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Gold Further Rises on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Tensions

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  • September 24, 2025
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Gold continued to rise on Wednesday, propelled by speculation of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions. The metal drew dip-buyers despite a limited recovery in the US Dollar, which limited some upside following overbought conditions. Increased tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened tensions in the Middle East strengthened gold’s safe-haven attract. Traders now look to a series of important US economic indicators, such as New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due to impact near-term price action. In general, however, the least resistant path for gold is still higher, although resistance around the $3,800 level may challenge bullish pressure. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are monitoring US Federal Reserve signals closely, with markets hoping for possible rate cuts in October and December. • Rising tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East are continuing to underpin gold as a safe-haven asset. • Such important releases as New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and PCE Price Index can impact gold and USD price actions. • Gold encounters short-term resistance at the highest level of $3,800, with support of $3,710 to $3,750, which could dictate the future course of action. Gold is still clinging to its gains as speculation of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained geopolitical tensions support the safe-haven metal. Even with a slight recovery in the US Dollar, gold attracted dip-buyers, solidifying its northbound push from the $3,750 area. Traders continue to eye important forthcoming US economic releases, such as New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may shape near-term price action. Despite strong bullish sentiment, resistance at the $3,800 level and support in the region of $3,710–$3,750 will be decisive in setting the direction of XAU/USD’s next move. Gold is underpinned by hopes for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions, drawing dip-buyers despite a small USD recovery. Important resistance at $3,800 and support at $3,710–$3,750 will determine short-term prices. • Gold moves further higher on US Federal Reserve rate cut hopes. • Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflict tensions enhance safe-haven demand. • The modest US Dollar recovery could limit short-term XAU/USD upside. • Gold is drawing dip-buyers in the $3,750 area. • The $3,800 resistance level is poised to challenge bullish support. • Levels of support range from $3,710 to $3,750, providing a solid foundation for dips. • Near-term gold catalysts include the following US economic reports: New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and PCE Price Index. Gold is still gaining momentum as investors act on anticipations of more US Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Recent fighting in Ukraine and the Middle East has strengthened the attractiveness of gold as a haven asset, attracting the interest of purchasers wanting to hedge against uncertainty. The market is focused on Fed cues, with speculators expecting possible monetary easing later this year, which is bolstering gold’s underlying demand. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from geopolitical and monetary policy considerations, the coming US economic numbers would also shape sentiment. The New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index reports are eyed by market participants. In general, the mix of policy expectations, geopolitical tension, and major economic indicators is maintaining high interest in gold as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is floating above the $3,750 level of support, reflecting sustained bullishness in the near term. The short-term charts reflect overbought levels, and higher movements can be expected to encounter resistance near the $3,800 zone. A clear break above this mark can pave the way for further upsides, but a fall below the $3,750 region can probe support around $3,710–$3,700. On the whole, the technical configuration is looking cautiously bullish, with the main levels providing cues for prospective entries and exits for the traders. FORECAST Gold is likely to continue its upward trajectory as long as Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions remain supportive. A sustained move above the $3,800 level could attract further buying interest, potentially extending gains toward new highs in the near term. Strong demand from safe-haven seekers may reinforce bullish momentum, especially if upcoming US economic data remains soft or below expectations. On the negative side, gold may come under pressure if the US Dollar hardens or Fed cues imply a reduced rate cut pace. A breakdown below the $3,750 support area may lead to follow-through selling, which can bring out the $3,710–$3,700 area. These important support levels need to be monitored closely by traders, as a strong break may open the doors to more severe corrective moves.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Pulls Back from All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Rate Verdict: Will Powell Trigger the Next Rally?

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  • September 17, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back from all-time highs around $3,703 as market participants wait with bated breath for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, set to offer a 25 basis point reduction. As of writing, the metal trades at about $3,675, pushed lower by a minor US Dollar rebound but underpinned by muted Treasury yields and robust safe-haven buying. Although profit-taking has pulled recent advances, the overall bullish trend is intact, with the Fed’s policy expectation and Powell’s comment guiding whether Gold resumes its advance towards fresh highs or gets into a sharper correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone expects a 25 bps cut, but even suggestions of more or quicker easing could have a big influence on Gold’s direction. • The tone of Fed Chair regarding inflation, labor market conditions, and future policy direction will be essential for determining market sentiment. • Levels of immediate support are $3,650–$3,645, and resistance levels are $3,675–$3,700, with $3,703 as the primary breakout level. • Geopolitical uncertainties and economic uncertainty remain the drivers of Gold’s bullish thesis in spite of interim corrections. Prices of Gold are settling back from their new all-time highs at around $3,703, with market players waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for the next directional signal. The precious metal is at around $3,675, down fractionally on the day as investors take profits and the US Dollar demonstrates mild firmness. Market expectations are strongly biased towards a 25 basis point rate reduction, but focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s direction and the revised economic projections for hints on the speed of future easing. Even as the recent pullback from Gold exists, its broader bullish trend continues to be underpinned by safe-haven demand, tame Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Gold drops from record highs of about $3,703 as traders wait for the Fed’s rate move, with markets penciled in for a 25 bps cut. XAU/USD is trading at $3,675, with Powell’s direction set to guide the next major move in prices. The pullback notwithstanding, safe-haven demand still remains bullish for the overall outlook. • Gold pulls back from record highs of about $3,703 as traders hold on for the Fed’s policy move. • XAU/USD is trading at about $3,675, down close to 0.35% on the day. • The markets are forecasting a 25 bps Fed rate cut, bringing the funds rate down to 4.00%-4.25%. • Powell’s press conference and new economic projections will be driving market sentiment. • Support in the immediate vicinity is $3,650–$3,645 and resistance of $3,675–$3,700. • Safe-haven buying, muted yields, and geopolitical tensions support Gold’s overall uptrend. • A dovish Fed may initiate new highs, while caution would risk a more significant correction. Gold is giving a breather to its record-breaking rally, as investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The precious metal’s price has been boosted by hopes of looser US monetary policy, ongoing global uncertainties, and healthy safe-haven demand. Investors are keeping a close eye on how the Fed will weigh slowing job growth and sticky inflation since its policy framework will be instrumental in determining the market direction for the remainder of the year. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from monetary policy, Gold is underpinned by broader macroeconomic and political variables. The continued geopolitical tensions, worry about world growth, and increased uncertainty of US politics continue to uphold its status as a safe-haven asset. With major banks expecting several rate cuts through the end of the year, the overall background still supports Gold, and thus the Fed’s guidance is a key event for market players in focus. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is steadying around $3,675 after pulling back from the all-time high of $3,703. Initial support is found at $3,650–$3,645, corresponding to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while the resistance is at $3,675–$3,700. A move below support would risk exposing the $3,620 area, while a rebound might force a retest of the all-time high, with possible extension to $3,750. The RSI at 51 indicates neutral momentum after cooling from overbought, while the MACD reflects declining bullish strength, indicating the Fed’s move is likely to be the catalyst for the next big move. FORECAST If the Fed communicates a dovish tone with the broadly anticipated 25 bps rate cut, Gold may get back into gear and test the record high of $3,703. A firm breakdown above this level may set the path towards $3,750 and beyond, backed by safe-haven demand, muted yields, and forecasts of additional policy accommodation. Increased geopolitical risk or indications that the US economy is weakening can further drive buying interest. Conversely, if Powell’s advice is conservative or reduces expectations on the extent of future cuts, Gold could attract selling pressure again. Breaking below the $3,650 support area could reveal lower levels around $3,620 and the psychological $3,600 level. A sharper US Dollar recovery or a reduction in geopolitical tensions could also deter bullion, bringing in a longer-term corrective phase before any new rally attempt.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Hovers Near Record Levels as US Federal Reserve Rate Cut Spec Bets Lose Strength US Dollar

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  • September 16, 2025
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Gold prices hover around record levels after reaching the $3,690 level, as increasing hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut continue to spur weakness in the US Dollar and shore up the non-yielding metal. Though overbought conditions have driven marginal profit-taking in advance of pivotal central bank announcements this week, such as Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ decisions, downside for Gold is still limited. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to support safe-haven demand, maintaining the overall Gold outlook bullish in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets overwhelmingly anticipate a 25 bps rate cut, with Powell’s cues for subsequent policy actions to influence Gold’s next path. • Policy statements from the BoC, BoE, and BoJ towards the end of this week can introduce volatility in Gold prices. • Overbought RSI readings above 70 indicate modest upside momentum at the $3,700 level, instilling caution for new entries. • Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to offer safe-haven support to Gold. Gold continues in a bullish consolidation close to record levels as investors wait for pivotal central bank announcements this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates by 25 bps, but the focus lies on Powell’s comments on the speed of future easing, which will have a significant bearing on the US Dollar and the path of Gold. While technicals indicate overbought levels that can constrain near-term gains above the $3,700 level, safe-haven demand fueled by recurring geopolitical tensions still buffers the downside, maintaining a positive tone for the precious metal. Gold hovers at all-time highs near $3,690 as Fed rate-cut speculation damps the US Dollar. Overbought levels restrain near-term upside, though geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand remain supportive of the bullish trend. • Gold approached a new record high at around $3,690 in the Asian session on Tuesday. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the US Dollar, supporting Gold’s allure. • Markets expect a 25 bps reduction with an eye on Powell’s hint on additional easing ahead. • Overbought RSI values greater than 70 indicate slim room for near-term upside profits. • Decision from major central banks from BoC, BoE, and BoJ this week could contribute to volatility. • Geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine fighting and Middle East unrest offer safe-haven support. • Firm support levels appear at $3,645 and $3,610, while $3,700 is the major resistance barrier. Gold is trading close to record highs as investors continue to be interested in the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. As markets are mostly pricing in a 25 bps cut, all eyes now turn towards the Fed’s revised economic projections and Powell’s comments, which will likely influence expectations for the pace of easing over the next few months. The dovish bias has been putting significant downward pressure on the US Dollar, lifting demand for the non-yielding precious metal. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the Fed, investors are keeping a close eye on other central bank announcements this week, such as decisions by the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. In addition, increased geopolitical tensions—covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict to renewed Middle East upheaval—are creating further safe-haven demand for Gold. This mix of supportive fundamentals and geopolitical tensions continues to have investor sentiment firmly bullish. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent breakout above a bullish flag pattern is an indicator of strong upside momentum, though the daily RSI remaining above 70 is an indicator of overbought conditions and caution is needed. The $3,700 level has now emerged as a critical psychological resistance, while near-term support is in the form of $3,645, followed by $3,610. A break and hold above $3,700 could lead to further increases, but a break below $3,600 could see a more severe corrective move towards the $3,500 area. FORECAST In the event that the Fed reaffirms a dovish policy and hints at several rate cuts in the near future, Gold can penetrate the $3,700 psychological level and continue its rally. Ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, combined with geopolitical tensions-driven safe-haven demand, may drive more upside momentum and maintain buyers firmly in charge. Conversely, if the Fed provides a dovish outlook or cues a slower pace of easing, Gold can come under profit-taking pressure. A retreat below $3,645 can put the $3,610–$3,600 zone in jeopardy, and a further fall can even put the $3,500 level in the spotlight, particularly if risk appetite picks up in overseas markets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Fails to Hold Above $3,500 on Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitics

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  • September 2, 2025
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Gold continued its streak of gains to a new record high of more than $3,500 on rising bets of a September rate cut by the Fed, ongoing safe-haven demand, and escalating geopolitical tensions. The metal, however, could not find firm acceptance above the important psychological level due to a limited U.S. Dollar recovery and overbought levels dampening upside momentum. Investors now shift their attention to future U.S. macroeconomic statistics, such as the ISM PMI, JOLTS, and Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls report, for new indications on the Fed policy trail and the next gold directional bias. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing market optimism on a September rate cut continues to drive solid buying demand for gold. • Gold finds it hard to gain acceptance above the $3,500 psychological level, with overbought indicators calling for caution. • Russia-Ukraine tensions, Middle East hostilities, and U.S. tariff wars are fueling safe-haven demand. • ISM PMI, JOLTS, ADP jobs report, and Nonfarm Payrolls are some economic indicators that might prescribe the next directional move in gold. Gold is still riding an extremely bullish wave, with expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and ongoing safe-haven flows in the face of global uncertainties. The precious metal briefly touched a record peak above $3,500 but struggled to sustain gains at this psychological level as a modest U.S. Dollar rebound and overbought technical conditions capped further upside. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff disputes remain in focus, keeping demand for gold intact. Investors now await key U.S. economic data releases this week for fresh direction, with particular attention on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Gold reached a new record of over $3,500, boosted by bets on Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand, but was unable to hold gains at the critical level. Future U.S. economic indicators, such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report, will probably decide its future direction. • Gold set a new all-time high at over $3,500 in the Asian session. • Increasing hopes of a September Fed rate cut continue to propel demand. • Safe-haven flows are robust in the face of geopolitical tensions and tariff wars. • The U.S. Dollar’s weak pullback put an end to gold’s upside momentum. • Overbought technical levels warn of caution ahead of further uplift. • Important U.S. economic data releases this week, including NFP, will dictate the next direction. • Support is near $3,440, and resistance is at the $3,500 psychological level. Gold continues to be in the limelight as investors increasingly factor in the possibility of a Federal Reserve cut in interest rates this September, keeping the non-yielding asset in demand. The safe-haven demand for gold has also been strengthened by increased geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and continued uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs. All these have combined to provide a bullish climate for bullion, with market players looking for stability in the face of economic and political instability. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the trend, fears over the Federal Reserve’s independence have joined the fray following recent political meddling and attacks on its leadership. This has further agitated investors, who have gone out looking for refuge in gold. Meanwhile, focus now turns to a string of high-impact U.S. economic data releases due to come out over the next week or so, which should give us more insight into the Fed’s policy direction. In the meantime, gold should continue to hold strong attraction as an investment hedge and as a gauge of generalized market uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent break above the $3,440 resistance level put an end to its multi-month consolidation and indicated very bullish strength. But the metal has not been able to maintain firmly above the $3,500 psychological handle, indicating that bulls are getting nervous at higher prices. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought, signaling the likely probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation before advancing the next leg higher. On the flip side, near-term support rests at $3,475–$3,474, with the $3,440 pivot zone in tow, which should see fresh buying interest if touched. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens again, gold may decisively break above the $3,500 psychological level and set the stage for additional gains. Ongoing safe-haven flows in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions, combined with increasing confidence in a September Fed rate cut, would offer robust tailwinds to buyers. A persistent break above this point may have gold tracing new record highs, as investors want shelter from uncertainty in global politics and monetary policy alike. Conversely, inability to find acceptance at prices above $3,500 might prompt some profit-taking and a corrective pullback. Short-term overbought levels, along with some modest U.S. Dollar improvement, might bear down on prices. Under such circumstances, gold could retest the $3,475–$3,474 level, while a further slide could find support near $3,440. A firm breach through this level could attract more selling pressure and drive the metal towards the $3,410–$3,400 area.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stable as USD Weakens Pre-FOMC; Trade Optimism Limits Gains

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  • July 28, 2025
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Gold prices began the week with a small bearish gap but regained their poise within short order as muted US Dollar demand provided some relief prior to the important Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although dip-buying re-emerged around the $3,312–3,311 level, investor trepidation dominated as a result of forthcoming US macroeconomic data releases such as GDP, PCE, and NFP. Hope for US trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and continued negotiations with China fueled risk appetite, capping gold’s upward potential. In contrast, political stress on the Fed and conflicting rate-cut expectations kept the USD under pressure, providing a lightly supportive environment for the safe-haven metal. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement and forward guidance, which will have a substantial influence on USD strength and gold demand. • Advanced Q2 GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be key in determining the near-term movement of both the USD and gold. • Bullish sentiment from US trade agreements with the EU and Japan, and additional negotiations with China, might persist in keeping a lid on gold’s safe-haven demand. • Political pressure from President Trump on the Fed, particularly on interest rates, could add volatility and direct investor sentiment to the USD and gold. Gold prices opened the week tentatively, filling a small bearish gap amidst tepid demand for the US Dollar as investors awaited the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Though the weaker dollar supported the non-yielding yellow metal to some extent, overall market enthusiasm fuelled by fresh US trade deals with the EU and Japan capped gold’s safe-haven bid. As with major US economic indicators—GDP, PCE, and NFP—due out later this week, traders are likely to exercise caution until more definitive signals come through regarding the Fed’s monetary policy direction and how it translates into both the dollar and gold. Gold prices rallied support around $3,312 as the US Dollar weakened before the key FOMC decision. But recent trade optimism and next US economic releases may cap further gains. Investors are cautious, expecting signals on the Fed’s policy shift. • Gold price filled a small bearish gap, touching support near the $3,312–3,311 area in the Asian session. • Mild USD demand prior to the FOMC meeting supported dip-buying interest in gold. • Investors look to important US data releases this week, including GDP, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls, that may affect USD and gold prices. • Recent US trade agreements with the EU and Japan supported risk sentiment, limiting gold’s safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates unchanged, in spite of political pressure from President Trump for a cut. • Market attention is on the FOMC decision and Powell’s words, which may influence expectations of future monetary policy. • Gold’s rally seems limited in the near term, as optimism in trade offsets the effect of a softer dollar. Gold prices began the new week in a guarded manner, winning modest buy interest as investors waited on the sidelines for the closely watched Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. As the US Dollar retreated from a two-day winning streak, gold attracted some dip-buyers, particularly since markets anticipate direction on future monetary policy. Over all, the market mood remained upbeat, fueled by developments on the trade front recently, including pacts between the US and major partners such as the European Union and Japan. These accords contributed to wider optimism, directing some investors into riskier assets while maintaining interest in conventional safe-havens such as gold in check. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, focus is shifting to a range of high-impact US economic reports due out this week, such as second-quarter GDP, the PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls. These figures are likely to give greater insight into the US economy’s health and may have a significant role to play in determining investor hopes on inflation and direction of policy. In the meantime, political pressure on the Federal Reserve from President Trump’s public calls for rate cuts remains raising questions about the independence of the central bank. This combination of economic and political developments is making it a complicated scene for gold traders, leading to a wait-and-watch scenario without any near-term triggers. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is exhibiting signs of consolidation after closing a small bearish gap, with the price action finding support in the vicinity of the $3,312–3,311 support zone. This zone is drawing dip-buying interest, indicating that buyers are short-term defending this level. But momentum gauges are neutral, indicating investor indecision in advance of important macroeconomic events. A break above the $3,325 resistance level could pave the way for a rebound, while slipping below the $3,311 support area may leave gold vulnerable to further losses. Overall, the technical context remains range-bound until a clear directional catalyst is established. FORECAST Gold can witness bullish momentum if the Federal Reserve hints at a dovish policy during the next FOMC meeting, particularly if Chair Jerome Powell indicates future rate reductions or economic imperfections. Moreover, below-estimate US macroeconomic data—like a deceleration in GDP growth, lower inflation through the PCE index, or a poor NFP report—can drag on the US Dollar, further enhancing gold’s attractiveness. Any rise in geopolitical tensions or market volatility could also push investors back to the safe-haven metal, potentially bringing prices above the $3,325 resistance level and opening the way towards higher targets. Conversely, however, if the Fed retains a more hawkish or neutral tone and rejects the requirement for rate cuts, the US Dollar is likely to regain strength, placing downward pressure on gold. Robust US economic data this week, especially higher-than-expected GDP and jobs data, could further suppress demand for the non-yielding metal. In addition, more optimism about developing global trade, including a possible breakthrough in US-China trade talks, may direct investor attention towards riskier assets, suppressing gold’s safe-haven demand and enhancing the possibility of a pullback towards the $3,300 or even $3,285 support levels.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls On US-Japan Trade Deal Optimism, Yet Fed Uncertainty Remains Bullish Hopeful

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  • July 23, 2025
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Gold prices are still in the doldrums even after a fleeting one-month high, due to optimism over a just-announced US-Japan trade agreement suppressing safe-haven buying. Despite positive global risk appetite and a small recovery in the US Dollar, anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve’s cut-rate trajectory and its autonomy remains supportive. Traders are waiting, however, for leading US housing figures and global PMI prints for further guidance. Technically, recent advances above the $3,400 mark indicate bull momentum is still in place, although further consolidation is likely to be seen close to important resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hopes for the US-Japan trade deal continue to drive risk sentiment higher, lowering demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates and fears regarding its autonomy are weakening the US Dollar, lending some support to gold prices. • Gold’s short-term support is at around $3,400, with resistance established around $3,438–3,452. A breakout above would pave the way for retracing the all-time high of $3,500. • Market players are looking at US Existing Home Sales and world flash PMIs for guidance on economic resilience and possible direction in the XAU/USD currency pair. Gold prices are muted as a positive backdrop to the US-Japan trade agreement continues to improve global risk appetite, making safe-haven assets less attractive. In spite of this, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and whether it can maintain its independence remain supportive of the precious metal. Though the US Dollar displays signs of a modest revamp, its general weakness in the face of diverging economic indicators restricts gold’s downside. The traders now wait for crucial data releases such as US Existing Home Sales and world PMIs for new cues that may have an impact on the subsequent directional movement in the XAU/USD pair. Gold price is still in pressure due to positive sentiment from the US-Japan trade agreement lowering safe-haven demand. Uncertainty over the Fed rate-cut trajectory and a weaker US Dollar, however, continue to provide support. Market players now look to crucial economic data for new directional signals. • Gold price fell after reaching a one-month high during the Asian session, dragged down by better risk appetite. • US-Japan trade deal hopes have improved sentiment, lowering demand for havens such as gold. • US Dollar registers a small rebound from two-week lows, imposing pressure on gold in early trading. • Fears about the independence of the Fed and rate-cutting uncertainty are limiting aggressive gains in USD, supporting gold. • Technical breakout above $3,400 indicates underlying bullish momentum in spite of intraday pullbacks. • Resistance is immediate at $3,438–3,452, with scope for a push toward the $3,500 all-time high should it break. • Market participants look to upcoming US housing data as well as global PMIs for new market direction and sentiment guidance. Gold prices continue to come under pressure following the announcement of a wide-ranging US-Japan trade agreement, with the deal, including mutual tariffs and increased market access for major industries like autos and agriculture, having allayed investor concerns and diverted attention from safe-haven assets like gold. The change in sentiment is indicative of increasing enthusiasm regarding global trade stability and calls for investors to explore higher-risk opportunities. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The political tensions in the United States, however, continue to affect market dynamics. President Trump’s frequent demands for reduced interest rates and attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had rekindled fears over the independence of the central bank. The uncertainty further increases with the pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for an internal review of the Fed. All these advances have kept the US Dollar subdued, providing some underlying support to gold in spite of the brightening global atmosphere. Market players now seek shelter in key economic indicators to get further details on the overall outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently broke above the important horizontal resistance at $3,370 and passed the psychological $3,400 marker, which pointed towards bullish strength. Daily chart oscillators are still positive and bear no signs of overboughtness, which implies the possibility of further gains. The nearest resistance is located at $3,438–3,452, with a continuation past that likely setting the stage for the all-time high at $3,500. On the negative, the $3,400 level is now a solid support, followed by the $3,370 zone, which can cap any further pullback unless intense selling pressure surfaces. FORECAST If the bullish impetus holds good, gold may try to stage a new rally towards the near-term resistance levels of $3,438–3,452. The breakout above this area would most likely trigger further buying interest, paving the way for a move towards the psychological level of $3,500 — seen in April. Any further weakness in the US Dollar, dovish Fed speak, or new geopolitical tensions may serve as major catalysts triggering this positive move. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,400 level of support could induce short-term profit-taking and drive gold back to the $3,370 region — which has since become a key support-turned-resistance. A breakdown here could herald a more pronounced corrective cycle, potentially sending the price to the $3,340 level or below. Yet ongoing uncertainty regarding Fed policy and global risk factors might serve to cushion any significant decline in the immediate future.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Rises Above $3,350 as Fed’s Dovish Shift, Sinking Dollar Fuel Demand for Bullion

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  • July 19, 2025
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Gold prices surged to above $3,350 in Friday’s North American session after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and a weakening US Dollar fueled demand for bullion. Waller’s endorsement of a possible July rate cut led the US Treasury yields down and made non-yielding instruments such as gold relatively more attractive. In contrast, the US Dollar Index declined to 98.48, making gold more attractive to foreign investors. Bullish sentiment from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, which showed weakening long-term inflation expectations, also propelled gold’s bullishness. Investors are now looking at upcoming US economic reports for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold price climbed to $3,353, buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller who supported a rate cut in July. • US Dollar Index fell to 98.48, making gold more desirable to foreign investors since it becomes less expensive in other currencies. • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, while long-term inflation expectations relaxed, reinforcing the attractiveness of gold. • US Treasury yields softened, with 10-year yield decreasing to 4.421%, further increasing demand for non-interest-paying gold. Gold prices surged above the $3,350 mark on Friday, driven by a weaker US Dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s support for a potential rate cut at the July meeting sparked a decline in US Treasury yields, which in turn lifted demand for the non-yielding metal. Adding to the positive sentiment, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated better economic optimism and a decline in long-term inflation expectations. The weaker Dollar, as evidenced by the decline in the DXY to 98.48, also made gold more attractive to foreign buyers, adding to upward pressure on the precious metal. Gold rose above $3,350 after Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments increased rate cut hopes and pushed US Treasury yields down. A softer US Dollar also underpinned gold prices, making the metal more appealing to foreign investors. •  Gold price advanced to $3,353 after dovish words from Fed Governor Christopher Waller favoring a July rate cut. •  The US Dollar Index slid to 98.48, enhancing the allure of gold for foreign investors. •  US Treasury yields fell, hence non-yielding instruments such as gold became more desirable. •  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, signaling increasing optimism in the US economy. •  Long-run inflation expectations relaxed, aiding gold’s safe-haven appeal. •   Traders have priced in 45 basis points of Fed easing by the end of the year, higher than 42 bps before. •  US economic releases, such as housing data, PMIs, and unemployment claims, next week could determine the direction of gold. Gold prices were heavily supported this week as bets for a July Fed rate cut strengthened. A dovish turn from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that inflation is decelerating and the economy can use easier monetary policy, underpinned the price. His comments assisted in altering market sentiment, raising the prospect of policy easing by year-end. This shift in belief has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly as investors want stability in a possibly falling interest rate environment. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to gold’s momentum were last week’s figures in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which indicated Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy. Long-term inflation expectations were also revised lower, signaling increasing confidence in price stability. These trends combined with a muted US Dollar have made gold a growing choice for investors seeking to hedge eventual uncertainty while maintaining capital. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is holding a bullish chart pattern at the $3,350 level, with traders looking to key resistance points. A breakout above the weekly peak of $3,377 would open the way for a move into $3,400 and possibly the June 16 high of $3,452. A subsequent breakout would set the stage for a test of the all-time high at $3,500. The downside, however, is support at $3,300, which a break below might prompt a fall to the June 30 low of $3,246, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average coming in around $3,209. FORECAST Should bullish momentum prevail, gold may break out of the near-term resistance at $3,377, clearing the way for a rise towards $3,400. A sustained move above this point would indicate robust market optimism, pushing the price to the June 16 high of $3,452. If further support comes from economic data or Fed commentary on a dovish bias, gold could challenge the psychological level of $3,500 in the near future. On the other hand, if gold cannot maintain above the $3,350 region and drops below $3,300, it may provoke an even more serious correction. The second line of support would be near $3,246, the June 30 low, then the 100-day Simple Moving Average near $3,209. A reinforcing US Dollar, hawkish Fed cues, or resilient economic reports can all induce downward pressure on the metal.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Jumps Towards $3,340 As Global Trade Tensions Rise and Safe-Haven Demand Increases

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  • July 11, 2025
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The prices of gold (XAU/USD) continued their three-day winning streak, rising to almost $3,340 levels due to renewed global trade tensions, which triggered safe-haven demand. The rise comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of significant 35% tariffs against Canada and the potential to add 15–20% duties on other countries, including the EU, has shaken world risk sentiment. Market players are thus keeping a keen eye on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June, which may further drive the direction of gold prices, particularly considering that the metal has a good track record during inflationary times. KEY LOOKOUTS • President Trump’s action to impose a 35% tariff on Canada and potential additional tariffs on the EU may heighten global trade tensions, fueling safe-haven gold demand. • The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for June will be a key gold catalyst, as elevated inflation usually buoys precious metal prices. • Gold is approaching a critical resistance around $3,500; a convincing breakout above here would send prices into new realms, with subsequent targets at $3,550 and $3,600. • On the bearish side, monitor support at $3,245; a close below here might send prices lower to $3,200 and $3,121. Gold prices have risen to near $3,340 as investors buy safe-haven assets in response to rising global trade tensions. U.S. President Trump’s 35% tariffs declaration against Canada and the potential for further duties against the European Union have unsettled market sentiment, decreasing risk appetite for riskier assets. The geopolitical risk has made gold more attractive, particularly as investors watch for influential U.S. inflation data for June. As inflation worries still persist, the coming CPI report can decisively influence gold’s movement, perhaps solidifying its upward momentum if price pressures continue. Gold prices move towards $3,340 as new U.S. tariff threats drive safe-haven demand. The markets now focus on the next U.S. CPI data, which might further drive gold’s momentum. •  Gold continues its streak, increasing for the third straight day and getting close to $3,340. •  U.S. President Trump institutes 35% tariffs on Canada, triggering global trade tensions. •  More EU tariffs are anticipated, further adding to market uncertainty. •  Safe-haven demand surges as investors flee riskier assets. • Gold nears critical technical levels, with resistance at $3,500 and support at $3,245. • June U.S. CPI data is a prime impending trigger that will determine gold’s next move. •  RSI reflects sideways movement, while a breakout or breakdown may determine short-term direction. Gold prices have gained solid traction as investors respond to escalating global trade tensions fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s most recent tariff actions. The imposition of 35% tariffs on imports from Canada, as well as threats of further tariffs on the European Union, has caused broad-based market anxiety. Consequently, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold has increased sharply, reflecting investor nervousness amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This ramp-up in gold demand is also fuelled by hopes for U.S. inflation, with markets looking intensely at the imminent publication of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics. During periods of high inflation or economic turmoil, gold is historically considered a sure thing for safekeeping. The increasing fears surrounding disrupted global trade and possible domestic cost pressures are turning gold into a desirable option for investors looking for stability in a volatile world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is hovering close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of about $3,330, indicating possible stabilization following recent advances. That said, it is still below the top line of an Ascending Triangle pattern, with the main resistance at about the $3,500 level. A decisive move above this level would set the stage for new highs, but inability to hold above support around $3,245 could initiate a pullback to $3,200 or $3,121. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, trading between 40 and 60, and this indicates the absence of strong short-term directional momentum. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions keep increasing and inflation persists, gold may breach the $3,500 psychological level. A breakout above this level, once confirmed, can trigger a healthy bullish move, possibly setting its sights on $3,550 and even $3,600 in the near future. Sustained demand for safe havens, combined with dovish central bank signals, would add strength to this upward move. Conversely, should trade tensions subside or future U.S. CPI figures indicate tempering inflation, gold can reverse recent gains. A fall below the important support level of $3,245 might unleash further losses towards $3,200 and $3,121. Even a more robust U.S. dollar or more hawkish Fed statements might exert downward pressure on gold prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Sparkles at $3,330 as Trade War Uncertainties and Weaker USD Increase Safe-Haven Buying

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  • July 5, 2025
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Gold prices remain in the spotlight, trading above $3,330 and heading for a more than 1.5% weekly increase, as an escalation of global trade tensions and a softer US Dollar increase safe-haven buying. US President Trump’s announcement of tariffs between 10% and 70% to kick in on August 1 has increased market wariness, and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks regarding potential retaliatory tariffs in 100 countries further fueled uncertainty. Strong US labor fundamentals and stiff Treasury yields notwithstanding, expectations of a Federal Reserve pause in interest rates are sustaining bearish optimism. Investors are waiting with bated breath for future FOMC minutes and jobless claims releases for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders await the effect of Trump’s suggested 10% to 70% tariffs and their effect on global trade and safe-haven investments such as gold. • As there is decent labor data and consistent yields, traders are waiting for hints in future FOMC meeting minutes on any likely rate actions. • Declining US Dollar in the face of growing national debt and conservative Fed rhetoric may continue to buoy gold prices. • The key resistance remains at $3,400 and $3,452, while a break below $3,300 may pave the way towards $3,246 or even $3,120. Gold is holding firm above $3,330, rising more than 1.5% this week as investors move towards safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and fears of trade wars. The revelation of possible US tariffs of 10% to 70%, to be rolled out on August 1, triggered fears of the strain on world economies, further damaging the US Dollar and supporting bullion demand. Though robust US labor statistics and solid Treasury yields will constrain upside potential, hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve policy are sustaining gold’s rally. Traders now anticipate FOMC minutes and jobless claims for better hints at monetary policy. Gold prices creep up past $3,330 with trade war concerns and a weakening US Dollar driving safe-haven demand. Investors will be waiting for important Fed cues next week, with FOMC minutes and jobless claims being watched. • Gold is trading above $3,330, more than 1.5% higher for the week, on safe-haven demand. • Trump imposes tariffs of 10% to 70%, starting August 1, raising specter of trade war. • US Treasury Secretary expects retaliatory tariffs from about 100 nations. • US Dollar drops under pressure from surging national debt and policy uncertainty. • US labor market remains resilient, but private sector hiring weakens in face of economic prudence. • Gold’s rally limited by solid US Treasury yields, with the 10-year at 4.338%. • Technical levels to monitor: Resistance at $3,400/$3,452, support at $3,300/$3,246. Gold is picking up steam as investors flock to the yellow metal for safe haven as geopolitical and economic tensions grow. Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of future tariffs between 10% and 70% on various nations has set the markets in a state of panic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that almost 100 nations were potentially in the crosshairs for reciprocal tariffs, which has heightened fears over global trade disruptions. These events have boosted demand for gold, a classic safe-haven investment, particularly as market players prepare for possible ripple effects on economies. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the trade tensions, political events and fiscal issues in the US are contributing to the allure of gold. The suggested extension of the 2017 tax reductions through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit, which could weaken the US Dollar in the long run. At the same time, geopolitical discussions—like Trump’s recent talks with Russia and Ukraine leaders—show that there is still instability, driving investors deeper into assets such as gold. As markets are taking in these wider risks, gold continues to reap the rewards of acting as a hedge against uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still consolidating above the pivotal $3,300 support level, and momentum gauges such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are holding near the middle ground, hinting at a slowdown in bull runs. Gold has not broken out above its last cycle high of $3,452, which implies that the buyers are going to require stronger drivers to turn the prices higher. A breakout above $3,400 and $3,452 would confirm renewed bullish strength, targeting the all-time high near $3,500. On the downside, sustained weakness below $3,300 could open the door for a pullback toward $3,246, a critical level for maintaining the broader uptrend. FORECAST If the geopolitical tensions rise further and the US Dollar stays weak, gold may return to strong bullish momentum. A clear break above the $3,400 level would most probably attract more buyers, with the subsequent target lying at $3,452—the former cycle high. Breaking above this resistance area might move prices towards the psychological benchmark of $3,500, particularly if the Federal Reserve sticks to a dovish policy or economic uncertainty accelerates. On the other hand, if US data remains to be resilient—specifically in labor markets and inflation—and Treasury yields continue to advance, gold can come under selling pressure. A break below the $3,300 support level might initiate a more profound correction down to $3,246. If this support level also breaks, further losses might result in a test of the $3,120 area where buyers might re-enter to protect the longer-term bullish trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Poised for First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks on US Fiscal Jitters and Trade Uncertainty

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  • July 4, 2025
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Gold price is set to record its first weekly gain in three weeks, boosted by US fiscal jitters and revived trade uncertainty. Despite a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report that reduced hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, the US Dollar struggled to sustain gains amid rising fears over the country’s long-term debt trajectory following President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. Additionally, upcoming tariff changes and holiday-thinned trading conditions are keeping market participants cautious, yet the underlying safe-haven demand continues to support the precious metal, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising fears over long-term debt due to President Trump’s tax and spending bill are weighing on the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven demand for Gold. • A more-than-anticipated NFP reading has dulled near-term rate cut expectations, but softer wage growth leaves the door open for policy relaxation in the latter part of the year. • Gold price is battling a critical resistance level around the $3,352–$3,355 levels; a convincing break above may spark additional gains towards $3,400. • With US markets being shut on Independence Day, low trading volumes can induce volatility and risk aversion among XAU/USD traders. Gold price stays strong as it targets its first weekly advance in three weeks, supported by rising US fiscal tensions and ongoing trade-related volatilities. While the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls report briefly boosted the US Dollar and cooled speculation of an imminent Fed rate cut, the signing into law of President Trump’s tax-reduction and spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion to national debt, has lifted longer-term economic worries, topping USD gains. Combined with imminent tariff realignments and holiday-thinned market liquidity, these demand drivers still provide support to Gold safe-haven demand and maintain its near-term outlook biased to the upside. Gold price remains robust, underpinned by US fiscal worries and trade uncertainty even in the face of more-than-expected jobs data. Holiday-thinned market liquidity and the proximity of resistance to the 100-SMA may suppress the upside but overall remain bullish. • Gold is set to end a two-week losing streak, which will reflect renewed bullish momentum. • Fears surrounding President Trump’s spending bill and its $3.4 trillion debt burden are putting pressure on the US Dollar. • Stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data cut short-term Fed rate cut speculation but failed to fully bolster the Dollar. • Lower wage growth tempered inflation concerns, keeping hopes high for easing Fed policy in the future. • Gold finds it difficult to move past the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart at $3,352–$3,355, a pivotal zone. • US Independence Day has trimmed market liquidity, and traders are being cautious. • Continued trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to fuel demand for Gold. Gold is poised to break its two-week losing spree, underpinned by a favorable fundamental environment fueled by increasing fiscal worries in the United States and continued worldwide trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s huge tax-cut and spending bill’s approval has sent alarm bells ringing about the nation’s long-term debt horizon, shattering the US Dollar and causing an uptick in demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. Also, uncertainty over planned tariff increases has further boosted investor appetite for Gold, with markets getting ready for prospective trade disruptions before the July 9 deadline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figure temporarily supported the US Dollar earlier by suppressing short-term Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Slower wage gains in the same release, though, smoothed out inflation worries, and left the window open for potential later-year monetary easing. With US markets shut on Independence Day, trading has been subdued but the underlying drivers still support a bullish sentiment in Gold as investors flock towards it for safety against increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is finding it difficult to clear the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which is behaving as a good resistance around the $3,352–$3,355 level. A breakdown past this level may set the stage for an extended rally to the $3,366 area and, possibly, the $3,400 psychological level. To the downside, near-term support comes in around the $3,326–$3,325 area, followed by more robust support at $3,311 and $3,300. A collapse below these levels may turn the tide in the bears’ direction, threatening to expose the $3,270 support zone and even the monthly low of $3,248 if the pressure from the bears mounts. FORECAST If Gold price is able to break and hold above the 100-period SMA in the vicinity of $3,355, it may create fresh bullish momentum. This will most probably pave the way for a move towards the next resistance at $3,366, followed by the psychological hurdle of $3,400. A long-term rally above these levels with a weak US Dollar and safe-haven demand could further push the price towards $3,420 in the short term. Conversely, a failure to breach the 100-SMA resistance can draw Gold back towards the immediate support level at $3,325. Breaking through this area can invite additional selling pressure, taking Gold down to $3,311 and further to the key $3,300 level. If selling momentum gathers pace, the fall can go as far as the $3,270 level, with a possible retest of the monthly low around $3,248.

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