EUR/USD Steadies as Traders Wait for US Jobs Data and Services PMI for Fed Policy Hints
EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls as the primary driver for Fed policy expectations. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and soft US JOLTS job openings have fueled speculation of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, now priced at almost 97%. Traders, however, are reluctant to take large positions, fearing upside surprises in future labor market reports, leaving the Euro exposed within its established range of support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. KEY LOOKOUTS • The ADP Employment Change and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be pivotal in determining expectations for a September Fed rate cut. • Disappointing July retail sales reflect sluggish consumption, weighing on Euro sentiment. • Market expectations of a September rate cut jumped to 97%, with additional cuts possible in the coming months. • Support is at 1.1610–1.1590, while resistance is at 1.1680–1.1735, keeping EUR/USD stuck within its recent range. The EUR/USD pair is trading steady around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls set to be the primary driver for near-term direction. Weak Eurozone retail sales data put pressure on the Euro, while soft US labor market signals and dovish Fed comments have boosted expectations of a September rate cut. Despite easing debt concerns and falling bond yields, traders are reluctant to take large bets until more clarity is provided by upcoming US data, leaving the pair fluctuating within its recent support and resistance levels. EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1650 as markets wait for US jobs and services data for Fed policy hints. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and softer US labor signals keep the pair range-bound, with traders cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • EUR/USD trades around 1.1650 ahead of the US session, without clear direction. • Eurozone retail sales declined 0.5% in July, deeper than anticipated, weighing on the Euro. • US JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest in almost a year, indicating labor market weakness. • Fed rate cut expectations jumped to 97% for September, driven by weak economic data and dovish Fed rhetoric. • ADP Employment Change forecast at 65K, down from July’s 104K, raising job creation concerns. • ISM Services PMI forecast at 51.0, indicating modest improvement in US service sector activity. • Technical range continues with support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. The Euro is finding it difficult to gain traction as investors continue to focus on upcoming US economic data releases that are likely to offer clearer signals on Federal Reserve policy. A sharper-than-anticipated fall in Eurozone retail sales has weighed on sentiment, with weak consumer demand across the region. Meanwhile, softer US labor market signals, including a fall in job openings to the lowest level in almost a year, have supported expectations of Fed easing. Market participants are closely monitoring the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data, while Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be the most influential event for the week. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Broader market sentiment has stabilized following recent worries about global debt levels, with easing bond yields offering some comfort to investors. Fed officials have signaled the possibility of rate cuts beginning as early as September, which has supported bets on a more accommodative stance in the coming months. However, traders are still cautious, shying away from large positions until there is more clarity from the US jobs data. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD is likely to remain stable, with investor attention firmly on economic releases that could redefine expectations for monetary policy in the US and Europe. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to be contained within a well-defined range, without a decisive breakout. Immediate support is at 1.1610, with a firmer floor between 1.1575 and 1.1590, an area that has consistently stopped bearish advances in recent weeks. A deeper fall could test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1565, followed by the August low around 1.1530. On the upside, resistance is lined up at 1.1682, with further hurdles at the descending trendline around 1.1725 and the 1.1735 zone, which capped gains several times in August and early September. Until a clear move above these levels is made, the pair is likely to continue consolidating within its established limits. FORECAST If US labor data in the coming days confirms a sharper slowdown in employment, EUR/USD could gain traction as markets fully price in a September Fed rate cut. Softer-than-anticipated ADP or Nonfarm Payrolls reports would weaken the Dollar, paving the way for a recovery towards 1.1680 initially. A sustained break above this level could encourage further bullish momentum towards the descending trendline around 1.1725–1.1735, where firmer resistance lies. Alternatively, a stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report could dampen rate-cut expectations, strengthening the Dollar and putting pressure on the Euro. In that event, EUR/USD may slide towards the 1.1610 area, with a break below exposing the key support zone at 1.1575–1.1590. If selling gathers pace, further downside could target the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1565 and eventually the August low around 1.1530.