.5750, it might initially be supported around 0.5720. Breaking below this point might initiate a more serious correction towards 0.5680 or even 0.5650. Moreover, if New Zealand’s economic indicators in the domestic market continue to reflect weakness, it may cap the upside and risk a move down.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Tops Four-Month High as US Dollar Loses Ground to Cooling Inflation, Rising Economic Concerns

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  • March 13, 2025
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The GBP/USD rate hit a four-month high of 1.2989 on March 13 amid a sustained rise as the US Dollar comes under pressure following declining US inflation and increasing economic concerns. The recent decline in US inflation, combined with hopes of possible rate cuts by the Fed, has undermined the Greenback, lifting the British Pound. In the meantime, the UK economy is not without its problems, with falling housing prices and a muted outlook from the Bank of England. In spite of these issues, hopes for UK-US trade talks and hopes for persistently higher interest rates have supported the Pound. Investors are now looking to forthcoming US economic statistics and UK GDP data to further assess the prospects of both economies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Deterioration in US inflation is expected to raise hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates earlier than expected, which will soften the US Dollar. • The GBP/USD pair continues to push higher, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar comes under pressure with rising fears of recession. •  The RICS Housing Price Balance dropped to 11% in February, signaling ongoing weakness in the UK housing market amid broader economic uncertainty. • Expectations of sustained high interest rates in the UK are supporting the Pound, as traders scale back earlier forecasts for aggressive easing by the BoE. The GBP/USD pair is holding steady near four-month highs, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar faces significant pressure. The recent dip in US inflation, with headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in the near future, pressuring the Greenback. In contrast, the UK economy is struggling, led by a drop in house prices, but the British Pound is being cushioned by increased hopes that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates in place for a longer time. With fears of a possible US recession and continued tariff uncertainty, the Pound is strengthening as investors await future economic data, such as the US Producer Price Index and UK GDP, for further market guidance. GBP/USD remains strong near four-month highs as the US Dollar weakens on cooling inflation, fueling expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK’s economic outlook faces pressure from a declining housing market, but optimism around sustained Bank of England rates supports the Pound. • The GBP/USD pair reached 1.2989 on March 13, maintaining strength amid a weaker US Dollar. • US February inflation data revealed a trend of cooling, with both headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, lowering the chances of additional rate hikes. • Expectations in markets are increasing that the Federal Reserve is likely to trim interest rates in the near future because of the downtrend in inflation and possible economic concerns. • The Greenback is also subjected to further headwinds as fears of a US recession persist, putting further pressure on the US Dollar. • The UK housing sector was weak, with the Residential Market Survey recording a second successive fall in the Housing Price Balance to 11% in February. • The UK 10-year gilt yield rose, indicating expectations that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates for longer. • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was optimistic that the UK would not face US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which augured well for UK-US trade relations. The GBP/USD currency pair has been trending upwards, hitting a four-month high, indicating a positive sentiment for the British Pound. This change arrives as the US Dollar is increasingly under pressure, much of which stems from inflation and general economic concerns in the United States. As US inflation appeared to be easing, speculation grew that the Federal Reserve would soon decide to cut interest rates, which has further undermined the Greenback. In the meantime, the UK is working through its own economic woes, but the Pound is continuing to find favor, in part because it is expected that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates higher for longer. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView As the UK works through uncertainty in its housing market, where falling housing prices have been seen in recent months, there is cause for hope when it comes to trade with the US. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shown faith that the nation would be spared tariffs on aluminum and steel via ongoing negotiations, which has allowed for a slightly more optimistic note in the market. As attention turns to pending economic data points, such as the UK GDP reports and more information regarding US inflation, prospects for both currencies remain tied to changing economic updates. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has been in a strong bullish trend, closely following its four-month highs, with the pair repeatedly holding above the 1.2950 level. The recent escalation to 1.2989 indicates that the Pound is picking up pace, helped by the declining US Dollar. Important support is around 1.2900, while resistance is at 1.3000, where the pair is likely to encounter some consolidation before breaking higher. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate bullish sentiment, although traders will watch closely for any pullbacks or overbought signals. As market players wait for new economic releases, these technical levels will be important in deciding the pair’s next direction. FORECAST The GBP/USD currency pair is expected to extend its bullish run, helped by a weakening US Dollar and expectation of the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in the immediate future. The Pound can continue to push towards the psychological 1.3000 resistance level if it holds its strength above crucial support levels, around 1.2950. The optimism in the market about the UK’s trade talks with the US and the Bank of England’s hardline on interest rates should give further support to the British currency. A move above 1.3000 would potentially lead to further advances, targeting the 1.3050 to 1.3100 region, if economic numbers out of the UK remain resilient. On the

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