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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Below 100-Day EMA Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

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  • June 20, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair continues to feel the heat around the 1.3700 level during early Friday European trade, sticking to a bearish bias as it remains capped below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Technical charts that have a declining RSI below the 50 level reinforce a bearish stance with potential for further declines if the pair breaks below key support at 1.3660. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have the potential to drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar higher, present resistance at 1.3746 and steep barriers above indicate limited short-term upside momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS • Breaking above this level may initiate further upside towards 1.3830 and 1.3945 (100-day EMA). • Persistent weakness below this level may see a fall towards 1.3568 and possibly 1.3430. • RSI continues to be under 50, supporting the bearish bias while price remains below the 100-day EMA. • Rising Middle East tensions and possible US intervention may affect USD strength and affect USD/CAD direction. USD/CAD pair still lingers around the 1.3700 level, under pressure to the downside as it fails to break through the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Technical indicators, such as a bearish 14-day RSI at the lower end of the midline, indicate the bearish momentum is still intact. Important support is at 1.3660, and a breakdown below this level would leave the way open for more losses towards 1.3568 and potentially 1.3430. Resistance is at 1.3746 on the upside, stronger obstacles at 1.3830 and 1.3945. Geopolitical events, most importantly regarding possible US participation in Middle East tensions, can affect safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and shape the direction of the pair. USD/CAD is capped below the 100-day EMA, remaining close to 1.3700 with a bearish technical configuration. A fall below 1.3660 might initiate further declines, while support at 1.3746 caps potential gains. Geopolitical tensions could influence USD demand in the short term. • USD/CAD is trading at levels of 1.3700 in early European trading, still with a bearish tone. • Pair is still below the 100-day EMA, adding to the bear pressure. • RSI below 50 confirms sustained bearish pressure on the daily chart. • First support is at 1.3660, with further support below at 1.3568 and 1.3430. • Resistance at 1.3746 is immediate, followed by 1.3830 and 1.3945. • Middle East geopolitical threats may impact US Dollar safe-haven demand. • Market sentiment is subdued, with technical and fundamentals supporting a bearish bias. The USD/CAD currency pair is gaining attention as the Middle East geopolitical tensions escalate, with speculation regarding potential American involvement fueling global uncertainty. Investors are keenly observing events, particularly in the wake of the White House announcement that President Joe Biden might make a decision within two weeks whether or not to align with Israel in the war. Such geopolitical uncertainty normally creates greater demand for safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar, which could influence the movement of the pair regardless of underlying economic fundamentals. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, market participants continue to keep an eye on wider macroeconomic signals, such as future US economic data reports and any change in the policy direction of the Federal Reserve. Within Canada, domestic growth indicators and the next policy action from the Bank of Canada are of interest. The interplay of central bank positioning, global risk sentiment, and geopolitical events will probably dictate the direction of USD/CAD in the next few days and hence form a highly observed currency pair within the present market scenario. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has a bearish bias as it continues to be topped by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a significant resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below the 50 mark, signaling that bearish momentum is still in play. Immediate support is seen at 1.3660, the low from June 6, and a break below this level could lead the pair toward 1.3568, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band, and eventually to 1.3430. On the positive side, 1.3746 is the initial resistance level, and additional hurdles are at 1.3830 and the 100-day EMA at 1.3945. Until the pair crosses above these resistance levels, technical bias still leans to the bearish side. FORECAST If USD/CAD is able to hold above the immediate resistance at 1.3746, it may trigger a short-term rally to 1.3830, which is the upper edge of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level would likely spur more bullish momentum, potentially challenging the 100-day EMA around 1.3945. This, however, would take strong fundamental support, perhaps from good US economic news or a sudden spurt in safe-haven buying for the US Dollar. On the negative side, a persistent failure to stay above the 1.3660 support may trigger further selling pressure. A bold break below the same level may set the way for 1.3568, while prolonged losses may extend the pair to 1.3430—Sept 2024’s low. The technical setup, complemented by a weak RSI and resistance-plentiful upside, indicates that the path of least resistance is still southward unless a strong driver is present to change sentiment.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Outlook: Loonie Set for Further Downside as Market Awaits Fed Policy and Trade Negotiations

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  • June 17, 2025
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USD/CAD remains pinned around 1.3575, indicating consolidation in anticipation of the much-expected Federal Reserve policy announcement. The market is widely expecting the Fed to leave interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% levels, thereby preventing any unusual market volatility. As for positive news on a prospective US-Canada trade agreement, the Canadian Dollar remains underperforming, with USD/CAD near its eight-month low. Bearish technical signals, such as falling EMAs and weak RSI, suggest possible downside towards the 1.3400 level, unless the pair can pull off a conclusive rebound above 1.3820. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch out for the Fed interest rate statement, with a forecasted hold at 4.25%-4.50%, which can be relevant to USD volatility. • Hope of a trade deal between Trump and Carney can serve to back CAD if talks proceed as scheduled in the next 30 days. • A dip below 1.3540 might initiate further downfall towards 1.3500 and 1.3420, perpetuating the bearish trend. • 14-day RSI is still in bearish range (20-40), and all the major EMAs are in declining modes, indicating continuous selling pressure. USD/CAD currency pair stays bearish, trading at around 1.3575 as investors take a risk-off approach in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement. As much as a rate decision is expected to be held back, any indication of impending policy changes may inject some volatility into the US Dollar. Even as there is a favorable environment for the Canadian Dollar on account of a predicted trade agreement between Canada and the US, the Loonie remains underperforming. Technically, the bearish setup is still intact, and momentum gauges and EMAs suggest lower. A convincing fall below 1.3540 could set the stage for further losses towards 1.3500 and then 1.3420. USD/CAD fluctuates around 1.3575 as markets wait for the Fed rate decision. Even with trade deal euphoria, the Canadian Dollar lags. A fall below 1.3540 could lead to further losses toward 1.3400. • USD/CAD is trading around 1.3575, maintaining Monday’s range. • The Fed should keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%. • Investors are looking for policy cues from the Federal Reserve. • Canadian PM Carney and US President Trump target a trade agreement in 30 days. • Even with trade optimism, CAD trails other major currencies. • Technicals reveal a bearish pattern with all EMAs trending lower. • A decline below 1.3540 may send the pair to 1.3500 and 1.3420 support levels. The USD/CAD currency pair continues to be range-bound with market players looking ahead to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later today. With general expectations of the Fed leaving its rate policy unchanged, investors are more interested in any forward guidance that would give clarity to future rate direction. This cautionary mood has seen the US Dollar firm up against its peers, including the Canadian Dollar, in advance of the mid-week policy declaration. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the geopolitical side, events between Canada and the United States have captured the spotlight, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump’s commitment to seal a trade agreement within 30 days. Such an action would have significant consequences for North American trade patterns and investor sentiment. Even amid this seemingly rosy context for the Canadian economy, market responses have been muted as investors remain in wait for tangible advances on the trade horizon. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD remains bearish as the pair keeps trading below fundamental moving averages, with all short-to-long-term EMAs trending south—reflecting consistent selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be weak, fluctuating between 20 and 40, reflecting that bearish momentum still prevails. A break below Monday’s low of 1.3540 would probably speed the downside movement, possibly pulling the pair towards the next important support levels of 1.3500 and 1.3420. Any rebound, though, above 1.3820 might change the near-term bias to bullish. FORECAST If USD/CAD penetrates the significant support at 1.3540, it might pave the way for more losses. The next strong psychological figure to monitor is 1.3500, with the September 25 low at 1.3420 coming next. Sustained bearish pressure, coupled with diminishing expectation of positive economic surprises in the US, may continue to fuel downward pressure in the near term. Conversely, a convincing bounce through the May 29 high of 1.3820 would confirm a reversal in sentiment and potentially turn the bearish structure of the pair around. This may set the stage for a test of the May 21 high at 1.3920 and ultimately the May 15 high at 1.4000, particularly if US economic conditions firm up or Fed commentary unexpectedly becomes hawkish.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Falls to Eight-Month Lows as Persistent Bearish Pressure Continues: Key Support Points in Spotlight

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  • June 12, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair continued its downward slide, dipping to around 1.3650 on Thursday’s Asian trading session, near its eight-month low of 1.3634. The pair continues to be under constant bearish pressure, moving within a falling channel pattern. Technical indicators, including the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding marginally above 30 and the price below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), still point to weak momentum. A clean break below 1.3634 may set the stage for further declines to 1.3450 and 1.3419. On the other hand, any rally may encounter initial resistance at 1.3695, with firmer hurdles around 1.3720 and 1.3874. KEY LOOKOUTS • The duo is near its eight-month nadir; a breach below may induce further falls towards 1.3450 and 1.3419. • The 14-day RSI is still just above 30, which continues bearish pressure; a decline below this level might indicate an oversold situation and potential bounce. • Near-term resistance is near the nine-day EMA and the top of the falling channel, which may cap any upside attempts. • If upward momentum is regained, the pair can aim at the 50-day EMA at 1.3874 and subsequently the high of two months at 1.4016. USD/CAD pair is still experiencing selling pressure, trading close to 1.3660 and testing major support levels with bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. The duo is still held in a bearish descending channel, and indicators like the 14-day RSI resting just above 30 and price remaining below the nine-day EMA at 1.3695 indicate minimal upside momentum. If bears drive the pair under key 1.3634 support, additional losses toward 1.3450 and 1.3419 may develop. Conversely, any upward correction can find resistance around 1.3695 and 1.3720, with a better recovery possibly aiming for 1.3874 and 1.4016. USD/CAD is trading around 1.3660, nearing its eight-month low in the wake of continuous bearish pressure. Its key support stands at 1.3634, with further decline possible if this support is breached. Its nearest resistance comes at 1.3695, capping any possible recovery. • USD/CAD is trading at 1.3660, near the eight-month low of 1.3634. • The pair is under bear pressure, trading in a falling channel pattern. • The 14-day RSI remains marginally above 30, reflecting bear momentum with minimal upside potential. • A decline below 1.3634 may take the pair to 1.3450 and 1.3419 support levels. • Intraday resistance is at the nine-day EMA of 1.3695, followed by 1.3720. • A break above 1.3720 can clear the way to the 50-day EMA of 1.3874 and May’s high of 1.4016. • Short-term sentiment in the market remains negative unless major resistance levels are taken out. The USD/CAD currency pair remains in the spotlight as wider market forces and economic fundamentals dictate investor attitude. Global risk appetite, commodities prices, and monetary policy expectations of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have been key drivers in recent changes. Other factors include oil prices, as they tend to influence the Canadian Dollar because Canada is a top oil producer, that are currently directing the pair’s overall trajectory. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, investors are also watching closely for upcoming releases of economic data such as inflation rates, employment reports, and central bank statements from both nations. All these help support continued volatility and uncertainty across currency markets as the traders move to adjust their positions in line with changing economic signals and geopolitical events. The interaction between the global safe-haven status of the US Dollar and the commodity-linked dynamics of the Canadian Dollar continue to be a primary propellant for the pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is under pressure in a defined bearish channel on the daily chart. The pair is below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which reflects poor short-term momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 30 level, which means the bearish slope is still in place but is reaching oversold levels. A dramatic drop below the recent low at 1.3634 would precipitate deeper losses, and any rally would encounter initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3695, followed by the channel’s upper edge at 1.3720. FORECAST USD/CAD could drop below the crucial support level of 1.3634, leaving the pair vulnerable to further losses towards 1.3450. Ongoing selling pressure could later even drive the price down to 1.3419, levels last witnessed in February 2024. Weaker US Dollar sentiment, more robust Canadian economic news, or higher oil prices could potentially speed up this falling path. On the positive side, a continued recovery above the nine-day EMA at 1.3695 could mean a short-term reversal of the uptrend. A break above the upper edge of the descending channel at around 1.3720 might set the way for a move to the 50-day EMA at 1.3874. If buying pressure gains further, USD/CAD might try to reapproach the two-month high of 1.4016, which was last witnessed in mid-May.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Reaches Weekly Highs on USD Strength, But Increases Might Be Limited in the Face of Important Economic Releases and FOMC Minutes

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  • May 28, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair has continued to recover for a third straight day, rising to a new weekly high at the 1.3840 level due to slight US Dollar appreciation after robust US economic reports. Yet, still lingering over the US fiscal horizon and increasing hopes of Fed rate reductions in 2025 might cap further gains. On top of this, traders are being cautious before the FOMC meeting minutes and major economic announcements, such as US GDP, PCE statistics, and Canada’s monthly GDP. Though higher crude oil prices and firmer Canadian inflation statistics might underpin the Loonie, a conclusive trend might only be seen with continued follow-through buying. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Traders will be keeping a close eye on the minutes for insight into the Fed’s interest rate outlook, which may determine USD sentiment and near-term price action. •  The coming Prelim Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index releases will be pivotal in influencing expectations for future Fed policy action and shaping USD demand. •  Canada’s monthly GDP and variations in crude oil—Canada’s major export—will be crucial in deciding CAD strength. •  Continuous worries over the US fiscal health can keep the USD under pressure, keeping gains in the USD/CAD pair in check even with positive information. USD/CAD pair trades at weekly highs, market players are closely eyeing a number of crucial factors that can decide its next direction. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes is eagerly awaited, as investors want to know the Fed’s rate-cut path. Along with that, the next US economic data releases—specifically the preliminary Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index—will be crucial in deciding the momentum of the USD. On the Canadian front, more-than-anticipated core inflation and the next monthly print of GDP, along with crude oil price fluctuations, may provide the Loonie with support. Also, ongoing worries regarding the US fiscal horizon could still limit the greenback’s appreciation, contributing to the pair’s short-term ambiguity. Traders are looking to the FOMC meeting minutes and leading US data such as Q1 GDP and PCE for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. On the Canadian front, firmer inflation and coming GDP prints, as well as oil price action, may underpin the Loonie. US fiscal issues may also cap additional USD gain. • USD/CAD is trading around 1.3840, a third consecutive day of rising gains and a new weekly high. • Positive US economic data has propped up the USD, alleviating recession concerns and boosting the DXY. • FOMC meeting minutes are expected for some clarity on the Fed’s rate-cutting outlook in 2025. • US fiscal issues and dovish Fed expectations could cap further gains for the USD. • Prelim US Q1 GDP and PCE Index figures may have a strong bearing on the direction of the USD this week. • Warmer Canadian core inflation has taken away some possibility of a June BoC rate cut, supporting CAD strength. • Crude oil price action and Canadian monthly GDP will be major drivers for the Loonie. The USD/CAD pair is still in the spotlight this week as a number of significant economic events on both sides of the border continue to happen. The US Dollar is finding support from some recent encouraging economic data, which has helped to alleviate some recession fears and lift sentiment in the markets. While investor attention is firmly focused on the upcoming release of FOMC meeting minutes, which should give more definitive direction on future interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, persistent worries about the US fiscal picture are causing volatility and may affect the overall demand for the USD in the near future. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Canada, better-than-anticipated core inflation readings have caused the market expectations for potential interest rate reductions by the Bank of Canada to change. This, along with higher crude oil prices, has supported the Canadian Dollar beneath. In the coming week, the release of Canada’s monthly GDP report will be under keen observation for additional evidence of economic strength. Along with the important US releases of Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index, these are the elements most likely to determine the market mood towards the USD/CAD currency pair for the rest of the week. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has continued its recovery from the recent low around the 1.3685 area, with the pair now sitting near the 1.3840 resistance area. This area represents a significant barrier, and a breakout above it can be a signal of bullish continuation in the short term. Still, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are nearing overbought levels on the daily chart, which means buyers might get tired if the pair is unable to break higher convincingly. On the bearish side, near-term support is around the 1.3780 level, followed by the 1.3725-1.3700 area, which would serve as a cushion if the pair is subject to selling pressure. FORECAST If the bullish trend remains and USD/CAD decisively breaks above the 1.3840 resistance zone, then the pair may target the next levels on the upside at 1.3880 and possibly 1.3915. More robust US economic data and a hawkish interpretation of FOMC meeting minutes will fuel additional support for the USD to drive the pair further up. Moreover, any backtracking in crude oil prices or softer-than-anticipated Canadian GDP figures might soften the Canadian Dollar, providing more space for further upsides. Alternatively, a failure to sustain above the 1.3840 threshold might spark a short-term correction, with near-term support around the 1.3780 region. A more severe pullback can also challenge the 1.3725–1.3700 support level, particularly if US data is disappointing or if the FOMC minutes suggest a more dovish policy. Some strong Canadian economic data or a continuation of the oil price increase can also reinforce the Loonie and push the pair down towards a revisit of the recent low around 1.3685.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Extends Losses with Crude Oil Strength and Dovish Fed Outlook

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  • May 22, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair continues to trade with a bearish trend, extending losses for the fourth day in a row in response to bolstering crude oil prices and reduced prospects for a Bank of Canada rate reduction. The Canadian Dollar is supported by warmer-than-anticipated domestic inflation numbers, whereas the US Dollar continues to suffer due to dovish Federal Reserve hopes, fresh US-China trade tensions, and increasing fiscal worries after a US credit rating downgrade. Technically, a break below the critical 1.3900 support and rejection from the 200-day SMA further increase the bearish outlook, making the pair susceptible to greater losses in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • More robust than expected Canadian core inflation has taken some sting out of the chances of a near-future rate cut by the Bank of Canada, offering underlying support to the Loonie. • Being a commodity-linked currency, the Canadian Dollar is inextricably linked with oil prices. Any persistent rise in crude oil—under geopolitical tensions or supply issues—can further buoy the CAD. • Traders are waiting for forthcoming US macro data, such as flash PMIs, for signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory, with dovish sentiments keeping the USD under pressure. • The inability of the pair to remain above the 1.3900 level and rejection against the 200-day SMA indicate sustained bear pressure, with more falls to come should support at 1.3810 be broken. Traders should closely monitor key drivers influencing the USD/CAD pair, including the impact of elevated Canadian inflation on the Bank of Canada’s rate path, which currently tilts against a near-term rate cut and supports the Loonie. Crude oil prices remain a crucial factor, with recent gains driven by geopolitical uncertainty continuing to bolster the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. In the meantime, the US Dollar remains under pressure from dovish expectations about the Federal Reserve and the issue of US fiscal stability, particularly after being downgraded by Moody’s credit rating. From a technical perspective, the pair’s inability to retake the 1.3900 level and its rejection of the 200-day SMA support a bearish direction, with traders on high alert for a possible break below the 1.3810 support area. USD/CAD is under pressure as increasing oil prices and higher Canadian inflation support the Loonie. Dovish Fed expectations and US fiscal worries weigh on the US Dollar, while a decline below 1.3810 could indicate further declines for the pair. •  USD/CAD is trading with a bearish bias, extending its losses for the fourth day running. •  Reversal in crude oil prices supports the Canadian Dollar owing to its commodity-linked nature. •  Higher-than-anticipated Canadian inflation lowers the prospect of a June cut by the Bank of Canada. •  US Dollar declines in line with dovish Federal Reserve hopes and increasing fiscal worries. •  US sovereign credit rating downgrade by Moody’s adds to pressure on the USD. •  Technical breakdown under 1.3900 and rejection from the 200-day SMA indicate sustained downside risk. •  Focus turns to US macro data due later in the day and global flash PMIs for new trading signals. The USD/CAD currency pair is still saddled by wider macroeconomic considerations affecting the US Dollar as well as the Canadian Dollar. On the Canadian front, recent inflation numbers were higher than anticipated, lowering the potential for an instant interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada. This has bolstered faith in the Loonie, particularly when coupled with the recovery of crude oil prices, which are the backbone of Canada’s economy. Stronger oil prices, underpinned by geopolitical tensions like uncertainty over US-Iran nuclear talks, still provide support to the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the American side, the Dollar is under constant pressure because of escalating fiscal worries and weakening expectations regarding upcoming interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Moody’s sovereign downgrade of the US credit rating and anxieties regarding swelling deficits have triggered caution among investors. Furthermore, tensions between the US and China have reemerged, also placing the USD under increased risk aversion, adding to the pressure on the currency. Market participants are now intently following future economic indicators, including US macro data and world flash PMIs, for clues that may affect the policy direction and investor appetite in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still under pressure after it was unable to stay above the key 1.3900 level and was rejected close to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating bearish momentum. The recent breakdown of the pair below a short-term consolidation area indicates a change in sentiment in the direction of sellers. If the support area of 1.3810–1.3800 is broken convincingly, it may pave the way for a further decline towards the next significant support levels. Momentum indicators also have a negative bias, supporting the possibility of further downside in the short term. FORECAST USD/CAD is able to remain above the 1.3800 support area and experiences fresh buying interest, a bounce towards the 1.3900 level may be in the pipeline. A move above this area would invite new bullish interest, with the potential to see the pair return to the 1.3950–1.3980 zone. To experience an ongoing upside drive, the pair would have to regain and stay above the 200-day SMA, currently serving as a major resistance. Positive surprises in future US economic data or a recovery in US Treasury yields would also be able to sustain a USD recovery, causing the pair to strengthen in the near term. Conversely, a strong break below the 1.3810–1.3800 support will likely lead to a deeper correction, exposing the next downside targets at 1.3750 and maybe 1.3700. Ongoing rigidity in crude oil prices and sustained cooling of US economic data would most likely continue to keep the Canadian Dollar underpinned, exerting pressure on the pair. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to stick to its dovish stance and US fiscal worries remain, the bearish scenario could deepen, keeping USD/CAD susceptible to more losses during upcoming sessions.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Clings to Muted Levels Below 1.3950 as Complacent US Inflation and Trade Sentiment Command Market Mood

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  • May 14, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair continues to hold low below the 1.3950 level, pressured by a softer US Dollar in the wake of lower-than-anticipated US CPI releases that has rekindled speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts towards the end of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to about 100.15, as geopolitical trade tensions introduce another degree of uncertainty, with Canada nudging to eliminate Trump-era tariffs before any talks with the US. On the other hand, declining oil prices, fueled by increasing US crude inventories, are exerting gentle pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Traders now wait for critical US economic data and statements from Fed Chair Powell for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Thursday’s release of April’s PPI, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims will be keenly observed for evidence of inflationary trends and consumer demand, shaping USD sentiment. • Market players will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech closely for any clues on the upcoming interest rate path, especially with growing expectations of possible rate cuts. • Continued attempts by Canada to phase out Trump-era tariffs have the potential to influence future trade negotiations and influence CAD strength based on progress and US reactions. • As a large oil producer, Canada’s currency is still exposed to crude oil price moves; recent inventory numbers indicating growing US stockpiles potentially continue to put pressure on WTI prices and negatively affect the CAD. Markets are presently centered on some major events that may dictate the USD/CAD direction in the short term. High-impact US releases, such as April’s Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims, will provide new insights into the condition of the US economy and inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week is also under the limelight, with investors looking for clarity on the central bank’s policy stance as expectations of rate cuts grow. Geopolitically, Canada’s efforts to scrap Trump-era tariffs bring an element of uncertainty, which could impact future trade flows and the Canadian Dollar. Crude oil prices are also a key driver, with increasing US inventories bearing down on WTI and Markets are looking to important US economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments for direction on future rate action in the face of growing rate cut expectations. Trade tensions between the US and Canada, as well as declining oil prices, put additional pressure on the Canadian Dollar and USD/CAD forecast. •  USD/CAD is unchanged around 1.3950, trading below the 200-day EMA with ongoing pressure on the US Dollar. • Downside US CPI numbers have boosted the chances of rate cuts from the Fed, weakening the USD and taking the DXY down to near 100.15. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today is eagerly awaited for any policy cues on the future interest rate trajectory. • Thursday’s US releases – PPI, Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims – may cause short-term USD/CAD volatility. • Canada’s efforts to end Trump-era tariffs have revived trade worries, further complicating the CAD. • WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $62.93, burdened by an unexpected build in US crude stocks, weakening the oil-correlated CAD. • Cautious sentiment in the market, with economic indicators and geopolitical tensions set to decide the next direction of the pair. USD/CAD currency pair is now driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical forces that are directing investor sentiment. Recent United States inflation numbers have rekindled debates surrounding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, with markets speculating that interest rate cuts may be back on the agenda this year. This change in expectations is affecting confidence in the US Dollar, making the tone for currency markets to be cautious. In the meantime, focus is also shifting to future US economic data releases and a planned speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, both of which are likely to provide more insight into the direction of Fed policy. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitically, trade relations between the United States and Canada are again in the spotlight. Canada has said that the priority in any renewed negotiations with the US would be to have tariffs imposed under the Trump administration repealed. The latest comes at a time when world trade patterns remain fragile, and any improvement or reversal in the talks could weigh on the larger Canadian economic picture. In addition, price volatility in oil continues to exert a backburner influence on the Canadian Dollar, as the nation is such a major exporter of crude. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is having difficulty getting traction as it remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an important indicator which is commonly regarded as a long-term trend indicator. The fact that the pair has failed to breach above this level implies sustained bearish pressure, and buyers have hesitated in the 1.3950 resistance area. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also point towards a neutral to mildly bearish bias, reflecting limited upside power. Unless the pair closes decisively above the 200-day EMA, the ongoing range-bound action is likely to continue, with levels around 1.3880 gaining prominence in case of fresh selling. FORECAST If future US economic statistics surprise to the upside—like higher-than-anticipated retail sales or producer price inflation—it may reactivate demand for the US Dollar, providing support to USD/CAD. A dovish-sounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also propel expectations of postponed rate cuts, perhaps sending the pair above the 1.3950 resistance. In this situation, a prolonged breach above the 200-day EMA may initiate further upside towards the psychological 1.4000 level and above, particularly if crude oil prices continue to be soft, softening the Canadian Dollar. On the other hand, in case of disappointing US data or if Powell hints at a dovish policy approach, interest rate cut hopes might gain strength, increasing pressure on the US Dollar once again. This may lead to a fall in USD/CAD, particularly if oil prices come back and buoy the Canadian Dollar. A fall below significant support levels near 1.3880 may cause the pair

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USD/CAD Declines Below 1.3850 as Dollar Retreats Ahead of Highly Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CAD pair fell below the 1.3850 level in Friday’s Asian session, trading around 1.3830, as the U.S. Dollar receded ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Although the greenback had gained some strength recently, investor caution re-emerged with doubts about how current tariff measures are affecting job growth. Greater positive sentiment in the market, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s positive comments on trade agreements with major Asian allies provided some relief to the USD. In contrast, softer-than-anticipated economic reports from both the U.S. and Canada—such as increasing U.S. unemployment claims and a third consecutive drop in Canada’s Manufacturing PMI—added to the conservative tone. The Bank of Canada’s recent meeting minutes also indicated a contained policy stance, dampening hopes of near-term rate reductions in spite of continued economic weakness. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are all eyes on Friday’s NFP reports for indications of how tariffs and trade tensions are impacting the U.S. labor market, and possibly impacting the direction of the USD. • Any breakthrough or delays in U.S. trade talks with China, India, Japan, and South Korea may determine market mood and USD strength. • While the BoC has kept rates steady in the face of sticky inflation and a robust labor market, future economic releases will be pivotal in determining future rate expectations. • Further softness in Canada’s manufacturing sector and other macro datapoints could bear down on the CAD, particularly if economic slowdown accelerates. USD/CAD pair are the following U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which might offer vital information on the effects of tariffs on employment and shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market participants are also watching events on the trade front, as any improvement in U.S. negotiations with China, India, Japan, and South Korea might enhance risk appetite and underpin the U.S. Dollar. On the Canadian side, ongoing weakness in manufacturing—dramatized by April’s steep decline in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI—may continue to stress the Canadian Dollar. Further, the Bank of Canada’s conservative policy tone, as embodied in its most recent meeting minutes, indicates that rate decisions will continue to be highly data-sensitive, so coming economic releases will be important for the CAD outlook. Traders are keeping a close eye on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for indications of the impact of tariffs on the labor market, which may alter USD sentiment. Poor Canadian manufacturing figures and the Bank of Canada’s conservative approach contribute to downside pressure on the CAD. Trade updates also continue to be a primary market driver. •  USD/CAD dipped below 1.3850, trading at around 1.3830 during Friday’s Asian session with a lull in the recent rally of the U.S. Dollar. • Investor attention is on the forthcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which can provide insights on whether tariffs are impacting employment trends. • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 241,000, exceeding estimates and introducing caution to the economic outlook. • The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, still in contraction but better than predicted, providing mixed signals. •  Canada’s Manufacturing PMI dipped to 45.3 in April, lowest since May 2020, indicating ongoing sectoral weakness. • Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75%, due to sticky core inflation and a firming labor market, but left the door open for future rate cuts. • Optimistic market sentiment trailed following U.S. President Trump’s comments on the possibility of trade agreements with significant Asian economies, providing partial support to the USD. Investor sentiment in the USD/CAD cross is being influenced by a combination of economic data and geopolitical events. With the focus now shifting to the impending U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, markets are looking forward to gaining some insight into how existing trade policies, most notably tariffs, are potentially impacting employment and general economic activity. The latest comments from U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at possible trade deals with nations such as India, Japan, and South Korea have also alleviated some of the concerns related to trade. Moreover, news of China being willing to resume talks with the U.S. has also added to a slightly positive market sentiment. USD/CAD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Canada, economic data continues to reflect strain, especially in the manufacturing segment. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined for the third consecutive month in April to its weakest since the beginning of the pandemic. In spite of these conditions, the policy rate was left unchanged by the Bank of Canada due to entrenched core inflation as well as an unemployment market which proved surprisingly resistent. With both economies charting mixed data and shifting trade dynamics, market players are prudent, awaiting future economic releases and policy announcements for firmer guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has retreated after it failed to hold above the resistance 1.3850 level, hinting at a possible short-term consolidation. The duo is now trading around the 1.3830 level, with short-term support at 1.3800, a level that has served as a psychological floor in recent sessions. A breach below this support would pave the way towards 1.3750. On the higher side, a move above 1.3850 would be required to be sustained to restore bullish momentum, with the next resistance likely at 1.3900. Momentum tools like the RSI are turning lower, hinting at a possible continuation of range-bound behavior unless there is a robust catalyst. FORECAST Unless strong catalysts occur, like better-than-expected U.S. economic statistics on the next major releases, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls, this optimism in USD will fade and can potentially favor further downward moves to CAD. Strengthening trade sentiment, most likely should breakthroughs emerge on trade deals with China or other significant trading partners, might support positive momentum as well. Technically, a breakout above the 1.3850 resistance level could set the stage for the 1.3900–1.3950 range, particularly if risk appetite sours and investors flock to the safety of the USD. Conversely, however, if U.S. jobs data sends the wrong message or hints at slowing economic growth owing to tariff pressures, the USD could face fresh selling pressure. Dollar weakness would drag USD/CAD down,

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USD/CAD Falls Below 1.4100 Pre-US CPI Data Due to Weak Dollar and Pressure in Oil Market

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  • April 10, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair remains trading lower, falling below the 1.4100 level as the US Dollar continues to be under pressure prior to the eagerly awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Anticipation of a modest dip in both headline and core inflation has cooled USD demand, with markets rethinking the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut. The Canadian Dollar also has its own headwinds as weakening oil prices—brought about by rising US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about demand—bear down on the commodity-sensitive currency. Despite weakness in the USD, these countervailing forces are expected to cap the pair’s downside. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A softer-than-anticipated inflation figure may spur rumors of future Fed rate reductions, which could be a further drag on the US Dollar. •  As a significant Canadian export, falling crude prices due to worldwide demand worries and US-China trade tensions might cap CAD advances. •  Reaction to last week’s FOMC Meeting Minutes will continue to be pivotal, particularly about balancing inflation taming and economic slowdown. •  Any intensification of trade tensions might trigger risk-off sentiment, impacting oil prices and general currency market flows. The USD/CAD pair is down pressure below the 1.4100 level as investors wait for the US CPI inflation reading, which has the potential to influence expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. A lower inflation print would likely raise speculation on rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar further. But the Canadian Dollar is also coming under headwinds with declining oil prices amidst renewed concerns about demand triggered by rising US-China trade tensions. These counterforces—USD weakness against CAD vulnerability on sliding crude—are poised to create a tug-of-war in the pair’s direction, sustaining volatility in the near term. USD/CAD trades below 1.4100 as investors await key US CPI data, with expectations of a slight cooldown in inflation. While the US Dollar remains subdued, falling oil prices amid US-China trade tensions weigh on the Canadian Dollar, limiting further downside. • USD/CAD trades below 1.4100 for the second consecutive day amid US Dollar weakness. • March US CPI data are due, with inflation projected to slow to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. • Core CPI is predicted at 3%, down slightly from the last 3.1% reading. • FOMC minutes reveal concern over increasing inflation and decelerating growth, implying dovish Fed policy. • Market pricing indicates a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut next meeting, representing uncertainty. • WTI crude oil is close to $60.20, weighed down by demand concerns driven by US-China trade tensions. • Canadian Dollar is still susceptible to declining oil prices, topping gains against weakening USD. The USD/CAD currency pair is in the limelight as the market waits for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. This report is viewed closely because it gives information about inflation patterns within the United States, which greatly influence Federal Reserve actions. Mild cooling of inflation relative to the last month will be expected and may shape investors’ sentiments of future monetary policy actions. Concurrently, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes indicate that policymakers are closely walking a tightrope between inflation fears and risks of a decelerating economic growth. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In addition, external pressures like global trade tensions are fueling market uncertainty. Fresh tensions between the US and China have renewed concerns about global demand, especially in the energy markets. Since oil is a crucial component of the Canadian economy, these events are being closely watched. The movement of crude oil prices and their reaction to overall economic signals will remain a key consideration for the Canadian Dollar. With both the US and Canadian economies having unique issues, market players are watchful in anticipation of any major economic releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD continues to exhibit signs of weakness as it continues below the psychological level of 1.4100. The currency pair has dipped below short-term support levels, reflecting a bearish near-term bias. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate poor upside potential since they are resting close to neutral levels, and moving averages are beginning to tilt downwards, enhancing selling pressure. Should the pair be unable to hold its ground at or above 1.4100, however, it would begin to weaken to the next level of support around 1.4050, while a solid break higher at 1.4100 could set up the retesting of 1.4150 resistance. FORECAST In the event the US CPI for tomorrow surprises higher on the back of more solid-than-expected inflation, then the US Dollar will be pushed upwards by reinforcing the Fed’s hold-back from further interest rate cutting. A resurgence of USD strength could assist USD/CAD in rising back above the 1.4100 level, with possible levels of resistance at 1.4150 and 1.4200. Also, any indications of stability or rebound in oil prices would assist the Canadian Dollar, but if oil demand prospects are brightened by softening global tensions, the pair’s higher limit could be curtailed. Conversely, a weaker inflation print might revive hopes of Fed rate cuts, pulling the US Dollar down and further lowering USD/CAD. A fall below the current support at 1.4050 might result in a more pronounced pullback towards 1.4000 or even 1.3960. If oil prices remain low based on ongoing demand issues or lingering US-China trade tensions, the Canadian Dollar might depreciate even more, halting the descent of USD/CAD even if there is stress on the US Dollar.

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USD/CAD Remains Flat Below 1.4350 On Fed Speculation and Canadian Politics

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  • March 24, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair begins the week cautiously trading just below the mid-1.4300s as conflicting market signals keep traders and investors nervous. While hopes of an eventual Fed rate cut dampen the US Dollar, lower Crude Oil prices and political instability in Canada—after Prime Minister Mark Carney demanded a snap election—cap the Canadian Dollar’s appreciation. In spite of intraday declines, the pair is still within last week’s range, indicating a lack of direction. With US PMI data and FOMC member speeches coming up, along with volatile oil prices, traders are waiting for new signals to decide the next direction in USD/CAD. KEY LOOKOUTS • Flash PMI prints and comments from prominent Federal Reserve members may steer short-term market sentiment and USD direction. • Short bets on an impending Fed rate-cut cycle are still a dominant force for USD movements and will keep influencing the trend in USD/CAD. • The surprise call for a snap election by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney injects uncertainty and could cap any sharp rise in the Canadian Dollar. • As a commodity-based currency, the CAD is still vulnerable to price movements in crude oil, so oil market fundamentals are an essential factor to monitor. Several factors affecting the USD/CAD in the short term need to be monitored closely by traders. Market interest will continue to be on US economic releases, specifically the flash PMI prints and Fed official speeches, which might provide new insights into the central bank’s monetary policy direction. Speculation over a possible Fed rate cut continues to pressure the US Dollar, while political tension in Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s surprise election call might cap Canadian Dollar gains. Also, crude oil price volatility—considering CAD’s high correlation with oil—will be instrumental in determining the pair’s direction. Major areas of focus are future US PMI releases and FOMC speeches, which may influence USD sentiment. Speculation in the market regarding Fed rate cuts and Canada’s surprise election announcement may also impact USD/CAD movement. Also, oil price volatility is still important for the Loonie’s direction. • USD/CAD trades flat below the mid-1.4300s on mixed market signals. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to bear down on the US Dollar. • Dovish Crude Oil prices constrain the Canadian Dollar’s rise. • Political risk increases with Canada’s PM announcing a snap election on April 28. • The market mood remains risk-averse with no definite directional bias. • The market waits for US flash PMI numbers and FOMC member speeches for new indications. • Price volatility in oil will continue to be a primary driver of USD/CAD direction. The USD/CAD pair is stable to start the new week, guided by a combination of economic and political events. Market participants closely monitor the situation unfolding in the US and Canada. On one side, the US Dollar is under pressure as there are growing hopes that the Federal Reserve might have rate cuts in the near term in view of economic slowdown concerns. On the other side, Canada’s political scenario has been given a fresh twist with Prime Minister Mark Carney declaring an unexpected election, raising doubts over future policy and investor sentiment towards the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Simultaneously, sentiment across broader markets is subdued as traders consider global economic indicators and geopolitical tensions. The Canadian Dollar, commonly sensitive to commodity prices, is also responding to oil price movements, which significantly determine its relative strength. In the near term, traders are likely to monitor closely the release of US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, which may provide more insight into the policy direction and its implications for currency movements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD pair is range-bound, with prices staying just below the mid-1.4300s, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. The pair has been able to bounce back from initial Asian session lows around 1.4325 but still trades in the wider range set last Friday. In spite of multiple attempts, the pair has failed to break convincingly above the 1.4400 resistance level, which suggests that buyers are reluctant without a definite bullish catalyst. On the negative side, support at the moment is around the 1.4300 level, and a persistent dip below this may draw in new selling interest. Until a break on either side happens, the pair will remain in this tight range, waiting for new impetus from economic news or political events. FORECAST Should market sentiment turn bullish for the US Dollar, perhaps in response to better-than-anticipated US economic news or more aggressive Federal Reserve rhetoric, USD/CAD may try to challenge the 1.4400 resistance level once again. A clear breakout above it may allow for additional upside, particularly if political uncertainty continues to pressure the Canadian Dollar. Also, if the price of oil continues to slide, it will add pressure to the Loonie, thereby supporting the trend in the USD/CAD to the upside. Conversely, in the event of Fed rate cut hopes gaining traction or if disappointing US data come out in the future, the US Dollar is likely to face fresh selling interest, causing USD/CAD to move lower. A drop below the 1.4300 support area may initiate additional weakness towards the 1.4260 or even 1.4200 levels. In addition, any improvement in Canada’s political scenario or a good bounce in crude oil prices might provide support to the Canadian Dollar, raising the risk of decline for the USD/CAD currency pair.

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USD/CAD Rallies Back Over 1.4300 Ahead of Fed Rate Decision as Dollar Reverses Slightly and Oil Prices Lose Ground

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  • March 19, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair has mounted a rebound from its two-week low of 1.4260, rising back above the 1.4300 mark as market participants look forward to the much-awaited Federal Reserve policy meeting decision. A small recovery in the US Dollar from multi-month lows, together with softer crude oil prices, has given the pair support for the second day in a row. Gains are still capped, however, with investors holding back ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts, as well as closely monitoring Chair Jerome Powell’s rhetoric for guidance on the coming rate-cut direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s rate move and economic forecast, paying specific attention to any hints regarding the timing and rhythm of impending rate cuts. • The direction of the USD after the meeting will be important in deciding on the next move of USD/CAD, particularly if Powell sounds more dovish or hawkish than anticipated. • Being an oil-linked currency, the Canadian Dollar is still vulnerable to the movements in oil prices. Any additional weakness in crude oil may still drag the Loonie. • Rising tensions in the Middle East may have an impact on oil supply projections and risk appetite, which could in turn affect oil prices and safe-haven demand for the USD. With the USD/CAD currency pair trading just above the 1.4300 level, market attention continues to be squarely on the next Federal Reserve policy announcement, which is set to give the US Dollar new guidance. Traders will be keenly listening to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the revised economic forecasts for hints on the central bank’s future rate-cut trajectory. In the meantime, any substantial move in crude oil prices would impact the Canadian Dollar, as it strongly correlates with oil. Further, tensions in the Middle East are also a possible risk factor that can affect market sentiment and commodity prices, thus impacting the near-term USD/CAD course. USD/CAD remains above 1.4300 prior to the Fed policy announcement, helped by a small US Dollar recovery and lower oil prices. Market focus now centers around Jerome Powell’s remarks for insights into upcoming rate cuts, with geopolitical tensions and oil price actions continuing as main driving factors. • USD/CAD recovers above 1.4300 from a two-week low just below 1.4260. • Small US Dollar recovery from multi-month lows helps the pair. • Traders stay on guard in anticipation of the pivotal Federal Reserve policy announcement. • Fed likely to leave rates steady; attention turns to economic projections and Powell’s comments. • Impending rate-cut indications from the Fed may have a profound impact on USD direction. • Weakening crude oil prices deter the Canadian Dollar, facilitating USD/CAD gains. • Middle East geopolitical tensions may affect oil prices and risk mood, which can impact the pair. The USD/CAD currency pair is in the limelight as markets globally await the outcome of the closely watched Federal Reserve policy meeting. As no interest-rate change is anticipated, investors are following keenly the Fed’s revised economic forecast and comments from Chair Jerome Powell. These observations will prove to be pivotal in determining the central bank’s attitude towards upcoming monetary policy, especially in context to future interest rate reductions later this year. The result of this meeting is expected to influence overall market sentiment and direct currency movements in the subsequent sessions. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView While meanwhile, wider economic conditions still influence the USD/CAD forecast. Oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian economy, have been revealing their volatility, providing another source of uncertainty. Furthermore, heightened tensions in the Middle East are closely watched, as they have the potential to affect global energy markets and investor mood. Since there are more than one factor involved, market players are walking on eggshells, waiting for more definitive indications before making firm actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has been able to bounce from the recent support level around 1.4260, showing buying interest at lower levels. The pair recovering above the 1.4300 level shows a possible short-term bullish tilt, although the momentum is moderate. Traders will be monitoring a sustained move above this level to confirm further upside potential. On the negative side, if the pair cannot remain above 1.4300, it will go back to the recent support zone, whereas resistance levels at 1.4350 and 1.4380 may prove to be obstacles for any potential rise. FORECAST In case the Federal Reserve retains a dovish tone and avoids any indication of near-term rate cuts, the US Dollar is likely to move even higher, possibly taking USD/CAD up. A strong push through the 1.4300 level can create space for the pair to challenge the subsequent resistance levels at 1.4350 and 1.4380. Further deterioration in crude oil prices can also fuel upside movement in the pair, as the Canadian Dollar remains highly sensitive to movements in the oil market. An aggressive bullish break can even lead to a run-up to the 1.4400 area in the short term. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a dovish turn or suggests rate cuts earlier than anticipated, the US Dollar can come under fresh pressure, and that would initiate a decline in USD/CAD. A breakdown below the 1.4260 support could speed up selling pressure, taking the pair down to 1.4220 or even lower. Furthermore, any sudden surge in crude oil prices or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions would bolster the Canadian Dollar, leading to further losses for the pair.

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