Gold Price Holds Above $3,300 Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty
Gold prices remain resilient above the $3,300 level amid a complex mix of global economic and political factors. While diminishing hopes for a July Fed rate cut and Trump’s renewed tariff threats exert downward pressure, ongoing concerns over US fiscal stability and rising global risk aversion continue to support safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. US Dollar volatility contributes to the uncertainty, with gold prices stuck in a trading range until the more definitive indications from the FOMC meeting minutes ahead. There were no major economic data releases and market sentiment is being shaped predominantly by geopolitical events and US monetary policy expectations. KEY LOOKOUTS • The issuance of tariff deadline extensions and aggressive threats against BRICS-aligned countries are intensifying concerns of international trade disruption, weighing on market sentiment. • Increasing expectations of sustained high interest rates based on expected inflation from tariffs are dampening gold’s potential upside. • As the USD reached a two-week high, fiscal worries and risk aversion are limiting further advances, providing minimal support for gold prices. • Resistance at $3,347–$3,360 and support at $3,295–$3,270 are key levels to watch for traders as gold looks for direction in a muddled fundamental environment. Gold prices are under modest pressure but stay firm above the $3,300 level as markets absorb mixed signals on the global and domestic fronts. The fading prospects of a July Fed rate cut due to inflation fears fueled by Trump’s brash tariff policy is limiting the non-yielding metal’s upside momentum. Yet safe-haven demand remains as a result of mounting geopolitical tensions, doubt over US fiscal health, and widespread risk aversion across global equity markets. Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar acts to offset gold’s losses, with market players now looking to the coming FOMC meeting minutes for clearer direction on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Gold price lingers near $3,300 as markets balance ebbing Fed rate-cut hopes against increasing global risk aversion. Tariff threats by Trump and a tempered US Dollar cap losses, holding gold firm in advance of key FOMC minutes. • Gold holds above $3,300 despite small intraday declines, buoyed by safe-haven demand. • Ebbing hopes for a July Fed rate cut weigh on the non-yielding metal due to inflation worries. • Trump’s prolonged tariff threats against BRICS-aligned countries increase global economic insecurity. • The US Dollar hit a two-week peak but finds it difficult to rise further on fiscal and trade-related concerns. • Insufficient aggressive bearish bets on gold indicate investors remain cautious amid conflicting market cues. • Technical resistance around $3,347–$3,360 caps upside, whereas support at $3,295–$3,270 remains pivotal. • Market attention turns to FOMC minutes for more precise guidance on the Fed’s next rate trajectory and USD direction. Gold prices are stable above the $3,300 level as investors remain conservative in light of increasing global uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s return to threats to impose higher tariffs—particularly on nations aligning with BRICS—has renewed apprehension regarding global trade disruptions and inflation. This change in trade policy has not just shaken market sentiment but also made it more difficult for the Federal Reserve’s strategy, as policymakers might now be required to hold higher interest rates for a longer period than expected to suppress inflationary pressures. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, the US Dollar has also indicated strength but is held back by perceptions related to the fiscal health of the country and the general impact on the economy of tariff hikes. The dearth of specific economic data during the early part of the week has kept markets focused on wider geopolitical events and future policy guidance from the Federal Reserve. Here, gold is still taking advantage of its safe-haven demand, as global equities are experiencing distress and investor sentiment remaining weak. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is running into resistance at the $3,347-$3,348 level, which is around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A continued advance beyond this level may trigger short-covering and send prices to the $3,360 supply zone, with a break-out opening up the psychological $3,400 mark. To the downside, near-term support is in the $3,300–$3,295 area, which has thus far managed to cap further declines. A firm fall through this level may fan selling pressure, leading the metal to the next major support at $3,270, and even lower down to June’s low around $3,247. FORECAST If gold can clear the near-term resistance at $3,348 and hold on for more than the $3,360 supply zone, it may signal a bullish breakout. This could draw in new buying interest, creating a short-term rally toward the $3,400 psychological level. Ongoing global risk aversion, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or any dovish comments from the upcoming FOMC minutes could further fuel the upside path for gold. On the other hand, if gold is unable to sustain the $3,300–$3,295 support level, it can expect to come under more selling pressure. A firm break below the range can pave the way to the $3,270 support level, and more losses can bring the price down to the June swing low of approximately $3,247. A stronger US Dollar, hardline Fed perspective, or decline in global tensions can serve as triggers for this bearish move.