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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Steady Before US Jobs Data Amid Easing US-China Trade Tensions

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  • June 6, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices are steady at $62.20 as the market prepares for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, an important indicator that can sway the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Investors are also taking hope from signals of bettering US-China trade relations, after a constructive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. A reduction in trade tensions, particularly with China as the globe’s biggest oil importer, underpins oil prices by increasing optimism on steady global demand. Traders are upbeat but wary, with the next big price catalyst likely to be the upcoming US jobs report. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look to May’s jobs data, which can set the stage for future Fed interest rate action. • Weakness in labor demand could fuel rumors of rate cuts, boosting commodity prices such as oil. • A positive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi helps ease tensions, enhancing global oil demand prospects. • WTI crude consolidates around $62.20, as markets exercise caution prior to high-impact data and geopolitical events. WTI oil prices are trading in a stable range of $62.20 as investors have opted for a wait-and-watch game before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The jobs report is likely to provide new clues to the Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and any evidence of softening labor demand could be supporting expectations of dovish policy. In the meantime, oil is underpinned by increasing optimism about US-China trade relations, after a cordial conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Since China is the world’s biggest oil importer, relaxing trade tensions are viewed as a bullish crudes’ demand factor, which assists in stabilizing market sentiment. WTI crude maintains its position close to $62.20 as markets wait for the US NFP reading for indications on Fed policy. Hope of strengthening US-China trade relations is also supporting oil prices. Traders are on guard but optimistic about stability in demand. • WTI crude trades flat at $62.20 during European sessions. • US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May is due at 12:30 GMT. • The NFP release is crucial for shaping expectations on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. •  Weaker labor data may increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, supporting oil prices. • US-China trade tensions show signs of easing after a positive call between Trump and Xi. •  Beijing confirms diplomatic engagement, reflecting efforts to stabilize relations. • Improving US-China ties favor global oil demand, offering fundamental support to WTI. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is flat as markets concentrate on two key worldwide news: the soon-to-be-released US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and indications of enhanced US-China ties. Investors pay particular attention to the NFP report since it will determine the direction that the Federal Reserve takes in subsequent interest rate decisions. A weakening labor market might encourage the Fed to explore more dovish monetary policy, which would normally favor commodity markets such as oil. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Diplomatic developments between the United States and China also support sentiment in the oil market. Recently, a phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, which has been characterized as positive by both parties, generated optimism regarding easing trade tensions. As China is the world’s biggest oil importer, any betteirment in bilateral relations with the US would be viewed as a good sign for the world’s energy demand and market stability. Such geopolitical optimism is contributing to sustaining prices of oil. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is consolidating around the $62.20 mark, showing a period of indecision while traders wait for a breakout catalyst. The price is trading near the important moving averages, indicating a short-term neutral bias. A break above the immediate resistance could set the stage for more advances, and a break below the near support levels could indicate renewed bear pressure. The momentum indicators are fairly flat, which supports the contention that a discerning directional trigger—such as the imminent US NFP data—is required for the next meaningful price move. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates weakening labor market conditions, it may raise market expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. This may have the effect of weakening the US Dollar, which would have the resultant effect of supporting crude oil prices indirectly. Moreover, if the improving sentiment in US-China trade relations persists, then it may improve global economic sentiment and translate into higher expectations for oil demand, thus enabling WTI to potentially move upward past key resistance levels in the near term. Conversely, however, if the NFP report shocks with better-than-anticipated job growth, it can reinforce the argument for the Fed to keep or even tighten policy, pressuring oil prices. In addition, any unforeseen deterioration in US-China trade relations or fresh geopolitical tensions can deflate risk appetite and cut demand projections, raising the potential for a pullback in WTI crude below existing support levels.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Approaches $62 As Trade Tensions and OPEC+ Output Increase: Market Watches US-China Negotiations and Economic Releases

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  • June 2, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices came within reach of $62, increasing 2.7% as trade tensions re-emerged, and geopolitical uncertainties intensified. The persistent tariffs standoff between China and the US continues to generate market instability, while OPEC+ last month announced a third straight month of 411,000 barrels per day production increment as it referenced a steady global economic picture. Investors are now keeping a close eye on near-term US economic data and the possibility of high-level negotiations between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, as they may have substantial impacts on oil prices and market sentiment in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will keep an eye on possible high-level negotiations between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to settle current trade conflicts, which may affect global economic development and oil demand. • OPEC+ decision to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels a day for the third month running is likely to place crude prices under downward pressure due to oversupply fears. • Ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East continue to shape oil prices, introducing volatility into the market with supply concerns. • The mentioned US May ISM Manufacturing PMI report will potentially impact the US dollar and hence the USD-based WTI price, based on whether the figures will exceed expectations. WTI crude oil prices are charting a complex course influenced by several determinants. Market players are looking at upcoming US-China trade talks closely, with any progress or reverse having huge implications for global economic expansion and oil demand. At the same time, OPEC+ continues to raise production for the third consecutive month, adding 411,000 barrels per day in July, which creates worries about possible oversupply and prices’ downward pressure. Geopolitical tensions within the Middle East also remain, adding volatility to the market. Also on the watch list is the release of the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, as improved economic readings might propel the US dollar and pressure WTI prices, which are USD-denominated. WTI crude oil approaches $62 as tensions in trade and OPEC+’s third monthly production increase in a row. Investors are also monitoring US-China trade negotiations, Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, and near-term US economic reports for cues on demand for oil and price direction. • Price of WTI crude oil rose to about $61.90, increasing 2.7% as tensions in trade and geopolitics escalated. • OPEC+ approved a third consecutive monthly production rise of 411,000 barrels per day for July. • The alliance used a consistent worldwide economic picture along with oil inventory levels at lows as justifications for increased production. • Disputes over US-China trade continue to generate uncertainty, with President Trump and President Xi Jinping’s upcoming talks being watched closely. • Trump’s tariffs and accusations of China breaking trade agreements have been adding volatility to markets. • OPEC+’s ramped-up supply might put pressure on crude prices, pitting US shale producers at the forefront. • The forthcoming US May ISM Manufacturing PMI report may affect the US dollar and affect WTI pricing. WTI crude oil prices have been shaped by continuous global trade tensions and geopolitics. The volatility on the United States-China trade relationship persists to overhang sentiment in the market, as both countries gear up for critical talks that will seek to reconcile their differences. In the meantime, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) laid out a plan to boost oil production during July, as it perceives a stable global economic view and relatively balanced market environment. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, Middle East political tensions also instill a sense of added caution among investors. Market participants also have their ears tuned to forthcoming United States economic reports that may shed further light on demand strength for oil in the world’s economy. Overall, these influences come together to produce a dynamic environment in which advancements in trade, politics, and economics all have a significant influence in determining oil market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is displaying bullish momentum as it edges closer to important resistance near the $62 level, underpinned by good buying interest in recent trading sessions. Price action shows a solid rising trend, with moving averages coming together to support short-term strength. But traders should remain vigilant for possible pullbacks should the price not break convincingly above this resistance. Important support levels at $60 could serve as a base, offering room for buyers to re-enter. From a technical standpoint, there is guarded optimism but emphasis on observing volume and momentum signals for confirmation of a persistent rally. FORECAST WTI crude oil may continue to advance if trade tensions relax, especially if future negotiations between the US and China deliver positive results. Resolution or even developments in these talks would most likely enhance market optimism and enhance demand expectations. Geopolitical risks within the Middle East could also remain supportive by heightening fears of supply disruptions. Solid US economic data, including a strong ISM Manufacturing PMI, may also support oil prices by indicating healthy demand on the horizon. Conversely, OPEC+’s production increase for a third straight month may put downward pressure on prices by raising global supply. If the overall economic environment in the world suffers from protracted trade tensions or other external shocks, it may slow down the demand for oil, driving prices down. Additionally, a stronger US dollar, potentially fed by improved-than-anticipated economic statistics, may render USD-denominated crude dearer to those with other currencies, further suppressing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Stays Near $60 Amid Softening Trade Tensions, Under Pressure from OPEC+ Production Plans

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  • May 9, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices stay close to $60 per barrel following a steep 4% gain, supported by softening trade tensions between large global economies. Favorable news like a trade breakthrough agreement between the US and UK and a scheduled meeting between US and Chinese officials have helped buoy oil market sentiment. Prices are, however, under pressure from OPEC+ indicating potential production hikes, and US sanctions against Chinese refiners creating additional uncertainty. Though geopolitical developments are enhancing optimism in the near term, supply-side risks remain a challenge for sustained gains in oil prices. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets will be keenly observing the May 10 encounter between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng for any indication of forward movement on trade tensions that could impact global oil demand. • The oil market is still wary of OPEC+ cues to raise output, which may put a lid on additional price rises despite recent positive momentum. • Lowered tariffs between UK and US may help drive higher economic activity and energy demand and provide some positives for oil prices. • Disruptions by sanctions to the operations of two Chinese refiners on the importation of Iranian crude can affect local supply chains and introduce volatility in global oil supplies. WTI crude oil prices are settling around the $60 level, underpinned by relaxing global trade tensions and positive developments like the US-UK trade deal and impending US-China negotiations. These diplomatic moves have lifted market sentiment and hopes for firmer global oil demand. Yet, there are headwinds too, with OPEC+ indicating plans to increase production, which may cap further price appreciation. Also, US sanctions on lesser Chinese refiners for buying Iranian crude bring in new geopolitical uncertainty that can hamper supply chains and inject risk into the oil market outlook. WTI crude is around $60 as relaxed US-China and US-UK trade tensions are improving market mood. But the possibility of more OPEC+ production and US sanctions on Chinese refiners can create downside risks. •  WTI crude stabilizes at around $60 following a near 4% rally on the back of declining trade tensions. •  US-China and US-UK trade news has enhanced global demand sentiment. •   Potential oil market outlook could be impacted by upcoming US-China meeting on May 10 in Switzerland. •  US-UK trade agreement involves lower tariffs, underpinning potential economic and energy demand growth. •  OPEC+ signals plans to increase production, which may cap further oil price gains. • US sanctions on two Chinese refiners for buying Iranian crude are disrupting supply chains. •  OPEC output slightly declined in April, offset by lower production in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq. Global oil markets are experiencing a shift in sentiment as diplomatic efforts between major economies show signs of progress. One of the major drivers of the optimism is the de-escalation of the trade tension between China and the United States, represented by a forthcoming meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland. In the meantime, a fresh US-UK trade deal represents an important step, as the two nations agreed to lower tariffs on vital imports. These trends are perceived as favorable to global economic stability and energy consumption. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical forces still shape the oil environment. The United States has sanctioned two smaller Chinese refiners for allegedly buying Iranian crude, halting operations and putting further pressure on Iranian oil exports. Simultaneously, talks inside OPEC+ regarding future production strategies continue, with member nations balancing supply management under evolving global circumstances. These developments only mirror the wider dynamic of diplomacy, trade, and policymaking decisions that set the course of the oil industry today. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is exhibiting signs of consolidation around the $60.00 level following a sharp bullish session in the last trading session. The price is currently trading above major short-term moving averages, indicating ongoing buying interest, while momentum indicators such as RSI are in neutral-to-positive levels, showing scope for further gains if supported by underlying factors. But a breakdown in maintaining support at $59.50 could lead to a pullback, and a breakdown above $60.50 sustained might indicate further follow-through in the uptrend. FORECAST WTI crude oil is likely to experience increased upward momentum if diplomatic gains among key economies persist, especially in the form of successful trade negotiations between the US and China. A persistent recovery in global economic sentiment can fuel demand recovery, providing impetus for increasing oil prices. Also, any hesitation or unwillingness within OPEC+ to raise planned production can reduce supply, and as a result, can push the price higher than the level of $60.50 resistance. A breakthrough above this zone can send the price higher to the $62–$63 region in the near term. To the negative, oil prices are still at risk to supply-side pressures, particularly if OPEC+ intends to pursue planned output increases. Higher output could result in a market that’s oversupplied, pushing prices down. Moreover, any delay in trade negotiations or increased geopolitical tensions—e.g., heightened US sanctions or interruptions to oil flows—can erode market confidence. Technically, should WTI close below the $59.00 support, it can lead to a further correction towards the $57.50–$58.00 range.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Recovers Above $57.50 Despite Mounting Supply and Demand Headwinds

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  • May 6, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose above $57.50 per barrel in Asian trading on Tuesday, as recovery continued despite increasing concerns over surging global supply and soft demand. The rally comes after a near 2% fall on Monday but remains contained as OPEC+ ramps up output increases, committing an extra 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for June. This is the second straight monthly rise and partly unwinds earlier production reductions. At the same time, recession concerns, weak refined fuel demand, and an accumulation of world crude stocks—increased by 150 million barrels since mid-February—are putting downward pressure on prices, leaving the market’s near-term trend uncertain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for additional reports on output hikes, particularly if the group chooses to entirely unwind voluntary cuts by October as compliance problems loom. • Further rises in worldwide inventories, now higher by 150 million barrels since February, will tend to dampen price momentum. • Low demand for import refineries of refined fuel, especially in Asia, is an essential pressure point and may foretell wider economic weakening. • Economic data and fears of recession in major economies will be decisive in determining expectations of oil demand and price directions. Oil market players need to watch OPEC+ production closely as the recent move by the group to increase 411,000 bpd in June could be followed up with a total roll back of voluntary cuts in October if issues around compliance continue. Increasing world crude inventories—up by 150 million barrels since mid-February—present a huge threat to price stability, particularly in an already struggling market with poor demand for refined products. Moreover, economic uncertainty and ongoing recession concerns continue to weigh on demand expectations, so macroeconomic fundamentals remain a key area to monitor in the coming weeks. Investors need to look out for additional OPEC+ production adjustments and increasing global crude inventories, which could weigh on prices. Softened refined fuel demand and ongoing recession concerns also represent key downside threats to the oil market. • WTI crude prices rebounded above $57.50 in Asian trade after falling by almost 2% on Monday. • OPEC+ rolled back further cuts by 411,000 bpd in June, extending its phased reversal of earlier cuts. • Total hike for April–June amounts to 960,000 bpd, reversing 44% of cuts since 2022. • Saudi Arabia is urging faster rollback of cuts to sanction non-compliant members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. •  Global crude inventories have increased by 150 million barrels since mid-February, putting pressure on prices. •  Demand for refined fuel continues to be weak, especially in key importing regions. •   Fears of recession continue to bear down on oil demand prospects, curbing bullish pressure in the market. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remains in the spotlight as it holds ground above the $57.50 level, even against a background of increasing anxiety over world oil supply. OPEC+ last week decided to boost production again in June, marking a change of heart as the alliance put an extra 411,000 barrels per day onto the market. This step is one part of a larger initiative to reverse prior output reductions and bring production levels back closer to pre-cut levels. Nations such as Saudi Arabia are taking the lead in facilitating this ramp-up, as they aim to impose discipline on non-compliant members who have not always fulfilled their output commitments. WTI Crude Oil DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the oil market is also confronted with ongoing challenges on the demand side. Global consumption continues to be pressured by poor demand for refined fuel and general economic uncertainty. Inventories have been rising steadily, suggesting that supply might be outstripping demand at the moment. With more oil on the market and less being used, the question is still how the market will reconcile these two forces. Looking forward, moves by OPEC+ and changes in global economic sentiment will be key to shaping the future trajectory of the oil market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is stabilizing signs at the $57.50 level after rallying off recent lows. Price is trying to hold above this psychological level, but bulls are likely limited for now, with resistance likely in the $58.50 to $59.00 range. Short-term indicators point towards consolidation, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingers in neutral ranges, indicating indecision in traders. A continuous move above crucial resistance points may pave the way for more gains, while a fall below $57.00 may indicate increased bearish pressure over the short term. FORECAST In case the market mood changes and buying interest starts to firm up, WTI crude may experience more upward momentum. A sustained economic upturn in global activity or indications of improved fuel consumption—specifically from key economies such as China and the U.S.—can foster upward prices. Furthermore, any indications of reduced supply, either from rising geopolitical tensions or increased compliance within OPEC+, can also offer upward pressure. Here, WTI can target resistance levels of approximately $59.00 to $61.00 in the short term. On the negative side, oil prices are exposed to some bearish influences. Increasing global inventories, persisting softness in refined fuel demand, and recessionary concerns can bear down on market sentiment. If OPEC+ production rise accelerates ahead of demand recovery, or macroeconomic indicators deteriorate, WTI can find it difficult to sustain present levels. A fall below the $57.00 support level can facilitate more falls, which can take the price back to lower levels around $55.50 or even $54.00.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Increases on Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans

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  • March 18, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices inched higher above $67.00 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and upbeat economic news from China. The US military attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen persisting after recent attacks on US warships have further raised energy supply route worries in the Red Sea, increasing transportation and oil prices. At the same time, China’s new economic stimulus proposals to revive domestic consumption and calm markets further bolstered crude prices. But the plus could be constrained by increasing worries about President Trump’s protectionist trade practices, which could slow down world economic growth and energy demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing US military attacks and Houthi strikes in the Red Sea region could disrupt worldwide oil supply routes, placing continued upward pressure on WTI prices. • New moves by China to stimulate consumption and stabilize its economy may lend support to global oil demand and crude prices with a bullish twist. • Escalating worries regarding global trade tensions and inflation following Trump’s belligerent tariff strategy might dampen economic growth and oil demand in the long term. • Diversion of oil shipments because of disruptions in the Red Sea may escalate global energy transport costs, also affecting oil price dynamics. WTI crude oil traders will pay close attention to a number of key drivers affecting price action. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, most notably the continuing US-Houthi rebel conflict in the Red Sea, are still fueling fears of supply chain disruptions and increasing energy transportation costs. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, intended to support domestic consumption and shore up markets, are providing support to global oil demand. But the upside for WTI may be capped by concerns about a global economic slowdown, driven by President Trump’s renewed protectionist trade policies and import tariffs, which could depress business activity and erode consumer confidence. WTI crude oil is supported by rising Middle East tensions and China’s economic stimulus packages. But Trump’s tariff policies and their effects on world growth might keep further upside in oil prices in check. • WTI crude oil trades at close to $67.30 with elevated geopolitical tensions. • US military strikes against Houthi rebels create supply disruption concerns. • Red Sea unrest adds energy transportation costs, lifting oil prices. • China’s latest stimulus plan for the economy favors crude demand assumptions. • China’s retail sales improve, reflecting robust consumption. • Trump’s shift back to protectionist trade policy is driving global economic worries. • Fears of trade war and inflation risks may cap the upside potential in WTI. WTI crude oil prices are receiving support from increasing geopolitical tensions and positive economic cues from leading global economies. The current conflict in the Middle East, including the US’s military intervention aimed at Houthi rebels in Yemen, has increased the red flag of concerns regarding energy supply routes through the Red Sea. Consequently, global oil markets are responding to the possible interruption of crude transport, and attention has been given to supply security and energy prices. The matter has attracted world attention as oil logistics are increasing in complexity and expense because shipping routes have had to be detoured.  WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from geopolitical issues, China’s new economic policies are providing a bulls’ eye optimism for oil demand. The authorities in China introduced new measures for the enhancement of domestic consumption, as well as the stabilization of the stock market and realty markets. With better retail sales data and growing consumer activity, hopes of greater energy demand from the world’s second-largest economy are serving to underpin market confidence. Still, market participants are being held back by continuing global economic uncertainties, notably resulting from revived trade tensions and policy changes, which continue to inform the wider energy outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is experiencing bullish momentum as it remains above the important psychological level of $67.00. The price action indicates firm buying interest, with short-term resistance possible around the $67.50–$68.00 range, and support at $66.50. A clean break above the resistance level can potentially open the gates for more bullishness, while inability to remain above the support level can see a short-term dip. Volumes and patterns in candlestick will be watched intently by traders to measure the strength of the prevailing trend. FORECAST WTI crude oil has potential for further upside if Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue to rise, particularly with ongoing American military intervention and possible supply interruptions in the Red Sea area. Moreover, China’s economic recovery efforts and robust consumption data could drive optimism over more international oil demand. If these supportive underpinnings continue, WTI prices may try to break above the short-term resistance levels and travel towards higher price levels in the near term. On the flip side, WTI may face downward pressure if global economic concerns intensify, particularly due to President Trump’s protectionist trade policies and their impact on inflation and consumer confidence. A slowdown in global growth could reduce energy demand, leading to a potential pullback in crude prices. Furthermore, any de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a drop in Chinese demand could also weigh on market sentiment and push WTI prices lower.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $66.50 on US Stockpile Build-Up and Trade War Worries

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  • March 6, 2025
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WTI crude prices have declined below $66.50, hitting their lowest level since December 2021, as the increased US crude stockpiles and rising trade tensions dampen sentiment. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles grew by 3.614 million barrels, contrary to market estimates of a drawdown. Moreover, fears of the economic effects of newly imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have also put pressure on oil prices. OPEC+’s move to go ahead with its scheduled production hike from April has also fueled bearish sentiment in the market, triggering concerns of oversupply in the face of softening global demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • The EIA registered a 3.614 million-barrel rise in crude oil inventories, well above market estimates and putting pressure on WTI prices. • Freshly imposed US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada contribute to economic slowdown fears, potentially dampening worldwide crude demand and adding more pressure on prices. • OPEC+ reaffirmed production hikes from April, the first since 2022, sharpening supply fears and pushing WTI lower. • WTI crude touched its lowest since Dec 2021, failing to find traction in bearish fundamentals as traders look to further downside risks. WTI crude prices have fallen below $66.50, weighed down by a bigger-than-anticipated increase in US crude inventories, rising trade tensions, and OPEC+’s move to boost production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US inventories jumped by 3.614 million barrels, sharply different from market expectations of a fall. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the economic effect of fresh US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has caused growing concerns of decreasing demand, further weighing on market sentiment. At the same time, OPEC+ has scheduled its first output increase since 2022, further supporting supply concerns and putting additional pressure on oil prices downwards. With WTI at its lowest level since December 2021, investors are also wary of additional downside risks for the market. WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $66.50 as US crude inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels, more than forecasts. Rising trade tensions and OPEC+’s production hike plan also contribute to bearish pressure, with investors concerned about slowing global demand and supply glut. • Crude oil prices recorded a new low since December 2021 as bearish market sentiment dominated. • EIA indicated a rise in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, significantly higher than market forecasts of a decline. • Imposition of new US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spooked markets with fears of economic slowdown, weighing on oil demand. • OPEC+ plans to boost oil production from April, a first since 2022, putting pressure on supply. • The market had been expected to decline towards a 290,000-barrel drop, but the surprise inventory build triggered a steep price fall. • Technical weakness coupled with deteriorating fundamentals keeps crude oil under pressure from selling. • Market players are keenly monitoring trade trends, supply fundamentals, and economic indicators for future price movements. The recent events in the crude oil market have indeed sent alarmed signals for traders and investors. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) had reported a huge build-up of US crude inventories, with stocks increasing by 3.614 million barrels. This sudden surge has created talks regarding the possibility of oversupply within the market. Furthermore, OPEC+ has made a decision to go ahead with an April production boost, the first such change since 2022. The action is in line with the group’s plan to keep supplies steady in the face of continued economic uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical events, such as recently imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have contributed to the market’s complexity. WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView These tariffs have raised fears of possible economic slowdowns, which would impact worldwide demand for crude oil. Most industries depend on stable trade relationships, and the disruptions caused by tariffs can trigger changes in patterns of production and consumption. Additionally, market players are watching closely policy choices and supply chain shifts that can affect long-term energy demand. As the oil market traverses this transition, eyes are still on critical determinants like world economic performance, geopolitical events, and strategic actions of leading oil-producing countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is under pressure to sell, its price at the lowest since December 2021. The trend in prices is bearish, with the crucial resistance points around $67.00 and $68.50 and immediate support at $65.00. A break below this support level might spark further downside action, building up selling pressure. Moving averages reflect a downward slope, with the price currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to sustained weakness. Also, momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point towards oversold conditions, which might imply short-term consolidation before a direction move. Traders will be observing closely volume trends and any fundamental drivers that might affect price action in the subsequent sessions. FORECAST WTI crude oil prices may witness a possible bounce if market fundamentals favor buyers. Recovery might be seen if US crude inventories report a decrease in subsequent EIA releases, reflecting stronger demand. Moreover, any upbeat news in world trade, for instance, the resolution of tariffs or better-than-expected economic growth projections, may help buoy crude prices. If WTI is able to breach the major resistance levels of $67.00 and $68.50, it might set the stage for a bull run recovery, possibly towards the $70.00 psychological level. In addition, unforeseen supply interruptions or geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing areas can also drive a price rise. WTI is susceptible to additional declines if bearish pressures continue. The sharp increase in US crude stocks, as well as OPEC+ agreeing to boost output from April, contributes to fears of oversupply in the market. If further weakness in demand expectations arises on account of economic uncertainty, especially due to the effects of tariffs on international trade, WTI could persist with the bearish move. A strong break below the support level of $65.00 might exacerbate selling pressure, pushing prices to $63.50 or even lower. Also, technicals indicate crude

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Grapples with Tariff Threats, Economic Woes, and Supply Disruptions

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  • February 28, 2025
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WTI crude oil is under pressure at about $69.90 a barrel as concerns over world economic growth and demand for fuel dwarf supply threats. The market grapples with several headwinds, ranging from the United States imposing a 10% tariff on March 4 for Canadian energy imports, a recession in the United States with Q4 GDP declining to 2.3%, and increasing jobless claims. At the same time, oil prices experienced a short-term boost as President Trump canceled Chevron’s right to do business in Venezuela, potentially upsetting a large section of the country’s oil exports. Furthermore, OPEC+ is considering its production strategy with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, putting the market on its toes as investors wait for crucial economic indicators and policy announcements. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI lags at $69.90 amid economic slowdown concerns and U.S. tariff threats on market sentiment, despite fleeting price spikes. • A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 poses supply disruption risks and the risk of Canadian retaliatory actions. • Trump’s cancellation of Chevron’s Venezuela license puts oil exports at risk, which could influence global supply trends and trigger new talks with PDVSA. • OPEC+ considers its April production plan in the face of new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, creating additional market uncertainty. WTI crude oil continues to struggle, trading at about $69.90 per barrel, as global economic worries and U.S. tariff threats dampen market sentiment. The Biden administration’s move to apply a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 creates supply chain disruption concerns and possible retaliatory measures. In the meantime, oil prices briefly surged after President Trump cancelled Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, an action that would dislocate more than 25% of Venezuela’s oil exports. Contributing to volatility in the markets, OPEC+ still hasn’t decided on its April production plan amidst new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, leaving market players uncertain about forthcoming supply levels. As the U.S. economy is already reflecting slowdown growth and growing jobless claims, investors are now looking forward to the coming PCE price index report, a leading indicator of inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. WTI crude oil trades at $69.90 as economic slowdown concerns, US tariff risks, and supply disruptions hold prices in check. Market volatility is supported by the Chevron-Venezuela license cancellation and OPEC+ policy uncertainty, keeping investors nervous. • WTI remains low around $69.90 per barrel as economic slowdown risks and supply-demand weak fuel burden the market. • The U.S. will slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4, causing concern over supply disruptions and trade tensions. • Trump withdrew Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, putting more than 25% of the nation’s oil exports at risk and affecting global supply. • Q4 GDP growth fell to 2.3%, from 3.1% in Q3, with increasing jobless claims signaling possible weakness in the labor market. • In spite of bearishness, oil prices jumped more than 2% on supply fears after the Chevron-Venezuela news. • OPEC+ remains undecided on its April production plan with new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia adding to market uncertainty. • Traders are waiting for the PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s most important inflation indicator, for clues on possible policy changes. WTI crude oil is increasingly uncertain with geopolitical tensions and policy changes dictating the energy market. The U.S. government’s imposition of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 has created uncertainty around supply chain stability and possible trade wars. At the same time, President Trump’s action to rescind Chevron’s operating license in Venezuela brings even more complexity since it has the potential to blow up a sizable portion of Venezuela’s oil exports. These incidents have put energy traders and market participants waiting closely for further policy announcements and possible long-term effect on world oil dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the same time, OPEC+ is considering its April production plan against the backdrop of continued geopolitical changes and new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The organization has a tricky balancing act to perform between keeping production steady and reacting to possible supply disruptions. Concerns about economic growth, inflationary pressures, and labor market developments also continue to shape investor attitudes. While policymakers and businesspeople confront these difficulties, the issue is how the world’s energy policies will change to accommodate new economic and political realities. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is at present trading just below the $70.00 psychological level, with resistance near $71.50 and support near $68.50. The price continues to trade below major moving averages, which reflects bearish short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands just above the neutral zone, indicating indecisiveness from traders. A breakout above $71.50 might indicate further upside potential, and a fall below $68.50 can result in sustained losses. Volume analysis indicates diminishing buying interest, supporting the bearish mood in the market. Traders are observing closely for confirmation of a breakout or consolidation. FORECAST WTI crude oil is able to remain above the $70.00 level and breaches the crucial resistance at $71.50, it may initiate a bullish trend. A consistent rally above this level might force prices towards the next resistance at $73.00, where the buying interest may take even more control. Furthermore, if OPEC+ chooses to cut or keep output steady, supply worries might intensify and push prices upward. Upbeat economic news, softening inflation, or a recovery in worldwide fuel demand could also underpin a near-term crude oil price uptrend.  WTI cannot hold the $70.00 mark and goes below $68.50, selling pressure can increase, and prices can move towards the next support level at $66.00. Increasing worries about world economic growth, soft demand signals, and the effect of U.S. tariffs on oil imports may also pressure oil prices further. Further, any surprising rise in crude oil stocks or a firm U.S. currency could contribute to bearishness, raising the probability of a more acute fall in WTI prices.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Stuck at $72 on US-China Trade War and Iran Supply Risks

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  • February 5, 2025
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WTI crude oil trades near $72 per barrel as it struggles on US-China trade tensions and the rising supply risks from Iran. The market has apparently downplayed the impact of the trade war even after China announced new tariffs on US imports of crude oil and LNG. However, oil prices remain under pressure after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist as US President Donald Trump reinstates his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to cut its oil exports to zero. With OPEC+ maintaining its gradual production increase plans, oil prices may experience further volatility in the coming sessions. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI crude remains close to $72. US-China tensions and growing US crude oil stockpiles add pressure. • China sets fresh tariffs on imports of US crude, LNG, and other supplies, injecting volatility into the already uncertain global demand for oil. • The maximum pressure campaign waged by Trump on Iran to try to drive exports to zero further tightens supply and feeds geo-political tension. • OPEC+ reiterates its gradual increase in production policy, taking away the EIA from its monitoring sources, thereby changing the dynamics of future oil supply expectations. WTI crude oil stays on the back foot at $72 per barrel as market players digest the impact of US-China trade tensions, the increase in US crude inventories, and the geopolitical risks in Iran. The new tariffs China imposed on US imports of crude and LNG introduce uncertainty to global demand. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles are building for the third consecutive week according to the American Petroleum Institute. In other news, US President Donald Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign targets zeroing Iran’s oil exports, a development that would fuel geopolitical tensions, which can be a potential risk to supply dynamics. Furthermore, OPEC+ reaffirms its gradual increase strategy of production and removes the US Energy Information Administration from the monitoring sources in its move further into the future shaping of oil price trends. WTI crude oil remains near $72 as US-China trade tensions, rising US crude inventories, and Iran-related supply risks weigh on market sentiment. China’s new tariffs on US crude add uncertainty, while Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran fuels geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, OPEC+ sticks to its gradual production increase strategy, influencing future oil prices. • Crude oil could not take momentum with cautious market sentiment on geopolitics and economy. • New tariffs on Chinese imports of U.S. crude and LNG continue to put more pressure on oil demand globally • Renewed “maximum pressure” campaign to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero from Donald Trump further escalate geopolitical risks. • API: +5.025 million bbl increase in U.S. crude stock which will heighten concerns about the potential for an oversupply buildup. • Oil traders seem to downplay the immediate impact of new tariffs on demand. • OPEC+ confirms its plan to increase oil output gradually and removes the EIA from its monitoring sources. • WTI prices are unstable due to supply and demand factors. WTI crude oil prices remain near $72 per barrel as global markets react to a mix of trade tensions, supply risks, and inventory build-ups. This week, China issued newly imposed tariffs on US crude and imports of LNG, raising concerns over weak demand, but the market seems to play down at least its short-term impact. Meanwhile, American Petroleum Institute (API) report shows a significant increase of 5.025 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, its third straight weekly rise and nurturing fears of oversupply. A weak rebound after posting a 3% decline just the previous days still leaves oil prices in state of flux today as traders play out these dual dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Adding in geopolitics’ role, meanwhile, US President Donald Trump rolled back his pressure campaign to ensure Iran’s exports go to zero. This would knock off about 1.5 million barrels daily from global supplies, adding further uncertainty to the oil markets. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ has reaffirmed its plan for a gradual resumption of increasing oil production alongside removing the United States Energy Information Administration from their list of monitored sources. Together with the mixed geopolitical developments going on and uncertain market sentiment, WTI crude prices may not be spared additional volatility in trading sessions ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is still under bearish pressure as it fails to stay above the $72 level. The price has been trading below key moving averages, which indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are showing signs of a bearish crossover, which means further downside risk. RSI is still close to the oversold zone, which would mean that there is a possibility of having consolidation or a minor bounce before it embarks on another leg down. The support areas are near $71.50 and $70.00, whereas resistance is located around $73.50 and $75.00. A stronger break through support will add to pressure selling, whereas breaking above resistance may lead to a short-term recovery. FORECAST WTI crude oil may rebound if market sentiment changes due to geopolitical supply risks or an improved global demand outlook. A strong push above the $73.50 resistance level may trigger fresh buying momentum, with the next key targets around $75.00 and $76.50. Any unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ or escalating tensions in the Middle East could further support prices. Additionally, if the US and China take steps to ease trade tensions or undertake economic stimulus measures, oil demand expectations may improve with a rise to their advantage in increasing WTI prices. Confirmation of a recovery trend can be elicited from technical indicators like RSI and MACD turning into bullish. On the downside, WTI crude oil has susceptibility to further declines especially as global demand deteriorates due to sustained US-China trade tensions. A sustained break below the $71.50 support level could result in a deeper correction, with key downside targets at $70.00 and $68.50. The

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