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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Increases on Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans

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  • March 18, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices inched higher above $67.00 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and upbeat economic news from China. The US military attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen persisting after recent attacks on US warships have further raised energy supply route worries in the Red Sea, increasing transportation and oil prices. At the same time, China’s new economic stimulus proposals to revive domestic consumption and calm markets further bolstered crude prices. But the plus could be constrained by increasing worries about President Trump’s protectionist trade practices, which could slow down world economic growth and energy demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing US military attacks and Houthi strikes in the Red Sea region could disrupt worldwide oil supply routes, placing continued upward pressure on WTI prices. • New moves by China to stimulate consumption and stabilize its economy may lend support to global oil demand and crude prices with a bullish twist. • Escalating worries regarding global trade tensions and inflation following Trump’s belligerent tariff strategy might dampen economic growth and oil demand in the long term. • Diversion of oil shipments because of disruptions in the Red Sea may escalate global energy transport costs, also affecting oil price dynamics. WTI crude oil traders will pay close attention to a number of key drivers affecting price action. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, most notably the continuing US-Houthi rebel conflict in the Red Sea, are still fueling fears of supply chain disruptions and increasing energy transportation costs. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, intended to support domestic consumption and shore up markets, are providing support to global oil demand. But the upside for WTI may be capped by concerns about a global economic slowdown, driven by President Trump’s renewed protectionist trade policies and import tariffs, which could depress business activity and erode consumer confidence. WTI crude oil is supported by rising Middle East tensions and China’s economic stimulus packages. But Trump’s tariff policies and their effects on world growth might keep further upside in oil prices in check. • WTI crude oil trades at close to $67.30 with elevated geopolitical tensions. • US military strikes against Houthi rebels create supply disruption concerns. • Red Sea unrest adds energy transportation costs, lifting oil prices. • China’s latest stimulus plan for the economy favors crude demand assumptions. • China’s retail sales improve, reflecting robust consumption. • Trump’s shift back to protectionist trade policy is driving global economic worries. • Fears of trade war and inflation risks may cap the upside potential in WTI. WTI crude oil prices are receiving support from increasing geopolitical tensions and positive economic cues from leading global economies. The current conflict in the Middle East, including the US’s military intervention aimed at Houthi rebels in Yemen, has increased the red flag of concerns regarding energy supply routes through the Red Sea. Consequently, global oil markets are responding to the possible interruption of crude transport, and attention has been given to supply security and energy prices. The matter has attracted world attention as oil logistics are increasing in complexity and expense because shipping routes have had to be detoured.  WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from geopolitical issues, China’s new economic policies are providing a bulls’ eye optimism for oil demand. The authorities in China introduced new measures for the enhancement of domestic consumption, as well as the stabilization of the stock market and realty markets. With better retail sales data and growing consumer activity, hopes of greater energy demand from the world’s second-largest economy are serving to underpin market confidence. Still, market participants are being held back by continuing global economic uncertainties, notably resulting from revived trade tensions and policy changes, which continue to inform the wider energy outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is experiencing bullish momentum as it remains above the important psychological level of $67.00. The price action indicates firm buying interest, with short-term resistance possible around the $67.50–$68.00 range, and support at $66.50. A clean break above the resistance level can potentially open the gates for more bullishness, while inability to remain above the support level can see a short-term dip. Volumes and patterns in candlestick will be watched intently by traders to measure the strength of the prevailing trend. FORECAST WTI crude oil has potential for further upside if Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue to rise, particularly with ongoing American military intervention and possible supply interruptions in the Red Sea area. Moreover, China’s economic recovery efforts and robust consumption data could drive optimism over more international oil demand. If these supportive underpinnings continue, WTI prices may try to break above the short-term resistance levels and travel towards higher price levels in the near term. On the flip side, WTI may face downward pressure if global economic concerns intensify, particularly due to President Trump’s protectionist trade policies and their impact on inflation and consumer confidence. A slowdown in global growth could reduce energy demand, leading to a potential pullback in crude prices. Furthermore, any de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a drop in Chinese demand could also weigh on market sentiment and push WTI prices lower.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Oil Prices Increase on Back of Tariff Tensions and Fears of Global Economic Slowdown

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  • March 11, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices inched up towards $66.00, but gains seem capped in the face of rising fears of global economic slowdown and rising tariff tensions. Market mood is subdued as U.S. tariffs on major oil trade partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China—and retaliatory tariffs—fuel concerns of dampened oil demand and reduced economic growth. President Trump’s comments labeling the U.S. economy as experiencing a “transition period” have added to recessionary fears. Simultaneously, China, the world’s biggest oil importer, and OPEC+ agreeing to pump more in April pile more uncertainty on oil market fundamentals. KEY LOOKOUTS                    • Increasing U.S. tariffs and retaliatory action by China and Canada have the potential to reduce global oil demand materially and decelerate economic growth. • President Trump’s “transition period” comment is viewed as a warning sign of potential economic disruption influencing energy markets. • China, the world’s largest oil importer, deepening deflation fuels fears of eroding consumption and sustained demand for crude oil. • OPEC+ will boost oil production in April, but potential reversals can happen if market imbalances or demand worries intensify. WTI crude prices have ticked higher, trading around $66.00, but upside momentum is capped as tariff tensions rise and worries about a slowing global economy grow. U.S. trade policy, such as higher tariffs on top oil suppliers China, Canada, and Mexico, has triggered retaliatory action, increasing concerns about softening oil demand. President Trump’s mention of the economy going into a “transition period” has also alarmed markets, suggesting potential economic upheaval on the horizon. At the same time, China’s worsening deflationary pressures and weak consumer demand remain a drag on sentiment, particularly as it remains the world’s largest oil importer. On top of that, OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil output from April, although the action could be abandoned if market conditions deteriorate. WTI oil prices creep closer to $66.00 but gain is constrained in the wake of escalating tariff tensions and worries of a slowdown in the world economy. Weak Chinese demand and the OPEC+ move to add more barrels also taint the outlook in the oil market. • WTI oil prices moved closer to $66.00 but are checked by uncertainty over the economy and trade tensions. • US tariffs on its key oil trade partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico have prompted retaliation, lowering global demand prospects. • President Trump’s comments on a “transition period” are suggestive of a potential economic slowdown, affecting investor sentiment. • China’s deflationary forces and soft consumer demand are worrisome since it is still the world’s largest oil importer. • OPEC+ laid out plans to boost oil output from April but can reverse course if market imbalances arise. • Canada and China’s tit-for-tat with tariffs and electricity price increases introduces more uncertainty into the world oil market. • Investors remain guarded, balancing supply expansion and demand risks against a volatile economic and geopolitical backdrop. International oil markets are under pressure today as trade tensions and economic uncertainty rise. Tariffs imposed by the United States on major oil-exporting nations such as China, Canada, and Mexico have prompted retaliation, raising fears of dampened global demand. Trade tensions not only impact diplomatic ties but also investor sentiment and long-term patterns of energy consumption. Besides, President Trump’s comment on describing the economy as being in a “transition period” has driven speculation regarding potential slowdown, casting further doubts about future oil consumption and growth rates. WTI OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, economic problems in China are piling the pressure. Notwithstanding government policies to boost growth, recent indications reveal ongoing deflationary patterns, reflecting low consumer spending and industrial activity. As the world’s largest oil importer, China’s slowdown would directly influence global energy demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decision to boost oil production in April adds a further dimension, although the coalition is willing to change its position if needed. Generally, the oil market is still trapped between geopolitical tension, trade policy change, and economic weakness among large economies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil indicates tentative recovery but is still held back below major resistance levels around the $66.00 level. The price is trying to stabilize after recent declines, with short-term indicators indicating modest bullish momentum. Traders are keeping a close eye on support levels around $64.50, which, if broken, may lead to further declines. On the upside, a strong break above $66.50 would be required to validate a more robust bullish breakout. However, overall market sentiment remains neutral to bearish, as geopolitical and macroeconomic factors continue to weigh heavily on price action. FORECAST WTI crude oil may witness upward momentum in the short term. A breach above the $66.50 resistance mark may pave the way towards $68.00 and higher. Favorable news like enhanced trade relations, higher demand from key importers like China, or any OPEC+ production cuts can further sustain bullish sentiment and propel prices upwards. On the negative side, further tariff tensions, softer economic reports, or weakening global demand—particularly from China—may put downward pressure on WTI prices. If the price falls below significant support at $64.50, it could drop further to $63.00 or even $61.50 in the near term. Moreover, any oversupply worries due to increased OPEC+ production might boost the bearish momentum and volatility in the oil market.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $66.50 on US Stockpile Build-Up and Trade War Worries

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  • March 6, 2025
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WTI crude prices have declined below $66.50, hitting their lowest level since December 2021, as the increased US crude stockpiles and rising trade tensions dampen sentiment. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles grew by 3.614 million barrels, contrary to market estimates of a drawdown. Moreover, fears of the economic effects of newly imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have also put pressure on oil prices. OPEC+’s move to go ahead with its scheduled production hike from April has also fueled bearish sentiment in the market, triggering concerns of oversupply in the face of softening global demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • The EIA registered a 3.614 million-barrel rise in crude oil inventories, well above market estimates and putting pressure on WTI prices. • Freshly imposed US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada contribute to economic slowdown fears, potentially dampening worldwide crude demand and adding more pressure on prices. • OPEC+ reaffirmed production hikes from April, the first since 2022, sharpening supply fears and pushing WTI lower. • WTI crude touched its lowest since Dec 2021, failing to find traction in bearish fundamentals as traders look to further downside risks. WTI crude prices have fallen below $66.50, weighed down by a bigger-than-anticipated increase in US crude inventories, rising trade tensions, and OPEC+’s move to boost production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US inventories jumped by 3.614 million barrels, sharply different from market expectations of a fall. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the economic effect of fresh US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has caused growing concerns of decreasing demand, further weighing on market sentiment. At the same time, OPEC+ has scheduled its first output increase since 2022, further supporting supply concerns and putting additional pressure on oil prices downwards. With WTI at its lowest level since December 2021, investors are also wary of additional downside risks for the market. WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $66.50 as US crude inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels, more than forecasts. Rising trade tensions and OPEC+’s production hike plan also contribute to bearish pressure, with investors concerned about slowing global demand and supply glut. • Crude oil prices recorded a new low since December 2021 as bearish market sentiment dominated. • EIA indicated a rise in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, significantly higher than market forecasts of a decline. • Imposition of new US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spooked markets with fears of economic slowdown, weighing on oil demand. • OPEC+ plans to boost oil production from April, a first since 2022, putting pressure on supply. • The market had been expected to decline towards a 290,000-barrel drop, but the surprise inventory build triggered a steep price fall. • Technical weakness coupled with deteriorating fundamentals keeps crude oil under pressure from selling. • Market players are keenly monitoring trade trends, supply fundamentals, and economic indicators for future price movements. The recent events in the crude oil market have indeed sent alarmed signals for traders and investors. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) had reported a huge build-up of US crude inventories, with stocks increasing by 3.614 million barrels. This sudden surge has created talks regarding the possibility of oversupply within the market. Furthermore, OPEC+ has made a decision to go ahead with an April production boost, the first such change since 2022. The action is in line with the group’s plan to keep supplies steady in the face of continued economic uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical events, such as recently imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have contributed to the market’s complexity. WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView These tariffs have raised fears of possible economic slowdowns, which would impact worldwide demand for crude oil. Most industries depend on stable trade relationships, and the disruptions caused by tariffs can trigger changes in patterns of production and consumption. Additionally, market players are watching closely policy choices and supply chain shifts that can affect long-term energy demand. As the oil market traverses this transition, eyes are still on critical determinants like world economic performance, geopolitical events, and strategic actions of leading oil-producing countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is under pressure to sell, its price at the lowest since December 2021. The trend in prices is bearish, with the crucial resistance points around $67.00 and $68.50 and immediate support at $65.00. A break below this support level might spark further downside action, building up selling pressure. Moving averages reflect a downward slope, with the price currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to sustained weakness. Also, momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point towards oversold conditions, which might imply short-term consolidation before a direction move. Traders will be observing closely volume trends and any fundamental drivers that might affect price action in the subsequent sessions. FORECAST WTI crude oil prices may witness a possible bounce if market fundamentals favor buyers. Recovery might be seen if US crude inventories report a decrease in subsequent EIA releases, reflecting stronger demand. Moreover, any upbeat news in world trade, for instance, the resolution of tariffs or better-than-expected economic growth projections, may help buoy crude prices. If WTI is able to breach the major resistance levels of $67.00 and $68.50, it might set the stage for a bull run recovery, possibly towards the $70.00 psychological level. In addition, unforeseen supply interruptions or geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing areas can also drive a price rise. WTI is susceptible to additional declines if bearish pressures continue. The sharp increase in US crude stocks, as well as OPEC+ agreeing to boost output from April, contributes to fears of oversupply in the market. If further weakness in demand expectations arises on account of economic uncertainty, especially due to the effects of tariffs on international trade, WTI could persist with the bearish move. A strong break below the support level of $65.00 might exacerbate selling pressure, pushing prices to $63.50 or even lower. Also, technicals indicate crude

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