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USD/CHF Flatlines Before US NFP Release as Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Influence Market Sentiment

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair was flat at about 0.8290 in Friday’s Asian session as investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the highly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Hope for prospective trade deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan, together with China’s openness to discussing trade, offered some support to the US Dollar. Nevertheless, fears regarding tariffs’ effects on inflation and growth, as well as disappointing weaker-than-expected US GDP readings for Q1 2025, limited the Greenback’s gains. Also, ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially over Ukraine, may support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, curbing any potential USD gains before the NFP release, which is forecast to report 130K job additions for April. KEY LOOKOUTS •   Later on Friday, the release of the US NFP report is an event to monitor, with a forecast for 130K job additions in April. A deviation from this number could strongly affect USD/CHF. •  The continued evolution of US trade negotiations with India, South Korea, Japan, and China is of paramount importance. Favorable progress may underpin the USD, while setbacks or escalations may undermine it. •  The geopolitical environment, especially in Ukraine, is still a cause for concern. Any further escalation would trigger higher demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, which could weigh on USD/CHF. •  With the US economy shrinking by 0.3% in Q1 2025, market participants will be watching how economic growth issues, as well as inflationary pressures from tariffs, could impact the trajectory of the USD. USD/CHF pair is at the moment in a wait-and-see mode around 0.8290, as the traders wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) later today. The NFP, which is due to reflect 130K jobs added in April, may offer the pair some new direction. On the other hand, softening trade tensions, with possible deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China, can provide some support for the US Dollar. Yet, worries regarding the inflationary and growth effects of tariffs, combined with softer-than-forecast Q1 2025 GDP figures, are capping the Greenback’s gains. Moreover, tensions in Ukraine could fuel safe-haven demand for the Swissy, thereby limiting any USD advance. As a result, traders are following these events closely for any hints regarding the direction of USD/CHF going forward. USD/CHF is steady at 0.8290 prior to the US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is anticipated to show a rise of 130K jobs in April. Hopes regarding relaxing trade tensions can support the US Dollar, but fears over economic growth prospects and geopolitical dangers may cap any gains, thus keeping the Swiss Franc in play as a haven. • The USD/CHF currency pair is flat at 0.8290 as market players wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report release later today. • The April NFP report is likely to indicate 130K jobs added, which may affect market sentiment and the direction of the USD. • Postponed trade agreements between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China could prop up the US Dollar by alleviating trade tensions. • The US economy grew at a 0.3% decline in Q1 2025, softer than forecast, and may hint at growth worries and inflation concerns that will cap USD strength. • Further geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, may result in safe-haven demand, such as the Swiss Franc. • The Swiss Franc may gain as a result of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and cap any potential for the USD to rise. • Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance, sidestepping huge positions prior to the release of the NFP and the possibilities of large market-moving news. USD/CHF is staying firm as the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is on the cards to give clues to the well-being of the US labor market. With modest employment growth expected, the report would be able to influence the movement of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the outlook on US trade relations has improved somewhat, with agreements pending with nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan. This good news in global trade can help turn the market concerns around, providing support for the USD. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView But uncertainty over global economic conditions, especially following softer-than-expected US GDP figures for Q1 2025, still dampens sentiment. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions, like the conflict in Ukraine, also add to a risk-averse mood, supporting demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. While markets wait for the NFP report, most of the attention is still on wider economic and political events that may shape the USD/CHF pair in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF has been ranging around the 0.8290 level, with little price action in the run-up to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The pair is still in a tight range, reflecting market uncertainty before the release of the data. A break above or below the current range may give clearer direction, with resistance likely at 0.8320 and support around 0.8250. Such indicators as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are neutral, indicating that there is no strong momentum either way. Traders will tend to watch the NFP announcement closely for breakout indications or a change in momentum that may have an impact on the pair’s short-term path. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release beats forecasts and reflects better-than-expected job creation, the US Dollar may get some boost, helping USD/CHF move past present resistance at 0.8320. Encouraging news about US trade talks with major nations and relaxation in overall global trade tensions can also bolster the USD. Moreover, any decrease in geopolitical risks, particularly for Ukraine, may translate to less need for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, making the way for the USD to appreciate against the CHF. Conversely, however, if the NFP report fails to impress and shows weaker employment growth, or if fear over US economic growth increases with the latest GDP reports, the US Dollar may have a difficult time

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

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  • March 7, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens as traders exercise caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with market sentiment remaining subdued. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and a rising trade surplus, AUD/USD struggles due to ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over slowing global economic momentum. While the US Dollar (USD) is stable, backed by a decline in jobless claims, but mixed employment statistics and Federal Reserve policy ambiguity keep the market nervous. Technicals show AUD/USD testing critical support levels, with a risk of downside if the pair goes below the 50-day EMA. Investors now wait for the NFP data to decide the direction of the market. KEY LOOKOUTS • February’s NFP figure, due at 160K, is something traders look forward to, as it may impact USD strength and continue to weigh on AUD/USD. • An improving trade surplus and shrinking imports influence sentiment in the markets, with Chinese economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty acting as a burden on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s position on growth and inflation is still of great importance, with possible policy change affecting AUD direction. • AUD/USD tests the 50-day EMA at 0.6309; a break below it may trigger more falls, with major support at 0.6187. The Australian Dollar continues to weaken as investors go cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is anticipated to report a rebound in job creation to 160K. While Australia’s better-than-anticipated GDP growth and growing trade surplus are not enough to overcome global trade risks and tensions with China, AUD/USD lags, with geopolitical tensions in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook remains under the spotlight, with possible changes affecting investor sentiment. Technical indicators indicate AUD/USD testing crucial support on the 50-day EMA at 0.6309, while breaking below that level could initiate further losses towards 0.6187. The Australian Dollar loses strength with investors cautious in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, influencing market sentiment. Ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions push AUD/USD despite robust Australian GDP growth. Technical support at 0.6309 continues to be important, and a breakdown beneath hints at further potential for losses. • The Australian Dollar loses ground as investors hold back in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is forecasted to record job growth at 160K. • US Dollar remains strong underpinned by diminished jobless claims, though mixed employment information contributes to market uncertainty. • An increase in China’s trade surplus and weakening imports affects global trade flows, which has an impact on AUD/USD movement. • US/China tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty, put pressure on the Australian Dollar. • Investors monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attitude toward inflation and economic growth for signs of policy changes. • AUD/USD probes important support at 0.6309 (50-day EMA), with additional downside potential if this level is broken. • The NFP release will be a strong driver for USD strength or weakness, determining the next direction for AUD/USD. The Australian Dollar continues to be under selling pressure as the market players remain cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, an important gauge of the strength of the US labor market. The market players are keeping a close eye on international trade trends, especially China’s increasing trade surplus and falling imports, which have implications for Australia’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions are still influencing market sentiment, with doubt about US trade policy and potential Chinese reaction piling onto economic worries. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stuck with its forecast for economic growth to slow down, and although Australian GDP revealed stronger-than-anticipated growth in Q4 2024, general economic uncertainties are leaving investors cautious. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, sentiment remains mixed as economic data paint a contradictory picture of growth and stability. While claims for unemployment decreased, other measures of employment, including the ADP Employment Change, fell considerably short of projections, casting doubts on the labor market’s strength. Moreover, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy change are increasing as analysts argue about whether the Fed will focus more on curbing economic momentum rather than inflation issues. The next NFP report should give more clarity, and the market sentiment as well as investor strategy in the near term would be influenced by that. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a newly established rising channel, reflecting a possible bullish inclination in spite of recent downward pressure. The pair is presently trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6309, which is an important support level and could be the next point of direction. If this level is sustained, AUD/USD might try and challenge the initial resistance at 0.6408, the three-month high on February 21. A breakdown below this support, however, may allow lower levels, with the next significant support at 0.6187, the four-week low of March 5. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, which indicates that demand continues, but market reservation in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep aggressive moves in either direction under check. FORECAST AUD/USD may witness a rise, especially if the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release is disappointing and weakens the US Dollar. A disappointing NFP print, which would be weaker than anticipated, might raise speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thus supporting risk assets such as the Australian Dollar. Moreover, any encouraging news in China’s economic policies, like additional stimulus packages or improved trade performance, might favor AUD’s rebound. If the bullish pressure intensifies, the pair could try to push above the major resistance level of 0.6408, with a subsequent move towards 0.6440 if global risk appetite continues to improve. On the other hand, AUD/USD could be prone to further losses if the US NFP report comes in better than expected, pushing the US Dollar higher. A more robust labor market report may solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on rate cuts, driving up USD demand. Moreover, persistent trade

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Bats Below 0.5750 Amid Market Jitters and Significant Economic Events

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  • March 7, 2025
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NZD/USD continues to lose steam below 0.5750 amid market jitters in advance of China’s trade balance release and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement. The pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading at around 0.5730 in the Asian session. Meanwhile, international trade events, such as Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian imports from threatened tariffs and Canada’s slowdown in retaliatory tariffs, are still influencing market sentiment. The US labor market remains strong, with initial unemployment claims falling and NFP to increase to 160K in February. Besides that, China’s promise of more stimulus and a dovish move from the People’s Bank of China have assisted somewhat in support of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). But fears surrounding US policy uncertainty and possible Fed rate actions deter the strength of the US Dollar, placing the NZD/USD currency pair in a subdued trading band. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s trade balance report is followed closely by traders, which has the potential to affect NZD sentiment considering that China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. • The anticipated increase in US job additions to 160K has the potential to affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and influence the strength of USD against NZD. • Market sentiment is affected by Trump’s tariff exemptions and Canada’s postponed retaliatory tariffs, influencing risk appetite and currency fluctuations in the forex market. • Promises of additional stimulus and possible rate reductions by the People’s Bank of China would help support the NZD, offsetting overall market uncertainties. NZD/USD continues to be pressured as investors wait for major economic releases, including the release of China’s trade balance and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market mood is influenced by continued global trade news, such as Trump’s tariff exemptions on Mexico and Canada and Canada’s postponement of retaliatory tariffs. In the meantime, hopes of more stimulus from the government of China and the dovishness of the People’s Bank of China lend some strength to the New Zealand Dollar. But US policy uncertainty fears and the prospect of the Federal Reserve responding to slowing economy and inflation keep the US Dollar down, keeping the NZD/USD currency pair in a cautious range. NZD/USD is trading with caution below 0.5750 as the market looks to China’s trade data and the US NFP report. Global trade events and China’s stimulus plans drive sentiment, with uncertainty over Fed policy holding back the USD. • The pair is under selling pressure ahead of major economic data releases, as market caution prevails. • Investors are extremely careful watching China’s trade data, which has the potential to affect NZD due to China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. • The employment market is likely to improve, with payroll additions climbing to 160K, having a bearing on USD strength and Fed policy expectations. • Exemptions of Mexican and Canadian imports from potential tariffs under the USMCA affect global trade sentiment and risk appetite. • Canada delays its second round of tariffs on US goods until April 2, lowering near-term trade tensions. • Pledges of further economic stimulus by Chinese officials help support NZD with concern over global economic growth. • Expectations in the market move towards possible action by the Fed to curb economic slowdown, influencing movement in USD in the forex market. The market scene is still influenced by global economic events and policy measures, shaping investor perception and currency movement. Ahead of the release of China’s trade balance figures, market players are watching closely for its possible implications on international trade and economic expansion. With China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, any change in the dynamics of trade may have spillover effects on the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the United States’ performance in its labor market is also being eyed, with the next Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due to provide some clues about trends in the employment market and the overall stability of the economy. These events reflect the interlinkages between economies around the world and why such economic indicators need to be closely tracked. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Finally, policy announcements from major economies also have a big impact on market sentiment. The United States’ recent waiver of Mexican and Canadian products from threatened tariffs under the USMCA lightens trade tensions, while Canada’s hesitation on retaliatory tariffs adds to a stable trade atmosphere. In the meantime, China’s agreement to further stimulus measures indicates an activist approach toward maintaining economic growth, supporting confidence in its market policies. While central banks and governments deal with these economic woes, their actions will keep driving financial markets, business plans, and global trade relationships. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is in a cautious range, unable to build steam above significant resistance levels. The pair recently put an end to its losing streak near 0.5730 but has resistance at the 0.5750 level. A continued break above this level may pave the way for additional upside, while support on the downside is seen around 0.5700. Moving averages reflect a bearish to neutral bias, with sellers in control unless there is a breakout. Furthermore, momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD reflect a lack of strong bullish conviction, leaving the pair susceptible to additional consolidation in the near term. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience a rise, particularly if China’s trade balance figures are better than expected or if additional stimulus is introduced. A robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report would also enhance risk appetite, thereby indirectly favoring commodity-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. Technically, a move above the 0.5750 resistance level may pave the way for additional gains, with the next stop being around 0.5780–0.5800. A softer US Dollar, fueled by speculation of Federal Reserve policy changes, would further enhance the pair’s bullish momentum. To the downside, NZD/USD is exposed to bearish forces in case of disappointing Chinese economic statistics, which would trigger concerns of decelerating worldwide trade. An upbeat US NFP reading would further solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias, firming up the US Dollar and exerting bearish pressure on NZD/USD. If the pair cannot

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Steady around 0.5700, Traders Keep an Eye on US NFP and Fed Policy Cues

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  • February 7, 2025
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NZD/USD stays firm around 0.5700 as market players remain cautious of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release which is expected to have an influence on the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar keeps up its rebound momentum with support coming from a jump in Treasury yields, pushing the Dollar Index DXY toward 107.70. Market sentiment is fragile due to rising risk aversion with all these uncertainties about global trade. But ongoing discussions about tariffs by US and China could offer some comfort. Further, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to slash 50 basis points in February and put further pressure on Kiwi Dollar. KEY LOOKOUTS US Nonfarm Payrolls, which would shape monetary policy at the Fed, would impact the NZD/USD pairs volatility. • The Greenback’s rebounding, with a boost from the Treasury yields and economic data, may put upward pressure on NZD/USD if risk aversion increases. • Markets are pricing in 92% of a 50 basis-point rate cut in February, which can weigh on the New Zealand Dollar. • Risk sentiment may shape the movement of NZD/USD as US and Chinese leaders discuss potential rollbacks of tariffs. NZD/USD remains in a cautious range as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The US Dollar continues to recover, bolstered by rising Treasury yields and stronger economic data, pressuring the Kiwi Dollar. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains fragile with trade uncertainties continuing, though the discussions between the US and China regarding potential rollbacks of tariffs might bring some comfort. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to cut its rates by 50 basis points in February, adding more downside risks to NZD/USD as the market has priced in a high probability of further easing. NZD/USD remains range-bound ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data that may impact the Federal Reserve policy. The greenback has managed to regain ground, buoyed by Treasury yields, and has been exerting pressure on the Kiwi Dollar. Expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in February by the RBNZ are also affecting NZD/USD. • A US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to impact the Fed’s monetary policy and trigger market volatility. • Greenback trades are regaining strength on the back of rising treasury yields with DXY approaching 107.70. • Markets are expecting that in February, there will be a 50-point rate cut; it will give pressure on New Zealand Dollar. • Increased risk aversion due to trade and economic insecurity is impacting upside momentum for NZD/USD pairs. • The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.22% and 4.44%, supporting the US Dollar against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. • Market sentiment and the movement of NZD/USD may be influenced by the discussions between US and Chinese leaders regarding the possible rollbacks of tariffs. • NZD/USD is still relatively subdued following the weak performance of the previous session, failing to gain bullish momentum due to a cautious market outlook. NZD/USD stands at the levels around 0.5700 and is currently flat as participants take a wait-and-see approach before US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) arrives and is known to impact Federal Reserve monetary policy prospects. Meanwhile, the Dollar index continues rallying due to upward momentum in the Treasury yields; it has also pushed the Dollar Index towards levels around 107.70. Risk sentiment remains fragile as the world continues to be uncertain about global trade, especially on the US-China front, though potential tariff rollbacks may help alleviate some of the pain. Moreover, the latest US Initial Jobless Claims were higher than anticipated, which added another layer of uncertainty to the market. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Another reason the Kiwi Dollar is in a tough situation is that it is expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ, will announce a 50 basis point rate cut in February, taking interest rates to 3.75%. With market expectations at a 92% probability of additional monetary easing, NZD/USD may suffer from increased pressure on the downside. The weak price action exhibited by the pair is due to investors waiting for key economic data that will steer short-term price action. US Treasury yields continue to climb, adding further strength to the US Dollar, which restricts NZD/USD’s recovery from the previous session’s losses. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading near 0.5680, unable to make a sustainable rally as it was capped by the resistance area of 0.5700. The pair remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), suggesting a bearish trend. A break below the immediate support at 0.5660 could be extended further lower toward 0.5620. A decisive move above 0.5700 may push the pair further to the next resistance at 0.5745. The RSI is near the neutral 50 level, showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Traders will carefully monitor the US NFP releases for breakouts or further drops in NZD/USD. FORECAST NZD/USD will drop further if NFP data strengthen the case of a hawkish Federal Reserve which pushes the Dollar higher. Higher Treasury yields after a strong job report will add to the views of prolonged periods of higher interest rates, with NZD/USD falling towards key support 0.5660. If the bearish momentum is maintained, the next target could be 0.5620, with further declines towards the psychological level of 0.5600 in an extended selloff. Expectations of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February could keep the Kiwi Dollar under pressure in the near term. On the positive side, if US economic data disappoints and weakens the US Dollar, NZD/USD might recover above 0.5700. A softer NFP report might fuel speculation of an earlier-than-expected policy shift by the Federal Reserve, which would reduce the strength of the Dollar. The pair could test resistance at 0.5745, and further gains may extend toward 0.5780. Any positive news in US-China trade relations, such as the rollbacks of tariffs, will enhance risk sentiment and

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