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USD/CHF Dips Toward Two-Month Lows Ahead of US Jobs Benchmark Revision

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  • September 9, 2025
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The US Dollar is weakening against the Swiss Franc for the third consecutive day, with the USD/CHF pair approaching two-month lows near 0.7910. Market attention is focused on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) benchmark revision, which is expected to reveal significant job losses over the past year, potentially up to 800,000. Fears about a worsening jobs market are driving hopes of an imminent Federal Reserve big rate cut. The Swiss National Bank, however, is being prudent, with President Martin Schlegel set to remain in neutral on negative interest rates, signaling possible dangers for savers and pension funds. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market watches for US jobs data revision, likely to reflect deep employment losses, which may initiate Fed monetary easing. • A hint at labor market weakness may lead to expectations of a jumbo rate reduction in the next Fed meeting. • USD/CHF is moving towards its crucial support levels at 0.7910 and 0.7872, the lowest since 2011. • SNB President Martin Schlegel’s soon-to-be-delivered speech may affect market mood, especially as it relates to negative interest rate policies. The USD/CHF currency pair is under selling pressure, moving downwards towards two-month lows as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision in the coming days, which is likely to reflect hefty job losses in the last one year. Poor employment numbers in the US may further increase hopes for a large Federal Reserve rate cut, putting more selling pressure on the Greenback. Technical levels are also under scrutiny, with the currency approaching crucial support of 0.7910 and 0.7872, which is its weakest level since 2011. The Swiss National Bank is meanwhile likely to play it safe, with President Martin Schlegel set to temper expectations for negative interest rates because of possible dangers to savers and pension funds. USD/CHF creeps closer to two-month lows ahead of the US NFP benchmark revision, which is due to indicate substantial job losses. Soft US jobs data would drive expectations for a Fed rate cut, while the SNB warns against negative interest rates. • USD/CHF approaches two-month lows at 0.7910 with a softening US Dollar. • The pair has declined for three consecutive days, near major support levels. • Focus is on the next US NFP benchmark revision next week, likely to reflect sharp job losses. • A weakening US labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to think of a jumbo rate cut. • Intraday lows at 0.7920 take the pair to within a whisker of the 23 July low at 0.7910. • The main support is at 0.7872, levels not touched since 2011. • SNB President Martin Schlegel is likely to renew warnings against negative interest rates, highlighting threats to savers and pension funds. The US Dollar remains under pressure against the Swiss Franc as investors focus on the soon-to-be-revised US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark. The revised employment data for the last 12 months are likely to reflect substantial job losses, underscoring a weakening US labor market. Fears of declining employment data are increasing expectations of the Federal Reserve incorporating strong monetary easing in its future meetings to stimulate economic growth. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, the Swiss National Bank is being careful, and President Martin Schlegel is likely to stress the dangers of driving interest rates below zero. His focus will be on the security of savers and pension funds, hinting the SNB is not eager to pursue a more forceful easing strategy. This care with a weakening US Dollar is influencing market mood as buyers wait for crucial economic news from both sides. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is moving toward key support levels, with the pair probing intraday lows around 0.7920 and closely watching over the 23 July low at 0.7910. A break below the latter might set the way for the next significant support at 0.7872, the lowest since 2011. Momentum indicators confirm bearish sentiment is gathering pace, while near-term resistance continues to be around 0.7955–0.7970, offering potential barriers to any retracement higher. Traders are set to watch these levels very intently for breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair may extend its decline if the US NFP benchmark revision validates a steep fall in employment, supporting views of an aggressive Fed rate reduction. Under this circumstance, the pair can test crucial support at 0.7910 and, if breached, can slide towards 0.7872, levels last seen in 2011. Sustained weakness in the US Dollar could provide support to selling pressure in the near term. On the other hand, any upbeat surprise in the US jobs data or hints of moderation in Fed easing can ignite a brief respite. Under such a scenario, USD/CHF can try to regain the levels around 0.7955–0.7970 resistance zones. However, considering the current market sentiment, upside actions might remain restricted unless accompanied by better-than-expected economic data or fresh risk appetite.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Remains Above 0.7900 Due to Fed Uncertainty and Dampening Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 24, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair is holding above the 0.7900 level, sandwiched by offsetting market forces. The weaker US Dollar, fueled by doubts over the path of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and fears regarding its autonomy, remains a headwind for the pair. At the same time, weakening demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc, while renewed optimism in global trade and improving risk appetite, assists in curbing further losses. As investors wait to hear important economic data and central bank announcements, the pair is stuck in a range close to a multi-week low, indicative of risk-averse market tone. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market’s interest continues to focus on the timing and speed of prospective rate cuts and pressure on the Federal Reserve’s autonomy. • Geopolitical tensions ease and trade optimism lower demand for the Swiss Franc, driving USD/CHF movement. • Flash PMIs, US Weekly Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales data are likely to fuel short-run volatility in the pair. • The European Central Bank policy statement can influence overall market sentiment and, through that, impact USD/CHF dynamics indirectly. The USD/CHF currency pair is directionless around the 0.7920 level, as market participants balance shorts against opposing forces in the market. The US Dollar remains under pressure as there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s next step and growing concern over political intervention in monetary policy. In contrast, global trade optimism and a favorable risk environment are easing demand for the Swiss Franc, which has historically been considered a safe-haven currency. This tug-of-war has left the pair range-bound, with investors waiting for new catalysts from future economic data and central bank announcements to define the next clear directional path. USD/CHF trades at a narrow range above 0.7900 as opposing forces keep the pair weighed down. Weak US Dollar and declining safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc cancel each other out. Traders wait for major economic data for new directional signals. • USD/CHF consolidates higher around 0.7900, close to a three-week low. • US Dollar weakens on uncertainty regarding Fed’s rate cut trajectory and political interference issues. • Safe-haven demand for CHF dissolves in the face of growing global trade optimism and risk-on sentiment. • Trump’s public rebuke of Fed Chair Powell and buzz surrounding a new Fed nominee join the pressure on USD. • Favorable trade updates with Japan and the EU underpin market risk appetite. • Market participants look to subsequent economic indicators, such as flash PMIs, US jobless claims, and property sales. • Later today’s ECB policy decision might have an effect on sentiment and market volatility worldwide. The USD/CHF currency pair is right now moving through a challenging environment influenced by both economic and political trends. On the one hand, the US Dollar is under pressure by increasing doubt regarding the Federal Reserve’s direction for interest rates. Speculation regarding possible political meddling in the Fed’s autonomy has merely reinforced market prudence. President Trump’s frequent disparagement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and speculation regarding a probable leadership shake-up have created anxiety among investors, inhibiting any robust bounce-back by the greenback. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, a tide of trade optimism is shaping market sentiment. Buoyant hints from continuing trade talks, such as an agreement with Japan and advances in negotiations with the European Union, have helped raise investor optimism. The optimism has deflated demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, providing some support to the USD/CHF pair. As there are upcoming releases of economic data and announcements from the central banks, traders remain cautious, waiting for more definitive signals to inform their next decisions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in a tight consolidation close to the 0.7920 level, slightly above the critical support of 0.7900. The pair stays below its short-term moving averages, suggesting a bearish bias, whereas momentum indicators such as RSI are close to neutral levels, showing indecision in the marketplace. A persistent break below 0.7900 would open up the next support at 0.7860, while any attempt at a rebound would have to overcome 0.7960 to stimulate fresh buying interest and change the short-term outlook to the upside. FORECAST Unless sentiment improves further and future US economic reports surprise to the upside, the USD/CHF currency pair may experience a mild rebound. Encouraging news around the US economy or खबर regarding the policy direction by the Federal Reserve could encourage the US Dollar to gain strength. In that scenario, a breakout above the 0.7960 resistance level could initiate a journey towards the 0.8000 psychological level, with additional bullish pressure potentially aiming for 0.8040 in the near term. Conversely, if uncertainty about the Fed leadership picks up or US economic releases disappoint, the USD could continue on the back foot. This might keep pushing USD/CHF below that crucial 0.7900 support level. A strong breach of this level could result in additional losses down to 0.7860, with prolonged weakness potentially setting the stage for a fall to the 0.7820 region, particularly if risk appetite remains upbeat and safe-haven demand into the CHF rises.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Fails Below 0.7945 as Markets Wait for Critical US NFP Release and Swiss Inflation Surprises

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  • July 3, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair is still capped below the 0.7945 level as markets wait for the much-awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Ongoing modest gains notwithstanding, the US Dollar continues to trade close to 14-year lows after a dismal ADP employment report, which strengthened speculations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprisingly went positive in June, mollifying deflation worries and providing some relief to the Swiss Franc. With the US economy forecast to create 110,000 jobs in June and unemployment expected to tick higher, today’s NFP report is likely to be instrumental in determining short-term USD direction and likely volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • A softer-than-anticipated jobs reading would raise Fed rate cut bets, further weakening the USD. • A return to positive inflation in Switzerland will provide support to the CHF by cutting deflation risk. • A forecasted rise to 4.3% US unemployment could depress USD sentiment if it is confirmed. • Strong 3.9% annual wage growth may provide some support to the USD if other job data disappoints. USD/CHF currency pair is under sell pressure below the 0.7945 resistance mark as investors look for direction from the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Though inching higher, the US Dollar is finding it difficult to bounce back from recent multi-year lows, under pressure from weak labor market readings and increasing hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc has gained some ground following positive inflation in Switzerland during June, which helped alleviate deflation risks. Market participants are looking carefully at the NFP numbers, which are predicted to reflect a slowdown in employment growth and a slight increase in unemployment rates, something that could have a strong bearing on short-term USD/CHF trends. USD/CHF remains below 0.7945 while markets wait for the US NFP release for new direction. Swiss inflation returns to positive rates to support the CHF, while poor US labor data restricts Dollar upside. Bulls are wary of rising Fed rate cut hopes and volatility from NFP. • USD/CHF stays capped below 0.7945 in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. • US Dollar is at multi-year lows, weighed down by dismal ADP jobs data. • Swiss Consumer Price Index climbed 0.1% YoY in June, reducing fears of deflation and bolstering the Franc. • 110,000 new US jobs are projected in June, lower than 139,000 in May. • US unemployment rate predicted to increase slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%. • Wages to stay steady at a 3.9% rate over the year. • NFP result may trigger a high degree of volatility, which will impact the expectations of Fed rate cuts and the USD sentiment. The USD/CHF currency pair is focusing investor attention before the US Nonfarm Payrolls release, as market sentiment continues to be bearish. The US Dollar has displayed modest strength in recent trading sessions, losing steam due to poor employment figures and growing rumors regarding Federal Reserve rate reductions. As the ADP report came in lower than expected, there are increasing concerns that the US labor market is not as resilient as thought, making today’s NFP release a pivotal event for influencing near-term expectations for monetary policy. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Swiss economy provided a gentle shock in that inflation finally went positive in June when the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1% year-on-year. This change helps temper previous deflation worries and provides some underlying basis for the Swiss Franc. Since both economies are showing disparate trends in data—US job markets weakening and Swiss inflation leveling out—investors are waiting anxiously for future numbers to gauge possible changes in economic trajectory and currency strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is contained below the major resistance level of 0.7945, showing ongoing selling pressure close to recent highs. The pair keeps failing to support any significant recovery, with the overall trend still weighted on the downside as long as it holds below this level. A continued breakout above 0.7945 would potentially allow room for additional gains, but a failure to do so might leave the pair susceptible to fresh bearish momentum. Support levels to monitor are in the vicinity of the 0.7870–0.7850 range, which may find buyers if reached. FORECAST If the release of the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes in higher-than-expected—registering better job additions, declining unemployment, or better wage increases—the US Dollar may catch a bid, driving USD/CHF upwards. A move above the 0.7945 resistance level would be expected to break out the bull, perhaps setting the stage for the 0.8000 psychological level. Better labor market statistics would also dampen expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, providing additional support for the Dollar in the short term. Conversely, if the NFP report establishes the weakness of the labor market, with diminishing job creation and growing unemployment, USD/CHF can face fresh selling pressure. A break below the 0.7870 support area would exacerbate losses further, provided it is accompanied by rising confidence in future Fed rate reductions. In this case, the pair may slide towards new multi-year lows, adding to the bearishness surrounding the US Dollar.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Falls Below 0.8250 Amid Trade Uncertainty, Safe-Haven Demand on the Back of Key US PCE Data

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  • May 30, 2025
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USD/CHF pair continued to fall below the level of 0.8250, weakening to near 0.8230 in early European session on Friday, as it was motivated by chronic trade-related uncertainties and safe-haven flows for the Swiss Franc. These developments, ranging from a temporary tariff truce against the US and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, still bear down on the US Dollar. On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank should be holding fire on its monetary policy, with an upcoming rate decision under strict market scrutiny. Traders now turn their focus to the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and other key economic data due later in the day, which could provide fresh direction for the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market eyes the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures data for signs of inflation trends and potential impact on the USD. • Policymakers’ remarks and SNB’s expected rate cut to 0% on June 19 will drive CHF strength. • Uncertainties regarding US tariffs and the temporary reprieve by the federal court cause volatility and underpin safe-haven flows. • Rising Middle Eastern tensions and Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to support demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. Traders are concentrated on a number of determinantal factors driving the USD/CHF outlook. The US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge, is expected later today and could significantly influence the US Dollar’s near-term direction. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank’s upcoming policy meeting on June 19, where a rate cut to 0% is widely anticipated, continues to underpin the Swiss Franc’s appeal. Recurring uncertainty over trade, such as the recent federal court temporary halt on US tariffs and the potential introduction of new tariff instruments, continues to contribute to market volatility and safe-haven demand. Moreover, recurrent geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict are further supporting the Swiss Franc as investors gravitate towards stability against emerging global threats. Market focus is on the US April PCE release, which may influence the path of the USD. The anticipated rate cut from the Swiss National Bank and persistent trade tensions continue to favor the safe-haven Swiss Franc. Geopolitical tensions also contribute to the CHF’s allure in the environment of global risk aversion. •  USD/CHF has fallen below 0.8250, down to approximately 0.8230 during early European trading. •  Ongoing trade-related uncertainty is stimulating demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc. •  A federal appeals court suspended temporarily a broad ruling on US tariffs, introducing uncertainty into trade policies. •  The US administration has weighed tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days but no final action has been taken. •  Middle East geopolitical tensions and the war between Russia and Ukraine continue to underpin safe-haven flows to CHF. •  The Swiss National Bank is due to lower its benchmark rate to 0% on June 19 and effectively terminate a cycle of positive monetary policy. •  Dealers wait for US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and other major economic releases for new market guidance. The Swiss Franc has picked up momentum in recent times as global uncertainties keep unsettling the markets. Persistent trade-related issues and hesitations to finalize US tariff announcements have raised investor caution. Further, geopolitical tensions in hotspots such as the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are leading most to look for safe havens, which favors currencies such as the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the near future, there is focus on significant economic releases in the United States, such as the soon-to-be-released report on personal consumption expenditures, which serves as an indicator of inflation. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank is gearing up for a policy session during which there will be a shift in interest rates. These events, along with the uncertain global atmosphere, are bound to shape the performance of the Swiss Franc and US Dollar in the short run. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF currency pair is indicating bearish momentum since it fell below the 0.8250 level of support, now testing at the 0.8230 zone. The downtrend is underpinned by heightened selling pressure and no strong bull reversals in previous sessions. Critical moving averages are converging around current prices, which may serve as dynamic resistance if the pair tries to bounce back. Traders will be looking for a steady close below 0.8230 to validate further weakness, while any rebound back above 0.8250 could indicate short-term range bound or potential correction. FORECAST If the next US economic data, specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, reveals stronger-than-anticipated inflation or consumer spending, the US Dollar may gain fresh vigor. This would result in a short-term USD/CHF pair rebound, sending it back above significant resistance points such as 0.8250. Any indication of eased sentiments in the geo-political sphere or clearer signals from the Swiss National Bank on keeping rates unchanged could also underpin a revival in the pair. Conversely, persistent trade uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and weak US economic reports could continue to weigh on the US Dollar, subjecting the USD/CHF to further pressure. A confirmed break and close below the 0.8230 mark could pave the way for further losses, potentially extending to lower support levels. The safe-haven appeal of the Swiss Franc and anticipation of an SNB rate cut could sustain downward pressure in the pair in the short term.

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