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USD/CHF Fails Below 0.7945 as Markets Wait for Critical US NFP Release and Swiss Inflation Surprises

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  • July 3, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair is still capped below the 0.7945 level as markets wait for the much-awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Ongoing modest gains notwithstanding, the US Dollar continues to trade close to 14-year lows after a dismal ADP employment report, which strengthened speculations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprisingly went positive in June, mollifying deflation worries and providing some relief to the Swiss Franc. With the US economy forecast to create 110,000 jobs in June and unemployment expected to tick higher, today’s NFP report is likely to be instrumental in determining short-term USD direction and likely volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • A softer-than-anticipated jobs reading would raise Fed rate cut bets, further weakening the USD. • A return to positive inflation in Switzerland will provide support to the CHF by cutting deflation risk. • A forecasted rise to 4.3% US unemployment could depress USD sentiment if it is confirmed. • Strong 3.9% annual wage growth may provide some support to the USD if other job data disappoints. USD/CHF currency pair is under sell pressure below the 0.7945 resistance mark as investors look for direction from the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Though inching higher, the US Dollar is finding it difficult to bounce back from recent multi-year lows, under pressure from weak labor market readings and increasing hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc has gained some ground following positive inflation in Switzerland during June, which helped alleviate deflation risks. Market participants are looking carefully at the NFP numbers, which are predicted to reflect a slowdown in employment growth and a slight increase in unemployment rates, something that could have a strong bearing on short-term USD/CHF trends. USD/CHF remains below 0.7945 while markets wait for the US NFP release for new direction. Swiss inflation returns to positive rates to support the CHF, while poor US labor data restricts Dollar upside. Bulls are wary of rising Fed rate cut hopes and volatility from NFP. • USD/CHF stays capped below 0.7945 in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. • US Dollar is at multi-year lows, weighed down by dismal ADP jobs data. • Swiss Consumer Price Index climbed 0.1% YoY in June, reducing fears of deflation and bolstering the Franc. • 110,000 new US jobs are projected in June, lower than 139,000 in May. • US unemployment rate predicted to increase slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%. • Wages to stay steady at a 3.9% rate over the year. • NFP result may trigger a high degree of volatility, which will impact the expectations of Fed rate cuts and the USD sentiment. The USD/CHF currency pair is focusing investor attention before the US Nonfarm Payrolls release, as market sentiment continues to be bearish. The US Dollar has displayed modest strength in recent trading sessions, losing steam due to poor employment figures and growing rumors regarding Federal Reserve rate reductions. As the ADP report came in lower than expected, there are increasing concerns that the US labor market is not as resilient as thought, making today’s NFP release a pivotal event for influencing near-term expectations for monetary policy. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Swiss economy provided a gentle shock in that inflation finally went positive in June when the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1% year-on-year. This change helps temper previous deflation worries and provides some underlying basis for the Swiss Franc. Since both economies are showing disparate trends in data—US job markets weakening and Swiss inflation leveling out—investors are waiting anxiously for future numbers to gauge possible changes in economic trajectory and currency strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is contained below the major resistance level of 0.7945, showing ongoing selling pressure close to recent highs. The pair keeps failing to support any significant recovery, with the overall trend still weighted on the downside as long as it holds below this level. A continued breakout above 0.7945 would potentially allow room for additional gains, but a failure to do so might leave the pair susceptible to fresh bearish momentum. Support levels to monitor are in the vicinity of the 0.7870–0.7850 range, which may find buyers if reached. FORECAST If the release of the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes in higher-than-expected—registering better job additions, declining unemployment, or better wage increases—the US Dollar may catch a bid, driving USD/CHF upwards. A move above the 0.7945 resistance level would be expected to break out the bull, perhaps setting the stage for the 0.8000 psychological level. Better labor market statistics would also dampen expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, providing additional support for the Dollar in the short term. Conversely, if the NFP report establishes the weakness of the labor market, with diminishing job creation and growing unemployment, USD/CHF can face fresh selling pressure. A break below the 0.7870 support area would exacerbate losses further, provided it is accompanied by rising confidence in future Fed rate reductions. In this case, the pair may slide towards new multi-year lows, adding to the bearishness surrounding the US Dollar.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weighed Down by Stronger US Dollar and Risk Averse Markets as US NFP Report Looms

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  • June 6, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to be under pressure for the second day in a row with dismal domestic data coupled with increasing hopes over US-China trade negotiations detracting from the safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stays supported ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, though gains remain limited due to growing expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year. In spite of the prevailing bearishness surrounding the Yen, the disparity between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, as well as ongoing geopolitical concerns, could assist in limiting further declines in the JPY and limiting substantial upside to the USD/JPY pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are keenly observing the release of future US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which might have a considerable impact on USD/JPY direction based on the strength of the labor market and implications for Federal Reserve policy. • Speculation that the Bank of Japan might continue to hike rates as the Federal Reserve ponders cutting in 2025 might cap USD upside and underpin JPY resiliency on the medium term. • The USD/JPY currency pair is probing important resistance at the 144.00 level, and a breakout above it—especially above 144.40—can be seen as a sign of fresh bullish momentum. • Declining Japanese household spending and wages increase recession possibilities, which can weaken consumer activity and negatively impact JPY sentiment unless met with accommodative policy actions. Japanese Yen continues to decline against the US Dollar as a mix of weak Japanese economic data and upbeat sentiment regarding US-China trade relations suppresses demand for the safe-haven currency. The USD/JPY pair is still underpinned, though momentum is subdued ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which may tilt expectations for future Fed policy actions. As the Yen is under downward pressure, losses for it could be capped by the Bank of Japan’s growing hawkish attitude and ongoing geopolitical risks that might revive demand for safe-haven assets. The Japanese Yen is under pressure in weak domestic data and stronger US Dollar in the run-up to the NFP report. Nevertheless, BoJ’s hawkish bias and global tensions might limit additional JPY losses. Traders remain cautious around crucial technical levels. • The Japanese Yen is still on the backfoot for the second consecutive day on account of disappointing domestic spending and wage figures. • The US Dollar receives support from repositioning in anticipation of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. • Divergent policy expectations—BoJ tilting hawkish, Fed anticipating rate cuts in 2025—may cap any further USD/JPY gains. • Hopes regarding resumed US-China trade talks diminish the safe-haven demand for the Yen. • The 144.00 and 144.40 levels are pivotal resistance levels for USD/JPY, with bullish strength depending on a breakout. • A fall below 142.75 may open up the pair to further losses towards the support area of 141.60. • US fiscal worries and global tensions can prevent the JPY from falling sharply, acting as a safeguard for the currency. The Japanese Yen is currently under pressure downwards as recent economic figures from Japan indicate slowing consumer expenditure and falling real wages. These trends are of concern to Japan’s economic prospects, particularly as private consumption contributes a major percentage of the nation’s GDP. Concurrently, increased hopes about the return of US-China trade negotiations have reduced the appeal of the Yen as a safe-haven currency, and investors have turned towards riskier assets. In the meantime, the US Dollar is still relatively firm as traders look towards the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) soon, which will be an important gauge of the US labor market’s health and can have an impact on subsequent Federal Reserve policy making. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Despite the current pressure on the Yen, expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain a tighter monetary policy contrast with the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts next year, creating a policy divergence that could limit further depreciation of the Yen. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns about global economic stability continue to support demand for safer assets, including the Yen. Japan-US trade talks are also advancing, as Japan has put on the negotiating table a more flexible US auto tariff approach that could further impact currency trends. Overall, while the Yen is strained in the short run, there are many factors that could stabilize the currency in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a specific range, establishing a pattern since the beginning of the week. Strong resistance is seen at the 144.00 and 144.40 levels, the latter of which closely corresponds to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A clean break above those levels might reflect a change in favor of bullish traders, who might send the pair to the psychological 145.00 level. On the negative side, support levels near 143.50, 143.00, and below near 142.70 and 141.60 will be pivotal in deciding whether bearish pressure continues. Oscillator indices indicate mild bearish inclination at the moment, meaning that any rallies will encounter selling interest at resistance levels. FORECAST The short-term USD/JPY outlook indicates cautious upside potential if the pair is able to convincingly break and hold above the important resistance of 144.40. A move up could be bullish, prompting traders to drive the pair towards the next psychological hurdle at 145.00. The scenario would be supported by firm US economic numbers or increased risk appetite, maybe fueling additional USD strength versus the Yen. In contrast, if USD/JPY is unable to break resistance and instead drops below support levels around 143.50 and 143.00, the pair may encounter fresh selling pressure. An extended drop below 142.70 may intensify the downtrend, exposing lower support areas around 142.10 and 141.60. This bearish scenario would be driven by poorer US data, rising risk aversion, or rising bets for a more dovish Federal Reserve, which would favor the lower-yielding Yen.

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