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AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Investors Wait for Key US CPI and Treasury Sale

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  • June 11, 2025
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AUD/USD exchange rate remains close to the 0.6500 level as sentiment in the markets becomes guarded in the run-up to important US economic releases. Although initial expectations of a US-China trade agreement provided short-term relief to the Australian Dollar, diminishing faith in the permanence of the deal has resumed selling pressure. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar is capping the downside for the Aussie. Traders now look to the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a large 10-year Treasury Bond auction, both of which are likely to bring better guidance on the greenback and determine the next direction of the AUD/USD pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are closely monitoring the release of US Consumer Price Index data due out, with hopes of a modest increase in inflation having a potential influence on Federal Reserve policy and USD strength. • The $39 bln 10-year Treasury auction may tell us about investor faith in US fiscal soundness, with thin demand perhaps adding further pressure on the US Dollar. • There is still doubt over the long-term viability of the recent US-China trade deal, especially with regards to rare earth metals and tariffs, that may affect risk sentiment and commodity currencies such as the Aussie. • The pair is probing important psychological support around 0.6500; any drop below this level may unveil additional downside, while holding here may prompt short-term re-covering contingent on US data results. Australian Dollar traded weakly as dimming hopes for the preliminary US-China trade accord dragged market sentiment lower. While initial news of the agreement to roll back curbs on rare earth metals and lower tariffs initially boosted risk appetite, failure to provide tangible details has caused investors to doubt its sustainability. In the meantime, the US Dollar’s recent retreat has forestalled further losses for the Aussie and kept the AUD/USD pair close to the 0.6500 level. Market players now begin focusing on the next US CPI report and Treasury Bond auction, which are likely to be pivotal in setting the near-term direction of the currency pair. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6500 as markets wait for significant US economic releases. Dwindling faith in the US-China trade agreement has contained the gains in the Aussie, while a soft US Dollar provides some support. The release of US CPI and upcoming Treasury auction should determine the next course. • AUD/USD trades around 0.6500 in conservative market mood. • US-China trade deal optimism in early stages gives way to disappointment due to insufficient clear details. • Soft US Currency keeps the Australian Dollar from its deeper losses. • US Dollar Index withdraws back below 99.00 following recent highs. • Traders look for US CPI numbers, which are likely to reveal a slight increase in inflation. • A $39 bln US Treasury 10-year bond sale can dictate USD sentiment. • Major support for AUD/USD is at the 0.6500 psychological line. The Australian Dollar is being driven by changing global sentiment as investors absorb the latest news between China and the US. Both nations are reported to have agreed on a preliminary deal to relax rare metal trade restrictions and reduce some tariffs. Yet with scant official information, markets are holding back on jumping to conclusions about the long-term implications and durability of the deal. This doubt continues to drive investor behavior as they navigate the global dynamics of trade. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, eyes are shifting towards important coming events in the US that can potentially affect global financial markets. The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide valuable information on inflation trends, while the $39 billion auction of the 10-year Treasury bond can indicate investor sentiment towards US fiscal policy. Both events have the potential to move overall market mood and currency valuations, making them vital for traders to watch. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is trading close to the crucial psychological support of 0.6500. A consistent stay above this level might prompt buyers to aim for the immediate resistance near 0.6550, then the 0.6600 zone. On the bearish side, a clear break below 0.6500 might set the scene for lower levels towards 0.6450 and even 0.6400. Technical indicators on the shorter charts indicate a neutral to weak bearish slant, with the traders waiting for more decisive cues from future US data releases. FORECAST In the event of the US CPI releasing below market expectations or a muted pick-up, it could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. This would soften the US Dollar, supporting the AUD/USD to rise above the 0.6500 level. Anything positive on the US-China trade deal as well as any further clarification regarding the deal would enhance risk appetite, further supporting the Australian Dollar. On the other hand, if US inflation figures surprise to the upside, this can stoke anticipation of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, increasing the attractiveness of the US Dollar and applying downward pressure to AUD/USD. Additionally, poor demand for the US Treasury bond auction can fuel worries about US fiscal health, which could initially bring risk assets such as the Aussie under pressure. But ongoing uncertainty regarding the US-China trade deal would maintain the pair under selling pressure if investor sentiment remains uncertain.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amidst Fading US-China Optimism and Eurozone Strength

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  • June 10, 2025
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EUR/USD pair has reversed earlier losses, moving back above 1.1420, as investor confidence in the US Dollar wanes amidst ongoing, complex US-China trade negotiations. While positive remarks from President Trump initially offered some USD support, market participants remain cautious, awaiting concrete progress on challenging issues like rare earths and chip exports. Simultaneously, the Euro is finding support from positive Eurozone data, including a significant improvement in the Sentix Investors’ Confidence Index and hawkish comments from ECB officials, along with better-than-expected Italian Industrial Output. The pair is expected to remain within its recent trading range as the market awaits further developments from the trade talks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The specifics and timeline of any resolution to the ongoing trade discussions will be crucial, as a breakthrough could boost risk sentiment and the US Dollar, while prolonged impasses could weigh on it. • Following their recent rate cut, any further signals from the ECB regarding the pace or pause of future monetary policy adjustments, particularly in light of evolving inflation data, will significantly impact the Euro’s trajectory. • Continued strength in Eurozone economic indicators, such as consumer confidence and industrial output, will be essential to sustain the Euro’s current support. Any signs of weakening could shift sentiment against the currency. • The release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be a key determinant for Federal Reserve policy expectations and, consequently, the strength of the US Dollar. EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a rebound, trading above 1.1420, driven by a confluence of factors: waning confidence in the USD due to the intricate and drawn-out US-China trade negotiations, coupled with renewed strength in the Eurozone. Though early supportive statements from US President Trump over the trade talks provided some temporary boost to the dollar, the market is still guarded with respect to the complicated issues in question, including rare earths and chip export bans, which require high concession from both parties. Simultaneously, the Euro is gaining traction from favorable economic data, including a notable improvement in the Sentix Investors’ Confidence Index for June, turning positive for the first time in a year, alongside hawkish remarks from ECB officials and better-than-expected Italian Industrial Output figures. As a result, the pair is expected to largely remain confined within its recent trading ranges as investors await definitive outcomes from the ongoing trade discussions. The EUR/USD has reversed earlier losses, climbing above 1.1420 as waning confidence in the US Dollar, stemming from complex US-China trade talks, converges with growing optimism for the Euro. This Euro strength is fueled by positive Eurozone investor confidence and hawkish comments from ECB officials. The pair is likely to remain range-bound as markets await concrete developments from the trade negotiations. • The pair has retraced previous losses, moving back above 1.1420. • Confidence in the US Dollar is declining due to ongoing US-China trade talks. • While some positive remarks exist, investors are awaiting concrete progress on “thorny issues” in US-China trade. • The Sentix Investors’ Confidence Index in the Eurozone significantly improved in June, turning positive for the first time in a year. • Comments from ECB officials (Olli Rehn and Francoise de Villeroy) have reinforced a hawkish stance. • Italian Industrial Output advanced against expectations, further supporting the Euro. • The pair remains within recent trading ranges as investors are reluctant to place large directional bets until trade developments become clearer. The current market environment sees the Euro regaining some ground against the US Dollar, influenced by shifting sentiment around global trade. While initial reports hinted at constructive discussions between the US and China, the complexities of reaching a comprehensive trade agreement appear to be creating some uncertainty, causing a re-evaluation of the US Dollar’s recent strength. Investors are taking a more cautious stance, patiently awaiting clear signals about the path forward for the world’s two largest economies, especially concerning challenging areas like rare earth minerals and technology exports. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In parallel, the Euro is finding its own foundation for support from within its own region. Recent economic data from the Eurozone has shown encouraging signs, notably with a significant improvement in investor confidence. This positive sentiment is further bolstered by statements from European Central Bank officials, indicating a more attentive approach to monetary policy in the future. Combined with solid industrial output figures from Italy, these developments collectively contribute to a more favorable outlook for the Euro at this time. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD pair has seen a notable reversal, climbing back above the 1.1420 level and holding within a recent trading range. This consolidation suggests that while bulls have found a footing, they are currently encountering resistance, preventing a clear breakout. The price action indicates a battle between buyers and sellers around these levels, with investors awaiting a decisive catalyst—likely from the ongoing US-China trade talks—to establish a new directional trend. Key support and resistance levels within this range will be closely watched, as a clear break above or below these points could signal the next significant move for the pair. FORECAST Euros could continue to rally against the Greenback if a truly meaningful and comprehensive breakthrough in the US-China trade negotiations becomes material. Any deal that leads to a resultant substantially large cut or removal of tariffs is likely to boost the risk appetite at the world level, reduce demand for safe haven USD, and encourage capital flows to more growth-sensitive currency like Euro. Additionally, sustained positive momentum in Eurozone economic data, particularly if inflation figures remain elevated but growth continues to show resilience, could lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a more hawkish stance than currently anticipated. If the ECB signals fewer rate cuts or even a pause in its easing cycle, this would significantly bolster the Euro. Conversely, the EUR/USD pair faces downside pressure if the US-China trade talks stall or completely break down. The current “thorny issues” like rare earths and chip exports could prove difficult to resolve, leading to prolonged uncertainty or even an

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