Forex Trading Tools and Services

Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Trades in Positive Territory Around Mid-$60s as Trade Tensions, OPEC+ Supply Adjustment, and Fed Rate Cut Speculations Weigh In

  • BY
  • April 14, 2025
  • 0 Comments

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is trading in negative territory, staying just above the mid-$60.00 zone as conflicting fundamental drivers are maintaining caution among investors. New tensions regarding the US-China trade conflict and a surprising OPEC+ supply hike are dampening sentiment, and speculations of Fed rate cuts weigh in to stir fears of subpar global fuel demand. Nonetheless, the bearish side is still limited as hopes for successive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continue to weigh down the US Dollar, providing support to dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. Geopolitical fears related to potential US measures against Iran’s oil exports are also assisting in capping further losses, leaving WTI in a position of uncertain consolidation. KEY LOOKOUTS • Continued concerns regarding the mounting trade war can further slow down global economic growth and fuel demand, continuing to keep oil prices in check. • The surprise move by eight OPEC+ producers to bring forward a scheduled production hike and restore 411,000 barrels per day of supply to the market in May can continue to pressure crude prices. • Rising wagers on a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve, with several cuts in rates this year, would be able to sustain oil prices through maintaining a weak US Dollar. • Potential US moves to stop Iran from exporting its oil might bring new volatility to the market and serve as a support for WTI prices in the near term. WTI Crude Oil is still trading in the doldrums, unable to maintain gains as market forces present a tangled web of influences. Anxiety about the US-China trade conflict continues to be a powerful headwind, with investors concerned decelerating economic growth worldwide would severely reduce demand for fuel. Contributing to the bearishness, OPEC+ unexpectedly moved up the scheduled production increase, adding supply and further putting a lid on oil’s upward potential. Yet, hopes of several interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have left the US Dollar on the back foot, doing its best to insulate WTI from more significant losses. Meanwhile, geopolitical news — most notably the possibility of the US shutting down Iran’s oil exports — continues to provide underlying support and prevent oil prices from sliding precipitously. WTI Crude Oil is trading with a bearish bias, weighed down by revived US-China trade tensions and an unexpected OPEC+ supply hike. However, the expectations of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical concerns over Iran keep deeper losses in check. The market is vigilant amidst mixed global signals. •   WTI Crude Oil is trading with a bearish bias, floating around the mid-$60.00s amidst risk-averse market sentiment. •  US-China trade tensions increase concerns over lower global economic growth, which may lower fuel demand and press on oil prices. •  OPEC+ unexpectedly moved forward its supply boost, returning 411,000 barrels per day to the market during May, further pressuring prices. •  The US Dollar is still soft as expectations for several Federal Reserve rate cuts build, providing some strength to oil prices. •  Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran also assist in capping oil’s downside, with the US indicating potential action to stop Iranian oil shipments. •  Haphazard fundamental signals are making traders wary, inhibiting aggressive selling or buying pressure in the short term. •  The direction of the oil market in the near term will probably be influenced by new news on OPEC+ choices, US-China trade negotiations, and Fed policy actions. The crude oil market continues to be trapped between conflicting global factors, with traders balancing fears over economic growth and changing supply dynamics. The on-going trade war between the US and China continues to fuel uncertainty, as any deceleration in these big economies could translate into softer energy demand globally. Adding to the tentative atmosphere, members of OPEC+ have agreed to proceed with the planned production boost, and this might bring additional supply into the market at a time when demand might be facing headwinds. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, hopes for policy shifts by the US Federal Reserve are providing some stability to sentiment in the markets. A weaker dollar tends to make commodities such as oil more appealing to foreign buyers, offering some respite from the demand concerns. Moreover, geopolitical events — such as the potential for the US to tighten the screws on Iran’s oil exports — are keeping the market on its toes for additional supply-side disruptions. Consequently, crude oil continues to chart a complicated landscape influenced by both global politics and economic indicators. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil is resisting around the $61.60 area, where selling has consistently capped upside efforts. The commodity is failing to sustain any significant rebound and remains at risk as long as it stays below this level. Support on the downside comes at the $60.00 psychological point, a break through which may target the next important support around $59.50. Overall, the price action suggests a consolidative phase, with traders awaiting a clear break on either side for fresh directional cues. FORECAST If global market sentiment stabilizes and trade tensions between the US and China ease, crude oil prices could find room for recovery. Further support can also be derived from any indication of supply tightening, either through OPEC+ shifting its production plan or geopolitical shock such as the possible limitation of Iranian oil exports. A weakening US Dollar, fueled by anticipated Federal Reserve rate reductions, may also further fuel buying interest in oil, setting the stage for a return towards higher resistance levels. On the other hand, if trade tensions between the world’s biggest economies continue to weaken, the outlook for global demand may further lose momentum, resulting in sustained pressure on crude prices. Increasing alarm over oversupply, particularly after OPEC+’s initial production hike, may speed up the downward slide. Moreover, any indication of economic slowdown in major markets or more robust US stockpile readings than anticipated could push oil prices towards lower support levels in future sessions.

Read More
Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $66.50 on US Stockpile Build-Up and Trade War Worries

  • BY
  • March 6, 2025
  • 0 Comments

WTI crude prices have declined below $66.50, hitting their lowest level since December 2021, as the increased US crude stockpiles and rising trade tensions dampen sentiment. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles grew by 3.614 million barrels, contrary to market estimates of a drawdown. Moreover, fears of the economic effects of newly imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have also put pressure on oil prices. OPEC+’s move to go ahead with its scheduled production hike from April has also fueled bearish sentiment in the market, triggering concerns of oversupply in the face of softening global demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • The EIA registered a 3.614 million-barrel rise in crude oil inventories, well above market estimates and putting pressure on WTI prices. • Freshly imposed US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada contribute to economic slowdown fears, potentially dampening worldwide crude demand and adding more pressure on prices. • OPEC+ reaffirmed production hikes from April, the first since 2022, sharpening supply fears and pushing WTI lower. • WTI crude touched its lowest since Dec 2021, failing to find traction in bearish fundamentals as traders look to further downside risks. WTI crude prices have fallen below $66.50, weighed down by a bigger-than-anticipated increase in US crude inventories, rising trade tensions, and OPEC+’s move to boost production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US inventories jumped by 3.614 million barrels, sharply different from market expectations of a fall. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the economic effect of fresh US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has caused growing concerns of decreasing demand, further weighing on market sentiment. At the same time, OPEC+ has scheduled its first output increase since 2022, further supporting supply concerns and putting additional pressure on oil prices downwards. With WTI at its lowest level since December 2021, investors are also wary of additional downside risks for the market. WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $66.50 as US crude inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels, more than forecasts. Rising trade tensions and OPEC+’s production hike plan also contribute to bearish pressure, with investors concerned about slowing global demand and supply glut. • Crude oil prices recorded a new low since December 2021 as bearish market sentiment dominated. • EIA indicated a rise in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, significantly higher than market forecasts of a decline. • Imposition of new US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spooked markets with fears of economic slowdown, weighing on oil demand. • OPEC+ plans to boost oil production from April, a first since 2022, putting pressure on supply. • The market had been expected to decline towards a 290,000-barrel drop, but the surprise inventory build triggered a steep price fall. • Technical weakness coupled with deteriorating fundamentals keeps crude oil under pressure from selling. • Market players are keenly monitoring trade trends, supply fundamentals, and economic indicators for future price movements. The recent events in the crude oil market have indeed sent alarmed signals for traders and investors. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) had reported a huge build-up of US crude inventories, with stocks increasing by 3.614 million barrels. This sudden surge has created talks regarding the possibility of oversupply within the market. Furthermore, OPEC+ has made a decision to go ahead with an April production boost, the first such change since 2022. The action is in line with the group’s plan to keep supplies steady in the face of continued economic uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical events, such as recently imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have contributed to the market’s complexity. WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView These tariffs have raised fears of possible economic slowdowns, which would impact worldwide demand for crude oil. Most industries depend on stable trade relationships, and the disruptions caused by tariffs can trigger changes in patterns of production and consumption. Additionally, market players are watching closely policy choices and supply chain shifts that can affect long-term energy demand. As the oil market traverses this transition, eyes are still on critical determinants like world economic performance, geopolitical events, and strategic actions of leading oil-producing countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is under pressure to sell, its price at the lowest since December 2021. The trend in prices is bearish, with the crucial resistance points around $67.00 and $68.50 and immediate support at $65.00. A break below this support level might spark further downside action, building up selling pressure. Moving averages reflect a downward slope, with the price currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to sustained weakness. Also, momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point towards oversold conditions, which might imply short-term consolidation before a direction move. Traders will be observing closely volume trends and any fundamental drivers that might affect price action in the subsequent sessions. FORECAST WTI crude oil prices may witness a possible bounce if market fundamentals favor buyers. Recovery might be seen if US crude inventories report a decrease in subsequent EIA releases, reflecting stronger demand. Moreover, any upbeat news in world trade, for instance, the resolution of tariffs or better-than-expected economic growth projections, may help buoy crude prices. If WTI is able to breach the major resistance levels of $67.00 and $68.50, it might set the stage for a bull run recovery, possibly towards the $70.00 psychological level. In addition, unforeseen supply interruptions or geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing areas can also drive a price rise. WTI is susceptible to additional declines if bearish pressures continue. The sharp increase in US crude stocks, as well as OPEC+ agreeing to boost output from April, contributes to fears of oversupply in the market. If further weakness in demand expectations arises on account of economic uncertainty, especially due to the effects of tariffs on international trade, WTI could persist with the bearish move. A strong break below the support level of $65.00 might exacerbate selling pressure, pushing prices to $63.50 or even lower. Also, technicals indicate crude

Read More
Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Slips Below $78.00 Amid Red Sea Truce Developments

  • BY
  • January 17, 2025
  • 0 Comments

West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell below $78.00, trading at around $77.85, as a truce in Gaza led to expectations of a halt in Houthi shipping attacks in the Red Sea. Geopolitical stability in the region has eased security premiums on oil prices. However, rising oil demand amid increased travel activities to celebrate India’s festivals and Lunar New Year in China is expected to further bolster WTI prices. Moreover, robust US retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s conservative policy on the interest rate cuts have indeed seen the US Dollar gaining strength that is pushing pressure on the USD-denominated oil. They are also watching for China’s next batch of economic data, such as GDP and Retail Sales, for more clues about oil demand, as the world’s second-largest oil consumer continues to recover. KEY LOOKOUTS Ceasefire in Gaza and halt to Houthi shipping attacks may reduce the security premium on oil prices. • Increased travel during India’s festivals and China’s Lunar New Year is anticipated to drive global oil consumption higher in the coming weeks. • Strong retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary policy impact oil prices by influencing the strength of the US Dollar. • Key data on GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production will be closely monitored for signs of recovery in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices declined to below $78.00 and traded around $77.85, while the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea lowered security risks. A stoppage of Houthi attacks on shipping and a Gaza ceasefire are alleviating the outlook, thus eliminating some of the risk premium on oil prices. Still, buoyant oil demand, supported by festive travel in India and Lunar New Year in China, should help recover lost ground. Meanwhile, a healthy US retail sales report coupled with the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve regarding cutting interest rates supported the US Dollar, pushing down oil prices. Traders now await China’s GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data, which might further mold the global oil market dynamics with hints of recovery in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. WTI prices declined below $78.00 on the back of eased geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, though increased festive travel demand and expectations for China’s economic recovery may support future price increases. • WTI crude oil prices traded below $78.00, trading near $77.85, on geopolitical news and eased tensions in the Red Sea. • The Gaza ceasefire and expected cessation of Houthi shipping attacks decreased the security premium on oil prices. • India’s festivals, Lunar New Year celebrations in China, are forecasted to augment global oil demand in the upcoming weeks. • Strong retail sales in December and caution from the Fed on interest rate hikes helped shore up the USD, further propping up pressure on oil in USD terms. • Chinese data on GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production will be an important factor while gauging recovery in the world’s second-biggest oil consuming nation. • The other aspect of travel is expected to account for a yearly growth in the consumption of 1.4 million barrels in the oil field. • Oil trading news closely follows market-based economic responses, geopolitical indicators, and any indications of demand. WTI has now fallen into the $77.85 trade, as recent geopolitical tensions easing at the Red Sea have sent crude oil slipping below $78.00. The anticipated halt in Houthi shipping attacks, following a ceasefire in Gaza, reduced the security premium on oil prices, signaling improved stability in the region. However, strong festive travel demand in India and the upcoming Lunar New Year in China are expected to support global oil consumption, offsetting the price decline. Analysts estimate an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day year-on-year, fueled by increased travel activities during such events. WTI Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA Overall economic factors indicate that US retail sales in December were strong and reflect good demand, while the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to further interest rate cuts has strengthened the US Dollar and put downward pressure on USD-denominated oil prices. Traders are also eyeing China’s forthcoming GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data, which could be a boon in determining the recovery of the world’s second largest oil consumer. As geopolitical and economic forces continue to define the oil market, WTI prices are likely to remain responsive to the global cues in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Current spot trading prices for WTI crude stand at around $77.85, which points to bearish momentum as this is unable to stand above the major psychological level at $78.00. Also, on its daily chart, prices are positioned below the 50-day SMA, which signifies that the force is still with the bears, and the relative strength index rests at around 45, and the MACD histogram shows lesser bullish momentum. Support is found at $77.50 and a break below here could be the precursor to further downside to $76.80. On the upside, resistance is still seen near $78.50, with a stronger barrier found at $79.20. A move above here would be needed to confirm a bullish reversal in the short term. Traders should watch for a potential consolidation phase, as geopolitical and economic developments continue to influence market sentiment. FORECAST WTI crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term, influenced by a mix of geopolitical developments, economic data, and seasonal demand trends. The positives, of course are higher expectations on the travel activities that will come during India’s festival season and China’s Lunar New Year, which could propel higher oil consumption, actually making WTI prices approach $79.50 and even $80.00 should this be well supported by demand. More so, positive surprises in China’s upcoming GDP, Retail Sales or Industrial Production would have additional support for prices because China is a huge consumer of crude oil. Downside risks are still present as geopolitical stabilization in the Red Sea region has lowered the security premium on oil. Should the US Dollar continue to

Read More