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Commodities Gold

Gold Holds Steady Near Record Highs Amid Trade Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Bets

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  • March 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate near its all-time highs, supported by rising trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Despite a subdued start to the week, the precious metal remains well bid due to safe-haven demand, while a weaker US Dollar further underpins the bullish outlook. Although China’s recent economic stimulus has improved global risk sentiment and capped immediate gains, the overall trend remains in favor of the bulls. Market participants now await the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh direction, with the broader setup suggesting potential for further upside momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS • All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is expected to provide clarity on interest rate cuts and drive the next major move in XAU/USD • Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising trade war fears continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, keeping it near record highs. • A weaker US Dollar, hovering near multi-month lows, remains a supportive factor for gold prices. Any shift in USD sentiment could influence gold’s direction. • Key support lies near $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 zones, while a sustained move above $3,000 could open doors for the next bullish leg in gold’s uptrend. As gold prices hover near record highs, market participants are closely watching several key factors that could influence the next move in XAU/USD. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision remains a critical event, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2025 supporting the bullish outlook for the non-yielding metal. At the same time, heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade conflicts continue to boost safe-haven demand. Additionally, the US Dollar’s weakness near multi-month lows lends further support to gold prices. On the technical front, crucial support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are in focus, while a clear break above the psychological $3,000 level could trigger a fresh bullish rally. Gold price remains well-supported near record highs amid Fed rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. A weaker US Dollar adds to the bullish momentum, while key technical levels around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 remain crucial for near-term direction. All eyes now turn to the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh cues. • Gold consolidates near all-time highs, staying just below the $3,000 psychological mark. • Safe-haven demand rises amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. • Fed rate cut expectations for 2025 continue to support the bullish outlook for XAU/USD. • US Dollar remains weak, hovering near multi-month lows, further boosting gold prices. • China’s economic stimulus lifts market sentiment, capping immediate gains in gold. • Technical support levels at $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are key zones to watch for any pullback. • The upcoming FOMC meeting is the most awaited event, likely to provide fresh direction for gold. Gold continues to hold its ground near record highs, driven by growing global uncertainties and strong safe-haven demand. Rising trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, including escalating situations in the Middle East and concerns over global economic stability, have reinforced gold’s appeal as a reliable store of value. Additionally, the market sentiment is being shaped by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates multiple times in 2025, as signs of economic slowdown and softer inflation data emerge in the U.S. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Adding to the supportive environment for gold, the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure amid these rate cut expectations, making the precious metal more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, including initiatives to boost domestic consumption and support the housing sector, have helped improve market confidence globally. However, gold continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe haven amid global instability, keeping it in focus for investors seeking long-term security. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, having recently broken above key resistance levels and now consolidating near its all-time highs. The overall market structure suggests continued upward momentum, supported by strong buying interest on any dips. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, signaling a possibility of short-term consolidation, the broader chart pattern still favors the bulls. Key support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 could act as potential entry points for buyers, while a sustained move above the $3,000 psychological mark may open the door for further upside in the coming sessions. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory if current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions persist. Expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, combined with ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties, could continue to fuel safe-haven demand. A sustained weak US Dollar would further support this bullish outlook, potentially pushing gold beyond the $3,000 psychological mark. If risk sentiment weakens and investors seek safety, gold could attract more inflows, paving the way for new record highs in the coming months. On the flip side, any signs of easing geopolitical tensions or a shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone toward a more hawkish stance could limit gold’s gains or even trigger a pullback. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US economic data or a rebound in the US Dollar may reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal. If global markets regain stability and risk appetite improves, investors might shift focus away from safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a moderate decline in prices from current elevated levels.

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Commodities Gold

Gold’s Historic Leap Above $3,000: Market Responses, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Prospects Ahead

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  • March 15, 2025
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Gold prices leapt above the historic $3,000 level to an all-time high of $3,004 per ounce before retreating to $2,982 due to US Dollar fluctuations and uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump’s trade agenda. The price rally was propelled by geopolitical uncertainties, such as the weakening Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and China’s ongoing gold buildup, which drove demand for the safe-haven metal. At the same time, fears of US recession intensified in the wake of soft consumer sentiment readings, fueling speculation about further easing of Federal Reserve policy in 2025. Despite the retreat, technical analysts foresee another attempt to drive prices higher to test resistance levels with support at $2,950 and resistance at $3,050 and $3,100 being key. KEY LOOKOUTS • Having briefly breached $3,000, gold bounces off $3,050 while support at $2,950 is still the key to knowing what will happen next. • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire uncertainty and China’s continuing gold purchases would potentially affect bullion demand and price movements. • Subdued consumer confidence and increasing recession worries boost hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions, affecting the long-term outlook of gold. • Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum can stoke inflation fears, impacting the US Dollar and pushing gold prices up as a safe-haven. Gold’s recent rally above $3,000 underscores the increasing influence of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and changing monetary policies on the demand for the precious metal. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is still tenuous, while China’s ongoing gold hoarding underpins bullish sentiment. At the same time, US recession concerns have grown amid weak consumer sentiment numbers, increasing expectations of possible Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. Also, President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs have fueled inflationary fears, diminishing the US Dollar and further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset. While traders closely follow future economic data and Fed moves, gold’s capacity to hold onto its all-time highs will hinge on changing market dynamics. Gold’s historical rally above $3,000 is a response to increasing geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and inflation threats. Negative US consumer sentiment and expectations of Fed rate cuts drive bullish pressures, while Trump’s tariffs impose stress on the US Dollar, enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Gold momentarily peaked at a new all-time high of $3,004 per ounce before receding to $2,982 due to market volatility. • Failing Russia-Ukraine truce and persistent China gold buildup stimulate safe-haven demand for bullion. • Dovish consumer sentiment information heightens prospects of economic slow-down, sparking Federal Reserve interest rate reduction anticipations for 2025. • New import tariffs on aluminum and steel set off inflation concern, drenching the US Dollar while perpetuating bull-run in gold. • Soft Greenback spurs gold prices upward, though Treasuries market yield shifts as well as expected inflation provide variability. • Gold is resisted at $3,050 and $3,100, with very strong support at $2,950, followed by $2,900 and $2,850. • Investors look forward to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for additional hints at interest rates and economic forecasts. Gold’s recent record of breaching $3,000 an ounce underscores growing global demand for safe-haven assets in light of increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite ceasefire efforts, remains a major factor influencing investor sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continues to expand its gold reserves, signaling strong institutional demand. The combination of these geopolitical risks and global market instability has further reinforced gold’s position as a preferred store of value. Furthermore, trade tensions, specifically US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, have stoked inflation fears, rendering gold a sought-after hedge against economic uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from geopolitics and trade policies, the US economy is also at the center of influencing gold’s demand. A sudden drop in consumer confidence, fueled by fears of economic slowdown, has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could relax monetary policy in 2025. The potential for lower interest rates and a weakening US Dollar enhances gold’s attractiveness as an alternative asset. Investors are eagerly awaiting future economic releases, such as retail sales and housing market reports, for additional clues regarding the health of the US economy. While uncertainty lingers, gold continues to be the focal point of investor attention, mirroring general anxiety regarding inflation, economic stability, and worldwide financial trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s technical picture indicates a phase of consolidation following a brief move above the $3,000 mark. The metal encountered resistance around $3,004 before retreating, signaling profit-taking and a temporary respite in bullish pressure. The important support is around $2,950, which if broken, can send prices lower to $2,900 and $2,850. On the other side, a consistent rally above $3,000 can put the fence open for another test of $3,050 and maybe $3,100. Traders are in wait-and-see mode regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, with expectations of interest rates influencing gold’s next move. FORECAST Gold’s upswing is in place as geopolitics, rising inflation expectations, and possible Federal Reserve rate reductions underpin prices higher. Gold can trigger yet another push upward to the next resistance levels at $3,050 and $3,100 if it stays above $3,000. Ongoing central bank purchases, especially from China, and weakening US Dollar may underpin additional support for the rally. Moreover, any increase in geopolitical tensions or dovishness from the Fed can fuel safe-haven demand, supporting gold’s long-term uptrend. Gold has good fundamentals but is exposed to downside risks if profit-taking becomes more aggressive or the US Dollar rallies unexpectedly. A fall below the critical support level of $2,950 can trigger a deeper correction towards $2,900 and $2,850. If economic reports, including retail sales or housing data, beat expectations, they may decrease the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts, capping gold’s gains. Additionally, if inflation continues to be contained and risk appetite grows, investors will turn their attention to other assets or equities and temporarily put pressure on gold prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Glimmers As Dollar Loses Strength: XAU/USD Breaks Over $2,910 Amid Global Market Nervousness

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  • March 11, 2025
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Gold prices rose to an incredible high on Tuesday, pushing up over the vital $2,900 level to test levels at around $2,910 on the back of a weakening US Dollar. A new injection into the Euro in response to the news of an imminent German defense spending agreement unleashed a domino effect, sliding the US Dollar Index and enhancing demand for the safe-haven metal. Simultaneously, global market mood is still susceptible to the escalating tariff tensions between Canada and China. With investors looking to the next Federal Reserve meeting on March 19 and the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a high chance of unchanged rates, Gold remains supported, both technically and fundamentally, as it wipes out early-week losses and gains bullish traction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold is trading above $2,910; a break above R1 may drive prices towards $2,933, in line with last week’s highs. • A softer US Dollar, prompted by Euro strength, continues to underpin Gold’s rally, maintaining bullish momentum in the short term. • Markets expect no rate change on March 19, but increasing rate-cut expectations for May may further shape Gold’s price action. • Persistent global tariff tensions and recession concerns add to Gold’s safe-haven allure, keeping investors wary yet hopeful of further gains. Gold are still closely correlated with wider macroeconomic and geopolitical events. The recent breakout over $2,910 emphasizes its potential for higher prices, with sights set on the next level of resistance at $2,933, coinciding with last week’s highs. A declining US Dollar, driven by a strengthening Euro off the back of Germany’s defense spending news, continues to drive bullish momentum in Gold. Further, investors are following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on March 19, at which no rate adjustment is anticipated, but the chances of a rate reduction in May are increasing. On the other hand, global trade tensions and fears of recession are boosting Gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s increase over $2,910 indicates strong bullish sentiment, with support coming from a depreciating US Dollar and geopolitics. Traders now focus on the March 19 Federal Reserve meeting, while global trade tensions further augment Gold’s safe-haven demand. • Gold prices recover strongly, rising above the $2,910 level and wiping out early-week losses. • Weaker US Dollar propels Gold, fueled by Euro strength following Germany’s defense spending deal headlines. • Technical breakout opportunity arises as Gold approaches resistance at $2,933, last week’s high. • Safe-haven demand increases as global trade tensions escalate and concerns of a possible economic slowdown grow. • CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% probability of no rate hike on March 19, but a 47.8% probability of a cut in May. • Support zone remains firm at $2,880–$2,873, keeping Gold technically supported for the time being. • Thai Baht gains from Gold rally, reflecting Thailand’s status as a regional Gold-trading hub amid currency market shifts. Gold remains in the limelight as economic and political changes around the world shape market sentiment. One major driver of Gold’s popularity is the weakening US Dollar, which was under pressure after reports of a possible defense budget agreement in Germany. This move supported the Euro and, in turn, pushed demand for the precious metal higher indirectly. With increasing uncertainties, Gold remains a trusted safe-haven asset, providing investors with a buffer against volatility in conventional markets. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are also a dominant theme influencing market sentiment. The growing trade tensions between Canada and China, as well as the fear of wider tariff wars, is spurring caution in global markets. Investors are also monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting closely, as interest rate announcements can have implications for the overall economic direction. In such a setting, Gold remains steadfast as a safe haven of value, drawing in those looking for stability in the midst of the tempest. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has regained bullish momentum after taking back the crucial $2,900 level and moving towards $2,910. The metal has also crossed above the daily Pivot Point at $2,895, indicating strength in intraday trading. If purchasing interest remains, the following resistance level to be aware of is around $2,933, which matches last week’s highs. In contrast, support is seen to be strong at $2,880, which has remained in place in recent sessions. If it breaks here, it can potentially open doors towards further support around $2,873 and $2,857, presenting important zones to be watched out for by traders in the short term. FORECAST Gold may continue to rise in the following sessions. Its clear break above the $2,910 level may set the stage towards the next significant resistance near $2,933, which is also last week’s high. Breaking through this zone might reinforce buying confidence and drive Gold towards fresh short-term highs, provided the US Dollar continues to weaken and global tensions persist. Also, increasing hopes of a potential rate cut in the near future could further help Gold’s bullish outlook. Gold could see selling pressure. A fall below the support of $2,880 would lead to a move towards $2,873, and then a more significant correction towards about $2,857. These are crucial checkpoints for the traders, as a break below these levels could indicate a change in short-term momentum. Further, if the geopolitical tensions are alleviated or the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish approach in the next meeting, it might cap Gold’s upside and raise downside risks.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Market Remains Steady Despite Tariff Easing, Fed Rate Cut Speculations

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  • March 7, 2025
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Gold maintains its consolidation phase, retaining its weekly gains as market forces adjust due to easing tariff tensions and Federal Reserve rate cut speculations. The Trump administration’s move to exempt Mexican and Canadian imports from new tariffs derailed briefly the bullion rally, as traders now target the forthcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report. Fed official Christopher Waller foreshadowed possible rate reductions later this year, in accordance with market forecast. In addition, tensions continue between the U.S. and China, while Bitcoin’s weakness after a reserve announcement contributes to market uncertainty. With gold lingering around $2,917, important technical benchmarks reflect a cautionary but upbeat attitude, with traders weighing macroeconomic signals in anticipation of the next major development. KEY LOOKOUTS • Fed official Christopher Waller hinted at two or three rate cuts this year, with June being a potential turning point for monetary policy. • Traders closely watch Friday’s U.S. jobs data, as a strong report could delay rate cuts, impacting gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset. • The Trump administration’s exemption of Mexico and Canada from new tariffs influenced market sentiment, and future trade policy changes could impact gold prices. • Gold fluctuates around $2,917, while support lies at $2,928 and resistance at $2,900; breaking these points may initiate immense price action. Gold traders are on tenterhooks as prime macroeconomic and geopolitical events influence investor sentiment. The possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicated by Christopher Waller, continues to propel bullion, with June being a turning point. Investors keenly await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which might impact Fed policy and affect the safe-haven demand for gold. The Trump administration’s announcement of exempting Mexico and Canada from new tariffs temporarily halted the rally in gold, but other trade policy changes may spark renewed volatility. Gold technically trades at $2,917, with resistance at $2,928 and solid support at $2,900, and these levels will be vital to short-term price action. Gold consolidates near $2,917 as traders eye key market drivers, including potential Fed rate cuts and the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Trump administration’s tariff exemption for Mexico and Canada briefly stalled bullion’s rally. • Gold remains steady near $2,917, consolidating gains for the third consecutive day amid shifting market dynamics. • Fed member Christopher Waller hints at two or three rate reductions in 2024, and June as a critical decision time. • Friday’s U.S. jobs data are awaited by traders, which may impact Fed policy and the safe-haven demand for gold. • The Trump administration’s move to exempt Mexico and Canada from new tariffs temporarily halted the rally in gold. • Bitcoin fell below $90,000 following President Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve plan which failed to impress investors. • Australia shipped a record $2.9 billion in gold to the U.S. in January due to concerns about possible tariffs. • Gold’s key support lies at $2,900, and resistance levels at $2,928 and $2,945 will chart its next direction. Gold continues to consolidate while market players are weighing global economic events and policy changes. The Federal Reserve’s position on whether there will be rate cuts remains an important determinant, with Christopher Waller predicting two or three cuts this year. This coincides with the expectations of markets, particularly in light of the continued focus on inflationary pressure and labor markets. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday is also seen to shed some light on the economy’s robustness, something that could feed into future decisions on monetary policy. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the same time, geopolitical and trade events also influence market sentiment. The Trump administration’s move to exempt Mexico and Canada from fresh tariffs temporarily dented investor sentiment, while US-China tensions remain a source of uncertainty. Recent record-high gold exports from Australia to the U.S. show the sustained demand for the metal in the wake of global trade tensions. Moreover, the surprise decline of Bitcoin after news of a strategic reserve highlights the volatility of the wider financial markets, potentially with an indirect impact on investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets such as gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to be in a state of consolidation, with the main technical levels dictating short-term price direction. Trading at around $2,917 currently, the metal finds immediate resistance at $2,928, with further up potential towards $2,945 as long as bullish pressure gains momentum. On the negative side, the psychological support of $2,900 continues to be important, serving as a buffer against falls. A fall below this level might open further downside to $2,874, where more buying interest could come in. Though the overall trend is still supportive based on hopes for future rate cuts, gold might need a new catalyst to move out of its present range and try to reach its all-time high of $2,956. FORECAST The bullish momentum in gold could gain strength if the Federal Reserve indicates more aggressive rate cuts in future meetings. A dovish bias, combined with economic uncertainty, might propel demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven. If gold is able to break above the $2,928 resistance level, it might set the stage for a move towards $2,945. A subsequent rally might challenge the all-time high of $2,956, particularly if geopolitical tensions or inflation worries return, making investors more interested in bullion. On the other hand, if future economic statistics, led by the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, paint a robust picture of the jobs market, that could temper hope of early cuts, putting bearish pressure on gold. Breaking below the psychological $2,900 support would possibly set further declines in motion, with the next significant level of support found at $2,874. A firmer U.S. dollar or higher bond yields may also keep gold prices down, and that could trigger a possible retest of lower prices if positive momentum is lost.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Forecast: Profit-Taking, Fed Rate Cut Speculation, and Market Trends With US Tariff Delays

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  • March 6, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) are seeing marginal profit-taking around $2,900 as US tariff tensions relax with a tariff delay on the importation of cars from Mexico and Canada. Despite this reprieve, tit-for-tat tariffs due in April still fuel safe-haven demand for the metal. While that is happening, investors are betting more on multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts as US economic indicators worsen, heightening recession fears. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and an important EU defense spending meeting contribute to the uncertainty in global markets. Technically, gold is still a “buy on dips,” with crucial support at $2,900 and resistance around the all-time high of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • The postponement of US car import duties on Mexico and Canada provides relief in the short term, but April reciprocal tariffs still favor gold demand. • Market participants are factoring in several Fed rate cuts as US economic data deteriorates, making gold more attractive as a hedge against economic uncertainty. • The ECB will reduce interest rates by 25 bps, affecting market sentiment and gold prices along with wider economic policy changes. • Gold is bullish with major support at $2,900 and resistance at $2,956. Investors are eagerly observing price movement for breakouts or corrections. Gold prices are still an investment focus area with market trends adjusting to ease in US tariff tensions and swelling Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. Though the pause on US auto import tariffs to Mexico and Canada is a near-term relief, retaliatory tariffs to be activated in April persist to drive safe-haven appetite. The multiple potential rate reductions by the Federal Reserve due to declining US economic indicators further heighten gold’s attraction. In the meantime, the expected 25 bps rate cut from the European Central Bank and a pivotal EU defense spending summit contribute to market volatility. With gold at around $2,900, pivotal technical levels such as support at $2,900 and resistance around $2,956 will be important for traders to monitor in this uncertain environment. Gold prices remain at $2,900 as US tariff delays give temporary relief, but future reciprocal tariffs maintain safe-haven demand. Traders expect several Fed rate cuts with deteriorating US economic data, while the ECB’s anticipated policy change contributes to market uncertainty. • The postponement of US car import tariffs on Mexico and Canada gives temporary relief, but April reciprocal tariffs maintain gold demand. • Despite some profit-taking, gold is still a sought-after hedge against economic and geopolitical risks. • Deteriorating US economic data have ignited speculation of a series of Fed rate cuts, making gold more attractive. • The ECB will likely lower rates by 25 bps, which could drive global market sentiment and gold prices. • Traders are reshuffling positions as bond markets already price in easing monetary policies. • The key support is at $2,900, and resistance around the all-time high of $2,956 will decide the direction for gold. • Global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may fuel swift price actions in gold. Gold continues to be a focus area in international markets as economic and geopolitical issues influence investor mood. The delay in US car import tariffs on Mexico and Canada has provided short-term relief, but the upcoming reciprocal tariffs in April keep uncertainty alive. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s stance as deteriorating US economic data strengthens the case for multiple interest rate cuts. As fears of economic slowdown abound, gold remains a go-to safe-haven asset, drawing investors seeking security in the face of uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the global level, the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision is another layer of market attention, as policymakers balance economic threats and possible stimulus. Moreover, general geopolitical developments, such as talks on European Union defense expenditures and ongoing trade policies, fuel investor hesitancy. With central banks and governments navigating these economic challenges, gold’s use as a hedge against uncertainty is firm, as institutional and retail investors continue to attract steady demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are sustaining a robust bullish bias, and important technical levels are guiding the market movements.The $2,900 level is an important psychological support point, stemming any further bearish pressure. If gold sustains above this area, it may draw fresh buying interest, and prices may be directed towards the next resistance levels. On the higher side, the first resistance is at $2,934, followed by an important hurdle at $2,950. A breakthrough above such levels may initiate the door to the retesting of the all-time high price level at $2,956. In the case of accelerating selling pressure, $2,879 might become support. Analysts continue watching out for momentum levels and sentiment signals in assessing what may next follow gold’s price direction. FORECAST  Market conditions uphold the bullish trend for gold amid the metal’s safe-haven image. With increasing anticipation of several Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued uncertainty in the global economy, gold may experience additional upside action. If investor attitude continues to be risk-averse and inflationary fears linger, gold might overcome significant resistance points, potentially surpassing its historic high of $2,956. Moreover, any surprise geopolitical tensions or central bank dovish policies might additionally fuel demand, pushing prices even higher in the months ahead. On the negative side, gold prices can experience intermittent corrections as a result of profit-taking and changing market sentiment. If US economic indicators indicate improvement or the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish, gold might suffer short-term pullbacks. Increased US dollar strength and higher bond yields can also pose headwinds, triggering dips to the $2,900 or even $2,879 support areas. Yet, until there is a dramatic change in international economic policies, every dip is likely to be perceived as a buying opportunity by long-term investors.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Safe-Haven Demand Grows and Trade War Fears Bite: Key Drivers Behind XAU/USD Trends

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  • March 5, 2025
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Prices of gold keep rising as demand for safe haven increases in the wake of rising trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports have taken a toll on markets, leading investors to turn to the precious metal as a safe haven. The US also suspended military aid to Ukraine, further boosting gold’s attractiveness. But there are challenges to non-yielding assets such as gold by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. Market players await further guidance from key US economic indicators such as the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change. Technically, gold is still in an uptrend channel, maintaining above important psychological support at $2,900, with scope for more on the upside towards its all-time peak of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • Raising US tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China add to market volatility, fueling safe-haven buying and underpinning gold prices amid economic uncertainty. • Increasing US Treasury yields are exerting bear pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, possibly capping further gains despite firm safe-haven demand. • The US suspension of military aid to Ukraine stokes geopolitical tensions, making gold more attractive as investors seek refuge from global uncertainty. • Future US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports will hold key to gauging economic growth, potentially impacting gold’s short-term price action. Prices of gold continue to be at the center as investors try to navigate a contradictory blend of trade tensions, growing US Treasury yields, and geopolitics. Implementation of US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has added to geopolitical tensions, contributing to gold’s bullishness. Yet increasing Treasury yields are a threat to non-yielding assets such as gold, and this may limit gains. Traders now look forward to some major US economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, which may further guide XAU/USD in the near term. Gold prices jump as growing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties trigger safe-haven demand. Increasing US Treasury yields, however, pose a hurdle to further growth. Market guidance comes from forthcoming key US economic data. • Gold prices jump as investors search for refuge due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. • Fresh US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spur market volatility, contributing to gold’s rising momentum. • US suspension of military aid to Ukraine contributes to worldwide uncertainty, making gold more attractive. • Higher yields squeeze non-yielding assets such as gold, constraining further price appreciation. • A stronger US Dollar suppresses gold, producing mixed market sentiment. • Market participants monitor the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports closely for information about economic growth. • Gold maintains major support at $2,900, with the resistance at its all-time high of $2,956. Gold prices continue to gain steam as investors move towards safe-haven assets following rising global uncertainties. The latest imposition of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China has increased market uncertainty, and with it, there are fears of a possible trade war. This has led investors to find safe haven in gold, which is conventionally considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has further added to global tensions, supporting gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset during uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from trade and geopolitical issues, market participants are also paying close attention to important US economic indicators. Indices like the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change are likely to offer insights into the resilience of the US economy, impacting investor attitudes. Although worries about weakening economic growth continue, the effect of tariffs on international trade and consumer expenditure is a significant area of concern. Against this backdrop, gold remains in the limelight as a safe-haven asset, a sign of investors’ conservative approach to an increasingly complex financial environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is still in an uptrend channel, signaling a long-term bullish trend. The metal is still trading above the important psychological support level of $2,900, which coincides with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, supporting bullish momentum. Should the price hold above this level, it might target primary resistance at $2,956, its all-time high. But a breakdown below immediate support can soften short-term momentum, potentially resulting in a pullback to lower trendline support. In general, technical indicators indicate that the bullish bias is still intact unless a serious breakdown happens. FORECAST Gold prices should continue to enjoy a bullish picture in the near term as demand for safe haven continues to rule investor sentiment. The rising tensions in trade, especially the US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, may further push gold’s attraction. Moreover, geopolitical risks such as the US suspending aid to Ukraine are contributing to risk globally, for which gold seems to be the attractive asset. If economic concerns continue to deepen and market fears intensify, gold may receive an upward push towards its all-time high of $2,956. Solid buying interest at critical support levels and continuous momentum above the $2,900 level might consolidate the bullish trend. To the downside, increasing US Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar might press on gold prices, capping further advances. Increased bond yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which can lead to profit-taking. Also, if the next US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, show the economy is resilient, gold may come under pressure. A break below the $2,900 psychological support level can lead to further losses, with the next significant support at $2,850. But until investor sentiment takes a dramatic turn, any bearish movement could still be capped.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rallies in the Face of Intensifying Trade War: Safe-Haven Demand and Market Uncertainty Push Prices Up

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  • March 4, 2025
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Gold jumped more than 1% as intensifying trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China drove demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from these nations, leading to retaliatory actions, including a 25% tariff from Canada and up to 15% levies from China on U.S. agricultural goods. The trade war uncertainty, combined with weakening U.S. Treasury yields at a five-month low, has bolstered the appeal of gold. Technicals are pointing towards more bullish pressure, with the main resistance at $2,917 and possible support at $2,866. Market players are also watching Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, which have climbed to 85.6%, further shaping the path of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • The back-and-forth tariffs among the U.S., Canada, and China are also sparking uncertainty and leading investors towards safe-haven investments such as gold. • The U.S. 10-year yield registered a five-month low at 4.11%, making gold even more appealing as a bet against economic unrest and inflation. • With 85.6% chances of a Fed interest rate cut within six months, falling interest rates would further continue gold’s momentum. • Gold is resisting at $2,917 while support at $2,866 is critical to break in order to avoid another fall in the market. Gold is gaining further traction as rising trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China push investors towards safe-haven. The move by the U.S. to impose retaliatory tariffs, such as Canada’s 25% tariff on American imports and China’s 15% tariffs on agricultural products, has increased market uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a five-month low of 4.11%, enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic turmoil further. As Federal Reserve rate cut hopes surged to 85.6% by June, decreasing interest rates could be supportive of gold prices further. From a technical standpoint, gold has resistance at $2,917, and support at $2,866 has to remain firm to avoid further downward pressure. Gold holds up as rising tensions in trade pressure safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury yields decline to a five-month low. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also stand at 85.6% and back bullish sentiment further, as central resistance at $2,917 and support at $2,866 will indicate the next move. • Tariffs imposed by the U.S., Canada, and China continue to fuel the uncertainty in markets and raise the safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold rose more than 1% and trades at about $2,910 on concerns of trade war and weakening U.S. Treasury yields. • The U.S. 10-year yield reached a five-month low at 4.11%, contributing to gold’s appeal as an alternative asset. • Market odds for a Fed rate cut within six months are up to 85.6%, further supporting gold’s bullishness. • Gold is encountering resistance at $2,917, with the record high of $2,956 the next big level to respect. • Support at $2,866 is vital to stave off more losses, with further support available at $2,842 in case selling rises. • Congested price bars signal uncertainty on the part of investors, while safe-haven demand is due to keep gold propped up against further backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gold continues to be in focus for investors amid rising trade tensions between the U.S., China, and Canada. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to charge tariffs on Chinese and Canadian imports has sparked reprisals with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on American goods and China imposing 15% tariffs on major agriculture products. This back-and-forth trade war has spurred economic volatility, causing safe-haven asset demand to increase, such as gold. With global markets responding to the latest disagreements, investors are keeping an eye on further policy actions and economic reactions from the involved countries. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Also, concerns regarding the general economic outlook still shape investor mood. The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure to reduce interest rates, with market expectations for a rate cut by June reaching 85.6%. Geopolitical news, such as the U.S. temporarily suspending military aid to Ukraine, also contributes to the uncertainty. As inflation worries linger and economic growth continues to slow, the position of gold as a hedge against uncertainty will continue to be strong, rendering it an attractive asset for conservative investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to exhibit good momentum, building on its recent gains as market uncertainty persists. The price is currently consolidating in a tight band, demonstrating indecision from investors following last week’s volatility. The intraday Pivot Point of $2,879 is acting as the main support, with resistance at $2,917 being the next level to monitor for further upward movement. If the bullish momentum continues, a possible test of the all-time high of $2,956 is still on the cards. On the bearish side, $2,866 is a very important support level, corresponding to earlier lows. A fall below this level may result in additional selling pressure towards $2,842. Investors need to keep a close eye on these levels, as any breakout would determine the direction of the next trend. FORECAST The bullish momentum in gold is still intact as global uncertainties push investors towards safe-haven assets. If trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China continue to escalate, gold prices may witness a further rally. A breakout above the crucial resistance at $2,917 could drive prices towards the all-time high of $2,956. Moreover, growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June can also add to gold’s upside, as lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar weaker and hence gold more desirable. If inflation fears continue along with slowing growth, gold could stay in favor, and upward pressure on prices would persist. Conversely, any easing of trade tensions or diplomatic breakthroughs can dampen gold’s safe-haven appeal. A rising U.S. dollar, potentially driven by more positive economic readings or lowered expectations for interest-rate cuts, would also serve as a potential damper for gold prices. In the event that selling builds momentum, falling through the significant support at $2,866 might lead to more losses to $2,842. More profound correction can

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall With USD Strength, Trade Policy Risks: Reactions and Forecast

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  • March 1, 2025
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Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, reaching $2,845, as the US Dollar rose to a 10-day high of 107.66 on concerns about increasing trade policy risks and recession. The market responded violently to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the expectation of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 with the first cut expected in June. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also indicated that progress toward the 2% inflation goal was being made, further stoking speculation of monetary ease. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped modestly, underpinning the USD rally, and traders took profits before the weekend. In spite of the recent bearish pressure, Goldman Sachs kept its medium-term bullish call, predicting the price of gold to hit $3,100 by the last quarter of 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar rallied in light of increasing trade tensions, as Trump levied 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, triggering market anxiety and recession jitters. • Markets expect a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, with the initial cut expected in June, which may affect gold prices and investor attitudes. • XAU/USD has critical support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900, with bearish momentum ongoing as traders take profits and rebalance portfolios. • In spite of short-term declines, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, forecasting gold prices to touch $3,100 by 2025-end. Gold prices have come under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% this week as the US Dollar gained strength in the face of increasing trade tensions and recession concerns. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China has created market uncertainty, pushing investors towards the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in June, have further influenced market sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s Core PCE Price Index signaled steady progress toward the 2% inflation target, reinforcing speculation of policy easing. Technically, XAU/USD struggles below $2,850, with key support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900. In spite of the recent decline, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about the long-term prospects, predicting gold prices to reach $3,100 by the end of 2025. Gold prices dived more than 3% this week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of trade policy worries and recession risk. Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada heightened market uncertainty, and the prospect of a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025 contributed to volatility. In the short term, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, predicting gold to hit $3,100 by the close of 2025. • XAU/USD dropped to $2,845 as the US Dollar gained strength due to trade tensions and recession fears. • The US imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China, creating uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 107.66, putting pressure on gold prices and drawing investors due to economic worries. • Markets are expecting a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, starting with the June cut, guiding gold’s movement. • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell modestly, driven by fears of economic slowdown and even monetary easing. • Gold has resistance at $2,900 and support at $2,800, as bearish momentum continues in the short term. • In spite of recent setbacks, Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, holding an upbeat long-term estimate. Gold prices came under heavy pressure this week as global economic issues and policy announcements influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar rallied with increased trade tensions, with President Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% on Chinese imports. These policies have contributed to economic uncertainty worldwide, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets and review their portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also showed consistent advancement toward the 2% goal, supporting expectations of monetary policy loosening in the months ahead. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, market attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with investors expecting a 70-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the initial cut expected in June. As growth forecasts for the economy change, worries about a possible recession continue to guide investments. The Atlanta Fed’s most recent GDPNow estimate is an indicator that the US economy is going into contraction, fueling speculation for future policy action. In the midst of these developments, financial markets across the globe are on tenterhooks, with investors keenly watching economic signals and policy initiatives that may impact financial markets over the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Precious gold prices have shown a bearish trend, posting consecutive losses as investors take profits and rebalance portfolios. XAU/USD was unable to sustain above the $2,850 level after dipping from its high point of $2,885, with major support at $2,800. A fall below this level would reveal further downside to the October 31 high at $2,790 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770. Support on the upside is at $2,900, then the year-to-date high of $2,956. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.229% has so far capped bullion’s rally, with falling real yields presenting ambivalent cues for gold’s next direction. With sustained market volatility, investors are on guard, weighing whether gold can stabilize or continue to lose ground. FORECAST Gold prices can expect bullish pressure in the next few months if market fears continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2025, with the first decrease scheduled for June, will weaken the US Dollar, making gold more desirable to investors. Furthermore, should inflationary forces continue or there is a ratcheting of geopolitical tensions, gold may turn stronger again with possible resistance areas at $2,900 and the year-high of $2,956. Long-term views, like that of Goldman Sachs’ expectation that gold will trade at $3,100 through the end of 2025, suggest the metal will

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dives to Three-Week Low in Face of Steeper USD and Fed Policy Sentiment Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have fallen to a three-week low, closer to the $2,850 level, after a steeper US Dollar and anticipation of the Federal Reserve extending its hawkish policy pushed it lower. While there has been a risk-off market mood as well as lower US Treasury bond yields, the precious metal persists in its bearish trend for the second session in a row. Investors are waiting with bated breath for the coming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation gauge that may shape the Fed’s interest rate view and dictate gold’s short-term direction. Technicals also paint a bearish picture, with more room for decline if support levels are broken. KEY LOOKOUTS • A generally firmer USD continues to weigh on gold prices as investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the face of ongoing inflation fears. • The release of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is likely to impact Fed interest rate decisions and may determine the direction of gold in the near future. • Gold has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which could mean an extended decline if major support levels near $2,800 hold firm. • Investors are wary of global economic risks, such as possible inflationary pressures from Trump’s planned tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and European Union imports. Gold prices continue to decline, hitting a three-week low of about $2,850 as a firmer US Dollar and the anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve dampen the market. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation indicator that may affect the Fed’s interest rate policy and, in turn, gold’s direction. Gold is still under selling pressure despite a risk-off mood and declining US Treasury yields. Technical indicators are signaling further weakness if major support levels, especially around $2,800, are broken. Moreover, market anxiety regarding possible inflationary impacts from Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and the European Union contributes to uncertainty in gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices declined to a three-week low around $2,850 due to a stronger USD and the anticipation of a hawkish Fed. Market participants are waiting for US PCE inflation data that could have implications for interest rates and gold’s direction. Technical indicators indicate more downside if support levels are breached. • XAU/USD declines around $2,850 as a stronger US Dollar weighs down on the market. • The US Dollar remains on the mend with expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. • Market participants look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for guidance on the Fed’s next step. • Policymakers focus on taming inflation, dampening expectations of rate cuts. • Gold falls below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating further losses if major support around $2,800 breaks. • In spite of market uncertainties, gold finds it difficult to attract safe-haven demand. • Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU can affect inflation and guide gold’s direction. Gold prices continue to be pressured due to a firming US Dollar and anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve depressing market sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is a key inflation indicator, is in the spotlight as market participants seek guidance on future interest rate action. As inflation fears continue, Fed policymakers have signaled a prudent stance towards cutting interest rates, supporting the Dollar’s strength. Moreover, recent evidence of steady US economic growth also makes the argument for maintaining interest rates high, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical and trade-related concerns contribute to the uncertainty. Investors are intently watching proposed tariffs by former US President Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, which can be inflationary in nature. These trade measures can influence global economic stability, shaping market sentiment for safe-haven assets. In the meanwhile, falling US Treasury bond yields and general risk-off market conditions have not gone far in favor of gold since traders are staying guarded before critical economic data and policy indications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has fallen beneath significant support points, suggesting potential extension of its corrective decline. The price has fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line of the rally from December through February, portending growing bearish momentum. Daily chart oscillators are establishing negative momentum, supporting the chance for further falls. If the sellers force the price down below the $2,855 level, the next major support is close to the $2,834 area, and then the 38.2% Fibonacci of $2,815-$2,810. A clear fall below the psychological $2,800 level could seal a bearish reversal. Conversely, a bounce above $2,867 might encounter resistance around the $2,885-$2,900 area, with continuous buying potentially revealing the all-time high of $2,956. FORECAST Gold may strengthen if future US economic releases, especially the PCE Price Index, indicate decelerating inflation, leading to hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve. A lower inflation reading can raise the chances of interest rate reductions, weakening the US Dollar and strengthening demand for gold as a safe-haven. Should gold recover the $2,867 resistance level, it may probe the $2,885-$2,900 zone, while a sustained breakout may propel it towards the $2,915 level. Stronger follow-through buying could take prices even closer to the lifetime high of $2,956 as buying interest picks up. Against the downside, gold will continue to be at risk if inflation does not recede and Fed officials continue to hint at a hawkish bias, underpinning the resilience of the US Dollar. A failure at levels above $2,855 would unleash a further bout of selling pressure that would push the price towards $2,834 support. A firm break beneath the $2,815-$2,810 zone would invite a slide toward the important psychological level of $2,800. If fear prevails, further losses look likely, that could push the price below $2,780, indicating an extended correction off recent highs.

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