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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Dovish Before BoJ Speech Despite Weaker Domestic Figures and USD Recuperation

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  • March 19, 2025
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The Japanese Yen continues to dip after the Bank of Japan announced that it maintained interest rates levels and weaker than anticipated domestic economic data, which include weak machinery orders and unfavorable business sentiment. Although Japan’s trade balance showed improvement and wage growth prospects remain strong, investors remain cautious ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech for clues on future monetary policy moves. Meanwhile, a modest recovery in the US Dollar from a multi-month low has pushed USD/JPY above mid-149.00s, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. Yet, market players wait for significant cues from the BoJ as well as the next FOMC meeting before taking bold directional wagers. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players wait for Ueda’s words for definite indications of future rate hikes and the central bank’s policy direction in the near future. • The 150.00 psychological level continues to be a crucial resistance; a consistent breakout would set off new bullish momentum towards 150.75–151.00 levels. • Deteriorating machinery orders and weakening business sentiment remain in focus for JPY, while trade balance has improved and wages have firmed up. • Attention turns towards the US Federal Reserve policy move, which could have a bearing on USD strength and overall USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen also remains on the weaker side as markets absorb the Bank of Japan’s move to leave interest rates unchanged and lower-than-anticipated domestic data such as disappointing machinery orders and falling business sentiment. Although a tighter trade balance and improving wage deals provide some respite to Japan’s economic prospects, investor sentiment continues to be risk-off ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech, where he is set to give a clue on when rate hikes can be expected. On the other hand, a slight rally in the US Dollar has driven USD/JPY past mid-149.00s, and technical readings are indicating possible additional upside if the pair successfully crosses the 150.00 resistance mark. All eyes now focus on the result of the FOMC meeting, which will potentially mold the path for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen continues to be weak in the face of weak domestic data and the BoJ’s continued rate stance. Now, the markets are waiting for Governor Ueda’s speech and the FOMC result for more direction. A breach above the level of 150.00 may ignite fresh upside in USD/JPY. • The Japanese Yen stays low following the Bank of Japan maintaining its interest rate unchanged at its latest policy meeting. • Sluggish domestic data, such as declining machinery orders and declining business sentiment, weighed on the JPY. • Japan’s trade balance turned positive, driven by robust exports and lower imports. • USD/JPY pushed beyond mid-149.00s on the back of a modest rebound in the US Dollar from a multi-month low. • The resistance in the USD/JPY technicals stands at 150.00, and a clear breakout would encourage additional upside into the 150.75–151.00 zone. • Highly expected are comments from BoJ Governor Ueda for a pointer towards additional interest rate hike cycles and a monetary policy cue. • Markets eagerly await the outcome of the FOMC meeting, as this will drive the next decision in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen is still under pressure after the Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate target unchanged. The action was taken as concerns over Japan’s economic prospects have been increasing, with recent figures indicating a fall in machinery orders and a decline in business sentiment among manufacturers. While the trade balance of the country improved as exports grew and imports decreased, these encouraging trends were dampened by general economic uncertainty. The central bank also admitted that economic growth and inflation risks are still high, making investors hesitant to anticipate the timing of any subsequent policy changes. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, focus turns to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech later this week, set to provide perspective on the direction of future bank policy. Other investors are paying close attention as well to what comes out of the two-day FOMC meeting in America, which would have implications on global financial markets and overall currency trends. In contrast to domestic woes, the news from Japan’s quarterly spring labor talks came as a welcome relief, with companies consenting to healthy wage increases for the third year in a row — something that could aid consumer consumption and push inflation higher in the months ahead incrementally. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has evidenced renewed vigor after rebounding above the mid-149.00s, reflecting buying bias. The latest price action indicates that the buyers are taking over, particularly after a breakout above the important moving averages on the short-term charts. Nevertheless, the pair has a significant resistance level around the 150.00 psychological level, and a break above this level could lead to further upside. To the disadvantage, instant support exists in the proximity of 149.20–149.00, and breaking below that zone can reflect on the impending stall or change of trend to the current uptrend. Buyers and sellers are set to keep close watch at these levels in awaiting verification of the upcoming trend direction. FORECAST As long as the general market mood continues to lean toward the US Dollar and BoJ plays defensive, USD/JPY will quietly drift upward. A clean penetration above the all-important 150.00 psychological level would lay the groundwork for additional gains, with the possible target being in the 150.75–151.00 area in the short term. Upside momentum could be supported by solid US economic fundamentals and any hawkish undertones in the FOMC meeting. Additionally, positive wage growth in Japan could have inflationary ramifications, but with no policy changes indicated by the BoJ, the Yen would find it challenging to regain resilience. Alternatively, if BoJ Governor Ueda signals a tighter outlook or in case of any disappointing US economic data, USD/JPY may be on the downside. A breakout below the 149.00 level may mark a reversal of recent trend and send the currency back into correction. Additive weakness may see the pair decline towards the 148.20–148.00 region, and if mood turns sharply risk-averse,

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Bulls Reign Supreme as BoJ Tightening Bets Pile Up and USD Falters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar, fueled by rising bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and decreasing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. Latest statistics revealing sustained inflation and robust wage increases in Japan has reaffirmed prospects of sustained BoJ policy firming, sending Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. Conversely, the US Dollar is weakening with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to reduce interest rates later this year after weaker-than-anticipated job market data. Also, geopolitical risks and renewed US trade policy concerns are increasing the safe-haven demand for the Yen, keeping the USD/JPY currency pair bearish. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market expects additional BoJ tightening due to ongoing inflation and wage growth, underpinning Japanese Yen strength versus the US Dollar. • Constricting interest rate differential continues to favor the lower-yielding Yen, putting additional downside pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. • Sluggish US employment data and economic worries support multi-Fed rate cut expectations, further undermining the Dollar outlook. • Increasing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty boost investor demand for the Yen as a haven currency. The Japanese Yen continues to be on a solid ground as markets increasingly factor in additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to increasing wage growth and lingering inflation in the local economy. This has seen the yields of Japanese government bonds shoot up, even further reducing the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. In the meantime, the US Dollar falters under increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will launch a rate-cutting cycle after weak labor market data. Contributing to the Yen’s attractiveness is its safe-haven status, which gathers strength in the face of global trade uncertainty and economic worries over US trade policy. These factors combined continue to bear down on the USD/JPY pair, pointing to further downside momentum in the near term. The Japanese Yen remains firm on increasing hopes of BoJ rate hikes and declining US-Japan yield differentials. Poor US economic data and safe-haven buying further dampen the USD/JPY pair. • Rising inflation and robust wage growth enhance the prospects of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. • Japanese government bond yields jumped to 2009 highs, aiding Yen appreciation. • The US-Japan interest rate spread is still decreasing in favor of the Japanese Yen compared to the US Dollar. • Current US jobs data and economic reports increase anticipation of several Fed rate cuts in the current year. • Global uncertainties and trade tensions boost the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • USD/JPY continues to be bearish, with support at around 146.00 and room for further downward movement towards 145.00. The Japanese Yen is still strengthening as hopes rise for additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Robust wage growth and ongoing inflation in Japan have supported the view that the central bank will further tighten its monetary policy. This follows a rise in government bond yields and a significant shift in Japan’s economic landscape, where labor unions are demanding substantial wage hikes. The overall mood indicates increasing optimism over Japan’s economic strength and the BoJ’s willingness to intervene against inflationary pressures. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the US Dollar is in a bearish mood as a result of less-than-anticipated employment figures and increasing fears about the US economic outlook. Market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates ahead of schedule, further eroding the Dollar’s attractiveness. Also, doubts regarding US trade policy and global economic threats continue to fuel the safe-haven appetite for the Japanese Yen. Such divergence in Japan-US central bank policies and attitudes towards the economy continues to remain a major impetus in tightening the Yen’s grip in world markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair presents a bearish picture as it continues to hover below major resistance levels, signifying downward movement. A persistent dip below the 147.00 level can validate further weakening, with the support areas of 146.50 and 146.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels, implying that while the pair might witness some short-term correction or minor pullback, the overall trend will be bearish. Overall, the technical configuration is in favor of sellers, with any bounce likely to meet stiff resistance around 148.00 to 148.70 levels. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 147.00 mark and increases its bullish strength, it could try to undergo a short-term bounce-back. Under such circumstances, the initial resistance would most probably be encountered at the 148.00 level, followed by a stronger resistance near the 148.65–148.70 area. A prolonged passage above this area could initiate further upward momentum towards the psychological 149.00 level. If positive sentiment intensifies, the pair could even rise towards the 149.80–150.00 level, where major supply could restrict further advancements. Conversely, if the pair breaks and holds below 147.00, it may validate additional bearish pressure. The subsequent pivotal support is at 146.50, and a strong break below here would trigger the way for a deeper fall towards 146.00. Further selling momentum can see the pair probe the 145.25–145.00 region, before further support in the vicinity of the 144.80–144.75 region. The overall technical perspective is one of vulnerability for further downside price action, and only strong bullish drivers would help turn the outlook in favor of the pair.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Set for Further Upside as BoJ Rate Hike Bets Build and US-Japan Rate Differentials Narrow

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  • March 6, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) reversed its intraday declines against a faltering US Dollar (USD) and is trading close to a multi-month high, fueled by increasing bets for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rising JGB yields and the decreasing rate differential between the US and Japan remain supportive of the JPY. Nevertheless, fears of US tariffs on Japan, rising US Treasury yields, and positive risk sentiment in the market could cap further appreciation of the safe-haven currency. While the technical indicators hint at a bearish consolidation in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due to be released, which may provide more guidance. A fall below the 148.00 mark is still feasible, while the 150.00 level can act as resistance to any expected bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market expects further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to support the JPY and tighten the US-Japan yield differential. • Future Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other jobs numbers will impact USD sentiment and could guide the next significant move for USD/JPY. • Fears of additional tariffs by the US against Japanese imports could bring uncertainty and affect risk sentiment, which can influence JPY’s safe-haven demand. • USD/JPY is marked at important support around 148.00, with a breakdown lower to intensify downside potential, while resistance around 150.00 might limit rebounds. Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in the spotlight as investors watch for major economic and geopolitical drivers underpinning its direction versus the US Dollar (USD). Hopes for additional rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still underpin the JPY, reducing the US-Japan yield gap and making the currency stronger. In the meantime, the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be a key driver, dictating USD sentiment and determining the next direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Furthermore, fear of possible US tariffs on Japanese imports introduces a degree of uncertainty, which may affect risk appetite and propel demand for safe-haven currencies such as the JPY. Technically, the 148.00 support is still key, with a breach through it possibly fueling further losses, while the 150.00 psychological resistance could limit any near-term bounces. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of BoJ rate hike expectations and a declining US-Japan yield gap. But future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures and fears of possible US tariffs on Japan could sway market sentiment. The major technical levels of 148.00 support and 150.00 resistance will decide the next big move in USD/JPY. • Increasing speculation of additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate increases underpins the JPY and reduces the US-Japan interest rate spread. • The JPY is at a multi-month high against the USD, erasing intraday losses as part of the broader USD weakness. • The coming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and other jobs data will be pivotal in guiding the direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Concerns that the US is going to impose additional tariffs on Japan introduce uncertainty and could influence market sentiment. • Higher Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and declining US Treasury yields make JPY stronger against the USD. • As much as JPY gains on safe-haven demand, rising US bond yields and positive risk tone could keep further gains in check. • USD/JPY has significant support at 148.00, while resistance around 150.00 can cap potential rallies, setting the stage for the next big move. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to benefit from increasing hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to hike interest rates. The change in monetary policy is a testiment to Japan’s changing economic terrain, where economic stability and inflationary pressures have become central concerns. The increase in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields also indicates a shift away from the nation’s historically ultra-loose monetary policy. Consequently, investors are becoming more confident in the JPY as a solid alternative during times of global economic uncertainty. Moreover, Japan’s economic resilience and government policies to maintain growth continue to support market sentiment towards the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical and trade-related issues continue to be significant determinants of market conditions. The recent talks about the possibility of US tariffs on imports from Japan have generated wary mood, given that trade policy can have a broader impact on economic relations between the two countries. Market participants are keeping a close eye on events, as a change in trade relationships may affect Japan’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, the global financial market is keenly watching major economic indicators, especially in the US, where employment figures and fiscal policies might have an impact on wider currency movements. During these events, the JPY continues to be a key factor in the forex market, a reflection of Japan’s economic prowess and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating in a familiar range after a sharp drop from its yearly high around 159.00. The present price action implies a bearish consolidation phase, with momentum indicators on the daily chart remaining in negative ground but not yet triggering oversold readings. This suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist, with major support at the 148.00 level, which, if broken, could speed further losses toward the 147.35 zone. On the positive side, the 149.50-150.00 area represents instant resistance, and any movement above this can possibly lead to a short-covering rally. But overall market sentiment and technical factors will then dominate the move in the next big move in the pair. FORECAST If sentiment is changed in the direction of the US Dollar (USD), then the USD/JPY can make a northward movement if there are any positive surprises on US economic numbers, like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), in the near future. A good jobs report would underpin the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain prudent in the rate-cut stance, favoring the USD. Moreover, if the world risk appetite gets better and equity markets continue

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Crosses 150: Japanese Yen Weakens as Policy Uncertainty and Fed Expectations Bite

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  • February 28, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to depreciate against a relatively stronger US Dollar (USD), with USD/JPY breaking above the 150.00 level as uncertainty over monetary policies grips markets. Japan’s smaller fiscal budget and falling bond yields have put additional pressure on the Yen, though hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes could cap its decline. In the meantime, investors are waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate policy and decide on the next step for USD/JPY. Technically, the pair is still in consolidation mode, with major resistance at 150.30 and nearby support around 149.00. The wider picture indicates the possibility of an extension of losses, yet any upside breakout would propel the pair towards the 152.40 level, a significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 150.30 resistance point remains important, with a breakdown below 149.00 potentially to extend losses towards the 147.00 level. • The Japanese government’s budget reductions might act to soften the Yen, yet BoJ’s resolve to raise rates might act as long-term support. • Merchants look to the PCE Price Index for hints about the Fed’s next step, affecting USD strength and USD/JPY direction. • Risk-off sentiment can increase demand for the safe-haven Yen, slowing USD/JPY gains even as the Dollar is stronger overall. The USD/JPY currency pair is still at a critical crossroads as traders balance Japan’s fiscal reforms with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) possible rate hikes, in addition to waiting for major US economic releases. The budget cutting of the Japanese government and decreased bond yields have been pressuring the Yen, but hopes of more monetary tightening from the BoJ might soften its fall. On the other hand, the US Dollar is strong as it awaits the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which might shape Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for USD/JPY. Technical analysis points to major resistance at 150.30, with a breakaway possibly taking the pair to 152.40, while support is close at 149.00. Market sentiment, especially a move towards risk-off trades, can also influence movement of the pair in the next few sessions. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to the 150.00 level as Japan’s fiscal policy and BoJ’s rate hike chances are compared with US economic indicators. The US PCE Price Index to be released next will have implications for Fed policy, which may affect the Dollar’s strength and Yen’s performance. The significant resistance is 150.30, while the important support lies at 149.00. • The US Dollar gains as the Japanese Yen loses strength, taking USD/JPY higher than the psychological level. • The government spending cuts and decreased bond issuance exert pressure on the Yen, regardless of BoJ’s possible interest rate hikes. • Investors also expect additional BoJ tightening that will cap excessive Yen weakening even with weaker economic data. • The next US PCE Price Index will play a pivotal role in determining the Federal Reserve’s next step. • The crucial resistance is 150.30, while the support is 149.00, with the possibility of losses to 147.00 in case of breaching. • A risk-off sentiment may underpin the Yen as a safe-haven currency, offsetting some USD strength. • Hawkish Fed rhetoric and inflation worries imply minimal near-term rate cuts, maintaining the USD strong against the JPY. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as market participants weigh Japan’s economic policies against global monetary trends. The latest move by the government to slash its fiscal budget and cut back on bond issuance has created alarm over economic growth and financial health. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is, however, sticking with its gradual policy shifts, expecting interest rate rises to persist as inflation edges near the central bank’s 2% target. Even as Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures slowed down, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated the bank’s position, laying stress on the consistent uptick in core inflation. Japan’s industrial production has, however, been in decline, reflecting economic weakness that may go on to shape policy actions in the future. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, investors are watching US economic data closely, especially the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Recent US economic data has continued to point to persistent inflationary pressures, and it implies that the Fed will keep its restrictive policy going for a more extended period of time. Policy-makers have signaled that they will maintain interest rates firm to contain inflation, and hence there is careful market sentiment. Furthermore, worry about possible inflationary threats due to future policies of the US government provides a further source of uncertainty. With traders waiting for fresh economic reports, the general market outlook remains focused on the policies of the central banks as well as the economic performance in Japan and the US. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY continues in a state of consolidation, with the significant levels determining its short-term path. The currency pair has been fluctuating around the 150.00 psychological level, and the immediate resistance is located around 150.30, coinciding with the weekly high. A clean break above this might unleash additional upward momentum, and the 150.90–151.00 zone could be a possible target. To the downside, robust support is noted at 149.00, with a breakdown below this level leaving the pair vulnerable to further losses in the direction of the 148.60–148.55 area. Overall trend indicates that the pair continues in a bearish consolidation pattern after its retracement from the multi-month high of around 159.00 during the early part of the year. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, which means that selling pressure continues, and unless there is a breakout, the overall outlook still supports a downside bias. FORECAST USD/JPY may break above the crucial resistance at 150.30, with the possibility of further increases. A long-term move above this level may lead to short-covering, pushing the pair to the 150.90–151.00

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Currencies USD/JPY

Cautious Yen Rally: BoJ Hike Bets and Falling Back JGB Yields Keep USD/JPY Below 150

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  • February 24, 2025
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The US Dollar has stayed below 150 versus the Japanese Yen, at its lowest against the currency since October, because of increasing expectation that the Bank of Japan will keep raising rates as inflation endures. But backpedaling on JGB yields caps the yen’s gains, as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals willingness to boost bond purchases if long-term yields increase too steeply. Even with USD-selling momentum, the dollar continues to be under pressure, weighed down by poor US economic data and persistent inflation worries. Japanese Yen bulls are going slow as falling JGB yields and chances of moreforceful BoJ rate hikes keep the currency’s regain in check, keeping the USD/JPY pair under the key 150 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Track BoJ actions on bond purchases and policy changes since they can shift market sentiment fast and impact USD/JPY levels through major thresholds. • Monitor JGB yield movements keenly, as falling yields may top the yen’s rise, capping potential USD/JPY rebound and impacting overall market dynamics. • Monitor US economic data releases, such as retail and PMI numbers, because worsening indicators may lead to rapid changes in investor sentiment. • Monitor key technical levels on USD/JPY, as breaks of support or resistance areas may facilitate directional moves and quickly shift market positioning. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Bank of Japan policy moves, as surprise bond-buying interventions or rate hikes could quickly change USD/JPY dynamics. Trends in Japanese Government Bond yields need to be closely watched because steadily falling yields could hamper yen advances and cap pair recovery. It is also important to watch U.S. economic data, including retail sales and PMI numbers, closely because deteriorating data can quickly turn market sentiment. Lastly, monitoring important technical levels on the USD/JPY pair is essential since breaks through set support or resistance areas may force sudden directional movements. Bank of Japan policy and Japanese government bond yields since any surprise movements may rapidly change USD/JPY dynamics. Closely monitor U.S. economic indicators and important technical levels for early indications of shifts in market sentiment. • Yen bulls are still guarded even at a two-month peak, as a result of worries about falling Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. • BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated potential for more bond purchases if yields surge, foreshadowing additional rate hike expectations. • Recent figures reporting Japan’s core inflation at a 19-month peak support projections of more forceful monetary policy tightening. • The USD/JPY pair remains below the pivotal 150 level, with technical resistance anticipated close to this psychological level. • Weaker-than-expected US economic data, such as a disappointing Walmart sales estimate and weakening PMI, have added to renewed USD selling. • Follow-through buying might push the pair upward towards resistance levels, while any weakness in support might set off a more abrupt fall. • There is support on the immediate side around the levels of 148.85-149.00, with downside targets possible at the 147.00 levels if these are broken. Investors in Japanese Yen are being cautious in light of changing market conditions, with expectations of continued policy tightening from the Bank of Japan being muted by efforts to stabilize government bond yields. The central bank has indicated that it is prepared to step in should bond yields climb too steeply, a gesture that highlights its determination to preserve financial stability while coping with the challenges presented by increasing inflation. Recent evidence of a persistent increase in core inflation has further cemented market hopes for more assertive action, even as such policy signals work to contain speculative action in the currency. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, United States economic indicators such as softer retail sales projections and deceleration in general business activity have added to balanced sentiment in international markets. Investors are still keeping an eye on the overall economic environment, where cautious optimism is slowly giving way to a more cautious approach. With policymakers watching these closely, the changing economic story on both sides of the Pacific is to influence monetary strategies in the future without causing sudden changes in market activity. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is currently struggling with major levels that may determine its immediate direction. The close proximity resistance around the 150.00 level acts as a psychological wall, and a prolonged break above this level could set the stage for the pair to aim for higher resistance around the 150.70-150.75 level and higher towards the 150.90-151.00 horizontal support. On the other hand, the region between 148.85 to 148.65 has proven to be a crucial support area, where a breakdown could pave the way for additional losses down to the 147.00-147.45 area. This technical configuration indicates that investors would be keenly watching these levels in order to assess the vigor of potential reversal or continuation moves on the pair’s path. FORECAST If sentiment improves, the USD/JPY pair may witness a gradual upward trajectory. A continued surge through the 150.00 psychological level can create a rally and enable the pair to probe resistance at around the 150.70-150.75 area and then advance towards the 150.90-151.00 zone. Such possible upmove would be underpinned by follow-through purchases and a positive reinterpretation of the policy position of the BoJ, which, if seen as an indicator of faith in Japan’s economic prospects, would fuel fresh investor sentiment. On the negative side, if the immediate support levels around 148.85-148.65 do not hold, the pair can see a sharper fall. A break in this region may trigger a quick change in sentiment, driving the pair lower towards the next support level in the 147.00-147.45 region. In such a case, ongoing vigilance among participants and fresh pressure from USD selling may intensify the fall, placing greater emphasis on these support levels in mitigating the downside risk.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Reaches More Than Two-Month High Versus USD on BoJ Rate Hike Speculation and Global Risk Aversion

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has reached a more than two-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as escalating speculation of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes pushes Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to record-high levels. This narrowing differential rate enhances the Yen’s attractiveness, again fueled by worldwide risk aversion after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs. Even with the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bias, the USD cannot find footing, with investors watching for key support levels around the 150.00 psychological level for USD/JPY. If the bearish pressure persists, the pair may dip further, with resistance around 151.00-152.65 potentially capping any attempts at an upside. Market players now look to US economic data and Fed rhetoric for guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher bets on more BoJ rate hikes drive Japanese government bond yields up, bolstering the Yen and reducing the rate spread. • Investor morale deteriorates as US President Donald Trump hints at fresh tariffs, triggering global risk aversion and increasing demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 psychological level, with a possible downside extension to 149.00 should bearish momentum continue. • Even with a hawkish Fed, the US Dollar fails to make headway, with future economic data and FOMC speeches likely to guide market direction. The Japanese Yen maintains its bullish run on increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and spiking Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate gap bolsters the Yen, and the global risk aversion, which is fueled by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs, adds to safe-haven demand. The US Dollar is still unable to attract buyers, despite the hawkish tone set by the Federal Reserve, and keeps USD/JPY trading below the 150.00 psychological level. Traders now look for major support levels, Fed policy indications, and future US economic data to drive the pair. The Japanese Yen rises as increased BoJ rate hike hopes and jumping JGB yields lift demand. Risk aversion is driven by Trump’s tariff threats, also helping the Yen. The US Dollar, however, lags in spite of the Fed’s hawkishness, leaving USD/JPY close to the pivotal 150.00 mark.  • Increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes drive Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to their highest level in more than a decade. • The Japanese Yen jumps to a two-month high versus the US Dollar as the declining rate differential enhances its attractiveness. • US President Donald Trump’s proposals for fresh tariffs induce global risk aversion, and demand for the safe-haven Yen rises. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 level, with additional downside potential towards 149.00 if bearish momentum persists. • In spite of the Federal Reserve’s conservative sentiment and inflationary worries, the US Dollar has a hard time gaining momentum versus the rising Yen. • Japan’s Trade Minister is set to discuss tariff exclusions with the US, something that may have implications on trade and currency trends. • Market participants look for significant US economic indicators, such as jobless claims and Fed speeches, to provide additional guidance on the USD/JPY currency pair. The Japanese Yen is still firming as hopes rise that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. Increased Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are a sign of the central bank moving away from its extremely loose monetary stance, and this makes the Yen more appealing to investors. Further, the latest economic news, such as Japan’s better-than-expected Q4 GDP, back up the argument that the Japanese economy is healthy enough to digest a rise in interest rates. Such a move in monetary policy is regarded as being a pivotal decision for Japan while it faces the challenges of economic recovery and taming inflation. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, geopolitics and trade tensions contribute to the attractiveness of the Yen as a safe-haven currency. US President Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding new tariffs have disturbed world markets, and investors have turned to more secure assets such as the Yen for stability. Japan’s Trade Minister is also scheduled to discuss possible exemptions from the tariffs, underlining the current trade tensions. In contrast, while taking into consideration the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance with regards to next rate decisions, the US Dollar has not significantly appreciated, as market players still await forthcoming economic data and policy updates from the two nations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair flirts with key 150.00 psychological benchmark, with speculative traders closely looking at key supports and resistances. A clean break below 150.00 would further boost bearish momentum, driving the pair to the 149.60-149.55 area and then down to 149.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, reflecting persistent selling pressure without yet showing signs of being oversold. On the upside, the 150.90-151.00 area now serves as a first resistance level, with any break above likely to initiate a short-covering rally to 151.40. Additional gains may encounter selling interest near the 152.00 level, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.65 is an important pivot point for short-term traders. FORECAST If the USD/JPY pair can hold above the 150.90-151.00 resistance area, it may cause a short-term rebound. Breaking above the level could prompt buyers to take the pair towards the next important barrier at 151.40. Above this, additional upside may be challenged in the vicinity of the 152.00 psychological level, where selling pressure would be expected. But if bullish momentum persists, the level of 152.65, coinciding with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), will be an important level to monitor. A firm break above this would potentially set the stage for additional gains, drawing buyers into higher resistance areas. On the negative side, persistent bear momentum would lead USD/JPY to break below the pivotal 150.00 psychological support. A clean break below this level might boost the selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the subsequent support area of 149.60-149.55. If this level is also breached, the downtrend might continue towards the 149.00 level, followed

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains on Strong GDP Data, Puts Pressure on USD/JPY Near One-Week Low

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  • February 17, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to hold strong gains after a strong Q4 GDP report supported expectations of more interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Narrowing US-Japan rate difference, combined with persistent weakness of the US Dollar (USD) amid disappointing US retail sales and market skepticism around Trump’s offered reciprocal tariffs, holds the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. Owing to hawkishness offered by the Federal Reserve, offering some support for the USD notwithstanding, the functional bias remains skewed towards JPY bulls, making a further lower direction for the currency pair quite likely. Support levels are key around 151.40 and 150.00, with any bounce being met with resistance at 152.70 and higher.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Solid Q4 GDP growth of 2.8% supports the view that the Bank of Japan will keep tightening monetary policy. • A soft US Retail Sales report and worries over Trump’s retaliatory tariffs keep the USD at a two-month low, bearing down on the USD/JPY pair. • The diminishing gap between US and Japanese interest rates strengthens the Yen, increasing investor confidence in Japan’s currency amid BoJ’s hawkish stance. • USD/JPY faces immediate support near 151.40, with further downside potential toward 150.00, while resistance lies at 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen as robust Q4 GDP data reinforces expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The decline in the US-Japan rate differential and continued US Dollar softness, fueled by soft US Retail Sales data and reservations regarding Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs, maintain the USD/JPY cross close to a one-week low. Although the Federal Reserve’s hard-dollar bias lends some support to the USD, overall sentiment remains in favor of JPY bulls. Critical support for the duo comes around the 151.40 and 150.00 points, whereas any bounce could see stiff resistance near 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen is still strong following positive Q4 GDP numbers, further solidifying BoJ rate hike expectations and putting pressure on USD/JPY around a one-week low. Poor US Retail Sales and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs worries also bear down further on the USD, as key support and resistance levels at 151.40 and 152.70, respectively. • Japan’s Q4 GDP increased by 2.8%, further solidifying hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. • The Japanese Yen holds its ground, driving the USD/JPY pair down as the US Dollar weakens. • A steep 0.9% decline in US retail sales puts further pressure on the USD, dampening investor sentiment. • Uncertainty in the markets regarding Trump’s tariffs plans on US imports is adding to USD weakness and JPY strength. • A narrowing gap between US and Japanese interest rates is further adding to the bullish momentum of the Yen. • USD/JPY is supported close to 151.40 and 150.00, but resistance is found at 152.70 and 154.00. • The USD gets some support from the Fed’s determination to hold rates higher, capping USD/JPY losses deeper than this. The Japanese Yen keeps gaining strength with Japan’s 2.8% Q4 GDP growth increasing hopes of higher rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The constricting US-Japan rate gap, coupled with soft US economic indicators, has held the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. The US Dollar is still under the gun after the sudden 0.9% fall in US retail sales to signal weakening consumer expenditures. Moreover, uncertainty surrounding former President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs has contributed to market uncertainty, which has dampened the USD further. Investors currently expect a stronger Yen in the short term, with major support levels at 151.40 and 150.00. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Even though the USD is weak, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance on interest rates serves as a counterbalance, stopping further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Fed’s hesitation to reduce rates in the near future gives some relief to the USD, but its upside is still limited by prevailing sentiment. The USD/JPY technical levels are being watched closely by traders, with resistance at 152.70 and 154.00, which would see a short-covering rally if broken. Still, with the BoJ tightening measures and a closing rate gap, the bullish momentum in the Yen is set to continue, placing pressure on the currency pair during the next few sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to significant support levels at 151.40, with further downside risk towards the psychological 150.00 level. Daily chart oscillators are still in bearish territory, and the decreasing US-Japan rate gap continues to support the Yen. A slide below 150.90 could further enhance selling pressure, driving the pair towards the 149.60-149.55 range and possibly testing the 149.00 support. On the higher side, any bounce might find stiff resistance at 152.70, which coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A breakout above 153.15 (100-day SMA) may result in a short-covering rally, pushing the pair to 154.00 and the 154.75-154.80 supply area. But since fundamentals favor the Yen, the overall trend will remain bearish unless USD bulls take charge again. FORECAST USD/JPY pair can recover if some conditions are met. A breach above the 152.00 level may propel the pair towards the robust resistance level of 152.70, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A firm breakout above this level might lead to a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the 153.15 region (100-day SMA). If bullish pressure intensifies, the subsequent target is around the 154.00 psychological level, then the 154.45-154.50 supply zone. Another push higher might have the pair retracing last week’s high in the vicinity of the 154.75-154.80 area, if the US Dollar regains power on the back of aggressive Federal Reserve policy or improved risk appetite for global markets. USD/JPY remains below 152.00, with near-term support around 151.40-151.45. A break below here might trigger selling pressure faster, taking the pair down to 150.90, which is the lowest level since December 10. Further falls might test the psychological 150.00, with longer losses making the descent towards the support

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Consolidates Amid Trade War Fears and BoJ Rate Hike Speculations

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  • February 11, 2025
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The USD/JPY currency pair remains in a consolidative phase around the 152.00 mark due to conflicting factors that are currently influencing market sentiment. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have reignited global trade war fears, thereby boosting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. On the flip side, expectations of a delay by the Federal Reserve in terms of rate cuts amidst inflationary pressures are buoying the US Dollar. On the other hand, increasing speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further are bolstering the Yen but are offset by concerns of instability in Japan’s economy due to Donald Trump’s policies. From a technical standpoint, the pair faces resistance at 152.50, with a downside bias suggesting potential declines toward the 151.00-150.90 zone if selling pressure intensifies. However, a breakout above 152.50 could pave the way for further gains toward 153.00 and beyond. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data for clearer direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will likely disrupt global trade, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of JPY and raising concerns about the stability of Japan’s economy. • As inflation remains above the 2% target, growing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may strengthen the Yen. • The Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts, which is largely dependent on Powell’s testimony and US inflation figures, will be crucial in determining the next move of USD/JPY. The USD/JPY pair is at a critical juncture as multiple factors shape its trajectory. Recent US tariffs under Donald Trump have only added fuel to concerns of a global trade war, making the Japanese Yen a safe haven currency while sowing uncertainty over the stability of Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, speculations about additional interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan continue to be positive for the Yen as inflation remains higher than the 2 percent target of the central bank. Meanwhile, any signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell or upcoming data that could either accelerate or restrain monetary policy should propel the course in the USD currency. It looks like resistance and support of key levels appear below at around 152.50. Thus a sustained pull from the inside bar zone may turn out towards significant further deterioration at 151.00 – 150.90. Of late, markets continue to keep themselves busy focusing keenly over future economic events of the economic states. USD/JPY still trades in the range, though, with fresh tariffs by Trump fueling fear of a full-blown trade war that strengthens the Yen. Uncertainty in Fed rate cut also helps support the USD. BoJ’s potential rate hike further impacts the sentiment. 152.50 resistance and 151.00-150.90 support form the pair’s next direction of movement. Further direction would now be sought on Powell’s testimony and US inflation data. • The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by President Trump increases global trade tensions, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • Inflation above the 2% target would further encourage the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates, supporting the JPY. • Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data, which will help decide the central bank’s next monetary policy move. • The US Dollar is buoyed by growing hopes that the Fed will postpone the rate cuts, as economic and labor market conditions are surprisingly robust. • USD/JPY has hit a significant resistance zone at 152.50 where the 100- and 200-day SMAs are located. • If the pair falls below this crucial support zone, it will create further selling momentum to the psychological 150.00 mark. • Traders remain vigilant in the days ahead as geopolitics, inflation figures, and the decisions of the central banks influence the USD/JPY direction. USD/JPY is still trading in a consolidation mode due to the uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the decisions of the central banks. Recent 25% tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on imports of steel and aluminum have resurfaced fears of a trade war, making the safe haven Japanese Yen an attractive bet for traders. However, the possibility of retaliatory measures and disruption in trade agreements against Japan’s economy has kept further JPY gains at bay. Meanwhile, expectations of more rate hikes by the BoJ continue to be supportive of the Yen, with policymakers indicating that the increase might reach 1% by the second half of the fiscal year. USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA It will be hard for the BoJ to avoid hiking the rate further, given that inflation in Japan is consistently above the central bank’s 2% target. On the other hand, the US Dollar remains strong as market players anticipate the Federal Reserve may delay lowering interest rates due to concerns of sustained inflation. Investors will be on the lookout for the congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US consumer inflation figures released shortly, which would shed light on the central bank’s intentions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is consolidating near the 152.00 level, facing strong resistance at 152.50, where the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) converge. A decisive break above this key level could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards the 153.00 psychological mark, with the next resistance around 153.75. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 151.30 level, followed by the 151.00-150.90 zone, which has acted as a strong base in recent sessions. A sustained move below this range could accelerate the bearish momentum, exposing the pair to further declines toward the 150.55 intermediate support and the crucial 150.00 psychological level. Besides that, oscillators on the daily chart are in negative territory but have not entered the oversold zone, and thus selling pressure might continue unless a strong bullish catalyst appears. FORECAST The USD/JPY currency pair might be on the path for a bullish breakout if it succeeds in sustaining its move above the

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Falls Amid BoJ Rate Hike Expectations, Trump’s Tariff Concerns

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  • February 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is weakening further amid concerns that former US President Donald Trump might impose further trade tariffs against Japan, weighing on the latter’s economy. Though a marginal U.S. Dollar strength in the USD/JPY exchange rate supports this pair, another round of rising expectations for yet another rate hike by the BoJ limits losses in the Japanese Yen. Investors are closely watching Japan’s bond yields, inflation trends, and global market volatility, as the BoJ’s tightening stance contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach. Additionally, technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, making further downside movement a possibility. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors anticipate another Bank of Japan interest rate hike, driven by rising inflation and real wage growth, supporting the Japanese Yen. • Renewed fears of U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminum imports may pressure Japan’s economy, potentially impacting the Yen’s strength. • A strong U.S. Dollar, supported by upbeat job data and Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, influences the USD/JPY pair’s price movement. • The USD/JPY pair faces strong resistance at this confluence zone, with a potential downside move if the pair fails to sustain above it. The Japanese Yen faces a complex trading environment as investors weigh the impact of potential U.S. trade tariffs, a strong U.S. Dollar, and expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). While hawkish BoJ sentiment and rising Japanese bond yields offer support to the Yen, concerns over Trump’s protectionist policies and their inflationary effects continue to pressure the currency. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, coupled with strong U.S. job data, further strengthens the Dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair volatile. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest that the pair remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, with potential downside risks if selling pressure intensifies. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure amid renewed U.S. trade tariff concerns and a strong U.S. Dollar, despite growing expectations of a BoJ rate hike. While rising Japanese bond yields offer some support, technical indicators suggest USD/JPY remains vulnerable below the 152.50-152.45 resistance zone, with potential downside risks. • Investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again, supporting the Yen and narrowing the U.S.-Japan rate differential. • Renewed fears of U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminum imports add pressure on Japan’s economy and the Yen. • Strong U.S. job data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance provide a lift to the U.S. Dollar, impacting USD/JPY movement. • Higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields support the Yen, limiting deeper losses despite global economic concerns. • USD/JPY faces strong resistance at this key confluence zone, making further gains uncertain. • The IMF points out spillover risks for BoJ rate hikes, which include increased costs of debt servicing and financial pressure on corporates. • The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in a volatile range due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, global inflation trends, and central bank decisions. The Japanese Yen remains on the back foot as renewed fears over potential U.S. trade tariffs and a strong U.S. Dollar take a toll on its performance. Former President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raises fears of economic strain on Japan, adding to the Yen’s weakness. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rates, coupled with strong U.S. job data, continues to support the Dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair elevated. Expectations of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also helped limit deeper losses for the Yen, as the widening JGB yields close the interest rate gap between the US and Japan. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/JPY pair faces technical resistance around the 152.50-152.45 confluence zone, suggesting that further upside may be capped short of strong buying momentum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also warned Japan to remain vigilant about potential financial risks stemming from BoJ’s tightening measures, including rising government debt costs and corporate financial stress. Additionally, Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages have shown steady growth, reinforcing the case for further monetary tightening by the BoJ. With ongoing global market volatility and uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, the Yen’s movement remains highly sensitive to economic and geopolitical developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, which includes the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Indicators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, signaling a bearish bias, though not yet in the oversold zone. If the pair fails to sustain above this resistance level, fresh selling pressure could push prices lower towards the 151.25 support, followed by the critical 151.00-150.95 zone. A decisive break below this area could open the door for further declines towards the 150.50 psychological level and 149.60 horizontal support. However, a sustained move above 152.50 may trigger short-covering, allowing the pair to reclaim the 153.00 level, with further upside potential depending on market sentiment and fundamental catalysts. FORECAST The USD/JPY pair could see an upward movement if the U.S. Dollar remains strong, driven by positive economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. A sustained break above the 152.50-152.45 resistance zone could trigger fresh buying interest, allowing the pair to reclaim the 153.00 psychological level. If bullish momentum persists, the next upside target would be 153.50, followed by the 154.00 mark. Further gains could be supported by renewed concerns over Japan’s economic outlook, particularly if the Bank of Japan takes a slower approach to monetary tightening. Any increase in global risk tone may also keep pushing investors toward the U.S. Dollar, as a haven, and subsequently lift USD/JPY more. On the downside, this pair has found some critical supports at 151.25 now, followed by the 151.00-150.95 zone. It can easily head down from that area, touching the next destination at 150.50; that is again a psychological target. If selling pressure intensifies, USD/JPY could extend its decline towards 149.60 and potentially test the December swing low near 148.65. Factors that

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