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USD/CHF Falls to 0.8950 as Bearish Bias Dominates, Targeting 0.8900 Support

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  • February 24, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair continues to go lower, trading around 0.8960 in Asian trading and sustaining losses for the third straight session. The technical indicators are indicating a persistent bearish bias, with the pair trading below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs and the RSI holding below the 50 mark, supporting further weakening. Market sentiment is pointing towards a move towards the psychological support level of 0.8900, and a break below this level may open the way for a further fall, possibly to the two-month low of 0.8736. On the other hand, a bounce above the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 may indicate a short-term bounce, opening the way for an advance towards the nine-month high of around 0.9201. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair remains under bearish pressure, trading below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which reinforces a continued downtrend and potential further depreciation. • An RSI persistently below 50 underscores the bearish trend, signaling oversold conditions that may prompt an upward correction after further downside extension. • A break below the key support at 0.8900 would trigger further declines, with possible targets being the two-month low of 0.8736 if the selling pressure accelerates. • On the other hand, a break above the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 could be a sign of short-term bounce and lay the groundwork for moving higher towards the nine-month high of 0.9201. USD/CHF is still under strong bearish pressure, trading below the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, which supports a strong downtrend and further weakening. The 14-day RSI always stays below 50, reflecting oversold levels that could trigger a corrective bounce after more price falls. If the pair breaks below the key psychological support of 0.8900, it may speed up a deeper fall towards the two-month low of 0.8736. In contrast, a breakdown below the nine-day EMA at 0.9009 can initiate short-term recovery with a potential stage set for the testing of the nine-month peak around 0.9201. USD/CHF trades below crucial moving averages with the 14-day RSI below 50, indicating bearish sentiment and continued depreciation. Breaking below 0.8900 may send the pair towards the two-month trough at 0.8736, while advancing above 0.9009 may initiate a short-term correction. • Trading close to 0.8960 during Asian trading. • Sustained losses over three consecutive sessions. • Trades below both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, showing bearish momentum. • The 14-day RSI is still below 50, supporting the bearish trend. • Psychological support at 0.8900, a break potentially triggering more declines. • A fall below 0.8900 might have the pair targeting the two-month low at 0.8736. • On the positive side, the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 is serving as the key resistance, with rebound potentially stretching to the nine-month high around 0.9201. USD/CHF continues to be mainly bearish since the pair still continues to display vulnerability in the market. The pair is supported mainly by the sustained selling pressure that has held the pair below critical levels of support. Although the duo has seen its third straight losing day, there is a need to watch for possible changes in market sentiment that may affect its direction in subsequent sessions. Lacking major reversals, USD/CHF may continue being susceptible to more downgrades in light of its prolonged bearish momentum. But traders need to monitor general economic trends or geopolitical events that may influence market trends and investor sentiment. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Most market players are observing the pair with interest, given the general economic uncertainties and global financial trends that may be affecting investor sentiment. In the future, analysts are keeping an eye out for how changes in global economic policies and market risk appetite may affect the USD/CHF dynamic. While some believe the situation will stabilize as market conditions change, others foresee that ongoing caution may cause further adjustments, and thus, keeping an eye on key economic events is crucial. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF shows a strong bearish trend, with the pair persistently trading below its nine-day and 14-day exponential moving averages. The 14-day RSI remaining below the 50 level further indicates the bearish momentum, implying that the market is now in an oversold position. Levels of importance are closely watched, with psychological support at 0.8900 potentially acting as a key hurdle, and potential support around the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 providing a potential turning point should the buyers enter. FORECAST Should market sentiment change and the general public regain confidence in buying the pair, the USD/CHF may break beyond near-term resistance levels, which can trigger a reversal move that would likely drive the pair toward higher ground. Increased buying interest and positive macroeconomic news may help sustain this recovery, and it is possible that a change in momentum is on the cards. If the pair reverses the current bearish momentum and can break above the nine-day EMA, increased buying interest may be seen. A recovery in the 14-day RSI, rising from oversold levels, can aid in forming a short-term uptrend, putting the USD/CHF on course to challenge resistance levels and target the nine-month high. On the other hand, if there’s sustained selling pressure, the pair may continue probing lower support levels. A breakdown below the 0.8900 threshold could lead to further losses, with ongoing RSI weakness support for bearish sentiment and pushing the pair towards the lower lows seen in the last couple of months. A breakdown below key support levels may deepen the fall, suggesting that persistent bearish conditions may push USD/CHF to challenge lower levels.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Weakened Due to Trade Tensions and Minor USD Decline: Major Market Developments

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  • February 20, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair has weakened to the 0.9025 level, ending a three-day winning streak due to fresh US Dollar (USD) selling and increasing global trade tensions. New tariff threats from the previous US President Donald Trump have created fear of a trade war, driving demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). In addition, a drop in US Treasury bond yields and a risk-averse market sentiment have added to the pressure on the USD. Expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook may, however, offer some relief to the USD, potentially capping further losses in the pair. Market participants now look forward to future US economic releases such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, for new trading hints.  KEY LOOKOUTS • New trade war fears induced by fresh threats from Donald Trump support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and clobber USD/CHF. • Rebounding selling in the US Dollar, combined with falling Treasury yields, bears on USD/CHF even as a hawkish Federal Reserve tone lends some support. • Market participants look to important US economic data releases, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which have the potential to impact USD/CHF price action. • Federal Reserve commentary could shed light on future monetary policy, potentially influencing market sentiment and fueling USD/CHF volatility. USD/CHF is under pressure as increased US Dollar (USD) weakness and rising trade tensions cool investor appetite. Fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump have fueled fears of an impending trade war, propelling demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). Further, a drop in US Treasury bond yields has eclipsed the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed), capping USD’s revival. But the next releases of US economic data, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and speeches by influential FOMC members may bring new information about monetary policy and drive USD/CHF price action in the next sessions. The USD/CHF currency pair loses ground as increased USD selling and growing trade tensions spur demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc. Falling US Treasury yields dominate the Fed’s hawkish tone, while future US economic releases and FOMC speeches could direct additional price action. • The pair falls to the 0.9025 region, ending a three-day winning streak in the wake of increased USD selling and escalating trade tensions. • New tariff news drives international trade war fears, which support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). • Weakening US Treasury bond yields and overall risk aversion hold down the US Dollar, which restricts its rally. • In spite of dovish FOMC minutes, hopes of a prolonged rate pause can lend some support to the USD. • Watch US Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for indications of economic health and potential market effect. • Remarks by Federal Reserve officials may influence expectations of monetary policy and guide USD price action. • A drop below 0.9025 can expose the pair to more weakness, with the next important support in the 0.8970-0.8965 zone. The USD/CHF currency pair continues to be affected by the developments in world trade and investors’ mood, especially following recent tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump. The threat of new tariffs created fears of an impending trade war, leading to investors’ appetite for safe assets such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). This change of market sentiment reflects wider economic uncertainty, as the policies of trade continue to weigh on global financial stability. Furthermore, the conservative tone in equity markets suggests investors are taking prudent stock of risks, with a special emphasis on safe-haven currencies in light of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, the movement of the US Dollar is influenced by a combination of economic signals and policy expectations. Although the Federal Reserve has been hawkish, recent market developments indicate that investors are keenly interested in future releases of economic data. Important reports such as the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are likely to reveal more about the health of the US economy. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials’ speeches can provide greater insight into monetary policy in the future, shaping market expectations and impacting overall investor sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF currency pair has been resisted at the 0.9055 level, where selling pressure was witnessed, resulting in a pullback towards the 0.9025 region. The pair’s failure to hold gains indicates a possible change in momentum, with traders closely monitoring major support levels around 0.8970-0.8965. A breakdown of this level could set the stage for additional decline, while a rebound from here might signal consolidation or fresh buying interest. To the upside, continued action over 0.9055 could enhance bullish pressure, driving the pair to the next resistance around 0.9100. Momentum oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages will play a key role in establishing the next directional impulse. FORECAST If the USD strengthens on hawkish Federal Reserve cues or better-than-anticipated US economic news, the USD/CHF currency pair may try to bounce back. A breakout above the 0.9055 resistance level may encourage more buying interest, and the pair may head towards the 0.9100 psychological level. Any relief in global risk appetite or relaxation in trade tensions also may take away demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc, supporting the USD. Investors will also be monitoring future FOMC speeches for interest rate direction clues, which would support the dollar and push the pair higher. To the downside, ongoing global trade tensions and risk aversion may keep the Swiss Franc underpinned, capping any USD/CHF recovery. If the pair cannot hold above the 0.9025 area, it may see losses extend to the 0.8970-0.8965 support area. A clean breakdown below this level could initiate further selling pressure, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper losses. Weaker

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Currencies

USD/CHF Price Outlook: Fails to Hold Ground Above 0.9000 Due to Dollar Weakness and SNB Policy Rumors

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  • February 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fails to hold ground above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar grapples with weakness in holding its recovery. Although the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to keeping interest rates unchanged, the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, fueled by weak inflation figures, increases the likelihood of negative interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near the 107.00 level, capping the upside for USD/CHF. The technical indicators indicate declining bullish momentum, with the 14-week RSI dropping from the high bullish zone. A clean break above 0.9244 will open the way for a further rise, while a fall below 0.9000 might initiate a deeper slide towards significant support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive fall below this level may cause further weakness, testing the crucial support levels at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates between 4.25%-4.50% favors the US Dollar but caps its upside potential. • Weak CPI data feeds speculation of possible negative interest rates, weakening the Swiss Franc and influencing USD/CHF’s direction. • A move above the October 2023 high may leave the way open towards the significant resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The USD/CHF currency pair is at a crossroads with the inability of the currency to hold on to levels above the psychological mark of 0.9000. The steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve defends the US Dollar, but a decline in the momentum in the Dollar Index (DXY) keeps gains on a leash. While this, coupled with the dovish tone from the Swiss National Bank, fuel rumors of negative interest rates that might further soften the Swiss Franc, the pair is technically due a strong breakout above 0.9244 to continue its rally towards 0.9300 and beyond. A fall below 0.9000 may see it slide further to significant support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. USD/CHF has difficulty staying above 0.9000 as the US Dollar is met with resistance and the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank causes the Franc to weaken. Further gains may be triggered by a breakout above 0.9244, and a fall below 0.9000 can cause a deeper correction. • The pair cannot hold gains above this psychological level as the US Dollar runs out of steam. • Keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by the Federal Reserve favors the Dollar but caps upside. • Soft inflation numbers add to speculation that the SNB could start negative interest rates, which would weaken the Swiss Franc. • The DXY is unable to hold above 107.00 levels, which affect the short-term price action of the USD/CHF pair. • A breakout above this level may signal more advancements to 0.9300 and 0.9342 levels. • A fall below 0.9000 may initiate further weakness, challenging support at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The 14-week RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that bearish momentum in USD/CHF is waning. The USD/CHF currency pair is struggling to hold above the important psychological level of 0.9000, as the US Dollar cannot hold its advance. Though the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its policy of maintaining interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still unstable near 107.00, capping the rally for USD/CHF. The market sentiment has also been affected by fear of future trade policies under former US President Donald Trump, and thus there is uncertainty in currency movements. At the same time, on the Swiss side, also fueling rumor has been soft inflation data that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might drive interest rates into negative numbers in order to avoid prolonged deflation, which could weaken the Swiss Franc further in the short term. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/CHF currency pair cannot maintain above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar is confronted with resistance in the face of a volatile DXY and stable Federal Reserve policy. In contrast, poor Swiss inflation figures have increased speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may drive interest rates into negative territory, further weakening the Swiss Franc. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in the process of consolidating, with major resistance at 0.9244 serving as a critical breakout level for additional gains up to 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.8947 is rising, reflecting long-term bullish inclination. Yet, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the bullish area of 60.00-80.00 into the neutral area of 40.00-60.00, reflecting the loss of upside momentum. If the pair is unable to hold at 0.9000, it may force a downside motion towards major support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. A strong break above 0.9244 or below 0.9000 will set the next major trend for USD/CHF. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair has the potential to move up if it can break above the major resistance level of 0.9244. A clean breakout above this level may initiate a rally towards the subsequent resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still remains in an upward slope, which is an indication of a long-term bull trend. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a stable interest rate policy while US economic fundamentals continue to remain robust, the US Dollar can again strengthen, driving USD/CHF upward. Any indication of additional monetary tightening or hawkish remarks from the Fed can serve as a trigger for a sustained bullish trend. On the bearish side, a breakdown below the psychological support of 0.9000 can indicate a more severe correction in the pair. A break below this point can leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further losses, with important support points at 0.8958 and 0.8900. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped out of its bullish zone, signaling declining momentum, which will put further pressure on the pair downwards. Further, if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not undertake aggressive rate reductions and the Swiss Franc rises due to risk-off sentiment across the globe, USD/CHF can experience selling pressure. Any surprise US monetary policy developments or

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