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USD/CHF Remains Steady Around 0.8850 as Dollar Recovers and Swiss Franc Drops on Better Risk Mood

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  • March 24, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair remains steady around the 0.8850 level, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar on the back of increasing Treasury yields and a dovish Federal Reserve policy. In spite of ongoing fears of a slowdown in the US economy, the greenback is showing resilience in anticipation of the important S&P Global PMI release. At the same time, the Swiss Franc is under pressure downwards with improving global risk appetite and recent policy relaxation by the Swiss National Bank, which cut its key interest rate to 0.25%. Geopolitical events and changing trade policies also affect market forces, keeping investors’ eyes on the horizon for forthcoming economic indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders closely observe the initial US PMI figures for March, which would provide new information on the health of the US economy and have an impact on the direction of the USD. • Increasing yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds are driving the Dollar’s rebound — increased movements in yields will dictate short-term USD/CHF momentum. • Since the SNB rate cut to 0.25%, markets are closely looking at signs or signals regarding future direction of monetary policy and inflation in Switzerland. • Relief on easing geopolitical tensions and changes to US trade policy are lowering demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc — ongoing change in risk appetite could lead to further CHF weakness. The release of the US S&P Global PMI data for March later today will be key in determining the health of the US economy and influencing market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. On top of this, increasing US Treasury yields remain supportive of the US Dollar, with any further movement set to affect the pair. Conversely, the recent 0.25% rate cut by the Swiss National Bank has put pressure on the Swiss Franc, with markets anticipating any policy guidance. In the meanwhile, a better global risk environment and deviously softening geopolitical tensions are suppressing demand for defensive currencies such as the CHF, possibly setting the stage for further USD/CHF gains. Traders look to the US S&P Global PMI, which may give new direction to USD/CHF. Higher US Treasury yields continue to underpin the Dollar, while the Swiss Franc is pressured after the SNB rate cut and better global risk appetite. • USD/CHF is trading around 0.8850, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. • US Dollar strengthens as market mood improves in spite of fears of an impending economic slowdown. • US S&P Global PMI for March is eagerly awaited and could shape further USD action. • Fed continues to have a hawkish stance, with Chair Powell reiterating strong labor markets and ongoing inflation threats. • Swiss Franc loses ground as risk appetite increases, diminishing demand for traditional safe-haven currencies. • Swiss National Bank lowered rates to 0.25%, a new low since September 2022, citing low inflation. • Geopolitical tensions reduce, and changing US trade policies further dampen CHF strength. The USD/CHF currency pair remains influenced by overall economic and geopolitical trends. The US Dollar remains robust as market optimism increases based on encouraging Federal Reserve signals and growing optimism over the US economy. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a solid labor market and consistent movement toward inflation goals, which has bolstered investor confidence. Meanwhile, the next US economic data, especially the S&P Global PMI, will provide additional information on economic conditions and influence market expectations. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the Swiss Franc is under pressure as a result of better global risk appetite and recent policy moves by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB interest rate cut indicates its attempt to boost domestic economic activity in the face of low inflation. Also, softening geopolitical tensions and changing trade strategies are decreasing the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Franc. As the world economic outlook improves, the demand for currencies such as the USD can be expected to increase further, influencing the trend of USD/CHF in the near future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF remains bullish-biased as the pair consolidates above important support levels, reflecting consistent buying interest. The current upward momentum indicates that buyers are still in charge, with the pair holding firm around the 0.8850 region. If the price is able to hold above this support, then it could potentially set the stage for further bullish movement in the near future. Traders would need to look out for levels of resistance coming up ahead as well as observe any indication of reversal or consolidation that would change short-term sentiment in the markets. FORECAST  USD/CHF may witness additional gains, particularly if future US economic releases like the PMI reports are stronger than anticipated. Higher US Treasury yields and persistent Federal Reserve hawkishness might also continue to buoy the US Dollar in the near future. Increased investor optimism and lower Swiss Franc safe-haven demand might also contribute to the upward pressure, moving the pair towards higher resistance levels in the near future. On the other hand, if any disappointing economic data from the US or rising fears of any slowdown are indicated, the Dollar can be pushed down and force a pullback in USD/CHF. Moreover, in case the overall risk sentiment falters in the face of some unforeseen geopolitical events, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc can increase. A more robust CHF, in conjunction with uncertainty in the markets or a dovish change in Fed expectations, might result in a short-term correction or downward pressure on the pair.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Remains Stable Around 0.8800 as Traders Look Towards Fed and SNB Rate Moves Under Geopolitical Uncertainty

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  • March 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair holds stable at around the 0.8810 mark in early European trading on Tuesday amid geopolitical uncertainty, as traders keep an eye out for pivotal monetary policy actions by the US Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank (SNB) later this week. While the US Dollar draws modest support from better-than-anticipated retail sales and a marginal increase in the Dollar Index (DXY), increasing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven flows into the Swiss Franc, possibly capping the pair’s upside potential. Market players overwhelmingly anticipate the Fed to leave rates stationary, while the SNB is expected to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points, adding more interest in USD/CHF’s near-term direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with an eye on revised economic projections that could offer clues on the timing of future rate cuts. • The Swiss National Bank is expected to lower its key policy rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, with expectations of leaving it unchanged until at least 2026. • Escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically Israel’s military buildup, could increase safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, exerting downside pressure on USD/CHF. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is backed by a recovery in US retail sales, but any further move will wait for Fed cues and subsequent macroeconomic data. The USD/CHF cross is trading steadily around the 0.8810 level as traders await key central bank announcements from the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) later this week. Although the US Dollar is mildly supported by a recovery in retail sales and a firmer Dollar Index (DXY), the upside for USD/CHF is capped by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are increasing safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Markets anticipate the Fed to leave interest rates on hold while releasing new economic forecasts that may influence future rate expectations. In the meantime, the SNB is expected to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points, a move that could impact the pair’s short-term movement. USD/CHF remains flat around 0.8810 as traders wait for critical interest rate announcements from the Fed and SNB this week. Although the US Dollar finds some support in retail sales figures, increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East enhance safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. • USD/CHF is flat around 0.8810 in early European trading on Tuesday. • Investors expect important interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve (Wednesday) and the Swiss National Bank (Thursday). • The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances to 103.55 on the back of a recovery in US retail sales figures. • Markets are expecting the Fed to remain unchanged, with possible rate reductions likely from June. • The SNB is expected to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, according to economist expectations. • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel’s heightened military activity, are driving demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc. • Safe-haven flows and uncertainty in global markets can limit the near-term upside potential for the USD/CHF pair. The USD/CHF exchange rate is holding firm as global investors turn their attention to two key central bank announcements this week — the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Investors are keenly monitoring the results of the Fed meeting, which is expected to leave interest rates untouched. The economic forecasts of the central bank will also be significant, as they might provide some clues towards the US economy outlook and possible rate cuts in the later part of this year. Meanwhile, recent US retail sales data registered a modest rebound, providing some support to the overall sentiment of the market. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, the spotlight is also on the SNB, which is expected to reduce its key policy rate. The policy action may herald a change in the Swiss economic sentiment and will have an important influence on forming market expectations in the future. Further, growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have seen a rise in demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc. Words from world leaders and rising tensions are still holding markets in reserve, creating yet another level of sophistication for this week’s central bank-driven news. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is ranging narrowly around the 0.8810 mark, reflecting indecision on the part of traders prior to important central bank announcements. The pair is close to its short-term moving averages, which reflects a lack of strong momentum in either direction. A continued break above the near resistance at 0.8840 would set the stage for more upside towards the 0.8880–0.8900 area. On the other hand, support on the first hit is at 0.8780, and it has more robust support at the 0.8740 level. The technical indicators RSI and MACD are also neutral, supporting the period of consolidation until a positive directional break. FORECAST If the US Federal Reserve leans more towards hawkishness during its next policy meeting or communicates a postponement of interest rate reductions, the US Dollar could further appreciate. A strong economy underpinned by recent indications, including the recovery in retail sales, may also help bolster positive sentiment toward the Greenback. Under such circumstances, USD/CHF may experience upwards direction, provided that the Swiss National Bank follows through with a rate cut and further increases the interest rate spread between the US and Switzerland. Alternatively, escalating Middle Eastern tensions may continue to fuel safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, exerting pressure on the USD/CHF pair. In addition, if the SNB adopts less dovish positioning than anticipated or suggests maintaining rates unchanged for a longer duration than expected, this may make the Swiss Franc stronger. Any news of slowing economies or dovish forecasts by the Fed will also bear on the US Dollar and add to the potential short-term downside risk of USD/CHF.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Dives Towards 0.8800 Due to Tariff Tensions and Safe-Haven Swiss Franc Demand

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  • March 11, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fell close to the 0.8800 mark in Tuesday’s early European session, weighed down by increasing fears of a global trade war and increasing safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Market mood shifted risk-averse due to concerns of a US economic slowdown fueled by tariff-related uncertainties, which dented the US Dollar. Investors are also looking at the US CPI inflation data due later this week, which may provide hints on the Federal Reserve’s next policy action. With rate cut expectations mounting and stock market volatility increasing, the Swiss Franc remains a strong safe-haven currency. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors are looking to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which may influence inflation expectations and guide the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate actions. • Escalating global trade tensions have increased demand for the Swiss Franc, which is putting downward pressure on USD/CHF and emphasizing risk-aversion sentiment in the market. • Markets are already factoring in 75 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first cut expected in full by June. • Continued uncertainty about US trade policy under the Trump regime continues to put pressure on the Dollar and sustain safe-haven flows into the CHF. The USD/CHF currency pair is under pressure around the 0.8800 level as rising global trade tensions and safe-haven demand keep the market sentiment. Fears of a tariff-led slowdown in the US economy have dented the US Dollar, while the Swiss Franc enjoys its usual safe-haven status. Markets are closely observing the upcoming US CPI inflation report, which may give key insights about the Federal Reserve’s next policy action, particularly as markets expect several rate cuts in the current year. In the environment of increasing risk aversion and policy uncertainty, the Swiss Franc should remain strong against the Greenback in the near future. USD/CHF hovers near 0.8800 as trade tensions fuel safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US CPI data, which could influence Fed rate expectations and further impact the Dollar’s direction. • USD/CHF weakens near 0.8800 amid rising global trade tensions and risk-off sentiment. • Safe-haven demand boosts the Swiss Franc (CHF) as investors seek stability amid economic uncertainty. • Fears of a tariff-induced US economic slowdown bear down on the US Dollar. • Cautious sentiment prevails in markets due to ongoing policy uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy. • Investors watch for the US CPI inflation reading, which is seen offering new guidance on inflation and Fed policy. • Bets on Fed rate cuts rise, with markets pricing 75 basis points of this year’s cuts. • Volatile equity markets put pressure on the USD, adding to CHF’s strength in a risk-averse climate. The USD/CHF cross has been under fresh pressure, falling to the 0.8800 level as trade tensions rise worldwide and investors turn to safe-haven assets. Fears of a tariff-led slowdown in the US economy have set off risk aversion in the markets, with investors turning to historically safer currencies such as the Swiss Franc. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration has further dampened investor sentiment, causing weakness in the US Dollar. As geopolitical risks rise, market participants are becoming increasingly cautious, preferring to move capital into assets perceived as more stable. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In addition to trade-related concerns, all eyes are now on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which could significantly influence economic sentiment. A gentle inflation reading could contribute to current concerns regarding the health of the US economy and fuel expectations of a policy change by the Federal Reserve. In the meantime, safe-haven flows remain in favor of the Swiss Franc in the face of wider market uncertainty. As investors consider these economic indicators and global events, the currency market remains on edge for any new news on inflation data or trade-related headlines. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is witnessing stiff selling pressure around the 0.8800 handle, which has served as an important support base. A breach of this handle consistently might unleash additional bear momentum down towards subsequent levels of support. To the upside, recovery bids might experience sellers at about the 0.8850–0.8880 mark where the same could resume their return. The general trend is still bearish as long as the pair remains below major resistance levels, which means that sellers are in charge of the market momentum at the moment. FORECAST Unless there is a bearish breakdown in USD/CHF below 0.8800 support level, a rebound over the next few days appears possible. Any recovery could target the immediate zone of resistance close to 0.8850–0.8880. A decisive rise above this will instigate the further upside action, which has the potential to target the psychologically important 0.8900 mark. Some favorable US economic data, notably better-than-expected inflation releases, or improved risk sentiment are some of the factors that will support a reversal of the Dollar and push the pair higher short term. On the flip side, if USD/CHF breaks and holds below 0.8800, it may set the stage for more weakness towards the next support points at 0.8750 and 0.8700. Ongoing safe-haven buying of the Swiss Franc, along with escalating market concerns about US trade policy and economic slowing, may keep the pair in pressure. Moreover, dovish cues from the Federal Reserve or softer-than-anticipated US data would also add to the bearish pressure on the US Dollar, hastening the decline in USD/CHF.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Price Outlook: Fails to Hold Ground Above 0.9000 Due to Dollar Weakness and SNB Policy Rumors

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  • February 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fails to hold ground above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar grapples with weakness in holding its recovery. Although the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to keeping interest rates unchanged, the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, fueled by weak inflation figures, increases the likelihood of negative interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near the 107.00 level, capping the upside for USD/CHF. The technical indicators indicate declining bullish momentum, with the 14-week RSI dropping from the high bullish zone. A clean break above 0.9244 will open the way for a further rise, while a fall below 0.9000 might initiate a deeper slide towards significant support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive fall below this level may cause further weakness, testing the crucial support levels at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates between 4.25%-4.50% favors the US Dollar but caps its upside potential. • Weak CPI data feeds speculation of possible negative interest rates, weakening the Swiss Franc and influencing USD/CHF’s direction. • A move above the October 2023 high may leave the way open towards the significant resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The USD/CHF currency pair is at a crossroads with the inability of the currency to hold on to levels above the psychological mark of 0.9000. The steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve defends the US Dollar, but a decline in the momentum in the Dollar Index (DXY) keeps gains on a leash. While this, coupled with the dovish tone from the Swiss National Bank, fuel rumors of negative interest rates that might further soften the Swiss Franc, the pair is technically due a strong breakout above 0.9244 to continue its rally towards 0.9300 and beyond. A fall below 0.9000 may see it slide further to significant support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. USD/CHF has difficulty staying above 0.9000 as the US Dollar is met with resistance and the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank causes the Franc to weaken. Further gains may be triggered by a breakout above 0.9244, and a fall below 0.9000 can cause a deeper correction. • The pair cannot hold gains above this psychological level as the US Dollar runs out of steam. • Keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by the Federal Reserve favors the Dollar but caps upside. • Soft inflation numbers add to speculation that the SNB could start negative interest rates, which would weaken the Swiss Franc. • The DXY is unable to hold above 107.00 levels, which affect the short-term price action of the USD/CHF pair. • A breakout above this level may signal more advancements to 0.9300 and 0.9342 levels. • A fall below 0.9000 may initiate further weakness, challenging support at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The 14-week RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that bearish momentum in USD/CHF is waning. The USD/CHF currency pair is struggling to hold above the important psychological level of 0.9000, as the US Dollar cannot hold its advance. Though the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its policy of maintaining interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still unstable near 107.00, capping the rally for USD/CHF. The market sentiment has also been affected by fear of future trade policies under former US President Donald Trump, and thus there is uncertainty in currency movements. At the same time, on the Swiss side, also fueling rumor has been soft inflation data that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might drive interest rates into negative numbers in order to avoid prolonged deflation, which could weaken the Swiss Franc further in the short term. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/CHF currency pair cannot maintain above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar is confronted with resistance in the face of a volatile DXY and stable Federal Reserve policy. In contrast, poor Swiss inflation figures have increased speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may drive interest rates into negative territory, further weakening the Swiss Franc. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in the process of consolidating, with major resistance at 0.9244 serving as a critical breakout level for additional gains up to 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.8947 is rising, reflecting long-term bullish inclination. Yet, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the bullish area of 60.00-80.00 into the neutral area of 40.00-60.00, reflecting the loss of upside momentum. If the pair is unable to hold at 0.9000, it may force a downside motion towards major support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. A strong break above 0.9244 or below 0.9000 will set the next major trend for USD/CHF. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair has the potential to move up if it can break above the major resistance level of 0.9244. A clean breakout above this level may initiate a rally towards the subsequent resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still remains in an upward slope, which is an indication of a long-term bull trend. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a stable interest rate policy while US economic fundamentals continue to remain robust, the US Dollar can again strengthen, driving USD/CHF upward. Any indication of additional monetary tightening or hawkish remarks from the Fed can serve as a trigger for a sustained bullish trend. On the bearish side, a breakdown below the psychological support of 0.9000 can indicate a more severe correction in the pair. A break below this point can leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further losses, with important support points at 0.8958 and 0.8900. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped out of its bullish zone, signaling declining momentum, which will put further pressure on the pair downwards. Further, if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not undertake aggressive rate reductions and the Swiss Franc rises due to risk-off sentiment across the globe, USD/CHF can experience selling pressure. Any surprise US monetary policy developments or

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