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USD/CHF Remains Above 0.7900 Due to Fed Uncertainty and Dampening Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 24, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair is holding above the 0.7900 level, sandwiched by offsetting market forces. The weaker US Dollar, fueled by doubts over the path of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and fears regarding its autonomy, remains a headwind for the pair. At the same time, weakening demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc, while renewed optimism in global trade and improving risk appetite, assists in curbing further losses. As investors wait to hear important economic data and central bank announcements, the pair is stuck in a range close to a multi-week low, indicative of risk-averse market tone. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market’s interest continues to focus on the timing and speed of prospective rate cuts and pressure on the Federal Reserve’s autonomy. • Geopolitical tensions ease and trade optimism lower demand for the Swiss Franc, driving USD/CHF movement. • Flash PMIs, US Weekly Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales data are likely to fuel short-run volatility in the pair. • The European Central Bank policy statement can influence overall market sentiment and, through that, impact USD/CHF dynamics indirectly. The USD/CHF currency pair is directionless around the 0.7920 level, as market participants balance shorts against opposing forces in the market. The US Dollar remains under pressure as there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s next step and growing concern over political intervention in monetary policy. In contrast, global trade optimism and a favorable risk environment are easing demand for the Swiss Franc, which has historically been considered a safe-haven currency. This tug-of-war has left the pair range-bound, with investors waiting for new catalysts from future economic data and central bank announcements to define the next clear directional path. USD/CHF trades at a narrow range above 0.7900 as opposing forces keep the pair weighed down. Weak US Dollar and declining safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc cancel each other out. Traders wait for major economic data for new directional signals. • USD/CHF consolidates higher around 0.7900, close to a three-week low. • US Dollar weakens on uncertainty regarding Fed’s rate cut trajectory and political interference issues. • Safe-haven demand for CHF dissolves in the face of growing global trade optimism and risk-on sentiment. • Trump’s public rebuke of Fed Chair Powell and buzz surrounding a new Fed nominee join the pressure on USD. • Favorable trade updates with Japan and the EU underpin market risk appetite. • Market participants look to subsequent economic indicators, such as flash PMIs, US jobless claims, and property sales. • Later today’s ECB policy decision might have an effect on sentiment and market volatility worldwide. The USD/CHF currency pair is right now moving through a challenging environment influenced by both economic and political trends. On the one hand, the US Dollar is under pressure by increasing doubt regarding the Federal Reserve’s direction for interest rates. Speculation regarding possible political meddling in the Fed’s autonomy has merely reinforced market prudence. President Trump’s frequent disparagement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and speculation regarding a probable leadership shake-up have created anxiety among investors, inhibiting any robust bounce-back by the greenback. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, a tide of trade optimism is shaping market sentiment. Buoyant hints from continuing trade talks, such as an agreement with Japan and advances in negotiations with the European Union, have helped raise investor optimism. The optimism has deflated demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, providing some support to the USD/CHF pair. As there are upcoming releases of economic data and announcements from the central banks, traders remain cautious, waiting for more definitive signals to inform their next decisions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in a tight consolidation close to the 0.7920 level, slightly above the critical support of 0.7900. The pair stays below its short-term moving averages, suggesting a bearish bias, whereas momentum indicators such as RSI are close to neutral levels, showing indecision in the marketplace. A persistent break below 0.7900 would open up the next support at 0.7860, while any attempt at a rebound would have to overcome 0.7960 to stimulate fresh buying interest and change the short-term outlook to the upside. FORECAST Unless sentiment improves further and future US economic reports surprise to the upside, the USD/CHF currency pair may experience a mild rebound. Encouraging news around the US economy or खबर regarding the policy direction by the Federal Reserve could encourage the US Dollar to gain strength. In that scenario, a breakout above the 0.7960 resistance level could initiate a journey towards the 0.8000 psychological level, with additional bullish pressure potentially aiming for 0.8040 in the near term. Conversely, if uncertainty about the Fed leadership picks up or US economic releases disappoint, the USD could continue on the back foot. This might keep pushing USD/CHF below that crucial 0.7900 support level. A strong breach of this level could result in additional losses down to 0.7860, with prolonged weakness potentially setting the stage for a fall to the 0.7820 region, particularly if risk appetite remains upbeat and safe-haven demand into the CHF rises.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Slumps to Two-Month Lows Following Intensifying Middle East Tensions and Increasing Safe-Haven Appetite

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  • June 13, 2025
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USD/CHF continued its losing momentum, falling to a two-month low at 0.8056 following increasing Middle East geopolitics-related tensions that boosted the Swiss Franc’s safe-haven appetite. The duo remained weak around 0.8070 in the Asian session, under pressure from Israel’s said military attacks on several Iranian nuclear facilities, heightening concerns about a broader regional war. Israel’s officials announced a state of emergency, while the US dissociated itself from the attacks, highlighting the protection of its staff. Moreover, US President Trump’s move to broaden steel tariffs on in-bound derivative products lowered market sentiment further, adding to the bear pressure on the USD/CHF. KEY LOOKOUTS • Escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. • The United States distances itself from Israel’s actions and is focused on defending American troops and preventing further escalation. • The Swiss Franc strengthens as investors look for cover with rising geopolitical tensions and possible retaliatory threats from Iran. • US President Trump’s widening of steel tariffs on derivative products imported into the US contributes to worldwide trade worries, continuing to pressure the USD. The USD/CHF pair continued falling, hitting a two-month low as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid rising tension between Israel and Iran. Reports had it that Israel conducted raids on various Iranian nuclear facilities, and the fears of increased regional turmoil ensued. In reaction, Israeli authorities announced a state of emergency, but the US administration maintained its affirmation of non-engagement, stressing its commitment to protecting its personnel deployed in the area. Meanwhile, risk sentiment suffered another blow with President Trump’s move to widen tariffs on steel derivative products imported into the US, piling pressure on the already strained US Dollar. USD/CHF falls to a two-month low as heightened Middle East tensions and increased safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc drag it down. Increased US tariffs and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities further sully market sentiment, piling pressure on the US Dollar. • USD/CHF reaches two-month low of 0.8056 on increased geopolitical tensions. • Israel launches series of attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating fears of regional conflict. • Israeli Defense Minister declares emergency in preparation for potential retaliation. • Swiss Franc benefits from enhanced safe-haven demand amid heightened risk-off mood. • The United States stays away from Israel’s actions, emphasizing protecting its troops. • US President Trump widens steel tariffs on derivative goods imported from overseas, weighing down world trade outlook. • USD/CHF continues to be pressured by ongoing geopolitical and trade risks weighing over market sentiment. The Middle East geopolitical landscape has moved to the forefront as Israel conducted a string of airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Israeli leadership referred to the existential threat presented by Iran’s nuclear ambitions as the motivation behind these pre-emptive strikes. As a response to the escalating tensions, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a special state of emergency, threatening missile and drone strikes as a retaliatory measure from Iran. This escalated conflict has contributed to heightened investor anxieties over wider regional stability, with markets responding quickly to the unfolding drama. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, US political and economic events contributed to overall market reserve. The White House, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, clarified that the United States did not partake in Israel’s military action and highlighted its priority of protecting American personnel who are stationed in the region. In addition, US President Trump declared an increase in tariffs on steel derivative products, further increasing trade-related uncertainties. These collective factors have produced a volatile environment for investors, promoting changes in market dynamics as well as global risk sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF broke below important support levels and touched a two-month low of 0.8056. The pair continues trading under pressure, below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reflecting continuous bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making its way towards oversold levels, which indicates a possibility of minor corrective ups; however, the dominant bearish bias is still in place unless the pair is able to recapture resistance around the 0.8120-0.8150 area. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty can keep the pair under pressure in the short term. FORECAST If geopolitics improve or diplomatic initiatives succeed in reducing tensions between Iran and Israel, risk sentiment might pick up, and hence safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc could diminish. Under this scenario, USD/CHF may try to make a comeback with initial resistance around the 0.8120 level. A break above this area would open the way towards 0.8180 and even towards the psychological 0.8200 level. Downside: In the event of further escalation of tensions or more retaliatory attacks, safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc will be likely to gain strength, sending USD/CHF down. A clear break below the new low of 0.8056 may open the way for the pair to suffer further falls to 0.8020 and even 0.8000. Ongoing trade policy uncertainties can also fuel persistent bearish pressure on the US Dollar.

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USD/CHF Flatlines Before US NFP Release as Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Influence Market Sentiment

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair was flat at about 0.8290 in Friday’s Asian session as investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the highly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Hope for prospective trade deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan, together with China’s openness to discussing trade, offered some support to the US Dollar. Nevertheless, fears regarding tariffs’ effects on inflation and growth, as well as disappointing weaker-than-expected US GDP readings for Q1 2025, limited the Greenback’s gains. Also, ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially over Ukraine, may support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, curbing any potential USD gains before the NFP release, which is forecast to report 130K job additions for April. KEY LOOKOUTS •   Later on Friday, the release of the US NFP report is an event to monitor, with a forecast for 130K job additions in April. A deviation from this number could strongly affect USD/CHF. •  The continued evolution of US trade negotiations with India, South Korea, Japan, and China is of paramount importance. Favorable progress may underpin the USD, while setbacks or escalations may undermine it. •  The geopolitical environment, especially in Ukraine, is still a cause for concern. Any further escalation would trigger higher demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, which could weigh on USD/CHF. •  With the US economy shrinking by 0.3% in Q1 2025, market participants will be watching how economic growth issues, as well as inflationary pressures from tariffs, could impact the trajectory of the USD. USD/CHF pair is at the moment in a wait-and-see mode around 0.8290, as the traders wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) later today. The NFP, which is due to reflect 130K jobs added in April, may offer the pair some new direction. On the other hand, softening trade tensions, with possible deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China, can provide some support for the US Dollar. Yet, worries regarding the inflationary and growth effects of tariffs, combined with softer-than-forecast Q1 2025 GDP figures, are capping the Greenback’s gains. Moreover, tensions in Ukraine could fuel safe-haven demand for the Swissy, thereby limiting any USD advance. As a result, traders are following these events closely for any hints regarding the direction of USD/CHF going forward. USD/CHF is steady at 0.8290 prior to the US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is anticipated to show a rise of 130K jobs in April. Hopes regarding relaxing trade tensions can support the US Dollar, but fears over economic growth prospects and geopolitical dangers may cap any gains, thus keeping the Swiss Franc in play as a haven. • The USD/CHF currency pair is flat at 0.8290 as market players wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report release later today. • The April NFP report is likely to indicate 130K jobs added, which may affect market sentiment and the direction of the USD. • Postponed trade agreements between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China could prop up the US Dollar by alleviating trade tensions. • The US economy grew at a 0.3% decline in Q1 2025, softer than forecast, and may hint at growth worries and inflation concerns that will cap USD strength. • Further geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, may result in safe-haven demand, such as the Swiss Franc. • The Swiss Franc may gain as a result of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and cap any potential for the USD to rise. • Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance, sidestepping huge positions prior to the release of the NFP and the possibilities of large market-moving news. USD/CHF is staying firm as the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is on the cards to give clues to the well-being of the US labor market. With modest employment growth expected, the report would be able to influence the movement of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the outlook on US trade relations has improved somewhat, with agreements pending with nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan. This good news in global trade can help turn the market concerns around, providing support for the USD. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView But uncertainty over global economic conditions, especially following softer-than-expected US GDP figures for Q1 2025, still dampens sentiment. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions, like the conflict in Ukraine, also add to a risk-averse mood, supporting demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. While markets wait for the NFP report, most of the attention is still on wider economic and political events that may shape the USD/CHF pair in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF has been ranging around the 0.8290 level, with little price action in the run-up to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The pair is still in a tight range, reflecting market uncertainty before the release of the data. A break above or below the current range may give clearer direction, with resistance likely at 0.8320 and support around 0.8250. Such indicators as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are neutral, indicating that there is no strong momentum either way. Traders will tend to watch the NFP announcement closely for breakout indications or a change in momentum that may have an impact on the pair’s short-term path. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release beats forecasts and reflects better-than-expected job creation, the US Dollar may get some boost, helping USD/CHF move past present resistance at 0.8320. Encouraging news about US trade talks with major nations and relaxation in overall global trade tensions can also bolster the USD. Moreover, any decrease in geopolitical risks, particularly for Ukraine, may translate to less need for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, making the way for the USD to appreciate against the CHF. Conversely, however, if the NFP report fails to impress and shows weaker employment growth, or if fear over US economic growth increases with the latest GDP reports, the US Dollar may have a difficult time

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Currencies

USD/CHF Dives Towards 0.8800 Due to Tariff Tensions and Safe-Haven Swiss Franc Demand

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  • March 11, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fell close to the 0.8800 mark in Tuesday’s early European session, weighed down by increasing fears of a global trade war and increasing safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Market mood shifted risk-averse due to concerns of a US economic slowdown fueled by tariff-related uncertainties, which dented the US Dollar. Investors are also looking at the US CPI inflation data due later this week, which may provide hints on the Federal Reserve’s next policy action. With rate cut expectations mounting and stock market volatility increasing, the Swiss Franc remains a strong safe-haven currency. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors are looking to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which may influence inflation expectations and guide the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate actions. • Escalating global trade tensions have increased demand for the Swiss Franc, which is putting downward pressure on USD/CHF and emphasizing risk-aversion sentiment in the market. • Markets are already factoring in 75 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first cut expected in full by June. • Continued uncertainty about US trade policy under the Trump regime continues to put pressure on the Dollar and sustain safe-haven flows into the CHF. The USD/CHF currency pair is under pressure around the 0.8800 level as rising global trade tensions and safe-haven demand keep the market sentiment. Fears of a tariff-led slowdown in the US economy have dented the US Dollar, while the Swiss Franc enjoys its usual safe-haven status. Markets are closely observing the upcoming US CPI inflation report, which may give key insights about the Federal Reserve’s next policy action, particularly as markets expect several rate cuts in the current year. In the environment of increasing risk aversion and policy uncertainty, the Swiss Franc should remain strong against the Greenback in the near future. USD/CHF hovers near 0.8800 as trade tensions fuel safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US CPI data, which could influence Fed rate expectations and further impact the Dollar’s direction. • USD/CHF weakens near 0.8800 amid rising global trade tensions and risk-off sentiment. • Safe-haven demand boosts the Swiss Franc (CHF) as investors seek stability amid economic uncertainty. • Fears of a tariff-induced US economic slowdown bear down on the US Dollar. • Cautious sentiment prevails in markets due to ongoing policy uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy. • Investors watch for the US CPI inflation reading, which is seen offering new guidance on inflation and Fed policy. • Bets on Fed rate cuts rise, with markets pricing 75 basis points of this year’s cuts. • Volatile equity markets put pressure on the USD, adding to CHF’s strength in a risk-averse climate. The USD/CHF cross has been under fresh pressure, falling to the 0.8800 level as trade tensions rise worldwide and investors turn to safe-haven assets. Fears of a tariff-led slowdown in the US economy have set off risk aversion in the markets, with investors turning to historically safer currencies such as the Swiss Franc. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration has further dampened investor sentiment, causing weakness in the US Dollar. As geopolitical risks rise, market participants are becoming increasingly cautious, preferring to move capital into assets perceived as more stable. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In addition to trade-related concerns, all eyes are now on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which could significantly influence economic sentiment. A gentle inflation reading could contribute to current concerns regarding the health of the US economy and fuel expectations of a policy change by the Federal Reserve. In the meantime, safe-haven flows remain in favor of the Swiss Franc in the face of wider market uncertainty. As investors consider these economic indicators and global events, the currency market remains on edge for any new news on inflation data or trade-related headlines. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is witnessing stiff selling pressure around the 0.8800 handle, which has served as an important support base. A breach of this handle consistently might unleash additional bear momentum down towards subsequent levels of support. To the upside, recovery bids might experience sellers at about the 0.8850–0.8880 mark where the same could resume their return. The general trend is still bearish as long as the pair remains below major resistance levels, which means that sellers are in charge of the market momentum at the moment. FORECAST Unless there is a bearish breakdown in USD/CHF below 0.8800 support level, a rebound over the next few days appears possible. Any recovery could target the immediate zone of resistance close to 0.8850–0.8880. A decisive rise above this will instigate the further upside action, which has the potential to target the psychologically important 0.8900 mark. Some favorable US economic data, notably better-than-expected inflation releases, or improved risk sentiment are some of the factors that will support a reversal of the Dollar and push the pair higher short term. On the flip side, if USD/CHF breaks and holds below 0.8800, it may set the stage for more weakness towards the next support points at 0.8750 and 0.8700. Ongoing safe-haven buying of the Swiss Franc, along with escalating market concerns about US trade policy and economic slowing, may keep the pair in pressure. Moreover, dovish cues from the Federal Reserve or softer-than-anticipated US data would also add to the bearish pressure on the US Dollar, hastening the decline in USD/CHF.

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USD/CHF Falls to 0.8950 as Bearish Bias Dominates, Targeting 0.8900 Support

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  • February 24, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair continues to go lower, trading around 0.8960 in Asian trading and sustaining losses for the third straight session. The technical indicators are indicating a persistent bearish bias, with the pair trading below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs and the RSI holding below the 50 mark, supporting further weakening. Market sentiment is pointing towards a move towards the psychological support level of 0.8900, and a break below this level may open the way for a further fall, possibly to the two-month low of 0.8736. On the other hand, a bounce above the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 may indicate a short-term bounce, opening the way for an advance towards the nine-month high of around 0.9201. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair remains under bearish pressure, trading below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which reinforces a continued downtrend and potential further depreciation. • An RSI persistently below 50 underscores the bearish trend, signaling oversold conditions that may prompt an upward correction after further downside extension. • A break below the key support at 0.8900 would trigger further declines, with possible targets being the two-month low of 0.8736 if the selling pressure accelerates. • On the other hand, a break above the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 could be a sign of short-term bounce and lay the groundwork for moving higher towards the nine-month high of 0.9201. USD/CHF is still under strong bearish pressure, trading below the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, which supports a strong downtrend and further weakening. The 14-day RSI always stays below 50, reflecting oversold levels that could trigger a corrective bounce after more price falls. If the pair breaks below the key psychological support of 0.8900, it may speed up a deeper fall towards the two-month low of 0.8736. In contrast, a breakdown below the nine-day EMA at 0.9009 can initiate short-term recovery with a potential stage set for the testing of the nine-month peak around 0.9201. USD/CHF trades below crucial moving averages with the 14-day RSI below 50, indicating bearish sentiment and continued depreciation. Breaking below 0.8900 may send the pair towards the two-month trough at 0.8736, while advancing above 0.9009 may initiate a short-term correction. • Trading close to 0.8960 during Asian trading. • Sustained losses over three consecutive sessions. • Trades below both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, showing bearish momentum. • The 14-day RSI is still below 50, supporting the bearish trend. • Psychological support at 0.8900, a break potentially triggering more declines. • A fall below 0.8900 might have the pair targeting the two-month low at 0.8736. • On the positive side, the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 is serving as the key resistance, with rebound potentially stretching to the nine-month high around 0.9201. USD/CHF continues to be mainly bearish since the pair still continues to display vulnerability in the market. The pair is supported mainly by the sustained selling pressure that has held the pair below critical levels of support. Although the duo has seen its third straight losing day, there is a need to watch for possible changes in market sentiment that may affect its direction in subsequent sessions. Lacking major reversals, USD/CHF may continue being susceptible to more downgrades in light of its prolonged bearish momentum. But traders need to monitor general economic trends or geopolitical events that may influence market trends and investor sentiment. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Most market players are observing the pair with interest, given the general economic uncertainties and global financial trends that may be affecting investor sentiment. In the future, analysts are keeping an eye out for how changes in global economic policies and market risk appetite may affect the USD/CHF dynamic. While some believe the situation will stabilize as market conditions change, others foresee that ongoing caution may cause further adjustments, and thus, keeping an eye on key economic events is crucial. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF shows a strong bearish trend, with the pair persistently trading below its nine-day and 14-day exponential moving averages. The 14-day RSI remaining below the 50 level further indicates the bearish momentum, implying that the market is now in an oversold position. Levels of importance are closely watched, with psychological support at 0.8900 potentially acting as a key hurdle, and potential support around the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 providing a potential turning point should the buyers enter. FORECAST Should market sentiment change and the general public regain confidence in buying the pair, the USD/CHF may break beyond near-term resistance levels, which can trigger a reversal move that would likely drive the pair toward higher ground. Increased buying interest and positive macroeconomic news may help sustain this recovery, and it is possible that a change in momentum is on the cards. If the pair reverses the current bearish momentum and can break above the nine-day EMA, increased buying interest may be seen. A recovery in the 14-day RSI, rising from oversold levels, can aid in forming a short-term uptrend, putting the USD/CHF on course to challenge resistance levels and target the nine-month high. On the other hand, if there’s sustained selling pressure, the pair may continue probing lower support levels. A breakdown below the 0.8900 threshold could lead to further losses, with ongoing RSI weakness support for bearish sentiment and pushing the pair towards the lower lows seen in the last couple of months. A breakdown below key support levels may deepen the fall, suggesting that persistent bearish conditions may push USD/CHF to challenge lower levels.

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USD/CHF Weakened Due to Trade Tensions and Minor USD Decline: Major Market Developments

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  • February 20, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair has weakened to the 0.9025 level, ending a three-day winning streak due to fresh US Dollar (USD) selling and increasing global trade tensions. New tariff threats from the previous US President Donald Trump have created fear of a trade war, driving demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). In addition, a drop in US Treasury bond yields and a risk-averse market sentiment have added to the pressure on the USD. Expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook may, however, offer some relief to the USD, potentially capping further losses in the pair. Market participants now look forward to future US economic releases such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, for new trading hints.  KEY LOOKOUTS • New trade war fears induced by fresh threats from Donald Trump support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and clobber USD/CHF. • Rebounding selling in the US Dollar, combined with falling Treasury yields, bears on USD/CHF even as a hawkish Federal Reserve tone lends some support. • Market participants look to important US economic data releases, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which have the potential to impact USD/CHF price action. • Federal Reserve commentary could shed light on future monetary policy, potentially influencing market sentiment and fueling USD/CHF volatility. USD/CHF is under pressure as increased US Dollar (USD) weakness and rising trade tensions cool investor appetite. Fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump have fueled fears of an impending trade war, propelling demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). Further, a drop in US Treasury bond yields has eclipsed the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed), capping USD’s revival. But the next releases of US economic data, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and speeches by influential FOMC members may bring new information about monetary policy and drive USD/CHF price action in the next sessions. The USD/CHF currency pair loses ground as increased USD selling and growing trade tensions spur demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc. Falling US Treasury yields dominate the Fed’s hawkish tone, while future US economic releases and FOMC speeches could direct additional price action. • The pair falls to the 0.9025 region, ending a three-day winning streak in the wake of increased USD selling and escalating trade tensions. • New tariff news drives international trade war fears, which support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). • Weakening US Treasury bond yields and overall risk aversion hold down the US Dollar, which restricts its rally. • In spite of dovish FOMC minutes, hopes of a prolonged rate pause can lend some support to the USD. • Watch US Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for indications of economic health and potential market effect. • Remarks by Federal Reserve officials may influence expectations of monetary policy and guide USD price action. • A drop below 0.9025 can expose the pair to more weakness, with the next important support in the 0.8970-0.8965 zone. The USD/CHF currency pair continues to be affected by the developments in world trade and investors’ mood, especially following recent tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump. The threat of new tariffs created fears of an impending trade war, leading to investors’ appetite for safe assets such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). This change of market sentiment reflects wider economic uncertainty, as the policies of trade continue to weigh on global financial stability. Furthermore, the conservative tone in equity markets suggests investors are taking prudent stock of risks, with a special emphasis on safe-haven currencies in light of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, the movement of the US Dollar is influenced by a combination of economic signals and policy expectations. Although the Federal Reserve has been hawkish, recent market developments indicate that investors are keenly interested in future releases of economic data. Important reports such as the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are likely to reveal more about the health of the US economy. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials’ speeches can provide greater insight into monetary policy in the future, shaping market expectations and impacting overall investor sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF currency pair has been resisted at the 0.9055 level, where selling pressure was witnessed, resulting in a pullback towards the 0.9025 region. The pair’s failure to hold gains indicates a possible change in momentum, with traders closely monitoring major support levels around 0.8970-0.8965. A breakdown of this level could set the stage for additional decline, while a rebound from here might signal consolidation or fresh buying interest. To the upside, continued action over 0.9055 could enhance bullish pressure, driving the pair to the next resistance around 0.9100. Momentum oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages will play a key role in establishing the next directional impulse. FORECAST If the USD strengthens on hawkish Federal Reserve cues or better-than-anticipated US economic news, the USD/CHF currency pair may try to bounce back. A breakout above the 0.9055 resistance level may encourage more buying interest, and the pair may head towards the 0.9100 psychological level. Any relief in global risk appetite or relaxation in trade tensions also may take away demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc, supporting the USD. Investors will also be monitoring future FOMC speeches for interest rate direction clues, which would support the dollar and push the pair higher. To the downside, ongoing global trade tensions and risk aversion may keep the Swiss Franc underpinned, capping any USD/CHF recovery. If the pair cannot hold above the 0.9025 area, it may see losses extend to the 0.8970-0.8965 support area. A clean breakdown below this level could initiate further selling pressure, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper losses. Weaker

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USD/CHF Price Outlook: Fails to Hold Ground Above 0.9000 Due to Dollar Weakness and SNB Policy Rumors

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  • February 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fails to hold ground above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar grapples with weakness in holding its recovery. Although the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to keeping interest rates unchanged, the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, fueled by weak inflation figures, increases the likelihood of negative interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near the 107.00 level, capping the upside for USD/CHF. The technical indicators indicate declining bullish momentum, with the 14-week RSI dropping from the high bullish zone. A clean break above 0.9244 will open the way for a further rise, while a fall below 0.9000 might initiate a deeper slide towards significant support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive fall below this level may cause further weakness, testing the crucial support levels at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates between 4.25%-4.50% favors the US Dollar but caps its upside potential. • Weak CPI data feeds speculation of possible negative interest rates, weakening the Swiss Franc and influencing USD/CHF’s direction. • A move above the October 2023 high may leave the way open towards the significant resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The USD/CHF currency pair is at a crossroads with the inability of the currency to hold on to levels above the psychological mark of 0.9000. The steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve defends the US Dollar, but a decline in the momentum in the Dollar Index (DXY) keeps gains on a leash. While this, coupled with the dovish tone from the Swiss National Bank, fuel rumors of negative interest rates that might further soften the Swiss Franc, the pair is technically due a strong breakout above 0.9244 to continue its rally towards 0.9300 and beyond. A fall below 0.9000 may see it slide further to significant support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. USD/CHF has difficulty staying above 0.9000 as the US Dollar is met with resistance and the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank causes the Franc to weaken. Further gains may be triggered by a breakout above 0.9244, and a fall below 0.9000 can cause a deeper correction. • The pair cannot hold gains above this psychological level as the US Dollar runs out of steam. • Keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by the Federal Reserve favors the Dollar but caps upside. • Soft inflation numbers add to speculation that the SNB could start negative interest rates, which would weaken the Swiss Franc. • The DXY is unable to hold above 107.00 levels, which affect the short-term price action of the USD/CHF pair. • A breakout above this level may signal more advancements to 0.9300 and 0.9342 levels. • A fall below 0.9000 may initiate further weakness, challenging support at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The 14-week RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that bearish momentum in USD/CHF is waning. The USD/CHF currency pair is struggling to hold above the important psychological level of 0.9000, as the US Dollar cannot hold its advance. Though the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its policy of maintaining interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still unstable near 107.00, capping the rally for USD/CHF. The market sentiment has also been affected by fear of future trade policies under former US President Donald Trump, and thus there is uncertainty in currency movements. At the same time, on the Swiss side, also fueling rumor has been soft inflation data that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might drive interest rates into negative numbers in order to avoid prolonged deflation, which could weaken the Swiss Franc further in the short term. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/CHF currency pair cannot maintain above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar is confronted with resistance in the face of a volatile DXY and stable Federal Reserve policy. In contrast, poor Swiss inflation figures have increased speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may drive interest rates into negative territory, further weakening the Swiss Franc. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in the process of consolidating, with major resistance at 0.9244 serving as a critical breakout level for additional gains up to 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.8947 is rising, reflecting long-term bullish inclination. Yet, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the bullish area of 60.00-80.00 into the neutral area of 40.00-60.00, reflecting the loss of upside momentum. If the pair is unable to hold at 0.9000, it may force a downside motion towards major support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. A strong break above 0.9244 or below 0.9000 will set the next major trend for USD/CHF. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair has the potential to move up if it can break above the major resistance level of 0.9244. A clean breakout above this level may initiate a rally towards the subsequent resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still remains in an upward slope, which is an indication of a long-term bull trend. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a stable interest rate policy while US economic fundamentals continue to remain robust, the US Dollar can again strengthen, driving USD/CHF upward. Any indication of additional monetary tightening or hawkish remarks from the Fed can serve as a trigger for a sustained bullish trend. On the bearish side, a breakdown below the psychological support of 0.9000 can indicate a more severe correction in the pair. A break below this point can leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further losses, with important support points at 0.8958 and 0.8900. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped out of its bullish zone, signaling declining momentum, which will put further pressure on the pair downwards. Further, if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not undertake aggressive rate reductions and the Swiss Franc rises due to risk-off sentiment across the globe, USD/CHF can experience selling pressure. Any surprise US monetary policy developments or

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