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Gold Bulls Hold Ground as Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Uncertainty Push XAU/USD to Record Highs

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  • September 12, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is holding its ground near record highs as a mix of Fed rate cut speculation, a soft US Dollar, and heightened geopolitical tensions power safe-haven demand. Weaker US labor market data and softer inflation have eclipsed more robust inflation, underpinning expectations for sharp policy easing by the Federal Reserve, and increased political instability in France and Japan, rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, and Middle East unrest further add to the attractions of gold. In spite of overbought sentiment and bullish market tone capping aggressive purchases, the metal is poised for a fourth straight week of robust gains, with the potential for further gains to $3,700. KEY LOOKOUTS • Three rate cuts this year are fully priced in by markets, beginning with a 25 bps cut next FOMC meeting. • USD stays down at multi-month lows as Treasury yields fall to five-month low, underpinning gold prices. • Safe-haven demand is fueled by rising tensions from Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East instability, and fresh trade sanctions. • Major resistance is at $3,675–$3,700, with short-term support at $3,630 and more heavily at $3,580–$3,560. Prices for gold are remaining close to historic highs as investors persist in preferring the metal against the backdrop of anticipated multiple cuts in Fed rates and continued geopolitical tensions. Weaker than expected US labor market data strengthened the argument for drastic monetary easing, keeping the US Dollar weak and Treasury yields at multi-month lows that in turn support non-yielding gold. Rising tensions in Russia and Ukraine, political upheavals in Europe and Asia, and continuing trade frictions also add to the metal’s safe-haven attraction. In spite of overbought technical levels, the overall outlook is bullish, and gold is headed for its fourth straight week of gains. Gold remains near record levels as Fed rate cut expectations and a soft US Dollar fuel safe-haven demand. Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties additionally support the bullish momentum, keeping the metal headed for weekly gains. • Gold (XAU/USD) remains near record levels on the back of Fed rate cut expectations. • Mild US labor market indicators have taken attention away from high inflation readings, adding to policy easing speculation. • Three Fed rate cuts are being priced in this year, beginning at the next FOMC meeting. • US Dollar is at multi-month lows as Treasury yields reach a five-month trough. • Geopolitical tensions from Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East unrest, political instability in France and Japan enhance safe-haven demand. • Technical analysis indicates resistance at $3,675–$3,700 and support at $3,630–$3,580 levels. • Gold is poised for its fourth straight week of solid gains on the back of overbought levels. Gold remains in high demand with investors as hopes for several Federal Reserve rate reductions linger strongly on the US Dollar and underpin demand for the haven metal. Weaker US labor market reports have overshadowed stronger inflation reports to further cement the argument for aggressive monetary easing throughout the year. With Treasury yields trending downward to multi-month lows, the non-yielding yellow metal is still a popular choice for investors looking for stability in uncertain times. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In addition to monetary policy, increasing geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in major economies further increase gold’s appeal. The Russia-Ukraine war, continuing instability in the Middle East, and trade pressures on international markets have all contributed to safe-haven inflows. Furthermore, political unrest in France and Japan contribute to the uncertain environment, making gold a choice asset for risk-shy investors and keeping sentiment decidedly supportive. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold holds a bullish setup by trading near all-time highs, although overbought daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings warrant caution. Near-term resistance is in the $3,657–$3,675 area, with a broken trendline above opening the door for the psychological $3,700 level. On the flip side, near support is at $3,630, and then at $3,612 and $3,600, which are solid cushions, which, if broken, might initiate a bigger correction towards the $3,580–$3,560 area. Technically, the outlook remains positive for buyers as long as gold remains above its crucial support levels. FORECAST Gold is well-placed to carry on with its rally as Fed rate cut hopes, muted US Dollar, and geopolitical tensions continue to present a favorable situation. A clean break above the $3,675–$3,700 level may pave the way for new all-time highs, with momentum propelling prices towards the $3,720–$3,750 level. Safe-haven demand, along with continued US yield weakness, is set to support bullish sentiment in the short term. Conversely, overbought technical levels and an overall upbeat risk sentiment may cap aggressive purchases, prompting profit-taking in the near term. Gold may test lower levels at $3,600 and $3,580 if it falls below the $3,630 support level, with a deeper correction laying bare the $3,560–$3,510 area. Although the underlying picture is favorable, short-term declines cannot be discounted as investors book profits following recent record prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rises to All-Time Highs Over $3,600 on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Safe-Haven Buying Panic

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  • September 8, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to new all-time highs over $3,600 per ounce on safe-haven buying panic and growing speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Soft US labor market numbers, topped by a big miss in Nonfarm Payrolls and an increase in unemployment, confirmed expectations of a 25 bps cut, with some speculators even looking at a bigger move. A declining US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and international geopolitical and political doubts continued to fuel the rally, maintaining Gold’s bullish momentum as the markets now anticipate the next US PPI and CPI releases for confirmation of the Fed’s next policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets price in a full 25 bps September Fed cut, with mounting speculation of a bigger 50 bps move. • This week’s PPI and CPI releases will be important in building expectations for the policy inclination of the Fed. • Geopolitical tensions, Japanese and French political unrest, and trade risks across the globe continue to enhance the attraction of Gold. • Support at the moment is close to $3,550–$3,500, while targets on the upside extend towards $3,650 and $3,700. Gold extends record-breaking surge, trading above $3,630 as safe-haven buying and strong Federal Reserve rate cut expectations keep the trend in motion. Poor US labor market statistics, such as a big miss in Nonfarm Payrolls and increasing unemployment, added to the expectation of a September rate cut, and declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar provided additional support. Geopolitical concerns and political uncertainties in France and Japan have strengthened the safe-haven strength of Gold, with buyers firmly in command as the market looks at major US inflation data later this week to see if the Fed chooses to make a standard 25 bps cut or weigh a bigger move. Gold jumps to new record highs near $3,630 on rising safe-haven demand and bets on Fed interest rate cuts, fueled by weak US labor, a weaker Dollar, and declining Treasury yields. Traders look to near-term PPI and CPI reports for policy direction. • Gold rises further above $3,630, posting new record highs. • Markets price almost a sure 25 bps September rate reduction with only a 10% chance of 50 bps. • August NFP created only 22K jobs versus 75K anticipated; unemployment level rose to 4.3%. • PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday are more important for determining Fed’s move. • Benchmark 10-year yield falls closer to 4.05%, favoring Gold’s bullish side. • Political instability in Japan and France together with trade risks perk up safe-haven demand. • Firm support at $3,550–$3,500 with upside targets at $3,650 and $3,700. Gold has risen to new all-time highs above $3,600 per ounce as a mix of safe-haven buying and increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September pushed the yellow metal to the highest level ever. The rally took hold after softer-than-anticipated US jobs numbers revealed a mere 22,000 jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate reaching its worst level since 2021. This supported expectations of a rate cut, which markets now perceive as nearly certain, as policymakers turn their attention to stabilizing the labor market and boosting growth. A weaker US Dollar and falling Treasury yields have added to the metal’s attractiveness, making Gold one of the year’s best-performing assets. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from economic releases, outside factors are also driving investor appetite for Gold. Central banks globally are still diversifying their reserves out of the US Dollar, and geopolitical risks and political instability in nations such as Japan and France are strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets. Trade policy risk in the United States provides investors with an additional note of caution, as they are increasingly looking toward Gold as a store of value. With inflation readings coming out later this week, attention now turns to how these points will influence the Federal Reserve’s next move, keeping Gold in the forefront as investors look for stability in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is solidly bullish as it trades way above its short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating high underlying momentum. The breach of the $3,500 consolidation range has laid the way to higher grounds, and the initial upside targets are at $3,650 and $3,700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought levels, which implies the threat of near-term pullbacks, but the trend continues as long as prices stay above the support zone of $3,550–$3,500. The Average Directional Index (ADX) greater than 30 also indicates the strength of the current rally, where the buyers are in command. FORECAST Gold’s momentum continues strong as investors price in nearly certain Fed rate cut in September, and growing speculation on a bigger 50 bps move if inflation data remains weak. Weak US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and continued geopolitical tensions offer further support, with the bias still upward. If safe-haven demand continues, Gold may test new psychological levels at $3,650 and perhaps $3,700 in the coming term. Despite the dominant bullish trend, threats of a corrective pullback persist as technical measures signal overbought readings. Any better-than-anticipated US PPI or CPI reading this week could reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, triggering profit-taking in Gold. Supportively, $3,550 is instant support, and a deeper retracement to $3,500 is possible if market sentiment changes.

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