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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Under Selling Pressure Prior to RBNZ Policy Decision as Market Expects Rate Cut

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  • October 6, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair faced selling pressure on Monday, falling close to 0.5815 as investors became risk-averse prior to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement. Market participants expect the RBNZ to reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the second consecutive rate cut as economic growth slows. At the same time, the US Dollar firmed up as a result of higher safe-haven demand amid French political tensions, adding to the down pressure on the Kiwi. With ongoing threats of a US govt shutdown and bearish technical indicators, NZD/USD finds it difficult to continue its recent run of gains, ranging around important support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut to 2.75%, which could determine the direction for NZD/USD’s next move. • Soft New Zealand GDP statistics supports bets on dovish RBNZ policy. • Greenback rallies on safe-haven buying following French political instability and US fiscal uncertainty. • NZD/USD is capped near 20-day EMA at 0.5847, with vital support points at 0.5800 and 0.5754. NZD/USD currency pair pulled back from initial gains on Monday, trading at around 0.5815 as investors took a guarded approach following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy decision. The anticipation is strong for a 25 basis point rate reduction to 2.75%, sparked by New Zealand’s poor GDP numbers and growing apprehensions of dwindling economic pace. In contrast, the US Dollar rallied following increased safe-haven demand in response to political unrest in France and ongoing threats of a US government shutdown. From a technical perspective, the pair flounders below its 20-day EMA at 0.5847, which points to bearish pressure potentially continuing if it is unable to retake the 0.5800 handle. NZD/USD dropped to the levels of about 0.5815 as speculators grew more cautious before the RBNZ policy announcement. Anticipation of a 25 bps rate reduction and soft NZ economic data pressed down on the Kiwi, and a supportive US Dollar further bolstered the pressure. The pair now finds it difficult to stay above important support levels. • NZD/USD falls to about 0.5815 due to pre-RBNZ policy prudence. • Markets anticipate the RBNZ to lower rates by 25 bps to 2.75% on Wednesday. • Subpar NZ GDP data supports ongoing expectations of monetary easing. • The US Dollar rises on safe-haven demand due to France’s political instability. • Threats of a US government shutdown remain supportive of the Greenback. • NZD/USD is resisted at near the 20-day EMA of 0.5847, indicating bearish bias. • The major downside levels to monitor are 0.5800, 0.5754, and 0.5700 if the selling process accelerates. The NZD/USD currency pair came under fresh pressure on Monday as the investors went cautious before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement, which is scheduled later in the week. The market participants expect the central bank to announce a 25 basis point cut in the rate, reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.75%. This step would be the second straight cut as the RBNZ continues to fight dwindling economic momentum. New Zealand’s GDP figures, which indicated a 0.9% dip in the second quarter, have fueled expectations for additional monetary loosening to prop up growth. NZD/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, the US Dollar received widespread support as investors flocked to the currency for safety in the wake of political unrest in France and continued fears over a possible US government shutdown. These drivers have increased the Greenback’s popularity, adding further pressure on risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. In anticipation of the RBNZ’s decision, the market continues to look to policy signals that have the potential to guide near-term direction for the Kiwi and overall investor sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is weakening as it fails to maintain above the 0.5800 level. The pair is immediately tested near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5847, reflecting ongoing selling pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounced above 40, but a failure to maintain this level might stimulate renewed bearish momentum. If the pair falls below 0.5800, it could set the stage for a drop towards the 0.5754 support area, but a strong break above 0.6000 could turn sentiment in favor of the bulls. FORECAST If the RBNZ surprises markets with a less dovish tone or signals a pause in further rate cuts, NZD/USD could regain upward momentum. A sustained break above the psychological 0.6000 level would likely attract renewed buying interest, paving the way toward the June 19 high of 0.6040 and the September 11 low near 0.6100. Improved risk sentiment or softer US data could further support the Kiwi’s recovery against the Greenback. On the other hand, if the RBNZ reaffirms its dovish stance and hints at further easing, the Kiwi could continue to be under selling pressure. A clean break below 0.5800 could see a plunge to the September 26 low of 0.5754 and possibly the 0.5700 support zone. Excessive US Dollar strength due to global risk aversion or political tensions would further suppress the pair in the near future.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Suffers as Fed is Cautious and Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Can China’s Stimulus Rescue the Kiwi?

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  • March 21, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues to suffer from downward pressure for a third consecutive session as slight US Dollar strength takes its toll on the Kiwi. The Federal Reserve’s position of offering no more than two rate cuts this year, together with continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, has contributed to safe-haven flows towards the Greenback. Though these forces temper the NZD’s outlook, positives surrounding China’s latest stimulus efforts provide some respite to the antipodean currency. Still, without high-profile US economic data releases, traders might still be cautious, waiting for more definitive signals before establishing a reversal in the NZD/USD trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar continues to be supported as markets absorb the Fed’s expectation of just two rate reductions by year-end. • Safe-haven demand for the Greenback continues to be fueled by ongoing Middle East conflicts and Russia-Ukraine war, putting pressure on NZD. • Hopes for China’s recent stimulus efforts may provide near-term support to the Kiwi and other antipodean currencies. • Weak US economic data may result in defensive trading, with investors waiting for a clear trend reversal in NZD/USD. The NZD/USD currency pair is under pressure against a mildly firm US Dollar, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach towards interest rate reductions and persistent geopolitical tensions. The safe-haven demand for the Greenback is supported by ambiguity over global wars, especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, hope over China’s newly proposed stimulus packages provides a possible safety net for the New Zealand Dollar, capping further losses. Without major US economic data, market players will resort to a wait-and-see strategy, awaiting clearer signs before affirming a directional change in the NZD/USD trend. NZD/USD continues to struggle for the third consecutive day against the backdrop of modest USD appreciation and increasing geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, China’s stimulus optimism might serve to confine losses for the Kiwi to a smaller extent. Traders now look for clearer signs before affirming any significant trend change. • NZD/USD is down for the third day in a row, showing ongoing Kiwi weakness in the face of moderate US Dollar firmness. • The Greenback takes support from the Fed estimating only two 25 bps interest rate reductions by the end of the year, enhancing safe-haven demand. • Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks regarding slowed inflation gains and retaliation tariff fears further buoy the Greenback. • Middle East geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain key drivers of demand for the safe-haven USD. • Recent stimulus in China provides some resilience to the New Zealand Dollar, preventing deep declines. • Traders’ restraint due to absence of key US economic data releases keeps them in wait-and-watch mode for more robust cues to take aggressive positions. • Sentiment in markets remains contradictory, with USD strength potential limited by fears of tariff-induced US economic slowdown. The NZD/USD currency pair remains under pressure as general economic and geopolitical considerations shape market sentiment. The US Dollar is supported by the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance towards interest rate reductions, with policymakers only forecasting two cuts this year. Further, comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on potential delays in meeting inflation targets due to global tariff retaliation have contributed to the Greenback’s strength. Meanwhile, continued geopolitical tensions, including Middle East tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, have increased the need for secure assets such as the US Dollar. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, some of the New Zealand Dollar’s positive momentum is coming from China’s newly announced economic stimulus policies. As a key trading partner for New Zealand, China’s economic outlook plays a crucial role in shaping the Kiwi’s performance. The stimulus efforts are expected to boost economic activity, indirectly benefiting export-driven economies like New Zealand. While these global dynamics continue to unfold, traders are closely monitoring market developments, waiting for stronger signals to determine the long-term direction of the currency pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is appearing to suffer from chronic weakness as it is not able to maintain above crucial levels of support, and new selling pressure is seen near the mid-0.5700s. The pair’s failure to hold a bounce back from the 0.5720–0.5725 area indicates that downward momentum is still intact. The markets are eagerly observing for a firm break below this area of support, which might pave the way for more downside. However, any attempt to recover is threatened by the prospects of sellers cropping up in the 0.5780–0.5800 area, unless there’s a very good bullish stimulus shifting sentiment. FORECAST Any shift in the sentiment towards the riskier assets or a decline in the strength of the US Dollar as a result of the dovish inputs from the Fed or disappointing economic reports might result in NZD/USD recovering. A continued advance past the 0.5780–0.5800 resistance level might indicate fresh buying interest and carry the pair toward the next resistance around 0.5840. Improved Chinese economic news or better-than-anticipated New Zealand data might serve as a further catalyst for further pair upside action. On the negative side, sustained US Dollar strength, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or poor market confidence may continue to keep the NZD under strain. A fall below the 0.5720 support level may initiate further losses, setting the stage for a drop towards the 0.5670–0.5650 area. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair may even test lower levels not witnessed in recent months, supporting the bearish outlook unless backed by new fundamental triggers.

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