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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Dovish Before BoJ Speech Despite Weaker Domestic Figures and USD Recuperation

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  • March 19, 2025
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The Japanese Yen continues to dip after the Bank of Japan announced that it maintained interest rates levels and weaker than anticipated domestic economic data, which include weak machinery orders and unfavorable business sentiment. Although Japan’s trade balance showed improvement and wage growth prospects remain strong, investors remain cautious ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech for clues on future monetary policy moves. Meanwhile, a modest recovery in the US Dollar from a multi-month low has pushed USD/JPY above mid-149.00s, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. Yet, market players wait for significant cues from the BoJ as well as the next FOMC meeting before taking bold directional wagers. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players wait for Ueda’s words for definite indications of future rate hikes and the central bank’s policy direction in the near future. • The 150.00 psychological level continues to be a crucial resistance; a consistent breakout would set off new bullish momentum towards 150.75–151.00 levels. • Deteriorating machinery orders and weakening business sentiment remain in focus for JPY, while trade balance has improved and wages have firmed up. • Attention turns towards the US Federal Reserve policy move, which could have a bearing on USD strength and overall USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen also remains on the weaker side as markets absorb the Bank of Japan’s move to leave interest rates unchanged and lower-than-anticipated domestic data such as disappointing machinery orders and falling business sentiment. Although a tighter trade balance and improving wage deals provide some respite to Japan’s economic prospects, investor sentiment continues to be risk-off ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech, where he is set to give a clue on when rate hikes can be expected. On the other hand, a slight rally in the US Dollar has driven USD/JPY past mid-149.00s, and technical readings are indicating possible additional upside if the pair successfully crosses the 150.00 resistance mark. All eyes now focus on the result of the FOMC meeting, which will potentially mold the path for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen continues to be weak in the face of weak domestic data and the BoJ’s continued rate stance. Now, the markets are waiting for Governor Ueda’s speech and the FOMC result for more direction. A breach above the level of 150.00 may ignite fresh upside in USD/JPY. • The Japanese Yen stays low following the Bank of Japan maintaining its interest rate unchanged at its latest policy meeting. • Sluggish domestic data, such as declining machinery orders and declining business sentiment, weighed on the JPY. • Japan’s trade balance turned positive, driven by robust exports and lower imports. • USD/JPY pushed beyond mid-149.00s on the back of a modest rebound in the US Dollar from a multi-month low. • The resistance in the USD/JPY technicals stands at 150.00, and a clear breakout would encourage additional upside into the 150.75–151.00 zone. • Highly expected are comments from BoJ Governor Ueda for a pointer towards additional interest rate hike cycles and a monetary policy cue. • Markets eagerly await the outcome of the FOMC meeting, as this will drive the next decision in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen is still under pressure after the Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate target unchanged. The action was taken as concerns over Japan’s economic prospects have been increasing, with recent figures indicating a fall in machinery orders and a decline in business sentiment among manufacturers. While the trade balance of the country improved as exports grew and imports decreased, these encouraging trends were dampened by general economic uncertainty. The central bank also admitted that economic growth and inflation risks are still high, making investors hesitant to anticipate the timing of any subsequent policy changes. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, focus turns to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech later this week, set to provide perspective on the direction of future bank policy. Other investors are paying close attention as well to what comes out of the two-day FOMC meeting in America, which would have implications on global financial markets and overall currency trends. In contrast to domestic woes, the news from Japan’s quarterly spring labor talks came as a welcome relief, with companies consenting to healthy wage increases for the third year in a row — something that could aid consumer consumption and push inflation higher in the months ahead incrementally. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has evidenced renewed vigor after rebounding above the mid-149.00s, reflecting buying bias. The latest price action indicates that the buyers are taking over, particularly after a breakout above the important moving averages on the short-term charts. Nevertheless, the pair has a significant resistance level around the 150.00 psychological level, and a break above this level could lead to further upside. To the disadvantage, instant support exists in the proximity of 149.20–149.00, and breaking below that zone can reflect on the impending stall or change of trend to the current uptrend. Buyers and sellers are set to keep close watch at these levels in awaiting verification of the upcoming trend direction. FORECAST As long as the general market mood continues to lean toward the US Dollar and BoJ plays defensive, USD/JPY will quietly drift upward. A clean penetration above the all-important 150.00 psychological level would lay the groundwork for additional gains, with the possible target being in the 150.75–151.00 area in the short term. Upside momentum could be supported by solid US economic fundamentals and any hawkish undertones in the FOMC meeting. Additionally, positive wage growth in Japan could have inflationary ramifications, but with no policy changes indicated by the BoJ, the Yen would find it challenging to regain resilience. Alternatively, if BoJ Governor Ueda signals a tighter outlook or in case of any disappointing US economic data, USD/JPY may be on the downside. A breakout below the 149.00 level may mark a reversal of recent trend and send the currency back into correction. Additive weakness may see the pair decline towards the 148.20–148.00 region, and if mood turns sharply risk-averse,

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Bulls Reign Supreme as BoJ Tightening Bets Pile Up and USD Falters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar, fueled by rising bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and decreasing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. Latest statistics revealing sustained inflation and robust wage increases in Japan has reaffirmed prospects of sustained BoJ policy firming, sending Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. Conversely, the US Dollar is weakening with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to reduce interest rates later this year after weaker-than-anticipated job market data. Also, geopolitical risks and renewed US trade policy concerns are increasing the safe-haven demand for the Yen, keeping the USD/JPY currency pair bearish. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market expects additional BoJ tightening due to ongoing inflation and wage growth, underpinning Japanese Yen strength versus the US Dollar. • Constricting interest rate differential continues to favor the lower-yielding Yen, putting additional downside pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. • Sluggish US employment data and economic worries support multi-Fed rate cut expectations, further undermining the Dollar outlook. • Increasing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty boost investor demand for the Yen as a haven currency. The Japanese Yen continues to be on a solid ground as markets increasingly factor in additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to increasing wage growth and lingering inflation in the local economy. This has seen the yields of Japanese government bonds shoot up, even further reducing the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. In the meantime, the US Dollar falters under increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will launch a rate-cutting cycle after weak labor market data. Contributing to the Yen’s attractiveness is its safe-haven status, which gathers strength in the face of global trade uncertainty and economic worries over US trade policy. These factors combined continue to bear down on the USD/JPY pair, pointing to further downside momentum in the near term. The Japanese Yen remains firm on increasing hopes of BoJ rate hikes and declining US-Japan yield differentials. Poor US economic data and safe-haven buying further dampen the USD/JPY pair. • Rising inflation and robust wage growth enhance the prospects of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. • Japanese government bond yields jumped to 2009 highs, aiding Yen appreciation. • The US-Japan interest rate spread is still decreasing in favor of the Japanese Yen compared to the US Dollar. • Current US jobs data and economic reports increase anticipation of several Fed rate cuts in the current year. • Global uncertainties and trade tensions boost the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • USD/JPY continues to be bearish, with support at around 146.00 and room for further downward movement towards 145.00. The Japanese Yen is still strengthening as hopes rise for additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Robust wage growth and ongoing inflation in Japan have supported the view that the central bank will further tighten its monetary policy. This follows a rise in government bond yields and a significant shift in Japan’s economic landscape, where labor unions are demanding substantial wage hikes. The overall mood indicates increasing optimism over Japan’s economic strength and the BoJ’s willingness to intervene against inflationary pressures. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the US Dollar is in a bearish mood as a result of less-than-anticipated employment figures and increasing fears about the US economic outlook. Market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates ahead of schedule, further eroding the Dollar’s attractiveness. Also, doubts regarding US trade policy and global economic threats continue to fuel the safe-haven appetite for the Japanese Yen. Such divergence in Japan-US central bank policies and attitudes towards the economy continues to remain a major impetus in tightening the Yen’s grip in world markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair presents a bearish picture as it continues to hover below major resistance levels, signifying downward movement. A persistent dip below the 147.00 level can validate further weakening, with the support areas of 146.50 and 146.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels, implying that while the pair might witness some short-term correction or minor pullback, the overall trend will be bearish. Overall, the technical configuration is in favor of sellers, with any bounce likely to meet stiff resistance around 148.00 to 148.70 levels. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 147.00 mark and increases its bullish strength, it could try to undergo a short-term bounce-back. Under such circumstances, the initial resistance would most probably be encountered at the 148.00 level, followed by a stronger resistance near the 148.65–148.70 area. A prolonged passage above this area could initiate further upward momentum towards the psychological 149.00 level. If positive sentiment intensifies, the pair could even rise towards the 149.80–150.00 level, where major supply could restrict further advancements. Conversely, if the pair breaks and holds below 147.00, it may validate additional bearish pressure. The subsequent pivotal support is at 146.50, and a strong break below here would trigger the way for a deeper fall towards 146.00. Further selling momentum can see the pair probe the 145.25–145.00 region, before further support in the vicinity of the 144.80–144.75 region. The overall technical perspective is one of vulnerability for further downside price action, and only strong bullish drivers would help turn the outlook in favor of the pair.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Set for Further Upside as BoJ Rate Hike Bets Build and US-Japan Rate Differentials Narrow

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  • March 6, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) reversed its intraday declines against a faltering US Dollar (USD) and is trading close to a multi-month high, fueled by increasing bets for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rising JGB yields and the decreasing rate differential between the US and Japan remain supportive of the JPY. Nevertheless, fears of US tariffs on Japan, rising US Treasury yields, and positive risk sentiment in the market could cap further appreciation of the safe-haven currency. While the technical indicators hint at a bearish consolidation in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due to be released, which may provide more guidance. A fall below the 148.00 mark is still feasible, while the 150.00 level can act as resistance to any expected bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market expects further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to support the JPY and tighten the US-Japan yield differential. • Future Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other jobs numbers will impact USD sentiment and could guide the next significant move for USD/JPY. • Fears of additional tariffs by the US against Japanese imports could bring uncertainty and affect risk sentiment, which can influence JPY’s safe-haven demand. • USD/JPY is marked at important support around 148.00, with a breakdown lower to intensify downside potential, while resistance around 150.00 might limit rebounds. Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in the spotlight as investors watch for major economic and geopolitical drivers underpinning its direction versus the US Dollar (USD). Hopes for additional rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still underpin the JPY, reducing the US-Japan yield gap and making the currency stronger. In the meantime, the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be a key driver, dictating USD sentiment and determining the next direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Furthermore, fear of possible US tariffs on Japanese imports introduces a degree of uncertainty, which may affect risk appetite and propel demand for safe-haven currencies such as the JPY. Technically, the 148.00 support is still key, with a breach through it possibly fueling further losses, while the 150.00 psychological resistance could limit any near-term bounces. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of BoJ rate hike expectations and a declining US-Japan yield gap. But future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures and fears of possible US tariffs on Japan could sway market sentiment. The major technical levels of 148.00 support and 150.00 resistance will decide the next big move in USD/JPY. • Increasing speculation of additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate increases underpins the JPY and reduces the US-Japan interest rate spread. • The JPY is at a multi-month high against the USD, erasing intraday losses as part of the broader USD weakness. • The coming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and other jobs data will be pivotal in guiding the direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Concerns that the US is going to impose additional tariffs on Japan introduce uncertainty and could influence market sentiment. • Higher Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and declining US Treasury yields make JPY stronger against the USD. • As much as JPY gains on safe-haven demand, rising US bond yields and positive risk tone could keep further gains in check. • USD/JPY has significant support at 148.00, while resistance around 150.00 can cap potential rallies, setting the stage for the next big move. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to benefit from increasing hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to hike interest rates. The change in monetary policy is a testiment to Japan’s changing economic terrain, where economic stability and inflationary pressures have become central concerns. The increase in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields also indicates a shift away from the nation’s historically ultra-loose monetary policy. Consequently, investors are becoming more confident in the JPY as a solid alternative during times of global economic uncertainty. Moreover, Japan’s economic resilience and government policies to maintain growth continue to support market sentiment towards the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical and trade-related issues continue to be significant determinants of market conditions. The recent talks about the possibility of US tariffs on imports from Japan have generated wary mood, given that trade policy can have a broader impact on economic relations between the two countries. Market participants are keeping a close eye on events, as a change in trade relationships may affect Japan’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, the global financial market is keenly watching major economic indicators, especially in the US, where employment figures and fiscal policies might have an impact on wider currency movements. During these events, the JPY continues to be a key factor in the forex market, a reflection of Japan’s economic prowess and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating in a familiar range after a sharp drop from its yearly high around 159.00. The present price action implies a bearish consolidation phase, with momentum indicators on the daily chart remaining in negative ground but not yet triggering oversold readings. This suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist, with major support at the 148.00 level, which, if broken, could speed further losses toward the 147.35 zone. On the positive side, the 149.50-150.00 area represents instant resistance, and any movement above this can possibly lead to a short-covering rally. But overall market sentiment and technical factors will then dominate the move in the next big move in the pair. FORECAST If sentiment is changed in the direction of the US Dollar (USD), then the USD/JPY can make a northward movement if there are any positive surprises on US economic numbers, like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), in the near future. A good jobs report would underpin the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain prudent in the rate-cut stance, favoring the USD. Moreover, if the world risk appetite gets better and equity markets continue

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Currencies USD/JPY

Cautious Yen Rally: BoJ Hike Bets and Falling Back JGB Yields Keep USD/JPY Below 150

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  • February 24, 2025
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The US Dollar has stayed below 150 versus the Japanese Yen, at its lowest against the currency since October, because of increasing expectation that the Bank of Japan will keep raising rates as inflation endures. But backpedaling on JGB yields caps the yen’s gains, as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals willingness to boost bond purchases if long-term yields increase too steeply. Even with USD-selling momentum, the dollar continues to be under pressure, weighed down by poor US economic data and persistent inflation worries. Japanese Yen bulls are going slow as falling JGB yields and chances of moreforceful BoJ rate hikes keep the currency’s regain in check, keeping the USD/JPY pair under the key 150 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Track BoJ actions on bond purchases and policy changes since they can shift market sentiment fast and impact USD/JPY levels through major thresholds. • Monitor JGB yield movements keenly, as falling yields may top the yen’s rise, capping potential USD/JPY rebound and impacting overall market dynamics. • Monitor US economic data releases, such as retail and PMI numbers, because worsening indicators may lead to rapid changes in investor sentiment. • Monitor key technical levels on USD/JPY, as breaks of support or resistance areas may facilitate directional moves and quickly shift market positioning. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Bank of Japan policy moves, as surprise bond-buying interventions or rate hikes could quickly change USD/JPY dynamics. Trends in Japanese Government Bond yields need to be closely watched because steadily falling yields could hamper yen advances and cap pair recovery. It is also important to watch U.S. economic data, including retail sales and PMI numbers, closely because deteriorating data can quickly turn market sentiment. Lastly, monitoring important technical levels on the USD/JPY pair is essential since breaks through set support or resistance areas may force sudden directional movements. Bank of Japan policy and Japanese government bond yields since any surprise movements may rapidly change USD/JPY dynamics. Closely monitor U.S. economic indicators and important technical levels for early indications of shifts in market sentiment. • Yen bulls are still guarded even at a two-month peak, as a result of worries about falling Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. • BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated potential for more bond purchases if yields surge, foreshadowing additional rate hike expectations. • Recent figures reporting Japan’s core inflation at a 19-month peak support projections of more forceful monetary policy tightening. • The USD/JPY pair remains below the pivotal 150 level, with technical resistance anticipated close to this psychological level. • Weaker-than-expected US economic data, such as a disappointing Walmart sales estimate and weakening PMI, have added to renewed USD selling. • Follow-through buying might push the pair upward towards resistance levels, while any weakness in support might set off a more abrupt fall. • There is support on the immediate side around the levels of 148.85-149.00, with downside targets possible at the 147.00 levels if these are broken. Investors in Japanese Yen are being cautious in light of changing market conditions, with expectations of continued policy tightening from the Bank of Japan being muted by efforts to stabilize government bond yields. The central bank has indicated that it is prepared to step in should bond yields climb too steeply, a gesture that highlights its determination to preserve financial stability while coping with the challenges presented by increasing inflation. Recent evidence of a persistent increase in core inflation has further cemented market hopes for more assertive action, even as such policy signals work to contain speculative action in the currency. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, United States economic indicators such as softer retail sales projections and deceleration in general business activity have added to balanced sentiment in international markets. Investors are still keeping an eye on the overall economic environment, where cautious optimism is slowly giving way to a more cautious approach. With policymakers watching these closely, the changing economic story on both sides of the Pacific is to influence monetary strategies in the future without causing sudden changes in market activity. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is currently struggling with major levels that may determine its immediate direction. The close proximity resistance around the 150.00 level acts as a psychological wall, and a prolonged break above this level could set the stage for the pair to aim for higher resistance around the 150.70-150.75 level and higher towards the 150.90-151.00 horizontal support. On the other hand, the region between 148.85 to 148.65 has proven to be a crucial support area, where a breakdown could pave the way for additional losses down to the 147.00-147.45 area. This technical configuration indicates that investors would be keenly watching these levels in order to assess the vigor of potential reversal or continuation moves on the pair’s path. FORECAST If sentiment improves, the USD/JPY pair may witness a gradual upward trajectory. A continued surge through the 150.00 psychological level can create a rally and enable the pair to probe resistance at around the 150.70-150.75 area and then advance towards the 150.90-151.00 zone. Such possible upmove would be underpinned by follow-through purchases and a positive reinterpretation of the policy position of the BoJ, which, if seen as an indicator of faith in Japan’s economic prospects, would fuel fresh investor sentiment. On the negative side, if the immediate support levels around 148.85-148.65 do not hold, the pair can see a sharper fall. A break in this region may trigger a quick change in sentiment, driving the pair lower towards the next support level in the 147.00-147.45 region. In such a case, ongoing vigilance among participants and fresh pressure from USD selling may intensify the fall, placing greater emphasis on these support levels in mitigating the downside risk.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Reaches More Than Two-Month High Versus USD on BoJ Rate Hike Speculation and Global Risk Aversion

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has reached a more than two-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as escalating speculation of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes pushes Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to record-high levels. This narrowing differential rate enhances the Yen’s attractiveness, again fueled by worldwide risk aversion after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs. Even with the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bias, the USD cannot find footing, with investors watching for key support levels around the 150.00 psychological level for USD/JPY. If the bearish pressure persists, the pair may dip further, with resistance around 151.00-152.65 potentially capping any attempts at an upside. Market players now look to US economic data and Fed rhetoric for guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher bets on more BoJ rate hikes drive Japanese government bond yields up, bolstering the Yen and reducing the rate spread. • Investor morale deteriorates as US President Donald Trump hints at fresh tariffs, triggering global risk aversion and increasing demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 psychological level, with a possible downside extension to 149.00 should bearish momentum continue. • Even with a hawkish Fed, the US Dollar fails to make headway, with future economic data and FOMC speeches likely to guide market direction. The Japanese Yen maintains its bullish run on increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and spiking Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate gap bolsters the Yen, and the global risk aversion, which is fueled by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs, adds to safe-haven demand. The US Dollar is still unable to attract buyers, despite the hawkish tone set by the Federal Reserve, and keeps USD/JPY trading below the 150.00 psychological level. Traders now look for major support levels, Fed policy indications, and future US economic data to drive the pair. The Japanese Yen rises as increased BoJ rate hike hopes and jumping JGB yields lift demand. Risk aversion is driven by Trump’s tariff threats, also helping the Yen. The US Dollar, however, lags in spite of the Fed’s hawkishness, leaving USD/JPY close to the pivotal 150.00 mark.  • Increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes drive Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to their highest level in more than a decade. • The Japanese Yen jumps to a two-month high versus the US Dollar as the declining rate differential enhances its attractiveness. • US President Donald Trump’s proposals for fresh tariffs induce global risk aversion, and demand for the safe-haven Yen rises. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 level, with additional downside potential towards 149.00 if bearish momentum persists. • In spite of the Federal Reserve’s conservative sentiment and inflationary worries, the US Dollar has a hard time gaining momentum versus the rising Yen. • Japan’s Trade Minister is set to discuss tariff exclusions with the US, something that may have implications on trade and currency trends. • Market participants look for significant US economic indicators, such as jobless claims and Fed speeches, to provide additional guidance on the USD/JPY currency pair. The Japanese Yen is still firming as hopes rise that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. Increased Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are a sign of the central bank moving away from its extremely loose monetary stance, and this makes the Yen more appealing to investors. Further, the latest economic news, such as Japan’s better-than-expected Q4 GDP, back up the argument that the Japanese economy is healthy enough to digest a rise in interest rates. Such a move in monetary policy is regarded as being a pivotal decision for Japan while it faces the challenges of economic recovery and taming inflation. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, geopolitics and trade tensions contribute to the attractiveness of the Yen as a safe-haven currency. US President Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding new tariffs have disturbed world markets, and investors have turned to more secure assets such as the Yen for stability. Japan’s Trade Minister is also scheduled to discuss possible exemptions from the tariffs, underlining the current trade tensions. In contrast, while taking into consideration the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance with regards to next rate decisions, the US Dollar has not significantly appreciated, as market players still await forthcoming economic data and policy updates from the two nations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair flirts with key 150.00 psychological benchmark, with speculative traders closely looking at key supports and resistances. A clean break below 150.00 would further boost bearish momentum, driving the pair to the 149.60-149.55 area and then down to 149.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, reflecting persistent selling pressure without yet showing signs of being oversold. On the upside, the 150.90-151.00 area now serves as a first resistance level, with any break above likely to initiate a short-covering rally to 151.40. Additional gains may encounter selling interest near the 152.00 level, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.65 is an important pivot point for short-term traders. FORECAST If the USD/JPY pair can hold above the 150.90-151.00 resistance area, it may cause a short-term rebound. Breaking above the level could prompt buyers to take the pair towards the next important barrier at 151.40. Above this, additional upside may be challenged in the vicinity of the 152.00 psychological level, where selling pressure would be expected. But if bullish momentum persists, the level of 152.65, coinciding with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), will be an important level to monitor. A firm break above this would potentially set the stage for additional gains, drawing buyers into higher resistance areas. On the negative side, persistent bear momentum would lead USD/JPY to break below the pivotal 150.00 psychological support. A clean break below this level might boost the selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the subsequent support area of 149.60-149.55. If this level is also breached, the downtrend might continue towards the 149.00 level, followed

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Falls Amid BoJ Rate Hike Expectations, Trump’s Tariff Concerns

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  • February 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is weakening further amid concerns that former US President Donald Trump might impose further trade tariffs against Japan, weighing on the latter’s economy. Though a marginal U.S. Dollar strength in the USD/JPY exchange rate supports this pair, another round of rising expectations for yet another rate hike by the BoJ limits losses in the Japanese Yen. Investors are closely watching Japan’s bond yields, inflation trends, and global market volatility, as the BoJ’s tightening stance contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach. Additionally, technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, making further downside movement a possibility. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors anticipate another Bank of Japan interest rate hike, driven by rising inflation and real wage growth, supporting the Japanese Yen. • Renewed fears of U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminum imports may pressure Japan’s economy, potentially impacting the Yen’s strength. • A strong U.S. Dollar, supported by upbeat job data and Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, influences the USD/JPY pair’s price movement. • The USD/JPY pair faces strong resistance at this confluence zone, with a potential downside move if the pair fails to sustain above it. The Japanese Yen faces a complex trading environment as investors weigh the impact of potential U.S. trade tariffs, a strong U.S. Dollar, and expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). While hawkish BoJ sentiment and rising Japanese bond yields offer support to the Yen, concerns over Trump’s protectionist policies and their inflationary effects continue to pressure the currency. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, coupled with strong U.S. job data, further strengthens the Dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair volatile. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest that the pair remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, with potential downside risks if selling pressure intensifies. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure amid renewed U.S. trade tariff concerns and a strong U.S. Dollar, despite growing expectations of a BoJ rate hike. While rising Japanese bond yields offer some support, technical indicators suggest USD/JPY remains vulnerable below the 152.50-152.45 resistance zone, with potential downside risks. • Investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again, supporting the Yen and narrowing the U.S.-Japan rate differential. • Renewed fears of U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminum imports add pressure on Japan’s economy and the Yen. • Strong U.S. job data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance provide a lift to the U.S. Dollar, impacting USD/JPY movement. • Higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields support the Yen, limiting deeper losses despite global economic concerns. • USD/JPY faces strong resistance at this key confluence zone, making further gains uncertain. • The IMF points out spillover risks for BoJ rate hikes, which include increased costs of debt servicing and financial pressure on corporates. • The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in a volatile range due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, global inflation trends, and central bank decisions. The Japanese Yen remains on the back foot as renewed fears over potential U.S. trade tariffs and a strong U.S. Dollar take a toll on its performance. Former President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raises fears of economic strain on Japan, adding to the Yen’s weakness. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rates, coupled with strong U.S. job data, continues to support the Dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair elevated. Expectations of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also helped limit deeper losses for the Yen, as the widening JGB yields close the interest rate gap between the US and Japan. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/JPY pair faces technical resistance around the 152.50-152.45 confluence zone, suggesting that further upside may be capped short of strong buying momentum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also warned Japan to remain vigilant about potential financial risks stemming from BoJ’s tightening measures, including rising government debt costs and corporate financial stress. Additionally, Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages have shown steady growth, reinforcing the case for further monetary tightening by the BoJ. With ongoing global market volatility and uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, the Yen’s movement remains highly sensitive to economic and geopolitical developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, which includes the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Indicators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, signaling a bearish bias, though not yet in the oversold zone. If the pair fails to sustain above this resistance level, fresh selling pressure could push prices lower towards the 151.25 support, followed by the critical 151.00-150.95 zone. A decisive break below this area could open the door for further declines towards the 150.50 psychological level and 149.60 horizontal support. However, a sustained move above 152.50 may trigger short-covering, allowing the pair to reclaim the 153.00 level, with further upside potential depending on market sentiment and fundamental catalysts. FORECAST The USD/JPY pair could see an upward movement if the U.S. Dollar remains strong, driven by positive economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. A sustained break above the 152.50-152.45 resistance zone could trigger fresh buying interest, allowing the pair to reclaim the 153.00 psychological level. If bullish momentum persists, the next upside target would be 153.50, followed by the 154.00 mark. Further gains could be supported by renewed concerns over Japan’s economic outlook, particularly if the Bank of Japan takes a slower approach to monetary tightening. Any increase in global risk tone may also keep pushing investors toward the U.S. Dollar, as a haven, and subsequently lift USD/JPY more. On the downside, this pair has found some critical supports at 151.25 now, followed by the 151.00-150.95 zone. It can easily head down from that area, touching the next destination at 150.50; that is again a psychological target. If selling pressure intensifies, USD/JPY could extend its decline towards 149.60 and potentially test the December swing low near 148.65. Factors that

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Resilience Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs and BoJ Rate Hike Bets

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  • February 3, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) staged a bit of resilience against the US Dollar (USD), pulling out from its multi-day low even as fears continue to simmer on US President Trump’s proposed trade tariffs. While the widening US-Japan rate differential and global risk-off sentiment weigh on the Yen, bets for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and rising inflation in Tokyo provide some support. However, fears about the economic fallout from new tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, coupled with broad USD strength, continue to limit the Yen’s potential. The BoJ’s ongoing discussions about tightening monetary policy and the narrowing interest rate gap with other economies play a pivotal role in the Yen’s recovery, but its future remains tied to upcoming US macroeconomic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Bank of Japan’s potential interest rate hikes could provide crucial support to the Japanese Yen amidst global uncertainties. • New trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada, Mexico, and China could weigh on global markets, making the JPY vulnerable to economic spillover. • The continued convergence in interest rates between the United States and Japan continues to have a smoothing effect on the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. • The global risk-off sentiment, induced by geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainty, may further enhance the safe-haven status of the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been experiencing mixed pressures lately in trading. The potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) offer some support, but global uncertainty is still present. The narrowing US-Japan yield differential keeps the USD/JPY pair in check, but the Yen remains vulnerable to concerns about the economic impact of US President Trump’s trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. With stronger US Dollar tariffs added to that mix, it will continue weighing down on the Yen’s bullish moment. Yet the safe haven status of JPY is still in place given global risk-off, and more specifically, some data from the United States economy would be seen such as Nonfarm Payrolls for further guidance to the currency pair. The Japanese Yen is supported by Bank of Japan rate hike bets and safe-haven demand amidst global uncertainty, though concerns over US trade tariffs and a strong US Dollar cap its upside potential. Key US economic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls report, will likely influence future price action for USD/JPY. • The Bank of Japan’s discussions on further rate hikes provide some support to the Yen despite global challenges. • Added pressure from Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China limits Yen’s bullish side. • Continuation of the broad-based USD strength continues weighing on the Yen and supports the positive bias on USD/JPY. • Geopolitical and economic risks globally are spurring a risk-off mood; this is seen in the enhanced demand for the Yen as a safe haven currency. • Japan and US have an interest rate differential that helps cap the upside of the pair USD/JPY. • Inflation is rising in Tokyo, and expectations for a hike in BoJ policy support it. The pressure on the Yen has been alleviated a little. • For the next decision in USD/JPY, the upcoming US economic reports are very important, especially Nonfarm Payrolls. The Japanese Yen is facing support and pressure due to various reasons, both at the global level and domestically, in the Forex market. Another hand that perhaps because of increasing inflation in the Tokyo region, the Bank of Japan may increase interest rates. Safe-haven demand amidst global uncertainty also acted as a minor recovery catalyst for the Yen against the US Dollar. However, the imposition of new trade tariffs by US President Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China is continuing to weigh on the Yen on fears of further deleterious impact on the global economy, pushing up the economic instability and curbing gains in the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The interest rate differential continues to narrow between Japan and the US as the former has kept the policy rate at zero, limiting the upside of USD/JPY. Although the US Dollar is generally strong, the Yen finds some refuge in its status as a safe haven and bears the risk-off sentiment. While attention in the markets focuses on major US economic releases-the most impactful perhaps will be the Nonfarm Payrolls-the direction of the USD/JPY pair will largely be guided by whether the US economy remains resilient or if global trade tensions mount further pressure on risk assets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis is a methodology applied in forex and other financial markets to determine the future course of price movement by studying the historical data primarily through charts and technical indicators. The traders try to find potential entry and exit points by concentrating on patterns, trends, and market signals like support and resistance levels, moving averages, and candlestick formations. Unlike fundamental analysis, which focuses on economic data, technical analysis considers that all the information is incorporated into the price, making it a very powerful tool for the short-term trading strategy. Therefore, by noticing recurring price patterns and trends, traders can be better informed about their decisions as well as handle risk better. FORECAST Japanese Yen will see some near-term upswings with expectations of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Tokyo’s inflation increased at its fastest pace in almost a year. In this light, the BoJ may also look to continue the tightening of monetary policy and is likely to continue supporting the Yen. In any case, safe-haven demand for the Yen is also unlikely to lose any steam with heightened global geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment. If there is further weakness in the US Dollar such as losing significant strength within disappointing US economic data, or trade tensions rise higher, the Yen might appreciate further. That would put pressure on the USD/JPY pair from its upper side, mainly when and if it breaks the important support levels. In contrast, the Yen

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Catches a Hold, Holding Steady Despite Hawkish BoJ Expectations and Tariff Concerns: Key Levels to Watch

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  • January 28, 2025
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The Japanese Yen has been failing near a daily low against the US Dollar. In early European trading, the USD/JPY pair reaches close to 156.00. Hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan help keep losses to JPY to some extent due to potential policy tightening and pay hikes support. Meanwhile, renewed US President Donald Trump tariff threats on the varied industries with US Treasury yields rebounding strengthen USD, and JPY is weakly positioned compared with the lower yielding ones. Markets look for guidance with the incoming US macro data along with two days of the FOMC Federal Reserve meet scheduled. USD/JPY charts are technically biased southward and, hence, this pair faces critical resistance in 156.00 and immediate support nearby 155.00. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, including continued rate hikes and policy adjustments, could be supportive of the Japanese Yen and limit its losses against the US Dollar. • Proposed tariffs by President Trump on key industries, including pharmaceuticals and metals, are likely to raise market volatility and impact USD/JPY movements through their influence on inflation and bond yields. • The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions during its two-day meeting will play a critical role in shaping the USD’s trajectory and the overall direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Key resistance around 156.00 and support near 155.00 will guide traders, with a break below 154.50 signaling potential further downside for the USD/JPY pair. The USD/JPY pair remains under focus as the Japanese Yen struggles near daily lows amid diverging monetary policies and global economic uncertainties. Hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan, including potential rate hikes and policy adjustments, help limit JPY losses despite modest USD strength fueled by rebounding US Treasury yields and President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on various industries. Market participants are eyeing key technical levels, with resistance around 156.00 and support near 155.00, while awaiting critical US macroeconomic data and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. These factors will likely determine the pair’s next directional move in the coming sessions. The USD/JPY pair hovers near daily lows as rebounding US Treasury yields and Trump’s tariff threats continue to bolster the USD, and hawkish BoJ expectations limit JPY losses. Market participants will watch for further cues from the outcome of the FOMC meeting. • Japanese Yen fails against US Dollar; pairs are seen nearing 156.00 on back of rebounding US Treasury yields and tariff threats by Trump. • This kind of sign by the Bank of Japan, including rate hikes and fostering wage growth, caps losses for JPY. • Fresh tariff threats by President Trump on pharmaceuticals and metals increase volatility in the market and make USD rise. • Traders are most likely to wait for cues from the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve to see what happens with USD and the overall market. • Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index will shed some light on US economic outlook • Resistance levels are located near 156.00, with the immediate support levels around 155.00 and a break below 154.50 would push the pair towards further losses • The pair is still under pressure due to differences in policy directions between BoJ and Fed along with global uncertainty. The USD/JPY pair remains close to daily lows. The Japanese currency is under considerable pressure against the greenback due to diverging monetary policies and surging global economic uncertainties. Positive support for the Yen comes through the hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan, which implies rate hikes or policy adjustments. However, the US Dollar holds firm as the Treasury yields begin to rebound and President Trump’s threat to impose fresh tariffs on pharmaceuticals and metals may reactivate inflationary forces. Traders are following these reports closely as they create market sentiment and push volatility for the currency pair USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Focus, meanwhile, would be on crucial US macro data, which is a mix of Durable Goods Orders, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Together, they may give clues as to the prospects of the US economy. This will also help determine the trend of the dollar as the Fed concludes its two-day FOMC meeting. On the technical side, resistance for USD/JPY is observed at 156.00, and immediate support is located around 155.00. A strong break below 154.50 would likely mean a continuation of the downside pressure, keeping traders alert for any directional guidance in the following sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is trading within a critical range. Resistance is located near the 156.00 level, which is also aligned with the trend-channel support breakpoint now turned into resistance. The next zone in concert with the supply from 156.60 to 156.70 might cap further movements upwards. Psychologically speaking, the zone between 155.00 on the downside should work as support with the next horizon zone situated from 154.55 down to 154.50, along with the zone for 154.00. Continued breakdown through such levels will definitely reinforce the view of further falling and bring further declines into 153.70 and beyond and potentially 153.30 and perhaps 153.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are showing negative traction and suggesting that USD/JPY’s path of least resistance in the short term could be lower. FORECAST The pair might have only limited upside to it as it gets close to some key resistances near 156.00 and the supply zone at 156.60-156.70. Drivers to the upside will include rebounding US Treasury yields and continued US Dollar strength, with President Trump’s tariff policies and inflationary pressures being the biggest culprits. Strong US economic data or a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve in the FOMC meeting also could fuel additional demand for USD, pushing the pair higher. However, these gains will likely be capped by the divergent policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The USD/JPY pair faces immediate support near the 155.00 psychological level, followed by critical zones at 154.55-154.50 and the 154.00 mark. A break below these

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