Forex Trading Tools and Services

Currencies

USD/CHF Remains Steady Around 0.8850 as Dollar Recovers and Swiss Franc Drops on Better Risk Mood

  • BY
  • March 24, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The USD/CHF currency pair remains steady around the 0.8850 level, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar on the back of increasing Treasury yields and a dovish Federal Reserve policy. In spite of ongoing fears of a slowdown in the US economy, the greenback is showing resilience in anticipation of the important S&P Global PMI release. At the same time, the Swiss Franc is under pressure downwards with improving global risk appetite and recent policy relaxation by the Swiss National Bank, which cut its key interest rate to 0.25%. Geopolitical events and changing trade policies also affect market forces, keeping investors’ eyes on the horizon for forthcoming economic indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders closely observe the initial US PMI figures for March, which would provide new information on the health of the US economy and have an impact on the direction of the USD. • Increasing yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds are driving the Dollar’s rebound — increased movements in yields will dictate short-term USD/CHF momentum. • Since the SNB rate cut to 0.25%, markets are closely looking at signs or signals regarding future direction of monetary policy and inflation in Switzerland. • Relief on easing geopolitical tensions and changes to US trade policy are lowering demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc — ongoing change in risk appetite could lead to further CHF weakness. The release of the US S&P Global PMI data for March later today will be key in determining the health of the US economy and influencing market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. On top of this, increasing US Treasury yields remain supportive of the US Dollar, with any further movement set to affect the pair. Conversely, the recent 0.25% rate cut by the Swiss National Bank has put pressure on the Swiss Franc, with markets anticipating any policy guidance. In the meanwhile, a better global risk environment and deviously softening geopolitical tensions are suppressing demand for defensive currencies such as the CHF, possibly setting the stage for further USD/CHF gains. Traders look to the US S&P Global PMI, which may give new direction to USD/CHF. Higher US Treasury yields continue to underpin the Dollar, while the Swiss Franc is pressured after the SNB rate cut and better global risk appetite. • USD/CHF is trading around 0.8850, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. • US Dollar strengthens as market mood improves in spite of fears of an impending economic slowdown. • US S&P Global PMI for March is eagerly awaited and could shape further USD action. • Fed continues to have a hawkish stance, with Chair Powell reiterating strong labor markets and ongoing inflation threats. • Swiss Franc loses ground as risk appetite increases, diminishing demand for traditional safe-haven currencies. • Swiss National Bank lowered rates to 0.25%, a new low since September 2022, citing low inflation. • Geopolitical tensions reduce, and changing US trade policies further dampen CHF strength. The USD/CHF currency pair remains influenced by overall economic and geopolitical trends. The US Dollar remains robust as market optimism increases based on encouraging Federal Reserve signals and growing optimism over the US economy. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a solid labor market and consistent movement toward inflation goals, which has bolstered investor confidence. Meanwhile, the next US economic data, especially the S&P Global PMI, will provide additional information on economic conditions and influence market expectations. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the Swiss Franc is under pressure as a result of better global risk appetite and recent policy moves by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB interest rate cut indicates its attempt to boost domestic economic activity in the face of low inflation. Also, softening geopolitical tensions and changing trade strategies are decreasing the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Franc. As the world economic outlook improves, the demand for currencies such as the USD can be expected to increase further, influencing the trend of USD/CHF in the near future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF remains bullish-biased as the pair consolidates above important support levels, reflecting consistent buying interest. The current upward momentum indicates that buyers are still in charge, with the pair holding firm around the 0.8850 region. If the price is able to hold above this support, then it could potentially set the stage for further bullish movement in the near future. Traders would need to look out for levels of resistance coming up ahead as well as observe any indication of reversal or consolidation that would change short-term sentiment in the markets. FORECAST  USD/CHF may witness additional gains, particularly if future US economic releases like the PMI reports are stronger than anticipated. Higher US Treasury yields and persistent Federal Reserve hawkishness might also continue to buoy the US Dollar in the near future. Increased investor optimism and lower Swiss Franc safe-haven demand might also contribute to the upward pressure, moving the pair towards higher resistance levels in the near future. On the other hand, if any disappointing economic data from the US or rising fears of any slowdown are indicated, the Dollar can be pushed down and force a pullback in USD/CHF. Moreover, in case the overall risk sentiment falters in the face of some unforeseen geopolitical events, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc can increase. A more robust CHF, in conjunction with uncertainty in the markets or a dovish change in Fed expectations, might result in a short-term correction or downward pressure on the pair.

Read More
Currencies

USD/CHF Closes at a Flat Note Around 0.9050 on Thursday as Investors Wait for Swiss Trade Balance and US GDP Report

  • BY
  • January 30, 2025
  • 0 Comments

USD/CHF was flat around 0.9070 during the Asian session on Thursday as investors await the much-awaited economic releases from both Switzerland and the United States. This currency pair remains mostly driven by a weaker US Dollar, where the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers below 108.00. Investors are waiting for the US Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, which is expected to show slowing annualized growth to 2.6% from 3.1% previously, together with rising concerns about inflation. In Switzerland, the ZEW Survey Expectations for January came out at 17.7, a strong improvement from -20. Market participants also observe the Swiss Trade Balance and KOF Leading Indicator data scheduled on Thursday to catch more directional movement for USD/CHF. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trade expects US GDP, which comes in at a slow rate at 2.6% and will thus come down from previous figures of 3.1%, hence boosting the strength of the USD currency and general feelings of the markets. • Switzerland’s trade balance data for December could impact CHF demand, providing insight into the country’s export performance and economic health. • The Fed’s cautious stance and recent policy statements may drive USD movement, with investors analyzing inflation signals and future rate decisions. • The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator for January will offer clues about Switzerland’s economic outlook, potentially affecting USD/CHF price action. USD/CHF is under focus as market participants await some key economic releases that are expected to drive market direction. The US Q4 GDP report, which is likely to come in at 2.6% from 3.1%, will be keenly watched to see how this affects the strength of the USD. Meanwhile, the Swiss Trade Balance for December and the KOF Leading Indicator for January are due for release, which would give a good idea of the economic outlook in Switzerland. However, the Federal Reserve is still holding back on monetary policy, from no instant rate cuts despite recent reductions. All these factors together determine how markets react to or follow the near-term movement of the USD/CHF in line with financial performance and the decisions of the central bank. USD/CHF remains stable as traders wait for the key economic data, including the US Q4 GDP report and Switzerland’s Trade Balance. The Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary policy and inflation concerns continue to affect the movement of USD and keep investors vigilant about the changing market sentiment. • The pair stays stable around 0.9070 as traders wait for the key economic data for fresh market direction. • Expected to slow to 2.6% from 3.1%, impacting USD strength and overall investor sentiment. • December’s trade balance release will provide insights into Switzerland’s export performance and economic stability. • Switzerland’s economic outlook will be assessed based on the upcoming KOF Leading Indicator for January. • The Fed’s cautious approach to interest rates influences market expectations and USD movement. • The US Q4 GDP Price Index is projected to rise to 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. • Traders closely follow economic indicators and central bank signals to figure out the next move of USD/CHF. USD/CHF remains steady at around 0.9070 while waiting for important economic data releases both from the US and Switzerland. The US Q4 GDP report is going to be released that is likely to reflect the slowing down of economic growth. A decline from 3.1% to 2.6% is estimated. This data, along with the US GDP Price Index rising to 2.5%, highlights persistent inflation concerns that may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Meanwhile, the Fed’s recent decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and its cautious stance on inflation continue to shape market sentiment, potentially providing support for the US Dollar. USD/CHF Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA In Switzerland, investors are closely watching the release of the Swiss Trade Balance for December and the KOF Leading Indicator for January. The Swiss economy showed signs of improvement in January, with the ZEW Survey Expectations jumping to 17.7 from -20, indicating growing optimism. These upcoming data points will offer further insight into Switzerland’s economic health and could impact CHF demand. As the traders assess these indicators, USD/CHF is expected to be responsive to any surprises in economic data or changes in the central bank policies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating around the 0.9070 level after two consecutive days of gains. The pair faces immediate resistance near 0.9100, a psychological level that, if breached, could push the price towards the next resistance at 0.9150. On the downside, support is seen around 0.9020, with a break below potentially opening the door for further declines toward 0.8980. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Meanwhile, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages suggest a mixed trend, with the pair needing a decisive move above resistance or below support to confirm a new directional bias. FORECAST USD/CHF could gain bullish momentum if the pair breaks above the 0.9100 resistance level, which would then signal further upside potential. A sustained move above this level could push the price toward 0.9150, with the next key resistance at 0.9200. The US Dollar might strengthen if the upcoming US Q4 GDP data beats expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Furthermore, ongoing concerns over inflation, along with hawkish Fed statements, are going to push demand for USDs, thus favoring a push higher in USD/CHF. Conversely, selling pressure could occur in USD/CHF, if the quote fails to close above the main support level located at 0.9020. The breakout below the key level might attract the quote downward to 0.8980 and further on to the strong support located at 0.8950. Weak US GDP data or signs of economic slowdown could weigh on the USD, while strong Swiss economic indicators, such as an improved Trade Balance or KOF Leading Indicator, may boost CHF strength. Additionally, any dovish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts could put further downward pressure on USD/CHF in the near term.

Read More
Currencies

USD/CHF Analysis: Struggling As Monetary Policies Diverge

  • BY
  • January 17, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The USD/CHF currency pair dropped during Friday’s European session and continued to stay near the significant support level of 0.9100 despite a strong US Dollar, buoyed by investor apprehension as Donald Trump’s inauguration draws near. The Swiss Franc traded stronger than its peers to cap off the week despite expectations of further monetary easing by the SNB to deal with low inflation. Meanwhile, the US Dollar gained amid anticipation of Trump’s economic policies and a minor increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY). On the technical front, the pair exhibits strong bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages favoring an upside toward 0.9300, though a breach below 0.9000 could signal further weakness. KEY LOOKOUTS • Despite SNB’s dovish stance, CHF gains momentum, outperforming major peers as market participants brace for potential interest rate cuts amid low inflation risks. • The Greenback holds firm ahead of Trump’s inauguration, buoyed by investor optimism over the economic policies that are to be announced soon, even as dovish Fed bets increase following soft CPI data. • USD/CHF is bullish with RSI in the overbought region, and a break above 0.9300 could be seen, but a fall below 0.9000 could lead to bearish moves. • Traders focus on geopolitical and policy developments, with heightened volatility expected as the Swiss Franc and US Dollar react to economic shifts and central bank actions. The USD/CHF pair faced downward pressure during Friday’s European session, testing the critical 0.9100 support level despite the US Dollar maintaining resilience ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. While the Swiss Franc gained momentum against its major counterparts, with market expectations of further rate cuts by the SNB to tackle low inflation risks, the US Dollar remained buoyant. Investor sentiment was cautiously optimistic, with the Greenback finding support in hopes of forthcoming economic reforms, including potential tax cuts and trade policies, despite softer-than-expected US CPI data. On technical levels, it has bullish trends. The pair shows upside movements to 0.9300 based on 14-week RSI, which can break anytime and drop it to the disadvantageous side under 0.9000 support. • As at Friday’s European session, this pair is currently close to holding support at around 0.9100 by the Swiss Franc over the US Dollar. • Interest rate cut by the SNB to check the risk from low inflation might continue to send CHF bullish; therefore, their appeal is better. • Despite softer December CPI data raising dovish Fed bets, the US Dollar remains supported by investor optimism ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. • Traders are cautiously optimistic about potential reforms, including tax cuts and tariffs, expected to impact market sentiment and the USD’s performance. • Indicators such as the 14-week RSI and the 20-week EMA suggest bullish momentum, with resistance levels near 0.9300 in sight. • Further downward moves are likely if the breach below the psychological 0.9000 level is maintained, with the pair targeting around 0.8958 and 0.8900. • USD/CHF’s course will be further complicated by the opposing monetary policy expectations between the SNB and the Federal Reserve, which will keep the market focused on economic news. The USD/CHF currency pair lost marginal ground during Friday’s European session as it hovered near the psychological 0.9100 support area, while the Swiss Franc led its peers in gains. The Swiss National Bank is, therefore, not expected to ease off its dovish stance going forward, despite markets expecting deeper interest rate cuts in a view to combat risks of inflation remaining below target levels. This stance has strengthened the Swiss Franc; however, there is a close attention on the economics of prolonged ease in monetary terms. Despite these advances, the negative for the duo has been curtailed by a resilient US Dollar, which draws strength from still cautious optimism toward President-elect Donald Trump’s ascension to office and the expectations that come with that of economic reform. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA In the US, the Greenback held firm with a softer than expected Consumer Price Index reading in December that left more room to bet on an accommodative Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index (DXY) ticked higher, reflecting market confidence in Trump’s forthcoming policies, including possible tax cuts and trade initiatives. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook for USD/CHF, with the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting strong momentum and a potential upside toward resistance levels at 0.9300. However, if the pair fails to hold above the psychological support of 0.9000, it could signal deeper corrections into November’s high of 0.8958 and December’s low of 0.8900. The differing monetary policy outlooks between the SNB and the Federal Reserve continue to shape the pair’s trajectory, keeping traders vigilant. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/CHF pair is trading near the critical support level of 0.9100, while technical indicators suggest a cautiously bullish bias. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the bullish range of 60-80, showing significant upward momentum, while the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trends upward near 0.8900, bolstering the long-term uptrend of the pair. A break above the October 2023 high of 0.9244 can take the pair towards resistance at 0.9300 and the 16 March 2023 high of 0.9342. Conversely, a drop below the psychological support at 0.9000 could be a catalyst for further downside towards the November 2022 high of 0.8958 and the December 2022 low of 0.8900, which would make them two key levels that traders need to watch. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair will experience a blend of bullish and bearish action as it confronts some critical technical and fundamental factors. On the positive side, the duo may gather momentum if breaks decisively above the October 2023 high at 0.9244, opening the door for testing of round-level resistance at 0.9300. Further exhaustion may take the pair back to its 15-month high at 0.9342 as well with strong bullish gauges incorporating a rising 20-week EMA and an RSI in the robust momentum zone. Deeper gains will be further driven by investor optimism on contemplated US economic reforms and

Read More