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Gold Price Remains Steady Over $3,300 on Safe-Haven Demand That Continues Despite Key FOMC Minutes Approach

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  • May 28, 2025
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Gold prices continue to hold steady over the $3,300 level as safe-haven demand remains in place despite prevailing tensions in the geopolitical scene, US fiscal issues, and risk-averse sentiment prior to the release of the FOMC Minutes. Even with a modest recovery in the US Dollar and relaxed trade tensions after President Trump’s postponement of EU tariffs, investor unease remains in driving demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Market players now closely monitor the Fed’s policy stance and forthcoming US economic releases such as Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index for further guidance. Technically, gold has potential for both near-term pullbacks and continuation higher, with support around $3,245 and resistance near $3,345. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market players look to the FOMC Minutes for insight into the Federal Reserve’s position regarding forthcoming interest rate reductions, which would directly impact gold prices and USD strength. •   Future important data, such as the Preliminary Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index, will offer more insight into inflation dynamics and the health of the economy, and could influence Fed policy expectations. •  Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East conflicts, and increasing worries regarding the fiscal deficit of the US support continued safe-haven demand for gold. • Look for important support at $3,245 and resistance at around $3,345. A breakout above resistance could initiate a rally to $3,400 and higher, while a fall below support might induce a bearish excursion. Gold traders are eagerly observing some important events that may determine the metal’s short-term trend. The FOMC Minutes release continues to be a top priority, with the markets wanting confirmation of the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve as expectations for two cuts in 2025 build. Furthermore, the forthcoming US economic data, with the Preliminary Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index taking center stage, will provide key insights into inflation and growth that will dictate both Fed policy and investor moods. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s moves in Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East, as well as fears over the US fiscal deficit, continue to support gold’s status as an asset class of last resort. On a technical basis, levels to monitor are support around $3,245 and resistance at $3,345, with a break in either direction set to initiate the next major move. Gold continues to be underpinned above $3,300 as investors look to the FOMC Minutes for transparency on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Safe-haven demand is being fueled by geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns, with further volatility potentially being added by forthcoming GDP and inflation releases. • Gold remains firm above $3,300 as investors look for cover amidst geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries. • FOMC Minutes are closely watched for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. • Market mood is still guarded in spite of President Trump’s postponement of envisaged EU tariffs. • Imminent US economic releases, such as Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index, may drive gold’s direction. • Gold finds support from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties and inflation. • US Dollar finds it hard to make headway, constrained by budgetary concerns and rate-cutting expectations. • Technical perspective indicates consolidation with scope for both continuation higher and short-term pullbacks. Gold prices remain stable above the $3,300 level, supported by renewed investor hesitancy in the face of geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns. Although some easing of trade tensions with President Trump’s postponement of planned EU tariffs, sentiment in the market remains precarious. Concerns regarding the general economic outlook, combined with renewed global conflict and mounting budget deficit anxieties, have maintained demand for the safe-haven metal at high levels. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Investors are now waiting for the FOMC Minutes release to gauge the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. With interest rate cuts anticipated later in the year, gold is expected to continue in the limelight as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Upcoming US economic releases such as Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index will also be closely monitored for the direction of inflationary trends and growth momentum that may dictate future policy actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is displaying signs of consolidation with an upward bias, as it maintains above important psychological support around $3,300. Though momentum indicators on the daily chart indicate loss of bullish momentum, they have failed to signify a bearish change, which could signal the emergence of fresh buying interest. Near-term resistance lies in the vicinity of the $3,340–$3,345 levels, which also corresponds to a recent trend-line breakdown. A continued advance above this level may spur fresh upside momentum, whereas inability to stay above $3,300 can leave the metal vulnerable to additional declines towards the $3,250–$3,245 resistance zone. FORECAST If gold is able to hold above the $3,300 level and clears the immediate overhead around $3,345, then it may unlock more gains. Rising safe-haven demand, dovish FOMC Minutes cues, or softer-than-anticipated US economic data can impart bullish momentum. Under this scenario, gold can rise to the $3,365 level and potentially extend towards the $3,400 level, provided market sentiment shifts risk-averse or the US Dollar continues to weaken. Alternatively, if gold is unable to stay above $3,300, it can attract more selling pressure. A more robust US currency, Fed hawkish remarks, or improved-than-anticipated economic indicators might deter the metal’s demand. Under these circumstances, prices might fall back to the $3,250–$3,245 area, which is a crucial support level. A firm breach below this region could trigger a more significant corrective period, possibly leaving gold vulnerable to additional sell-offs on the near-term horizon.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises on China Stimulus and Fed Rate Cut Expectations as US Dollar Weakens

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  • February 24, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is gaining strength against a weakening US Dollar as a combination of global and domestic factors alters market sentiment. A strong Chinese government policy announcement for 2025, with plans for ambitious rural reforms and detailed rural revitalization plans, has lifted confidence in Australia, as China is its major trading partner. This is compounded by news of government-sponsored developers bidding up land prices in China, a sign of renewed economic activity in the region. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent reduction of the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points—the first in four years—has aided the AUD’s rebound, while Governor Michele Bullock kept inflation pressures and the direction of future rate cuts firmly in check. KEY LOOKOUTS • Watch for China’s future policy cues and rural reform implementation, as successful implementation might continue to fuel land acquisitions and raise the AUD vs. the USD. • US economic data such as PMI readings and unemployment claims remain major drivers of the USD; substantial changes might redefine the AUD/USD path. • Watch the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy cues and possible interest rate movements, as additional loosening can fuel domestic growth and support the AUD’s bullish trend. The Australian Dollar has registered a strong bounce on hopes about China’s 2025 policy statement, which features intentions on rural reforms and a revival of the beleaguered real estate market. On the other hand, the US Dollar has come under pressure in the wake of a string of disappointing economic data points, ranging from soft PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, further fueled by policy actions from President Trump to curb Chinese investments in strategic areas. Overall, the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair is still positive, with the currency trading inside an uptrending channel and receiving support close to major moving averages, suggesting potentially a prolonged bout of strength for the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar is strengthening against a weakening US Dollar, supported by China’s strong policy announcement for 2025 of rural reforms and a rejuvenated property market, while the US is hit by weak economic data and conflicting PMI readings. • China’s 2025 policy announcement outlining rural reforms and property market stimulus boosts Australian optimism, potentially strengthening the AUD due to profound bilateral trade links. • President Trump’s order to cap Chinese investments in major U.S. industries has introduced uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and further weakening USD performance. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point rate reduction—the first in four years—indicates loosening policy, but officials warn that additional cuts are uncertain amidst inflation pressures. • Downbeat U.S. economic reports, such as mixed PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, continue to weigh on the USD, affecting the overall AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. • Federal Reserve officials say that even with strong job growth, ongoing inflation worries could require additional policy action, which could see further rate cuts this year. • Escalating U.S. trade tensions, represented by tariffs against pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and auto parts, may interfere with global supply chains and continue affecting currency fluctuations. • AUD/USD pair in an uptrending channel, enjoys robust support levels close to the key exponential moving averages and resistance at psychological zones. The Australian Dollar is being supported by upbeat economic indications flowing from China’s forward-looking policy statement in 2025. The announcement, which outlines expansive rural reforms and steps to revive the property sector, has increased confidence in Australia markets due to its deep trade relationship with China. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent move to loosen monetary policy via a rate cut indicates attempts to stimulate domestic growth, further supporting the currency. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is under pressure in the context of muted economic data and conservative policy expectations. Weak economic data coupled with fresh curbs on Chinese investments have added to uncertainty, casting a shadow over the US economic upturn. These events highlight the persistent issues in the US economy, leading market participants to reassess future growth opportunities and the wider implications for global trade patterns. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS          AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6370 within an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, suggesting sustained strength, while immediate support levels are evident at the nine-day and 14-day EMAs around 0.6347 and 0.6330, respectively. This is complemented by the lower channel boundary close to 0.6320, while resistance appears around the psychological 0.6400 level and the channel’s top at close to 0.6430, highlighting levels of importance to observe in case of possible trend resumption. FORECAST In the future, the Australian Dollar may continue to gain if favorable developments continue. Favorable policy actions from China to revive its rural and property markets may further fuel trade optimism between the two countries. Moreover, accommodative domestic monetary policies in Australia may further support investor confidence and attract capital inflows, setting the stage for a continued upward trend in the AUD. On the other hand, the AUD could be challenged if negative global or domestic conditions arise. Increased uncertainty from worsening US economic numbers or growing trade tensions would modify market sentiment and lead to a conservative reassessment of risk. Additionally, any change from expected policy developments in China or changes in Australia’s fiscal position could lead to a reversal of the currency’s recent advances, underlining the need to closely watch broader economic signs.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Cautious Yen Rally: BoJ Hike Bets and Falling Back JGB Yields Keep USD/JPY Below 150

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  • February 24, 2025
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The US Dollar has stayed below 150 versus the Japanese Yen, at its lowest against the currency since October, because of increasing expectation that the Bank of Japan will keep raising rates as inflation endures. But backpedaling on JGB yields caps the yen’s gains, as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals willingness to boost bond purchases if long-term yields increase too steeply. Even with USD-selling momentum, the dollar continues to be under pressure, weighed down by poor US economic data and persistent inflation worries. Japanese Yen bulls are going slow as falling JGB yields and chances of moreforceful BoJ rate hikes keep the currency’s regain in check, keeping the USD/JPY pair under the key 150 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Track BoJ actions on bond purchases and policy changes since they can shift market sentiment fast and impact USD/JPY levels through major thresholds. • Monitor JGB yield movements keenly, as falling yields may top the yen’s rise, capping potential USD/JPY rebound and impacting overall market dynamics. • Monitor US economic data releases, such as retail and PMI numbers, because worsening indicators may lead to rapid changes in investor sentiment. • Monitor key technical levels on USD/JPY, as breaks of support or resistance areas may facilitate directional moves and quickly shift market positioning. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Bank of Japan policy moves, as surprise bond-buying interventions or rate hikes could quickly change USD/JPY dynamics. Trends in Japanese Government Bond yields need to be closely watched because steadily falling yields could hamper yen advances and cap pair recovery. It is also important to watch U.S. economic data, including retail sales and PMI numbers, closely because deteriorating data can quickly turn market sentiment. Lastly, monitoring important technical levels on the USD/JPY pair is essential since breaks through set support or resistance areas may force sudden directional movements. Bank of Japan policy and Japanese government bond yields since any surprise movements may rapidly change USD/JPY dynamics. Closely monitor U.S. economic indicators and important technical levels for early indications of shifts in market sentiment. • Yen bulls are still guarded even at a two-month peak, as a result of worries about falling Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. • BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated potential for more bond purchases if yields surge, foreshadowing additional rate hike expectations. • Recent figures reporting Japan’s core inflation at a 19-month peak support projections of more forceful monetary policy tightening. • The USD/JPY pair remains below the pivotal 150 level, with technical resistance anticipated close to this psychological level. • Weaker-than-expected US economic data, such as a disappointing Walmart sales estimate and weakening PMI, have added to renewed USD selling. • Follow-through buying might push the pair upward towards resistance levels, while any weakness in support might set off a more abrupt fall. • There is support on the immediate side around the levels of 148.85-149.00, with downside targets possible at the 147.00 levels if these are broken. Investors in Japanese Yen are being cautious in light of changing market conditions, with expectations of continued policy tightening from the Bank of Japan being muted by efforts to stabilize government bond yields. The central bank has indicated that it is prepared to step in should bond yields climb too steeply, a gesture that highlights its determination to preserve financial stability while coping with the challenges presented by increasing inflation. Recent evidence of a persistent increase in core inflation has further cemented market hopes for more assertive action, even as such policy signals work to contain speculative action in the currency. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, United States economic indicators such as softer retail sales projections and deceleration in general business activity have added to balanced sentiment in international markets. Investors are still keeping an eye on the overall economic environment, where cautious optimism is slowly giving way to a more cautious approach. With policymakers watching these closely, the changing economic story on both sides of the Pacific is to influence monetary strategies in the future without causing sudden changes in market activity. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is currently struggling with major levels that may determine its immediate direction. The close proximity resistance around the 150.00 level acts as a psychological wall, and a prolonged break above this level could set the stage for the pair to aim for higher resistance around the 150.70-150.75 level and higher towards the 150.90-151.00 horizontal support. On the other hand, the region between 148.85 to 148.65 has proven to be a crucial support area, where a breakdown could pave the way for additional losses down to the 147.00-147.45 area. This technical configuration indicates that investors would be keenly watching these levels in order to assess the vigor of potential reversal or continuation moves on the pair’s path. FORECAST If sentiment improves, the USD/JPY pair may witness a gradual upward trajectory. A continued surge through the 150.00 psychological level can create a rally and enable the pair to probe resistance at around the 150.70-150.75 area and then advance towards the 150.90-151.00 zone. Such possible upmove would be underpinned by follow-through purchases and a positive reinterpretation of the policy position of the BoJ, which, if seen as an indicator of faith in Japan’s economic prospects, would fuel fresh investor sentiment. On the negative side, if the immediate support levels around 148.85-148.65 do not hold, the pair can see a sharper fall. A break in this region may trigger a quick change in sentiment, driving the pair lower towards the next support level in the 147.00-147.45 region. In such a case, ongoing vigilance among participants and fresh pressure from USD selling may intensify the fall, placing greater emphasis on these support levels in mitigating the downside risk.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rally Stalls at Record as Tariff Worries and Weaker U.S. Data Compel Pause

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  • February 22, 2025
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Gold rose for eight weeks running, reaching an all-time peak of $2,954 amidst uncertainty caused by widened U.S. tariffs imposed on lumber and soft commodities that further fueled market jitters. Whereas safe-haven buying drove bullion up against the backdrop of Trump’s strong trade rhetoric, conflicting U.S. economic readings—characterized by a positive Manufacturing PMI but a collapsed Services PMI, declining existing home sales, and softening consumer sentiment—kept investors tentative. Technical indicators indicate while gold’s upward bias is still intact, the possibility of retracement exists if there is a breach of major support levels around $2,900, all against the backdrop of expected monetary easing in 2025 by the Fed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s widening tariffs on lumber and soft commodities power market anxieties, driving safe-haven purchases, but pose downside risks in the context of global trade tensions. • While production improves, falling services PMI, decreasing home sales, and weaker consumer sentiment signal increasing caution. • Gold’s strength falters; an RSI exit from overbought levels and support at $2,900 could trigger a corrective pullback. • Central bank buying rose by more than 54% YoY, supporting bullishness in the face of trade uncertainty, while the Fed’s expected easing in 2025 is a long-term tailwind. Investors closely follow the deepening trade policy uncertainty as Trump’s soft commodities and lumber tariffs continue to stimulate market anxiety and safe-haven purchases. Meanwhile, diverging U.S. economic indicators come with rising manufacturing activity paired against contracting services PMI, softer home sales, and a cooling consumer mood to provide even greater caution. Technical indicators indicate that gold’s rally could be running out of steam, as the RSI leaves overbought levels and support at $2,900 is key. In addition, central bank buying jumped more than 54% YoY, and hopes for a 50 basis point Fed easing in 2025 provide additional bullish backing. Investors are paying close attention to Trump’s wider tariffs, which have sent gold prices to near historic highs due to safe-haven demand. Cautiousness may be appropriate based on mixed U.S. data and weakening technical momentum, with important support at $2,900. • Gold reached a new high of $2,954 following eight weeks of continuous increases. • Trump’s imposition of wider tariffs on lumber and soft commodities created market uncertainty. • American economic news recorded a higher Manufacturing PMI but a downgrading Services PMI. • Sinking current home sales and consumer attitudes deepened investors’ hesitations. • Indications in the technical arena show the market potentially reeling, with prime support around $2,900. • Central bank purchases surged more than 54% YoY, sustaining bull-like expectations. • Fed funds futures project that the next rate reduction will be a 50 basis point drop sometime in 2025. Gold has risen for eight straight weeks to a record $2,954 as policy uncertainty in global trade has been building. The announcement by President Trump to target tariffs on lumber and soft goods added to uncertainty in the markets, with investors turning to gold as a haven asset. Geopolitical anxiety underpinning the trend further involves ongoing diplomatic talks to calm the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has kept markets around the globe in a watchful mood. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Conversely, US economic data has a mixed report. Although there has been some resilience in manufacturing activity, softer services sector performance and weakening consumer sentiment indicate underlying economic issues. Moreover, the rise in central bank gold purchases indicates expanding optimism in the metal as a store of value. Investors continue to monitor further policy action, especially with hopes for a possible loosening by the Federal Reserve during 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis shows that although gold still has an upward bias, momentum seems to be waning since the Relative Strength Index leaves overbought conditions. Critical support is set near $2,900, and a violation of this level can open the doors for a drop towards prior swing lows. Alternatively, if the price succeeds in breaking through resistance near $2,950, it might reflect further upwards progress towards the $3,000 level. FORECAST If gold can break through important resistance levels—particularly around the psychological level of $2,950—then further bullish pressure could push prices to the $3,000 level. Positive global trade trends and ongoing central bank demand for gold could further support investor attitudes, leading to a prolonged rally and cementing the metal’s position as a safe haven. On the other hand, if gold fails to break through these resistance points or if newly released economic data indicates improved risk sentiment, a retracement back to the support level of $2,900 will be seen. A change in market fundamentals, perhaps an enhanced understanding of trade policies or good economic recovery indicators, would result in profit-taking and cause prices to pull back temporarily.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EURUSD Bounces Back to the Highs of Almost 1.0550 After a Dive from New Yearly Lows

EURUSD Bounces Back to the Highs of Almost 1.0550 After a Dive from New Yearly Lows EUR/USD erased substantial losses after a run of five consecutive negatives, bouncing to the areas around 1.0540 during Asian trading on Friday. This followed the US Dollar Index (DXY) taking its first retreats from the newest yearly high reached at 107.06. Both dovish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and mixed US economics data influenced the move. Despite the strength in Euro, the European Central Bank still remains cautious on the economic outlook, leaving its future movements toward the pair subject to developments both in the US and the Eurozone. EUR/USD’s Recent Rebound and the Pullback in the US Dollar The currency pair EUR/USD recovered some of the losses because of a correction within the US Dollar. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) had skyrocketed to 107.06 for the year, the reversal in this upward trend for the greenback, as well as its corresponding reversal for the Euro itself, contributed to a modest rebound for the Euro, and EUR/USD advanced toward 1.0540. US Dollar Pulls Back Some of the factors behind the U.S. Dollar’s pullback have been the slowdown of so-called “Trump trades,” that had been helping the dollar out in the first half of the year. These trades-tied very closely to expectations surrounding economic policies from the previous U.S. administration-have started to lose some of their momentum as market sentiment shifts. Simultaneously, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the US economy lighten the tone of the US Dollar. Powell described the US economic performance as “remarkably good, thus giving Federal Reserve some leniency to slowly trim its interest rates. Contrastively, such rhetoric is diametrically opposed to the more hawkish tone that had prevailed in communications until now by the Fed, thus questioning a change in policy that should continue to weaken the Dollar at least in the short term. Mixed US Economic Data Powell’s comments came simultaneously with the release of US PPI numbers. The PPI index increased 2.4% year-over-year in October, beating the revised 1.9% of September and more than the market’s expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the Core PPI for the month rose 3.1% YoY from 3.0% expectation, which eliminates food and energy prices. Although the data showed inflationary pressures were on the rise, which would play into the hands of the USD in the long run, the immediate reaction was tame because attention shifted to Powell’s more dovish talk over interest rates.The convergence of these factors saw DXY pull back, falling to around 106.80 at time of writing, providing some respite to the Euro and pushing EUR/USD higher from recent lows. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, by Richard Miles ECB in a Catch 22 Situation: How to Cut Rates while Tackling Inflation Though the Euro has gained a few percent against the US Dollar, European Central Bank ECB is now caught between the politics of rate cuts, and home-grown inflationary concerns. Home-grown inflationary pressures-the central issue for ECB officials-arise from the boost in wages. ECB is emphasizing more on cutting of interest rates. Showing an increased receptivity to cut rates, the central bank at the monetary policy meeting in October signaled that it was indeed turning its ears to the calls of the reducing economy. This news marks a change in tone especially since the growth fell way slower than expected, and equally, inflation data in the Eurozone remains weak. For Isabel Schnabel, an ECB board member, interest rates remain the prime instrument for policy changes but the secondary adding instruments are buys on bonds and forward guidance. While the ECB is paying increasing attention to cuts in rates, it has been quite cautious in taking concrete steps for some time now because the inflationary pressures continue unabated in the Eurozone. With hard-striving increases in wages coupled with the growth in labor productivity lagging behind, the raised fears of a wage-price spiral – where the increase in wages leads to higher prices that trigger even more wage increase in a spiral ride – belie this potential outcome working adversely for the ECB’s desired goal of putting inflation back on track. ECB Cautious on Inflationary Pressures The ECB is more sensitive to the realization that an early policy response, in this case, even some rate cuts, will mean high inflationary pressures. The central bank has thus indicated a need for more data before doing significant policy changes. The situation remains fluid, and the ECB is likely to continue monitoring the economic and inflationary landscape very carefully before making its next move. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is likely to continue struggling to find elusive momentum in growth. Most analysts think it will slow down in 2025. Cut in rates by the ECB would weaken the Euro further though the timing and full quantum of cut are still unclear. Key Economic Data to Watch The movements of the EUR/USD pair are likely to be sensitive to these upcoming data releases, especially from both the US and the Eurozone. Here are some of the key economic events and indicators to monitor in the coming days: US Economic Data US Retail Sales (October): Details about US retail sales may help explain the soundness of the US consumer-the very pulse of the whole economy. Better-than-expected retail sales can also be an additional strength for the US dollar if it translates to continued demand despite higher inflation. US CPI (Consumer Price Index): The main ‘event’ in the Dollar’s line-up will be the release of the US CPI report. In case inflation remains at these levels or even increases further, then this might lead to ideas about the Fed rate policy turnaround and hence a boost for the USD. Eurozone Economic Data Eurozone GDP Growth (Q3): The GDP data for the Eurozone will say much about its general health. Weaker growth than expected would only raise more concerns regarding the Euro outlook, while stronger growth could support the Euro in the short term.Eurozone CPI (Oct): Eurozone inflation

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