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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Dollar Rises as Investors Look to US NFP Data and Fed Rate Cut Prospects

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  • September 5, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tops its counterparts on Friday, driving NZD/USD to the vicinity of 0.5870 before closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The risk-on market sentiment, underpinned by surging S&P 500 futures, fuels demand for the Kiwi, with the US Dollar experiencing selling pressure. Investors anticipate the NFP report to indicate modest job growth and a minor rise in unemployment, confirming market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Technical indicators, however, reveal conflicting momentum, with significant resistance around 0.5887 and risk of downside to 0.5800 if bearish indications intensify. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to indicate 75K job additions and unemployment at 4.3%. • Weaker labor statistics may support bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. • Higher S&P 500 futures reflect better risk appetite among investors, which supports the New Zealand Dollar. • Strong resistance is around the 20-day EMA at 0.5887 and support at 0.5800 and lower at 0.5730. The New Zealand Dollar rises against the US Dollar today, with NZD/USD trading at around 0.5870 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls releases. Market sentiment is still risk-on thanks to elevated S&P 500 futures, supporting demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. Meanwhile, the US Dollar loses strength ahead of labor market data set to reflect moderate job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, which is supporting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The technical indicators reflect mixed momentum, with resistance at 0.5887 and major support at 0.5800. NZD/USD tests around 0.5870 as the Kiwi leads peers prior to US NFP figures. Risk-on market sentiment and expectations of Fed rate cuts bear on the US Dollar. The key levels to monitor are resistance at 0.5887 and support at 0.5800. • NZD/USD rises to 0.5870 as the New Zealand Dollar leads peers in Friday’s European session. • Risk-on sentiment fuels demand for the Kiwi amid a rise in S&P 500 futures. • US Dollar inches lower before the release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls data, due at 12:30 GMT. • NFP anticipated at 75K job addition, with the Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 4.3%. • Fed rate cut expectations firm up, with markets heavily expecting a policy loosening this month. • Technical resistance anticipated around the 20-day EMA at 0.5887, while RSI remains around 40.00. • Major downside levels are 0.5800, 0.5730, and the psychological support level at 0.5700, with upside potential above 0.6000. The New Zealand Dollar picked up speed on Friday, with NZD/USD rising as investors turned positive ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Increased risk-on sentiment, underscored by gains in S&P 500 futures, fueled demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi Dollar. In contrast, the US Dollar weakened as market players prepared for new labor market data that could inform expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Friday’s release of NFP is expected to indicate modest growth in jobs accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment, which, if materializes, can further bolster the argument for a rate cut by the Fed during this month. The investors are keenly focused on these announcements because the US labor market statistics will probably determine the mood of the markets and monetary policy path in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is meeting resistance close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.5887, which continues to dictate the ceiling to rising moves. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 40.00, indicating declining bullish power and the danger of new bearish pressure if it continues to decline. On the contrary, a drop below the level of 0.5800 would leave the pair vulnerable to April’s low of 0.5730 as well as the psychological support at 0.5700, and on the flip side, a clear break above 0.6000 would leave the door open for gains to 0.6040 and 0.6100. FORECAST If NZD/USD is able to hold above the 0.5870 levels and cross the psychological level of 0.6000, the pair may pick up bullish momentum. This would hopefully invite fresh buying and set the stage towards June 19 high of 0.6040 and beyond to the September 11 low of 0.6100. A favorable risk-on sentiment and increasing Fed rate cut expectations would prove crucial in triggering this upside action. Conversely, a failure to maintain above near-term support levels could leave the Kiwi vulnerable to further selling pressure. A fall below the Aug 2 low of 0.5800 would indicate further frailty, clearing the way down to April’s low of 0.5730 and the key round-figure support at 0.5700. Stronger-than-anticipated US labour market statistics may drive a USD recovery, suppressing the NZD/USD pair.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of US NFP Amid Trade Optimism and Mixed Economic Signals

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  • August 1, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) stabilized on Friday, ending its six-day decline as markets became cautious before the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. The currency was supported after President Trump left Australia off the list of countries subject to new US tariff increases, with a 10% baseline tariff being kept in place that would favor Australian exports. Better-than-expected domestic data, such as retail sales and building permits, offered additional insulation, in spite of lower-than-anticipated inflation and producer prices. Soft Chinese manufacturing numbers, however, topping Australia’s biggest trading partner, placed a cap on gains. Following traders’ expectations of US labor market data and continued global trade news, the AUD/USD pair is stuck in a range, trading around 0.6430. KEY LOOKOUTS • There is a wait for US jobs data, which may have an impact on the Fed’s rate perspective and be the driver of USD strength or weakness and hence AUD/USD volatility. • Australia’s exemption from US tariff increases favors AUD sentiment and makes exports to the US market more competitive. • Weak Chinese PMI data is a bear risk to the AUD because Australia has significant trade exposure to China. • AUD/USD is resisted at 0.6487 (9-day EMA) and supported at 0.6421; a break in either direction might decide the short-term trend. The Australian Dollar remained firm on Friday, buoyed by trade sentiment after the US confirmed that Australia would not be slapped with higher tariffs, maintaining its competitiveness advantage in the US market. Even with persistent vigor in the US Dollar and softer Chinese manufacturing figures, the Aussie gained little respite from improved-than-anticipated local retail sales and building approvals. Investors are still wary of the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement, which may have a strong bearing on market sentiment and exchange rates. With divided economic indicators and geopolitical intrigue on the table, the AUD/USD pair continues to fluctuate around the 0.6430 level with scarce momentum in either direction. The Australian Dollar held firm at 0.6430 as market players waited for the US Nonfarm Payrolls data release. Encouragement was provided by firm Australian retail sales and relief from US tariff increases, though poor Chinese manufacturing data capped upside potential. • AUD/USD held firm at 0.6430, bringing an end to a six-day slide in cautious market sentiment. • Australia avoided new US tariffs, with a 10% baseline remaining, which is favorable for export competitiveness. • US Nonfarm Payrolls report is eagerly awaited, with the ability to influence USD strength and move AUD/USD. • Australia’s Retail Sales increased 1.2% MoM in June, coming in above consensus and reflecting strong consumer spending. • Building Permits increased 11.9% MoM, the best growth since May 2023. • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction and dampening AUD sentiment. •  Technical indicators are bearish, with AUD/USD below the 9-day EMA and RSI at less than 50. The Australian Dollar gained stability leading into the weekend as traders redirected attention to next week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The currency received mild support from the United States’ move to leave baseline tariffs on Australian imports in place, continuing to provide exporters with access to the US market without other trade restrictions. Australia’s Trade Minister highlighted the benefit this confers on Australian goods, helping lift volumes of exports. Locally, the economy continued to demonstrate resilience, with retail sales increasing more than anticipated in June and building permits registering a strong revival, indicative of strengthened momentum in consumer spending and housing activity. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nevertheless, external conditions remain threatening, specifically from China, Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Caixin and official PMI both reported weakening manufacturing conditions, emblematic of widespread economic woes. Although China’s government has pledged heightened fiscal stimulus to combat internal headwinds, the slowdown spells anxiety for Australia’s commodity-reliant economy. At the same time, global trade trends continue to be in sharp focus as the US executes new tariff agreements with other nations. The Australian Dollar is still responsive to such cross-border movement, as investors gauge how new policy and economic developments could affect the short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair still displays a bearish inclination, trading below important moving averages. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral 50 line, indicating poor momentum. The two are still trading below the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which adds to the short-term bearish pressure. The nearest support is at 0.6421, two-month low, with a possible slide towards three-month low of 0.6372 if selling increases. On the other hand, the resistance is around the 9-day EMA at 0.6487 and the 50-day EMA at 0.6495, which must be broken for any indication of recovery. FORECAST Should the next US Nonfarm Payrolls release be weaker than anticipated, it might cause a pullback in the US Dollar and provide room for the Australian Dollar to rebound. A break above the 9-day EMA at 0.6487 might convince buyers to drive the pair towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6495. Additional bullish push may continue to drive the rally towards the 0.6625 level, which is the eight-month high, particularly if solid Australian economic data and improving global risk appetite are maintained. On the other hand, better-than-expected US labor market statistics can spur expectations for a tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, which will support the US Dollar and bear down on the AUD/USD pair. A clear break below current immediate support at 0.6421 would set the stage for a more substantial drop to 0.6372, the three-month low. Further China’s economic indicators weakening or increased tensions in global trade could further depress AUD sentiment, having the pair in downward motion.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Steady Before US Jobs Data Amid Easing US-China Trade Tensions

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  • June 6, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices are steady at $62.20 as the market prepares for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, an important indicator that can sway the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Investors are also taking hope from signals of bettering US-China trade relations, after a constructive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. A reduction in trade tensions, particularly with China as the globe’s biggest oil importer, underpins oil prices by increasing optimism on steady global demand. Traders are upbeat but wary, with the next big price catalyst likely to be the upcoming US jobs report. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look to May’s jobs data, which can set the stage for future Fed interest rate action. • Weakness in labor demand could fuel rumors of rate cuts, boosting commodity prices such as oil. • A positive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi helps ease tensions, enhancing global oil demand prospects. • WTI crude consolidates around $62.20, as markets exercise caution prior to high-impact data and geopolitical events. WTI oil prices are trading in a stable range of $62.20 as investors have opted for a wait-and-watch game before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The jobs report is likely to provide new clues to the Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and any evidence of softening labor demand could be supporting expectations of dovish policy. In the meantime, oil is underpinned by increasing optimism about US-China trade relations, after a cordial conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Since China is the world’s biggest oil importer, relaxing trade tensions are viewed as a bullish crudes’ demand factor, which assists in stabilizing market sentiment. WTI crude maintains its position close to $62.20 as markets wait for the US NFP reading for indications on Fed policy. Hope of strengthening US-China trade relations is also supporting oil prices. Traders are on guard but optimistic about stability in demand. • WTI crude trades flat at $62.20 during European sessions. • US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May is due at 12:30 GMT. • The NFP release is crucial for shaping expectations on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. •  Weaker labor data may increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, supporting oil prices. • US-China trade tensions show signs of easing after a positive call between Trump and Xi. •  Beijing confirms diplomatic engagement, reflecting efforts to stabilize relations. • Improving US-China ties favor global oil demand, offering fundamental support to WTI. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is flat as markets concentrate on two key worldwide news: the soon-to-be-released US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and indications of enhanced US-China ties. Investors pay particular attention to the NFP report since it will determine the direction that the Federal Reserve takes in subsequent interest rate decisions. A weakening labor market might encourage the Fed to explore more dovish monetary policy, which would normally favor commodity markets such as oil. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Diplomatic developments between the United States and China also support sentiment in the oil market. Recently, a phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, which has been characterized as positive by both parties, generated optimism regarding easing trade tensions. As China is the world’s biggest oil importer, any betteirment in bilateral relations with the US would be viewed as a good sign for the world’s energy demand and market stability. Such geopolitical optimism is contributing to sustaining prices of oil. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is consolidating around the $62.20 mark, showing a period of indecision while traders wait for a breakout catalyst. The price is trading near the important moving averages, indicating a short-term neutral bias. A break above the immediate resistance could set the stage for more advances, and a break below the near support levels could indicate renewed bear pressure. The momentum indicators are fairly flat, which supports the contention that a discerning directional trigger—such as the imminent US NFP data—is required for the next meaningful price move. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates weakening labor market conditions, it may raise market expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. This may have the effect of weakening the US Dollar, which would have the resultant effect of supporting crude oil prices indirectly. Moreover, if the improving sentiment in US-China trade relations persists, then it may improve global economic sentiment and translate into higher expectations for oil demand, thus enabling WTI to potentially move upward past key resistance levels in the near term. Conversely, however, if the NFP report shocks with better-than-anticipated job growth, it can reinforce the argument for the Fed to keep or even tighten policy, pressuring oil prices. In addition, any unforeseen deterioration in US-China trade relations or fresh geopolitical tensions can deflate risk appetite and cut demand projections, raising the potential for a pullback in WTI crude below existing support levels.

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