USD/CHF Dips Toward Two-Month Lows Ahead of US Jobs Benchmark Revision
The US Dollar is weakening against the Swiss Franc for the third consecutive day, with the USD/CHF pair approaching two-month lows near 0.7910. Market attention is focused on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) benchmark revision, which is expected to reveal significant job losses over the past year, potentially up to 800,000. Fears about a worsening jobs market are driving hopes of an imminent Federal Reserve big rate cut. The Swiss National Bank, however, is being prudent, with President Martin Schlegel set to remain in neutral on negative interest rates, signaling possible dangers for savers and pension funds. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market watches for US jobs data revision, likely to reflect deep employment losses, which may initiate Fed monetary easing. • A hint at labor market weakness may lead to expectations of a jumbo rate reduction in the next Fed meeting. • USD/CHF is moving towards its crucial support levels at 0.7910 and 0.7872, the lowest since 2011. • SNB President Martin Schlegel’s soon-to-be-delivered speech may affect market mood, especially as it relates to negative interest rate policies. The USD/CHF currency pair is under selling pressure, moving downwards towards two-month lows as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision in the coming days, which is likely to reflect hefty job losses in the last one year. Poor employment numbers in the US may further increase hopes for a large Federal Reserve rate cut, putting more selling pressure on the Greenback. Technical levels are also under scrutiny, with the currency approaching crucial support of 0.7910 and 0.7872, which is its weakest level since 2011. The Swiss National Bank is meanwhile likely to play it safe, with President Martin Schlegel set to temper expectations for negative interest rates because of possible dangers to savers and pension funds. USD/CHF creeps closer to two-month lows ahead of the US NFP benchmark revision, which is due to indicate substantial job losses. Soft US jobs data would drive expectations for a Fed rate cut, while the SNB warns against negative interest rates. • USD/CHF approaches two-month lows at 0.7910 with a softening US Dollar. • The pair has declined for three consecutive days, near major support levels. • Focus is on the next US NFP benchmark revision next week, likely to reflect sharp job losses. • A weakening US labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to think of a jumbo rate cut. • Intraday lows at 0.7920 take the pair to within a whisker of the 23 July low at 0.7910. • The main support is at 0.7872, levels not touched since 2011. • SNB President Martin Schlegel is likely to renew warnings against negative interest rates, highlighting threats to savers and pension funds. The US Dollar remains under pressure against the Swiss Franc as investors focus on the soon-to-be-revised US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark. The revised employment data for the last 12 months are likely to reflect substantial job losses, underscoring a weakening US labor market. Fears of declining employment data are increasing expectations of the Federal Reserve incorporating strong monetary easing in its future meetings to stimulate economic growth. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, the Swiss National Bank is being careful, and President Martin Schlegel is likely to stress the dangers of driving interest rates below zero. His focus will be on the security of savers and pension funds, hinting the SNB is not eager to pursue a more forceful easing strategy. This care with a weakening US Dollar is influencing market mood as buyers wait for crucial economic news from both sides. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is moving toward key support levels, with the pair probing intraday lows around 0.7920 and closely watching over the 23 July low at 0.7910. A break below the latter might set the way for the next significant support at 0.7872, the lowest since 2011. Momentum indicators confirm bearish sentiment is gathering pace, while near-term resistance continues to be around 0.7955–0.7970, offering potential barriers to any retracement higher. Traders are set to watch these levels very intently for breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair may extend its decline if the US NFP benchmark revision validates a steep fall in employment, supporting views of an aggressive Fed rate reduction. Under this circumstance, the pair can test crucial support at 0.7910 and, if breached, can slide towards 0.7872, levels last seen in 2011. Sustained weakness in the US Dollar could provide support to selling pressure in the near term. On the other hand, any upbeat surprise in the US jobs data or hints of moderation in Fed easing can ignite a brief respite. Under such a scenario, USD/CHF can try to regain the levels around 0.7955–0.7970 resistance zones. However, considering the current market sentiment, upside actions might remain restricted unless accompanied by better-than-expected economic data or fresh risk appetite.
