WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Sellers Retain Control Below 200-Day SMA as Risks of Downside Prevail
WTI Crude Oil began the week on a softer footing, falling close to 2% to trade at levels close to $63.75 per barrel following a seven-week peak recorded last Friday. Price action continues to be contained between the $61.50–$65.00 levels since mid-August, with the 50-day SMA at around $64.00 proving to be a crucial pivot. Sellers still maintain the upper hand below the 200-day SMA, with repeated inability to hold a move above $65.00 cap upside momentum. In the absence of a strong breakout, trading in a range is expected to continue, with the risk bias to the downside toward $61.50–$60.00 should bearish pressure step up. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI is stuck in the $61.50–$65.00 range, with no strong breakout anticipated. • Sellers maintain the upper hand below the 200-day SMA, capping upside momentum. • The 50-day SMA around $64.00 is significant— breaking below can expose support at $61.50. • Sustained trading over $65.00 and $66.19 should set up a path towards the $70.00 July peak. WTI Crude Oil started the week on a selling bias, declining close to 2% to about $63.75 per barrel following last week’s short-lived spike to a seven-week high. The commodity is stuck in a sideways range between $61.50 and $65.00, with the 50-day SMA around $64.00 acting as the key pivot point. As dip buyers remain supporting the $61.50 level, successive inability to hold above $65.00 and the 200-day SMA underscores a bearish inclination. Without a breakout, WTI will most likely continue in a range-bound scenario, with risks skewed for further downside towards $61.50–$60.00. WTI Crude Oil continues its corrective dip, trading at around $63.75 as sellers maintain control below the 200-day SMA. Price action remains capped between $61.50–$65.00, with bearish risks mounting unless bulls reassert control at $65.00 for additional upside. • WTI trades at around $63.75 a barrel, down almost 2% during the day. • Price is range-bound between $61.50–$65.00 since mid-August. • The 50-day SMA at $64.00 is a key near-term pivot. • Below the 200-day SMA, sellers are in control and limiting upside progress. • Multiple failures above $66.19 and $65.00 restrict bullish gains. • A downside break below $61.50 may risk exposing the $60.00–$59.50 downside goals. • A sustained breach above $65.00 would risk leading to a retest of the July high around $70.00. WTI Crude Oil started the week on a weaker tone after the market mood shifted cautiously following last week’s surge to a seven-week high. The traders are still keenly observing wider macroeconomic influences such as global growth worries, supply dynamics, and geopolitical tensions that remain influential in shaping expectations for crude oil demand. The retreat indicates a more cautious tone among investors balancing the prospects for demand revival with ongoing uncertainties in the energy space. WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the oil market is keenly observing signals from large producers and international institutions for any change in supply strategies or demand projections. Overall risk sentiment, as gauged by international financial markets and economic indicators, is also contributing to defining oil price direction. With no new catalysts coming in at the beginning of the week, WTI continues to mirror risk-averse market sentiment, with players waiting for clearer indications before making strong directional commitments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil is still locked within a horizontal trading range of $61.50–$65.00, with the 50-day SMA at approximately $64.00 serving as a major pivot. Sellers remain in control below the 200-day SMA, and repeated rejection around $65.00 emphasizes short bullish weakness. The RSI oscillating around neutral levels and muted ADX point to a dearth of strong trend momentum. A decisive break from this range will be essential, with a break below $61.50 bringing out lower levels, while extended strength above $65.00 might bring attention back to the $70.00 level. FORECAST If WTI Crude Oil is able to break and hold above the $65.00 resistance and the $66.19 high of last week, it would set the stage for a bullish extension towards the July swing high at around $70.00. Such a breakout would indicate fresh buying interest, maybe fuelled by improved market sentiment or supply-side stimuli. A firm close above the 200-day SMA would further fuel bullish momentum, and the way could be paved for a wider recovery in prices. Conversely, inability to stay above the $64.00 pivot and a decisive break below the $61.50 support floor would consolidate the bearish thesis. This should open up downside targets in the region of $60.00 and $59.50, where the sellers are likely to seek to take their control deeper. Absent strong dip buying, the downside bias is likely to remain intact, keeping WTI under pressure at least in the near term.