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Gold Retreats On Quadruple Witching: Rally Halts Near $3,030 but Bullish Traction Remains Unscathed

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  • March 21, 2025
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Gold prices backed off on Friday, falling from their all-time highs during the turmoil of Quadruple Witching — a market phenomenon that involves the concurrent expiry of different futures and options contracts. Having earlier reached a new all-time high of $3,057, gold fell back to a level of about $3,030 in the European session, as investors practiced profit-taking. Even after the pullback, the yellow metal is still well-supported above the crucial $3,000 level, and geopolitical tensions as well as uncertainty in the global economy continue to support its allure. Analysts are still hopeful, with expectations that gold can rally further to the $3,500 level in the months ahead. KEY LOOKOUTS        • Gold is still firmly supported above the psychological $3,000 level despite the recent fall, which keeps the bull run alive. • Near-term resistance is at $3,042, followed by the new all-time high of $3,057. A breakout higher would set the stage for $3,074 and higher. • Ongoing violence in Gaza and Ukraine, and pending U.S. tariff releases, can continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. • Expiration of several futures and options contracts can produce near-term volatility, but also present strategic buying opportunities for investors. Gold’s recent fall to about $3,030 is in the midst of increased market volatility fueled by Quadruple Witching, providing a chance for profit-taking among traders. The overall outlook, however, remains positive as the precious metal continues to trade above the important $3,000 support level. Important resistance levels at $3,042 and the recent all-time high of $3,057 will be closely monitored, with additional upside potential towards $3,074 if the momentum picks up. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and imminent trade tariffs remain supporting gold’s safe-haven demand, maintaining investor appetite strong and a possible rally to $3,500 in the cards. Gold remains firm above the critical $3,000 mark even as it fell back after Quadruple Witching profit-taking. Geopolitical tensions and fears of a trade war keep bullish momentum intact, with the $3,500 target within reach. • Gold experiences a small pullback after setting a new all-time high, largely because of Quadruple Witching profit-taking. • The precious metal continues to be well-supported above the psychological $3,000 mark, reflecting sustained bullishness. • Middle Eastern and Ukrainian geopolitical tensions continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. • Trade war worries and future U.S. tariffs are other drivers of investor interest in gold. • Gold has produced solid gains in 2025, including 15 record highs so far this year and a 16% gain. • Institutional funds and pension plans are increasingly relying on gold as a safe bet. • Forecasts see additional gains, with some predicting that gold may rise to $3,500 amidst continuing global uncertainty. Gold remains a favored safe-haven asset, propelled by persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty worldwide. Investors are looking more and more to the precious metal in light of Middle East and Ukrainian conflicts, as well as fears of possible trade interruptions. The quest for stability during uncertain times has driven a robust rally this year, underscoring gold’s position as a safe store of value. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To add to its popularity, institutional buying is also increasing interest in gold. Pension funds and big investment institutions have reported solid returns from their commodity exposure, including gold. For example, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan recently recorded hefty gains, thanks in part to its commodity investments in gold. With analysts predicting even more elevated price targets, gold remains a magnet for individual and institutional investors looking for long-term safety. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent action displays a healthy period of consolidation following its robust run-up. Despite the prices trimming some of the gains, overall structure remains positive with support holding strong and registering ongoing buying pressure. The market is experiencing customary profit-taking as the market normally experiences during periods like Quadruple Witching but significant resistance points are still reachable. As long as gold remains in a position above critical levels of support, the upward trend is going to keep on going, and the trader will have opportunities to get in on dips and participate in the general trend. FORECAST Gold will continue on its bullish path in the medium to long term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and growing institutional investor demand. With the analysts setting targets as high as $3,500, the metal continues to draw safe-haven flows. If global tensions escalate or economic worries deepen, gold may witness fresh buying traction, driving prices above recent all-time highs. Central bank buying and inflation pressures could also serve as added tailwinds to the metal’s rally. While there is a robust overall prognosis, gold is not exempt from downside risks. Short-term adjustments could happen as a result of profit-taking, volatility in the markets, or change in investor mood during significant financial events such as Quadruple Witching. An appreciating U.S. dollar, increasing bond yields, or relaxation in geopolitical tensions could short-term pressure prices. If gold falls below important support levels, it can induce a more serious correction, inducing caution among market participants. But such pullbacks will be considered as buying opportunities unless there is a significant change in broader market fundamentals.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall With USD Strength, Trade Policy Risks: Reactions and Forecast

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  • March 1, 2025
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Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, reaching $2,845, as the US Dollar rose to a 10-day high of 107.66 on concerns about increasing trade policy risks and recession. The market responded violently to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the expectation of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 with the first cut expected in June. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also indicated that progress toward the 2% inflation goal was being made, further stoking speculation of monetary ease. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped modestly, underpinning the USD rally, and traders took profits before the weekend. In spite of the recent bearish pressure, Goldman Sachs kept its medium-term bullish call, predicting the price of gold to hit $3,100 by the last quarter of 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar rallied in light of increasing trade tensions, as Trump levied 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, triggering market anxiety and recession jitters. • Markets expect a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, with the initial cut expected in June, which may affect gold prices and investor attitudes. • XAU/USD has critical support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900, with bearish momentum ongoing as traders take profits and rebalance portfolios. • In spite of short-term declines, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, forecasting gold prices to touch $3,100 by 2025-end. Gold prices have come under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% this week as the US Dollar gained strength in the face of increasing trade tensions and recession concerns. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China has created market uncertainty, pushing investors towards the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in June, have further influenced market sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s Core PCE Price Index signaled steady progress toward the 2% inflation target, reinforcing speculation of policy easing. Technically, XAU/USD struggles below $2,850, with key support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900. In spite of the recent decline, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about the long-term prospects, predicting gold prices to reach $3,100 by the end of 2025. Gold prices dived more than 3% this week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of trade policy worries and recession risk. Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada heightened market uncertainty, and the prospect of a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025 contributed to volatility. In the short term, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, predicting gold to hit $3,100 by the close of 2025. • XAU/USD dropped to $2,845 as the US Dollar gained strength due to trade tensions and recession fears. • The US imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China, creating uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 107.66, putting pressure on gold prices and drawing investors due to economic worries. • Markets are expecting a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, starting with the June cut, guiding gold’s movement. • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell modestly, driven by fears of economic slowdown and even monetary easing. • Gold has resistance at $2,900 and support at $2,800, as bearish momentum continues in the short term. • In spite of recent setbacks, Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, holding an upbeat long-term estimate. Gold prices came under heavy pressure this week as global economic issues and policy announcements influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar rallied with increased trade tensions, with President Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% on Chinese imports. These policies have contributed to economic uncertainty worldwide, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets and review their portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also showed consistent advancement toward the 2% goal, supporting expectations of monetary policy loosening in the months ahead. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, market attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with investors expecting a 70-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the initial cut expected in June. As growth forecasts for the economy change, worries about a possible recession continue to guide investments. The Atlanta Fed’s most recent GDPNow estimate is an indicator that the US economy is going into contraction, fueling speculation for future policy action. In the midst of these developments, financial markets across the globe are on tenterhooks, with investors keenly watching economic signals and policy initiatives that may impact financial markets over the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Precious gold prices have shown a bearish trend, posting consecutive losses as investors take profits and rebalance portfolios. XAU/USD was unable to sustain above the $2,850 level after dipping from its high point of $2,885, with major support at $2,800. A fall below this level would reveal further downside to the October 31 high at $2,790 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770. Support on the upside is at $2,900, then the year-to-date high of $2,956. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.229% has so far capped bullion’s rally, with falling real yields presenting ambivalent cues for gold’s next direction. With sustained market volatility, investors are on guard, weighing whether gold can stabilize or continue to lose ground. FORECAST Gold prices can expect bullish pressure in the next few months if market fears continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2025, with the first decrease scheduled for June, will weaken the US Dollar, making gold more desirable to investors. Furthermore, should inflationary forces continue or there is a ratcheting of geopolitical tensions, gold may turn stronger again with possible resistance areas at $2,900 and the year-high of $2,956. Long-term views, like that of Goldman Sachs’ expectation that gold will trade at $3,100 through the end of 2025, suggest the metal will

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

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  • February 21, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

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