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Gold Prices Rally Near Two-Week High as USD Weakens on US Fiscal Worries and Global Geopolitical Risks

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  • May 22, 2025
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Gold prices rallied to a near two-week high, holding above $3,300, as a weakening US dollar combined with rising fiscal worries in the US. Investor concern over growing US deficit, amid Moody’s recent downgrade of the nation’s sovereign credit rating and divisive tax bill, has dented dollar confidence. Fears of renewed US-China trade tensions and rising geopolitical threats, such as simmering Middle Eastern conflicts, have further fueled demand for gold as a haven asset. Technical indicators further indicate a positive outlook for gold, with the price breaking key resistance levels and ready to test higher targets in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Investors will watch closely what happens with the US tax-cut and spending bill, which could dramatically add to the national debt and affect market sentiment. •  Bets on additional Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 in response to weakening growth and softening inflation continue to be a key driver of the US dollar and gold prices. • Disputes over export controls and technology restrictions linger, potentially raising geopolitical risks, and underpinning gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and major-power rivalries between countries such as Russia are also fueling uncertainty, underscoring gold’s use as a defensive asset. Investors are watching closely as the evolving US fiscal situation plays out, with the approval of a large tax-cut and spending measure risking expansion of the national debt and dampening market sentiment. While that is on its way out, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2025 as the economy slows and inflation eases continue to weigh on the US dollar, supporting gold’s allure. Increased tensions in US-China trade relations, specifically on tech exports, provide another source of geopolitical uncertainty, supporting safe-haven purchases. Furthermore, continued unrest in the Middle East and tensions among world powers maintain uncertainty, adding to gold’s role as a sanctuary in uncertain times. Markets continue to be preoccupied with US fiscal woes and possible Fed rate reductions, which are depressing the dollar and bolstering gold prices. Increased US-China trade tensions and continued geopolitical unrest continue to fuel safe-haven demand for the metal. • Gold prices went higher for the fourth straight day to set a near two-week peak of more than $3,300. • The US dollar is weak because of increasing fiscal fears and anticipations of Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. • Moody’s reduction of the US sovereign credit rating and concerns regarding the widening US deficit overhang market sentiment. •  The Republican-sponsored tax-cut and spending package may add trillions to the US debt, yet another reason for concern. •  Resurgent US-China trade tensions, particularly on the export of advanced technology, are amplifying geopolitical risks. •  Middle Eastern conflicts and tense international relations remain strong fundamentals for the demand for gold. •  Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, as prices break resistance levels and head towards $3,365 and further to $3,400. Gold prices have continued to climb as a background of increasing economic and geopolitical risks. Concerns among investors regarding the fiscal health of the United States are still at the forefront, particularly in the wake of Moody’s recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The threat of the passage of a large tax-cut and spending measure, which will add trillions to the national debt, has further spooked markets. Further, the US dollar has lost strength on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in 2025 as economic growth slows and inflation eases. This pairing has made gold a more attractive safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, escalating US-China tensions over the export of technologies have fueled geopolitical risks, underpinning a risk-averse market mood. Middle Eastern conflicts, such as ongoing military interventions and humanitarian issues, provide another source of uncertainty, prompting investors to find shelter in gold. As several sources of risk coalesce, gold remains in favor with buyers in search of stability in a context of economic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has shown robust bullish strength, powering past major resistance levels of $3,250-$3,255 and holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of its latest bear move. Daily chart oscillators are becoming increasingly positive, implying upward trend momentum and that the direction of least resistance still is to the upside. This technical resilience is indicative of further advances toward the $3,365 area and even toward the $3,400 level, as long as the price remains above key support levels around $3,300. But any meaningful break below support might attract selling pressure, pushing lower levels of $3,250 and $3,200. FORECAST Gold prices are set to maintain their ascending direction as long as they remain above major support levels of $3,300. Favorable momentum and robust safe-haven demand fueled by continuing geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries would propel prices to the next resistance level of $3,365. A break below this level would see gold challenging the psychologically important $3,400 level, boosted by continuing US dollar weakness and hopes of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the flip side, inability to find support near the $3,300 level could pave the way for a corrective pullback. Sellers could engage near $3,255 if gold drops below $3,285. Yet a clear break below this support level may result in additional technical selling, pushing prices to the $3,200 level. Such a situation could occur if risk appetite upgrades considerably or if US economic reports lower expectations for monetary easing.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Drops on Trade Optimism, but Downside Risks are Contained by Fed Outlook and Geopolitical Tensions

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  • May 16, 2025
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Gold prices have experienced modest intraday losses on Friday as renewed optimism surrounding the transitory US-China trade truce trimmed safe-haven demand. Nevertheless, the downside is contained as diminishing US economic data fuels the view of additional Federal Reserve rate reductions, which keeps the US Dollar weak and buoying non-yielding assets such as gold. Continuing geopolitical tensions, such as rising violence in Gaza and shaky peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, also underpin gold’s support. Technically, gold continues to be range-bound with major resistance at $3,255 and support at $3,177, while investors wait for a clearer directional cue. KEY LOOKOUTS • Developments or reversals in the 90-day trade ceasefire could exert a major influence on safe-haven demand and shape gold prices. • Further Federal rate cuts now market bets on weak US economic data to hold firm, underpinning gold by depressing the USD and Treasury yields. • Mounting tensions in Gaza and also ambiguous results from Russian-Ukrainian talks for peace could maintain safe-haven interest in gold. • The key resistance is still at the $3,252–$3,255 area, while support is close to $3,178 and $3,120. A move above either of these levels could decide the next direction. Gold dealers need to keep a close watch on events on several fronts. The 90-day US-China trade ceasefire still is bearing down on safe-haven demand, but any indication of breakdown would restore bearish sentiment very fast. Meanwhile, dovish hopes from the Federal Reserve, following weaker US inflation and retail numbers, should continue to keep the US Dollar and Treasury yields under stress, supporting non-yielding assets such as gold. Geopolitical threats, especially in Gaza and Eastern Europe, continue to stay high and may trigger fresh demand for security. Technically, gold has to convincingly break above resistance at around $3,255 to make a move towards $3,300 possible, while persistent weakness below $3,177 may leave the metal vulnerable to further declines towards $3,120 and $3,100. Gold prices are still under pressure from US-China trade optimism but are supported by dovish Fed expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions. Watch resistance at $3,255 and support at $3,177 levels. A breakdown on either side can set up the next short-term trend. • Gold is seeing modest intraday losses as demand for safe-haven is pressured with US-China trade truce optimism. • Lower US economic indicators, such as PPI and CPI, have supported expectations of additional Fed rate cuts. • US Dollar is still weak, as decreasing Treasury yields cap its rally, indirectly favoring gold. • Geopolitical tensions remain in place, with Gaza conflicts and Russia-Ukraine peace talks at a standstill upholding demand for gold. • Technical resistance at $3,252–$3,255 needs to be overcome for the prospect of a rally up to $3,300. • Support at $3,178 is nearest, with a further fall potentially reaching $3,120 and $3,100. • Market players are hesitant, waiting for firm directional signals as mixed economic indicators and geopolitical tensions prevail. Gold prices remain under pressure as confidence about the temporary US-China trade ceasefire diminishes the need for safe-haven assets. The 90-day tariff cease-fire agreement calmed fears of an impending global slowdown in economic growth. This improved mood has shifted attention among investors to riskier assets, short-term undermining gold’s attractiveness. Furthermore, hints of breakthroughs in trade negotiations with other major economies such as India, Japan, and South Korea have further strengthened market optimism. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView This notwithstanding, a number of underlying factors continue to underpin gold’s hedge function. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, led by the deepening Gaza conflict and the frozen Russia-Ukraine peace talks, keep global uncertainty high. Meanwhile, softer-than-anticipated US economic figures have made the argument for additional cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve even more compelling. This has depressed the US Dollar and Treasury yields, indirectly buttressing gold’s appeal on the bigger market platform. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s latest attempt at rebounding failed at the doorstep of a critical resistance band of $3,252–$3,255, a sign of insufficient bullish pressure. The momentum indicators on the daily graph still show weakness, reflecting caution among the traders. On the downside, a break below the $3,200 price level may trigger selling pressure, with support potentially found around the $3,178–$3,177 zone. A persistent push past the zone of resistance is required to validate a change in attitude and set the stage for a more pronounced bull trend. FORECAST Gold can rebound with a bullish trend if tensions on the geopolitical front continue to rise or if the next round of US economic news keeps indicating a weakening economy. A continued dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar, might propel renewed demand for non-yielding yellow metal. If investor appetites revert to safe-haven assets, gold might experience steady gains if market uncertainty continues to be high owing to international conflicts or stalled worldwide negotiations. Conversely, any substantial advancement in global trade talks—especially a lasting agreement between China and the US—may lessen demand for gold as a protective hedge against uncertainty. Moreover, if US economic statistics surprise the upside, Fed rate cut hopes in the markets might soften, lifting the US Dollar and Treasuries, thereby putting a dampener on gold prices, particularly in the absence of instant geopolitical shocks that could lead to a deeper near-term correction.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Reaches Record High at $3,045 Before Fed Decision as Geopolitical Tensions Rise and the Market Remains Uncertain

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  • March 19, 2025
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Gold reached a new record high of $3,045 on Wednesday amid rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The rally was driven by disconcerting reports from Turkey and Ukraine, and fears of possible economic slowdown in the U.S. even with a temporary ceasefire deal between President Trump and President Putin. While gold’s momentum is still robust, analysts are cautioning of a potential pullback, particularly if the Fed indicates fewer rate cuts than anticipated. While markets wait with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s remarks and economic forecasts, gold traders are eagerly waiting for signals that would determine the next major move in the precious metal. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Fed’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts, which may influence the direction of gold in the subsequent sessions. • Political instability in Turkey and uncertainty in Ukraine are still backing gold prices as safe-haven demand continues to stay high. • Keep an eye on critical resistance levels of $3,048 and $3,063; a break above might spark a new wave of gold bullishness. • Gold’s strong rally could get a near-term correction if the Fed gives cues of less rate cuts or turns hawkish. Gold’s stellar rally to an all-time high of $3,045 is a reflection of increasing geopolitical tensions and increased investor wariness in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement. The metal’s safe-haven demand has been supported by political turmoil in Turkey and continued uncertainty in Ukraine, as market players look to the Fed’s interest rate outlook and economic forecasts for 2025 and beyond. A hawkish Fed or less-than-anticipated rate cut signals may provoke a short-term retreat in gold prices. Yet, technical resistance levels at $3,048 and $3,063 are still crucial to monitor, as a break above these levels would ignite more upside momentum. Gold reached a record high of $3,045 in the wake of increasing geopolitical tensions and before the key Fed interest rate decision. Investors now wait for cues on subsequent rate cuts, while technical resistance at $3,048 would decide the direction of gold prices next. • Gold rose to a record high of $3,045 on Wednesday, fueled by geopolitical tensions and market expectation. • Political instability in Turkey and ongoing uncertainty in Ukraine have bolstered safe-haven demand for gold. • Investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts for future policy guidance. • Any hawkish rhetoric from the Fed or lower rate cut expectations could lead to a short-term gold correction. • Technical resistance points at $3,048 and $3,063 may define further upside potential in gold prices. • Levels of support to monitor are $3,024, $3,010, and the psychological $3,000 level. • Gold’s rally may be overbought despite bullish sentiment, with traders wary of a potential pullback. Gold hit a new record high of $3,045 as investors grew increasingly nervous over increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty. Prices rose as markets responded to important political events, such as the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, a prominent opposition leader in Turkey, and persistent turmoil in Ukraine. These occurrences have bolstered gold’s reputation as a historical safe-haven asset, as investors turn to it for security in uncertain global headlines. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To the uncertainty, attention now turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will make its most recent interest rate decision and release new economic forecasts. While the market generally expects no change, expectations for future rate reductions have the potential to impact overall market sentiment. With a backdrop of nervous optimism and geopolitical tension, gold remains a focus as a hedge against prospective financial volatility and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent surge to an all-time high of $3,045 reflects robust bullish momentum in the market. The short-term attention now turns to critical resistance levels near $3,048 and $3,063, which may serve as prospective breakout areas in case of further pressure on the upside. On the downside, levels near $3,024, $3,010, and the psychological level of $3,000 are crucial checkpoints in the event of a pullback. While the trend remains positive, traders should stay cautious, as overbought conditions could lead to short-term corrections before the next leg higher. FORECAST Gold’s latest rally implies there is scope for further price rises in the immediate term, provided geopolitical tensions prevail or the Federal Reserve introduces dovish policy measures. A repeated breach above $3,045 could lead to the opening up of higher levels of resistance levels, and it is investor psyche that could bring prices towards the $3,063 levels or higher. Fresh fears over international economic stability as well as the demand for haven assets may yet continue to power bullish sentiment across the gold complex. Even with the aggressive rally, there is still potential for a short-term correction as gold begins to appear somewhat overbought. If the Federal Reserve leans more toward being hawkish or indicates fewer rate reductions than expected, it has the potential to place downward pressure on prices. In that case, gold could fall back towards important support levels at $3,024 or even flirt with the psychological $3,000 threshold. A more pronounced correction can then follow if sentiment in the larger markets turns away from risk aversion.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Soars to Record High on Middle East Tensions and Global Geopolitical Uncertainty

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  • March 18, 2025
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Gold reached a new all-time high of $3,028 as rising geopolitical tensions spark a demand for safe-haven assets. The increase comes after Israel pounded Gaza with airstrikes that signal the breakdown of a ceasefire agreement, stimulating concerns of wider regional war and retaliation by militant factions. Also, world markets are in suspense before a high-stakes telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with fears of sidelining Ukraine from peace negotiations. Soft U.S. economic data, upcoming Federal Reserve actions, and Germany’s anticipated defense spending increase further add to bullish momentum in gold, as investors look to higher levels with increasing uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS • Israeli attacks on Gaza bringing an end to the ceasefire agreement have increased market anxiety, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven investments such as gold. • The imminent telephone conversation between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin has the potential to change global geopolitics, guiding gold’s future direction. • Weak U.S. retail sales and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate stability are enhancing gold’s safe-haven status. • Gold has crossed major resistance levels with traders now looking to $3,030 as the next target and $3,200 as a possible medium-term milestone. Gold traders are factoring in the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the consequences of Israeli attacks on Gaza and possible retaliatory measures that would boost further safe-haven demand. Market players are also keenly observing the result of the expected Trump-Putin phone conversation, which can have a sizeable impact on global risk appetite and investor sentiment. Moreover, Germany’s referendum on a large defense budget and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in the next meeting are pivotal drivers of gold’s movement. Gold traders need to keep an eye out for increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Trump-Putin’s upcoming phone call. Attention is also focused on Germany’s defense budget vote and on the Fed policy stance, as both have the potential to continue fueling the trend. Major technical levels at $3,020–$3,030 are still pivotal for short-term direction. • Gold records a new all-time high of $3,028 as geopolitical tensions increase and safe-haven buying. • Israeli attacks on Gaza signal the collapse of the ceasefire, threatening wider regional war. • Investors turn to gold as a safe-haven commodity in times of global uncertainty and economic anxiety. • Trump-Putin telephone call hangs over the horizon, threatening to reshape the geopolitical landscape and affect gold prices. • German parliament to approve a $49 billion defense budget, which could give further impetus to the gold rally. • Weakening U.S. retail sales and dovish Fed policy lean favor rate cut expectations, underpinning gold demand. • Technical breakout still in play, with near-term resistance at key levels of $3,020 and $3,030 and support at $3,014/$3,007. Gold has again asserted its strength as a sound safe-haven instrument, hitting an all-time record in the backdrop of rising worldwide tensions. The recent Israeli bombardment of Gaza, marking the end of the ceasefire, has heightened concerns of a wider regional war, causing investors to flock to precious metals. The demand for gold in this instance mirrors increasing nervousness in international markets, where geopolitical tensions tend to push investors toward safer assets. As tensions in the Middle East escalate, gold remains in the spotlight as a value store in times of uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Joining the overall tension is a much-awaited phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin which is of particular interest. Given that the conversation is set to be around the Ukrainian war, markets are preparing for any significant geopolitical change. In addition, Germany’s impending vote on a large defense spending bill is a sign of a larger trend of heightened military emphasis among world powers. Combined with soft U.S. economic data and uncertainty regarding future policy direction, these events are supporting gold’s status as a premier asset during periods of global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has exhibited healthy bullish momentum by overcoming prior resistance areas and posting a fresh all-time high. The rally shows sustained investor belief, with price action recording higher highs consistently. Experts indicate psychological levels of $3,020 and $3,030 can be important zones for the short term, while earlier resistance becomes support. As key institutions start to forecast targets around $3,200, sentiment is still bullish; however, traders should be careful of reversals, as overbought rallies tend to attract profit-taking and corrective action. FORECAST Gold remains strong in bullish motion. The precious metal is highly situated to rise further, particularly if turmoil in the Middle East intensifies or world powers are unable to achieve diplomatic solutions. Moreover, hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts and higher defense spending by major economies may continue to drive investor appetite for gold as a safe-haven asset. Most analysts now believe that gold can test higher levels, with estimates looking toward the $3,100–$3,200 level in the medium term, driven by persistent market interest and supportive macroeconomic conditions. Even with the current rally, gold is not exempt from corrections. If geopolitical tensions subside or diplomatic developments occur—e.g., a fruitful Trump-Putin deal or a fresh Middle East ceasefire—investor psychology may move away from safe-haven assets. And if stronger-than-anticipated U.S. economic data comes out soon or the Federal Reserve hints at a more aggressive posture, gold may come under pressure. An abrupt shift in market positioning or profit-taking at higher levels can also induce short-term pullbacks, moving prices toward significant support areas and temporarily tempering the bullish trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Retreats On Profit-Taking, But Bullish Momentum Intact

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  • February 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its intraday drop from a record high, falling to the $2,929 area as investors take profits. Yet, worries about US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts still support the precious metal. In spite of a modest recovery in the US Dollar, softer macroeconomic data and gold-backed ETF inflows support the bullish view. Short-term consolidation or a mild pullback is probable, but the general direction is higher, with robust support at $2,920-$2,915. Market participants now look to important US economic releases and FOMC speeches for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Robust support around $2,920-$2,915 may see dip buyers, capping further losses. • FOMC commentary and US economic reports could issue new directional impulses for XAU/USD. • The levels of $2,900 and $2,880 serve as pivotal support zones, while an upward break over recent highs will trigger additional strength. Price of gold remains under the microscope as it pullbacks from fresh record highs through profit-taking but the overall upward trend remains very much in tact. Market sentiment is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over US trade policies, which continue to support demand for the safe-haven metal. Strong technical support near the $2,920-$2,915 zone may attract dip buyers, preventing deeper losses. Meanwhile, upcoming US economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index and PCE Price Index, along with FOMC speeches, could influence the next move in XAU/USD. Traders are on guard, monitoring major support and resistance levels for additional price action. Gold price pulls back from highs on profit-taking, yet Fed rate cut expectations and fear of trade war ensure bullish drive continues. Major support around $2,920-$2,915 would catch dip buyers, though future US economic releases may dictate future price action. • Gold price pulls back from highs as traders take profits, though overall bullish trend continues. • Bets on additional Federal Reserve rate cuts underpin the non-yielding bullion, capping deeper losses. • US President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs increase economic uncertainty, enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Firm buying interest anticipated in the $2,920-$2,915 area, followed by $2,900 and $2,880 as key downside levels. • A modest recovery in the US Dollar places some pressure on gold, but softer macroeconomic data maintains bullish sentiment. • Investors look to US Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Manufacturing Index, and PCE Price Index for new market signals. • Latest numbers reflect the highest weekly inflow in physically backed gold ETFs since March 2022, reflecting gold’s high demand. Investors are focusing on gold because market mood is driven by policy choices and economic uncertainties. Profit-taking saw some back-tracking from new highs, though, but the deeper drivers in terms of concern around trade war risks and the possibility of Fed rate cuts have ensured its use as a haven asset remains supported. With potential escalations on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs being a danger signal for international markets, market players are all ears for their implications. Furthermore, the most recent economic indicators indicate a slowdown, further boosting the demand for gold as an economic stability hedge. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Investor demand for gold-backed ETFs has also increased, with the biggest weekly inflow since March 2022, indicating ongoing confidence in the metal. In the meantime, Federal Reserve policymakers are still cautious on future rate moves, highlighting the requirement for additional economic clarity before additional cuts. As inflation reports and consumer confidence data are revealed, gold is still a favored asset in times of market uncertainty. Investors and traders are still watching geopolitical events and economic data, keeping gold on their radar as a long-term volatility hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a consolidation phase after hitting all-time highs, with solid support at the $2,920-$2,915 area. The price action indicates that the recent dip is actually a temporary correction and not a trend reversal, as the overall bullish momentum is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the overbought area, suggesting possible short-term consolidation before another move upward. If gold holds support at $2,900, it may draw new buying interest, while a clean break below this level could set the stage for further losses to the $2,880-$2,855 area. Resistance is close to recent highs, and a breakout above those levels could set the stage for additional gains. Traders will be watching closely for upcoming US economic data and Fed commentary for possible direction. FORECAST Gold’s bullish impulse continues to ride high, supported by hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global economic unrest keeping the safe-haven commodity buoyant. Should market sentiment be in the direction of yet more monetary policy loosening, gold may re-ignite its buying interest with prices potentially approaching new highs. A break sustained above recent tops may set up for more strength, with fund demand and ETF inflows also serving as supplementary drivers. Any indication of heightened economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions would help further boost the appeal of gold, maintaining the bearish trend intact. Downside, gold could witness occasional pullbacks on account of profit-taking and short-term US Dollar strength. In case of failure of key supports around levels of $2,920-$2,915, a more significant correction towards the levels of $2,900 and $2,880 is possible. Strong economic reports or a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials may also put pressure on gold, causing short-term losses. As long as the overall trend is positive, however, dips will tend to draw in new buyers, capping deeper losses and supporting gold’s long-term trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Steady Near $2,900: Market Sentiment, USD Influence, and Prospects Ahead

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  • February 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stable near the $2,900 level, buoyed by persistent fears of a global trade war owing to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff measures. Though the precious metal gains from a softer US Dollar in the wake of disappointing retail sales figures, the market remains on guard as the Federal Reserve continues to stick to its hawkish stance. Optimism in US-Russia peace negotiations and positive risk mood have capped gains. Technically, gold’s positive bias holds good, with important resistance levels at $2,925 and an all-time high at $2,943, and key support levels of $2,885 and $2,855. Any solid break below $2,785 would lead to a sharp correction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Fears over Trump’s possible trade tariffs, such as on autos, may propel safe-haven demand for gold, greatly affecting price action. • The Fed’s aggressive stance and anticipation of extended higher rates can affect gold’s attractiveness, with market now looking towards a possible rate cut in September. • USD movement, as driven by economic releases and Treasury yields, is still a pivotal determinant of gold’s short-term price direction. • Gold is resisted at $2,925 and $2,943, while significant support levels at $2,885 and $2,855 may determine the next market direction. Gold price is still sensitive to various issues, such as US tariff policy, Federal Reserve actions, and the US Dollar strength. Increased fear of Trump’s possible trade tariffs, especially on cars, has supported safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, sentiment remains skewed towards a September Fed rate cut over year-end, which is supporting market views. The price action of the US Dollar, fueled by Treasury yields and economic data, is instrumental in setting the near-term gold direction. Technically, resistance around $2,925 and $2,943 could cap advances, with support around $2,885 and $2,855 being the game-changers in stopping a steeper correction. Gold price fluctuates around $2,900, pushed by US tariff worries, Fed actions, and USD fluctuations. Important resistance at $2,925 and support at $2,885 are still pivotal. • Gold price holds steady at the $2,900 level, buoyed by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical and economic risks. • Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs and possible automobile tariffs stoke fear of a worldwide trade war, making gold more attractive. • The hawkishness of the Fed and anticipation of a rate cut delay influence gold’s short-term price action. • A bearish US Dollar, fueled by poor US Retail Sales figures, has temporarily boosted gold prices. • US-Russia talks, as well as increased tensions in Ukraine, bolster gold’s safe-haven demand. • The resistance is found at $2,925 and $2,943, and the key support areas are at $2,885 and $2,855, dictating price action. • A combination of risk-on mood and tension about inflation impacts gold’s ability to hold gains or correct lower. Gold price continues to be technically resilient, holding on to its bullish foundation around the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off from overbought levels, diminishing the likelihood of an immediate correction while continuing to support additional upside potential. Critical resistance levels to monitor are $2,925, followed by the all-time high around $2,943. A successful breakout above this area could stimulate fresh buying, continuing the uptrend and opening the door to higher levels. Moving averages also show a strong bullish trend, supporting the potential for additional gains if market conditions continue to be favorable. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the downside, near-term support is at $2,885, followed by a more robust support area around $2,855 and $2,834. If gold falls below these levels, buyers might come in to support the uptrend, capping losses. Still, a clear-cut breakdown below $2,800 might turn sentiment to bearish side, causing a more extensive correction towards $2,785-$2,784. Participants also need to keep an eye on global economic news, specifically US interest rate expectations and geopolitics, that might fuel volatility and impact gold’s price movements in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price continues to be in bullish territory, sustaining itself at the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from the overbought territory, indicating scope for further action, with other oscillators remaining in positive favor. Near-term resistance is at $2,925, with the all-time high around $2,943. A convincing breakout above this level would propel fresh buying momentum, extending the current uptrend. Support is seen at $2,885 on the downside, with firm demand likely at $2,855 and $2,834. A break below $2,800 with continued momentum would indicate a deeper correction, and possibly a bearish change in direction. FORECAST Gold price is well-set up for additional gains, with good technical support and safe-haven demand being major drivers. If the price holds above the $2,900 level, an initial drive up towards the $2,925 resistance level is anticipated. A clean breakout above this level can see gold challenge its all-time high of $2,943, and if the momentum continues, it might stretch further to $2,960-$2,975. Events like continued US Dollar weakness, heightened geopolitical tensions, or a dovish turn in the Federal Reserve stance may further accelerate the rally in gold. Gold’s positive outlook notwithstanding, downside risks are present. If the price is rejected at resistance levels and goes below $2,885, it may lead to a pullback to $2,855 and then to $2,834. A breach below the crucial psychological level of $2,800 would mark a change in sentiment, leading to a more significant correction to $2,785 or even $2,750. Improved US economic data, a US Dollar rebound, or decreased geopolitical tensions may cap gold’s upside and mount selling pressure in the short term.

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