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USD/CAD Reaches Weekly Highs on USD Strength, But Increases Might Be Limited in the Face of Important Economic Releases and FOMC Minutes

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  • May 28, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair has continued to recover for a third straight day, rising to a new weekly high at the 1.3840 level due to slight US Dollar appreciation after robust US economic reports. Yet, still lingering over the US fiscal horizon and increasing hopes of Fed rate reductions in 2025 might cap further gains. On top of this, traders are being cautious before the FOMC meeting minutes and major economic announcements, such as US GDP, PCE statistics, and Canada’s monthly GDP. Though higher crude oil prices and firmer Canadian inflation statistics might underpin the Loonie, a conclusive trend might only be seen with continued follow-through buying. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Traders will be keeping a close eye on the minutes for insight into the Fed’s interest rate outlook, which may determine USD sentiment and near-term price action. •  The coming Prelim Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index releases will be pivotal in influencing expectations for future Fed policy action and shaping USD demand. •  Canada’s monthly GDP and variations in crude oil—Canada’s major export—will be crucial in deciding CAD strength. •  Continuous worries over the US fiscal health can keep the USD under pressure, keeping gains in the USD/CAD pair in check even with positive information. USD/CAD pair trades at weekly highs, market players are closely eyeing a number of crucial factors that can decide its next direction. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes is eagerly awaited, as investors want to know the Fed’s rate-cut path. Along with that, the next US economic data releases—specifically the preliminary Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index—will be crucial in deciding the momentum of the USD. On the Canadian front, more-than-anticipated core inflation and the next monthly print of GDP, along with crude oil price fluctuations, may provide the Loonie with support. Also, ongoing worries regarding the US fiscal horizon could still limit the greenback’s appreciation, contributing to the pair’s short-term ambiguity. Traders are looking to the FOMC meeting minutes and leading US data such as Q1 GDP and PCE for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. On the Canadian front, firmer inflation and coming GDP prints, as well as oil price action, may underpin the Loonie. US fiscal issues may also cap additional USD gain. • USD/CAD is trading around 1.3840, a third consecutive day of rising gains and a new weekly high. • Positive US economic data has propped up the USD, alleviating recession concerns and boosting the DXY. • FOMC meeting minutes are expected for some clarity on the Fed’s rate-cutting outlook in 2025. • US fiscal issues and dovish Fed expectations could cap further gains for the USD. • Prelim US Q1 GDP and PCE Index figures may have a strong bearing on the direction of the USD this week. • Warmer Canadian core inflation has taken away some possibility of a June BoC rate cut, supporting CAD strength. • Crude oil price action and Canadian monthly GDP will be major drivers for the Loonie. The USD/CAD pair is still in the spotlight this week as a number of significant economic events on both sides of the border continue to happen. The US Dollar is finding support from some recent encouraging economic data, which has helped to alleviate some recession fears and lift sentiment in the markets. While investor attention is firmly focused on the upcoming release of FOMC meeting minutes, which should give more definitive direction on future interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, persistent worries about the US fiscal picture are causing volatility and may affect the overall demand for the USD in the near future. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Canada, better-than-anticipated core inflation readings have caused the market expectations for potential interest rate reductions by the Bank of Canada to change. This, along with higher crude oil prices, has supported the Canadian Dollar beneath. In the coming week, the release of Canada’s monthly GDP report will be under keen observation for additional evidence of economic strength. Along with the important US releases of Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index, these are the elements most likely to determine the market mood towards the USD/CAD currency pair for the rest of the week. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has continued its recovery from the recent low around the 1.3685 area, with the pair now sitting near the 1.3840 resistance area. This area represents a significant barrier, and a breakout above it can be a signal of bullish continuation in the short term. Still, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are nearing overbought levels on the daily chart, which means buyers might get tired if the pair is unable to break higher convincingly. On the bearish side, near-term support is around the 1.3780 level, followed by the 1.3725-1.3700 area, which would serve as a cushion if the pair is subject to selling pressure. FORECAST If the bullish trend remains and USD/CAD decisively breaks above the 1.3840 resistance zone, then the pair may target the next levels on the upside at 1.3880 and possibly 1.3915. More robust US economic data and a hawkish interpretation of FOMC meeting minutes will fuel additional support for the USD to drive the pair further up. Moreover, any backtracking in crude oil prices or softer-than-anticipated Canadian GDP figures might soften the Canadian Dollar, providing more space for further upsides. Alternatively, a failure to sustain above the 1.3840 threshold might spark a short-term correction, with near-term support around the 1.3780 region. A more severe pullback can also challenge the 1.3725–1.3700 support level, particularly if US data is disappointing or if the FOMC minutes suggest a more dovish policy. Some strong Canadian economic data or a continuation of the oil price increase can also reinforce the Loonie and push the pair down towards a revisit of the recent low around 1.3685.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Extends Losses with Crude Oil Strength and Dovish Fed Outlook

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  • May 22, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair continues to trade with a bearish trend, extending losses for the fourth day in a row in response to bolstering crude oil prices and reduced prospects for a Bank of Canada rate reduction. The Canadian Dollar is supported by warmer-than-anticipated domestic inflation numbers, whereas the US Dollar continues to suffer due to dovish Federal Reserve hopes, fresh US-China trade tensions, and increasing fiscal worries after a US credit rating downgrade. Technically, a break below the critical 1.3900 support and rejection from the 200-day SMA further increase the bearish outlook, making the pair susceptible to greater losses in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • More robust than expected Canadian core inflation has taken some sting out of the chances of a near-future rate cut by the Bank of Canada, offering underlying support to the Loonie. • Being a commodity-linked currency, the Canadian Dollar is inextricably linked with oil prices. Any persistent rise in crude oil—under geopolitical tensions or supply issues—can further buoy the CAD. • Traders are waiting for forthcoming US macro data, such as flash PMIs, for signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory, with dovish sentiments keeping the USD under pressure. • The inability of the pair to remain above the 1.3900 level and rejection against the 200-day SMA indicate sustained bear pressure, with more falls to come should support at 1.3810 be broken. Traders should closely monitor key drivers influencing the USD/CAD pair, including the impact of elevated Canadian inflation on the Bank of Canada’s rate path, which currently tilts against a near-term rate cut and supports the Loonie. Crude oil prices remain a crucial factor, with recent gains driven by geopolitical uncertainty continuing to bolster the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. In the meantime, the US Dollar remains under pressure from dovish expectations about the Federal Reserve and the issue of US fiscal stability, particularly after being downgraded by Moody’s credit rating. From a technical perspective, the pair’s inability to retake the 1.3900 level and its rejection of the 200-day SMA support a bearish direction, with traders on high alert for a possible break below the 1.3810 support area. USD/CAD is under pressure as increasing oil prices and higher Canadian inflation support the Loonie. Dovish Fed expectations and US fiscal worries weigh on the US Dollar, while a decline below 1.3810 could indicate further declines for the pair. •  USD/CAD is trading with a bearish bias, extending its losses for the fourth day running. •  Reversal in crude oil prices supports the Canadian Dollar owing to its commodity-linked nature. •  Higher-than-anticipated Canadian inflation lowers the prospect of a June cut by the Bank of Canada. •  US Dollar declines in line with dovish Federal Reserve hopes and increasing fiscal worries. •  US sovereign credit rating downgrade by Moody’s adds to pressure on the USD. •  Technical breakdown under 1.3900 and rejection from the 200-day SMA indicate sustained downside risk. •  Focus turns to US macro data due later in the day and global flash PMIs for new trading signals. The USD/CAD currency pair is still saddled by wider macroeconomic considerations affecting the US Dollar as well as the Canadian Dollar. On the Canadian front, recent inflation numbers were higher than anticipated, lowering the potential for an instant interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada. This has bolstered faith in the Loonie, particularly when coupled with the recovery of crude oil prices, which are the backbone of Canada’s economy. Stronger oil prices, underpinned by geopolitical tensions like uncertainty over US-Iran nuclear talks, still provide support to the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the American side, the Dollar is under constant pressure because of escalating fiscal worries and weakening expectations regarding upcoming interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Moody’s sovereign downgrade of the US credit rating and anxieties regarding swelling deficits have triggered caution among investors. Furthermore, tensions between the US and China have reemerged, also placing the USD under increased risk aversion, adding to the pressure on the currency. Market participants are now intently following future economic indicators, including US macro data and world flash PMIs, for clues that may affect the policy direction and investor appetite in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still under pressure after it was unable to stay above the key 1.3900 level and was rejected close to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating bearish momentum. The recent breakdown of the pair below a short-term consolidation area indicates a change in sentiment in the direction of sellers. If the support area of 1.3810–1.3800 is broken convincingly, it may pave the way for a further decline towards the next significant support levels. Momentum indicators also have a negative bias, supporting the possibility of further downside in the short term. FORECAST USD/CAD is able to remain above the 1.3800 support area and experiences fresh buying interest, a bounce towards the 1.3900 level may be in the pipeline. A move above this area would invite new bullish interest, with the potential to see the pair return to the 1.3950–1.3980 zone. To experience an ongoing upside drive, the pair would have to regain and stay above the 200-day SMA, currently serving as a major resistance. Positive surprises in future US economic data or a recovery in US Treasury yields would also be able to sustain a USD recovery, causing the pair to strengthen in the near term. Conversely, a strong break below the 1.3810–1.3800 support will likely lead to a deeper correction, exposing the next downside targets at 1.3750 and maybe 1.3700. Ongoing rigidity in crude oil prices and sustained cooling of US economic data would most likely continue to keep the Canadian Dollar underpinned, exerting pressure on the pair. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to stick to its dovish stance and US fiscal worries remain, the bearish scenario could deepen, keeping USD/CAD susceptible to more losses during upcoming sessions.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Clings to Muted Levels Below 1.3950 as Complacent US Inflation and Trade Sentiment Command Market Mood

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  • May 14, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair continues to hold low below the 1.3950 level, pressured by a softer US Dollar in the wake of lower-than-anticipated US CPI releases that has rekindled speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts towards the end of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to about 100.15, as geopolitical trade tensions introduce another degree of uncertainty, with Canada nudging to eliminate Trump-era tariffs before any talks with the US. On the other hand, declining oil prices, fueled by increasing US crude inventories, are exerting gentle pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Traders now wait for critical US economic data and statements from Fed Chair Powell for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Thursday’s release of April’s PPI, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims will be keenly observed for evidence of inflationary trends and consumer demand, shaping USD sentiment. • Market players will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech closely for any clues on the upcoming interest rate path, especially with growing expectations of possible rate cuts. • Continued attempts by Canada to phase out Trump-era tariffs have the potential to influence future trade negotiations and influence CAD strength based on progress and US reactions. • As a large oil producer, Canada’s currency is still exposed to crude oil price moves; recent inventory numbers indicating growing US stockpiles potentially continue to put pressure on WTI prices and negatively affect the CAD. Markets are presently centered on some major events that may dictate the USD/CAD direction in the short term. High-impact US releases, such as April’s Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims, will provide new insights into the condition of the US economy and inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week is also under the limelight, with investors looking for clarity on the central bank’s policy stance as expectations of rate cuts grow. Geopolitically, Canada’s efforts to scrap Trump-era tariffs bring an element of uncertainty, which could impact future trade flows and the Canadian Dollar. Crude oil prices are also a key driver, with increasing US inventories bearing down on WTI and Markets are looking to important US economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments for direction on future rate action in the face of growing rate cut expectations. Trade tensions between the US and Canada, as well as declining oil prices, put additional pressure on the Canadian Dollar and USD/CAD forecast. •  USD/CAD is unchanged around 1.3950, trading below the 200-day EMA with ongoing pressure on the US Dollar. • Downside US CPI numbers have boosted the chances of rate cuts from the Fed, weakening the USD and taking the DXY down to near 100.15. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today is eagerly awaited for any policy cues on the future interest rate trajectory. • Thursday’s US releases – PPI, Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims – may cause short-term USD/CAD volatility. • Canada’s efforts to end Trump-era tariffs have revived trade worries, further complicating the CAD. • WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $62.93, burdened by an unexpected build in US crude stocks, weakening the oil-correlated CAD. • Cautious sentiment in the market, with economic indicators and geopolitical tensions set to decide the next direction of the pair. USD/CAD currency pair is now driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical forces that are directing investor sentiment. Recent United States inflation numbers have rekindled debates surrounding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, with markets speculating that interest rate cuts may be back on the agenda this year. This change in expectations is affecting confidence in the US Dollar, making the tone for currency markets to be cautious. In the meantime, focus is also shifting to future US economic data releases and a planned speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, both of which are likely to provide more insight into the direction of Fed policy. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitically, trade relations between the United States and Canada are again in the spotlight. Canada has said that the priority in any renewed negotiations with the US would be to have tariffs imposed under the Trump administration repealed. The latest comes at a time when world trade patterns remain fragile, and any improvement or reversal in the talks could weigh on the larger Canadian economic picture. In addition, price volatility in oil continues to exert a backburner influence on the Canadian Dollar, as the nation is such a major exporter of crude. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is having difficulty getting traction as it remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an important indicator which is commonly regarded as a long-term trend indicator. The fact that the pair has failed to breach above this level implies sustained bearish pressure, and buyers have hesitated in the 1.3950 resistance area. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also point towards a neutral to mildly bearish bias, reflecting limited upside power. Unless the pair closes decisively above the 200-day EMA, the ongoing range-bound action is likely to continue, with levels around 1.3880 gaining prominence in case of fresh selling. FORECAST If future US economic statistics surprise to the upside—like higher-than-anticipated retail sales or producer price inflation—it may reactivate demand for the US Dollar, providing support to USD/CAD. A dovish-sounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also propel expectations of postponed rate cuts, perhaps sending the pair above the 1.3950 resistance. In this situation, a prolonged breach above the 200-day EMA may initiate further upside towards the psychological 1.4000 level and above, particularly if crude oil prices continue to be soft, softening the Canadian Dollar. On the other hand, in case of disappointing US data or if Powell hints at a dovish policy approach, interest rate cut hopes might gain strength, increasing pressure on the US Dollar once again. This may lead to a fall in USD/CAD, particularly if oil prices come back and buoy the Canadian Dollar. A fall below significant support levels near 1.3880 may cause the pair

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Currencies

USD/CAD Declines Below 1.3850 as Dollar Retreats Ahead of Highly Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CAD pair fell below the 1.3850 level in Friday’s Asian session, trading around 1.3830, as the U.S. Dollar receded ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Although the greenback had gained some strength recently, investor caution re-emerged with doubts about how current tariff measures are affecting job growth. Greater positive sentiment in the market, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s positive comments on trade agreements with major Asian allies provided some relief to the USD. In contrast, softer-than-anticipated economic reports from both the U.S. and Canada—such as increasing U.S. unemployment claims and a third consecutive drop in Canada’s Manufacturing PMI—added to the conservative tone. The Bank of Canada’s recent meeting minutes also indicated a contained policy stance, dampening hopes of near-term rate reductions in spite of continued economic weakness. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are all eyes on Friday’s NFP reports for indications of how tariffs and trade tensions are impacting the U.S. labor market, and possibly impacting the direction of the USD. • Any breakthrough or delays in U.S. trade talks with China, India, Japan, and South Korea may determine market mood and USD strength. • While the BoC has kept rates steady in the face of sticky inflation and a robust labor market, future economic releases will be pivotal in determining future rate expectations. • Further softness in Canada’s manufacturing sector and other macro datapoints could bear down on the CAD, particularly if economic slowdown accelerates. USD/CAD pair are the following U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which might offer vital information on the effects of tariffs on employment and shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market participants are also watching events on the trade front, as any improvement in U.S. negotiations with China, India, Japan, and South Korea might enhance risk appetite and underpin the U.S. Dollar. On the Canadian side, ongoing weakness in manufacturing—dramatized by April’s steep decline in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI—may continue to stress the Canadian Dollar. Further, the Bank of Canada’s conservative policy tone, as embodied in its most recent meeting minutes, indicates that rate decisions will continue to be highly data-sensitive, so coming economic releases will be important for the CAD outlook. Traders are keeping a close eye on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for indications of the impact of tariffs on the labor market, which may alter USD sentiment. Poor Canadian manufacturing figures and the Bank of Canada’s conservative approach contribute to downside pressure on the CAD. Trade updates also continue to be a primary market driver. •  USD/CAD dipped below 1.3850, trading at around 1.3830 during Friday’s Asian session with a lull in the recent rally of the U.S. Dollar. • Investor attention is on the forthcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which can provide insights on whether tariffs are impacting employment trends. • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 241,000, exceeding estimates and introducing caution to the economic outlook. • The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, still in contraction but better than predicted, providing mixed signals. •  Canada’s Manufacturing PMI dipped to 45.3 in April, lowest since May 2020, indicating ongoing sectoral weakness. • Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75%, due to sticky core inflation and a firming labor market, but left the door open for future rate cuts. • Optimistic market sentiment trailed following U.S. President Trump’s comments on the possibility of trade agreements with significant Asian economies, providing partial support to the USD. Investor sentiment in the USD/CAD cross is being influenced by a combination of economic data and geopolitical events. With the focus now shifting to the impending U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, markets are looking forward to gaining some insight into how existing trade policies, most notably tariffs, are potentially impacting employment and general economic activity. The latest comments from U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at possible trade deals with nations such as India, Japan, and South Korea have also alleviated some of the concerns related to trade. Moreover, news of China being willing to resume talks with the U.S. has also added to a slightly positive market sentiment. USD/CAD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Canada, economic data continues to reflect strain, especially in the manufacturing segment. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined for the third consecutive month in April to its weakest since the beginning of the pandemic. In spite of these conditions, the policy rate was left unchanged by the Bank of Canada due to entrenched core inflation as well as an unemployment market which proved surprisingly resistent. With both economies charting mixed data and shifting trade dynamics, market players are prudent, awaiting future economic releases and policy announcements for firmer guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has retreated after it failed to hold above the resistance 1.3850 level, hinting at a possible short-term consolidation. The duo is now trading around the 1.3830 level, with short-term support at 1.3800, a level that has served as a psychological floor in recent sessions. A breach below this support would pave the way towards 1.3750. On the higher side, a move above 1.3850 would be required to be sustained to restore bullish momentum, with the next resistance likely at 1.3900. Momentum tools like the RSI are turning lower, hinting at a possible continuation of range-bound behavior unless there is a robust catalyst. FORECAST Unless strong catalysts occur, like better-than-expected U.S. economic statistics on the next major releases, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls, this optimism in USD will fade and can potentially favor further downward moves to CAD. Strengthening trade sentiment, most likely should breakthroughs emerge on trade deals with China or other significant trading partners, might support positive momentum as well. Technically, a breakout above the 1.3850 resistance level could set the stage for the 1.3900–1.3950 range, particularly if risk appetite sours and investors flock to the safety of the USD. Conversely, however, if U.S. jobs data sends the wrong message or hints at slowing economic growth owing to tariff pressures, the USD could face fresh selling pressure. Dollar weakness would drag USD/CAD down,

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Currencies

USD/CAD Falls Below 1.4100 Pre-US CPI Data Due to Weak Dollar and Pressure in Oil Market

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  • April 10, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair remains trading lower, falling below the 1.4100 level as the US Dollar continues to be under pressure prior to the eagerly awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Anticipation of a modest dip in both headline and core inflation has cooled USD demand, with markets rethinking the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut. The Canadian Dollar also has its own headwinds as weakening oil prices—brought about by rising US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about demand—bear down on the commodity-sensitive currency. Despite weakness in the USD, these countervailing forces are expected to cap the pair’s downside. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A softer-than-anticipated inflation figure may spur rumors of future Fed rate reductions, which could be a further drag on the US Dollar. •  As a significant Canadian export, falling crude prices due to worldwide demand worries and US-China trade tensions might cap CAD advances. •  Reaction to last week’s FOMC Meeting Minutes will continue to be pivotal, particularly about balancing inflation taming and economic slowdown. •  Any intensification of trade tensions might trigger risk-off sentiment, impacting oil prices and general currency market flows. The USD/CAD pair is down pressure below the 1.4100 level as investors wait for the US CPI inflation reading, which has the potential to influence expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. A lower inflation print would likely raise speculation on rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar further. But the Canadian Dollar is also coming under headwinds with declining oil prices amidst renewed concerns about demand triggered by rising US-China trade tensions. These counterforces—USD weakness against CAD vulnerability on sliding crude—are poised to create a tug-of-war in the pair’s direction, sustaining volatility in the near term. USD/CAD trades below 1.4100 as investors await key US CPI data, with expectations of a slight cooldown in inflation. While the US Dollar remains subdued, falling oil prices amid US-China trade tensions weigh on the Canadian Dollar, limiting further downside. • USD/CAD trades below 1.4100 for the second consecutive day amid US Dollar weakness. • March US CPI data are due, with inflation projected to slow to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. • Core CPI is predicted at 3%, down slightly from the last 3.1% reading. • FOMC minutes reveal concern over increasing inflation and decelerating growth, implying dovish Fed policy. • Market pricing indicates a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut next meeting, representing uncertainty. • WTI crude oil is close to $60.20, weighed down by demand concerns driven by US-China trade tensions. • Canadian Dollar is still susceptible to declining oil prices, topping gains against weakening USD. The USD/CAD currency pair is in the limelight as the market waits for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. This report is viewed closely because it gives information about inflation patterns within the United States, which greatly influence Federal Reserve actions. Mild cooling of inflation relative to the last month will be expected and may shape investors’ sentiments of future monetary policy actions. Concurrently, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes indicate that policymakers are closely walking a tightrope between inflation fears and risks of a decelerating economic growth. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In addition, external pressures like global trade tensions are fueling market uncertainty. Fresh tensions between the US and China have renewed concerns about global demand, especially in the energy markets. Since oil is a crucial component of the Canadian economy, these events are being closely watched. The movement of crude oil prices and their reaction to overall economic signals will remain a key consideration for the Canadian Dollar. With both the US and Canadian economies having unique issues, market players are watchful in anticipation of any major economic releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD continues to exhibit signs of weakness as it continues below the psychological level of 1.4100. The currency pair has dipped below short-term support levels, reflecting a bearish near-term bias. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate poor upside potential since they are resting close to neutral levels, and moving averages are beginning to tilt downwards, enhancing selling pressure. Should the pair be unable to hold its ground at or above 1.4100, however, it would begin to weaken to the next level of support around 1.4050, while a solid break higher at 1.4100 could set up the retesting of 1.4150 resistance. FORECAST In the event the US CPI for tomorrow surprises higher on the back of more solid-than-expected inflation, then the US Dollar will be pushed upwards by reinforcing the Fed’s hold-back from further interest rate cutting. A resurgence of USD strength could assist USD/CAD in rising back above the 1.4100 level, with possible levels of resistance at 1.4150 and 1.4200. Also, any indications of stability or rebound in oil prices would assist the Canadian Dollar, but if oil demand prospects are brightened by softening global tensions, the pair’s higher limit could be curtailed. Conversely, a weaker inflation print might revive hopes of Fed rate cuts, pulling the US Dollar down and further lowering USD/CAD. A fall below the current support at 1.4050 might result in a more pronounced pullback towards 1.4000 or even 1.3960. If oil prices remain low based on ongoing demand issues or lingering US-China trade tensions, the Canadian Dollar might depreciate even more, halting the descent of USD/CAD even if there is stress on the US Dollar.

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USD/CAD Remains Flat Below 1.4350 On Fed Speculation and Canadian Politics

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  • March 24, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair begins the week cautiously trading just below the mid-1.4300s as conflicting market signals keep traders and investors nervous. While hopes of an eventual Fed rate cut dampen the US Dollar, lower Crude Oil prices and political instability in Canada—after Prime Minister Mark Carney demanded a snap election—cap the Canadian Dollar’s appreciation. In spite of intraday declines, the pair is still within last week’s range, indicating a lack of direction. With US PMI data and FOMC member speeches coming up, along with volatile oil prices, traders are waiting for new signals to decide the next direction in USD/CAD. KEY LOOKOUTS • Flash PMI prints and comments from prominent Federal Reserve members may steer short-term market sentiment and USD direction. • Short bets on an impending Fed rate-cut cycle are still a dominant force for USD movements and will keep influencing the trend in USD/CAD. • The surprise call for a snap election by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney injects uncertainty and could cap any sharp rise in the Canadian Dollar. • As a commodity-based currency, the CAD is still vulnerable to price movements in crude oil, so oil market fundamentals are an essential factor to monitor. Several factors affecting the USD/CAD in the short term need to be monitored closely by traders. Market interest will continue to be on US economic releases, specifically the flash PMI prints and Fed official speeches, which might provide new insights into the central bank’s monetary policy direction. Speculation over a possible Fed rate cut continues to pressure the US Dollar, while political tension in Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s surprise election call might cap Canadian Dollar gains. Also, crude oil price volatility—considering CAD’s high correlation with oil—will be instrumental in determining the pair’s direction. Major areas of focus are future US PMI releases and FOMC speeches, which may influence USD sentiment. Speculation in the market regarding Fed rate cuts and Canada’s surprise election announcement may also impact USD/CAD movement. Also, oil price volatility is still important for the Loonie’s direction. • USD/CAD trades flat below the mid-1.4300s on mixed market signals. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to bear down on the US Dollar. • Dovish Crude Oil prices constrain the Canadian Dollar’s rise. • Political risk increases with Canada’s PM announcing a snap election on April 28. • The market mood remains risk-averse with no definite directional bias. • The market waits for US flash PMI numbers and FOMC member speeches for new indications. • Price volatility in oil will continue to be a primary driver of USD/CAD direction. The USD/CAD pair is stable to start the new week, guided by a combination of economic and political events. Market participants closely monitor the situation unfolding in the US and Canada. On one side, the US Dollar is under pressure as there are growing hopes that the Federal Reserve might have rate cuts in the near term in view of economic slowdown concerns. On the other side, Canada’s political scenario has been given a fresh twist with Prime Minister Mark Carney declaring an unexpected election, raising doubts over future policy and investor sentiment towards the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Simultaneously, sentiment across broader markets is subdued as traders consider global economic indicators and geopolitical tensions. The Canadian Dollar, commonly sensitive to commodity prices, is also responding to oil price movements, which significantly determine its relative strength. In the near term, traders are likely to monitor closely the release of US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, which may provide more insight into the policy direction and its implications for currency movements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD pair is range-bound, with prices staying just below the mid-1.4300s, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. The pair has been able to bounce back from initial Asian session lows around 1.4325 but still trades in the wider range set last Friday. In spite of multiple attempts, the pair has failed to break convincingly above the 1.4400 resistance level, which suggests that buyers are reluctant without a definite bullish catalyst. On the negative side, support at the moment is around the 1.4300 level, and a persistent dip below this may draw in new selling interest. Until a break on either side happens, the pair will remain in this tight range, waiting for new impetus from economic news or political events. FORECAST Should market sentiment turn bullish for the US Dollar, perhaps in response to better-than-anticipated US economic news or more aggressive Federal Reserve rhetoric, USD/CAD may try to challenge the 1.4400 resistance level once again. A clear breakout above it may allow for additional upside, particularly if political uncertainty continues to pressure the Canadian Dollar. Also, if the price of oil continues to slide, it will add pressure to the Loonie, thereby supporting the trend in the USD/CAD to the upside. Conversely, in the event of Fed rate cut hopes gaining traction or if disappointing US data come out in the future, the US Dollar is likely to face fresh selling interest, causing USD/CAD to move lower. A drop below the 1.4300 support area may initiate additional weakness towards the 1.4260 or even 1.4200 levels. In addition, any improvement in Canada’s political scenario or a good bounce in crude oil prices might provide support to the Canadian Dollar, raising the risk of decline for the USD/CAD currency pair.

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USD/CAD Rallies Back Over 1.4300 Ahead of Fed Rate Decision as Dollar Reverses Slightly and Oil Prices Lose Ground

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  • March 19, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair has mounted a rebound from its two-week low of 1.4260, rising back above the 1.4300 mark as market participants look forward to the much-awaited Federal Reserve policy meeting decision. A small recovery in the US Dollar from multi-month lows, together with softer crude oil prices, has given the pair support for the second day in a row. Gains are still capped, however, with investors holding back ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts, as well as closely monitoring Chair Jerome Powell’s rhetoric for guidance on the coming rate-cut direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s rate move and economic forecast, paying specific attention to any hints regarding the timing and rhythm of impending rate cuts. • The direction of the USD after the meeting will be important in deciding on the next move of USD/CAD, particularly if Powell sounds more dovish or hawkish than anticipated. • Being an oil-linked currency, the Canadian Dollar is still vulnerable to the movements in oil prices. Any additional weakness in crude oil may still drag the Loonie. • Rising tensions in the Middle East may have an impact on oil supply projections and risk appetite, which could in turn affect oil prices and safe-haven demand for the USD. With the USD/CAD currency pair trading just above the 1.4300 level, market attention continues to be squarely on the next Federal Reserve policy announcement, which is set to give the US Dollar new guidance. Traders will be keenly listening to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the revised economic forecasts for hints on the central bank’s future rate-cut trajectory. In the meantime, any substantial move in crude oil prices would impact the Canadian Dollar, as it strongly correlates with oil. Further, tensions in the Middle East are also a possible risk factor that can affect market sentiment and commodity prices, thus impacting the near-term USD/CAD course. USD/CAD remains above 1.4300 prior to the Fed policy announcement, helped by a small US Dollar recovery and lower oil prices. Market focus now centers around Jerome Powell’s remarks for insights into upcoming rate cuts, with geopolitical tensions and oil price actions continuing as main driving factors. • USD/CAD recovers above 1.4300 from a two-week low just below 1.4260. • Small US Dollar recovery from multi-month lows helps the pair. • Traders stay on guard in anticipation of the pivotal Federal Reserve policy announcement. • Fed likely to leave rates steady; attention turns to economic projections and Powell’s comments. • Impending rate-cut indications from the Fed may have a profound impact on USD direction. • Weakening crude oil prices deter the Canadian Dollar, facilitating USD/CAD gains. • Middle East geopolitical tensions may affect oil prices and risk mood, which can impact the pair. The USD/CAD currency pair is in the limelight as markets globally await the outcome of the closely watched Federal Reserve policy meeting. As no interest-rate change is anticipated, investors are following keenly the Fed’s revised economic forecast and comments from Chair Jerome Powell. These observations will prove to be pivotal in determining the central bank’s attitude towards upcoming monetary policy, especially in context to future interest rate reductions later this year. The result of this meeting is expected to influence overall market sentiment and direct currency movements in the subsequent sessions. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView While meanwhile, wider economic conditions still influence the USD/CAD forecast. Oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian economy, have been revealing their volatility, providing another source of uncertainty. Furthermore, heightened tensions in the Middle East are closely watched, as they have the potential to affect global energy markets and investor mood. Since there are more than one factor involved, market players are walking on eggshells, waiting for more definitive indications before making firm actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has been able to bounce from the recent support level around 1.4260, showing buying interest at lower levels. The pair recovering above the 1.4300 level shows a possible short-term bullish tilt, although the momentum is moderate. Traders will be monitoring a sustained move above this level to confirm further upside potential. On the negative side, if the pair cannot remain above 1.4300, it will go back to the recent support zone, whereas resistance levels at 1.4350 and 1.4380 may prove to be obstacles for any potential rise. FORECAST In case the Federal Reserve retains a dovish tone and avoids any indication of near-term rate cuts, the US Dollar is likely to move even higher, possibly taking USD/CAD up. A strong push through the 1.4300 level can create space for the pair to challenge the subsequent resistance levels at 1.4350 and 1.4380. Further deterioration in crude oil prices can also fuel upside movement in the pair, as the Canadian Dollar remains highly sensitive to movements in the oil market. An aggressive bullish break can even lead to a run-up to the 1.4400 area in the short term. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a dovish turn or suggests rate cuts earlier than anticipated, the US Dollar can come under fresh pressure, and that would initiate a decline in USD/CAD. A breakdown below the 1.4260 support could speed up selling pressure, taking the pair down to 1.4220 or even lower. Furthermore, any sudden surge in crude oil prices or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions would bolster the Canadian Dollar, leading to further losses for the pair.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls Target 1.4450 as Momentum Builds

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  • February 27, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair maintains its upward momentum, moving above 1.4350 and targeting the important psychological resistance of 1.4450. Technicals such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50 and the pair above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) validate a building short-term trend. A decisive breach above 1.4450 would set the stage for a retest of the 1.4793 level, last touched in March 2003. On the downside, initial support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.4286, and a breach below this would set the stage for a more significant correction towards the two-month low of 1.4151. KEY LOOKOUTS • USD/CAD continues in an uptrend, staying above major EMAs and boosted by RSI above 50, indicating potential extension to 1.4450 resistance. • A strong break above the psychological level of 1.4450 has the potential to drive the pair to 1.4793, last visited in March 2003. • Near-term support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.4286, with a breakdown below potentially prompting a move towards the two-month low of 1.4151. • A failure to maintain gains above 1.4450 may erode bullish pressure, triggering a possible correction to the three-month low of 1.3927. The USD/CAD currency pair remains in firm bullish mode on the back of its standing above dominant moving averages and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. The near-term attention is at the psychological resistance level of 1.4450, with a clean break seen taking the pair up towards the 1.4793 level last recorded in March 2003. On the downside, the nine-day EMA level of 1.4286 acts as the first point of support, followed by the 14-day EMA level of 1.4284. A decline below these levels may undermine the short-term bullish perspective and direct the pair to the two-month low of 1.4151. The traders should be careful of a possible pullback if the pair is unable to hold above 1.4450, as it can create a more serious correction towards the three-month low of 1.3927. USD/CAD continues to stay bullish, trading above important EMAs and bolstered by an RSI reading above 50. A break above 1.4450 would drive the pair towards 1.4793, and support at 1.4286 is important to avoid a further pullback. • USD/CAD continues its winning streak, trading above important EMAs and holding a strong short-term bullish bias. • The psychological level of importance at 1.4450 is the next target, with a break higher potentially paving the way to 1.4793. • The nine-day EMA at 1.4286 is the nearest support, closely followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.4284. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, supporting the bullish outlook and potential for further gains. • A break above 1.4450 may cause a retest of the 1.4793 level, last seen in March 2003. • Failure of the pair to hold above 1.4450 may initiate a corrective decline to the two-month low of 1.4151. • A more pronounced fall may test the three-month low of 1.3927, which is still a major support level for the long-term trend. The USD/CAD currency pair remains to be of much interest as market forces determine its direction. Releases of economic data, interest rate measures, and international trade patterns are key to determining the performance of the currency pair. Economic stability and monetary policy decisions drive the strength of the U.S. dollar and influence its exchange rate with respect to the Canadian dollar. Further, Canada’s commodity-driven economy, relying heavily on energy exports such as oil, watches its currency waver with changes in the trend of the energy markets. This external impact affects USD/CAD’s trajectory and has USD/CAD under keen observation from traders and investors alike. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Political developments and domestic economic reports in both nations contribute further to the movement of USD/CAD. Market mood, investor sentiment, and risk appetite drive changes in demand for the Canadian and U.S. currencies. The bilateral trade relations between the two countries also contribute to the dynamics, with alterations in tariffs, free trade agreements, or cross-border investments affecting exchange rates. Moreover, employment figures, inflation readings, and consumption spending patterns of the U.S. and Canada indicate economic wellness, driving market expectations. Consequently, USD/CAD is still a major pair in the foreign exchange market, showing general economic trends and world financial conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still firm as the pair continues to stay above important support levels, showing continued bullish momentum. The price continues to stay above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming short-term strength. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying above 50 indicates continued buying pressure. The next important level of resistance is at 1.4450, a psychological level, with a breach likely to push the pair to higher levels. On the downside, support currently lies near the nine-day EMA at 1.4286, and a breach below this may signal a change in momentum. Overall, technical indicators reflect an upward bias, but traders should watch key levels for possible trend reversals. FORECAST USD/CAD’s bearish momentum is still intact, and the pair is looking towards the crucial resistance of 1.4450. A sustained crossover above this psychological level can open the doors towards higher levels, and the next big target is 1.4793, a level witnessed as recently as March 2003. The upward trend is bolstered by technicals and solid market sentiment, and the U.S. currency has been firm amid economic stability. If the buying pressure persists, USD/CAD may continue to appreciate as investors continue to be bullish on the pair’s long-term outlook. On the bearish side, any inability to move above 1.4450 may initiate a corrective pullback, taking the pair to near-term support at 1.4286. A clear break below this level may undermine bullish momentum and take USD/CAD to the two-month low of 1.4151. Further downside pressure can develop if bearish sentiment intensifies, with the pair likely testing the three-month low of 1.3927. Market uncertainties, changing risk appetite, and external economic factors may play a role in reversing the situation, making these support levels very important

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Currencies

USD/CAD Reversal: US Dollar Recovery vs Tariff-Fueled Loonie Jitters

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  • February 24, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair recovered around 1.4220 in European trade as the US Dollar regained nearly all of its intraday decline even as dismal US flash PMI data arrived, with market sentiment still subdued amid impending threats of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada. Technical indicators such as a falling triangle pattern and a 20-period EMA indicate a range-bound trend with additional downside risk if important support levels are violated, but a break higher may drive the pair to higher resistance levels. The USD/CAD pair rebounds as the US Dollar recovers from its intraday losses despite disappointing US flash S&P Global PMI data for February. Investor sentiment is becoming cautious against the backdrop of impending fears about possible 25% tariffs for Canadian imports from President Trump, as the Bank of Canada’s Governor threatens of drastic economic ramifications in case tariffs are levied. KEY LOOKOUTS • Move below 1.4151 support, potentially indicating a greater downtrend and driving the pair towards December lows. • US Dollar, since its strength would offset poor US PMI figures and have a strong impact on USD/CAD movements. • Potential tariff news from the US government, since policy changes would again affect investor morale and Loonie stability. • Upside breakout above 1.4246, which would initiate a rally towards resistance levels if market sentiment is supportive. The USD/CAD currency pair has been resilient with a significant rebound to close to 1.4220 as the US Dollar regained intraday losses. Even though poor flash PMI data showed contracting service sector activity in the US, the USD was strong, which helped the Loonie pair. Yet, ongoing uncertainty over prospective 25% tariffs on Canada continues to support a defensive stance for the Canadian Dollar, as President Trump’s review of tariffs further fuels investor anxiety. US Dollar strength will counter weak US PMI figures, and hence the currency recovery will be a key driver for USD/CAD action. Tariff uncertainty is still a major factor, so watch closely for any policy changes by the US administration that may further erode investor confidence and Loonie stability. A fall below 1.4151 may see further selling towards December lows, but good US Dollar resilience holds the pair up even in the face of poor PMI data. Tariff uncertainty is still a major issue, and a breakout above 1.4246 on the upside may release further bullish momentum. • The USD regained its losses rapidly, supporting the pair to recover around 1.4220. • Even after disappointing US flash PMI, the strength of the USD is a major driver. • Speculation of possible 25% tariffs on Canadian imports continues to disturb investor confidence. • The pair is in a descending triangle with a support around 1.4151. • Overlapping of the Loonie price by the 20-period EMA indicates a sideways trend. • The RSI is still in the 40-60 region, showing indecision among market participants. • A bullish move above 1.4246 would potentially see the pair touching resistance areas at 1.4300 and 1.4380, or face further downtrends if it breaks below 1.4151. The US Dollar made a significant comeback in European trading sessions, recovering the majority of its previous losses following miserable US flash S&P Global PMI data. Investors seem to be taking the strength of the US Dollar despite the mixed signals from the economy, showing confidence in the overall strength of the currency. The USD/CAD currency pair has remained strong as the US Dollar recovers from previous losses despite poor US flash PMI figures for February. Investors are looking at the prospects for US monetary policy and the possible effect of an economic slowdown, which has not had a significant impact on the strength of the US Dollar. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, market players are still wary as a result of impending threats from possible tariff measures. With President Trump considering not imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian imports and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem sounding the alarm about dire economic consequences, sentiment on the Canadian dollar is still guarded in this state of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD chart is characterized by a falling triangle formation, with significant support and resistance levels portending future direction. The 20-period EMA overlap signals that there is no strong momentum, while the 14-period RSI, which is always within a neutral range, points to the fact that traders are presently indecisive. Such technical indicators suggest that the market is in consolidation mode, and future price action will be guided by a definitive break from the present balance. FORECAST In case market sentiment turns negative, a breakdown below significant support levels would increase selling pressure, driving the pair towards lower levels seen in earlier sessions. Such a decline may be supported by ongoing economic uncertainties and policy issues, which would lead investors to take a more risk-averse approach that may extend the bearish trend. Conversely, if there is renewed buying interest and momentum picks up, the pair might rally towards higher resistance levels, re-establishing a more bullish trading regime. This would be an indication of enhanced confidence in economic indicators and an adjustment of policy risks, leading to a broader market rebound.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Forecast: Bearish Momentum Grows Pre-Employment of Canadian CPI Inflation Data

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  • February 18, 2025
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USD/CAD is trading close to 1.4205 in early European trading, with a bearish bias pre-employment of Canada’s CPI inflation data publication. The pair is still under pressure below the 100-period EMA, with the RSI indicator continuing to signal bearish momentum. The initial key support level stands at 1.4151, with additional downside potential to 1.4130 and the psychological 1.4100 level. On the positive side, near-term resistance is at 1.4265, with a possible breakout to 1.4310 and 1.4380. Focus remains on Canada’s inflation reading, due to increase 1.8% YoY, which may affect USD/CAD’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS        • January inflation report, due at 1.8% YoY, will be a determining factor affecting USD/CAD’s next direction and market mood. • The initial resistance at 1.4265, then 1.4310 and 1.4380, may decide whether USD/CAD makes a bullish reversal. • Important downside levels at 1.4151, 1.4130, and 1.4100 will play a pivotal role in determining whether bear pressure becomes more intense in the short term. • A stronger U.S. dollar would cap downside action, while risk sentiment and economic data releases will influence near-term USD/CAD price action. USD/CAD is also in the limelight as traders wait for Canada’s CPI inflation data, expected to increase 1.8% YoY in January. With the pair hovering around 1.4205, the technicals favor a bearish bias since it is still below the 100-period EMA and the RSI is hovering around 46.25. The key downside levels to keep an eye on are 1.4151, followed by 1.4130 and the psychological level of 1.4100. On the positive side, a break above 1.4265 can drive the pair towards 1.4310 and 1.4380. The sentiment of the market and the strength of the U.S. dollar will determine the direction of the next move in USD/CAD. The USD/CAD currency pair quotes around 1.4205 with a bearish bias prior to Canada’s CPI inflation, due out at 1.8% YoY. Important support areas are at 1.4151 and 1.4100, whereas resistance at 1.4265 may dictate further upside potential. Market sentiment and the strength of the U.S. dollar will dictate the next direction of the pair. • USD/CAD is still in pressure below the 100-period EMA, with the RSI at 46.25 showing continuous downside momentum. • Inflation is forecasted to increase by 1.8% YoY in January, impacting sentiment and possible price action in USD/CAD. • Support appears at 1.4151, with deeper potential downside toward 1.4130 and the psychological area of 1.4100. • Resistance is at 1.4265, a breakout potentially pushing the pair through to 1.4310 and 1.4380. • The performance of the Greenback, along with risk mood, will play the key role in deciding whether USD/CAD goes on losing further or corrects. • The pair is moving below the 100-period EMA, while the Bollinger Bands also indicate greater near-term selling pressure. • Buyers and sellers would keep a sharp eye on Canadian CPI releases as well as wider market dynamics because volatility could inject steep price actions in USD/CAD. The USD/CAD currency pair is still under bearish pressure, trading below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a fundamental indicator of negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.25 also supports the negative bias, indicating sellers are still in command as long as it remains below the midline. The Bollinger Bands show rising volatility, with the price approaching the lower band, which is a sign of possible further falls. The initial important support level is 1.4151, which a breakdown below may further speed up selling down to 1.4130 and the psychological support of 1.4100. The levels will play a determining factor in ascertaining whether the bearish trend continues. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the other hand, on the resistance, the initial important barrier is at 1.4265, which coincides with the top Bollinger Band. A decisive breakout above this level may drive the pair to 1.4310, which coincides with the 100-period EMA. In case buyers can sustain momentum beyond here, more upside potential is available towards 1.4380, the February 10 high. As long as the price is below key resistance points and the RSI is unable to break above 50, the downside bias continues to prevail. Market participants will be paying close attention to Canadian CPI releases and overall risk sentiment, as these underlying drivers may cause tremendous volatility and determine USD/CAD’s next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still bearish, with the pair below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which confirms bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46.25, which is biased towards sellers as long as it remains below the midline. The initial major support is at 1.4151, a fall below which may open up further losses towards 1.4130 and the psychological level of 1.4100. On the higher side, resistance is encountered at 1.4265, coinciding with the top Bollinger Band, with additional obstacles at 1.4310 and 1.4380. A clear break above these levels may change direction towards a reversal to the upside, but presently, the technical indicators are biased towards a further downtrend. FORECAST USD/CAD has some space for upward correction if important resistance levels are broken. The initial resistance level to monitor is 1.4265, which coincides with the top of the Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could propel the pair to 1.4310, where the 100-period EMA is the next important barrier. If bullish sentiment gains strength, a prolonged rally may aim at 1.4380, the February 10 high. Favorable U.S. economic news or disappointing Canadian CPI inflation data may provide the impetus for a break higher, pushing fresh interest into the U.S. dollar. Moreover, if risk appetite tips in favor of safe-haven assets, USD appreciation may sustain an upside breakout. On the negative side, bearish momentum is still in control as long as the pair is below the 100-period EMA and the RSI is below 50. The initial important support is at 1.4151, the February 14 low, and a break below this level can pick up selling pressure. The next target on the downside is 1.4130, close to the lower edge of

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