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Commodities Gold

Gold Slips as Risk-On Sentiment and USD Uptick Weigh Before US CPI Report

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  • September 11, 2025
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Gold prices dipped on Thursday due to a higher risk-on sentiment across global equities and a slight rise in the US Dollar that prompted profit-taking on the precious metal. Though the safe-haven demand for gold softened as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei set all-time highs, hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week still hold back the downside. Geopolitical tensions, trade-related uncertainty, and political instability in Europe and Asia are also supporting losses, and now traders wait for the US CPI numbers for new direction on monetary policy and gold’s short-term fortunes. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be key to influencing expectations of the Fed’s next rate action. • Markets overwhelmingly expect a September rate cut, and some are factoring in the potential for a jumbo cut. • Increasing dangers of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO intervention, and fresh sanctions can bolster safe-haven demand. • Global equities’ record highs are taking away from gold’s traditional safe-haven status. Gold moves lower on Thursday as market players turn to riskier assets with record gains on world equities and a modest recovery in the US Dollar. The yellow metal is unable to build on its recent advance, although loss is capped by strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week and increased geopolitical tensions. Traders are now focusing on the next US CPI reading for new hints about the Fed’s policy course, which has the potential to deliver the next significant directional catalyst for gold. Gold dips as a firmer risk-on sentiment and a small USD recovery test the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, expectations for Fed rate cuts and the threat of geopolitics will act as a buffer against the downside in advance of the US CPI report. • Gold drifts down on Thursday with risk-on sentiment prevailing across global markets. • All-time highs in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei weaken safe-haven demand. • Slight US Dollar upturn contributes to pressure on gold prices. • Anticipation of rate cuts by the Fed next week caps the downside for the yellow metal. • US CPI report awaited for new policy signals and direction in the markets. • Geopolitical tensions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and fresh sanctions are supportive. •  Technical levels indicate $3,600 as short-term support, with resistance around $3,658–$3,675. Gold is trading cautiously as investors balance a positive risk-on sentiment in global markets with expectations of future Federal Reserve policy easing. All-time records in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei have diminished the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets, leading some to profit-taking in the yellow metal. Meanwhile, recent weakness in US producer price data has underpinned speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates at its policy meeting next week, maintaining gold at bay despite prevailing selling pressure. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from economic signals, geopolitical and political concerns are still in play as far as influencing investor attitudes towards gold. With tensions in the Russia-Ukraine crisis heightened further due to NATO involvement, coupled with an air of uncertainty within France and Japan, the safe-haven appeal of the metal is still emphasized. Trade tensions such as tariffs and sanctions enforced by the US are another risk component in the broader picture. These considerations are set to maintain gold in the spotlight as investors await the US CPI report for further direction on what the Fed is likely to do next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is displaying indications of short-term consolidation as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels, indicating the possibility of a brief pause or soft correction. Support is close by around the $3,600 mark, with more substantial cushions at $3,580 if selling continues. To the upside, there is resistance at $3,649–$3,658, with a retest of the all-time high at about $3,675 likely if investors are able to push higher. A sustained break above this range would clear the way towards the psychological $3,700 level. FORECAST Gold may pick up again on the upside if the next US CPI report indicates easing inflation, solidifying bets for swift Fed rate cuts. Any validation of gentler price pressures would probably top the US Dollar’s bounce and increase the demand for the non-yielding precious metal. In that case, gold could test its recent highs near $3,675, with the possibility to extend gains towards the $3,700 psychological level. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties could also sustain bullish conviction. Conversely, solid US CPI readings may temper hopes for rapid Fed policy easing, sparking renewed demand for the US Dollar and suppressing gold prices. The risk-on mood in equity markets may continue to undermine safe-haven inflows into gold. Here, prices would fall towards $3,600, with a steeper decline towards $3,580 if the selling pressure mounts further. Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical concerns should keep a steep corrective fall in check.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls Below $3,400 as Tariff Tensions and Fed Uncertainty Halt Rally

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  • August 6, 2025
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Gold retreated below the $3,400 level on Wednesday, breaking a four-day rally as investors became wary with increasing U.S. Treasury yields, fresh tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump, and Fed policy uncertainty. The gold metal ran into resistance at the psychological level, with pace slowing down even as geopolitics continued to remain tense and hopes were raised of a September rate cut. Weak U.S. economic indicators, such as ISM Services, and lingering inflation risks further dulled market sentiment, while rumors surrounding Fed leadership transition fuelled the defensive mood in money markets. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are closely observing for signs on a possible rate cut next month amidst conflicting economic data and political stress on the Fed. •  Trump’s new tariff threats—against pharma, semiconductors, India, and Russia—may trigger renewed trade tensions and affect safe-haven demand for gold. •  Gold is still struggling with the pivotal $3,400 level, with momentum indicators reflecting indecision and potential downside risks. •  The next nomination to fill departing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s seat could affect the policy tone at the Fed and cause market fluctuations. Gold prices dipped slightly below the $3,400 level on Wednesday, ending a four-day uptrend as investors reevaluated the Federal Reserve’s policy path and responded to revived global trade tensions. The metal also encountered solid resistance near the psychological threshold, with advances capped by a firm U.S. Dollar and Treasury yield rebound before a crucial debt auction. Political risks increased after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned and Trump’s hawkish tariff talk against various industries and nations. Expectations for a September rate cut remain intact, but the mix of economic uncertainty, inflation fear, and geopolitical events continues to instill a defensive trading tone for gold. Gold took a breather, dipping below $3,400 levels as investors balanced Fed policy risks and fresh tariff threats from President Trump. Higher Treasury yields and conflicting U.S. economic data further contributed to market caution, limiting gold’s upside. • Gold fell below $3,400 after rallying for four days, with strong resistance at the psychological level. • U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield reversing from a three-month low. • Trump ramped up tariff threats, versus pharma, semiconductors, India, and Russia, heightening geopolitics risk. •  ISM Services PMI declined to 50.1, marking stagnation in services and persisting labor market softness. •  Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stepped down, heightening uncertainty regarding the Fed’s course prior to the September policy meeting. •  Markets anticipate an 87% probability of a September rate cut, capturing anticipations of looser policy. • Technicals indicate indecision, with gold consolidating close to support at the 50-day SMA and resistance in the region of $3,390–$3,400. Gold prices continued to face pressure as investors became cautious amidst a jumbled array of political, economic, and monetary events. Former President Donald Trump rekindled global trade worries by using forceful tariff threats on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and nations such as India and Russia. These remarks injected new layers of geopolitical uncertainty, and investors sat on their hands. In the meantime, U.S. economic data have provided mixed signals with the ISM Services PMI flattening in July and increasing input costs suggesting chronic inflation, further clouding the question of the strength of the U.S. economy. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from economic considerations, political events at the Federal Reserve have also commanded investor interest. The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has left a key vacancy at a time of heightened market anxiety about imminent interest rate choices. Gossip regarding her replacement—plus Trump’s potential role in shaping the direction of the central bank—has served to further enhance the market’s conservative mood. With nothing significant on the horizon in terms of data releases, eyes now shift to future comments from Federal Reserve officials for possible hints at policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now consolidating just above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,346, having been unable to hold the breakout above the resistance zone of $3,390–$3,400. The metal briefly broke below the lower trendline of an ascending triangle pattern last week but bounced back above the 100-day SMA near $3,282. Momentum indicators are still mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuating around the neutral 52 level, indicating a lack of strong directional polarity. The MACD is displaying initial signs of a recovery with a small bullish crossover, pointing to ebbing bearish pressure. A conclusive close above $3,400 may initiate a rally towards $3,450 or even retest all-time highs of around $3,500. FORECAST If gold can overcome the critical $3,390–$3,400 resistance level with solid volume, it may spark renewed buying pressure. A breakout success would tend to draw new buying interest, clearing the way toward $3,450. Continued advances above that may revisit the all-time high at about $3,500, particularly if geopolitical tensions continue and market expectations for a September Fed rate cut grow further. On the negative side, if support at the 50-day SMA around $3,346 fails, gold could be vulnerable to further losses. Such a breach will set the stage for the retesting of the 100-day SMA around $3,282, which was a strong support level in the last week’s selloff. If bearish pressure grows stronger and prices sink below that, the subsequent targets would be close to $3,200 and $3,150, particularly if U.S. economic indicators surprise to the higher side or political uncertainty surrounding the Fed diminishes.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls on Modest USD Strength, but Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Provide Support

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  • August 4, 2025
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Gold prices started the week lower, pulling back from recent highs as the US Dollar recovered some ground against a modest rise in Treasury yields. But the negative for the precious metal seems to be in short supply given rising market hopes for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, political tension over the Fed’s independence, and rising geopolitical tensions following the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia. All this continues to support gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, and the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish even with short-term ups and downs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing speculation of a rate cut continues to limit USD strength and underpins gold prices. • Deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia increases safe-haven demand in the face of increasing global uncertainty. • Deterioration in weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers and revisions signal a slowing economy, supporting gold. • Look for support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,370–$3,400 for possible breakout or pullback signals. Gold prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week as reduced Treasury yield pressures allowed the US Dollar to recover some ground. This slight fall aside, the forward-looking precious metal continues to be supported by increasing anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has moderated wider USD advances. Further, geopolitical uncertainties—specifically the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia—are also lending additional support to gold’s safe-haven status. Traders are now looking to future US economic data and risk sentiment for guidance on the next move for XAU/USD. Gold price inches lower on modest USD strength but is underpinned by expectations of Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical tensions. Market attention now turns to release of US economic data and overall risk appetite for further guidance. • Gold price retreated from more than one-week high at $3,369 on fresh USD buying. • Modest recovery in US Treasury yields underpinned the US Dollar, driving gold prices lower. • September Fed rate cut hopes remain to cap non-yielding gold’s downside. • Soft US jobs data, including below-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls, fueled rate cut expectations. • Political tension surrounding the independence of the Fed is suppressing aggressive USD rebound. • Geopolitical concerns escalated after the US sent nuclear submarines to the vicinity of Russia. • Technical support remains at $3,300, and a breach above $3,370 may lead to $3,400+. Gold still draws the interest of investors amidst a complicated combination of economic and geopolitical events. Although the metal started the week weaker, its long-term attraction is firm because market belief is increasingly building that the Federal Reserve is moving towards the start of a rate-cutting cycle, perhaps in September. The latest US jobs report, which recorded a significant slowdown in job recruitment and a rise in unemployment, has added to the perception that the US economy is slowing. This supports the case for softer interest rates, which have traditionally helped gold since it does not pay interest and tends to thrive in low-rate conditions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, political uncertainty is growing. The impromptu removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics by President Trump and the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor have spooked the market with fears over the independence of the Fed. The incidents raise the wariness of investors and improve the attraction of safe-haven instruments such as gold. Geopolitical tensions also continue to mount, with the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia in response to aggressive rhetoric, adding further to concerns of international instability. These considerations together create a solid fundamental underpin for gold over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the resistance level of $3,335 recently and also above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Oscillators are becoming positively more bullish, indicating ongoing dip-buying interest near support levels. Primary support now resides in the vicinity of $3,340–$3,338, with additional buying anticipated near $3,320 if that does come under test. On the positive side, a continued move through the new high of $3,369–$3,370 would seal the bullish trend and leave the way open toward the psychological $3,400 level, potentially retesting the all-time high around $3,500 if support persists. FORECAST If positive sentiment prevails, fueled by a hoped-for September Fed rate cut and increased geopolitical tensions, gold might reattack the $3,370 resistance level. A breach above this region may trigger a retest of the $3,400 psychological level. Continued buying and positive risk-off sentiment might even propel the metal to the $3,434–$3,435 obstacle, and ultimately, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 is still in play if uncertainty in the world continues. Conversely, if the US Dollar continues to appreciate further based on more robust-than-expected economic data or a more aggressive Fed stance, gold could experience selling pressure. Support begins around the $3,340–$3,338 area, which lines up with the 100-period SMA. A firm break below this zone could set further losses in motion towards $3,320, and sustained losses might take the price towards the make-or-break $3,300 level. A violation of this mark could turn momentum in the bears’ direction.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Climbs Above $3,300 as Trade Tensions and Tariff Deadlines Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 31, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) has rallied above the $3,300 level after it reached a one-month low, fueled by fresh safe-haven demand with heightened global trade tensions on the back of the August 1 tariff deadline. The rally follows as the US Dollar weakens from recent highs and markets respond to President Trump’s tough tariff moves on nations such as India and Brazil. At the same time, uncertainty over trade deals, especially with China, and dovish hints from the Federal Reserve have left market sentiment weak. In spite of the Fed not raising rates, declining bond yields and robust institutional appetite, as captured in World Gold Council data, have also aided gold’s rebound. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets wait for final US tariff announcements, which can greatly influence risk sentiment and safe-haven investment into gold. • Investors watch the Core PCE Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims for new clues on inflation and the policy direction of the Fed. • XAU/USD continues to be stuck between $3,250 and $3,450, and a break above $3,350 or break below $3,250 will most likely determine the next trend. • Ongoing institutional buying, particularly through gold ETFs and central bank reserves, will be important in maintaining bullish momentum. Gold is trading around $3,306 after recovering from a one-month low, buoyed by fresh safe-haven demand as global trade tensions increase ahead of the August 1 deadline for US tariffs. President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies against India, Brazil, and other countries have spooked markets, while a softer US dollar and falling Treasury yields are also helping gold’s rebound. Investors are now waiting closely for major US inflation data and Fed remarks for additional guidance. Gold continues to be stuck in a range from $3,250 to $3,450, even with recent volatility, with institutional buying and central bank demand still offering underlying support. Gold is recovered above $3,300 as safe-haven demand rises and trade tensions escalate. Markets are waiting for August 1 tariff announcements and important US inflation numbers for additional guidance. The metal is stable between $3,250 and $3,450. • Gold recovers to $3,306 after falling to a one-month low of $3,268 due to renewed safe-haven demand. • US deadline for tariffs approaches August 1, with markets anticipating last-minute announcements from President Trump. • Aggressive trade actions are a 25% tariff on Indian imports and higher duties on Brazilian products. • Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% with no evident timeline for possible cuts as pressures build regarding inflation. • Bond yields fall, reducing the pressure on gold even as the Fed is taking a hawkish stance. •  Gold demand increased 3% YoY as ETF inflows and central bank buying drove H1 2025 performance. •  XAU/USD is range-stuck in between $3,250 and $3,450 with no clear momentum for breaking out. Gold is gaining increasing popularity with investors as tensions regarding the trade and geopolitics rise internationally. The focus has remained with the impending August 1 tariff deadline, with President Trump to reveal last-minute actions against nations such as India, Brazil, and others. This action has increased uncertainty in the market and restored demand for safe-haven investments in gold. Furthermore, the US has completed trade agreements with a number of countries, including South Korea, Japan, and the European Union, but talks with China are ongoing, contributing to the general sense of uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, macroeconomic numbers and central bank rhetoric are adding to the allure of gold. The Federal Reserve has recently left interest rates unchanged and signaled vigilance on future policy action, citing ongoing risks from inflation. Investors are also keeping a close eye on several imminent US economic releases, including the PCE Price Index and jobless claims, which are likely to affect sentiment. Gold’s function as an inflation and uncertainty hedge remains popular among retail and institutional investors alike, as evidenced by the robust flows into gold ETFs and ongoing central bank demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a clearly established sideways channel between $3,250 and $3,450, suggesting market indecision. The $3,250 level is solid support after having witnessed substantial buying interest in the past, and nearest resistance is at $3,350, which coincides with the 20-day Simple Moving Average as well as the middle Bollinger Band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, reflecting neutral to mildly bearish momentum, and the very low Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 11.28 indicates weak trend. Unless there’s a clear breakout above resistance or breakdown below support, gold is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. FORECAST If the trade tensions further intensify and the US Dollar drops on negative economic data, Gold may break above the resistance level of $3,350. A clear break above this region may set the stage for the higher zone around $3,450, and if the momentum picks up, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 may be possible. Increased gold ETF inflows, increasing geopolitical tensions, and dovish changes in Fed sentiment may also contribute to a sustained upside. On the flip side, if future US economic data makes the case for extended higher interest rates or trade-related threats dissipate through diplomatic agreements, Gold can lose safe-haven demand. Breaking below the $3,250 support will set off additional losses towards $3,150, which can serve as the next support cushion for buyers. Further, picking up Treasury yields and an uptick in the US Dollar will push gold prices down in the near future.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Faces Weekly Loss on Solid US Data and Fading Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 26, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is poised to record a weekly loss as firmer-than-anticipated U.S. economic data and better global trade sentiment reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Strong labor market data, such as a fourth straight decline in Initial Jobless Claims, combined with fading concerns over trade tensions—most notably gains in U.S.-EU talks—strengthened the U.S. Dollar and dampened investor demand for Gold. Even with declining U.S. Treasury yields, the metal fell to a weekly low of $3,325, with technicals pointing towards further downside risk if important support levels do not hold. The market is now focusing on the coming Federal Reserve decision and important macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The markets generally anticipate the Fed to leave interest rates steady; surprises or forward guidance could do much to influence Gold prices. •  Solid readings could further bolster the US Dollar and diminish Gold’s attractiveness, while softer data could provide some stimulus for the metal. •  A leading indicator of labor market fitness—ongoing strength might support a hawkish Fed profile, which would put pressure on Gold. • Safe-haven demand may remain subdued, pushing Gold lower, with progress towards a deal continuing to weigh and the potential for renewed buying interest after setbacks. Gold prices will close out the week lower as strong United States economic data and fresh trade optimism temper safe-haven demand. A solid rebound in the United States. Dollar, buoyed by stronger-than-anticipated labor market statistics and indications of advancement in US-EU trade negotiations, has kept the precious metal under pressure. Even as U.S. Treasury yields dipped, XAU/USD dipped to $3,325, its third day of losses in a row. Investors now await the next Federal Reserve policy announcement and a series of key economic reports that may influence Gold’s short-term course further. Gold suffers weekly losses due to robust U.S. data and trade optimism weakening safe-haven demand. XAU/USD weakened to $3,325, with players now waiting for the Fed’s next policy decision and major economic releases. • Gold (XAU/USD) slid to a weekly low of $3,325, weighed down by robust U.S. economic data and softening trade tensions. • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims reduced for the fourth week, indicating strength in the labor market and lowering safe-haven demand. • Durable Goods Orders fell by 9.6% in June, yet Core Orders continued to increase by 0.2%, showing the true resilience of underlying business investment. • Trade expectations had improved after the U.S.-Japan deal, and possibly there is more to come before August 1 on an EU agreement. • The U.S. Dollar rebounded in this report, making Gold pricier to foreigners despite falling Treasury yields. •  Technical support for Gold is around $3,320, where key SMAs converge and RSI goes bearish. •  Future releases such as Fed decision, Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and NFP will play a significant role in determining Gold’s next direction. Gold is set to log a weekly decline amid robust economic data from the United States and softening global trade tensions cutting the metal’s safe-haven demand. Supporting data, such as ongoing declines in Initial Jobless Claims, have continued to prop up expectations for the resilience of the U.S. labor market. At the same time, optimism surrounding trade has gained momentum after an agreement between the U.S. and Japan was finalized, and indications are that a deal with the European Union can be reached ahead of the August 1 deadline. These events have kept investor interest in Gold in check, which normally flourishes during times of insecurity and economic hardship. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The U.S. Dollar also picked up momentum this week, making it costlier for foreign buyers to purchase Gold and further testing its attractiveness. Although U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, the optimism in the U.S. economy and trade talks has adequately countered the typical lift Gold gains due to decreasing yields. Market participants are now focused intently on next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate determination and a string of high-impact economics releases, such as GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls, scheduled to influence market mood and possibly redefine the short-term prognosis for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) has registered three consecutive down days, below the $3,350 level and probing significant support at the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around $3,342 and $3,332, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has become bearish, reflecting waning bullishness in the near term. A sustained break below the $3,320 level would bring out deeper support at the 100-day SMA and the June 30 low of $3,238–$3,246. On the upside, a move above $3,400 would be necessary to regain positive momentum, with possible resistance at $3,438 and the June high of $3,452. FORECAST If future U.S. economic releases, like Q2 GDP or Core PCE, reflect tempering inflation or slowing growth, Gold may re-gain bullish momentum as investors flee to safe-haven assets. Any dovish Federal Reserve tone or any suggestion of future rate cuts can also sustain Gold prices by lessening the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Geopolitical tensions or stalling in completing trade deals might also fuel the safe-haven demand, which could send XAU/USD higher again above the $3,400 handle. On the other hand, if economic conditions continue to signal strength—particularly via strong Nonfarm Payrolls or resilient consumerism—anticipation of a sustained higher-rate cycle can mount, further pressuring Gold. Further strengthening in the U.S. Dollar and closing of trade agreements, notably with the EU, would certainly bear down on Gold demand. In such an event, XAU/USD may meander down, possibly testing critical support lines around $3,320 or even $3,250 in the near term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Steady Near $3,370 Due to Trade Jitters and Fed Uncertainty

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  • July 21, 2025
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Gold prices remain trading on a positive note near the $3,370 level due to safe-haven buying in the wake of increasing global trade tensions and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Investor anxiety regarding US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy, along with a modest pullback in the US Dollar, has reaffirmed the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold. Yet, uncertainty regarding a lack of clear economic data and fear of a potential Fed pause in reducing rates has left traders cautious, with gold remaining in a temporary range. A breakout over $3,366 would indicate additional gains, while support is seen around $3,322. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a break above the $3,365–$3,366 resistance zone to affirm a bullish breakout to $3,400 and beyond. • Prime support is around $3,325–$3,322, with further downside dangers in case the price falls below $3,283. • Clashing signals on the Fed’s rate-cutting horizon—particularly during July–September—will continue to be a pivotal driver of USD and gold price action. • Increased trade tension, particularly in the wake of Trump’s threatened tariffs on large economies, can persist in fuel and sustained safe-haven demand for gold. The prices of gold are staying firm at the $3,370 level, underpinned by both safe-haven demand and a softening US Dollar amidst general trade uncertainty and mixed Federal Reserve rate-cut messages. Investors closely watch President Trump’s intensifying tariff threats, which are raising market anxiety and increasing the allure of gold. Meanwhile, the Fed’s conservative approach—between inflation fears and economic concerns—remains a nervous reckoning for traders, which caps strong bullish positioning. With little in the way of significant US data releases to start the week, market players are waiting for the breakout from the prevailing trading range to validate the next direction. Gold fluctuates at $3,370 as uncertainty regarding trade tensions and Fed rate cuts fuels safe-haven demand. A break above $3,366 might spur new gains, while support lies at $3,322. • Gold price is placed with a bullish bias near the level of $3,370 amidst persistent trade tensions. • Safe-haven demand is fostered by uncertainty regarding Trump’s planned tariffs on large economies. • The US Dollar continues to weaken due to conflicting Fed rate-cut expectations. • Markets think the Fed might push back rate cuts until September even after dovish rhetoric. • Technical resistance is around $3,365–$3,366; a breakout might see $3,400 and $3,434. • Support lies at $3,325 and $3,283 with further losses possible below $3,247. • Absence of significant US economic data leaves eyes on global PMIs and trade news. Gold prices remain supported by global economic and political uncertainty, led by U.S. trade policy. Market participants are still wary as President Donald Trump’s suggested tariffs on several major economies—including a possible 15% to 20% tax on the European Union—spook investors about inflation and supply chain interruptions. These events have further strengthened gold’s safe-haven status as investors increasingly turn to the precious metal in a backdrop of increasing geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from this, the US Dollar began the week on a weak note, under pressure as there were conflicting views from Federal Reserve officials on when to cut interest rates. While there are some Fed members favoring a reduction in rates as soon as July, others are urging that the cut be done by September, confusing the market. With inflation fears growing because of increased import costs, the Fed’s next step is far from clear, again spurring investor demand for gold as insurance against possible policy errors and economic turmoil. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is at the higher end of a well-established short-term range, with resistance at the $3,365–$3,366 area. A decisive and persistent breakout higher here can serve as a catalyst for bulls’ momentum, taking prices up towards the psychological level of $3,400 and subsequent major resistance around $3,434–$3,435. At the lower end, near-term support lies at $3,325–$3,322, with a further decline below $3,283 potentially risk-justifying a more significant correction to the $3,248–$3,247 area, tilting near-term sentiment towards bears. FORECAST If gold is able to push past the $3,366 resistance level with significant buying volume, it would represent the beginning of a new bullish leg. The immediate next target would be the psychological $3,400 level, then the $3,434–$3,435 resistance area. This move would most likely be driven by continued weakness in the USD, dovish Fed rhetoric, or additional geopolitical risks, specifically those involving international trade policies. Strong and steady gains might draw in technical buying and propel gold towards new multi-week highs. Conversely, a failure to break above the current resistance may lead to a pullback towards the $3,325–$3,322 support area. A break below this level could see more downside towards $3,283, and in the event of intensified selling pressures, prices could fall towards the June low of around $3,247. A stronger US Dollar, hawkish Fed news, or the relaxation of global tensions may cap safe-haven demand and spell a bearish change in gold’s near-term outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Firm as Safe-Haven Demand Grows with Trade Tensions and Dollar Pullback

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  • July 16, 2025
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Gold price stays firm at the $3,340 level as fresh safe-haven demand is building up on increasing trade tensions and a declining risk tone in the global markets. Downbeat equity sentiment fueled by fears over US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy and ongoing inflationary pressures is fostering the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal. At the same time, a small retracement in the US Dollar from recent highs is also supportive, although anticipation of sustained higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve might temper meaningful upside. While markets wait for decisive US Producer Price Index data as well as additional comments from the Fed, gold traders are cautiously optimistic. KEY LOOKOUTS • US Producer Price Index data, when released, will likely shape inflation expectations and Fed rate projections, having a direct bearing on gold prices. • Comments from FOMC members, particularly regarding the timing of rate cuts as well as inflation risks, will be closely monitored for any monetary policy guidance. • Persistent trade tensions, such as Trump’s threatened pharmaceutical and copper tariffs, sustain safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold is confronted with instant resistance at $3,342–$3,343 and has to break above this level to challenge higher levels of $3,365 and even the $3,400 level. Gold price remains steady around the $3,340 level as safe-haven interest comes back to the metal with increasing global uncertainties and a modest pullback in the US Dollar. Market mood remains risk-averse due to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff declarations, which have caused concerns for possible inflation hikes and economic repercussions. In the meantime, hopes for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a more extended period of time remain a headwind for the precious metal. With the next US Producer Price Index figures and additional Fed statements looming in the background, investors are exercising caution, balancing geopolitical threats against monetary policy cues. Gold price stabilizes at $3,340 as safe-haven demand is resurgent due to trade tensions and a less positive risk tone. A declining US Dollar provides support, but Fed rate hike prospects could contain further gains. Traders now look for US PPI data and Fed commentary for new direction. • Gold price stabilizes at $3,340, underpinned by safe-haven buying in the face of global risk aversion. • Trade tensions rise as Trump promises new tariffs, fueling inflation and economic hardship concerns. • US Dollar pulls back from multi-week highs, providing modest aid to gold. • Fed likely to hold rates higher for longer, capping meaningful upside for non-yielding metal. • US CPI increased 0.3% in June, spurring concerns over surging inflation from trade policies. • Focus shifts to US PPI and future Fed speeches for leads on monetary policy direction. • Technical resistance at $3,342–$3,343, stronger resistance around $3,365 and $3,400. Gold maintains investor attraction as a safe-haven asset in a heightened global economic uncertainty environment. Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump about imposing sharp tariffs on drug and copper imports fueled renewed fears of inflation triggered by trade and dampened economic growth. The concerns have prompted a wary market sentiment, with stocks under pressure and demand increasing for historically safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors grow nncreasingly worried about the long-term effects these trade policies might have, particularly when inflationary pressures begin to build up. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve continues to hold firm on keeping higher interest rates in place to bring inflation under control. Comments from Fed officials such as Susan Collins and Lorie Logan indicate that excessive easing could damage the economy’s momentum for the near future. The combination of ongoing inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy expectations, and international trade tensions has provided a backdrop under which gold is a strategic hedge. As investors track closely the release of economic data and central bank speeches, gold continues to be an important gauge of market sentiment and risk aversion. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price is displaying resilience just below $3,340, trading around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Although the metal has halted its pullback from a three-week peak, momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD remain even-keel, providing no clear indication of a reversal being bullish. A persistent move over the near-term resistance at $3,342–$3,343 can bring out the way to the $3,365–$3,366 region, with additional buying forcing the price nearer to the psychological $3,400 level. On the flip side, any dip below $3,320 may initiate new selling pressure, opening up support at $3,300 and $3,282. FORECAST Should gold be able to maintain the pressure over the $3,342–$3,343 resistance level, it could set the stage for a retest of the $3,365–$3,366 barrier in the near future. A firm break over this point would tend to draw further bullish attention, driving prices toward the psychologically significant $3,400 figure. Ongoing safe-haven buying interest, a correction in the US Dollar, or dovish statements from Federal Reserve representatives could further encourage this rallying action. Conversely, a failure to remain above the $3,320 support may spark a more pronounced corrective fall. In that case, gold could slide towards the critical $3,300 support region, and a breakdown below this level may expose the $3,283–$3,282 level, which was a recent one-week low. A firmer US Dollar, hawkish Fed, or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could sour the mood and hasten the downside journey to the July swing low near the $3,248–$3,247 range.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stands Firm with Trade Uncertainty and Divided Fed Cues

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  • July 10, 2025
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Gold prices maintain a firm bias for the second day running on the back of safe-haven demand due to rising trade tensions and a weakened US Dollar. Even as risk aversion is heightened by uncertainty about President Trump’s recent tariff policies, divided cues from the Federal Reserve on further rate cuts leave investors hesitant. The release of the FOMC minutes showed limited immediate support for a rate cut, capping gold’s upside despite falling US bond yields. As markets await US jobless claims data and further comments from Fed officials, gold remains range-bound near the $3,320 mark, with key resistance and support levels in focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key short-term trigger that could influence Fed rate cut expectations and Gold’s direction. • Any dovish or hawkish language would affect market sentiment surrounding interest rates and the USD. • Ongoing USD weakness and falling Treasury yields might be bullish for gold prices. • Reactions to Trump’s fresh tariffs and any retaliation will be a primary driver of safe-haven flows. Gold prices are holding up near $3,320 as investors grapple with a blend of global trade tensions and ambiguous Fed policy indications. President Trump’s most recent tariff announcements, such as a 50% tariff on copper imports, have further fueled market anxiety, pushing safe-haven flows into gold. The Fed’s meeting minutes meanwhile showed the policymakers were divided in their stance on rate cuts this month, although most policymakers continue to foresee easing later this year. This volatility, complemented by declining US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar, still provides underlying support to the non-yielding metal despite upside being capped by better risk sentiment in the equities. Gold prices are supported by increasing trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar, trading firmly around $3,320. Yet, dovish Fed signals and firmer equities are capping further gains. US jobless claims and Fed commentary are now awaited for direction. • Gold trades at $3,320 with a small intraday gain for the second consecutive day. • Trade tensions rise following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and warning of no exemptions or extensions. • Mixed opinions about rate cuts in FOMC minutes, with minimal near-term support but anticipation of easing towards year-end. • US Dollar again weakens for the second straight day, supporting Gold’s safe-haven status. • US bond yields fall, following the strong 10-year Treasury auction, underpinning non-yielding assets such as Gold. • Technical resistance at $3,335 and $3,360; breaking through could take Gold up to the $3,400 level. •  Key data ahead includes US Weekly Jobless Claims and Fed speeches, which could drive short-term market direction. Gold continues under the spotlight as international financial markets respond to heightened trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The latest action from US President Donald Trump to introduce new tariffs on various trading partners, including a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, has created uncertainty among investors. This geopolitical tension has rekindled demand for classic safe-haven assets such as gold, with market players seeking stability in the face of growing policy uncertainty and the possibility of retaliation from impacted countries. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes reflect intramural discord, as some policymakers are not keen to reduce interest rates in the near future. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement that rate reductions might be necessary later in the year if inflation remains benign and trade tensions suppress economic growth. These themes, together with a deteriorating US Dollar and risk-averse sentiment, continue to provide a bullish environment for gold in the larger market context. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains at the $3,320 level with a marginal bullish bias. Initial resistance is at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3,335, followed by a stronger zone of supply between $3,358 and $3,360. A forceful breakout above this area might initiate more bullish pressure, perhaps driving prices towards the $3,400 psychological mark. To the downside, a break below the support at $3,300 might reveal the $3,283–3,282 area, with additional losses risking a descent towards the monthly low at $3,248–3,247. Generally, traders need to look out for a definitive breakout or breakdown from these decisive technical levels for affirmation of the next move. FORECAST If geopolitical tension continues to spike and the US Dollar stays pressured, gold prices may witness fresh buying interest. A breakout above the $3,335 resistance level would set the stage for a move towards the $3,358–3,360 supply zone. Sizing through this barrier may initiate a short-covering rally, which has the potential to drive prices towards the $3,400 psychological level in the near future, provided that forward US economic data or Fed rhetoric aids the rate-cutting case. On the other hand, if the US is not able to negotiate trade deals by the August 1 tariff deadline, worldwide trade tensions could rise aggressively, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar. Also, if near-term UK economic releases are disappointing or worry over rising national debt and geopolitical tensions picks up pace, the GBP could be underpinned. A breakdown below the 1.3500 psychological support level may result in additional declines towards the next major point at 1.3400.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls Below $3,370 as US Airstrikes on Iran Increase Geopolitical Uncertainty and Inflation Concern

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  • June 23, 2025
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Gold prices slipped on Monday even as geopolitical risk rose after coordinated US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. The military attack, code-named “Operation Midnight Hammer,” hit major targets and evoked strong world reactions, including Iranian warnings to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital world oil transit route. While geopolitical volatility usually supports safe-haven assets such as Gold, prices continue to be capped below the $3,400 level due to strengthening US Dollar and investor prudence in the face of key monetary policy testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. KEY LOOKOUTS • Iran’s possible decision to close the critical oil chokepoint can destabilize global energy supply and increase risks to inflation. • Markets look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony for hints regarding future interest rate policy in the face of inflation fears. • XAU/USD refuses to overcome the $3,400 psychological level despite increased geopolitical tensions. • Any Iranian retaliatory measures or escalation of conflict in the region might further increase safe-haven demand for Gold. Gold prices are in a tight range beneath $3,370 as geopolitical tensions rise after the US military attacks on Iran’s nuclear complex. Although in the generally favorable setup for safe-havens, the precious metal can’t make headway owing to the stronger US Dollar and market risk aversion ahead of major economic events. Iran’s warning to shut the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to inflationary pressures by driving Oil prices up, potentially making global monetary policy choices more difficult. Traders are watching events in the Middle East closely and Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before Congress for additional market guidance. Gold is holding below $3,370 even amid escalating geopolitical tensions following US attacks on Iran. Investor attention now turns to the Strait of Hormuz closure threat and Fed Chair Powell’s next policy testimony. • Gold is trading lower below $3,370 as tensions between US and Iran escalate following US coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. • Operation Midnight Hammer involved major facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan and received global condemnation and threats of retaliatory strikes. • Iran threatens to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil supply channel, with energy disruption and inflation concerns. • Oil prices recover, backing safe-haven buying but not sufficiently to propel Gold beyond the $3,400 barrier. • US Dollar strengthens, limiting Gold’s rally even amidst geopolitical tensions and risk aversion. •  Investors watch for cues on future interest rate policy from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony as inflation risks escalate. • Gold’s major technical levels are resistance at $3,400 and support at $3,342, with a possible downside to $3,245 in case support is broken. Middle East tensions escalated at the weekend after the United States mounted a coordinated attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising global concerns about regional stability and energy security. The operation, which was confirmed by President Trump and code-named “Operation Midnight Hammer,” was aimed at key Iranian nuclear facilities, provoking withering criticism from world powers and raising the threat of retaliation from Iran. Iran’s parliament has voted to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping route for almost 20% of the world’s oil supply—ratcheting up the possibility of a wider geopolitical and economic crisis. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Global markets are on tenterhooks as diplomatic fallout grows, with responses coming from the United Nations, China, and regional players. Though Iran has termed the strikes a sovereignty breach, its response is unclear, and investors closely follow the events. The heightened geopolitical tension has surged demand for safe-haven assets such as Gold, and inflation threats increase with the potential supply disruption in oil. Global policymakers, meanwhile face the mounting pressure to control inflation, now entwined with geopolitical tensions in the emerging situation. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold XAU/USD is stuck below the strong psychological and structural barrier of $3,400. Until now, immediate support comes at $3,342, which also represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April run. A break below this level can expose more downside to $3,321 (50-day SMA) and $3,245 (38.2% Fibonacci). A breakout above $3,400 on the upside can initiate fresh bullish momentum, aiming for the June high of $3,452 and even the all-time high around $3,500. Momentum indicators imply a neutral-to-caveat position as markets wait for clearer guidance. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions keep on rising—especially if Iran proceeds with its threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—Gold may witness fresh buying pressure as investors pour into safe-haven assets. A spike in Oil prices because of supply shocks could also fuel inflationary concerns, and this may keep central banks from cutting rates, boosting Gold’s popularity. At such a time, a move above the $3,400 level of resistance would pave the way for an advance to the June high of $3,452 and even test the record high at about $3,500. On the flip side, if tensions start to ease through diplomatic means or Iran holds back on retaliatory moves, market anxieties could ease, cutting down on the need for safe-haven assets such as Gold. A stronger US Dollar, fueled by hawkish Fed rhetoric or positive economic data, may also pressure Gold prices. In such a scenario, a fall below the $3,342 level of support could see prices head lower towards $3,321 and even $3,245, depending on whether inflation worries ebb and rate-cut speculation gains ground.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Resilient Amid Middle East Unrest and Fed Rate Cut Expectations; Rises Above $3,400

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  • June 13, 2025
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Gold prices are hanging in there, trading above the $3,400 level as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations drive safe-haven demand. Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear complex has increased concerns about a wider conflict in the region, leading investors to look for refuge in gold. At the same time, subdued U.S. inflation readings underpins the probability of another round of Fed easing in 2025, complementing gold’s positive bias. Nevertheless, a U.S. Dollar rebound censors further gains, capping the metal’s upside for now. Market participants still keep a close eye on global events, and technical indicators are still pointing towards a positive short-term picture for gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increased geopolitical tensions after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran can continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. • Deteriorating inflation data makes Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 more likely, adding further support for gold prices. • The recent U.S. Dollar rebound may limit gold’s upside strength, so currency fluctuations become a key watch item. • The principal support is at $3,400, and a move above the $3,500 level may indicate a new bullish trend towards new historic highs. Prices of gold are well-backed following the heightening Middle East tensions and anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts that drive demand for safe-haven assets among investors. Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities last week have increased concerns about an escalating broader regional war, which has led to a global risk-off sentiment expressed through sagging equity markets. Simultaneously, softer U.S. inflation data strengthens the case for monetary easing in 2025, which further supports non-yielding gold. However, the metal’s gains are somewhat limited by a recovering U.S. Dollar, which rebounded from multi-year lows. Overall, gold continues to trade above the $3,400 level, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. Gold prices remain strong at above $3,400 as tensions in the Middle East rise and expectations of Fed rate cuts increase. Rebounding U.S. Dollar, however, restricts further upside. Investors remain fearful as geopolitical tensions and economic statistics influence market sentiment. • Gold remains at $3,400, slightly pulling back from a near two-month high on sustained geopolitical tensions. • Israel’s missile strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites fuel Middle East conflict, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. • Iran threatens sharp retaliation, feeding fears of a broader regional war that would further raise gold prices. • US inflation data is still sluggish, fueling anticipation for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. • US Dollar reverses at multi-year lows, limiting upside for gold even with robust safe-haven flows. • Market technicals are still positive, with gold moving in an inclined channel and targeting a potential advance towards $3,500. • Support levels to watch are around $3,400 and $3,385, while a breakout above $3,500 can initiate new bullish momentum. Gold prices are well-sustained as increasing geopolitical tensions continue to fuel safe-haven buying. The Middle East crisis worsened dramatically following Israel’s pre-emptive bombing of Iran’s nuclear installations, heightening concerns of an extended regional war. Iran promised tough retaliation, increasing world uncertainty and encouraging investors to flee to the safety of such assets as gold. The war has already set off large-scale risk aversion, evident in global equity market drops, as worries increase over the prospects of a wider, longer war. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Economic conditions, besides geopolitical, are also adding to the attraction of gold. Recent inflation figures for the U.S. have displayed a moderate rise, supporting market sentiment that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates in 2025. Reduced borrowing costs tend to favor non-yielding assets such as gold, making them more attractive to investors. While this, meanwhile, still poses another source of uncertainty in the world’s economic prospects, supporting safe-haven inflows into gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still within a clean upward-sloping channel, which confirms a strong short-term bull trend. The price still holds above the $3,400 level, with daily chart oscillators still in bullish positions, which attests to the optimistic outlook. A sustained break through the psychological $3,500 level, which coincides with the top of the rising channel, would serve as a new catalyst for additional bull pressure. On the other hand, any potential pullbacks are likely to be supported around $3,400, while a breach below $3,385 would target the next support area around $3,355-$3,330. FORECAST If Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue to rise and the Federal Reserve remains dovish, gold prices could be well-supported in the short term. Further breaks above the $3,500 psychological level could be a catalyst for additional gains, with the potential to drive the price to new all-time highs. Ongoing safe-haven flows, along with decelerating inflation and weakening economic data, would tend to spur additional bullish momentum for gold. On the negative side, if diplomacy lowers tensions in the Middle East or if better-than-expected US economic data lowers the odds for Fed interest rate cuts, gold may come under selling pressure. A sustained break below the $3,400 support level may trigger a more substantial correction, with the next significant support at $3,385. More losses could test the $3,355 to $3,330 area, potentially tilting the short-term picture in favor of bearish traders.

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