Forex Trading Tools and Services

Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Poised to Extend Rally Toward 0.6100 on Weak US Data, Bullish Momentum

  • BY
  • June 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

NZD/USD currency pair rallied to a seven-month high at around 0.6055, on the back of widespread strength in the New Zealand Dollar and weakness in the US Dollar despite persisting US-China trade tensions on weak US economic data. The Kiwi remained upbeat despite sustained US-China trade tensions, drawing strength from declining US Treasury yields and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Technically, the pair is close to a bullish breakout through the consolidation range, with leaders such as the 20-day EMA and RSI hinting at upward momentum. A sustained break above 0.6050 might pave the way for a rally towards 0.6100 and further. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A break above this level might initiate bullish momentum towards 0.6100 and 0.6145. •  Any additional softness in US data can boost bets on a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar. •  Escalating tensions might affect risk sentiment and indirectly burden the NZD given New Zealand’s trade relationships with China. •  The bullish flag pattern, increasing 20-day EMA, and RSI above 60.00 all indicate further potential to go higher. NZD/USD pair maintains its rally, hitting a new seven-month high of around 0.6055 as the New Zealand Dollar trounces peers. The strength holds despite persistent US-China trade tensions, demonstrating the Kiwi’s resilience in a world filled with uncertainty. Subpar US economic data, such as weak ADP employment and ISM services data, has weighed on US Treasury yields and stoked hopes for a possible Fed rate reduction, further eroding the US Dollar. Technically, the couple is set to report a bullish break out of its latest consolidation range with momentum indicators such as the RSI and 20-day EMA favoring the move higher. A clean break above 0.6050 could set the stage towards the 0.6100–0.6145 resistance area. NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055 due to US Dollar weakness and healthy Kiwi demand. Bullish technical indications point towards a near-term breakout towards 0.6100. Weak US data and expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to pressure the Greenback. • NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055, propelled by general Kiwi strength. • Weak US economic indicators (ADP jobs, ISM Services) pressure US Treasury yields and the USD. • Speculation of Fed rate cut weighs on the US Dollar Index around 98.60. • US-China trade tensions continue, but the NZD stays resilient to potential threats. • Breakout expected technically, as NZD/USD nears the upper end of a bullish flag pattern. • RSI rises above 60, and the 20-day EMA steepens, indicating bullish momentum. • Next resistance levels are 0.6100 and 0.6145, while major support is at 0.5846. The NZD/USD pair has gained strong traction, reaching a seven-month high as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms amid a backdrop of global uncertainty. Despite ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, the Kiwi has shown resilience, supported by investor confidence in New Zealand’s economic stability. Statements from the previous US President Donald Trump on how hard it is to get a trade deal done with China have raised geopolitical concerns without suppressing demand for the NZD. This level of strength is particularly surprising considering New Zealand’s close economic relationship with China, and it shows the market’s faith in the Kiwi currency. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar is under pressure from soft local economic data. The most recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for May missed expectations, which raised doubts regarding the health of the US labor market and service sector. These reports have resulted in lower US Treasury yields and heightened speculation regarding monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in future meetings. In turn, investors are turning away from the USD, and this provides additional support to NZD/USD appreciation in the larger market environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is showing robust bullish momentum as it nears the upper limit of a Bullish Flag pattern, traditionally a continuation signal that foretells additional upside. The pair has moved out of its range of consolidation between 0.5846 and 0.6024, and this points to the possibility of an extended rally. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pointing higher at 0.5925, supporting the upward trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved past the 60.00 threshold, indicating building buying pressure. In the event that the pair remains above the level of 0.6050, it may reach the next significant resistance points of 0.6100 and 0.6145. FORECAST NZD/USD can see further upside if it continues above the 0.6050 level. A breakout above this level, supported by good technicals and weak US Dollar sentiment, could see the pair towards the next hurdle of 0.6100, then 0.6145. Ongoing weak US economic news, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and calm risk appetite would also see the pair see the bullish path through. Conversely, if NZD/USD cannot maintain a level above the 0.6050 region and comes under renewed pressure from external risk factors—like rising US-China trade tensions or higher-than-expected US data release—the pair may retreat. A fall below the May 12 low of 0.5846 would leave it vulnerable to further downside towards the 0.5800 psychological level, with further support at the April 10 high of 0.5767.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Moves Back Towards 0.6500 as Soft US Data Deters Dollar Strength

  • BY
  • June 4, 2025
  • 0 Comments

AUD/USD currency pair moved back higher on Wednesday, moving back towards the 0.6500 level as the US Dollar fell back after weaker-than-anticipated economic data. Even with the news that Australia’s GDP grew at only 0.2% in Q1 and saw its business activity barely move in May, the Australian Dollar picked up following the deterioration in the Greenback. US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI both came in below expectations, indicating a deceleration in the US economy and stoking speculation of a Federal Reserve policy change. The pair’s rally shows the market’s responsiveness to US macroeconomic data, with more to come before Australia’s trade numbers and the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS • A vital determinant that may impact Fed rate expectations and trigger meaningful USD movement. •  Could offer short-term guidance on the AUD based on export result and trade surplus data. • A significant psychological and technical level; a clean breakout might indicate additional bullish pressure. •  Market sentiment for a dovish tilt may continue to press on the US Dollar if weak data continues. AUD/USD pair is displaying strength, rebounding against the critical 0.6500 level as the US Dollar falters with dismal economic reports. Disappointing employment figures from the ADP and an unexpected weakening in the ISM Services PMI have created doubts regarding the vigour of the US economy, fueling speculation regarding a possible policy change from the Federal Reserve. Even though Australia’s own weaker GDP growth and muted PMI readings failed to make a dent, the Australian Dollar recovered later from early losses on technical support around the 0.6450 level. Attention now turns to subsequent Australian trade data and the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may provide the pair with fresh impetus. AUD/USD recovered to around 0.6500 as the US Dollar softened on weak jobs and services data. In spite of Australia’s poor GDP, the Aussie was supported by technical buying and USD weakness. Traders now look for Australia’s trade data and the US NFP report for direction. • AUD/USD recovered back to 0.6500, recovering losses from weak Australian GDP data. •  US Dollar lower following underwhelming ADP employment (37,000 vs. 115,000 anticipated) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 anticipated). • Australian Q1 GDP eased to 0.2% QoQ, the weakest expansion in three quarters, below forecasts of 0.4%. • S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs indicated limited growth, with readings hovering marginally above 50. • Technical floor at 0.6450 remained in place, triggering fresh AUD buying interest. • DXY (US Dollar Index) fell below 99.00, indicative of broad USD weakness in the face of weak US data. • The next major move in the pair is most likely to be influenced by upcoming Australian trade data and US Nonfarm Payrolls. The Australian currency strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, primarily fueled by a weakening Greenback in the wake of softer-than-projected US economic data. The ADP Employment Change report showed a sharp deceleration of hiring, with private companies adding just 37,000 jobs in May — the weakest in more than a year. Further, the ISM Services PMI dipped into contraction ground for the first time this year, an indication of a larger moderation in the services sector. These points have provoked alarm regarding the health of the U.S. economy and heightened market speculation surrounding a possible change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, Australia’s domestic data showed a mixed reading. Although GDP growth eased to 0.2% for the first quarter, the lowest rate in three quarters, the economy maintained its record of unbroken expansion. The most recent PMI readings revealed marginal movement in business activity, and overall indicative of a generally slow but stable economic climate. As focus shifts now towards Australia’s next trade balance and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, market players continue to watch closely how changing economic indicators will influence central bank projections and currency action over the next few days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is pointing towards a rebound after it encountered solid support around the 0.6450 level, which has served as a floor in successive sessions. The pair is currently hinting at testing the 0.6500 psychological resistance, a level that has halted rallies on several occasions, meaning that a decisive breakout above it may pave the way for further gains. Momentum tools such as the RSI are slowly shifting into positive territory, reflecting renewed buying demand. But persistence above 0.6500 is the key to establishing a bullish breakout, while a failure to break this level might lead to further consolidation around the range thus far. FORECAST AUD/USD exchange rate manages to move above the 0.6500 resistance level, it might initiate further bullish momentum, particularly if future releases from Australia indicate a higher trade surplus or in case the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes short. A breakthrough above this psychological level might unlock the way to the next resistance around 0.6550 or further, as sentiment towards the Australian Dollar improves. Further deterioration in US economic data could also generate speculation regarding further Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting the pair. To the downside, a failure to break the 0.6500 barrier could produce fresh selling pressure, with the pair likely to retest support around the 0.6450 area. A better-than-expected US jobs report or more hawkish Fed commentary might revive demand for the US Dollar, taking AUD/USD down. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair might drift towards 0.6400, particularly if Australian trade data disappoints or global risk sentiment deteriorates.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Inches Close to 1.3500 as Weak US Dollar and BoE Halt Bets Fuel Sterling

  • BY
  • June 2, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD exchange rate starts the week strong, moving nearer to the important 1.3500 level as renewed US Dollar weakness keeps pressures on the pair. The weakening of the USD is fueled by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions after soft PCE inflation readings and rising apprehensions regarding the US fiscal situation, especially in light of President Trump’s recent spending bill. In the meantime, the British Pound gets support from speculation that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates unchanged at its next June meeting. Yet, generalized caution in markets on account of rising geopolitical tensions and new US-China trade uncertainties might restrict the pair’s gains. The market now looks to future US economic news and Fed Chairman Powell’s statements for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market focus will be on near-term US economic releases, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for additional indications about the direction of Fed interest rates. • Expectations of the BoE halting rate cuts at its June 18 gathering remain underpinning the GBP, with central bank guidance being a key variable in shaping GBP/USD sentiment. • Concerns about the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s latest spending budget, and heightened US-China trade tensions can pressure the USD in the short term. • Rising geopolitical tensions—led by Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East—can drive safe-haven demand for the USD and cap gains in GBP/USD even with underlying positive drivers. GBP/USD pair remains volatile to a variety of key factors that can influence its near-term direction. Market players will be keenly watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming comments and the newest US macroeconomic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for cues on the Federal Reserve rate outlook. On the British side, hopes that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting remain behind the support for the Pound. But chronic worries over the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s recent spending bill, and escalating tensions in US-China trade relations could further pressure the US Dollar to the downside. Meanwhile, wider risk-off sentiment sourced from the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East might provide some support to the Greenback, potentially putting a lid on the upside for GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is supported by hopes of a BoE rate standstill and continued USD weakness fueled by weak US data and fiscal issues. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and a conservative global risk tone could cap any further appreciation. Traders are now looking to essential US data and Fed commentary for new direction. •  GBP/USD trades around 1.3500, gaining positive momentum in the face of new USD weakness. •  Expectations for Fed rate cut increase after weak PCE inflation data in the US. •  US fiscal worries deepen following President Trump’s spending bill, putting pressure on the Dollar. •   BoE to keep rates steady in its June 18 meeting, favoring GBP strength. •  Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East weigh on global risk appetite. •   US-China trade uncertainty returns after Trump’s remarks, contributing to USD pressure. •   Upcoming US data and Powell’s address are in the spotlight for short-term direction for markets. GBP/USD pair has begun the week on a firm footing, helped by more general weakness in the US Dollar and enhanced confidence in the British Pound. A milder US inflation reading, as expressed through the most recent PCE Price Index, has further fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will choose additional policy loosening in the months ahead. This mood, together with increasing unease regarding the US fiscal situation in the wake of passage of a new government appropriation bill, has further contributed to the downward pressure on the Dollar. In the meantime, the British Pound holds steady, supported by hopes the Bank of England will be less willing to make further cuts in future interest rates, with no near-term moves anticipated at its next policy session. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView All the while, global market sentiment is being influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations. Recent comments from President Trump, in which he hinted that China might not completely live up to the terms of their trade deal, have also added to investor wariness. Also, all the recent conflicts in places like Eastern Europe and the Middle East still bear down on overall market sentiment. Therefore, investors are remaining close to upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches by officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell, for any signals that might impact policy expectations and currency market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is demonstrating signs of bullish momentum as it slowly inches towards the important psychological resistance around the 1.3500 level. Sustained break above this point may pave the way for further appreciation, with the next resistance at 1.3570–1.3600. On the downside, near-term support is at 1.3420, followed by firmer support at 1.3370, where the buyers may get back in. The overall framework is positive, but a decisive breakout above 1.3500 is required to ensure further uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD pair holds scope for additional upside if prevailing momentum is sustained and the pair is able to achieve a clear breakout above the 1.3500 psychological mark. A change in market sentiment, aided by dovish communications from the Federal Reserve or improved UK economic indicators, could propel the pair to the next level of resistance around 1.3570–1.3600. Moreover, if the Bank of England is reticent about rate cuts while the Fed tends to ease, the policy differences might further favor bullish action in the pair. Conversely, any indication of strength in US economic statistics or even a more aggressive stance at the Fed can revive demand for the US Dollar at the expense of GBP/USD. A failure to hold above the 1.3500 level could trigger a short-term pullback, with initial support at 1.3420, and a further correction feasible towards 1.3370 if bearish momentum takes over. In addition, rising geopolitical tension or

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Approaches 39-Month High as US-EU Trade Tensions Ease and BoE Rate Cut Odds Fade

  • BY
  • May 27, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD pair maintains its bullish run, trading close to a 39-month high of 1.3593 as risk appetite improves in the markets. US Dollar drops as easing of US-EU trade tensions, after President Trump’s tariffs delay, combined with increasing worries about the US fiscal outlook linked to the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” counters any strength from yesterday’s data. The Pound Sterling, however, gets stronger as hotter-than-forecast UK inflation and retail sales data lead to traders reducing bets for hostile rate cuts from the Bank of England. The pairing of a weaker USD and more resilient GBP has boosted the pair’s sustained rally. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention will stay focused on future UK economic data, particularly inflation and employment numbers, that may determine the Bank of England’s future actions on interest rates. •  Investors are monitoring the fate of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, whose potential to increase the fiscal deficit might still be a drag on the US Dollar. •  Any trade negotiation news or changes between the EU and the US could play a major role in affecting risk sentiment and USD strength. •  Traders will watch if GBP/USD can convincingly move above the 39-month peak of 1.3593, which would make the door open to more bullish strength. In the coming weeks, traders will stay focused on major economic data releases from the UK, such as future inflation and employment figures, for additional hints regarding the direction of policy at the Bank of England. A persistent change in rate cut expectations could further buoy the Pound. In the US, news regarding President Trump’s intended “One Big Beautiful Bill” and its effects on the fiscal deficit might continue to put pressure on the US Dollar, particularly in case concerns over increasing debt continue. Furthermore, any shift in the tone of US-EU trade relations can affect market risk appetite and create volatility in the GBP/USD pair. Technically, a clean break above the 39-month high of 1.3593 would indicate additional room for the currency pair to move higher. Pound traders are waiting to see UK data and BoE policy cues as diminished rate cut hopes keep the Pound supported. Against this backdrop, US fiscal issues and softening US-EU trade tensions keep the Dollar under pressure. A breakout above 1.3593 may prompt additional gains in GBP/USD. •  GBP/USD hovers at a 39-month high of 1.3593 on the back of unwavering bullish momentum. •  US Dollar drops on damping US-EU trade tensions and escalating fiscal deficit fears. •  President Trump postpones EU tariff deadline, enhancing market risk appetite. •  Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” sparks fears of a $3.8 billion addition to the US deficit. •  Higher US bond yields may persistently drive high borrowing costs, weighing on the USD. •  Faster-than-anticipated UK inflation and retail sales lower the expectations of dovish BoE rate cuts. •  Technical interest continues at the 1.3593 resistance level, with a breakout indicating potential for additional GBP/USD gains. GBP/USD pair is well-supported as sentiment continues to improve due to decreasing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union. The last-minute postponement of US tariff action against the EU, after a call between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump, has given investor sentiment a boost and supported risk-taking. This has put a bearish squeeze on the US Dollar, which is already weak due to increasing worries over the nation’s fiscal prospects. The suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill,” comprising tax cuts and higher spending, is set to widen the US deficit by $3.8 billion, triggering concerns about economic stability in the long term. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, the British Pound is strengthening as investors rethink expectations over UK monetary policy. April’s recent retail sales and inflation data were hotter than anticipated, prompting markets to revise downwards expectations of large interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. Traders now price just one possible rate reduction in 2025 and a 50/50 chance of a second, futures data quoted by Reuters show. This more aggressive tone has contributed to the appeal of the Pound, particularly as economic data provides evidence of robustness in consumer spending and inflation pressures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is continuing its strong uptrend, consolidating short of the 39-month high of 1.3593. The pair has been underpinned by sustained buying interest, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in bullish conditions, suggesting underlying strength. The key support is seen at the 1.3550 region, which has served as a good base in recent sessions. A decisive break above the resistance of 1.3593 may set the stage for more upside, while inability to hold above support may result in short-term consolidation. FORECAST If the positive mood persists and UK economic indicators continue to be robust, GBP/USD may move further higher. The dissolving hopes of aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England, coupled with a weak US Dollar on the back of fiscal worries and better global risk appetite, could promote further gains. If such factors hold, the pair will look to set new highs at higher levels than of late, especially if future data continues to assert the UK’s economic robustness. Yet, any surprise decline in UK economic signals or change in Bank of England tone towards dovishness can put pressure on the Pound. On the other hand, if US fiscal worries recede or safe-haven demand for the Dollar comes back—perhaps prompted by renewed geopolitical tensions or soft global growth numbers—GBP/USD is likely to be under pressure. Renewed trade tension between the US and EU or political turmoil can also adversely influence overall market sentiment, cap the pair’s rally potential.

Read More
Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Moves Above 0.6000 Despite Rate Cut Speculation as US Dollar Lags Due to Debt Fears

  • BY
  • May 26, 2025
  • 0 Comments

NZD/USD currency pair jumped above 0.6000, hitting new six-month highs around 0.6030 in Asian trading on Monday, even as rate cut speculation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) picks up. The New Zealand dollar strength is being witnessed against the backdrop of ongoing US Dollar weakness due to increasing concerns over the US fiscal deficit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cautioned that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposed by former President Trump would increase the deficit by $3.8 billion via tax loopholes, putting additional pressure on US bond yields and economic prospects. Half of NZIER’s Shadow Board members meanwhile suggest a 25 basis-point OCR cut in the next RBNZ decision, mirroring the nation’s lackluster inflation and weak growth. KEY LOOKOUTS •Markets are keenly observing if the RBNZ will act on NZIER’s suggestion of $25 basis-point rate cut in view of low inflation and sluggish economic growth. •The fate of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate might have a big bearing on the US Dollar, particularly if the estimated $3.8 billion increase in the deficit comes to pass. •Itching US bond yields could continue to prop up borrowing costs, heightening economic uncertainty and affecting currency flows. •Sustained weakness in the US Dollar, underpinned by debt issues, could assist NZD/USD in the near term, particularly if risk appetite remains positive. Investors will need to watch the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy announcement on Wednesday closely, as markets expect a potential 25 basis-point rate reduction in the face of muted inflation and slow growth. Meanwhile, events in regard to ex-President Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” could continue to take a toll on the US Dollar, particularly if the projected $3.8 billion rise in the fiscal deficit actually happens. Increasing US bond yields, driven by deficit worries, may also maintain pressure on the US economy by perpetuating elevated borrowing costs. In summary, NZD/USD is still responsive to changes in monetary policy expectations and investor sentiment risk, which will be major drivers in the near term. The markets are waiting for the RBNZ’s rate decision, with a majority of people expecting a 25 basis-point reduction with dismal growth. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness is sustained by Trump’s proposed bill due to raised deficit concerns, keeping NZD/USD underpinned at six-month highs. •  NZD/USD broke the 0.6000 barrier, reaching a six-month high of about 0.6030 during Asian trading on Monday. •  The New Zealand Dollar firmed even as speculation for an RBNZ rate reduction this week increased. •  Fifty percent of NZIER’s Shadow Board suggested a 25 basis-point cut in OCR, while others proposed a bigger cut or no change. • US Dollar weakness persists amid increasing fears about the US fiscal deficit and economic prospects. • Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” would cost the US $3.8 billion in additional deficit, predicts the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). • Higher US bond yields fueled by deficit worries may prolong high borrowing costs, injecting economic uncertainty. • Short-term market sentiment continues to favor NZD/USD as investors wait for significant monetary policy announcements. New Zealand Dollar continues to strengthen with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forthcoming monetary policy announcement pending. Though certain members of NZIER’s Shadow Board have suggested a rate cut, broader market sentiment and external influences continue to support the NZD. The RBNZ has a difficult call to make as it weighs low inflation with persisting fears of the nation’s lackluster economic growth. While a cut in the rate is an option, the central bank can also opt to stay on the sidelines amid worldwide uncertainties. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar comes under pressure as worries over the nation’s expanding fiscal deficit grow. And former President Donald Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” has come under scrutiny, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating it would increase the national deficit by $3.8 billion. The bill, which contains tax reductions for tipped employees and automobile purchasers, has raised concerns about long-term budgetary pressure. These events are creating uncertainty in US economic prospects, which is affecting global currency flows and favoring stronger performance from such currencies as the NZD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has pierced the important psychological resistance level of 0.6000, which points to positive momentum. The pair is around 0.6030, its highest in six months, which suggests ongoing buying interest. If this rally continues, the next resistance area could be around 0.6060–0.6080. On the negative side, there is immediate support at 0.5970, with further support at 0.5930. Momentum oscillators like RSI are still in bullish territory, which confirms the optimistic short-term view unless there is a drastic reversal in sentiment after the policy decision by the RBNZ. FORECAST If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes a cautious tone or postpones a cut in rates, then the NZD can continue with its bullish trend, taking NZD/USD higher. Further fall in the US Dollar, fueled by fiscal uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment surrounding the US economy, can also help the pair to gain further. If these conditions continue, the pair may test resistance levels around 0.6060 and even move towards 0.6100 in the near future. Improved market sentiment or better-than-expected New Zealand economic data would help the bullish argument further. Conversely, if the RBNZ announces a bigger-than-expected rate cut of more than 25 basis points or a more dovish easing tone, the NZD can become vulnerable. A reversal in the US Dollar, perhaps on the back of better risk appetite or better US economic readings, can also negatively impact the pair. In that case, NZD/USD may come under bear pressure, with early support around 0.5970 and further decline potentially pushing it towards 0.5930 or below. Traders need to keep an eye on changes in global risk sentiment, which has the potential to change the pair’s direction in no time.

Read More
Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains Strength on BoJ Rate Hike Speculations and International Safe-Haven Demand

  • BY
  • May 22, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained significantly, touching a two-week high relative to the US Dollar (USD), as a result of a mix of bullish domestic and international drivers. Optimistic Japanese Machinery Orders data has raised hopes of Japan’s economic turnaround and speculation regarding additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, fresh safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions and fear of the US fiscal prospects has contributed to the Yen’s popularity. Poorer-than-expected US economic reports, hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and political uncertainty over President Trump’s tax bill have also pushed down the USD, further supporting the bearish leaning of the USD/JPY pair. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Monitor any new comments or policy changes from the Bank of Japan, particularly on interest rate rises, as ongoing monetary tightening may foster further JPY appreciation. • The main indicators like Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and coming PMIs will be instrumental in assessing the well-being of the US economy and determining USD direction. • Persistent tensions in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as US-China trade tension, can drive safe-haven flows into JPY, supporting downside pressure on USD/JPY. • Strong technical support is at 143.20 and 142.35, with resistance around 145.00–145.40. RSI close to the oversold zone on shorter timeframes indicates potential for near-term consolidation or a small bounce before the next move. Markets should keep a close eye on major events influencing the USD/JPY pair, as various factors still determine its short-term course. The hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan, fueled by robust domestic indicators such as the recent Machinery Orders jump, is likely to create room for additional interest rate increases, which would strengthen the Yen. Geopolitical tensions and global economic instability are also expected to continue driving demand for the safe-haven JPY. In contrast, the US Dollar remains under pressure amid weak macroeconomic data, fiscal concerns linked to President Trump’s proposed tax bill, and growing speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts. Technically, the pair faces strong resistance near 145.00–145.40, while a break below 143.20 could trigger deeper losses, making upcoming US data and global sentiment key factors to watch. The Japanese Yen is still underpinned by robust domestic data, BoJ rate hike prospects, and haven demand. On the other hand, USD/JPY is threatened by a soft US Dollar due to fiscal worries and Fed rate cut predictions. The next move will be led by key levels and future economic releases. •  The Japanese Yen touched a two-week high due to robust domestic fundamentals as well as haven inflows. • Japan’s Core Machinery Orders increased 13% in March, beating forecasts and reinforcing economic optimism. • Positive news reinforces speculation that the Bank of Japan will keep hiking interest rates. • The US Dollar continues to be pressured by fiscal worries and Federal Reserve rate-cutting expectations. • Ukraine and Gaza conflict and US-China trade tension fuel safe-haven flows into JPY. • Major resistance is at 145.00–145.40, with a break below 143.20 having potential to propel USD/JPY to further downside. • Investors should monitor US jobless claims, housing sales, and PMIs for new direction in USD/JPY. Japanese Yen continues to benefit from a mix of favorable domestic news and increased global uncertainty. Recent statistics indicating a steep rise in Japan’s Core Machinery Orders have brightened optimism about the nation’s economic revival, supporting belief that the Bank of Japan might continue with additional interest rate increases. This represents a major change from Japan’s history of ultra-loose monetary policy and indicates strengthening faith in homegrown demand and inflation stability. Moreover, hopes of increasing wages and consumer consumption are underpinning the wider picture for continued growth in Japan. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Globally, the Yen is also enjoying its habitual safe-haven status with increased geopolitical tensions and fears about the US fiscal condition. The recent US tax bill, which would substantially increase the federal deficit, has created investor concern about the long-term economic soundness of the country. Concurrently, persistent tensions in the likes of Ukraine and the Middle East, and reviving trade tensions between the US and China, are contributing to market volatility. These events are forcing investors to turn to safe assets, and the Yen has been the favored pick in uncertain times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating bearish momentum, with current price action having difficulty maintaining any serious recovery. The duo has been facing resistance in the 144.40 area, which is a significant retracement level as well as the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and indicates sustained selling interest at higher prices. Oscillators on the daily chart are starting to turn bearish, indicating an increasing downside bias. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on smaller timeframes is moving towards oversold levels, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation or corrective bounce. A clear violation of the 143.20 support level would set off selling pressure, exposing levels of 142.35 and further beyond to the 142.00 psychological level. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above significant support points and sentiment surrounding the US economy turns positive, there’s scope for a short-term recovery. A welcome surprise in future US economic reports, for example, jobless claims or housing numbers, may provide short-term relief for the US Dollar. Then the pair may try to retest the 145.00 psychological level. A persistent break above here may set the stage for a rise up to the 145.35–145.40 resistance area, provided investor sentiment becomes bullish on riskier assets and the Federal Reserve dials back its dovish tone. Conversely, further US Dollar weakness on the back of fiscal worries, dovish Fed hopes, or weak macroeconomic data may keep piling pressure on USD/JPY. When the pair falls below the 143.20 mark, which is a key Fibonacci support, it could unleash heavy technical selling. This would project the fall further to 142.35 and even to the 142.00 area. Additional geopolitical tensions or robust Japanese numbers might support the safe-haven demand for the Yen, extending the move lower in the next sessions.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rally Near Two-Week High as USD Weakens on US Fiscal Worries and Global Geopolitical Risks

  • BY
  • May 22, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices rallied to a near two-week high, holding above $3,300, as a weakening US dollar combined with rising fiscal worries in the US. Investor concern over growing US deficit, amid Moody’s recent downgrade of the nation’s sovereign credit rating and divisive tax bill, has dented dollar confidence. Fears of renewed US-China trade tensions and rising geopolitical threats, such as simmering Middle Eastern conflicts, have further fueled demand for gold as a haven asset. Technical indicators further indicate a positive outlook for gold, with the price breaking key resistance levels and ready to test higher targets in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Investors will watch closely what happens with the US tax-cut and spending bill, which could dramatically add to the national debt and affect market sentiment. •  Bets on additional Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 in response to weakening growth and softening inflation continue to be a key driver of the US dollar and gold prices. • Disputes over export controls and technology restrictions linger, potentially raising geopolitical risks, and underpinning gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and major-power rivalries between countries such as Russia are also fueling uncertainty, underscoring gold’s use as a defensive asset. Investors are watching closely as the evolving US fiscal situation plays out, with the approval of a large tax-cut and spending measure risking expansion of the national debt and dampening market sentiment. While that is on its way out, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2025 as the economy slows and inflation eases continue to weigh on the US dollar, supporting gold’s allure. Increased tensions in US-China trade relations, specifically on tech exports, provide another source of geopolitical uncertainty, supporting safe-haven purchases. Furthermore, continued unrest in the Middle East and tensions among world powers maintain uncertainty, adding to gold’s role as a sanctuary in uncertain times. Markets continue to be preoccupied with US fiscal woes and possible Fed rate reductions, which are depressing the dollar and bolstering gold prices. Increased US-China trade tensions and continued geopolitical unrest continue to fuel safe-haven demand for the metal. • Gold prices went higher for the fourth straight day to set a near two-week peak of more than $3,300. • The US dollar is weak because of increasing fiscal fears and anticipations of Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. • Moody’s reduction of the US sovereign credit rating and concerns regarding the widening US deficit overhang market sentiment. •  The Republican-sponsored tax-cut and spending package may add trillions to the US debt, yet another reason for concern. •  Resurgent US-China trade tensions, particularly on the export of advanced technology, are amplifying geopolitical risks. •  Middle Eastern conflicts and tense international relations remain strong fundamentals for the demand for gold. •  Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, as prices break resistance levels and head towards $3,365 and further to $3,400. Gold prices have continued to climb as a background of increasing economic and geopolitical risks. Concerns among investors regarding the fiscal health of the United States are still at the forefront, particularly in the wake of Moody’s recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The threat of the passage of a large tax-cut and spending measure, which will add trillions to the national debt, has further spooked markets. Further, the US dollar has lost strength on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in 2025 as economic growth slows and inflation eases. This pairing has made gold a more attractive safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, escalating US-China tensions over the export of technologies have fueled geopolitical risks, underpinning a risk-averse market mood. Middle Eastern conflicts, such as ongoing military interventions and humanitarian issues, provide another source of uncertainty, prompting investors to find shelter in gold. As several sources of risk coalesce, gold remains in favor with buyers in search of stability in a context of economic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has shown robust bullish strength, powering past major resistance levels of $3,250-$3,255 and holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of its latest bear move. Daily chart oscillators are becoming increasingly positive, implying upward trend momentum and that the direction of least resistance still is to the upside. This technical resilience is indicative of further advances toward the $3,365 area and even toward the $3,400 level, as long as the price remains above key support levels around $3,300. But any meaningful break below support might attract selling pressure, pushing lower levels of $3,250 and $3,200. FORECAST Gold prices are set to maintain their ascending direction as long as they remain above major support levels of $3,300. Favorable momentum and robust safe-haven demand fueled by continuing geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries would propel prices to the next resistance level of $3,365. A break below this level would see gold challenging the psychologically important $3,400 level, boosted by continuing US dollar weakness and hopes of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the flip side, inability to find support near the $3,300 level could pave the way for a corrective pullback. Sellers could engage near $3,255 if gold drops below $3,285. Yet a clear break below this support level may result in additional technical selling, pushing prices to the $3,200 level. Such a situation could occur if risk appetite upgrades considerably or if US economic reports lower expectations for monetary easing.

Read More
Currencies

USD/CHF Dips to Two-Week Low as Dollar Weakness and Safe-Haven Flows Drive Swiss Franc Higher

  • BY
  • May 21, 2025
  • 0 Comments

USD/CHF currency pair has continued its losing streak for the third day in a row, dropping to a two-week low at the 0.8220 level due to ongoing US Dollar weakness and an increase in safe-haven buying of the Swiss Franc. The greenback pressure to the downside is fueled by rising US fiscal worries following an unexpected sovereign credit rating downgrade, in addition to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year as inflation is easing and growth is slowing. Moreover, renewed US-China tensions over chip export controls have weighed on market sentiment, supporting demand for safe-haven assets such as the CHF. In the absence of significant US data releases, eyes now shift to speeches by FOMC members and geopolitical events to drive the near-term path of the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants will carefully listen to statements from Federal Reserve officials for new indications of the timing and magnitude of prospective rate reductions. • Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding chip export ban tensions and retaliatory threats, may support safe-haven flows and benefit the Swiss Franc. • No significant data is scheduled for midweek, but future releases on growth, inflation, or employment might affect USD sentiment and determine the way the pair goes. • Any additional decline in global risk appetite or return of market volatility might make the CHF stronger and continue to apply pressure to USD/CHF. USD/CHF pair is still at risk of further declines on a mix of bearish sentiment around the US Dollar and persistent demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc. Market focus will be placed on near-term speeches from influential FOMC members, which may provide new insights into the Fed’s monetary policy direction, particularly in light of increasing interest rate cut expectations. In addition, increased US-China trade tensions related to chip export restrictions are likely to hurt investor sentiment, potentially triggering additional safe-haven flows into the CHF. With few economic data points on the calendar, broad risk appetite and geopolitics will be instrumental in dictating the near-term direction of the pair. USD/CHF pair continues to face pressure as continuous USD weakness and increasing safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc act on the pair. Attention now turns to FOMC speeches and US-China trade tensions, which may further impact short-term market mood. •  USD/CHF falls to two-week low, trading near 0.8220 level in face of continuous selling pressure on US Dollar. •  US fiscal woes and a recent sovereign credit rating downgrade remain overhanging the greenback. •  Bets on a rate cut by the Fed become increasingly strong with evidence of slowing inflation and a weak US economic outlook. •  Safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc is intensifying, further pinning back the USD/CHF pair. •  US-China trade tensions intensify over chip export controls, damaging world risk sentiment and underpinning CHF strength. •  Deficiency of significant US economic data turns attention in the market towards FOMC members’ speeches for policy direction. •  Technical and fundamental bias is still bearish, and there is potential for additional decline in the near future. The USD/CHF currency pair is presently subject to a mix of international and local drivers that are beneficial for the Swiss Franc. Continued unease about the fiscal condition of the U.S., particularly in the wake of recent sovereign credit rating downgrade for the country, has dented investor confidence in the U.S. Dollar. Further added to this is increased speculation that the Federal Reserve can consider interest rate reductions later this year with signs of inflation softening and economic growth slowing down. These trends have helped bring about a consistent weakening of the value of the Dollar, underpinning demand for traditionally safer assets such as the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides local economic issues in the U.S., geopolitical tensions are also at large contributing to guiding market behavior. The renewed trade tension between the U.S. and China—initiated by export controls regarding cutting-edge chip technology—has generated new worries over global trade stability. The sharp response by China to U.S. actions has disturbed markets and spurred a flight to safety, which normally favors such currencies as the Swiss Franc. With little key economic data on the horizon in the near term, market players are keeping a close eye on central bank commentary and geopolitical developments to gauge the next set of moves in global currency markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF pair is trending downwards, indicating persistent bearish pressure. The pair is below crucial moving averages, which suggests a dominant short-term bearish bias. Momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to be bearish, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Failure of the pair to maintain above the prevailing support zone may bring about the doorway for further losses. Yet any hoped-for reversal is expected to find resistance close to recent swing highs, where the sellers are likely to return to market. FORECAST USD/CHF pair may emerge if the market mood turns in favor of the US Dollar. This may happen if future speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers take a more hawkish tone, underestimating the probabilities of imminent rate cuts. Second, and perhaps more importantly, any resolution or relief in US-China trade tensions may dampen safe-haven demand, in turn weakening the Swiss Franc and favoring a bounce in the pair. Friendly surprises in major US economic indicators like higher-than-anticipated GDP or inflation figures may also give the USD a much-needed boost in the near future. On the negative side, the USD/CHF cross is still exposed to lower levels as the bearish forces continue. Renewed worries about the US fiscal situation coupled with growing market optimism regarding future Fed rate reductions are most likely to continue exerting downward pressure on the Dollar. Furthermore, if geopolitical tensions between the US and China heighten, Swiss Franc safe-haven flows can continue to strengthen. Under these conditions, the USD/CHF pair might continue its recent losses and challenge lower levels of support as safety demands from investors surpass risk appetite.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strengthens as Soft US Inflation Data and ECB Optimism Weigh on the US Dollar

  • BY
  • May 14, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD currency pair has seen a notable recovery, strengthening towards 1.1250 as soft US inflation data for April weighs on the US Dollar. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at its slowest pace in over four years, prompting criticism from US President Donald Trump, who renewed calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In spite of these pressures, the market continues to look for the Fed to keep its existing rates throughout the summer. In the meantime, the Euro performs ahead of its group with increasing confidence in its status as a reserve currency and hopes regarding the European Central Bank’s ability to make further rate cuts. The couple’s upbeat momentum is bolstered by both the abating US inflation and rising demand for the Euro in the face of a short-lived trade truce between the US and China. While investors wait for significant economic data, such as US Retail Sales and PPI, the EUR/USD continues in a bullish trajectory, with resistance at 1.1425 and support at 1.0950. KEY LOOKOUTS • The gentle April CPI reading has placed pressure on the US Dollar, and there are demands for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Additional weak inflation readings or comments by Fed Chair Powell would shape market expectations and affect the USD. • ECB officials continue to point towards future rate cuts, particularly as Eurozone inflation is soft. Any message from the ECB regarding upcoming monetary policy has the potential to harden the Euro and push EUR/USD trends. • The temporary respite between the US and China has lowered the risks of trade war, but any news in US-EU trade relations or any new announcements of trade policy will lead to currency pair volatility. • The EUR/USD has bounced back above its 20-day EMA and displays a bullish bias, with the RSI pointing towards upside. Breakout above key resistance levels (1.1425) or inability to hold above support (1.0950) will be decisive in determining the pair’s direction. EUR/USD currency pair has registered robust rebound, supported by weak US inflation reading for April and the rising probability of additional interest rate reductions by the European Central Bank (ECB). With the weakening of the US Dollar after the release of the lowest CPI growth in more than four years, President Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve for failing to reduce rates puts extra pressure on the greenback. In the meantime, the Euro is helped by both its increasing status as a reserve currency and the dovish policy of the ECB, with policymakers signaling another rate reduction before summer ends. Geopolitics, including the US-China trade truce, remain a factor in influencing the market, while technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair, with key resistance at 1.1425 and support at 1.0950. As the traders wait for important economic releases, such as US Retail Sales and PPI data, sentiment in the market will remain precarious, determining the future course of the currency pair. The EUR/USD currency pair gains strength as weak US inflation figures weigh down the US Dollar, with prospects of additional rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Technical charts are bearish, with a resistance level of 1.1425 and support level of 1.0950, with market players waiting for major US economic releases as well as geopolitical events. • April’s CPI figures reported the lowest inflation in more than four years, damping the US Dollar and stoking hopes for possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. • President Trump once again urged the Fed to cut interest rates, invoking weakening inflation and economic conditions that in his view require easier money policy. • European Central Bank officials such as Francois Villeroy de Galhau have signaled the potential for another rate cut prior to the summer, which would further prop up the Euro. • The Euro has beaten most of its major peers, fueled by growing confidence in its status as a reserve currency and dovish ECB policy. • A temporary trade ceasefire between the US and China has eased fears of a full-blown trade war, supporting some market sentiment. • The EUR/USD currency pair has rebounded above its 20-day EMA and is displaying bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating further potential upside. • The market is waiting for crucial US numbers, such as Retail Sales and PPI, which might have an impact on the expectations of future policy from the Fed and on the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD pair has been picking up momentum after the release of weak US inflation numbers for April, and this has weakened the US Dollar. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by only 2.3%, its weakest rate in more than four years, leading US President Trump to again urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. With inflation indications of weakening, market participants are now turning to the chances of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, although traders are still mostly anticipating the Fed to hold interest rates all the way to the summer. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Euro, meanwhile, has been taking advantage of its growing status as a reserve currency and the European Central Bank’s persistent dovish bias. ECB policymakers have suggested that they can make another interest rate cut before summer is out, which has bolstered the Euro against other currencies. At the same time, geopolitical events such as the recent US-China trade truce have relaxed global trade tensions, adding to bullish sentiment for the Euro. With growing optimism over the economic strength of the Eurozone, market players are looking to key economic data releases over the next few days for more signals on the EUR/USD pair’s direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD pair has experienced a robust comeback, recently crossing its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately 1.1220, indicating a trend reversal towards a bullish move. The duo’s bullish momentum is backed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has recovered from a reading of 40, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing. Important

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Fails to Maintain Gains as Subdued Trading and US-China Trade Tensions Mount

  • BY
  • April 18, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was subdued on Friday despite positive signals from US President Donald Trump about the possibility of reaching a trade agreement with China that would be sealed within the next three to four weeks. While the AUD/USD currency pair had been on a seven-day winning streak, trading volumes were subdued on account of the Good Friday holiday, and worries regarding the economic effects of tariffs on the US kept the US Dollar under pressure. Even these events notwithstanding, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to future interest rate moves and mixed economic data, such as a marginal increase in Australia’s unemployment rate, dented the AUD’s performance. The duo is trading close to the psychological 0.6400 mark, as market players anxiously await developments in further trade talks and signs of global economics. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players will keenly watch any advancement in the US-China trade talks, especially if a trade pact in the coming three to four weeks is imminent, as it would have a bearing on the AUD, given Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China. •  US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and labor market indicators, such as jobless claims, will be instrumental in determining the direction of the US Dollar. Better-than-anticipated data might favor the USD, which may cap AUD gains. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative stance towards interest rate actions and its evaluation of economic uncertainties will be instrumental for AUD movements. The rate of future rate cuts, if any, and their size might affect investor attitudes towards the currency. • Being Australia’s biggest trading partner, China’s economic performance—e.g., GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales—will keep influencing the AUD, especially with the recent optimistic growth in China’s economy surpassing expectations. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was downbeat on Friday despite encouraging news from US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of a trade agreement with China within the next few weeks. Trading was generally subdued on account of the Good Friday holiday, with market players monitoring the on-going US-China trade talks and their possible influence on the global economy. Though the AUD had been on a seven-day rising streak, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious approach to interest rate hikes and mixed economic indicators, such as a marginal increase in unemployment, kept its performance subdued. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around the psychological level of 0.6400, and the direction is still unclear as market participants wait for further news in both international trade negotiations and local economic indicators. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was subdued despite hope from US-China trade negotiations, with market activity slowed down by the Good Friday holiday. The AUD/USD currency pair fluctuates around the 0.6400 level, confronted by conflicting economic indicators and ambiguity both from world trade negotiations and local statistics. •  The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained sedate despite encouraging news from US President Donald Trump on US-China trade negotiations. • The trading activity was muted by the Good Friday holiday, diminishing volatility in the markets. • Trump remained hopeful that the United States and China could reach a trade agreement within three to four weeks, something that could impact the AUD. • The US Dollar (USD) was weakening with fears over the economic effects of tariffs and inflation risks. • The latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia reflected continued uncertainty regarding interest rate changes in the future. • The unemployment rate of Australia increased marginally to 4.1%, while employment change was below expectations, which further created uncertainty regarding the AUD. • The AUD/USD currency pair is around 0.6400, with important resistance at 0.6408 and support at 0.6311, reflecting likely price action. The Australian Dollar (AUD) registered minimal movement despite a positive comment by US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of a trade agreement with China. Trump was optimistic that a trade deal would be reached within the next three to four weeks, which increased expectations of a positive effect on global trade. Nevertheless, market activity was quiet because of the Good Friday holiday, which decreased trading volumes and volatility. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Against these events, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopted a prudent view regarding the nation’s economic scenario. Although recent economic statistics reported varied results, including a modest rise in the jobless rate and less-than-anticipated change in employment, the RBA reiterated uncertainty over upcoming interest rate decisions. Consequently, the performance of the AUD continued to come under stress, as traders keenly observed global trade talks along with domestic economic readings. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar (AUD) against the United States Dollar (USD) is exhibiting a bullish inclination, with the AUD/USD pair trading above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above the neutral 50 level. These signals indicate positive short-term upward momentum. Yet, the pair is confronted with crucial resistance around the psychological 0.6400 level, with additional hurdles at the four-month high of 0.6408. On the negative side, the nine-day EMA at 0.6311 and the 50-day EMA at about 0.6283 serve as immediate support levels, which may assist the pair in holding its present range unless there is a major break below these levels, which may indicate a change in market sentiment. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) may experience upward momentum if US-China trade negotiations move in a positive direction. Any major breakthrough in the trade deal, as suggested by US President Trump, would be a positive boost for global sentiment and Australia’s economy, given its robust trade relationship with China. Also, if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delays rate cuts, it would bring some stability to the AUD. Better-than-expected economic reports in Australia, like firm employment numbers or a decrease in the rate of unemployment, may also continue to boost the currency’s potential for gains. Downside threats to AUD come from overall global uncertainties, especially if US-China trade talks breakdown or do not yield an agreement. Deteriorating US Dollar, as a result of persistent inflation and economic issues, could

Read More