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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Increases and Geopolitical Trade Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 1, 2025
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Gold prices are moving higher, reaching a three-day high of around $3,333 on increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased geopolitical trade uncertainties. The US Dollar dipped to its lowest point since February 2022, as the downwardly pressured economic data, fears of a widening fiscal deficit, and Trump’s hawkish trade approach before the July 9 tariff expiration day weighed. Safe-haven interest in gold is also underpinned by political tensions and volatility around key US macroeconomic events during the week, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and highly expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are factoring in a 74% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, with scope for easing as early as July, which continues to sustain gold prices. •  The USD has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 on the back of growing fiscal worries and dovish expectations of monetary policy. •  Trump’s latest tariff threat on several nations may ignite safe-haven buying and push gold even higher. •  Major releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be keenly observed for new direction in USD and gold price movements. Gold prices are still rising as investors react to increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global trade tensions. The weakening US Dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, reflects market concerns over the Fed’s potential policy easing and the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold are uncertainties surrounding former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, with the July 9 deadline looming. Traders also look toward critical US economic reports this week—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Nonfarm Payrolls report—that may continue to impact gold’s near-term trend. Gold prices rise with Fed rate cut expectations and trade uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand. A softer US Dollar and threatened tariffs by Trump further bolster the bullish case. Traders now look to critical US data, including the NFP report, for additional guidance. • Gold prices increase for the second day in a row, hitting approximately $3,333 on the back of firm safe-haven demand. • Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut before September increase gold and push the US Dollar down. • The USD declines to its lowest level since February 2022 as a result of fiscal worries and poor economic data. • Trump’s fresh trade warnings prior to the July 9 deadline contribute to global uncertainty and underpin gold. • US Treasury Secretary hints at potential tariff increases from 11% to 50%, reinforcing market conservativeness. • Market participants are looking for important US macroeconomic releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and NFP. • Technical resistance is around $3,350–$3,370 and major support is at $3,245–$3,200. Gold remains a focus for investors as world markets respond to a combination of economic and political events. Increasing bets the Federal Reserve will follow quickly with rate cuts in coming weeks have reduced the US Dollar, boosting the allure of gold as a non-yielding haven asset. In the meantime, recent indicators of shrinking consumer spending and worries about a growing federal deficit are putting further pressure on the central bank to step in, supporting the market’s dovish bias. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a significant part in favoring gold. Former President Donald Trump has intensified his trade rhetoric, threatening higher tariffs on nations that don’t seal agreements before the July 9 deadline. Those threats and the prospect of rising trade tensions have contributed to investor wariness. As markets expect major US economic releases this week, gold is preferred by traders who want stability in the face of economic and policy-related uncertainties. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is depicting a consistent bullish inclination while it is trading close to a three-day high level of $3,333. The nearest resistance can be seen in the $3,324–$3,325 range, a breakout above which might pave the way for additional upsides towards the $3,350 and $3,370 levels. Long-term strength above these levels can push the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, initial support comes at $3,300, followed by stronger support around $3,276 and $3,245. A fall below these levels may switch momentum back in the favor of the bears and reveal the $3,210–$3,200 zone. FORECAST Gold could pierce near-term resistance at the $3,325 level and target the next significant barrier at $3,350. A clear breach above this level could set the stage for the $3,370 area, and eventually, the psychological $3,400 threshold. Sustained dollar weakness, added assurance on Fed rate cut expectations, and growing worldwide trade tensions would more than likely drive further rises in gold prices. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,300 support level may invite a bearish pullback, revealing the $3,276 and $3,245 levels. A break below these supports might speed up the fall towards the $3,210–$3,200 range. Further downside risk might emerge if future US macroeconomic indicators surprise to the upside, alleviating pressure on the Fed and bolstering the US Dollar, hence diminishing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

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  • June 27, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Above $3,300 on Fed Uncertainty and Tenuous Israel-Iran Ceasefire

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  • June 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) enjoys a modest intraday bullish bias, trading well above the $3,300 level on mixed market directions. Although expectations for impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts keep the US Dollar in check and provide support to the non-yielding metal, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a generally upbeat risk sentiment cap strong upside strength. Lack of confidence in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire introduces a geopolitical risk premium that underlies gold’s safe-haven status. Market participants now look to major US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, jobless claims, and the PCE Price Index, which can offer further guidance for the USD and prices of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • At least 50 bps of Fed rate reductions by year-end are being priced in by markets, with attention on whether July will see a move and the testimony by Powell for additional indications. • Ongoing anxiety regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire and looming concerns about renewed hostilities are continuing to fuel gold’s safe-haven demand. • Traders look to Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the PCE Price Index later this week, potentially altering Fed expectations and affecting USD and gold. • Strong support at around $3,300 with scope for downside towards $3,245 if broken; upside limited near $3,370–$3,400 unless robust bullish momentum is seen. Gold price stays firm above the $3,300 level on Wednesday, buoyed by subdued US Dollar sentiment and persisting geopolitical volatility around the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Although the precious metal is buoyed by safe-haven buying and anticipations of rate cuts by the Fed this year, dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have cooled bullish enthusiasm. Investors seem guarded before critical US macroeconomic releases, such as GDP numbers and the PCE Price Index, which may determine forthcoming Fed policy and, therefore, affect gold’s short-term direction. Gold price remains above $3,300 despite conflicting signals from Fed rhetoric and geopolitical tensions. Soft USD and tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in place to underpin safe-haven demand for the metal. Bulls remain on hold pending crucial US data releases that will determine the direction in Fed policy and gold pricing. •  Markets expect at least 50 bps of rate cuts by end of year, keeping the USD on back foot. •  Additional information from the Fed Chair will provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy direction. •  The major releases such as Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and PCE Index will have an impact on sentiment. •  Any escalation in tensions may push gold demand towards safe-haven. •  Gold’s direction is still very much dependent on USD weakness or strength. •  Keep an eye on price action in the $3,300 support and $3,370–$3,400 resistance areas. • Short-term gold price direction will be influenced by equity market trends and geopolitical announcements. Gold price remains in a modestly bullish stance, underpinned by increasing market optimism that the Federal Reserve can start its rate-cutting journey towards the end of this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s comments in recent times presaged a subtle move towards easing policy, yet investors are still eyeing the general economic context, which indicates decelerating inflation and weakening labor markets. This kindles hopes of policy accommodation, which usually helps non-yielding assets such as gold. Uncertainty in global markets also preserves the safe-haven credentials of gold despite overall sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events also prove instrumental in sustaining support for gold. Although a formal ceasefire has been observed between Israel and Iran, recent cross-border military operations by both nations have thrown its longevity into doubt. The tensions are a promoter of a risk-averse environment, pushing investors to hold on to safe-haven assets. In the meantime, some expectation is building for major US economic data releases this week, which may have implications both for the Federal Reserve’s positioning and subsequent market action. Therefore, gold is still in the spotlight as traders weigh interest rate expectations against continuing geopolitical threats. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price has recently broken below a short-term rising channel, confirming the potential for a change in momentum to the downside. Oscillators on the daily and 4-hourly charts are gaining bearish momentum, reflecting increasing pressure from the bears. The level of major resistance is now close to the $3,368–$3,370 area, which was earlier acting as channel support. Unless bulls overcome this level with strength, any rallies can be met with selling. On the bearish side, a clear break below the $3,300 level can pave the way for fall towards the $3,245–$3,210 support level. FORECAST If the geopolitics further deteriorate or if future US macroeconomic indicators continue to support the expectation of a near-term Fed rate cut, gold may regain positive bullish traction. A follow-through above the $3,370 resistance band could trigger new buying interest, prompting the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. Additional strength above this level may set the stage for a test of the $3,420–$3,450 region, particularly if the US Dollar further depreciates. Conversely, if the ceasefire in Israel-Iran persists and future US economic releases are stronger than anticipated, it might reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. If the price breaks below the support level of $3,300, it would be a bearish indicator and might result in a fall to $3,245. Sustained selling pressure can continue the decline even lower to the $3,210–$3,200 level, while further losses can be envisaged if the US Dollar gains traction or Fed rate cut expectations are diminished.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Under Pressure: Hawkish Fed Weighs on XAU/USD Despite Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainties

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  • June 20, 2025
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Gold prices continue to trade under selling pressure and are on the cusp of weekly losses, powered largely by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause and the stronger US Dollar. Even while backed by supportive drivers like elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and existing trade uncertainties—notably regarding U.S. tariff threats—safe-haven demand for gold has been unable to muster much potency. Although these risks might cap further downside, technicals indicate the possibility of a more severe correction unless there is robust dip-buying. General market sentiment remains cautious as investors balance meager rate cut hopes against rising global risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve’s inflation hawk and diminished expectations for rate reductions continue to underpin the US Dollar and put gold prices under pressure. • Increased Iran-Israel conflict, with potential U.S. intervention, would rekindle demand for the gold safe-haven. • Threatened U.S. tariffs, especially in the pharma space, and Trump’s “liberation day” deadline of July 9 can cause market volatility. • Monitor significant support levels around $3,323-$3,322 and resistance around $3,375 and $3,400 for short-term directional indications. Gold prices continue to be underpinned as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias supports the US Dollar and reduces the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and anticipated trade uncertainties, especially surrounding future U.S. tariffs, are helping support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Investors are sitting on the sidelines, weighing scant rate cut hopes against the threat of an escalation of broader conflict in the region. The technical picture also leaves the way open for further decline unless major support levels trigger fresh buying interest. Gold lingers under pressure from a hawkish Fed and firm US Dollar, on course for weekly losses. Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty should cap downside, but technical pressure remains. • Gold price under strain from Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause. • US Dollar strengthens, diminishing demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. • Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven demand. • Trade uncertainty rises ahead of the July 9 deadline for U.S. tariffs. • Fed forecasts two rate cuts by the end of 2025, capping gold potential. • Technicals signal further downside to the $3,300 support level. • Resistance at $3,375 and $3,400, with a possible retest of the $3,451 high if mood changes. Gold prices remain under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone that has supported the US Dollar’s strength. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it indicated reduced rate cuts in the future, that dulled investor demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. Such a policy sentiment has outshined some market-friendly factors such as persistent geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties and has held gold on a weaker path during the week. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, increasing world risks are providing a counterweight to bearishness. Mounting tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel have raised regional stability fears, which could attract investor interest back to safe-haven assets. Furthermore, threatened U.S. tariffs and trade policy changes under the Trump administration are introducing new uncertainty into the markets. These considerations may inspire hedge positioning by investors, as the wider risk environment remains extremely fluid. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS XAU/USD has fallen below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which indicates short-term weakness. The price is moving towards significant support close to the lower edge of a short-term uptrend channel, at about the $3,323–$3,322 region. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are weakening, while on hourly charts there is increasing bearish momentum, indicating the possibility of further falls. On the other hand, initial resistance is evident at $3,374–$3,375, followed by $3,400; a prolonged break above this level may lead to a retest of the recent high of around $3,451. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions do not abate and trade uncertainties further increase, gold will likely recapture its safe-haven status, driving fresh purchasing interest. The sustained break above the $3,375 resistance level would then pave the way for a rise towards the $3,400 psychological mark. Should bullish momentum continue to gather pace, the price would revisit the recent high of $3,451, and even target the all-time high of $3,500 in the near future. On the negative side, sustained strength in the US Dollar driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy can continue to put pressure on gold. A break below the $3,323–$3,322 support zone could trigger intensified selling, driving prices towards the $3,300 level. If bearishness persists, the metal can move into a further correction phase, especially if risk mood improves and rate cut hopes are confined.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Back from Two-Month Highs Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty over Fed Policy

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  • June 16, 2025
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Gold prices fell back slightly after hitting almost a two-month high during the Asian session, as a upbeat risk appetite in equity markets took its toll on the safe-haven commodity. In spite of the decline, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran, still provide support for gold. Also, market participants are holding back in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to give new guidance on interest-rate reductions with evidence of easing U.S. inflation. As a moderate gain in the U.S. dollar places a limit on further advancement, overall gold’s downside is circumscribed, technicals indicating that any slide will offer new buying opportunities. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate prognosis, and this may have a strong impact on the U.S. dollar as well as gold prices. • The Israeli-Iran conflict persists in offering safe-haven support to gold amidst general market uncertainty. • Any major movement in the USD, particularly around its recent lows, could have a direct bearing on direction of gold prices. • Major resistance is at the $3,452-$3,500 level, and support around $3,400 and $3,360 levels of the uptrend channel. Gold prices have softened slightly after hitting a two-month high, weighed down by the positive sentiment in Asian equities. Nevertheless, the metal still finds support in heightening Middle Eastern tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors are also eyeing closely the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may give new signals about future interest rate cuts as there were signs of slowing U.S. inflation. Although the U.S. dollar’s modest recovery has limited some of gold’s advances, the downside is still constrained as traders remain jittery in anticipation of major economic and geopolitical events. Gold prices drop back from two-month high as Asian stocks climb, but safe-haven buying continues amidst tensions in the Middle East. FOMC meeting awaited for direction on prospective U.S. interest rate cuts, capping the downside for gold. • Gold prices decline slightly after reaching a two-month high in Asian trading. • Encouraging risk appetite in the equity markets suppresses the safe-haven demand for gold. • Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to underpin gold prices. • Traders tread carefully in anticipation of next week’s FOMC policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to leave the rates unchanged but is likely to indicate future cuts as inflation weakens. • The U.S. dollar gets a modest boost, capping gold’s near-term upside. • Key levels are resistance at $3,452-$3,500 and support at $3,400-$3,360. Gold prices are seeing mild pressure after they hit their highest level in almost two months. The positive mood in the Asian equity markets has somewhat reduced the allure of the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel remains a driving force for investor demand for safer assets. The military skirmishes between the two countries have intensified, with both sides firing at each other, contributing to global market anxiety and sustaining gold in general support. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, attention is turning to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold but investors are seeking clues over potential future cuts after inflation slowed and the economy was shown to have pockets of weakness. The Fed’s guidance will be influential in setting up expectations for the rest of the year, and any dovish sentiments can further impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the $3,400 threshold recently, indicating bullish vigor underpinned by the development of a rising trend channel on short-term charts. Bulls are still in control according to positive oscillators on the daily chart, and resistance is found at the $3,452-$3,453 levels. A distinct breakout above this level could potentially lead to a retest of the all-time high around the $3,500 psychological level. On the other hand, any pullback would likely find firm support around $3,400, and a sustained fall below $3,360 would invalidate the bullish setup, and it could switch the near-term bias towards sellers. FORECAST Should gold be able to break over the recent high in the $3,452-$3,453 region, it would potentially set the stage for a challenge of the psychological $3,500 mark. A convincing move above this obstacle might invite new buying interest and drive prices still higher, potentially continuing the current bullish trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions or a dovish Federal Reserve comment could serve as catalysts for sustained upside momentum. On the negative side, nearest support is seen at the $3,400 level, and subsequent weakness could push gold down towards the $3,360 zone, which is the lower end of the current uptrend channel. A move below this level with some conviction would change market sentiment and attract more selling pressure, potentially creating a more severe correction in the near term.

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Gold

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Falters Below $3,345 as Markets Wait for US CPI Report

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  • June 11, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is moderately higher, holding on to a slightly weaker US Dollar as investors go cautious in anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Although it posted gains, the commodity is encountering strong resistance around the $3,345 area, after a recent retreat from the previous week’s $3,400 top. Market sentiment is still weak following doubt about the sustainability of the US-China trade deal, with potential for further volatility if inflation data next week exceeds expectations. Technically, gold still seems to be in a corrective A-B-C sequence with the ability to test higher levels before continuing its southward trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is keenly observing the next US Consumer Price Index reading, which has the potential to shape inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. • Concern about the longevity of the US-China “framework” accord remains over market sentiment and go-safe-haven demand • Gold is experiencing stiff resistance around the $3,345 level, with further upside limited unless there is a breakthrough. • The ongoing A-B-C corrective phase points toward eventual short-term gains to $3,375 before bearish momentum resumes. Gold prices are trading with a modest positive bias as the US Dollar tapers globally, fueled by investor wariness prior to the highly anticipated US CPI report. XAU/USD, still under pressure below $3,345 resistance, continues to fail to revisit last week’s highs of around $3,400. The subdued market reaction to the US-China trade agreement, owing to its vagueness, contributes to the uncertainty. With inflation numbers set to bring in new signals, traders are being cautious, holding gold in a tight range of consolidation. Gold maintains modest gains as the US Dollar falters in anticipation of significant US CPI numbers. Resistance at $3,345 is holding back further gains, as doubts about the US-China trade agreement have investors in wait-and-see mode. Markets look to inflation numbers for the next move. • Gold (XAU/USD) makes modest gains in the face of widespread US Dollar weakness. • Resistance at $3,345 still caps further up-limits. • Investors are hesitant in anticipation of the release of US CPI. • Doubts surrounding US-China trade deal augment gold’s safe-haven buying. • Technicals indicate an ongoing A-B-C corrective pattern. • Potential short-term price higher towards $3,375 before possible further downswing. • Critical support is at $3,290 and then $3,245. Gold is supported since market players take a defensive approach prior to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The inflation reading is likely to give vital clues regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve going forward. With the uncertainty of price pressure and potential interest rate hikes, investors are shunning big positions, especially in the US Dollar, to provide indirect support to gold. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the newly signed US-China trade deal, presented as a “framework” to ease tensions, has not been able to generate robust market optimism. Insufficient tangible specifics and doubts over the long-term sustainability of the deal have kept the market mood cautious. This prevailing uncertainty continues to drive demand for safe-haven instruments such as gold, with investors seeking cover against possible global economic turbulence. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is in a corrective phase after its pullback from the recent high at around $3,400. Price is forming a narrow range, with resistance at $3,345 capping upside attempts. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is drifting around the neutral 50 level, reflecting indecision among traders. Elliott Wave shows a current A-B-C correction, with potential extension up to the $3,375 zone before any fresh selling momentum. Key support levels at $3,290 and $3,245 could attract buyers if approached. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens, gold may break above current resistance at $3,345. A breakout would potentially clear the way to the $3,375 area, which sits along the reverse trendline and may encourage additional buying interest. Further US Dollar weakness and a softer-than-anticipated US CPI print may serve as the catalyst needed for gold to retest higher prices and move toward last week’s high near $3,400. On the negative side, inability to breach the $3,345 resistance level can result in fresh selling pressure. A drop below near-term support at $3,290 can leave gold vulnerable to further losses, with the subsequent support area at $3,245, seen by past highs and lows. A higher-than-expected US CPI figure or favorable risk sentiment due to geopolitical events can push gold down as appetite for safe-haven assets fades.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls on Robust US Jobs Data but Remains Ahead of Key Fed Meeting

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  • June 7, 2025
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Gold prices fell for a second consecutive day after a better-than-expected US May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data sapped optimism for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut and strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Even though it dropped 0.84% on Friday to $3,322, XAU/USD is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30%, underpinned by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. Traders are now looking forward to next week’s inflation data releases and the Fed policy meeting soon, as the market re-adjusts for monetary easing further down the line in 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The strong NFP data lowers expectations for near-term rate reductions, with markets now pricing fewer than two cuts by the end of 2025. • XAU/USD needs to stay above the key $3,300 support or risk further losses down to $3,250 or lower. • Next week’s CPI, PPI, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment could continue to drive market sentiment and Fed policy expectations. • Tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East, and constant central bank gold buying, continue to offer a positive environment for Gold. Gold prices declined on Friday after a better-than-expected US jobs report strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields and lowered chances of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Even after the day’s loss, XAU/USD is still up more than 1.30% for the week, buoyed by persistent geopolitical tensions and consistent central bank buying. The market is now setting its sights on pivotal US inflation data releases later next week, which may further influence expectations leading up to the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting. Staying above the $3,300 support level is still vital for Gold to continue its bullish configuration in the near term. Gold declined following robust US jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the Dollar and yields higher. Gold maintains weekly gains above 1.30% despite the decline, underpinned by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. •  Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 0.84% on Friday, trading around $3,322 following robust US NFP data. •  The US created 139K jobs in May, topping estimates and maintaining the unemployment level at 4.2%. • Hawkish data prompted traders to trim back Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. • Gold is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30% despite losses on each day of the current week. • Key support for XAU/USD at $3,300 holds; a break here could see $3,250 or lower. • Market attention turns to next week’s US CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment releases. •  Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing geopolitics risks and central bank gold purchases. Gold was strong this week despite being challenged by a stronger-than-forecast US Nonfarm Payrolls for May. The on-going strength in the labor market, with 139K new jobs added and unemployment remaining at 4.2%, supported the view that the US economy is still strong. This information changed market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory, prompting investors to reduce rate reduction bets in the short term. This caused the US Dollar and Treasury yields to rise, which temporarily weakened Gold prices. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nonetheless, wider macroeconomic and geopolitical forces underpin the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset. Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and persistent uncertainty among global financial markets have sustained demand for bullion. Further, central banks continue to buy Gold to diversify away from US Dollar reserves. These structural forces might still underpin the long-term value of Gold irrespective of short-term volatility in economic fundamentals or market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in an extended bull trend despite recent retreats. The price is consolidating above the support level of $3,300, which is a pivotal base for continued upward momentum. A breakout and hold above this level may set the stage for a retest of the high of late at $3,403, with additional upside to the $3,450 level and all-time high of $3,500. However, if XAU/USD breaches below $3,300, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly bearish, suggesting a possible continuation of short-term weakness before any rebound. FORECAST If Gold holds resistance above the $3,300 level, bullish interest may resume, which could propel XAU/USD back towards the recent high of $3,403. A breach above that level could attract additional buying, taking prices up to the $3,450 resistance zone. If bullish sentiment gains strength, particularly against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions or low inflation readings, Gold may even test its record high near $3,500 in the sessions ahead. On the other hand, a firm break below the $3,300 support would activate a steeper correction. In that case, Gold can go down towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235, followed by the next major support area around $3,167, which was the high of early April. Strength in the US Dollar and increasing yields can provide additional pressure on the downside, especially if coming inflation data supports a hawkish Fed outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near $3,350 as USD Rebounds and Geopolitical Fears Persist

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  • June 3, 2025
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Gold prices remained close to the $3,350 level, falling from a near four-week high as the US dollar maintained modest intraday gains. Despite some profit-taking pressure associated with the dollar’s recovery and upbeat risk sentiment in global markets, continued geopolitical tensions, US-China trade tensions, and fears about the US fiscal situation continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Market participants also are wary in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025, which could cap substantial price falls in gold. Technical indications indicate limited downside risk around key support points, but a breakout above $3,400 might set the stage for a new challenge of the $3,500 psychological level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Keep an eye out for additional USD strength or weakness, as it will be one of the main drivers of gold’s short-term price action. • Market expectations of rate cuts in 2025 will act as a ceiling for USD gains and will give underlying support to gold. • Continuing US-China trade tensions and escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine, may boost safe-haven demand for gold. • Monitor key support near $3,324–$3,326 and resistance around $3,400–$3,432, which will determine gold’s next directional move. Investors should closely monitor the US dollar’s trajectory, as its strength or weakness continues to heavily influence gold prices in the near term. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 are likely to limit aggressive USD rallies, providing a supportive backdrop for gold. In contrast, surging geopolitical tensions, notably between the US and China, and simmering conflicts like Ukraine are driving safe-haven demand for the metal. From a technical standpoint, gold’s action around crucial support points of $3,324–$3,326 and resistance levels of $3,400 to $3,432 will be decisive in ascertaining if the precious metal can continue its upward momentum or experience further pullbacks. Watch the US dollar’s action and Fed rate cutting expectations, which significantly influence gold prices. Geopolitical tensions and trade tensions are still supporting safe-haven demand. The next direction of gold will be driven by key technical levels between $3,324 and $3,432. • Gold price slightly below $3,350, easing from a near four-week high as there is a modest US dollar bounce. • Stronger USD and upbeat global risk appetite are weighing on haven gold. • Continuing US-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks sustain gold’s safe-haven demand. • Market anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 serves to cap sharp falls in gold prices. • US fiscal outlook concerns contribute to USD caution, helping indirectly to support gold. • Technical support is around $3,324–$3,326, with resistance around $3,400–$3,432 key to further advances. • A sustained breakout above $3,432 may prompt an effort to try and retest the all-time highs around $3,500. Gold prices are currently trading just above the $3,350 level, somewhat driven by the US dollar’s modest retreat from recent lows. The strength of the dollar has prompted some investors to take some profits in gold, which is perceived as a safe-haven commodity. Yet the metal remains to gain from continued geopolitical tensions such as increasing trade tensions between China and the US and increased threats of the Ukrainian conflict. These risks are causing investors to remain defensive and underpinning gold demand as a hedge against global uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, hopes that the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates in 2025 are capping any sudden gains in the US dollar and offering underlying support to gold. Fears regarding the US fiscal outlook are also leading to a defensive mood towards the dollar, which tends to favor non-yielding assets such as gold. With these dynamics in place, gold stands to continue being an important asset for those investors who want to hedge in the face of a messy and uncertain global economic landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold just broke above important resistance levels of $3,324 to $3,326, indicating bullish sentiment among dealers. The ability of the price to stay above these levels of support indicates underlying strength, and the next key area to monitor is the $3,400 to $3,432 range, which may serve as resistance before gold tries to challenge its all-time highs. Technicals on daily and hourly charts continue to be bullish, suggesting that the overall direction remains towards more upside. But any protracted fall below the set support levels can pave the way for a more profound correction towards the $3,300 level. FORECAST If gold manages to maintain support above the $3,324–$3,326 area, it could gain momentum and push toward the next resistance zone around $3,400–$3,432. Breaking through this level would likely open the way for gold to challenge its all-time highs near $3,500, fueled by ongoing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties. On the flip side, a consistent drop below the $3,324 support might intensify selling pressure, which could propel gold prices lower to the $3,300 level or even beyond. Enhanced US dollar strength or an unexpected relief in geopolitical tensions may suppress the demand for gold, heightening the chances of a more extensive pullback in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Float below $3,300 as Traders Look to US PCE Data with Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty Looming

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  • May 30, 2025
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Gold prices are kept in check below the $3,300 level as tame U.S. Dollar firmness puts pressure to the downside before the highly anticipated release of the U.S. PCE Price Index. Despite the dip, downside movement appears limited amid renewed trade tensions, ongoing geopolitical risks, and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A reinstated tariff ruling and uncertainty surrounding global conflict zones have kept investor sentiment cautious, lending support to the safe-haven metal. Though technical indicators imply further downside potential, the majority of traders are in waiting mode for new impetus from U.S. inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone is watching for the next U.S. inflation data release, which has the potential to have a meaningful impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations and near-term direction for the USD and gold. • Russia-Ukraine conflict developments and Middle East ceasefire negotiations still underpin safe-haven demand for gold, offering a potential defense against further losses. • Re-imposition of Trump’s tariffs and rumors of additional trade actions could inject pressure into the markets and indirectly support gold’s appeal in risk-off conditions. • Unclear signals from Fed officials regarding the timing and probability of interest rate reductions leave markets in suspense, rendering short-term gold direction dependent on upcoming data and comments. Investors should pay close attention to the publication of the U.S. PCE Price Index since it has the potential to dramatically alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and subsequently affect gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as the lack of progress in Middle East ceasefire talks and doubts over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, continue to provide support to gold’s safe-haven allure. Furthermore, the revival of trade policy uncertainty since the reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs has added additional market volatility, which has made gold a popular hedge. In contrast, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials underscore the significance of future economic releases in informing monetary policy, leaving traders nervous and price dynamics in gold very responsive to further developments. Gold traders are monitoring the next U.S. PCE Price Index closely for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty remain in favor of gold’s safe-haven status, limiting downside even with nascent USD firmness. •  Gold stays under $3,300 due to mild U.S. Dollar strength suppressing demand. •  Markets look to the U.S. PCE Price Index, which may frame rate-cut expectations at the Fed. •  Reinstalled Trump-style tariffs introduce trade uncertainty that favors safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe keep supporting gold’s demand. •  Fed officials are still divided, sending conflicting signals on upcoming rate action. •  Technical indicators indicate bearish momentum, and there could be downside towards $3,245–$3,200. •  Resistance is at $3,325–$3,350 and the breach above might unleash fresh buying interest. Gold prices continue to weaken as market participants wait for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be released, a core inflation measure that may have implications for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The information is likely to give more guidance on whether the Fed will continue with rate cuts in the second half of the year, a consideration that has made market players conservative. Although the U.S. Dollar has been mildly firmer, prospects of a more dovish Fed position in the months ahead still underpin interest in gold as a non-yielding asset generally. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides economic statistics, growing geopolitical tensions and reviving trade policy anxieties are keeping gold in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset. The latest imposition of tariffs by a U.S. federal appeals court, along with concurrent wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have contributed to worldwide uncertainty. These together with dovish comments by several Federal Reserve officials have been adding to a watch-and-wait mood in the market that has been upholding gold as a hedge against general macroeconomic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold comes up against near-term resistance in the $3,325–$3,326 area, which has already failed to breach on higher attempts. The inability to break above the $3,300 level indicates no strong bullish strength, and short-term indicators are starting to reflect renewed selling pressure. If the price continues to have trouble below important resistance levels, a downward move to the next support zones could be expected. Yet any such sustained break above the $3,325 ceiling may initiate fresh buying interest and potentially leave the way open for a retest of upper levels. FORECAST If the future U.S. PCE figures indicate slowing inflation, this may further support Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, weakening the U.S. Dollar and driving gold prices higher. In that case, gold could see fresh buying interest, with room to test levels higher than the $3,300 mark. A continued break past the $3,325–$3,350 resistance level could prompt short-covering and propel prices towards the $3,400 area, buoyed by safe-haven demand as geopolitical and trade tensions continue to hold sway. Conversely, in the event of PCE data surprise to the upside signifying sticky inflation, it might temper hopes of near-future Fed rate cuts and enhance the U.S. Dollar, putting fresh downward pressure on gold. In such a scenario, prices might fall further, with scope to test support levels at $3,280 and potentially carry losses up to the $3,245–$3,200 region. Further dollar strength or resolve on trade and geopolitical fronts would also diminish the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to the bearish risk.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Steady Over $3,300 on Safe-Haven Demand That Continues Despite Key FOMC Minutes Approach

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  • May 28, 2025
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Gold prices continue to hold steady over the $3,300 level as safe-haven demand remains in place despite prevailing tensions in the geopolitical scene, US fiscal issues, and risk-averse sentiment prior to the release of the FOMC Minutes. Even with a modest recovery in the US Dollar and relaxed trade tensions after President Trump’s postponement of EU tariffs, investor unease remains in driving demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Market players now closely monitor the Fed’s policy stance and forthcoming US economic releases such as Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index for further guidance. Technically, gold has potential for both near-term pullbacks and continuation higher, with support around $3,245 and resistance near $3,345. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market players look to the FOMC Minutes for insight into the Federal Reserve’s position regarding forthcoming interest rate reductions, which would directly impact gold prices and USD strength. •   Future important data, such as the Preliminary Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index, will offer more insight into inflation dynamics and the health of the economy, and could influence Fed policy expectations. •  Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East conflicts, and increasing worries regarding the fiscal deficit of the US support continued safe-haven demand for gold. • Look for important support at $3,245 and resistance at around $3,345. A breakout above resistance could initiate a rally to $3,400 and higher, while a fall below support might induce a bearish excursion. Gold traders are eagerly observing some important events that may determine the metal’s short-term trend. The FOMC Minutes release continues to be a top priority, with the markets wanting confirmation of the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve as expectations for two cuts in 2025 build. Furthermore, the forthcoming US economic data, with the Preliminary Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index taking center stage, will provide key insights into inflation and growth that will dictate both Fed policy and investor moods. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s moves in Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East, as well as fears over the US fiscal deficit, continue to support gold’s status as an asset class of last resort. On a technical basis, levels to monitor are support around $3,245 and resistance at $3,345, with a break in either direction set to initiate the next major move. Gold continues to be underpinned above $3,300 as investors look to the FOMC Minutes for transparency on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Safe-haven demand is being fueled by geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns, with further volatility potentially being added by forthcoming GDP and inflation releases. • Gold remains firm above $3,300 as investors look for cover amidst geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries. • FOMC Minutes are closely watched for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. • Market mood is still guarded in spite of President Trump’s postponement of envisaged EU tariffs. • Imminent US economic releases, such as Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index, may drive gold’s direction. • Gold finds support from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties and inflation. • US Dollar finds it hard to make headway, constrained by budgetary concerns and rate-cutting expectations. • Technical perspective indicates consolidation with scope for both continuation higher and short-term pullbacks. Gold prices remain stable above the $3,300 level, supported by renewed investor hesitancy in the face of geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns. Although some easing of trade tensions with President Trump’s postponement of planned EU tariffs, sentiment in the market remains precarious. Concerns regarding the general economic outlook, combined with renewed global conflict and mounting budget deficit anxieties, have maintained demand for the safe-haven metal at high levels. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Investors are now waiting for the FOMC Minutes release to gauge the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. With interest rate cuts anticipated later in the year, gold is expected to continue in the limelight as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Upcoming US economic releases such as Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index will also be closely monitored for the direction of inflationary trends and growth momentum that may dictate future policy actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is displaying signs of consolidation with an upward bias, as it maintains above important psychological support around $3,300. Though momentum indicators on the daily chart indicate loss of bullish momentum, they have failed to signify a bearish change, which could signal the emergence of fresh buying interest. Near-term resistance lies in the vicinity of the $3,340–$3,345 levels, which also corresponds to a recent trend-line breakdown. A continued advance above this level may spur fresh upside momentum, whereas inability to stay above $3,300 can leave the metal vulnerable to additional declines towards the $3,250–$3,245 resistance zone. FORECAST If gold is able to hold above the $3,300 level and clears the immediate overhead around $3,345, then it may unlock more gains. Rising safe-haven demand, dovish FOMC Minutes cues, or softer-than-anticipated US economic data can impart bullish momentum. Under this scenario, gold can rise to the $3,365 level and potentially extend towards the $3,400 level, provided market sentiment shifts risk-averse or the US Dollar continues to weaken. Alternatively, if gold is unable to stay above $3,300, it can attract more selling pressure. A more robust US currency, Fed hawkish remarks, or improved-than-anticipated economic indicators might deter the metal’s demand. Under these circumstances, prices might fall back to the $3,250–$3,245 area, which is a crucial support level. A firm breach below this region could trigger a more significant corrective period, possibly leaving gold vulnerable to additional sell-offs on the near-term horizon.

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