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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Increases on Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans

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  • March 18, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices inched higher above $67.00 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and upbeat economic news from China. The US military attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen persisting after recent attacks on US warships have further raised energy supply route worries in the Red Sea, increasing transportation and oil prices. At the same time, China’s new economic stimulus proposals to revive domestic consumption and calm markets further bolstered crude prices. But the plus could be constrained by increasing worries about President Trump’s protectionist trade practices, which could slow down world economic growth and energy demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing US military attacks and Houthi strikes in the Red Sea region could disrupt worldwide oil supply routes, placing continued upward pressure on WTI prices. • New moves by China to stimulate consumption and stabilize its economy may lend support to global oil demand and crude prices with a bullish twist. • Escalating worries regarding global trade tensions and inflation following Trump’s belligerent tariff strategy might dampen economic growth and oil demand in the long term. • Diversion of oil shipments because of disruptions in the Red Sea may escalate global energy transport costs, also affecting oil price dynamics. WTI crude oil traders will pay close attention to a number of key drivers affecting price action. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, most notably the continuing US-Houthi rebel conflict in the Red Sea, are still fueling fears of supply chain disruptions and increasing energy transportation costs. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, intended to support domestic consumption and shore up markets, are providing support to global oil demand. But the upside for WTI may be capped by concerns about a global economic slowdown, driven by President Trump’s renewed protectionist trade policies and import tariffs, which could depress business activity and erode consumer confidence. WTI crude oil is supported by rising Middle East tensions and China’s economic stimulus packages. But Trump’s tariff policies and their effects on world growth might keep further upside in oil prices in check. • WTI crude oil trades at close to $67.30 with elevated geopolitical tensions. • US military strikes against Houthi rebels create supply disruption concerns. • Red Sea unrest adds energy transportation costs, lifting oil prices. • China’s latest stimulus plan for the economy favors crude demand assumptions. • China’s retail sales improve, reflecting robust consumption. • Trump’s shift back to protectionist trade policy is driving global economic worries. • Fears of trade war and inflation risks may cap the upside potential in WTI. WTI crude oil prices are receiving support from increasing geopolitical tensions and positive economic cues from leading global economies. The current conflict in the Middle East, including the US’s military intervention aimed at Houthi rebels in Yemen, has increased the red flag of concerns regarding energy supply routes through the Red Sea. Consequently, global oil markets are responding to the possible interruption of crude transport, and attention has been given to supply security and energy prices. The matter has attracted world attention as oil logistics are increasing in complexity and expense because shipping routes have had to be detoured.  WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from geopolitical issues, China’s new economic policies are providing a bulls’ eye optimism for oil demand. The authorities in China introduced new measures for the enhancement of domestic consumption, as well as the stabilization of the stock market and realty markets. With better retail sales data and growing consumer activity, hopes of greater energy demand from the world’s second-largest economy are serving to underpin market confidence. Still, market participants are being held back by continuing global economic uncertainties, notably resulting from revived trade tensions and policy changes, which continue to inform the wider energy outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is experiencing bullish momentum as it remains above the important psychological level of $67.00. The price action indicates firm buying interest, with short-term resistance possible around the $67.50–$68.00 range, and support at $66.50. A clean break above the resistance level can potentially open the gates for more bullishness, while inability to remain above the support level can see a short-term dip. Volumes and patterns in candlestick will be watched intently by traders to measure the strength of the prevailing trend. FORECAST WTI crude oil has potential for further upside if Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue to rise, particularly with ongoing American military intervention and possible supply interruptions in the Red Sea area. Moreover, China’s economic recovery efforts and robust consumption data could drive optimism over more international oil demand. If these supportive underpinnings continue, WTI prices may try to break above the short-term resistance levels and travel towards higher price levels in the near term. On the flip side, WTI may face downward pressure if global economic concerns intensify, particularly due to President Trump’s protectionist trade policies and their impact on inflation and consumer confidence. A slowdown in global growth could reduce energy demand, leading to a potential pullback in crude prices. Furthermore, any de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a drop in Chinese demand could also weigh on market sentiment and push WTI prices lower.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $66.50 on US Stockpile Build-Up and Trade War Worries

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  • March 6, 2025
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WTI crude prices have declined below $66.50, hitting their lowest level since December 2021, as the increased US crude stockpiles and rising trade tensions dampen sentiment. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles grew by 3.614 million barrels, contrary to market estimates of a drawdown. Moreover, fears of the economic effects of newly imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have also put pressure on oil prices. OPEC+’s move to go ahead with its scheduled production hike from April has also fueled bearish sentiment in the market, triggering concerns of oversupply in the face of softening global demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • The EIA registered a 3.614 million-barrel rise in crude oil inventories, well above market estimates and putting pressure on WTI prices. • Freshly imposed US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada contribute to economic slowdown fears, potentially dampening worldwide crude demand and adding more pressure on prices. • OPEC+ reaffirmed production hikes from April, the first since 2022, sharpening supply fears and pushing WTI lower. • WTI crude touched its lowest since Dec 2021, failing to find traction in bearish fundamentals as traders look to further downside risks. WTI crude prices have fallen below $66.50, weighed down by a bigger-than-anticipated increase in US crude inventories, rising trade tensions, and OPEC+’s move to boost production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US inventories jumped by 3.614 million barrels, sharply different from market expectations of a fall. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the economic effect of fresh US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has caused growing concerns of decreasing demand, further weighing on market sentiment. At the same time, OPEC+ has scheduled its first output increase since 2022, further supporting supply concerns and putting additional pressure on oil prices downwards. With WTI at its lowest level since December 2021, investors are also wary of additional downside risks for the market. WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $66.50 as US crude inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels, more than forecasts. Rising trade tensions and OPEC+’s production hike plan also contribute to bearish pressure, with investors concerned about slowing global demand and supply glut. • Crude oil prices recorded a new low since December 2021 as bearish market sentiment dominated. • EIA indicated a rise in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, significantly higher than market forecasts of a decline. • Imposition of new US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spooked markets with fears of economic slowdown, weighing on oil demand. • OPEC+ plans to boost oil production from April, a first since 2022, putting pressure on supply. • The market had been expected to decline towards a 290,000-barrel drop, but the surprise inventory build triggered a steep price fall. • Technical weakness coupled with deteriorating fundamentals keeps crude oil under pressure from selling. • Market players are keenly monitoring trade trends, supply fundamentals, and economic indicators for future price movements. The recent events in the crude oil market have indeed sent alarmed signals for traders and investors. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) had reported a huge build-up of US crude inventories, with stocks increasing by 3.614 million barrels. This sudden surge has created talks regarding the possibility of oversupply within the market. Furthermore, OPEC+ has made a decision to go ahead with an April production boost, the first such change since 2022. The action is in line with the group’s plan to keep supplies steady in the face of continued economic uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical events, such as recently imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have contributed to the market’s complexity. WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView These tariffs have raised fears of possible economic slowdowns, which would impact worldwide demand for crude oil. Most industries depend on stable trade relationships, and the disruptions caused by tariffs can trigger changes in patterns of production and consumption. Additionally, market players are watching closely policy choices and supply chain shifts that can affect long-term energy demand. As the oil market traverses this transition, eyes are still on critical determinants like world economic performance, geopolitical events, and strategic actions of leading oil-producing countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is under pressure to sell, its price at the lowest since December 2021. The trend in prices is bearish, with the crucial resistance points around $67.00 and $68.50 and immediate support at $65.00. A break below this support level might spark further downside action, building up selling pressure. Moving averages reflect a downward slope, with the price currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to sustained weakness. Also, momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point towards oversold conditions, which might imply short-term consolidation before a direction move. Traders will be observing closely volume trends and any fundamental drivers that might affect price action in the subsequent sessions. FORECAST WTI crude oil prices may witness a possible bounce if market fundamentals favor buyers. Recovery might be seen if US crude inventories report a decrease in subsequent EIA releases, reflecting stronger demand. Moreover, any upbeat news in world trade, for instance, the resolution of tariffs or better-than-expected economic growth projections, may help buoy crude prices. If WTI is able to breach the major resistance levels of $67.00 and $68.50, it might set the stage for a bull run recovery, possibly towards the $70.00 psychological level. In addition, unforeseen supply interruptions or geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing areas can also drive a price rise. WTI is susceptible to additional declines if bearish pressures continue. The sharp increase in US crude stocks, as well as OPEC+ agreeing to boost output from April, contributes to fears of oversupply in the market. If further weakness in demand expectations arises on account of economic uncertainty, especially due to the effects of tariffs on international trade, WTI could persist with the bearish move. A strong break below the support level of $65.00 might exacerbate selling pressure, pushing prices to $63.50 or even lower. Also, technicals indicate crude

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Grapples with Tariff Threats, Economic Woes, and Supply Disruptions

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  • February 28, 2025
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WTI crude oil is under pressure at about $69.90 a barrel as concerns over world economic growth and demand for fuel dwarf supply threats. The market grapples with several headwinds, ranging from the United States imposing a 10% tariff on March 4 for Canadian energy imports, a recession in the United States with Q4 GDP declining to 2.3%, and increasing jobless claims. At the same time, oil prices experienced a short-term boost as President Trump canceled Chevron’s right to do business in Venezuela, potentially upsetting a large section of the country’s oil exports. Furthermore, OPEC+ is considering its production strategy with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, putting the market on its toes as investors wait for crucial economic indicators and policy announcements. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI lags at $69.90 amid economic slowdown concerns and U.S. tariff threats on market sentiment, despite fleeting price spikes. • A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 poses supply disruption risks and the risk of Canadian retaliatory actions. • Trump’s cancellation of Chevron’s Venezuela license puts oil exports at risk, which could influence global supply trends and trigger new talks with PDVSA. • OPEC+ considers its April production plan in the face of new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, creating additional market uncertainty. WTI crude oil continues to struggle, trading at about $69.90 per barrel, as global economic worries and U.S. tariff threats dampen market sentiment. The Biden administration’s move to apply a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 creates supply chain disruption concerns and possible retaliatory measures. In the meantime, oil prices briefly surged after President Trump cancelled Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, an action that would dislocate more than 25% of Venezuela’s oil exports. Contributing to volatility in the markets, OPEC+ still hasn’t decided on its April production plan amidst new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, leaving market players uncertain about forthcoming supply levels. As the U.S. economy is already reflecting slowdown growth and growing jobless claims, investors are now looking forward to the coming PCE price index report, a leading indicator of inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. WTI crude oil trades at $69.90 as economic slowdown concerns, US tariff risks, and supply disruptions hold prices in check. Market volatility is supported by the Chevron-Venezuela license cancellation and OPEC+ policy uncertainty, keeping investors nervous. • WTI remains low around $69.90 per barrel as economic slowdown risks and supply-demand weak fuel burden the market. • The U.S. will slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4, causing concern over supply disruptions and trade tensions. • Trump withdrew Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, putting more than 25% of the nation’s oil exports at risk and affecting global supply. • Q4 GDP growth fell to 2.3%, from 3.1% in Q3, with increasing jobless claims signaling possible weakness in the labor market. • In spite of bearishness, oil prices jumped more than 2% on supply fears after the Chevron-Venezuela news. • OPEC+ remains undecided on its April production plan with new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia adding to market uncertainty. • Traders are waiting for the PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s most important inflation indicator, for clues on possible policy changes. WTI crude oil is increasingly uncertain with geopolitical tensions and policy changes dictating the energy market. The U.S. government’s imposition of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 has created uncertainty around supply chain stability and possible trade wars. At the same time, President Trump’s action to rescind Chevron’s operating license in Venezuela brings even more complexity since it has the potential to blow up a sizable portion of Venezuela’s oil exports. These incidents have put energy traders and market participants waiting closely for further policy announcements and possible long-term effect on world oil dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the same time, OPEC+ is considering its April production plan against the backdrop of continued geopolitical changes and new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The organization has a tricky balancing act to perform between keeping production steady and reacting to possible supply disruptions. Concerns about economic growth, inflationary pressures, and labor market developments also continue to shape investor attitudes. While policymakers and businesspeople confront these difficulties, the issue is how the world’s energy policies will change to accommodate new economic and political realities. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is at present trading just below the $70.00 psychological level, with resistance near $71.50 and support near $68.50. The price continues to trade below major moving averages, which reflects bearish short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands just above the neutral zone, indicating indecisiveness from traders. A breakout above $71.50 might indicate further upside potential, and a fall below $68.50 can result in sustained losses. Volume analysis indicates diminishing buying interest, supporting the bearish mood in the market. Traders are observing closely for confirmation of a breakout or consolidation. FORECAST WTI crude oil is able to remain above the $70.00 level and breaches the crucial resistance at $71.50, it may initiate a bullish trend. A consistent rally above this level might force prices towards the next resistance at $73.00, where the buying interest may take even more control. Furthermore, if OPEC+ chooses to cut or keep output steady, supply worries might intensify and push prices upward. Upbeat economic news, softening inflation, or a recovery in worldwide fuel demand could also underpin a near-term crude oil price uptrend.  WTI cannot hold the $70.00 mark and goes below $68.50, selling pressure can increase, and prices can move towards the next support level at $66.00. Increasing worries about world economic growth, soft demand signals, and the effect of U.S. tariffs on oil imports may also pressure oil prices further. Further, any surprising rise in crude oil stocks or a firm U.S. currency could contribute to bearishness, raising the probability of a more acute fall in WTI prices.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Stuck at $72 on US-China Trade War and Iran Supply Risks

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  • February 5, 2025
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WTI crude oil trades near $72 per barrel as it struggles on US-China trade tensions and the rising supply risks from Iran. The market has apparently downplayed the impact of the trade war even after China announced new tariffs on US imports of crude oil and LNG. However, oil prices remain under pressure after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist as US President Donald Trump reinstates his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to cut its oil exports to zero. With OPEC+ maintaining its gradual production increase plans, oil prices may experience further volatility in the coming sessions. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI crude remains close to $72. US-China tensions and growing US crude oil stockpiles add pressure. • China sets fresh tariffs on imports of US crude, LNG, and other supplies, injecting volatility into the already uncertain global demand for oil. • The maximum pressure campaign waged by Trump on Iran to try to drive exports to zero further tightens supply and feeds geo-political tension. • OPEC+ reiterates its gradual increase in production policy, taking away the EIA from its monitoring sources, thereby changing the dynamics of future oil supply expectations. WTI crude oil stays on the back foot at $72 per barrel as market players digest the impact of US-China trade tensions, the increase in US crude inventories, and the geopolitical risks in Iran. The new tariffs China imposed on US imports of crude and LNG introduce uncertainty to global demand. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles are building for the third consecutive week according to the American Petroleum Institute. In other news, US President Donald Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign targets zeroing Iran’s oil exports, a development that would fuel geopolitical tensions, which can be a potential risk to supply dynamics. Furthermore, OPEC+ reaffirms its gradual increase strategy of production and removes the US Energy Information Administration from the monitoring sources in its move further into the future shaping of oil price trends. WTI crude oil remains near $72 as US-China trade tensions, rising US crude inventories, and Iran-related supply risks weigh on market sentiment. China’s new tariffs on US crude add uncertainty, while Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran fuels geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, OPEC+ sticks to its gradual production increase strategy, influencing future oil prices. • Crude oil could not take momentum with cautious market sentiment on geopolitics and economy. • New tariffs on Chinese imports of U.S. crude and LNG continue to put more pressure on oil demand globally • Renewed “maximum pressure” campaign to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero from Donald Trump further escalate geopolitical risks. • API: +5.025 million bbl increase in U.S. crude stock which will heighten concerns about the potential for an oversupply buildup. • Oil traders seem to downplay the immediate impact of new tariffs on demand. • OPEC+ confirms its plan to increase oil output gradually and removes the EIA from its monitoring sources. • WTI prices are unstable due to supply and demand factors. WTI crude oil prices remain near $72 per barrel as global markets react to a mix of trade tensions, supply risks, and inventory build-ups. This week, China issued newly imposed tariffs on US crude and imports of LNG, raising concerns over weak demand, but the market seems to play down at least its short-term impact. Meanwhile, American Petroleum Institute (API) report shows a significant increase of 5.025 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, its third straight weekly rise and nurturing fears of oversupply. A weak rebound after posting a 3% decline just the previous days still leaves oil prices in state of flux today as traders play out these dual dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Adding in geopolitics’ role, meanwhile, US President Donald Trump rolled back his pressure campaign to ensure Iran’s exports go to zero. This would knock off about 1.5 million barrels daily from global supplies, adding further uncertainty to the oil markets. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ has reaffirmed its plan for a gradual resumption of increasing oil production alongside removing the United States Energy Information Administration from their list of monitored sources. Together with the mixed geopolitical developments going on and uncertain market sentiment, WTI crude prices may not be spared additional volatility in trading sessions ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is still under bearish pressure as it fails to stay above the $72 level. The price has been trading below key moving averages, which indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are showing signs of a bearish crossover, which means further downside risk. RSI is still close to the oversold zone, which would mean that there is a possibility of having consolidation or a minor bounce before it embarks on another leg down. The support areas are near $71.50 and $70.00, whereas resistance is located around $73.50 and $75.00. A stronger break through support will add to pressure selling, whereas breaking above resistance may lead to a short-term recovery. FORECAST WTI crude oil may rebound if market sentiment changes due to geopolitical supply risks or an improved global demand outlook. A strong push above the $73.50 resistance level may trigger fresh buying momentum, with the next key targets around $75.00 and $76.50. Any unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ or escalating tensions in the Middle East could further support prices. Additionally, if the US and China take steps to ease trade tensions or undertake economic stimulus measures, oil demand expectations may improve with a rise to their advantage in increasing WTI prices. Confirmation of a recovery trend can be elicited from technical indicators like RSI and MACD turning into bullish. On the downside, WTI crude oil has susceptibility to further declines especially as global demand deteriorates due to sustained US-China trade tensions. A sustained break below the $71.50 support level could result in a deeper correction, with key downside targets at $70.00 and $68.50. The

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