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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Rally Extends Amid US-China Trade Deal Hopes and Fed’s Hawkish Tone, Targeting 145.00 Level

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  • May 8, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to come under pressure due to hopes over a US-China trade deal and the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve driving the USD/JPY pair higher, with the pair near the 145.00 level. In spite of the Fed’s rate pause cues, the USD remains supported by the continued hopes for trade deals fueled by US President Trump’s statement about the announcement of a big deal. While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) provides cues about prospective interest rate increases in 2025, the global economic risks, especially about the US tariffs, may cap firmer JPY losses. Technical indicators are indicating further upside in USD/JPY, with levels to keep an eye on at 144.00 and 145.00. KEY LOOKOUTS • The USD/JPY currency pair is moving up as a result of optimism over a US-China trade agreement and the Federal Reserve’s policy of maintaining rates unchanged, which indicates support for the US Dollar. • The minutes of the BoJ indicate possible future interest rate increases in 2025, although global uncertainty and economic unpredictability will constrain the Japanese Yen’s losses. • President Trump’s statements on a significant trade deal announcement also increase investor optimism in the US Dollar, supporting JPY’s underperformance as a safe-haven currency. • The duo is set to test the 145.00 psychological level, with major technical resistance at 144.00 and support levels near 143.40, which affect market mood and price action. USD/JPY pair maintains its rally, supported by a mix of US trade agreement optimism and the hawkish bias of the Federal Reserve, which supports US Dollar confidence. President Trump’s recent remarks over a big announcement of a trade deal have even further added fuel to anticipation, boosting the USD against the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan has even threatened to hike interest rates in 2025 but with worldwide economic uncertainties surrounding the tariffs imposed by the US having checked the ascent of the Yen. Consequently, the duo is getting close to the 145.00 level, with technical charts indicating that resistance at 144.00 and support at 143.40 will be the key determinants of the next direction. USD/JPY pair keeps on moving upwards, fueled by US trade deal optimism and a dovish Fed attitude. Although the Bank of Japan hints at future rate rises later in 2025, global uncertainties continue to put pressure on the Japanese Yen, taking the pair towards the 145.00 level. •  Optimism over US-China trade discussions increases investor confidence, favoring the US Dollar relative to the Japanese Yen. • The Fed’s hold on interest rates has supported the US Dollar, which has helped its strength against safe-haven currencies such as the Yen. • In spite of worldwide economic uncertainty, the Bank of Japan indicates that it can increase interest rates in 2025, curbing further losses for the Yen. • President Trump’s words regarding a significant trade deal announcement later today further support USD sentiment, pressuring the Yen. • Continuous uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and geopolitical unrest, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis, dents the safe-haven value of the Yen. • The pair is close to crucial resistance at 145.00, with levels of support at 143.40 and 143.00 probably shaping subsequent price action. • Traders expect President Trump’s press conference to offer fresh cues on the course of US trade policy and impact the overall market mood. USD/JPY currency pair is picking up speed, spurred on by increasing hope surrounding US-China trade negotiations and the recent dovish tilt in Federal Reserve monetary policy. Supportive comments by President Trump on a big trade deal announcement due later today again boosted confidence in the US Dollar, as global economic volatility remains a source of concern that keeps the Japanese Yen on the back foot. The expectation of a possible US trade agreement and the Fed’s choice to wait before lowering rates have helped push the US Dollar higher, which has undermined the safe-haven status of the Yen. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also cautious but indicates that it might hike interest rates in 2025 if inflationary trends persist. In spite of these possible plans to tighten, the BoJ remains wary of global economic uncertainty, notably regarding US trade policy. Consequently, the potential for the Yen to recover is subdued, notably as the US Dollar remains buoyed by optimism over trade deals and general market sentiment. Traders are following events closely, which influence the current direction in USD/JPY. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is now probing major resistance levels near the 144.00 level, and has the potential to move past 145.00, which is a psychological level. The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is still a key metric to monitor, as it has acted as a resistance level in the past. If the pair is able to break above 144.30, it may lead to a rally up to the 145.00 level and further to 146.00. On the other hand, the immediate support areas are around 143.40-143.35, and a break below these levels would likely send the pair to the 142.35-142.00 region. These technical considerations, in addition to overall market sentiment, will most probably dictate the near-term direction of USD/JPY. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is expected to continue its bullish trend, particularly if the pair successfully crossed the 144.30 resistance level. A prolonged movement above this level may set the stage towards the psychological 145.00 level, a key level to watch for traders. If the US Dollar continues to be strong on sustained optimism regarding US trade agreements and the hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve, USD/JPY may continue its rally, possibly testing levels around 146.00 in the near future. Momentum indicators also indicate that if the pair continues to be bullish, it may move higher, driven by investor optimism regarding the US economy and declining global risk concerns. Conversely, if the pair is rejected around the 144.00-144.30 levels and cannot stay above these levels, a corrective retrace might ensue. Levels of support around 143.40-143.35 are

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weakens on BoJ’s Dovish Forecast, Traders Look to Governor Ueda’s Remarks for Rate-Hike Hints in the Future

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  • May 1, 2025
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Japanese Yen has continued to fall for the third straight day, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and cut its inflation and growth projections. The BoJ’s conservative attitude, in anticipation of US tariffs and a potential de-escalation of US-China trade tensions, has prompted the weakening of the Yen. Investors are now turning to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s next words for clues on the direction of interest rates ahead, with hopes that the BoJ will lift rates in 2025. Even so, wider market forces, such as softening US economic numbers and even potential Federal Reserve rate cuts down the road, indicate the Yen can hold some support in the near term, with traders keeping close watch on key technical levels for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market participants are eagerly looking forward to the remarks of BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take cues on future possible rate increases and the central bank’s views on inflation and economic growth, which will decide the direction of the Yen. •  The recent US GDP decline and soft ADP employment numbers are sparking fears of a possible US recession, which can impact the monetary policy of the Fed and the USD/JPY pair. • US-China trade talks developments, or any potential easing, have the potential to meaningfully affect sentiment in markets, with potential to influence the safe-haven demand of the Yen. • The USD/JPY currency pair is making a move toward a critical resistance point at 144.00. A breakout here could trigger more gains, or a drop below 142.60 might bring momentum back into the hands of Yen bulls. Japanese Yen is under sustained pressure after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.5% and reduced its growth and inflation projections, indicating a more dovish stance. Market participants are now looking to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s next comments to gauge the central bank’s future rate-hike path, with some speculating that rates could increase in 2025 as inflation slowly accelerates. Meanwhile, softer US economic news, such as a decline in GDP and less-than-anticipated private-sector job growth, may induce a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, potentially favoring the Yen. In the meantime, global risk sentiment, such as any US-China trade talks news, will be important in determining near-term direction for the Yen. Important technical levels for the USD/JPY pair are also in the spotlight, with resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.60 guiding the next possible directions. The Japanese Yen remains soft in the wake of BoJ’s dovish bias, with the market anticipating Governor Ueda’s words for clues on upcoming rate hikes. Downward revisions in US economic data and global trade news bring added uncertainty, with major technical levels for USD/JPY still firmly in the market’s sights for possible action. • The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% and reduced its growth and inflation projections, indicating a conservative stance. • Market participants are looking for clues from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on future rate hikes, with speculation of a rate hike in 2025. • US GDP fell in Q1 2025, and private-sector employment figures were lower than expected, sparking fears of a recession. • Expectations of Fed rate reductions later in the year by the markets may pressure the US Dollar, propping up the lower-yielding Yen. • Any news in US-China trade negotiations, especially de-escalation, may impact risk sentiment and trigger demand for the Yen as a safe-haven currency. • Important resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.60 are key levels for the USD/JPY pair, dictating future possible price movements. • The BoJ’s projection of inflation at around 2% over the period 2027 implies Japan’s economic situation is going to have a major influence on future monetary policy. The Japanese Yen has been under stress after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) announcement to maintain its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% alongside reducing its forecast for economic growth and inflation. This action mirrors the BoJ’s conservative perspective under the cloud of global trade tensions, especially with the US. The central bank has stated that it will also keep economic conditions under close observation, though while lowering its near-term inflation estimates, it maintained that it expected inflation to stick around its 2% goal in the medium term. Market focus now shifts to remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who should also offer clarity regarding the way ahead for interest rates. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Deteriorating US economic fundamentals, also comprising a negative print in GDP along with muted-than-forecast private sector employment, accompany weakening Yen. These events have fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in the near term, potentially supporting the Yen as a lower-yielding currency. Furthermore, continued uncertainties surrounding global trade, especially US-China relations, can have profound effects on market sentiment and the Yen as a safe-haven asset. With these dynamics changing, investors will be keeping a close eye on any commentary from central banks and major economic indicators that could impact the path of the Yen over the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is probing important resistance points, and the 144.00 level has become an important stumbling block. A move above the level would indicate more bullish pressure, which could propel the pair into higher resistance areas. On the negative, the 142.60-142.65 region is regarded as key support, and a break below this region could spark a turnaround, moving the pair downward. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is also acting as support, while the general market sentiment, guided by the BoJ’s dovish policy and US economic releases, will probably drive the next significant moves. The sellers will be keeping a close eye on these technical levels in order to decide the direction of the pair in the near future. FORECAST USD/JPY pair crosses above the 144.00 resistance level, it may create further upside momentum, with the next important target in the vicinity of the 144.60-144.65 zone. This will indicate a continuation of the current bullish

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Resists Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Hike Bets; USD/JPY Fails Below 140

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  • April 22, 2025
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The Japanese Yen strengthened against the US Dollar on Tuesday, fueled by safe-haven demand due to ongoing global trade tensions and increasingly expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike later in 2025. The USD/JPY pair tried to bounce off levels below 140, the bullish bias on the Yen intact as geopolitical uncertainty and differential monetary policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed continue to place pressure on the Dollar. Market sentiment was further rattled by concerns over the Fed’s independence following fresh criticism from former President Donald Trump, keeping USD gains limited. Investors now await key US economic data and global PMI releases for clearer market direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again in 2025 is expected to keep the Japanese Yen supported in the near term. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, stoked by political pressure and rate cut speculation in the markets, continues to influence the US Dollar. • Investors are monitoring progress in the latest US-Japan tariff negotiations, particularly comments by influential officials and possible implications for currency flows. • The Richmond Manufacturing Index and world flash PMIs should deliver new insights into economic well-being, driving near-term USD/JPY price action. Japanese Yen remains in focus as investors weigh safe-haven demand against shifting central bank policies and global trade tensions. Despite a modest intraday pullback, the Yen’s strength is underpinned by rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in 2025, marking a significant divergence from the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate-cutting path. While this, in turn, is being affected by political uncertainty in the U.S. — fueled by renewed skepticism about the independence of the Fed and continuing trade negotiations — the recovery of the Dollar remains curbed. The market now expects major U.S. economic releases and world PMI reading, which should provide clearer guidance for the USD/JPY pair in upcoming sessions. Japanese Yen remains strong as safe-haven demand and expectations of BoJ rate hikes provide support against a softer US Dollar. Uncertainty surrounding US-Japan trade talks and skepticism regarding the Fed’s policy framework remain weighing factors on sentiment. Investors now look to leading economic indicators for new direction on USD/JPY action. • The Yen remains in demand with global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty capping its losses versus the US Dollar. • Speculation in the markets for a Bank of Japan rate increase in 2025 is contributing to the bullishness in the Yen. • The pair rebounded more than 40 pips from around the pivotal 140.00 psychological level but failed to maintain firmness amidst bearish sentiment in the USD. • New political attacks on the Federal Reserve, such as threats against its autonomy, have maintained the Dollar on defensive levels close to multi-year lows. •  Japanese and American official quotes underpin the subtlety in current tariff negotiations, holding back investors. •  USD/JPY encounters strong resistance at 141.65-141.60 and has the vital support zones at 140.45 and 140.00. •  Upcoming events such as Richmond Manufacturing Index and global flash PMIs are to determine USD/JPY’s next decisive movement. Japanese Yen continues to find support in its safe-haven demand, with continuing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks holding investor sentiment in check. Market observers continue to be focused on the status of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, especially after Japanese officials noted the intricacy involved in securing an agreement given touchy topics such as tariffs on autos and agriculture. As the talks proceed, the Yen will probably continue to be a favored destination for investors seeking stability amid uncertain times. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Substantiating the Yen’s support is also the increasing market perception that the Bank of Japan might hike interest rates in 2025, a significant reversal after years of extremely accommodative monetary policy. Conversely, the U.S. Dollar is under siege as political uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and conflicting economic signals create doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. This policy difference between the United States and Japan remains to influence currency market dynamics and reflects the cautious sentiment among traders. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair indicates signs of stabilization following a bounce back from the sub-140.00 psychological level, which has now become a significant support point. The 140.45 area, where the pair had recently established a multi-month low, is likely to provide initial downside cushioning. But the general bearish tone is still in place as far as the pair remains below the 141.60–141.65 resistance area — an important horizontal level that had served as support. A break above this region on a sustained basis may initiate a short-covering rally, paving the way for additional advances to the 142.00 and 142.35 resistance areas. To its detriment, a break below 140.45 could leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, potentially testing the yearly swing low around the 139.60–139.55 area. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 140.45 support level and accumulates sufficient bullish strength, it may try to retest the immediate resistance in the 141.60–141.65 area. A decisive break and sustained strength above this area can pave the way for a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the psychological 142.00 mark. Additional bullish extension may drive the pair to test the next major hurdle around the 142.35–142.40 area, where sellers are likely to reappear. Conversely, however, if the USD/JPY pair is unable to hold its ground above the 140.45 level, bear pressure may strengthen, pulling the pair back towards the important 140.00 psychological level. A clean break beneath this support level would most probably speed up the downside move, targeting the 2024 yearly swing low at the 139.60–139.55 region. A break below this level may warn of a deeper bear trend and possibly trigger further selling in the near term.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Outlook: Slowing Downside Momentum, Rangebound Trading Ahead of 145.40–148.50

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  • April 10, 2025
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The USD/JPY currency pair is stabilizing after sharp recent moves, and analysts at UOB Group believe that downside momentum is starting to slow. Although the US Dollar temporarily slipped to 143.98, it then recovered sharply, showing conflicting short-term signals. Until now, the USD should trade between 145.40 and 148.50. A decisive move above the 148.50 resistance level would indicate that the recent Dollar weakness has probably run its course. But until then, there is still a low probability of a retest of the 144.00 level in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  USD/JPY should trade between 145.40 and 148.50 in the near term, indicating a phase of consolidation following recent volatility. •  A persistent break above 148.50 would indicate that recent bear pressure on the USD has probably bottomed, with the outlook now assuming a more neutral or bullish character. •  As momentum lower tapers out, there is still a low probability of USD returning to the 144.00 level before a more definite rebound. •  After the sharp decline and strong recovery, the market is still unsure; traders need to look for direction confirmation before they take positions. After recent fluctuations in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders need to pay close attention to a few important levels and signals. The currency will continue to be range-bound between 145.40 and 148.50 in the short run, indicating a consolidation period. A breakout above the 148.50 resistance level would indicate that the recent bear pressure on the US Dollar has bottomed out, and the door could be open for further advances. Yet, with momentum still in doubt, there is still a low risk of the pair retesting the 144.00 support level before any meaningful recovery. Traders should wait for definitive directional signals before entering new positions. USD/JPY will trade between 145.40 and 148.50 as bearish momentum starts to decline. A breakout above 148.50 will indicate stabilization of the USD, while a slide towards 144.00 is still a short-term risk. • USD/JPY will trade between 145.40 and 148.50 short term. • Recent price movement indicates bear pressure on USD is beginning to weaken. • Major support is at the 145.00 level, and a short-lived drop to 143.98 was recently witnessed. • Major resistance is at 148.50; a breakout above it would mark trend change. • Gaudy swings render the immediate trend uncertain, suggesting consolidation. • A small possibility is still there for USD to test the 144.00 level again before consolidating. • Traders must hold back for a firm move above or below major levels for clearer guidance. USD/JPY currency pair is at the moment going through a period of turmoil, with investors and market players closely monitoring for hints of stability. However, after a period of wild fluctuations, sentiment seems to be swinging in a different direction, and attention is turning on whether volatility witnessed in recent times will make way for more stable trading conditions. According to analysts, the wild fluctuations are likely to start subsiding, making it a more predictable market for both traders and investors. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the larger picture, this progress is a reflective response in the currency market from players reacting to a combination of economic indicators and international influences. Though the ultimate direction is not yet certain, the immediate focus is on regaining equilibrium and waiting for stronger signals. This point is one of opportunity for the market to re-evaluate and re-coalesce, and to lay the groundwork for the next phase of action with enhanced clarity and determination. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has exhibited signs of consolidation following a sharp period of volatility, as price action stabilized around major levels. The pair recently bounced from a low at around 144.00 and hit resistance at around 148.50, which suggests a likelihood of a change in momentum. Although short-term indicators portray a mixed picture, the slowing of downward momentum indicates a likely buildup for a breakout. A break and hold above 148.50 would seal the trend stabilization deal, but losing the levels of 145.40 might sustain the pair within a consolidatory mode. Players are following the levels very intently for direction. FORECAST USD/JPY may break above the resistance level of 148.50, indicating a possible change to a more stable or rising trend. A definitive move beyond this level may set the stage for 149.50 and higher, as buyers come in with increased confidence. This would indicate that recent US Dollar weakness has probably bottomed out, and the stage is set for a modest recovery against the Yen in the short to medium term. On the negative, if USD/JPY does not hold support at 145.40, the pair would be subjected to fresh selling pressure. A slide below 145.00 may see a test of the new low around 144.00, and fresh weakness could target deeper support areas. Although declining momentum is fazing out at the moment, any renewed bearish sentiment or unforeseen economic news may continue to push the pair down, prolonging the corrective cycle.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Bulls Reign Supreme as BoJ Tightening Bets Pile Up and USD Falters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar, fueled by rising bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and decreasing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. Latest statistics revealing sustained inflation and robust wage increases in Japan has reaffirmed prospects of sustained BoJ policy firming, sending Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. Conversely, the US Dollar is weakening with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to reduce interest rates later this year after weaker-than-anticipated job market data. Also, geopolitical risks and renewed US trade policy concerns are increasing the safe-haven demand for the Yen, keeping the USD/JPY currency pair bearish. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market expects additional BoJ tightening due to ongoing inflation and wage growth, underpinning Japanese Yen strength versus the US Dollar. • Constricting interest rate differential continues to favor the lower-yielding Yen, putting additional downside pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. • Sluggish US employment data and economic worries support multi-Fed rate cut expectations, further undermining the Dollar outlook. • Increasing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty boost investor demand for the Yen as a haven currency. The Japanese Yen continues to be on a solid ground as markets increasingly factor in additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to increasing wage growth and lingering inflation in the local economy. This has seen the yields of Japanese government bonds shoot up, even further reducing the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. In the meantime, the US Dollar falters under increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will launch a rate-cutting cycle after weak labor market data. Contributing to the Yen’s attractiveness is its safe-haven status, which gathers strength in the face of global trade uncertainty and economic worries over US trade policy. These factors combined continue to bear down on the USD/JPY pair, pointing to further downside momentum in the near term. The Japanese Yen remains firm on increasing hopes of BoJ rate hikes and declining US-Japan yield differentials. Poor US economic data and safe-haven buying further dampen the USD/JPY pair. • Rising inflation and robust wage growth enhance the prospects of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. • Japanese government bond yields jumped to 2009 highs, aiding Yen appreciation. • The US-Japan interest rate spread is still decreasing in favor of the Japanese Yen compared to the US Dollar. • Current US jobs data and economic reports increase anticipation of several Fed rate cuts in the current year. • Global uncertainties and trade tensions boost the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • USD/JPY continues to be bearish, with support at around 146.00 and room for further downward movement towards 145.00. The Japanese Yen is still strengthening as hopes rise for additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Robust wage growth and ongoing inflation in Japan have supported the view that the central bank will further tighten its monetary policy. This follows a rise in government bond yields and a significant shift in Japan’s economic landscape, where labor unions are demanding substantial wage hikes. The overall mood indicates increasing optimism over Japan’s economic strength and the BoJ’s willingness to intervene against inflationary pressures. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the US Dollar is in a bearish mood as a result of less-than-anticipated employment figures and increasing fears about the US economic outlook. Market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates ahead of schedule, further eroding the Dollar’s attractiveness. Also, doubts regarding US trade policy and global economic threats continue to fuel the safe-haven appetite for the Japanese Yen. Such divergence in Japan-US central bank policies and attitudes towards the economy continues to remain a major impetus in tightening the Yen’s grip in world markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair presents a bearish picture as it continues to hover below major resistance levels, signifying downward movement. A persistent dip below the 147.00 level can validate further weakening, with the support areas of 146.50 and 146.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels, implying that while the pair might witness some short-term correction or minor pullback, the overall trend will be bearish. Overall, the technical configuration is in favor of sellers, with any bounce likely to meet stiff resistance around 148.00 to 148.70 levels. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 147.00 mark and increases its bullish strength, it could try to undergo a short-term bounce-back. Under such circumstances, the initial resistance would most probably be encountered at the 148.00 level, followed by a stronger resistance near the 148.65–148.70 area. A prolonged passage above this area could initiate further upward momentum towards the psychological 149.00 level. If positive sentiment intensifies, the pair could even rise towards the 149.80–150.00 level, where major supply could restrict further advancements. Conversely, if the pair breaks and holds below 147.00, it may validate additional bearish pressure. The subsequent pivotal support is at 146.50, and a strong break below here would trigger the way for a deeper fall towards 146.00. Further selling momentum can see the pair probe the 145.25–145.00 region, before further support in the vicinity of the 144.80–144.75 region. The overall technical perspective is one of vulnerability for further downside price action, and only strong bullish drivers would help turn the outlook in favor of the pair.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Set for Further Upside as BoJ Rate Hike Bets Build and US-Japan Rate Differentials Narrow

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  • March 6, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) reversed its intraday declines against a faltering US Dollar (USD) and is trading close to a multi-month high, fueled by increasing bets for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rising JGB yields and the decreasing rate differential between the US and Japan remain supportive of the JPY. Nevertheless, fears of US tariffs on Japan, rising US Treasury yields, and positive risk sentiment in the market could cap further appreciation of the safe-haven currency. While the technical indicators hint at a bearish consolidation in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due to be released, which may provide more guidance. A fall below the 148.00 mark is still feasible, while the 150.00 level can act as resistance to any expected bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market expects further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to support the JPY and tighten the US-Japan yield differential. • Future Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other jobs numbers will impact USD sentiment and could guide the next significant move for USD/JPY. • Fears of additional tariffs by the US against Japanese imports could bring uncertainty and affect risk sentiment, which can influence JPY’s safe-haven demand. • USD/JPY is marked at important support around 148.00, with a breakdown lower to intensify downside potential, while resistance around 150.00 might limit rebounds. Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in the spotlight as investors watch for major economic and geopolitical drivers underpinning its direction versus the US Dollar (USD). Hopes for additional rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still underpin the JPY, reducing the US-Japan yield gap and making the currency stronger. In the meantime, the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be a key driver, dictating USD sentiment and determining the next direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Furthermore, fear of possible US tariffs on Japanese imports introduces a degree of uncertainty, which may affect risk appetite and propel demand for safe-haven currencies such as the JPY. Technically, the 148.00 support is still key, with a breach through it possibly fueling further losses, while the 150.00 psychological resistance could limit any near-term bounces. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of BoJ rate hike expectations and a declining US-Japan yield gap. But future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures and fears of possible US tariffs on Japan could sway market sentiment. The major technical levels of 148.00 support and 150.00 resistance will decide the next big move in USD/JPY. • Increasing speculation of additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate increases underpins the JPY and reduces the US-Japan interest rate spread. • The JPY is at a multi-month high against the USD, erasing intraday losses as part of the broader USD weakness. • The coming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and other jobs data will be pivotal in guiding the direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Concerns that the US is going to impose additional tariffs on Japan introduce uncertainty and could influence market sentiment. • Higher Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and declining US Treasury yields make JPY stronger against the USD. • As much as JPY gains on safe-haven demand, rising US bond yields and positive risk tone could keep further gains in check. • USD/JPY has significant support at 148.00, while resistance around 150.00 can cap potential rallies, setting the stage for the next big move. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to benefit from increasing hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to hike interest rates. The change in monetary policy is a testiment to Japan’s changing economic terrain, where economic stability and inflationary pressures have become central concerns. The increase in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields also indicates a shift away from the nation’s historically ultra-loose monetary policy. Consequently, investors are becoming more confident in the JPY as a solid alternative during times of global economic uncertainty. Moreover, Japan’s economic resilience and government policies to maintain growth continue to support market sentiment towards the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical and trade-related issues continue to be significant determinants of market conditions. The recent talks about the possibility of US tariffs on imports from Japan have generated wary mood, given that trade policy can have a broader impact on economic relations between the two countries. Market participants are keeping a close eye on events, as a change in trade relationships may affect Japan’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, the global financial market is keenly watching major economic indicators, especially in the US, where employment figures and fiscal policies might have an impact on wider currency movements. During these events, the JPY continues to be a key factor in the forex market, a reflection of Japan’s economic prowess and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating in a familiar range after a sharp drop from its yearly high around 159.00. The present price action implies a bearish consolidation phase, with momentum indicators on the daily chart remaining in negative ground but not yet triggering oversold readings. This suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist, with major support at the 148.00 level, which, if broken, could speed further losses toward the 147.35 zone. On the positive side, the 149.50-150.00 area represents instant resistance, and any movement above this can possibly lead to a short-covering rally. But overall market sentiment and technical factors will then dominate the move in the next big move in the pair. FORECAST If sentiment is changed in the direction of the US Dollar (USD), then the USD/JPY can make a northward movement if there are any positive surprises on US economic numbers, like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), in the near future. A good jobs report would underpin the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain prudent in the rate-cut stance, favoring the USD. Moreover, if the world risk appetite gets better and equity markets continue

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Crosses 150: Japanese Yen Weakens as Policy Uncertainty and Fed Expectations Bite

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  • February 28, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to depreciate against a relatively stronger US Dollar (USD), with USD/JPY breaking above the 150.00 level as uncertainty over monetary policies grips markets. Japan’s smaller fiscal budget and falling bond yields have put additional pressure on the Yen, though hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes could cap its decline. In the meantime, investors are waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate policy and decide on the next step for USD/JPY. Technically, the pair is still in consolidation mode, with major resistance at 150.30 and nearby support around 149.00. The wider picture indicates the possibility of an extension of losses, yet any upside breakout would propel the pair towards the 152.40 level, a significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 150.30 resistance point remains important, with a breakdown below 149.00 potentially to extend losses towards the 147.00 level. • The Japanese government’s budget reductions might act to soften the Yen, yet BoJ’s resolve to raise rates might act as long-term support. • Merchants look to the PCE Price Index for hints about the Fed’s next step, affecting USD strength and USD/JPY direction. • Risk-off sentiment can increase demand for the safe-haven Yen, slowing USD/JPY gains even as the Dollar is stronger overall. The USD/JPY currency pair is still at a critical crossroads as traders balance Japan’s fiscal reforms with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) possible rate hikes, in addition to waiting for major US economic releases. The budget cutting of the Japanese government and decreased bond yields have been pressuring the Yen, but hopes of more monetary tightening from the BoJ might soften its fall. On the other hand, the US Dollar is strong as it awaits the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which might shape Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for USD/JPY. Technical analysis points to major resistance at 150.30, with a breakaway possibly taking the pair to 152.40, while support is close at 149.00. Market sentiment, especially a move towards risk-off trades, can also influence movement of the pair in the next few sessions. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to the 150.00 level as Japan’s fiscal policy and BoJ’s rate hike chances are compared with US economic indicators. The US PCE Price Index to be released next will have implications for Fed policy, which may affect the Dollar’s strength and Yen’s performance. The significant resistance is 150.30, while the important support lies at 149.00. • The US Dollar gains as the Japanese Yen loses strength, taking USD/JPY higher than the psychological level. • The government spending cuts and decreased bond issuance exert pressure on the Yen, regardless of BoJ’s possible interest rate hikes. • Investors also expect additional BoJ tightening that will cap excessive Yen weakening even with weaker economic data. • The next US PCE Price Index will play a pivotal role in determining the Federal Reserve’s next step. • The crucial resistance is 150.30, while the support is 149.00, with the possibility of losses to 147.00 in case of breaching. • A risk-off sentiment may underpin the Yen as a safe-haven currency, offsetting some USD strength. • Hawkish Fed rhetoric and inflation worries imply minimal near-term rate cuts, maintaining the USD strong against the JPY. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as market participants weigh Japan’s economic policies against global monetary trends. The latest move by the government to slash its fiscal budget and cut back on bond issuance has created alarm over economic growth and financial health. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is, however, sticking with its gradual policy shifts, expecting interest rate rises to persist as inflation edges near the central bank’s 2% target. Even as Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures slowed down, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated the bank’s position, laying stress on the consistent uptick in core inflation. Japan’s industrial production has, however, been in decline, reflecting economic weakness that may go on to shape policy actions in the future. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, investors are watching US economic data closely, especially the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Recent US economic data has continued to point to persistent inflationary pressures, and it implies that the Fed will keep its restrictive policy going for a more extended period of time. Policy-makers have signaled that they will maintain interest rates firm to contain inflation, and hence there is careful market sentiment. Furthermore, worry about possible inflationary threats due to future policies of the US government provides a further source of uncertainty. With traders waiting for fresh economic reports, the general market outlook remains focused on the policies of the central banks as well as the economic performance in Japan and the US. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY continues in a state of consolidation, with the significant levels determining its short-term path. The currency pair has been fluctuating around the 150.00 psychological level, and the immediate resistance is located around 150.30, coinciding with the weekly high. A clean break above this might unleash additional upward momentum, and the 150.90–151.00 zone could be a possible target. To the downside, robust support is noted at 149.00, with a breakdown below this level leaving the pair vulnerable to further losses in the direction of the 148.60–148.55 area. Overall trend indicates that the pair continues in a bearish consolidation pattern after its retracement from the multi-month high of around 159.00 during the early part of the year. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, which means that selling pressure continues, and unless there is a breakout, the overall outlook still supports a downside bias. FORECAST USD/JPY may break above the crucial resistance at 150.30, with the possibility of further increases. A long-term move above this level may lead to short-covering, pushing the pair to the 150.90–151.00

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Currencies USD/JPY

Cautious Yen Rally: BoJ Hike Bets and Falling Back JGB Yields Keep USD/JPY Below 150

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  • February 24, 2025
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The US Dollar has stayed below 150 versus the Japanese Yen, at its lowest against the currency since October, because of increasing expectation that the Bank of Japan will keep raising rates as inflation endures. But backpedaling on JGB yields caps the yen’s gains, as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals willingness to boost bond purchases if long-term yields increase too steeply. Even with USD-selling momentum, the dollar continues to be under pressure, weighed down by poor US economic data and persistent inflation worries. Japanese Yen bulls are going slow as falling JGB yields and chances of moreforceful BoJ rate hikes keep the currency’s regain in check, keeping the USD/JPY pair under the key 150 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Track BoJ actions on bond purchases and policy changes since they can shift market sentiment fast and impact USD/JPY levels through major thresholds. • Monitor JGB yield movements keenly, as falling yields may top the yen’s rise, capping potential USD/JPY rebound and impacting overall market dynamics. • Monitor US economic data releases, such as retail and PMI numbers, because worsening indicators may lead to rapid changes in investor sentiment. • Monitor key technical levels on USD/JPY, as breaks of support or resistance areas may facilitate directional moves and quickly shift market positioning. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Bank of Japan policy moves, as surprise bond-buying interventions or rate hikes could quickly change USD/JPY dynamics. Trends in Japanese Government Bond yields need to be closely watched because steadily falling yields could hamper yen advances and cap pair recovery. It is also important to watch U.S. economic data, including retail sales and PMI numbers, closely because deteriorating data can quickly turn market sentiment. Lastly, monitoring important technical levels on the USD/JPY pair is essential since breaks through set support or resistance areas may force sudden directional movements. Bank of Japan policy and Japanese government bond yields since any surprise movements may rapidly change USD/JPY dynamics. Closely monitor U.S. economic indicators and important technical levels for early indications of shifts in market sentiment. • Yen bulls are still guarded even at a two-month peak, as a result of worries about falling Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. • BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated potential for more bond purchases if yields surge, foreshadowing additional rate hike expectations. • Recent figures reporting Japan’s core inflation at a 19-month peak support projections of more forceful monetary policy tightening. • The USD/JPY pair remains below the pivotal 150 level, with technical resistance anticipated close to this psychological level. • Weaker-than-expected US economic data, such as a disappointing Walmart sales estimate and weakening PMI, have added to renewed USD selling. • Follow-through buying might push the pair upward towards resistance levels, while any weakness in support might set off a more abrupt fall. • There is support on the immediate side around the levels of 148.85-149.00, with downside targets possible at the 147.00 levels if these are broken. Investors in Japanese Yen are being cautious in light of changing market conditions, with expectations of continued policy tightening from the Bank of Japan being muted by efforts to stabilize government bond yields. The central bank has indicated that it is prepared to step in should bond yields climb too steeply, a gesture that highlights its determination to preserve financial stability while coping with the challenges presented by increasing inflation. Recent evidence of a persistent increase in core inflation has further cemented market hopes for more assertive action, even as such policy signals work to contain speculative action in the currency. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, United States economic indicators such as softer retail sales projections and deceleration in general business activity have added to balanced sentiment in international markets. Investors are still keeping an eye on the overall economic environment, where cautious optimism is slowly giving way to a more cautious approach. With policymakers watching these closely, the changing economic story on both sides of the Pacific is to influence monetary strategies in the future without causing sudden changes in market activity. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is currently struggling with major levels that may determine its immediate direction. The close proximity resistance around the 150.00 level acts as a psychological wall, and a prolonged break above this level could set the stage for the pair to aim for higher resistance around the 150.70-150.75 level and higher towards the 150.90-151.00 horizontal support. On the other hand, the region between 148.85 to 148.65 has proven to be a crucial support area, where a breakdown could pave the way for additional losses down to the 147.00-147.45 area. This technical configuration indicates that investors would be keenly watching these levels in order to assess the vigor of potential reversal or continuation moves on the pair’s path. FORECAST If sentiment improves, the USD/JPY pair may witness a gradual upward trajectory. A continued surge through the 150.00 psychological level can create a rally and enable the pair to probe resistance at around the 150.70-150.75 area and then advance towards the 150.90-151.00 zone. Such possible upmove would be underpinned by follow-through purchases and a positive reinterpretation of the policy position of the BoJ, which, if seen as an indicator of faith in Japan’s economic prospects, would fuel fresh investor sentiment. On the negative side, if the immediate support levels around 148.85-148.65 do not hold, the pair can see a sharper fall. A break in this region may trigger a quick change in sentiment, driving the pair lower towards the next support level in the 147.00-147.45 region. In such a case, ongoing vigilance among participants and fresh pressure from USD selling may intensify the fall, placing greater emphasis on these support levels in mitigating the downside risk.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains on Strong GDP Data, Puts Pressure on USD/JPY Near One-Week Low

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  • February 17, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to hold strong gains after a strong Q4 GDP report supported expectations of more interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Narrowing US-Japan rate difference, combined with persistent weakness of the US Dollar (USD) amid disappointing US retail sales and market skepticism around Trump’s offered reciprocal tariffs, holds the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. Owing to hawkishness offered by the Federal Reserve, offering some support for the USD notwithstanding, the functional bias remains skewed towards JPY bulls, making a further lower direction for the currency pair quite likely. Support levels are key around 151.40 and 150.00, with any bounce being met with resistance at 152.70 and higher.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Solid Q4 GDP growth of 2.8% supports the view that the Bank of Japan will keep tightening monetary policy. • A soft US Retail Sales report and worries over Trump’s retaliatory tariffs keep the USD at a two-month low, bearing down on the USD/JPY pair. • The diminishing gap between US and Japanese interest rates strengthens the Yen, increasing investor confidence in Japan’s currency amid BoJ’s hawkish stance. • USD/JPY faces immediate support near 151.40, with further downside potential toward 150.00, while resistance lies at 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen as robust Q4 GDP data reinforces expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The decline in the US-Japan rate differential and continued US Dollar softness, fueled by soft US Retail Sales data and reservations regarding Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs, maintain the USD/JPY cross close to a one-week low. Although the Federal Reserve’s hard-dollar bias lends some support to the USD, overall sentiment remains in favor of JPY bulls. Critical support for the duo comes around the 151.40 and 150.00 points, whereas any bounce could see stiff resistance near 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen is still strong following positive Q4 GDP numbers, further solidifying BoJ rate hike expectations and putting pressure on USD/JPY around a one-week low. Poor US Retail Sales and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs worries also bear down further on the USD, as key support and resistance levels at 151.40 and 152.70, respectively. • Japan’s Q4 GDP increased by 2.8%, further solidifying hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. • The Japanese Yen holds its ground, driving the USD/JPY pair down as the US Dollar weakens. • A steep 0.9% decline in US retail sales puts further pressure on the USD, dampening investor sentiment. • Uncertainty in the markets regarding Trump’s tariffs plans on US imports is adding to USD weakness and JPY strength. • A narrowing gap between US and Japanese interest rates is further adding to the bullish momentum of the Yen. • USD/JPY is supported close to 151.40 and 150.00, but resistance is found at 152.70 and 154.00. • The USD gets some support from the Fed’s determination to hold rates higher, capping USD/JPY losses deeper than this. The Japanese Yen keeps gaining strength with Japan’s 2.8% Q4 GDP growth increasing hopes of higher rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The constricting US-Japan rate gap, coupled with soft US economic indicators, has held the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. The US Dollar is still under the gun after the sudden 0.9% fall in US retail sales to signal weakening consumer expenditures. Moreover, uncertainty surrounding former President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs has contributed to market uncertainty, which has dampened the USD further. Investors currently expect a stronger Yen in the short term, with major support levels at 151.40 and 150.00. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Even though the USD is weak, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance on interest rates serves as a counterbalance, stopping further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Fed’s hesitation to reduce rates in the near future gives some relief to the USD, but its upside is still limited by prevailing sentiment. The USD/JPY technical levels are being watched closely by traders, with resistance at 152.70 and 154.00, which would see a short-covering rally if broken. Still, with the BoJ tightening measures and a closing rate gap, the bullish momentum in the Yen is set to continue, placing pressure on the currency pair during the next few sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to significant support levels at 151.40, with further downside risk towards the psychological 150.00 level. Daily chart oscillators are still in bearish territory, and the decreasing US-Japan rate gap continues to support the Yen. A slide below 150.90 could further enhance selling pressure, driving the pair towards the 149.60-149.55 range and possibly testing the 149.00 support. On the higher side, any bounce might find stiff resistance at 152.70, which coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A breakout above 153.15 (100-day SMA) may result in a short-covering rally, pushing the pair to 154.00 and the 154.75-154.80 supply area. But since fundamentals favor the Yen, the overall trend will remain bearish unless USD bulls take charge again. FORECAST USD/JPY pair can recover if some conditions are met. A breach above the 152.00 level may propel the pair towards the robust resistance level of 152.70, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A firm breakout above this level might lead to a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the 153.15 region (100-day SMA). If bullish pressure intensifies, the subsequent target is around the 154.00 psychological level, then the 154.45-154.50 supply zone. Another push higher might have the pair retracing last week’s high in the vicinity of the 154.75-154.80 area, if the US Dollar regains power on the back of aggressive Federal Reserve policy or improved risk appetite for global markets. USD/JPY remains below 152.00, with near-term support around 151.40-151.45. A break below here might trigger selling pressure faster, taking the pair down to 150.90, which is the lowest level since December 10. Further falls might test the psychological 150.00, with longer losses making the descent towards the support

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Consolidates Amid Trade War Fears and BoJ Rate Hike Speculations

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  • February 11, 2025
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The USD/JPY currency pair remains in a consolidative phase around the 152.00 mark due to conflicting factors that are currently influencing market sentiment. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have reignited global trade war fears, thereby boosting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. On the flip side, expectations of a delay by the Federal Reserve in terms of rate cuts amidst inflationary pressures are buoying the US Dollar. On the other hand, increasing speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further are bolstering the Yen but are offset by concerns of instability in Japan’s economy due to Donald Trump’s policies. From a technical standpoint, the pair faces resistance at 152.50, with a downside bias suggesting potential declines toward the 151.00-150.90 zone if selling pressure intensifies. However, a breakout above 152.50 could pave the way for further gains toward 153.00 and beyond. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data for clearer direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will likely disrupt global trade, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of JPY and raising concerns about the stability of Japan’s economy. • As inflation remains above the 2% target, growing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may strengthen the Yen. • The Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts, which is largely dependent on Powell’s testimony and US inflation figures, will be crucial in determining the next move of USD/JPY. The USD/JPY pair is at a critical juncture as multiple factors shape its trajectory. Recent US tariffs under Donald Trump have only added fuel to concerns of a global trade war, making the Japanese Yen a safe haven currency while sowing uncertainty over the stability of Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, speculations about additional interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan continue to be positive for the Yen as inflation remains higher than the 2 percent target of the central bank. Meanwhile, any signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell or upcoming data that could either accelerate or restrain monetary policy should propel the course in the USD currency. It looks like resistance and support of key levels appear below at around 152.50. Thus a sustained pull from the inside bar zone may turn out towards significant further deterioration at 151.00 – 150.90. Of late, markets continue to keep themselves busy focusing keenly over future economic events of the economic states. USD/JPY still trades in the range, though, with fresh tariffs by Trump fueling fear of a full-blown trade war that strengthens the Yen. Uncertainty in Fed rate cut also helps support the USD. BoJ’s potential rate hike further impacts the sentiment. 152.50 resistance and 151.00-150.90 support form the pair’s next direction of movement. Further direction would now be sought on Powell’s testimony and US inflation data. • The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by President Trump increases global trade tensions, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • Inflation above the 2% target would further encourage the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates, supporting the JPY. • Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data, which will help decide the central bank’s next monetary policy move. • The US Dollar is buoyed by growing hopes that the Fed will postpone the rate cuts, as economic and labor market conditions are surprisingly robust. • USD/JPY has hit a significant resistance zone at 152.50 where the 100- and 200-day SMAs are located. • If the pair falls below this crucial support zone, it will create further selling momentum to the psychological 150.00 mark. • Traders remain vigilant in the days ahead as geopolitics, inflation figures, and the decisions of the central banks influence the USD/JPY direction. USD/JPY is still trading in a consolidation mode due to the uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the decisions of the central banks. Recent 25% tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on imports of steel and aluminum have resurfaced fears of a trade war, making the safe haven Japanese Yen an attractive bet for traders. However, the possibility of retaliatory measures and disruption in trade agreements against Japan’s economy has kept further JPY gains at bay. Meanwhile, expectations of more rate hikes by the BoJ continue to be supportive of the Yen, with policymakers indicating that the increase might reach 1% by the second half of the fiscal year. USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA It will be hard for the BoJ to avoid hiking the rate further, given that inflation in Japan is consistently above the central bank’s 2% target. On the other hand, the US Dollar remains strong as market players anticipate the Federal Reserve may delay lowering interest rates due to concerns of sustained inflation. Investors will be on the lookout for the congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US consumer inflation figures released shortly, which would shed light on the central bank’s intentions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is consolidating near the 152.00 level, facing strong resistance at 152.50, where the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) converge. A decisive break above this key level could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards the 153.00 psychological mark, with the next resistance around 153.75. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 151.30 level, followed by the 151.00-150.90 zone, which has acted as a strong base in recent sessions. A sustained move below this range could accelerate the bearish momentum, exposing the pair to further declines toward the 150.55 intermediate support and the crucial 150.00 psychological level. Besides that, oscillators on the daily chart are in negative territory but have not entered the oversold zone, and thus selling pressure might continue unless a strong bullish catalyst appears. FORECAST The USD/JPY currency pair might be on the path for a bullish breakout if it succeeds in sustaining its move above the

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