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USD/JPY Looks Up to 148 as Japanese Yen Weakens Due to Dismal Manufacturing PMI and BoJ-Fed Policy Divergence

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  • September 24, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to feel the pressure from a widely stronger US Dollar, with the USD/JPY currency pair standing at the threshold of the 148.00 level due to a disheartening Japan Manufacturing PMI figure. Domestic political angst and weak manufacturing figures have created concerns about delayed BoJ interest rate hikes, with expectations of additional Fed rate cuts continuing to prop up the USD. In spite of the Yen’s weak tone, safe-haven buying and policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed could cap big losses, holding the USD/JPY pair within a classic consolidation range before major US and Japanese economic releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • The latest reading of 48.4 points to the sharpest six-month contraction, keeping the Yen under pressure. • Investors closely observe for possible rate increases or dovish trends, particularly before the LDP leadership election on October 4. • Fed Chair Powell’s remarks about inflation and job preservation suggest fewer imminent rate cuts, favoring the US Dollar. • Major releases such as US New Home Sales, last GDP, PCE Price Index, and Tokyo CPI may shape USD/JPY direction in the short term. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure versus the US Dollar as poor manufacturing numbers and local political instability undermine market sentiment. Although the BoJ keeps the door open for rate increases, investor attention is pinned on the release of future economic data, ranging from the Tokyo CPI to US macro releases like GDP and PCE data. On the other hand, conflicting monetary policies—a dovish Fed forward guidance and prospective BoJ tightening—are maintaining the USD/JPY pair in a range, and the 148.00 level is being used as an important near-term resistance. Japanese Yen drops against the US Dollar on poor manufacturing figures and BoJ policy indecision. USD/JPY sticks around 148.00, with near-term action expected to be influenced by coming US and Japan economic indicators. Policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ could cap major Yen losses. • USD/JPY trades around 148.00 as the Japanese Yen weakens against a stronger US Dollar. • Japan Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in September, the quickest rate of contraction in six months. • Domestic political uncertainty leading up to the LDP leadership election may hold back BoJ rate hikes. • BoJ continues to keep policy normalization in mind despite recent economic weakness. • Fed Chair Powell’s comments indicate fewer near-term rate cuts, which are positive for USD demand. • Primary near-term data, such as US GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI, will have the potential to shape USD/JPY direction. • Technicals show resistance at 148.00–148.55 and support at 147.00–146.20 levels. The Japanese Yen continues to be pressured as poor manufacturing statistics and local political instability are creating overhang on the market mood. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4 in September, the steepest decline in six months, and yet another sign of stress for the Japanese economy. Investors are carefully monitoring the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, particularly the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election scheduled on October 4, which can affect the pace of future rate hikes. Although these remain concerns, market players still expect the BoJ to continue pursuing policy normalization if economic conditions are in accordance with its predictions. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView While that, the US Dollar finds support on hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy come later this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent words on striking a balance between inflation and jobs have further upheld guarded optimism for the USD, keeping investors on their toes for future US economic releases, such as New Home Sales, GDP, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Geopolitical tensions and safe-haven requirement also contribute to containing the losses of Yen, leading to a defensive market condition in which players are expecting new economic signals coming from Japan and the United States. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is in consolidation inside a well-known range since early August, creating a rectangle pattern that indicates the period of indecision. Near-term resistance is at the 148.00 round figure, followed closely by the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at its midpoint. Support comes in at mid-147.00s on the downside, with additional levels at 147.00 and 146.20. Neutral daily chart oscillators imply caution, and a sustained break above resistance or below support would be required to confirm a distinct near-term trend. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair is able to breach the resistance at 148.00, it may test the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day SMA as a major hurdle. A prolonged breach past this can pave the way towards the 149.00 level and possibly the monthly top around 149.15, particularly if US Dollar buying demand is boosted by hawkish economic news or risk-on mood in world markets. On the negative side, a fall below the mid-147.00s would have the pair probing support at 147.20, then 147.00. A further fall below here could drive losses towards 146.20, with further extension to 145.50–145.45, which is the lowest since early July. Dovish Fed cues, safe-haven interest, or softer-than-expected US economic data are likely to trigger yen strength.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Hardens as BoJ Policy Divergence and Positive Domestic Data Spur USD/JPY Near 148.00

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  • September 5, 2025
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The Japanese Yen hardens versus the US Dollar as positive domestic data and policy divergence with the Federal Reserve underpin its attractiveness. Japan’s real wages became positive for the first time in seven months, while household spending also indicated an increase, supporting prospects of further normalization in Bank of Japan policy direction. Meanwhile, market speculations about upcoming Fed rate reductions continue to bear down on the USD, pinning down USD/JPY around the 148.00 level. Trade sentiment, in the wake of the US reducing tariffs on Japanese auto imports, also weighs in favor of the Yen, and traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for better guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Strong wage growth and steady inflation above target fuel expectations of an imminent BoJ rate hike. • Markets widely anticipate at least two Fed rate cuts this year, weighing on the USD. • USD/JPY struggles near the 148.00 mark, with 147.40–146.70 seen as key supports and 148.75–149.20 as resistance zones. • The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial in shaping Fed policy expectations and near-term USD/JPY direction. Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar, buoyed by positive domestic news and policy divergence from the Federal Reserve. Japan’s real wages increased for the first time in seven months, accompanied by increased household expenditure, supporting hopes that the Bank of Japan will continue down its policy normalization process. In comparison, the USD continues to come under pressure as markets start to increasingly price in future Fed rate reductions. Contributing to the firmness of the Yen, trade optimism has firmed up after the US announced the reduction of tariffs on Japanese auto imports. With USD/JPY stalled around the 148.00 level, traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for new direction cues in the pair. Japanese Yen holds firm versus the US Dollar as solid domestic data and expectations of BoJ policy improve its prospects. On the other hand, USD is under pressure due to Fed rate cut expectations, keeping USD/JPY subdued near 148.00 levels before the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement. • Japanese Yen gets stronger as positive domestic data improves sentiment. •Japan’s real wages turn positive for the first time in seven months. • Household spending rises in July, reinforcing BoJ policy normalization expectations. • Inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target, supporting a hawkish outlook. • Fed rate cut bets keep the US Dollar under pressure. • US lowers tariffs on Japanese automobile imports, adding to trade optimism. • USD/JPY struggles near 148.00, with traders awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for direction. The Japanese Yen is finding support as new local data points to strength in the economy of Japan. Real wages finally became positive for the first time in seven months, indicating improving household buying power, with spending also showing growth, though below expectations. This reinforces the belief that the Bank of Japan will remain on its path of policy normalization, particularly with inflation remaining above 2% target. Meanwhile, trade sentiment got a boost after the United States dropped its plan to reduce tariffs on Japanese auto imports, easing a major source of worry for businesses and investors. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to find it tough to inspire a robust buying interest with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will soon initiate cutting borrowing costs. Markets are already discounting the likelihood of several rate cuts throughout the year, which has kept demand for USD in check. In this context, market participants are keenly awaiting the publication of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report to get an updated picture of US labor market health and Fed policy direction. The information will probably have a key part to play in determining near-term sentiment around the USD/JPY pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is under intense pressure as the pair fails to maintain itself above the 148.00 level, an important psychological and structural support level. Repeated inability to break through the 200-day Simple Moving Average, located around 148.75–148.80, indicates weak bullish momentum in the short term. A persistent break below 148.00 might open the way towards the 147.40–147.00 area, with further losses revealing the 146.20–146.00 area. On the other hand, a decisive break above the 149.20 resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop, might restore momentum in favor of buyers and clear the way for a move towards the 150.00 psychological level. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to stay above the 148.00 support and break above the 148.75–149.20 resistance area, the onus would shift back in favor of buyers. This would pave the way for a rally to the 150.00 psychological level, with the chances of further upmove towards the August swing high around 151.00. Stricter-than-anticipated US economic figures, especially those in the Nonfarm Payrolls report, might be the stimulus for this rally by momentarily lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a persistent decline below the 148.00 level would strengthen bearish momentum and initiate fresh selling pressure. This would enhance declines towards the 147.40 support level, and then further downwards towards the 147.00 and 146.70 levels. A decisive breach of 146.70 would reveal the 146.20–146.00 area, potentially triggering a more extensive corrective move. Poor US data or more robust hints of BoJ tightening would tend to be drivers towards this downside route.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Holds Firm Above 147.50 as Trump-Fed Spat Shrouds Market Mood

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  • August 26, 2025
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Ethereum shot to a record high of $4,868, its first in some three years, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium that signaled the potential for a potential rate cut. The leading altcoin has rallied over 100% since June, powered by $9 billion in ETF inflows, corporate treasury buys of nearly 3 million ETH, and heightened institutional demand. With growing regulatory assurance and favorable technical conditions, Ethereum now sights the $6,000 mark, supported by strong momentum and investor confidence. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market mood remains on edge to political news as tensions between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve intensify. • Investors look to the August CB Consumer Confidence report, potentially affecting near-term USD/JPY direction. • July’s 2.8% drop, while smaller than predicted, indicates weakening US demand. • Whether or not the pair can hold above 147.50 will be significant for a potential recovery, with a fall below 147.00 risking fresh selling pressure. USD/JPY fluctuated on Tuesday, dropping below 147.00 briefly before rebounding to trade above the 147.50 level as investors weighed political uncertainty against new economic data. The Trump-Fed feud, which had been ignited by Donald Trump’s claim that he had sacked Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move she stoutly denied, put pressure on the US Dollar to cap its advances. Meanwhile, July’s Durable Goods Orders declined 2.8%, lesser than anticipated, and assisted the dollar in gaining ground. Market attention now turns to the release of the CB Consumer Confidence report for August, which may furnish additional guidance for the pair in the short term. USD/JPY rallied back above 147.50 after it fell below 147.00, with markets considering political tensions and US economic reports. The Trump-Fed spat and lower Durable Goods Orders contributed to volatility, with traders now looking ahead to August’s CB Consumer Confidence for new directions. • USD/JPY bounced back above 147.50 after falling below 147.00 during the morning. • The pair continues to come under pressure despite Monday’s robust advances. • Donald Trump asserted that he fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which heightened political tension. • Lisa Cook dismissed Trump’s assertion that he can fire her. • Durable Goods Orders during July decreased 2.8%, lower than the expected 4% drop. • The USD gained some respite from improved-than-anticipated data. • Market attention will now be on August’s CB Consumer Confidence report and Trump-Fed news. The USD/JPY currency pair was subjected to fresh volatility on Tuesday as political theatrics overshadowed sentiment. Ex-U.S. President Donald Trump whipped up controversy after saying he fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, something that Cook strongly denied by way of her lawyers, stating Trump has no such powers. This strange confrontation between politics and monetary policy was rapidly taken up as a focus for investors, spreading uncertainty and constraining the U.S. Dollar’s momentum. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the guardedly optimistic tone, U.S. economic data was mixed. The Census Bureau said that Durable Goods Orders fell 2.8% in July, although the figure was higher than forecast. While the information provided some respite, market players now look to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August, in addition to any additional updates to the Trump-Fed spat, both of which should inform investor sentiment in the coming sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY’s bounce back through the 147.50 handle indicates that buyers are trying to take charge following Tuesday’s previous dip below 147.00. The 147.00 mark now serves as immediate support, while a continuous hold above 147.50 could set the stage for 148.00 resistance. To the downside, a dip below 147.00 could stimulate fresh selling pressure, with the 146.50 area serving as the next major support area. Momentum indicators show cautious trading, with confirmation from the next batch of U.S. data before a definitive trend is established. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to hold on to its recovery over 147.50, the pair can carry gains towards the psychological 148.00 level. Better-than-anticipated CB Consumer Confidence figures or declining political uncertainty can offer the U.S. Dollar extra support. A clear break above 148.00 is set to open doors for more upside, with investors targeting higher levels of resistance in upcoming sessions. Conversely, if fresh selling pressure arises, a fall below 147.00 may initiate a more extensive correction. Further political unrest linked to the Trump-Fed feud or softer U.S. data can pressure the dollar, taking USD/JPY down into the 146.50 support area. A move below this level for an extended period may indicate a change in sentiment, leaving the pair vulnerable to more downside risks.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Flat as BoJ Hawkishness Confronts Fed Rate Cut Projections

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  • August 5, 2025
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Japanese Yen remained unchanged against the US Dollar on Tuesday, while hawkish indications from the Bank of Japan and a higher revision in Japan’s Services PMI offered foundational support for the currency. Nevertheless, political uncertainties within Japan and a generally optimistic market mood muted safe-haven demand for the Yen. In the meantime, the US Dollar struggled to push gains as expectations of a September Fed rate cut increased, particularly after softer US job data and political pressure on the Federal Reserve. The USD/JPY pair floated above the 147.00 level, with investors looking to the upcoming US ISM Services PMI and FOMC comments for new direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • June BoJ meeting minutes reiterated the potential for a year-end rate hike, keeping the JPY bears on their toes. • More than 80% chance of a September Fed rate cut continues to pressure the US Dollar. • The recent election defeat of the ruling party has raised some concerns about fiscal policy, potentially hampering BoJ tightening. • The attention of the market now turns to the US ISM Services PMI and comments from Federal Reserve officials for short-term USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen continued to trade range-bound versus the US Dollar on Tuesday, as market participants weighed hawkish cues from the Bank of Japan with increasing bets on a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Though optimistic domestic data and BoJ’s renewed pledge to policy tightening provided support to the Yen, fears about Japan’s political situation and rising global risk appetite capped its upside. Conversely, the US Dollar received modest support from bond yields but failed to achieve significant traction with softer labor market data as well as political meddling with Fed policy. The market now waits for US ISM Services PMI and FOMC commentary for additional clarity regarding the USD/JPY direction. Japanese Yen remains flat in response to BoJ’s hawkish stance and better domestic data. But political instability in Japan and anticipation of a Fed rate cut limit large USD/JPY movements. Markets wait for US ISM Services PMI and Fed commentary for short-term direction. • June Bank of Japan meeting minutes reinforced the probability of a rate increase in case inflation and growth conform to expectations. • July Services PMI for Japan was 53.6, the highest growth since February. • The election loss of the ruling party impacts the fiscal stability, which may slow BoJ’s tightening trajectory. • Political pressure on the Fed and weak US job statistics drive the rate cut expectation in September. • The currency pair is unchanged on mild USD buying and positive sentiment in the market. • Improved equities in Asia lower the demand for the Yen as a safe-haven currency. • The US ISM Services PMI and FOMC member remarks are the key to short-run USD/JPY action. The Japanese Yen was unchanged against the US Dollar on Tuesday as investors balanced conflicting economic and political indications from Japan and the US. Bank of Japan meeting minutes in June confirmed year-end rate hike expectations, particularly with Japan’s Services PMI experiencing its fastest growth in months. These events gave some respite to the Yen. Political uncertainty due to the poor performance of the ruling party in recent election results has questioned the fiscal future of the country as well as the policy direction of the BoJ, keeping sharp bullish momentum for the Yen in check. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar received faint support from a generally positive risk mood and optimistic market sentiment, but is increasingly coming under pressure as a result of rising bets for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Recent US employment data, coupled with political actions targeting the Fed’s autonomy, have contributed to such expectations. Traders are cautious ahead of some significant US data releases, such as the ISM Services PMI, as well as future speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which would influence near-term market mood and set direction for the USD/JPY cross. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY cross has demonstrated strength above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July rally, maintaining support above the 147.00 level. Closest resistance is around the 147.35 level, then the 147.75 area and the 148.00 psychological level, which also happens to be the 38.2% retracement level. A break and hold above this area has the potential to solidify a near-term low and continue to support the bullish thesis. To the detriment, there’s initial support at 146.85, and a break below 146.60 on a decisive note could gain further downwards momentum to 146.00 and even to the 145.85 area, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci mark. Neutrality of oscillators on the daily chart advises caution, with no robust momentum either way currently. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair can remain above the 147.00 level and break through the near-term resistance at 147.35, it would set the stage for additional advancement. A continued break above the 147.75 area and the 148.00 psychological level would signal fresh bullish energy, and prices might head to 148.50 or even beyond. This bullish scenario would be sustained by any hawkish surprise comments by Fed officials or better-than-anticipated US economic data, which will temporarily counter the overall rate cut expectations. On the negative side, inability to stay above 146.85 will leave the pair vulnerable to further selling pressure. A breakdown below the 146.60 support could provokes a steeper decline to the 146.00 area, and then to the 145.85 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally. This bearish scenario may unfold if future US data slows or if political realities in the US further erode confidence in the Fed’s independence, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Recover From One-Week Low Against USD, But Gains Capped Despite Mixed Signs

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  • July 28, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) recovered mildly from a one-week low against the US Dollar (USD) at the beginning of the new week following a recent trade agreement between Japan and the US that suggests a possible Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike later this year. Yet the JPY’s upside seems limited with the softening of inflation in Tokyo, increased domestic political risk, and a general risk-on market mood due to better global trade sentiment. In the meantime, investors tread carefully before crucial central bank decisions from the Fed and BoJ, as well as high-impact US economic releases, all of which could heavily impact the USD/JPY pair’s next major move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders wait for this week’s announcements by the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve policy for guidance on upcoming interest rate moves, which should significantly impact the USD/JPY cross. • This week’s major US releases such as Q2 GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls might lead to USD/JPY volatility. • Heightening domestic political uncertainty after the recent election loss of the ruling coalition might hold back any tightening action by the BoJ, softening the JPY. • Break above 148.65 might extend to the 149.00 level, while below 147.00 and support thereabouts may provide buying opportunities for the traders. The Japanese Yen began the week with a gentle correction from its recent one-week low versus the US Dollar, underpinned partly by optimism over a trade agreement between Japan and the US, reviving speculation about a possible Bank of Japan rate increase later this year. Nevertheless, the currency’s upside is capped on mixed fundamentals such as weakening inflation in Tokyo, domestic political uncertainty, and better global risk appetite that is shrinking safe-haven demand. Traders are walking on eggshells in anticipation of pivotal central bank decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the BoJ, as well as the all-important US economic data releases, all of which are likely to figure in the next major move for the USD/JPY currency pair. Japanese Yen creeps up from one-week low against the US Dollar but is capped on upside by mixed economic cues and risk-on sentiment in the market. Market participants are cautious ahead of this week’s big central bank announcements and top US data releases. • JPY recovers modestly from one-week low against the USD, buoyed by expectations of a possible BoJ rate increase later in the year. • Mildly subdued USD price movement and Japan’s US trade agreement are among the factors helping the Yen recover intra-day. • Risk-on sentiment fueled by US–EU as well as US–China trade optimism caps safe-haven demand for the Yen. • Softening Tokyo inflation and Japanese political turbulence function as headwinds for JPY strength. • USD/JPY above 148.00, technicals hinting at a potential retest of 148.65–149.00 levels. • Critical support levels are at 147.65, 147.00, and 146.55, with the risk of further losses limited near 145.00. • Traders wait for updates from Fed and BoJ policy and US GDP, PCE, and NFP data to lead future direction. The Japanese Yen started the week on an upbeat note with moderate gains as market mood improved on news of a recent trade pact between Japan and the United States. This transaction revived hopes of the Bank of Japan resuming policy tightening during the latter half of this year, providing some support to the currency. However, more general market conditions are unclear, with investors weighing hope regarding global trade developments against domestic issues within Japan. Specifically, political uncertainty following a severe election setback for the ruling coalition has created skepticism regarding BoJ policy flexibility over the near term. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar approaches the week with a note of caution as the market waits for several high-impact events. Optimism surrounding the resumption of US–China talks and advancement in US–EU trade negotiations has pushed risk appetite higher, while the demand for safe-haven assets such as the Yen has fallen. Investors are in a wait-and-watch mode, waiting for significant policy announcements by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, as well as a series of significant US economic data announcements that are likely to determine the direction in which the market is headed next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair indicates a bullish inclination, breaking above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and holding on to gains beyond the 148.00 level. Bullish momentum indicators on both daily and hourly charts favor further upside potential, with the next significant resistance at the 148.65 zone, last week’s high. A clean break above this could provide the way to challenge the psychological 149.00 level. On the negative side, nearest support is around the 147.70–147.65 area, which is supported by the 100-hour SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with further support around 147.00 and the 146.55 area. FORECAST If bullish pressure persists, the USD/JPY currency pair may experience further gains, particularly if the Federal Reserve remains hawkish in its policy statement or if US economic news surprises to the upside. Any sustained break above the resistance point at 148.65 would potentially lead to a new rally towards the psychological 149.00 level. Improved optimism regarding global trade, combined with stable US Treasury yields, could also continue supporting the pair higher. On the other hand, any dovish communication by the Federal Reserve or a dovish shift by the Bank of Japan would set off a pullback in USD/JPY. A fall below the crucial support area of 147.65–147.70 would expose the pair to additional drops towards 147.00 and even to the 146.55 level. A sudden decline in risk appetite or surprise weakening in future US macro data may also stimulate fresh demand for safe-haven Yen, hammering the pair down.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Grinds Higher with US Dollar Rebound and Escalating Tariff Tensions with Japan

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  • July 2, 2025
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USD/JPY currency pair traded slightly higher on Wednesday, aided by a modest US Dollar rebound even as a softer-than-expected ADP jobs report presented surprise June job losses. The Greenback stabilized as markets became wary of the imminent Nonfarm Payrolls release and absorbed Fed Chair Powell’s cautious words. Simultaneously, rising trade tensions between Japan and the US put additional pressure on the Japanese Yen, with threatened tariffs from former President Trump and staunch opposition from Tokyo increasing uncertainty. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda played it safe, emphasizing the requirement of inflation alignment prior to any policy changes. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets are waiting for clearer indications regarding US labor market strength and possible Fed rate cuts. • Increasing tensions and hawkish postures before the July 9 deadline could influence JPY volatility. • Governor Ueda’s cautious tone supports expectations of slow and modest tightening. • In spite of soft ADP numbers, the rebound in the USD Index indicates that investors have not yet priced in aggressive dovish pivots. The USD/JPY pair made small gains as the US Dollar recovered from its sharp losses at the start of the week after a disappointing ADP employment report indicated surprise job losses in June. Though the data fueled speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, investor sentiment was subdued, and focus is now shifting to the coming Nonfarm Payrolls for firmer direction. Simultaneously, rising trade tensions between Japan and the US put more pressure on the Yen as both countries take harder stances before a high-stakes tariff negotiation deadline. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan stood pat on its wait-and-see stance, solidifying expectations of incremental policy normalization. USD/JPY is trading slightly higher after the US Dollar steadies against weak ADP data. Surching US-Japan trade tensions and dovish BoJ policy tone are keeping the Japanese Yen under pressure. Markets now look towards the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls report for further cues. • USD/JPY is trading around 143.75, having recovered slightly after touching a three-week low. • US Dollar bounces back marginally despite ADP reporting a surprise loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June. • Wage growth holds steady, maintaining the Fed’s policy framework in mind prior to the NFP release. • US Dollar Index (DXY) increases 0.25%, rebounding from its lowest level since February 2022. • Trade tensions intensify as the US and Japan dig in ahead of the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. • Former President Trump threatens up to 35% tariffs on Japanese imports, boosting market uncertainty. • BoJ Governor Ueda remains guarded, indicating no near-term rate moves while watching inflation developments. The USD/JPY exchange rate also captured wider market sentiment as investors absorbed important economic news and geopolitical events. The surprising drop in US private-sector hiring, as marked by the ADP report, added new worries about the extent of labor market deceleration. While wage increases continued to hold steady, the job losses have stoked expectations for possible monetary policy reduction by the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, traders are still wary of the more conclusive Nonfarm Payrolls data, which will best illuminate the economic picture and the Fed’s next step. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Internationally, heightened tensions between the United States and Japan in recent times due to trade negotiations have created an extra layer of uncertainty. As the July 9 deadline draws near, neither side seems keen on making concessions, particularly in areas such as tariffs on Japanese exports and safeguarding domestic industries. Former President Trump’s assertive language has put pressure on Japan, while Prime Minister Ishiba has stuck to his guns in protecting national interests. These events have attracted the attention of international investors, who are monitoring closely for signs of further escalation that would influence economic relations and currency movements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is trying to make a minor rebound after finding support at around the 143.00 area, a level which concides with recent lows. The pair touched an intraday high around 144.25 briefly but was unable to sustain the momentum, indicating possible resistance at that area. A prolonged break above 144.25 would then pave the way towards the 145.00 psychological level, while a loss of holding above 143.00 would result in fresh bearish pressure. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD are still in a neutral to slightly positive stance, mirroring the pair’s measured recovery amidst a larger-scale consolidation phase. FORECAST If future US economic releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls report, indicate job growth resilience and stable wages, the US Dollar may strengthen further. Such a move should propel USD/JPY upwards, especially if sentiment turns away from near-term Fed rate cuts. Breaking the 144.25 resistance level may push the pair to test the 145.00 level, with further upside possibly seen in the 146.50 zone if buying pressure gathers momentum. On the negative side, though, if the NFP report does validate labor market softness or sets off heightened expectations of near-term Fed easing, the US Dollar could again face selling pressure. In such a case, USD/JPY would likely decline back towards the 143.00 support level, and a penetration through this could expose the pair to further losses down to 141.80 or even the psychologically significant 140.00 level. Furthermore, rising US-Japan trade tensions could also serve to drive up demand for safe-haven Yen, putting downward pressure on the pair.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Stregnths as Diverging BoJ-Fed Policies Pressure USD/JPY Towards 145.00

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  • June 24, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues gaining against a declining US Dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair towards the 145.00 level amid increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). As the BoJ is set to raise rates again on the back of lingering inflation and robust domestic data, the Fed is more and more intimating future rate reductions, perhaps beginning in July. This dichotomy has taken a heavy toll on the USD, making the lower-yielding JPY more attractive. Further uplift for the Yen is also provided by hopes of a possible US-Japan trade agreement and continued safe-haven demand in the face of geopolitical events, such as a tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing expectations of Bank of Japan rate hikes against possible Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on USD/JPY. • Market sentiment would change depending on the result of ministerial-level negotiations on or about June 26, which could have implications for trade flows and the strength of the JPY. • Jerome Powell’s testimonial before Congress, as well as other speeches from FOMC officials, will be eyed for hints on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory in the next few months. • Traders will be watching if the pair falls convincingly below the 145.00 psychological level support, which could fuel more bearish momentum. The Japanese Yen is holding steady against the US Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair hovering near the crucial 145.00 support level as markets respond to differing monetary policy expectations. Expectations of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates in the face of persistent inflation and better economic data stand sharply contrasted with increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, potentially as early as July. This divergence still undermines the USD and props up the JPY. Further fueling the Yen’s popularity are hopes for an imminent US-Japan trade deal and ongoing safe-haven appetite, in spite of worldwide geopolitical shifts. Japanese Yen extends gains against a weaker US Dollar, pushing USD/JPY toward the 145.00 level. Divergent BoJ-Fed rate expectations and safe-haven buying continue to underpin the Yen. Traders now look to important US data and Powell’s testimony for direction. •  The Japanese Yen advances sharply, pulling USD/JPY towards the 145.00 psychological level. •  BoJ will likely raise rates further, while the Fed is inclined to cut rates, perhaps as early as July. •  Japanese core inflation at or above the 2% target keeps the argument for tighter monetary policy alive. •  Upbeat Japanese PMI data enhance optimism over the outlook in Japan. •  Conflicting US PMIs and soft Fed rhetoric put pressure on the US Dollar. •  Expectations of a US-Japan free trade agreement before the July 9 deadline to impose tariffs add strength to the Yen. •  USD/JPY looks to break below the 145.00 level; resistance is observed around 146.00 and 147.00 levels. The Japanese Yen draws robust demand as investors react to a changing global monetary environment. With Japan’s underlying inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target for more than three years and recent PMI readings registering strength, markets are growing optimistic that the Bank of Japan can go ahead with further rate hikes. In contrast to the U.S., where uneven economic data and weakening labor forecasts have encouraged Federal Reserve policymakers to begin reducing the central bank’s stimulative monetary policy in the near term. Such divergence in central bank policies is sending investors to the Yen, which appears to be a safe and more appealing currency in the face of current conditions. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On top of the Yen’s strength is rising optimism of a US-Japan trade deal, as Japan’s Economy Minister plans high-level talks with U.S. officials. The fact that these talks come early, prior to an imminent tariff deadline, indicates an active attempt to put trade tensions on the backburner, viewed favorably by the market. Additionally, the Japanese Yen has not been significantly impacted by recent geopolitical events, such as a reported Israel-Iran ceasefire, further solidifying its safe-haven status. All of these combined point to a robust fundamental foundation for the Yen moving forward. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has fallen below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) to indicate short-term bearish pressure. Yet, the fall has come to an impasse around the 145.40 zone, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward move, and hence, a critical support zone to monitor. A clean break below this zone would set the stage for a drop to the 145.00 psychological level, which might unleash further bearish momentum. On the plus side, resistance is evident at 146.00 supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and a move above it would switch attention to 147.00–147.45. Interim mixed signals from momentum indicators imply that traders will be awaiting confirmation before entering strong directional positions. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair holds above the 145.00 level of support and resumes its uptrend, a short-term rebound can send the pair as high as the 146.00 resistance area, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A decisive breakout above this resistance may pave the way for additional gains towards 146.70–146.75 and possibly even to the 147.40–147.45 region. Continued buying interest above these levels might take the pair to the 148.00 psychological mark and the May peak around 148.65. Conversely, a convincing breakdown below the 145.00 psychological level might strengthen the bearish outlook and provoke fresh selling. This could propel the pair into a more pronounced correction towards the 144.50 support level, then 144.00. If downside pressure persists, the next significant target may be 143.30–143.00, which are former consolidation areas. The overall trend may become increasingly biased towards sellers if fundamentals and sentiment remain in favor of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains Strength on BoJ Rate Hike Speculations and International Safe-Haven Demand

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  • May 22, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained significantly, touching a two-week high relative to the US Dollar (USD), as a result of a mix of bullish domestic and international drivers. Optimistic Japanese Machinery Orders data has raised hopes of Japan’s economic turnaround and speculation regarding additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, fresh safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions and fear of the US fiscal prospects has contributed to the Yen’s popularity. Poorer-than-expected US economic reports, hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and political uncertainty over President Trump’s tax bill have also pushed down the USD, further supporting the bearish leaning of the USD/JPY pair. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Monitor any new comments or policy changes from the Bank of Japan, particularly on interest rate rises, as ongoing monetary tightening may foster further JPY appreciation. • The main indicators like Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and coming PMIs will be instrumental in assessing the well-being of the US economy and determining USD direction. • Persistent tensions in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as US-China trade tension, can drive safe-haven flows into JPY, supporting downside pressure on USD/JPY. • Strong technical support is at 143.20 and 142.35, with resistance around 145.00–145.40. RSI close to the oversold zone on shorter timeframes indicates potential for near-term consolidation or a small bounce before the next move. Markets should keep a close eye on major events influencing the USD/JPY pair, as various factors still determine its short-term course. The hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan, fueled by robust domestic indicators such as the recent Machinery Orders jump, is likely to create room for additional interest rate increases, which would strengthen the Yen. Geopolitical tensions and global economic instability are also expected to continue driving demand for the safe-haven JPY. In contrast, the US Dollar remains under pressure amid weak macroeconomic data, fiscal concerns linked to President Trump’s proposed tax bill, and growing speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts. Technically, the pair faces strong resistance near 145.00–145.40, while a break below 143.20 could trigger deeper losses, making upcoming US data and global sentiment key factors to watch. The Japanese Yen is still underpinned by robust domestic data, BoJ rate hike prospects, and haven demand. On the other hand, USD/JPY is threatened by a soft US Dollar due to fiscal worries and Fed rate cut predictions. The next move will be led by key levels and future economic releases. •  The Japanese Yen touched a two-week high due to robust domestic fundamentals as well as haven inflows. • Japan’s Core Machinery Orders increased 13% in March, beating forecasts and reinforcing economic optimism. • Positive news reinforces speculation that the Bank of Japan will keep hiking interest rates. • The US Dollar continues to be pressured by fiscal worries and Federal Reserve rate-cutting expectations. • Ukraine and Gaza conflict and US-China trade tension fuel safe-haven flows into JPY. • Major resistance is at 145.00–145.40, with a break below 143.20 having potential to propel USD/JPY to further downside. • Investors should monitor US jobless claims, housing sales, and PMIs for new direction in USD/JPY. Japanese Yen continues to benefit from a mix of favorable domestic news and increased global uncertainty. Recent statistics indicating a steep rise in Japan’s Core Machinery Orders have brightened optimism about the nation’s economic revival, supporting belief that the Bank of Japan might continue with additional interest rate increases. This represents a major change from Japan’s history of ultra-loose monetary policy and indicates strengthening faith in homegrown demand and inflation stability. Moreover, hopes of increasing wages and consumer consumption are underpinning the wider picture for continued growth in Japan. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Globally, the Yen is also enjoying its habitual safe-haven status with increased geopolitical tensions and fears about the US fiscal condition. The recent US tax bill, which would substantially increase the federal deficit, has created investor concern about the long-term economic soundness of the country. Concurrently, persistent tensions in the likes of Ukraine and the Middle East, and reviving trade tensions between the US and China, are contributing to market volatility. These events are forcing investors to turn to safe assets, and the Yen has been the favored pick in uncertain times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating bearish momentum, with current price action having difficulty maintaining any serious recovery. The duo has been facing resistance in the 144.40 area, which is a significant retracement level as well as the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and indicates sustained selling interest at higher prices. Oscillators on the daily chart are starting to turn bearish, indicating an increasing downside bias. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on smaller timeframes is moving towards oversold levels, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation or corrective bounce. A clear violation of the 143.20 support level would set off selling pressure, exposing levels of 142.35 and further beyond to the 142.00 psychological level. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above significant support points and sentiment surrounding the US economy turns positive, there’s scope for a short-term recovery. A welcome surprise in future US economic reports, for example, jobless claims or housing numbers, may provide short-term relief for the US Dollar. Then the pair may try to retest the 145.00 psychological level. A persistent break above here may set the stage for a rise up to the 145.35–145.40 resistance area, provided investor sentiment becomes bullish on riskier assets and the Federal Reserve dials back its dovish tone. Conversely, further US Dollar weakness on the back of fiscal worries, dovish Fed hopes, or weak macroeconomic data may keep piling pressure on USD/JPY. When the pair falls below the 143.20 mark, which is a key Fibonacci support, it could unleash heavy technical selling. This would project the fall further to 142.35 and even to the 142.00 area. Additional geopolitical tensions or robust Japanese numbers might support the safe-haven demand for the Yen, extending the move lower in the next sessions.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Rally Extends Amid US-China Trade Deal Hopes and Fed’s Hawkish Tone, Targeting 145.00 Level

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  • May 8, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to come under pressure due to hopes over a US-China trade deal and the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve driving the USD/JPY pair higher, with the pair near the 145.00 level. In spite of the Fed’s rate pause cues, the USD remains supported by the continued hopes for trade deals fueled by US President Trump’s statement about the announcement of a big deal. While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) provides cues about prospective interest rate increases in 2025, the global economic risks, especially about the US tariffs, may cap firmer JPY losses. Technical indicators are indicating further upside in USD/JPY, with levels to keep an eye on at 144.00 and 145.00. KEY LOOKOUTS • The USD/JPY currency pair is moving up as a result of optimism over a US-China trade agreement and the Federal Reserve’s policy of maintaining rates unchanged, which indicates support for the US Dollar. • The minutes of the BoJ indicate possible future interest rate increases in 2025, although global uncertainty and economic unpredictability will constrain the Japanese Yen’s losses. • President Trump’s statements on a significant trade deal announcement also increase investor optimism in the US Dollar, supporting JPY’s underperformance as a safe-haven currency. • The duo is set to test the 145.00 psychological level, with major technical resistance at 144.00 and support levels near 143.40, which affect market mood and price action. USD/JPY pair maintains its rally, supported by a mix of US trade agreement optimism and the hawkish bias of the Federal Reserve, which supports US Dollar confidence. President Trump’s recent remarks over a big announcement of a trade deal have even further added fuel to anticipation, boosting the USD against the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan has even threatened to hike interest rates in 2025 but with worldwide economic uncertainties surrounding the tariffs imposed by the US having checked the ascent of the Yen. Consequently, the duo is getting close to the 145.00 level, with technical charts indicating that resistance at 144.00 and support at 143.40 will be the key determinants of the next direction. USD/JPY pair keeps on moving upwards, fueled by US trade deal optimism and a dovish Fed attitude. Although the Bank of Japan hints at future rate rises later in 2025, global uncertainties continue to put pressure on the Japanese Yen, taking the pair towards the 145.00 level. •  Optimism over US-China trade discussions increases investor confidence, favoring the US Dollar relative to the Japanese Yen. • The Fed’s hold on interest rates has supported the US Dollar, which has helped its strength against safe-haven currencies such as the Yen. • In spite of worldwide economic uncertainty, the Bank of Japan indicates that it can increase interest rates in 2025, curbing further losses for the Yen. • President Trump’s words regarding a significant trade deal announcement later today further support USD sentiment, pressuring the Yen. • Continuous uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and geopolitical unrest, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis, dents the safe-haven value of the Yen. • The pair is close to crucial resistance at 145.00, with levels of support at 143.40 and 143.00 probably shaping subsequent price action. • Traders expect President Trump’s press conference to offer fresh cues on the course of US trade policy and impact the overall market mood. USD/JPY currency pair is picking up speed, spurred on by increasing hope surrounding US-China trade negotiations and the recent dovish tilt in Federal Reserve monetary policy. Supportive comments by President Trump on a big trade deal announcement due later today again boosted confidence in the US Dollar, as global economic volatility remains a source of concern that keeps the Japanese Yen on the back foot. The expectation of a possible US trade agreement and the Fed’s choice to wait before lowering rates have helped push the US Dollar higher, which has undermined the safe-haven status of the Yen. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also cautious but indicates that it might hike interest rates in 2025 if inflationary trends persist. In spite of these possible plans to tighten, the BoJ remains wary of global economic uncertainty, notably regarding US trade policy. Consequently, the potential for the Yen to recover is subdued, notably as the US Dollar remains buoyed by optimism over trade deals and general market sentiment. Traders are following events closely, which influence the current direction in USD/JPY. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is now probing major resistance levels near the 144.00 level, and has the potential to move past 145.00, which is a psychological level. The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is still a key metric to monitor, as it has acted as a resistance level in the past. If the pair is able to break above 144.30, it may lead to a rally up to the 145.00 level and further to 146.00. On the other hand, the immediate support areas are around 143.40-143.35, and a break below these levels would likely send the pair to the 142.35-142.00 region. These technical considerations, in addition to overall market sentiment, will most probably dictate the near-term direction of USD/JPY. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is expected to continue its bullish trend, particularly if the pair successfully crossed the 144.30 resistance level. A prolonged movement above this level may set the stage towards the psychological 145.00 level, a key level to watch for traders. If the US Dollar continues to be strong on sustained optimism regarding US trade agreements and the hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve, USD/JPY may continue its rally, possibly testing levels around 146.00 in the near future. Momentum indicators also indicate that if the pair continues to be bullish, it may move higher, driven by investor optimism regarding the US economy and declining global risk concerns. Conversely, if the pair is rejected around the 144.00-144.30 levels and cannot stay above these levels, a corrective retrace might ensue. Levels of support around 143.40-143.35 are

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Resists Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Hike Bets; USD/JPY Fails Below 140

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  • April 22, 2025
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The Japanese Yen strengthened against the US Dollar on Tuesday, fueled by safe-haven demand due to ongoing global trade tensions and increasingly expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike later in 2025. The USD/JPY pair tried to bounce off levels below 140, the bullish bias on the Yen intact as geopolitical uncertainty and differential monetary policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed continue to place pressure on the Dollar. Market sentiment was further rattled by concerns over the Fed’s independence following fresh criticism from former President Donald Trump, keeping USD gains limited. Investors now await key US economic data and global PMI releases for clearer market direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again in 2025 is expected to keep the Japanese Yen supported in the near term. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, stoked by political pressure and rate cut speculation in the markets, continues to influence the US Dollar. • Investors are monitoring progress in the latest US-Japan tariff negotiations, particularly comments by influential officials and possible implications for currency flows. • The Richmond Manufacturing Index and world flash PMIs should deliver new insights into economic well-being, driving near-term USD/JPY price action. Japanese Yen remains in focus as investors weigh safe-haven demand against shifting central bank policies and global trade tensions. Despite a modest intraday pullback, the Yen’s strength is underpinned by rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in 2025, marking a significant divergence from the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate-cutting path. While this, in turn, is being affected by political uncertainty in the U.S. — fueled by renewed skepticism about the independence of the Fed and continuing trade negotiations — the recovery of the Dollar remains curbed. The market now expects major U.S. economic releases and world PMI reading, which should provide clearer guidance for the USD/JPY pair in upcoming sessions. Japanese Yen remains strong as safe-haven demand and expectations of BoJ rate hikes provide support against a softer US Dollar. Uncertainty surrounding US-Japan trade talks and skepticism regarding the Fed’s policy framework remain weighing factors on sentiment. Investors now look to leading economic indicators for new direction on USD/JPY action. • The Yen remains in demand with global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty capping its losses versus the US Dollar. • Speculation in the markets for a Bank of Japan rate increase in 2025 is contributing to the bullishness in the Yen. • The pair rebounded more than 40 pips from around the pivotal 140.00 psychological level but failed to maintain firmness amidst bearish sentiment in the USD. • New political attacks on the Federal Reserve, such as threats against its autonomy, have maintained the Dollar on defensive levels close to multi-year lows. •  Japanese and American official quotes underpin the subtlety in current tariff negotiations, holding back investors. •  USD/JPY encounters strong resistance at 141.65-141.60 and has the vital support zones at 140.45 and 140.00. •  Upcoming events such as Richmond Manufacturing Index and global flash PMIs are to determine USD/JPY’s next decisive movement. Japanese Yen continues to find support in its safe-haven demand, with continuing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks holding investor sentiment in check. Market observers continue to be focused on the status of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, especially after Japanese officials noted the intricacy involved in securing an agreement given touchy topics such as tariffs on autos and agriculture. As the talks proceed, the Yen will probably continue to be a favored destination for investors seeking stability amid uncertain times. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Substantiating the Yen’s support is also the increasing market perception that the Bank of Japan might hike interest rates in 2025, a significant reversal after years of extremely accommodative monetary policy. Conversely, the U.S. Dollar is under siege as political uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and conflicting economic signals create doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. This policy difference between the United States and Japan remains to influence currency market dynamics and reflects the cautious sentiment among traders. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair indicates signs of stabilization following a bounce back from the sub-140.00 psychological level, which has now become a significant support point. The 140.45 area, where the pair had recently established a multi-month low, is likely to provide initial downside cushioning. But the general bearish tone is still in place as far as the pair remains below the 141.60–141.65 resistance area — an important horizontal level that had served as support. A break above this region on a sustained basis may initiate a short-covering rally, paving the way for additional advances to the 142.00 and 142.35 resistance areas. To its detriment, a break below 140.45 could leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, potentially testing the yearly swing low around the 139.60–139.55 area. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 140.45 support level and accumulates sufficient bullish strength, it may try to retest the immediate resistance in the 141.60–141.65 area. A decisive break and sustained strength above this area can pave the way for a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the psychological 142.00 mark. Additional bullish extension may drive the pair to test the next major hurdle around the 142.35–142.40 area, where sellers are likely to reappear. Conversely, however, if the USD/JPY pair is unable to hold its ground above the 140.45 level, bear pressure may strengthen, pulling the pair back towards the important 140.00 psychological level. A clean break beneath this support level would most probably speed up the downside move, targeting the 2024 yearly swing low at the 139.60–139.55 region. A break below this level may warn of a deeper bear trend and possibly trigger further selling in the near term.

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