Forex Trading Tools and Services

Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Safe-Haven Demand Grows and Trade War Fears Bite: Key Drivers Behind XAU/USD Trends

  • BY
  • March 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Prices of gold keep rising as demand for safe haven increases in the wake of rising trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports have taken a toll on markets, leading investors to turn to the precious metal as a safe haven. The US also suspended military aid to Ukraine, further boosting gold’s attractiveness. But there are challenges to non-yielding assets such as gold by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. Market players await further guidance from key US economic indicators such as the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change. Technically, gold is still in an uptrend channel, maintaining above important psychological support at $2,900, with scope for more on the upside towards its all-time peak of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • Raising US tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China add to market volatility, fueling safe-haven buying and underpinning gold prices amid economic uncertainty. • Increasing US Treasury yields are exerting bear pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, possibly capping further gains despite firm safe-haven demand. • The US suspension of military aid to Ukraine stokes geopolitical tensions, making gold more attractive as investors seek refuge from global uncertainty. • Future US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports will hold key to gauging economic growth, potentially impacting gold’s short-term price action. Prices of gold continue to be at the center as investors try to navigate a contradictory blend of trade tensions, growing US Treasury yields, and geopolitics. Implementation of US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has added to geopolitical tensions, contributing to gold’s bullishness. Yet increasing Treasury yields are a threat to non-yielding assets such as gold, and this may limit gains. Traders now look forward to some major US economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, which may further guide XAU/USD in the near term. Gold prices jump as growing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties trigger safe-haven demand. Increasing US Treasury yields, however, pose a hurdle to further growth. Market guidance comes from forthcoming key US economic data. • Gold prices jump as investors search for refuge due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. • Fresh US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spur market volatility, contributing to gold’s rising momentum. • US suspension of military aid to Ukraine contributes to worldwide uncertainty, making gold more attractive. • Higher yields squeeze non-yielding assets such as gold, constraining further price appreciation. • A stronger US Dollar suppresses gold, producing mixed market sentiment. • Market participants monitor the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports closely for information about economic growth. • Gold maintains major support at $2,900, with the resistance at its all-time high of $2,956. Gold prices continue to gain steam as investors move towards safe-haven assets following rising global uncertainties. The latest imposition of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China has increased market uncertainty, and with it, there are fears of a possible trade war. This has led investors to find safe haven in gold, which is conventionally considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has further added to global tensions, supporting gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset during uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from trade and geopolitical issues, market participants are also paying close attention to important US economic indicators. Indices like the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change are likely to offer insights into the resilience of the US economy, impacting investor attitudes. Although worries about weakening economic growth continue, the effect of tariffs on international trade and consumer expenditure is a significant area of concern. Against this backdrop, gold remains in the limelight as a safe-haven asset, a sign of investors’ conservative approach to an increasingly complex financial environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is still in an uptrend channel, signaling a long-term bullish trend. The metal is still trading above the important psychological support level of $2,900, which coincides with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, supporting bullish momentum. Should the price hold above this level, it might target primary resistance at $2,956, its all-time high. But a breakdown below immediate support can soften short-term momentum, potentially resulting in a pullback to lower trendline support. In general, technical indicators indicate that the bullish bias is still intact unless a serious breakdown happens. FORECAST Gold prices should continue to enjoy a bullish picture in the near term as demand for safe haven continues to rule investor sentiment. The rising tensions in trade, especially the US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, may further push gold’s attraction. Moreover, geopolitical risks such as the US suspending aid to Ukraine are contributing to risk globally, for which gold seems to be the attractive asset. If economic concerns continue to deepen and market fears intensify, gold may receive an upward push towards its all-time high of $2,956. Solid buying interest at critical support levels and continuous momentum above the $2,900 level might consolidate the bullish trend. To the downside, increasing US Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar might press on gold prices, capping further advances. Increased bond yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which can lead to profit-taking. Also, if the next US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, show the economy is resilient, gold may come under pressure. A break below the $2,900 psychological support level can lead to further losses, with the next significant support at $2,850. But until investor sentiment takes a dramatic turn, any bearish movement could still be capped.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall With USD Strength, Trade Policy Risks: Reactions and Forecast

  • BY
  • March 1, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, reaching $2,845, as the US Dollar rose to a 10-day high of 107.66 on concerns about increasing trade policy risks and recession. The market responded violently to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the expectation of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 with the first cut expected in June. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also indicated that progress toward the 2% inflation goal was being made, further stoking speculation of monetary ease. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped modestly, underpinning the USD rally, and traders took profits before the weekend. In spite of the recent bearish pressure, Goldman Sachs kept its medium-term bullish call, predicting the price of gold to hit $3,100 by the last quarter of 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar rallied in light of increasing trade tensions, as Trump levied 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, triggering market anxiety and recession jitters. • Markets expect a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, with the initial cut expected in June, which may affect gold prices and investor attitudes. • XAU/USD has critical support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900, with bearish momentum ongoing as traders take profits and rebalance portfolios. • In spite of short-term declines, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, forecasting gold prices to touch $3,100 by 2025-end. Gold prices have come under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% this week as the US Dollar gained strength in the face of increasing trade tensions and recession concerns. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China has created market uncertainty, pushing investors towards the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in June, have further influenced market sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s Core PCE Price Index signaled steady progress toward the 2% inflation target, reinforcing speculation of policy easing. Technically, XAU/USD struggles below $2,850, with key support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900. In spite of the recent decline, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about the long-term prospects, predicting gold prices to reach $3,100 by the end of 2025. Gold prices dived more than 3% this week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of trade policy worries and recession risk. Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada heightened market uncertainty, and the prospect of a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025 contributed to volatility. In the short term, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, predicting gold to hit $3,100 by the close of 2025. • XAU/USD dropped to $2,845 as the US Dollar gained strength due to trade tensions and recession fears. • The US imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China, creating uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 107.66, putting pressure on gold prices and drawing investors due to economic worries. • Markets are expecting a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, starting with the June cut, guiding gold’s movement. • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell modestly, driven by fears of economic slowdown and even monetary easing. • Gold has resistance at $2,900 and support at $2,800, as bearish momentum continues in the short term. • In spite of recent setbacks, Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, holding an upbeat long-term estimate. Gold prices came under heavy pressure this week as global economic issues and policy announcements influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar rallied with increased trade tensions, with President Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% on Chinese imports. These policies have contributed to economic uncertainty worldwide, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets and review their portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also showed consistent advancement toward the 2% goal, supporting expectations of monetary policy loosening in the months ahead. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, market attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with investors expecting a 70-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the initial cut expected in June. As growth forecasts for the economy change, worries about a possible recession continue to guide investments. The Atlanta Fed’s most recent GDPNow estimate is an indicator that the US economy is going into contraction, fueling speculation for future policy action. In the midst of these developments, financial markets across the globe are on tenterhooks, with investors keenly watching economic signals and policy initiatives that may impact financial markets over the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Precious gold prices have shown a bearish trend, posting consecutive losses as investors take profits and rebalance portfolios. XAU/USD was unable to sustain above the $2,850 level after dipping from its high point of $2,885, with major support at $2,800. A fall below this level would reveal further downside to the October 31 high at $2,790 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770. Support on the upside is at $2,900, then the year-to-date high of $2,956. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.229% has so far capped bullion’s rally, with falling real yields presenting ambivalent cues for gold’s next direction. With sustained market volatility, investors are on guard, weighing whether gold can stabilize or continue to lose ground. FORECAST Gold prices can expect bullish pressure in the next few months if market fears continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2025, with the first decrease scheduled for June, will weaken the US Dollar, making gold more desirable to investors. Furthermore, should inflationary forces continue or there is a ratcheting of geopolitical tensions, gold may turn stronger again with possible resistance areas at $2,900 and the year-high of $2,956. Long-term views, like that of Goldman Sachs’ expectation that gold will trade at $3,100 through the end of 2025, suggest the metal will

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

  • BY
  • February 21, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise Despite Market Uncertainty: Investors Look to Fed Rate Reductions and Central Bank Buying

  • BY
  • February 15, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices are poised to post a weekly gain of more than 0.80%, following a Friday dip, as investors absorb soft US Retail Sales data and declining Treasury yields. The US Dollar declined, boosting bullion’s appeal, while markets factored in more than a single Federal Reserve rate reduction, further bolstering gold’s longer-term prospects. Central bank buying continues to be robust, with more than 1,000 tons purchased for the third year in a row, supporting gold’s bullishness. Technically, XAU/USD is still in an uptrend, with support at $2,850 and resistance around its all-time high of $2,942. Traders continue to watch FOMC minutes and upcoming economic releases for additional price guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Multiple Fed rate cuts are being priced in by investors, enhancing gold’s attractiveness as the lowering of interest rates lessens the opportunity cost of holding bullion. • A weakening US Dollar, caused by disappointing retail sales, is making gold look more attractive as a safe-haven asset with economic uncertainty. • Central banks worldwide continue heavy gold purchases at more than 1,000 tons for the third year running, strengthening long-term bullish trend. • Gold has crucial resistance at $2,942, with the potential breakout point at $3,000, and support at $2,850 and $2,790 in the event of pullbacks. Gold continues to be poised for significant gains as several factors underpin its bullish trend. Disappointingly low US Retail Sales have stoked a dip in the US Dollar, bolstering gold’s safe-haven status. Investors are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering Treasury yields and making non-yielding assets such as gold more appealing. Moreover, central bank buying is still going through the roof, with more than 1,000 tons of gold purchased for the third year in a row, bolstering demand. Technically, although gold encounters resistance at its all-time high of $2,942, a breakout has the potential to drive prices to the $3,000 level, while support levels are critical at $2,850 and $2,790. Gold will close the week with strong gains in spite of Friday’s decline, propelled by softer US Retail Sales, weakening US Dollar, and rising Fed rate cut probabilities. Central bank buying keeps surging, supporting long-term fundamentals. Strong resistance at $2,942, with a possible breakout to $3,000. • Gold will close the week 0.80% higher in spite of a Friday pullback, demonstrating exceptional bullish sentiment. • Weaker-than-projected US Retail Sales caused a weakening US Dollar, improving gold’s safe-haven demand. • Investors expect several Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering Treasury yields and making gold even more appealing. • Global central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third year in a row, consolidating long-term bullish pressure. • The Greenback reached yearly lows, supporting higher gold prices further. • Major resistance is at $2,942, with the possibility of moving towards $3,000 if the buyers are able to maintain momentum. • Gold’s nearest support is at $2,850, then key levels at $2,790 and $2,730 in the event of a retracement. Gold is set to end the week with robust gains of 0.80%, despite Friday’s pullback, as investors respond to softer US Retail Sales and declining Treasury yields. The US Dollar has depreciated strongly, touching all-time lows on a yearly basis, and has further improved gold’s position as a safe haven. Second, investors now have priced in several Federal Reserve rate cuts, resulting in bond yields falling and making non-yielding assets such as gold attractive. Central bank demand also continues to be a primary driving force, as more than 1,000 tons of gold bought for the third year running continues its long-term bullish impetus. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold is to close out the week on firm gains of 0.80%, even after Friday’s pullback, as softer US Retail Sales and a falling US Dollar enhance its safe-haven status. Investors are now factoring in several Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing Treasury yields to decline and further bolstering the long-term picture for gold. Central banks continued their aggressive gold buying, fueling the optimism. On the technical side, gold is supported at $2,942 with a possible breakout to $3,000, while critical supports are $2,850 and $2,790. Market players now wait for the FOMC minutes to see what else they might indicate regarding monetary policy direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical outlook for gold is still bullish, even as the metal pulls back recently, trading currently close to $2,883 following a two-day low of $2,878. The uptrend continues intact provided buyers protect crucial support points starting at $2,850, then $2,790 and $2,730. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of overbought levels, indicating a possible consolidation before the next move higher. If gold is able to break above the $2,900 level, the next important resistance is at the all-time high of $2,942, with an extension possible towards the psychological $3,000 level. Traders will watch price action and future economic releases closely for additional confirmation of trend direction. FORECAST Gold prices’ bullish run is still on as a number of underlying and technical drivers remain in favor of higher prices. If the purchasing interest can propel gold above the $2,900 mark, the next threshold to watch is the all-time high price of $2,942. A move above this may cause additional gains towards the psychological level of $3,000. With investors already factoring in several Federal Reserve rate reductions and central banks still making robust gold purchases, the longer-term picture is still positive. Moreover, persistent US Dollar weakness and lower Treasury yields add to the support, and gold is a good hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. While the overall trend is positive, gold is subject to potential downside risks from profit-taking and important support levels being tested. If the metal dips below $2,850, more declines would send it to the October 31 cycle high support at $2,790, and then to the next important level at $2,730. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of overbought levels, which means there could be a short-term correction. If US economic indicators surprise on the upside

Read More