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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Dips Below $62 as Trump-Zelenskiy Talks and Geopolitical Developments Loom

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  • August 18, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped below $62.00 during Monday’s Asian session, trading at about $61.80 as investors took a wait-and-see stance before US President Donald Trump meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump indicated he would push Zelenskiy to agree a rapid peace treaty with Russia, which may involve Ukraine giving up territory, that would transform the geopolitics and energy landscape. Investors also await possible US-Russian cooperation over Arctic oil drilling, which would unlock immense untapped oil and gas reserves. Additionally, anticipation for September Federal Reserve rate-cut continues to impact dollar dynamics and oil sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets look for clarity on whether the US is putting pressure on Ukraine towards a speedy peace agreement with Russia, possibly reshaping geopolitical risk. • Any escalation or ceasefire could have a direct impact on WTI prices, with peace negotiations likely bearing down on oil and tensions providing support. • Speculation over shared drilling efforts in the Arctic can fundamentally transform global supply dynamics. • Increasing hopes of a September rate cut might soften the US Dollar, possibly boosting USD-denominated commodities such as crude oil. WTI crude oil prices retreated below $62.00 in Monday’s Asian session as speculators became risk-averse in anticipation of the highly awaited summit between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump’s comments that Ukraine might end the war within a short time by giving away territory to Russia put extra pressure on the market, while speculation over potential US-Russia cooperation in the energy field in the Arctic increased fears of future oil supply. Meanwhile, expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September are driving currency markets, as a softer US Dollar has the potential to offer some support to crude prices. WTI crude fell below $62.00 as market players waited for the result of Trump-Zelenskiy negotiations, with geopolitical uncertainty keeping sentiment down. Suggestons of US-Russia cooperation in the Arctic energy sphere and prospects for Fed rate cuts contributed to oil market uncertainty. • WTI crude falls below $62.00, last trading around $61.80 during Monday’s Asian session. • Market players take wait-and-see approach before Trump-Zelenskiy meeting that can determine the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war. • Trump indicates bid for rapid peace agreement, potentially with Ukraine giving up land to Russia. • Geopolitical tensions remain paramount, and a hike is likely to underpin oil prices, whereas a ceasefire might put pressure on them downward. • Speculation mounts regarding US-Russia collaboration on Arctic drilling, which might tap into huge untapped reserves of oil and gas. • Bank of America issues warning of a possible energy bear market if Arctic resources are tapped on a massive scale. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut increase, with a 93% probability of a September cut, providing support for dollar-denominated commodities. WTI crude oil remains in the limelight as world traders focus on Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump has indicated he will press for a swift resolution to the war, even suggesting that Ukraine could end the conflict by conceding territory to Russia. This has heightened anticipation around the talks, as any outcome could reshape not only the geopolitical landscape but also influence how markets perceive stability in the region. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Outside of the immediate confrontation, eyes are also focused on the longer-term implications of possible US-Russian cooperation on Arctic oil and gas reserves. They have been reported to be capable of unlocking major deposits of oil and natural gas, fueling a debate over future global energy policies. Simultaneously, changes in US monetary policy are under the spotlight, with speculations that the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates during September, a step that can indirectly influence commodity prices by impacting the US Dollar strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil comes under pressure after it fell below the $62.00 level, and the immediate support remains around the $61.50–61.30 region where buyers might try to hold ground. A decisive fall below this level would open the way towards the $60.80–60.50 zone. To the upside, initial resistance is clustered around $62.50, with a more significant barrier near $63.20, where prolonged purchasing energy would be needed to validate the comeback. Momentum indicators are currently leaning cautiously bearish, indicating that traders are waiting for decisive signals from geopolitical events before taking significant positions. FORECAST If the Trump-Zelenskiy summit does not bring about progress or portends more geopolitical tensions, WTI prices may receive solid support as investors turn to energy assets for a safe haven. Progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict or indications of greater US-Russia cooperation in Arctic energy projects would contribute to uncertainty in the markets, imposing upward pressure on crude. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts may also undermine the US Dollar, which would make oil more appealing to foreign consumers and serve to drive prices higher. Conversely, any development in peace talks that is directed towards a ceasefire or concessions over territory has the potential to alleviate geopolitical risk premiums, pulling WTI prices down. Increased rumors of massive US-Russia energy collaboration in the Arctic similarly pose the threat of increasing future oil supply, and this has a bearish tone for the medium term. If all this comes together with relaxing market fears, WTI has the potential to stay under selling pressure in the near term.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $63 as EIA Forecasts Record US Production, Increased Supply Weighs on Prices

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  • August 13, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell below $63 on Tuesday as the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest report forecasted record US production and increasing global supply. The EIA now expects US crude output to peak near 13.6 million barrels per day by December 2025, with global inventories building by an average of 2 million bpd through early 2026. Coupled with easing OPEC+ quota restrictions and potential progress toward a US-brokered Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, market sentiment has turned bearish, keeping WTI prices trapped in a consolidation range between $62 and $64, well below the 200-day EMA. KEY LOOKOUTS • Crude fell below $63, between $62–$64 on soft buying pressure. • US crude output to rise to a high of 13.6 million bpd by December 2025. • Stockpiles to increase by 2 million bpd during Q4 2025–Q1 2026, with Brent to ease to $50 by early 2026. • Any US-facilitated Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations may also put additional pressure on crude prices. Crude prices dipped on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling below the $63 threshold as supply pressures push down on sentiment. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) revised forecast puts US crude output at a record 13.6 million bpd in December 2025, as global inventories are anticipated to increase by an average of 2 million bpd by early 2026. The combination with the lifting of OPEC+ quota constraints and continuing geopolitics for a potential US-mediated Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has maintained WTI within a tight consolidation band at $62-$64, well below its 200-day EMA. WTI crude dropped below $63 on Tuesday as the EIA estimated record US production and increasing global stockpiles through early 2026. Weakening OPEC+ curbs and likely Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations also pushed prices lower, confining WTI to a $62–$64 consolidation range. • WTI crude dropped below $63, ranging in a $62–$64 consolidation base. • EIA estimates US crude production reaching a record 13.6 million bpd by December of 2025. • Global crude stockpiles poised to increase by 2 million bpd over Q1 2026. • Brent crude prices seen falling to $50 per barrel by 2026. • Supply growth fueled by more wells and rising US drilling activity. • Relaxation of OPEC+ quota curbs further adding to global supply pressure. • Speculative possibility of US-brokered Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions shaping market sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices were in bearish pressure on Tuesday after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its new Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency now sees US crude production reaching an all-time high of 13.6 million barrels per day by December 2025, backed by higher drilling activity and climbing well counts. Global supply is also expected to grow, with inventories increasing by an average of 2 million barrels per day up until late 2025 and early 2026. Easing OPEC+ production restraint is also expected by the EIA to add to the increasing supply surplus in the market. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events are also influencing attitudes, with US President Donald Trump playing a role as the prime broker in prospective Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. Although an immediate solution is unlikely, the potential for a breakthrough has contributed to the market’s conservative view. While energy traders consider the implications of increasing production, as well as possible changes in global political alignments, the wider oil market will be keeping an eye on production trends, diplomatic talks, and OPEC+ policy actions that will potentially shape supply conditions up to 2026. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude is consolidating in a tight range between $62 and $64, still below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) situated around $67.50. Bearish momentum is subdued, with sellers thus far failing to break below the essential $60 support, while the conviction of buyers to fuel a lasting reversal is missing. Such range-bound activity portends that a conclusive breakout in either direction is bound to take a new fundamental impetus, for example, a major supply disruption or a change in policy by OPEC+. FORECAST Forward-looking, WTI crude oil prices can expect to remain under downward pressure if US output consistently increases as expected and global stockpiles increase further. The loosening of OPEC+ quota restraints alongside rising supply from US shale can keep near-term price increases contained. Furthermore, any steps toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire can put downward pressure on prices by reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Yet prices would bounce if there are unforeseen supply shocks, like renewed geopolitical tensions or curtailment of production by key oil producers. Additionally, greater-than-anticipated global demand or any slowdown in US drilling activity would tighten supply and help reverse the price back over $64–$65. Traders will be looking closely at coming inventory reports, OPEC+ actions, and geopolitics for indications of the next move.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls to $65.50 on Growing Trade Tensions and Weakening Supply Worries

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  • July 22, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continued their third consecutive session of losses, falling to about $65.50 due to growing global trade tensions and weakening supply worries. Market sentiment remains subdued as investors wait for news of US-EU trade talks in the lead-up to President Trump’s impending August 1 tariff deadline. The prospect of new tariffs and EU retaliation has added to fears of global demand. In the meantime, the signing of a $8 billion refinery accord between Indonesia and KBR Inc., increasing oil exports out of Saudi Arabia, and reducing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions have also weighed on oil prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets wait to see developments before the August 1 tariff target date imposed by President Trump, potentially affecting worldwide oil demand. • The $8 billion deal can affect US tariff policy and alter regional supply balances. • Rising production from big producers such as Saudi Arabia puts downward pressure on oil prices. • The Israel-Iran ceasefire and revived nuclear talks with Europe decrease geopolitical risk and supply interruptions. WTI crude oil prices sank to almost $65.50 as sustained trade tensions between the US and EU continue to fuel worries about slowing global demand. The markets are closely watching developments prior to President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline, which may prompt retaliatory actions by the European bloc. Furthermore, relaxing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and increasing production by major producers such as Saudi Arabia are also fueling oversupply concerns. Recent $8 billion refinery agreement between Indonesia’s Danantara and US-based KBR Inc. also contributed to lower proposed US tariffs, further influencing market sentiment. WTI crude oil falls to approximately $65.50 in response to growing US-EU trade tensions and abating supply worries. Traders are tentative ahead of the August 1 tariff, while increasing Saudi exports and lower geopolitical risks contribute to the price pressure downwards. • WTI crude oil falls to $65.50, its third straight session of decline. • US-EU trade tensions rise, with President Trump signaling 30% tariffs on EU imports. • Investors look for news on trade talks ahead of the August 1 deadline. • Indonesia signs an $8 billion contract with KBR Inc. to construct 17 modular refineries, affecting tariff realignments. • Saudi oil exports surge to a three-month high, exacerbating supply pressure. • Israel-Iran ceasefire and revived nuclear talks with Europe alleviate Middle East geopolitical tensions. •  Demand prospects falter, as oversupply worries and uncertainty of trade encumber market sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is struggling as tensions in international trade create apprehensions regarding future energy demand. The oil market keeps its close eye on any development between the United States and the European Union, particularly as President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline draws near. The threat of a 30% tariff on EU exports has led to the European bloc looking to retaliate, creating uncertainty in the global trade environment. This has resulted in investors becoming more risk-averse, as ongoing trade tensions between large economies could affect industrial production and fuel consumption globally. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Beyond the trade uncertainty, geopolitical concerns are also dictating the oil market narrative. Indonesia’s Danantara sovereign fund is pushing ahead with a large $8 billion refinery venture in association with U.S.-based KBR Inc., a development that has prompted a drop in planned U.S. tariff rates. At the same time, pressures on oil supplies are building, with Saudi Arabia posting its three-month high export levels. Middle East tensions have eased somewhat after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and Iran has indicated it intends to reopen nuclear talks with European states with an eye to reinstating the 2015 agreement and minimizing the chances of resumption of sanctions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is showing a distinct bearish trend after it broke below critical support levels and now trades around $65.50. The price remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to continuation of the downtrend. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate that the commodity is close to oversold levels, but not yet indicating a reversal. Unless buying interest picks up strongly or positive geopolitical news arises, WTI can still probe lower support levels around $64.50 and $63.00 in the immediate term. FORECAST WTI crude oil might get some support if negotiations on trade between the EU and the US turn in its favor, alleviating concerns of slowing demand. A concluded agreement or postponement of threatened tariffs would also revive some investor sentiment and push prices higher. Furthermore, any sudden supply disruptions—by way of geopolitical tensions or OPEC+ cuts—would give impetus to the upside, sending prices back into the $68–$70 range in the near term. On the negative side, if trade tensions worsen or no agreement is met before the August 1 deadline, oil demand prospects could decline sharply, putting downward pressure on prices. Increased production from key producers such as Saudi Arabia and the softening of tensions in the Middle East are also driving a market oversupply. If this trend continues, WTI may experience losses further, potentially falling below $64, with the next significant support at $62.50.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $67.50 As Saudi Output Rises and Tariff Tensions Rise

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  • July 14, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil retreated below $67.50 a barrel during Asian trading hours on Monday, reversing some of the gains made in the previous session. The decline follows increased oil production from Saudi Arabia that reportedly produced more than OPEC+ targets, as well as increased global trade tensions triggered by U.S. tariff announcements. Whereas Chinese trade figures indicated some improvement that may provide limited support for oil demand, the overall mood is still subdued as traders prepare for the possibility of U.S. sanctions on Russia and its effect on global supply. KEY LOOKOUTS • Saudi Arabia pumped more than its OPEC+ quota by 430,000 bpd in June, creating market anxiety for oversupply, according to the IEA. • U.S. President Trump has indicated new tariffs on the EU and Mexico, which may cap global oil demand and increase market uncertainty. • Projected new sanctions could make global oil supply tighter, placing short-term volatility on prices. • Better Chinese export and import data could temper support to oil prices, considering China’s status as the world’s largest crude importer. WTI crude fell below $67.50 per barrel as growing supply concerns and revived trade tensions dragged down market sentiment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Saudi Arabia overshot its June output target by 430,000 barrels per day, fueling oversupply fears even as the kingdom stated it was sticking to OPEC+ commitments. Concurrently, rising U.S. tariff actions, such as additional tariffs on EU and Mexican imports, fueled worries of a softening in global oil demand. Although better-than-expected Chinese trade figures provided some support, the overall picture is unclear with traders looking for developments, especially on prospective U.S. sanctions against Russian oil. WTI crude oil dropped below $67.50 as increasing Saudi output and fresh U.S. tariff tensions kept pressure on prices. Traders are wary with expectations of new U.S. sanctions against Russia, while better Chinese trade data provides limited support. • WTI crude oil dropped below $67.50 during Asian sessions after increasing more than 2.5% in the last session. • Saudi Arabia surpassed its OPEC+ production target by 430,000 barrels per day in June to 9.8 million bpd. • IEA report evokes concerns of oversupply, notwithstanding Saudi Arabia’s insistence of sticking to its voluntary production cut quota. • U.S. President Trump imposed a 30% tariff on EU and Mexico imports from August 1, ratcheting up trade tensions. • Imposed tariff rate increases to 15%-20% from the existing 10% would potentially affect international oil demand. • China trade statistics improved, with exports up 7.2% and imports up 2.3% YoY in June. • Markets look forward to possible new U.S. sanctions against Russia, which can affect international oil supply and price. The recent decline in WTI crude oil prices represents a combination of geopolitical and supply-side events influencing global energy market conditions. Saudi Arabia’s oil production is among the main drivers, as it apparently overproduced its OPEC+ quota last month, fueling fears of accelerating global supply. While Saudi officials insisted that they met their voluntary target, the market reaction has been cautious. This has compounded prevailing worry regarding world oil balances, particularly at a time when uncertainty surrounding demand hangs in the balance amid wider economic pressures. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, tensions in trade keep rising, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on Mexican and EU imports, effective August 1. He also suggested raising blanket tariffs on other trading partners to 15%-20%, and economic stress fears are increasing. This might take a toll on global trade flows and manufacturing production, and then indirectly on energy consumption. But enhanced trade figures from China, the world’s largest oil importer, presents a silver lining and indicates islands of strength in the world economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil tested resistance around $69.50 before dropping below $67.50, which represents a short-term bearish reversal. The price also could not hold above the 50-day moving average, which means deteriorating bullish momentum. Level support is currently visible in the region of $66.80–$68.50, and a break below this level may lead to further declines towards $65.20. Supportively, short-term resistance is in the area of $68.20, and a significant breakout above this level can lead to a retest of the $69.50–$70.00 zone. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD are indicating consolidation, reflecting a guarded market sentiment. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions spike—especially with possible U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports—WTI prices might experience fresh upside pressure. Any supply disruptions from major producers, coupled with consistent demand from major buyers such as China, might assist in propelling prices back to the $69.50–$70.00 resistance level. Favorable news in global trade talks, particularly if the EU and U.S. agree, might improve overall sentiment and assist in a recovery in oil prices. Downside risks, however, include persistent overproduction from Saudi Arabia or other OPEC+ nations that would further raise the threat of oversupply and keep WTI prices weighed down. Moreover, if global trade tensions further escalate—especially with the imposition of wider U.S. tariffs—anxiety about a decline in global economic activity could dampen oil demand. In such circumstances, WTI may fall towards the $66.00 or even $65.00 support levels in the near term.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Fights Near $66 as Trump’s Tariff Expiration Date Threatens International Demand Prospect

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  • July 4, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hovers with caution at around $66.00 as the market remains in suspense before the July 9 tariff deadline announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. With Trump assuring not to extend the deadline for those countries who are not able to agree on a trade deal with Washington, threats of retaliatory tariffs hang over global trade and energy demand. While the U.S. managed to conclude deals with the UK, Vietnam, and Canada-China framework, uncertainty over other important partners such as the Eurozone, Japan, and Canada continues to put pressure on oil markets. Also, robust U.S. jobs data have decreased prospects of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, further capping oil price upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention is still on President Trump’s order to apply tariffs to countries that do not have trade agreements, which may weaken global oil demand. • Success or collapse in talks with large economies such as India, the Eurozone, Japan, and Canada will have a major impact on market mood. •  Weaker market bets on a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, following strong NFP data, may limit WTI’s upside. • Concerns over global trade disruptions continue to cloud the outlook for energy consumption and future oil price stability. WTI crude oil prices are hovering around the $66.00 mark as markets react cautiously to the looming July 9 tariff deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. With Trump insisting that nations that cannot close trade agreements will receive no extensions, investors are growing more worried about the possible effect of back-and-forth tariffs on worldwide trade and oil consumption. Although agreements with the UK and Vietnam have been completed and a framework with China has been reached, doubt surrounding agreements with large partners such as India, Japan, and the Eurozone keeps the market in suspense. In addition, disappointing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate reduction—sparked by better-than-forecast U.S. jobs data—have further hindered crude’s short-term bounce prospects. WTI crude oil trades cautiously at $66 as markets watch how the July 9 tariff deadline will play out with Trump. Fears of weaker global demand and lower Fed rate cut hopes are curtailing price momentum. Investors continue to watch trade developments with major global trading partners. • WTI crude oil trades close to $66 in the context of careful market sentiment. • Trump reaffirms there is no extension of the July 9 tariff deadline on unexpired trade agreements. • Threats of tariffs cast doubts about global trade disruption and energy demand. • Trade agreements concluded with UK, Vietnam, and an outline with China. • Uncertainty still hangs about deals with India, Japan, Eurozone, Canada, and Mexico. • More resilient U.S. NFP data lowers the chances of a Fed rate cut in July. • Oil price potential capped as global demand outlook is still under pressure. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading cautiously because market participants closely follow the soon-to-be-exceeded July 9 tariff deadline announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. His assurance that there will not be an extension of this deadline has increased the fear of an escalation in trade tensions. Investors are most concerned with how retaliatory tariffs affect the pattern of global trade flows, potentially destabilizing the economy and, indirectly, energy consumption. While the U.S. has attained trade deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam and achieved a framework agreement with China, having no agreed deals with other large economies such as the Eurozone, Japan, Canada, and India is also fuelling market uncertainty. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from the trade issues, the spotlight has been pointed towards the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy environment. The stronger-than-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls release has prompted investors to dial down forecasts for a rate cut during the next policy session. This monetary policy change of heart has instigated a cautious environment among investors. As geopolitical and economic considerations remain the chief news-makers, the overall market is paying attention to how world leaders will manage the fine line of trade relationships in the days ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is resisting at the $66.50 level, with buyers still failing to maintain their upticks over this range. The rebound from the weekly low of $64.00 indicates modest bullish interest but is tempered by failure to sustain buying, suggesting caution in the face of overall market uncertainties. Support is currently at $64.00, and a breach below this area could leave WTI vulnerable to further declines towards the zone of $62.80. On the positive side, a decisive breakout above $66.50 would set the stage for a challenge of the $68.00 level, but the broader trend is susceptible to trade and monetary policy-related fundamental headlines. FORECAST If the tensions in trade are reduced with successful last-minute agreements between the U.S. and leading partners such as India or Japan, WTI crude may get bullish traction. A break above the $66.50 resistance level could see a slow run-up towards $68.00 and even $69.20. Favorable geopolitical events or surprise supply disruptions may also enhance the up move, provided market sentiment picks up and global demand worries abate. On the negative, a failure to negotiate further trade agreements by the July 9 deadline could spur a wave of retaliatory tariffs, sapping global economic optimism and pulling oil prices down. A breach of the $64.00 support level may set the stage for a fall to $62.80 and maybe even $61.50. Further cuts in Fed rate cut hopes and better U.S. dollar performance might also bear down on oil, keeping WTI in sustained pressure.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Drops on Iran Missile Attacks: Geopolitical Shock Unable to Maintain Rally

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  • June 23, 2025
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WTI Crude Oil saw intense volatility as word reached markets that Iran had launched missiles against US bases in Qatar, threatening to ignite a wider Middle East war. Prices surged to $76.74 initially as markets responded to possible risks to global oil supply, especially through the critical Strait of Hormuz. But since no meaningful damage or further escalation ensued, the market reverted swiftly, profit-taking fueling prices back down to around $70.80. Even though the intraday drama ensued, the absence of concrete supply disruption prompted a re-evaluation, leaving crude oil susceptible to further losses in the face of continued geopolitical unpredictability. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any established disruption of oil transit via this key passage has the potential to induce renewed buying demand and price spikes. • Either side’s future military retaliation or escalation can quickly change market sentiment. • Keep an eye on the $69.98 and $68.42 support levels; a break might be a sign of stronger bear momentum. • Ongoing lack of actual supply disruption could continue to hold oil prices in check despite geopolitical chatter. WTI Crude Oil was hit with high-intraday volatility as word of Iran firing missiles at US bases in Qatar spooked markets, sending prices to a multi-month high of $76.74. The early rally was led by concerns that heightening tensions could interfere with oil shipments across the Strait of Hormuz. But with no reported damage and subsequent attacks, optimism rapidly dissipated, triggering a surge of profit-taking that pulled prices down to just over $70.80. This dramatic about-face highlights how sensitive the oil market is to geopolitical events, but also how much traders prefer concrete supply threats over speculative anxiety. WTI Crude Oil surged on reports of Iranian missile strikes but quickly reversed as fears of supply disruption faded. Prices dropped nearly 5% from their peak, settling near $70.80 amid profit-taking and easing tensions. Traders remain alert to any further escalation in the Gulf region. • WTI Crude surged to $76.74 following reports of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar. • Disruption fears for oil passage via the Strait of Hormuz first triggered the rally. • No reported damage or escalation resulted in quick profit-taking and an abrupt reversal in prices. • Prices declined close to 5%, settling at about $70.80 at the session’s end. • Technical momentum shifted bearish, with important support now targeted at levels of $69.98 and $68.42. • RSI fell to 63, showing weakening overbought levels and increasing downside pressure. • Market is still guarded, waiting to see any additional military response or shipping interference. WTI Crude Oil experienced increased volatility following news that Iran fired missiles at US military installations in Qatar, fueling concern of an expanded Middle East war. The news followed weekend bombing raids on Iranian nuclear facilities by US troops that drove regional tensions to a boil. Traders acted fast, wagering on a possible supply shock that might affect oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic bottleneck for almost 20% of global crude exports. The initial market response indicated alarm over the vulnerability of peace in the Gulf and a risk of a broader military conflict. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of the sensationalized headlines, the market stabilized as nothing consequential damage or escalation ensued from the missile attack. This soothed market nerves and led to a revision of the geopolitical risk premium. Although the episode highlights the continued risk of global oil markets to political turmoil in the region, traders do not yet seem to be rushing to capitalize on the situation. Meanwhile, the attention is on watching for diplomatic reactions and indications of retaliation, which may once more inject volatility in the energy market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil experienced a swift rejection at the $76.74 level and was unable to hold above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April slide at $74.11. The subsequent decline below the psychological $72.00 level reversed short-term momentum to the bears. Prices are currently sitting just above the 61.8% retracement level at $69.98, which is now immediate support. A slide below this may expose the 200-day Simple Moving Average at $68.42 and the 50% retracement around $67.08. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also retreated to 63, indicating dwindling bullish momentum and a potential shift towards further bear pressure in the absence of any bullish drivers. FORECAST In the event that further heightening of geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US—particularly with respect to direct attacks on US properties or interruptions of oil shipping channels within the Gulf—cause WTI Crude prices to experience renewed bullish pressure, a clear breakout above $74.00 can set the stage for a retest of the $76.74 high, with chances to test the $78.00–$80.00 band if fear in the market worsens and supply threats become more concrete. On the negative side, if this situation is to remain contained without additional military involvement or supply disruption, WTI could still move lower as traders shed risk premiums. A fall below the crucial $69.98 support could leave the door ajar towards the 200-day SMA at $68.42, and the $67.00 level subsequently. Poor economic fundamentals or firmer U.S. Dollar underpinnings could also see further price softness in subsequent sessions.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Remains Near $73 as Strait of Hormuz Geopolitics Increases Supply Disruption Concern

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  • June 18, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading near $73.00 after dipping from recent peaks, with risks to the downside seeming minimal owing to growing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Increased concerns of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil travels, are buoying oil prices. The tensions ran hotter after the previous President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and America escalated its military build-up in the region. In the meantime, markets look to the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week, but potential cuts later in the year as fears of global growth worsen. KEY LOOKOUTS • Heightened conflict among the U.S., Iran, and Israel could result in possible supply disruptions via the critical Strait of Hormuz. • Former President Trump’s demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and heightened U.S. military operations could exacerbate market volatility further. • The Fed is likely to maintain rates at 4.25%-4.50%, but subsequent cuts in September or even July are still in the spotlight. • Even though there have been recent pullbacks, supply worries and geopolitical tensions can curtail downside action in WTI prices around the $73.00 level. WTI crude oil prices are still bearish around the $73.00 handle after surrendering some of the sharp advances on Tuesday, fueled by the renewed specter of supply interference in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping channel for global oil exports. Geopolitical tensions have heightened after former President Donald Trump’s call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and news of heightened U.S. military deployments within the region. The prospect of an expanded conflict between Israel and Iran is fueling the anxiety in the market. In the meantime, focus turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s forthcoming rate decision, with investors keen to see cues regarding the timing of potential interest rate reductions later this year. WTI crude oil fluctuates at $73.00 as supply fears from the Strait of Hormuz cap losses. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and U.S. military actions fuel market fear, as investors wait for the Fed’s interest rate move. • WTI crude oil trades at around $73.00, pulling back slightly after a 5% rise led by supply fears. • Strait of Hormuz tensions flare, with concerns of interrupted global oil flow through the critical chokepoint. • Ex-President Trump demands Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, heightening geopolitical uncertainty. • U.S. sends additional fighter jets, further buttressing its presence in the Middle East in rising tensions. • Israel can step up military activity against Iran, further increasing regional instability. • The Fed is likely to keep rates at 4.25%-4.50% in its next meeting. • Markets factor in expected rate cuts by September or sooner, as global growth fears return. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is still in the limelight as tensions geopropolitically in the Middle East continue to escalate. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” along with heightened U.S. military deployment across the region, has further raised fears of possible conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries almost one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, is central to these fears, as any disruption would have a serious impact on international supply chains. With Iran said to be making overtures to neighboring nations to garner diplomatic support, the situation remains unstable and closely monitored by international markets. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, market participants are focusing on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Even though rates are universally predicted to stay flat in the short term, speculation is building on next policy steps, especially in reaction to diminishing global economic momentum. Analysts propose that sustained geopolitical uncertainties, combined with dimmed growth projections, may be enough to get the Fed to act prematurely. This combination of global stress and monetary policy uncertainty is having energy markets nervous, with investors considering both supply risk and economic indicators. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is consolidating around the $73.00 level following a steep rally in the last session. The price is just above its near-term support area, and any substantial advance beyond the $74.00 level could set the stage for a test of the $76.00 resistance. On the negative side, the initial support is around $71.50, followed by a firmer floor at $70.00. Momentum oscillators such as the RSI are neutral to weakly bullish, hinting at consolidation with a potential upside bias if geopolitical tensions continue to simmer and buying interest returns. FORECAST WTI crude oil could experience fresh upside strength if tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Any confrontation or interference in oil shipping channels might spark a sudden surge in oil prices, which could lead WTI to the $76.00–$78.00 level. Secondarily, if the U.S. Federal Reserve hints at dovish policy adjustments or rate cuts earlier than anticipated, that might destabilize the dollar and prop up commodity prices, including crude. On the negative side, WTI would risk pressure if diplomatic measures relieve tensions between Iran and America, or if transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains unobstructed. Additionally, should global economic metrics continue to decline without proper stimulus, fear of diminished oil demand would send prices south. Under these circumstances, WTI would retest the levels around $71.50 and even move down towards the psychological $70.00 level.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Surges Above $64 on US-China Trade Optimism and Improved US Business Sentiment

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  • June 10, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have extended their rally above the $64.00 mark, driven by renewed optimism over ongoing US-China trade talks in London and improved business sentiment in the United States. Positive comments from US officials, including President Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick, have boosted market confidence, reinforcing hopes for stronger global demand. Additionally, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index for May surpassed expectations, indicating a healthier outlook for energy consumption. Traders now await the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly stockpile report, which could further influence price direction depending on whether it signals tightening or expanding supply. KEY LOOKOUTS • Continued negotiations between the world’s two largest economies remain a major driver for oil prices. Any breakthroughs or setbacks could significantly sway market sentiment and demand forecasts. • The upcoming API report is expected to show a 0.7 million barrel increase. A surprise drawdown could support further gains in WTI, while a larger-than-expected build may pressure prices lower. • WTI is approaching the key resistance level of $65.00, with the 100-day SMA near $66.00. The RSI at 61 reflects continued bullish momentum, but traders should watch for signs of overbought conditions. • On the downside, failure to hold above $64.00 could invite selling pressure, with technical support seen near the 20-day Simple Moving Average around $62.00. WTI crude oil prices remain in focus as markets monitor several key factors influencing the current rally. The ongoing US-China trade talks in London have lifted global demand expectations, providing strong upward momentum to oil prices. Traders are closely watching the $65.00 resistance level, with technical indicators like the RSI suggesting continued bullish sentiment. In the meantime, focus shifts to the next API crude stockpile report that may either solidify the rally or send the market into a pullback based on inventory patterns. To the downside, $64.00 represents prompt support, with deeper support nearby the 20-day SMA at $62.00 should bearish pressure mount. WTI crude oil continues to trade above $64.00, supported by optimism around US-China trade talks and improved US business sentiment. Traders now await the API stockpile report and watch the $65.00 resistance level for signs of further upside. • WTI crude oil prices have extended gains above $64.00, marking a fourth consecutive day of upward momentum. • Ongoing US-China trade talks in London are boosting market optimism and improving the global demand outlook. • Positive comments from US officials, including President Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick, have strengthened investor confidence. • The US NFIB Business Optimism Index rose to 98.8 in May, surpassing expectations and signaling increased energy demand. • Traders are closely watching the $65.00 resistance level, with the 100-day SMA near $66.00 as the next potential target. • The API crude oil stockpile report is expected to show a 0.7 million barrel increase, which could influence price direction. • Support is seen at $64.00 and further at $62.00, near the 20-day SMA, in case of a pullback. WTI crude oil prices are gaining momentum as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks continues to build. The ongoing negotiations in London between the two economic powerhouses have improved market sentiment, with both sides signaling progress toward better trade cooperation. Positive remarks from US leaders, including President Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick, have contributed to a brighter outlook for global trade, which in turn supports expectations for stronger energy demand. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the positive tone, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index showed an improvement in May, indicating increased confidence among small businesses. This suggests a healthier economic environment, which typically translates into higher industrial and commercial energy use. As global and domestic demand expectations improve, market participants are keeping a close eye on upcoming developments, including the weekly oil inventory data, for further insight into supply dynamics. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is maintaining its bullish momentum, trading above the key $64.00 level. The current price action suggests strong buying interest, with the next significant resistance seen near the psychological $65.00 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61 on the daily chart, indicating healthy upward momentum without entering overbought territory. If the bullish trend continues, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just below $66.00 could act as the next target. On the downside, $64.00 remains an important support level, followed by the 20-day SMA around $62.00, which could limit any potential pullback. FORECAST WTI crude oil may continue its upward trajectory if positive momentum from the US-China trade talks persists and economic data remains supportive. A successful outcome in the negotiations could boost global demand expectations, further encouraging bullish sentiment in the oil market. If demand outlooks improve and US inventory data shows tighter supply, prices could move toward the $65.00 level and potentially test the 100-day SMA near $66.00 in the near term. On the other hand, if trade discussions face setbacks or if the upcoming API report reveals a larger-than-expected increase in crude stockpiles, WTI prices could come under pressure. A break below the $64.00 mark might trigger selling, with the next support level seen around the 20-day Simple Moving Average at $62.00. Additionally, any signs of slowing economic activity or a drop in business confidence could weaken demand projections, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Steady Before US Jobs Data Amid Easing US-China Trade Tensions

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  • June 6, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices are steady at $62.20 as the market prepares for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, an important indicator that can sway the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Investors are also taking hope from signals of bettering US-China trade relations, after a constructive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. A reduction in trade tensions, particularly with China as the globe’s biggest oil importer, underpins oil prices by increasing optimism on steady global demand. Traders are upbeat but wary, with the next big price catalyst likely to be the upcoming US jobs report. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look to May’s jobs data, which can set the stage for future Fed interest rate action. • Weakness in labor demand could fuel rumors of rate cuts, boosting commodity prices such as oil. • A positive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi helps ease tensions, enhancing global oil demand prospects. • WTI crude consolidates around $62.20, as markets exercise caution prior to high-impact data and geopolitical events. WTI oil prices are trading in a stable range of $62.20 as investors have opted for a wait-and-watch game before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The jobs report is likely to provide new clues to the Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and any evidence of softening labor demand could be supporting expectations of dovish policy. In the meantime, oil is underpinned by increasing optimism about US-China trade relations, after a cordial conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Since China is the world’s biggest oil importer, relaxing trade tensions are viewed as a bullish crudes’ demand factor, which assists in stabilizing market sentiment. WTI crude maintains its position close to $62.20 as markets wait for the US NFP reading for indications on Fed policy. Hope of strengthening US-China trade relations is also supporting oil prices. Traders are on guard but optimistic about stability in demand. • WTI crude trades flat at $62.20 during European sessions. • US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May is due at 12:30 GMT. • The NFP release is crucial for shaping expectations on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. •  Weaker labor data may increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, supporting oil prices. • US-China trade tensions show signs of easing after a positive call between Trump and Xi. •  Beijing confirms diplomatic engagement, reflecting efforts to stabilize relations. • Improving US-China ties favor global oil demand, offering fundamental support to WTI. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is flat as markets concentrate on two key worldwide news: the soon-to-be-released US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and indications of enhanced US-China ties. Investors pay particular attention to the NFP report since it will determine the direction that the Federal Reserve takes in subsequent interest rate decisions. A weakening labor market might encourage the Fed to explore more dovish monetary policy, which would normally favor commodity markets such as oil. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Diplomatic developments between the United States and China also support sentiment in the oil market. Recently, a phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, which has been characterized as positive by both parties, generated optimism regarding easing trade tensions. As China is the world’s biggest oil importer, any betteirment in bilateral relations with the US would be viewed as a good sign for the world’s energy demand and market stability. Such geopolitical optimism is contributing to sustaining prices of oil. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is consolidating around the $62.20 mark, showing a period of indecision while traders wait for a breakout catalyst. The price is trading near the important moving averages, indicating a short-term neutral bias. A break above the immediate resistance could set the stage for more advances, and a break below the near support levels could indicate renewed bear pressure. The momentum indicators are fairly flat, which supports the contention that a discerning directional trigger—such as the imminent US NFP data—is required for the next meaningful price move. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates weakening labor market conditions, it may raise market expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. This may have the effect of weakening the US Dollar, which would have the resultant effect of supporting crude oil prices indirectly. Moreover, if the improving sentiment in US-China trade relations persists, then it may improve global economic sentiment and translate into higher expectations for oil demand, thus enabling WTI to potentially move upward past key resistance levels in the near term. Conversely, however, if the NFP report shocks with better-than-anticipated job growth, it can reinforce the argument for the Fed to keep or even tighten policy, pressuring oil prices. In addition, any unforeseen deterioration in US-China trade relations or fresh geopolitical tensions can deflate risk appetite and cut demand projections, raising the potential for a pullback in WTI crude below existing support levels.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Approaches $62 As Trade Tensions and OPEC+ Output Increase: Market Watches US-China Negotiations and Economic Releases

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  • June 2, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices came within reach of $62, increasing 2.7% as trade tensions re-emerged, and geopolitical uncertainties intensified. The persistent tariffs standoff between China and the US continues to generate market instability, while OPEC+ last month announced a third straight month of 411,000 barrels per day production increment as it referenced a steady global economic picture. Investors are now keeping a close eye on near-term US economic data and the possibility of high-level negotiations between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, as they may have substantial impacts on oil prices and market sentiment in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will keep an eye on possible high-level negotiations between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to settle current trade conflicts, which may affect global economic development and oil demand. • OPEC+ decision to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels a day for the third month running is likely to place crude prices under downward pressure due to oversupply fears. • Ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East continue to shape oil prices, introducing volatility into the market with supply concerns. • The mentioned US May ISM Manufacturing PMI report will potentially impact the US dollar and hence the USD-based WTI price, based on whether the figures will exceed expectations. WTI crude oil prices are charting a complex course influenced by several determinants. Market players are looking at upcoming US-China trade talks closely, with any progress or reverse having huge implications for global economic expansion and oil demand. At the same time, OPEC+ continues to raise production for the third consecutive month, adding 411,000 barrels per day in July, which creates worries about possible oversupply and prices’ downward pressure. Geopolitical tensions within the Middle East also remain, adding volatility to the market. Also on the watch list is the release of the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, as improved economic readings might propel the US dollar and pressure WTI prices, which are USD-denominated. WTI crude oil approaches $62 as tensions in trade and OPEC+’s third monthly production increase in a row. Investors are also monitoring US-China trade negotiations, Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, and near-term US economic reports for cues on demand for oil and price direction. • Price of WTI crude oil rose to about $61.90, increasing 2.7% as tensions in trade and geopolitics escalated. • OPEC+ approved a third consecutive monthly production rise of 411,000 barrels per day for July. • The alliance used a consistent worldwide economic picture along with oil inventory levels at lows as justifications for increased production. • Disputes over US-China trade continue to generate uncertainty, with President Trump and President Xi Jinping’s upcoming talks being watched closely. • Trump’s tariffs and accusations of China breaking trade agreements have been adding volatility to markets. • OPEC+’s ramped-up supply might put pressure on crude prices, pitting US shale producers at the forefront. • The forthcoming US May ISM Manufacturing PMI report may affect the US dollar and affect WTI pricing. WTI crude oil prices have been shaped by continuous global trade tensions and geopolitics. The volatility on the United States-China trade relationship persists to overhang sentiment in the market, as both countries gear up for critical talks that will seek to reconcile their differences. In the meantime, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) laid out a plan to boost oil production during July, as it perceives a stable global economic view and relatively balanced market environment. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, Middle East political tensions also instill a sense of added caution among investors. Market participants also have their ears tuned to forthcoming United States economic reports that may shed further light on demand strength for oil in the world’s economy. Overall, these influences come together to produce a dynamic environment in which advancements in trade, politics, and economics all have a significant influence in determining oil market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is displaying bullish momentum as it edges closer to important resistance near the $62 level, underpinned by good buying interest in recent trading sessions. Price action shows a solid rising trend, with moving averages coming together to support short-term strength. But traders should remain vigilant for possible pullbacks should the price not break convincingly above this resistance. Important support levels at $60 could serve as a base, offering room for buyers to re-enter. From a technical standpoint, there is guarded optimism but emphasis on observing volume and momentum signals for confirmation of a persistent rally. FORECAST WTI crude oil may continue to advance if trade tensions relax, especially if future negotiations between the US and China deliver positive results. Resolution or even developments in these talks would most likely enhance market optimism and enhance demand expectations. Geopolitical risks within the Middle East could also remain supportive by heightening fears of supply disruptions. Solid US economic data, including a strong ISM Manufacturing PMI, may also support oil prices by indicating healthy demand on the horizon. Conversely, OPEC+’s production increase for a third straight month may put downward pressure on prices by raising global supply. If the overall economic environment in the world suffers from protracted trade tensions or other external shocks, it may slow down the demand for oil, driving prices down. Additionally, a stronger US dollar, potentially fed by improved-than-anticipated economic statistics, may render USD-denominated crude dearer to those with other currencies, further suppressing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.

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