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Commodities Gold

Gold prices surged past $2,900: Trump’s tariffs and global uncertainty fuel safe-haven demand

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  • February 11, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its bullish momentum, breaching the $2,900 mark to hit a fresh all-time high amidst growing safe-haven demand. The surge is driven by US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on commodities, escalating global trade war concerns, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Other positives include the prospect of increasing inflation with the pro-protectionist policies of President Trump, thus making gold more attractive as an economic uncertainty hedge. A weak US Dollar bounce and an overbought market have resulted in some intraday profit-taking before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. Even though the precious metal experienced some minor pullbacks, the bigger picture is bullish, and strong support is at key technical levels above $2,800, which supports additional upside. KEY LOOKOUTS • Global uncertainty rises with threats of US retaliation and reciprocal tariffs on commodities • Increasing skirmishes, in the Middle East for one, only heighten fears in markets that drive even greater demand for gold as an inflation hedge against volatility • Fed rate policy and future course under inflation concern and a surprising strong labor market. • Despite minor pullbacks, gold’s strong support above $2,800 and bullish trends suggest further upside potential in the coming sessions. Gold’s bullish momentum remains intact as it continues to trade above the $2,900 mark, driven by escalating trade war fears following Trump’s new tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors are turning to the safe-haven metal amid uncertainties surrounding global economic policies and Middle East conflicts. A stronger US Dollar and profit-taking have caused slight pullbacks, but gold’s strong technical support near $2,800 suggests limited downside risks. The market now awaits Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate stance and influence gold’s next move. Gold price continues to hold strong above $2,900 on the back of Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which increase safe-haven demand. Even minor pullbacks are capped by strong support near $2,800. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony may shape gold’s next move. • Gold price surges to a record high as safe-haven demand increases. • New US tariffs on commodities raise the specter of a global trade war, making gold more attractive. • Uncertainties, especially in the Middle East, push investors towards gold as a hedge. • Expectations of inflation because of Trump’s protectionist stance might influence the rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. • A modest recovery in the USD results in some profit-taking in the prices of gold. • Gold is well-supported above $2,800 and is limited in downside risks despite minor corrections. • Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which may affect the future course of gold. Gold’s price keeps on its bullish trend, going past the $2,900 mark and reaching a new all-time high as investors seek safety amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on commodities, along with his plans for reciprocal duties on other countries, have fueled fears of a global trade war, significantly boosting demand for gold. Furthermore, increased political tensions, especially in the Middle East, have also contributed to gold’s safe-haven status. However, some intraday profit-taking occurred due to a minor US Dollar recovery. Yet, the bullish sentiment remains firm, with technical support levels around $2,800 capping the downside. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Looking ahead, market participants are watching the Federal Reserve’s policy stance very closely as Trump’s protectionist policies are likely to drive inflation higher, and this might have an impact on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. A hawkish stance from the central bank would strengthen the US Dollar and cap gold’s gains, while a dovish approach would further support the yellow metal’s rally. Investors are also waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, which may give a clue about the Fed’s view on inflation and interest rates. While short-term fluctuations are possible, the broader technical setup suggests that gold is still on an uptrend, and strong demand is likely to keep prices elevated in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a strong uptrend, comfortably above the $2,900 level, and with key support around the $2,800 level. Any pullback towards $2,886-$2,882 should attract fresh buying interest, which will reinforce the bullish outlook. A decisive break below this zone may push prices towards the $2,855-$2,852 region, but downside risks are limited because of strong demand. On the flip side, yesterday’s resistance came in near $2,943-$2,950; a next leg higher probably targets the $3,000 mark, but it is reflected in the daily chart – the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI). The next leg higher might mean some consolidation or short-term correction. Traders will look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the US Dollar’s movement for further directional cues. FORECAST The medium-term bullishness in gold will likely continue for the near term, with price action testing new higher resistance levels. If this buying pressure remains strong, then the next target to the upside would be in the $2,943-$2,950 area, with the psychological $3,000 barrier being a major obstacle before breaking above to start a new rally and take the long-term uptrend much further. Geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and safe-haven demand will continue to fuel gold prices. The positive view on the yellow metal will continue. But, the price may see some pullbacks because of profit-taking and the US Dollar’s strengthening. If the price falls below $2,900, the initial support is seen around $2,886-$2,882, and the downside risks will extend toward the $2,855-$2,852 zone. Another more aggressive push in correction would push prices closer to the $2,834 level, but that level is expected to attract buyers, thus limiting further declines. Market sentiment will be highly driven by the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell’s testimony as any hints of a prolonged rise in higher interest rates would force short-term downward pressure on gold.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Soar to New All-Time Highs as Trade War Jitters, Inflation Loom

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  • February 10, 2025
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Prices of gold (XAU/USD) have maintained their bull run and even reached new all-time highs near the $2,896-$2,897 level as haven demand increases amidst heightened trade war jitters and inflationary pressure. US President Donald Trump declared new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, in addition to threatened retaliatory measures, which raised uncertainty and have prompted investors to rush to the safe haven. Meanwhile, upbeat US jobs data and persistent inflation worries are expected to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, providing further support to gold prices. Despite modest US Dollar strength and overbought technical conditions, the fundamental backdrop suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and key inflation data for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum escalate US-China tensions, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold amid economic uncertainty. • Rising inflation fears, fueled by protectionist policies, strengthen gold’s appeal as a hedge against price increases despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. • The Fed’s decision on interest rates remains key, as resilient labor market data and inflation trends could impact gold’s bullish momentum. • Gold faces resistance near $2,900, while overbought RSI signals possible consolidation; key support levels to watch are $2,855 and $2,834. Gold prices continue to rally amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Investors seek refuge in the safe-haven metal as economic uncertainty looms, while inflationary pressures further boost gold’s appeal. Despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, resilient US labor market data and persistent inflation could limit room for further rate cuts, supporting gold’s bullish outlook. However, technical indicators signal overbought conditions, suggesting potential consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level, with key support at $2,855 and $2,834 to watch for potential pullbacks. Gold prices surge to record highs amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. While the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance supports gold, overbought technical conditions hint at possible consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level. • XAU/USD reaches a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region amid strong safe-haven demand. • Trump’s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports escalate US-China tensions, boosting gold’s appeal. • Protectionist policies may reactivate inflation, reinforcing the reasons to hold gold as a hedge against rising prices. • Strong labor market and inflationary worries might prevent the Fed from reducing interest rates, further supporting gold’s bullish outlook. • A slight USD advance might cap the rally in gold, but the fundamental setup is supportive. • Gold is resisted around the $2,900 area, with overbought RSI conditions pointing to consolidation. • Immediate support lies at $2,855 and $2,834, with a further decline targeting the $2,815-$2,800 range. Gold prices continue their upward trajectory, reaching a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region as investors seek refuge in the safe-haven asset amid rising economic uncertainty. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has intensified fears of a trade war, prompting increased demand for gold. Additionally, concerns over inflationary pressures due to protectionist policies have further strengthened gold’s status as a hedge against rising prices. Meanwhile, the US labor market remains resilient, with a lower-than-expected unemployment rate, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy. Despite modest US Dollar strength, gold maintains its bullish momentum, signaling strong investor confidence in the metal. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a potential short-term consolidation or pullback. The key resistance level stands at $2,900, and a sustained break above this could push prices toward $2,920-$2,930. On the downside, initial support lies at $2,855-$2,854, with stronger buying interest expected around $2,834. If bearish pressure intensifies, the next critical support zone is near $2,815-$2,800. Moving averages indicate continued strength, reinforcing the long-term uptrend, while traders closely watch upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve signals for further price direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate the possibility of short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before further gains. The immediate resistance lies at the psychological $2,900 level, and a sustained breakout above this could push prices toward the $2,920-$2,930 range. On the downside, initial support is seen at $2,855-$2,854, with further key levels at $2,834 and $2,815. If gold breaks below these levels, a deeper retracement toward the $2,800 mark could follow. Moving averages continue to move up, specifically 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Traders would watch the short-term momentum indicators and price action for a breakout confirmation in either direction, given that short-term direction could shift based on upcoming US inflation numbers and signals coming from the Fed. FORECAST The current trend in the gold prices continues to remain uptrended; safe haven, as well as inflation, would continue to sustain the uptrend. The bullish momentum suggests that gold could break above the psychological $2,900 mark, with the next potential target around $2,920-$2,930. If trade tensions between the US and China escalate further or inflation fears intensify, gold may see additional upside, attracting more investors seeking a hedge against economic instability. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates will also play a crucial role in sustaining the bullish momentum. Should the Fed signal a more dovish approach due to persistent economic risks, gold could gain further, testing new record highs in the coming weeks. Despite gold’s strong rally, short-term pullbacks remain a possibility due to overbought technical conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is approaching an overextended zone, suggesting the potential for a temporary correction. If profit-taking sets in, initial support is expected near the $2,855-$2,854 region, followed by stronger support at $2,834. A deeper retracement could bring the price down to $2,815 or even the $2,800 psychological level, where fresh buying interest

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Targets Fresh Highs Amid Strong Bullish Momentum

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  • February 10, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) continues its bullish momentum, trading near $32.00 per troy ounce, supported by strong technical indicators. The metal remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing its short-term uptrend. With the RSI above 50 and the price advancing within an ascending channel, silver could retest its three-month high of $32.65, with a potential breakout targeting the psychological level of $33.00. Key support levels are found at $31.71, $31.44, and $31.10, with a break below these potentially shifting the trend bearish toward December’s low of $28.74. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver faces a key resistance level at its three-month high of $32.65; a breakout could drive prices toward the psychological barrier of $33.00. • The nine-day EMA at $31.71 acts as immediate support; a breach below this level could weaken bullish momentum and trigger further declines. • The 14-day RSI remains above 50, signaling continued bullish strength; sustained momentum could reinforce the uptrend and push silver toward new highs. • The price of silver trades in an ascending channel and thus is considered very bullish. To continue with further gains, the price has to hold above the lower boundary of $31.10. Silver (XAG/USD) continues with the bullish sentiment. It has traded within the ascending channel and above the crucial support levels. At present, the price has been facing crucial resistance at $32.65, and the break above that can take the price towards the psychological level of $33.00. The nine-day EMA at $31.71 serves as immediate support, while the 14-day EMA at $31.44 and the channel’s lower boundary at $31.10 provide additional safety nets for bulls. With the RSI above 50, market sentiment remains positive, reinforcing the likelihood of further gains unless silver breaks below critical support zones, which could shift momentum bearish toward $28.74. Silver (XAG/USD) continues its bullish trend, facing key resistance at $32.65, with a breakout potentially driving prices toward $33.00. Strong support at $31.71 and the RSI above 50 reinforce the uptrend, while a break below $31.10 could weaken momentum. • Silver faces a crucial resistance at its three-month high; a breakout could push prices toward the psychological level of $33.00. • The nine-day EMA acts as strong support; a break below this could weaken the bullish momentum. • Silver trades within an ascending channel, indicating a strong uptrend unless the lower boundary at $31.10 is breached. • The 14-day RSI remains above 50, signaling continued bullish strength and supporting further upside potential. • Silver remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing a strong bullish outlook. • A break below key support levels ($31.71, $31.44, and $31.10) could expose silver to further downside, potentially testing $28.74. • If silver breaks above $32.65, it could aim for the next key psychological resistance at $33.00, further strengthening the bullish outlook. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to trade within a strong bullish trend, hovering near $32.00 while finding support at key moving averages. The metal stays above the nine-day EMA at $31.71 and the 14-day EMA at $31.44, so short-term momentum is strong. With the RSI above 50, silver is still on a positive track, and a breakout above the critical resistance level of $32.65 may take prices up to the psychological barrier of $33.00. The ascending channel formation continues to support the ongoing uptrend, keeping buyers in control as long as the lower boundary at $31.10 holds. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But if silver cannot hold the bullish momentum, a breakdown below $31.71 may push the price further down and open it to deeper retracements. A break of the 14-day EMA at $31.44 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $31.10 may change the market sentiment and push the price down to December’s low of $28.74. Traders should closely watch resistance at $32.65 and key support levels to gauge the next directional move in silver prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) exhibits strong bullish momentum on the daily chart, trading within an ascending channel while holding above key moving averages. The nine-day EMA at $31.71 and the 14-day EMA at $31.44 act as crucial support levels, sustaining the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating sustained bullishness and leaving room for a further move upwards. The initial resistance level to watch is the three-month high at $32.65. A break above this level might send prices upwards to $33.00. A break below $31.10, which is the lower boundary of the ascending channel, might weaken momentum and leave silver vulnerable to a drop to the level of $28.74. FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) continues to show strong bullish momentum, with technical indicators supporting further gains. The price remains above key moving averages, with the nine-day EMA at $31.71 and the 14-day EMA at $31.44 acting as strong support levels. If silver sustains its current uptrend, it could retest its three-month high of $32.65, a critical resistance level. A breakout above this could push the price toward the psychological mark of $33.00, further strengthening bullish sentiment. The RSI staying above 50 and the price moving within an ascending channel indicate that buyers remain in control, increasing the likelihood of continued upward movement. Despite the bullish outlook, silver faces potential downside risks if key support levels fail to hold. A break below the nine-day EMA at $31.71 could indicate weakening momentum, with the next critical support at the 14-day EMA of $31.44. If the price falls below the ascending channel’s lower boundary at $31.10, bearish pressure could accelerate, exposing silver to further losses. In a worst-case scenario, a sharp decline could push XAG/USD toward its five-month low of $28.74, recorded in December. Traders should closely monitor support levels and key technical indicators to assess potential trend reversals.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Struggles Amid Mixed Signals: Key Levels to Watch Below $2,750

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  • January 28, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade in a range below the $2,750 level, as a mix of factors weighs on the yellow metal, including rebounding US bond yields, revived USD demand, and inflationary concerns triggered by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff threats. While these factors weigh on the yellow metal, worries about economic fallout and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts provide support. Traders are careful ahead of the FOMC meeting and US economic data, with immediate resistance near $2,755-2,757 and key support around $2,725-2,750. A breakout above $2,800 could indicate a fresh bullish trend, while further declines may target key Fibonacci levels below $2,705. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold faces strong resistance near $2,757, with a potential breakout above $2,800 needed to confirm a bullish continuation. Watch for momentum around these levels. • Supportive levels range from $2,725 to $2,705. If this support breaks, a bigger decline will occur towards the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement. • Gold’s prices are vulnerable in the short term because of the possible effects on US bond yields and USD as a result of inflation worries raised by the tariff threats made by Trump on the US. • A Federal Reserve decision will dictate market behavior and guide further USD strength moves and potentially a better idea for the future movement of gold. Gold prices are hovering in a tight range below $2,750 as mixed cues rule the market sentiment. The revival of US bond yields, mainly due to inflationary concerns over President Trump’s tariff threats, continues to support the US Dollar while weighing on the precious metal. However, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over potential economic fallout from protectionist policies give gold prices a floor. Traders are observing key resistance at $2,755-$2,757 and a support at $2,725-$2,705 levels while the upcoming FOMC meeting and US economic data are to be considered the determinants for the next move. A breakout above $2,800 could signal renewed bullish momentum while the break below the key support would open doors for further decline. Gold prices still trade below $2,750 as US bond yields rise on inflationary fears from the tariffs threats. Gold traders are eyeing the FOMC for clearer direction. • Gold is consolidating at the lows around $2,750 and can’t capitalize on the recent bounce from multi-day lows. • US bond yields pick up on the inflationary concerns from President Trump’s trade tariffs, which pushes the USD and weighs on gold. • Bottom support in between $2,725-$2,705, while targets are made on the downside 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels. • Markets see immediate resistance near $2,755-$2,757 with a breach above $2,800 likely to initiate positive momentum. • Market expectations of two consecutive 25 bps Fed rate cuts this year would restrict US bond yields and maintain gold prices. • All eyes on the US Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Confidence Index for the upcoming short-term moves of gold. • This monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would go a long way in shaping the dynamics in the USD and further directional move for gold. Prices in gold (XAU/USD) continue to consolidate below $2,750. There are clearly mixed sentiments at play that prevent prices from rallying higher. Reviving the US bond yields through threats from President Trump’s trade tariffs on inflation has resurged the USD and pushed back on gold. However, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and apprehensions over the economic implications of protectionist policies are supporting the yellow metal. The immediate resistance levels are seen around $2,755-$2,757, and a breakout above $2,800 would be required to confirm a fresh bullish trend. On the downside, key support levels are pegged at $2,725-$2,705, which, if breached, could signal a deeper correction toward critical Fibonacci retracement levels. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled to provide further clarity on US monetary policy and implications for the USD. US economic data, such as Durable Goods Orders and the Consumer Confidence Index, could offer short-term direction for gold. The metal continues to hold up well against mixed market signals above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the December-January rally. With key data and events on the horizon, the next move in the gold market will be heavily influenced by how these impacts the bond yields, the US Dollar, and market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) continues to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally from above. The break above the $2,720-$2,725 resistance zone has now flipped this zone into a key support level, but for now, it cushions price to further decline. Oscillators on the daily charts have remained in positive territory, bolstering the upside move of the stock. Resistance comes at the immediately higher price levels of $2,755-$2,757, then the swing high at $2,772-$2,773 and the all-time peak near $2,790. A break above $2,800 would be sustained and confirm the continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, a break below $2,725 may lead to a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,705 and potentially deeper corrections. FORECAST Gold prices will continue to head higher if resistance levels are broken. A break above the $2,755-$2,757 area might push prices up toward the $2,772-$2,773 area. But a drive past that point may be what gets to the all-time high around $2,790. If buyers continue their momentum, breaking the psychologically sensitive $2,800 mark may help solidify a continued continuation of the trend upward due to concerns of inflation in the markets and dovish policies by the Federal Reserve. Positive momentum indicators, along with maintaining above retracement levels at major support points, add fuel to this view. Failure at near $2,725-$2,705 might deepen corrections into gold, breaking through those might slide towards a further 38.2% retracement level, close to the point of $2,705 with selling, even further to potentially breach the zone toward the 50% retracement point about $2,684. A stronger US Dollar and rising US bond yields, driven by hawkish

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Commodities Gold

XAU/USD: Gold Price Gains Momentum as Rate Cut Bets Intensify

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  • January 22, 2025
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Gold prices remain firm near multi-month highs, driven by safe-haven demand amid global trade uncertainties and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, coupled with fears of a fresh trade war, has boosted the appeal of the yellow metal. While a modest recovery in the US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields pose minor headwinds, the overall bullish sentiment persists. Technically, a breakout above key resistance levels suggests further upside potential, with any corrective pullback likely viewed as a buying opportunity. The outlook remains favorable for gold, with bullish traders eyeing a potential challenge to the all-time high. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trade war fears and geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive investors towards gold, solidifying its status as a safe-haven asset amid global market volatility. • Expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed this year boost gold’s appeal, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. • A break above $2,750 resistance may further intensify the bullishness of the market, and crucial support is seen near $2,720 and $2,690. • The Small bull recovery in the US Dollar may cap gold’s gains. Generally, dollar volatility is going to be a key watch for short-term direction. The gold market continues to hold near multi-month highs, supported by a global flight to safety amidst rising geopolitical concerns and a potential trade war. The potential for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year has also boosted the demand for gold, as non-yielding assets are favored under lower interest rates. A modest recovery in the US dollar and rebounding Treasury yields pose temporary headwinds, but overall sentiment remains bullish. Technically, a decisive breakout above the $2,750 resistance could pave the way for further gains, while support levels near $2,720 and $2,690 are key to sustaining the positive momentum. Gold prices remain near multi-month highs, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts. A breakout above $2,750 could signal further gains, while $2,720 acts as key support. • Gold benefits from global uncertainties and trade war fears, attracting investors as a reliable safe-haven asset. • Expectations of two rate cuts this year enhance the appeal of gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. • Concerns over US trade policies and global trade wars drive sustained demand for the yellow metal. • A modest recovery in the US Dollar poses minor resistance to gold’s upward momentum. • A breakout above the $2,750 mark could trigger further bullish momentum in gold prices. • Price corrections may find support near $2,720 and $2,690, limiting potential downside risks. • Positive oscillators on the daily chart and a breakout through resistance zones point to continued bullish sentiment for gold. Gold prices remain resilient near multi-month highs, driven by robust safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical uncertainties and trade war fears. The concerns of markets over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including probable tariffs, continue to fuel interest in the yellow metal. Secondly, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut twice this year support gold, as less interest reduces the opportunity cost to hold non-yielding assets. Despite a moderate bounce in the US Dollar and resurging US Treasury yields, the underlying remains conducive for more upside for gold prices. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView Prepared By ELLYANA Gold prices continue to trend upwards, boosted by strong safe haven demand amid concerns of a global trade war and the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The recent breakout above the $2,720 resistance zone has reinforced bullish sentiment, with $2,750 emerging as the next critical level to watch. While a modest recovery in the US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields may temporarily cap gains, the overall outlook remains positive. Technical indicators suggest room for further upside, with any pullbacks likely finding support near $2,720 and $2,690. Traders remain optimistic about a potential challenge to the all-time high of $2,790. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a technical perspective, gold prices have broken through key resistance levels, signaling strong bullish momentum. The recent breakout above the $2,720 supply zone acts as a trigger for further upside, with $2,750 emerging as the next significant resistance. The oscillators on the daily chart are still firmly in positive territory and show no signs of being overbought, which opens up more room for further gains. The key support levels are located near $2,720 and $2,690, and any corrective pullbacks are expected to attract buying interest. A sustained move above $2,750 could pave the way for gold to challenge the all-time high of $2,790, keeping the bullish outlook intact. FORECAST Prices for the yellow metal will likely remain positive, influenced by safe-haven demand due to continuing geopolitical uncertainty and trade war tensions. The non-yielding metal is also likely to be further supported by potential cuts from the Federal Reserve, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Technically speaking, a follow-through above $2,750 may provide room to surge all the way up toward the record at $2,790 as more bullish oscillators will also leave much more upside left to come. The metal should see renewed interest to purchase as gold attracts the bullish capital on further rallies into such an unpredictable market period. Positive drivers notwithstanding, the rebound in the US Dollar and ongoing recovery in US Treasury yields could dampen the upside a bit in the short term, unless the support above the $2,720-$2,690 range can be sustained. If that breaks down, technical selling would ensue, taking the price all the way to the $2,660 zone. Other downside risks will arise if the risk-on environment can intensify from lower tensions or more positive than expected economic data. In such a scenario, prices of gold would retrace back towards the $2,625 confluence, being a critical juncture that forms the 100-day EMA and an ascending trendline – which may act as a decisive point for determination of the future directional move.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Rises on Fresh USD Selling: Market Analysis

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  • January 20, 2025
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Gold prices have started the week on a positive note, supported by renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar amid growing expectations of two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The yellow metal, considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, finds support around the $2,700 mark, with technical levels indicating potential resistance near $2,715 and $2,724-2,725. On the downside, any dips are likely to attract buyers, with significant support zones at $2,662 and $2,635. Although a strengthening geopolitical sentiment and strong equity market mood might put a lid on gains, the markets are on their toes before important events such as US President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural speech that might shape inflation expectations and direction of Federal Reserve policy. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are expecting two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year that may soften the USD and cause gold prices to soar further as an asset that finds safe haven. • Gold is resisting at $2,715 and $2,725; it could rally to $2,745 if oscillators on the daily chart continue to stay bullish. • Strong support is seen between $2,662 and $2,635; any significant decline below these levels may attract a bearish trend, thus cautious investor attention. • Donald Trump’s economic policies and easing tensions in the Middle East are still important factors, which may impact both inflation expectations and safe-haven demand for gold. Prices for gold still seem buoyant, lifted by expectations that there would be two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, which has weakened the US Dollar and bolstered safe-haven demand. From a technical perspective, the yellow metal faces resistances near $2,715 and $2,725, and it may climb towards $2,745 if bullish momentum continues. Key support levels are likely to attract dip-buyers at $2,662 and $2,635, capping a deeper decline. While geopolitical tensions ease and US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies are likely to have a bearing on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response, they remain essential in forming the gold market view. A softer US Dollar supports gold prices, with Federal Reserve rate cuts being anticipated. Strong support comes in at $2,662, and $2,715 remains the resistance point. • Speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts has softened the USD, increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. • Gold faces significant resistance at $2,715 and $2,724-2,725, with potential to reach $2,745 if bullish momentum continues. • Dip-buying activity is expected near $2,662 and $2,635, offering a safety net for gold’s price movement. • Daily chart oscillators are seen positive, which might pave the way for potential moves higher, either toward $2,760 or even higher. • Expectation of policies of Donald Trump and creeping inflationary pressures could definitely exert an influence on investors’ outlook in increasing demand for gold. • Easing tensions in the Middle East and a stable equity market are likely to cap the short term gains in gold. • Aiming to challenge its all-time high of $2,790, gold remains a focal point for investors seeking stability amid uncertain global events. Gold prices started the week on a modest note, supported by renewed selling in the US Dollar amid growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The prospect of lower interest rates has weakened the greenback, making gold a more attractive safe-haven asset for investors. Technically, gold faces resistance near the $2,715 and $2,724 levels, while support zones at $2,662 and $2,635 continue to attract dip-buying activity. Positive momentum in daily chart oscillators suggests the potential for further gains, with the yellow metal eyeing the $2,745 intermediate hurdle and potentially moving towards its all-time high of $2,790. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA However, geopolitical and economic factors could influence gold’s trajectory. The easing of tensions in the Middle East and a generally positive tone in equity markets may cap gold’s upside, as investors show less interest in risk-averse assets. Meanwhile, anticipation of US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies and their potential impact on inflation and monetary policy add another layer of uncertainty to the market. These dynamics, allied with key technical levels, place gold’s performance high on the agendas of traders and investors in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a technical analysis viewpoint, gold prices are approaching levels that could go a long way in deciding the near-term trend. The two zones of resistance at $2,715 and $2,724-$2,725 remain crucial. Should these break out, it’s likely to clear the way toward $2,745 and further toward the range of $2,760-$2,762. The daily chart oscillators are still accumulating positive momentum, sustaining the bullish sentiment. On the downside, there is immediate support between $2,700 and $2,690, but a stronger floor around $2,662-$2,635 aligns with a short-term ascending trendline and the 100-day EMA. If these levels fail to hold for an extended period, it would suggest a deeper pullback toward the $2,620-$2,615 confluence zone.  FORECAST Gold prices are poised for further gains as technical indicators maintain a bullish outlook. A sustained break above the $2,715 resistance level could open the door to test the $2,724-$2,725 region, a one-month high. Beyond this, the next upside targets lie at $2,745, with an eventual move toward the $2,760-$2,762 area if positive momentum persists. Strong demand from dip-buyers and even more favorable macroeconomic conditions, for example, if the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates again, could power the rally higher. In the longer term, gold may well try to make a new high at $2,790 in case geopolitical tensions or inflationary concerns flare again. On the downside, major support lies around $2,700 and then $2,690, and a deeper cushion around $2,662-$2,635. A breakdown of these levels would likely lead to additional selling that would drive the price down toward $2,620-$2,615. Here, several technical factors including a short-term ascending trendline and the 100-day EMA offer good support. More significant corrections for gold could occur in the event of a shift in broader market sentiment or a strengthening US Dollar due to unexpected economic data or Federal Reserve commentary. However, heavy buying

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Commodities Gold

Gold Bulls Face Key Test at $2,708 Resistance as Inflation Data Boosts Rate Cut Speculation

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  • January 16, 2025
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Gold prices extended their recovery, rising above $2,700 and eyeing further gains, fueled by mixed US CPI data that increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June. While headline CPI accelerated, core inflation rose more slowly than expected, boosting the probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 63.8% chance of lower rates after the June meeting. This drove gold’s ascent to a pivotal level of $2,708, with potential resistance at $2,721 and the all-time high of $2,790 looming ahead. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained in a downward trend, bolstering the positive sentiment for gold. But at $2,708, it is a test of technical significance that may result in a correction if the Relative Strength Index shows it is overheating. A close above $2,721 will put gold into a position for a run to its all-time high. Downside support rests at $2,671, $2,648, and $2,640. KEY LOOKOUTS • Even higher market expectations for a Fed rate cut by June may continue to drive gold prices higher as long as inflation moves lower. • Gold needs to clear some tough resistance at $2,708 and $2,721 to potentially drive prices toward the all-time high of $2,790 • Fast RSI moves could be an overheat sign, and gold prices might experience a short-term correction if momentum declines near major resistance zones. • The US Treasury yields have been trending lower, currently below 4.70%, and are likely to further propel gold upward since lower yields decrease the opportunity costs of holding bullion. The gold is near critical resistances at $2,708 and $2,721. If it breaks out above those levels, then it could continue pushing prices up toward the all-time high of $2,790. Additionally, growing market expectations for a Fed rate cut by June will continue to support the prices if inflation remains subdued. However, the sharp rise in the RSI indicates overheating and a short-term correction if momentum stalls. Moreover, the continued decline in US Treasury yields, which are currently below 4.70%, will further provide upside for gold as lower yields reduce opportunity costs for holding bullion. A rise in the hopes of a Fed rate cut by June supports the gold prices and resistance at $2,708 and $2,721. A breakout might target $2,790; however, overbought RSI and declining Treasury yields bring caution. • Growing market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by June supports gold’s upside. • US CPI: Core inflation grows at a slower rate, increasing the chances of Fed rate cut. • Critical resistance sits at $2,708 and $2,721; prices exceeding these levels is a possible threat for pushing up to its highs at $2,790 • An explosive rising RSI often spells overheating conditions that a near-term selling could be inevitable should the move get stuck up • Treasury yields falling well under 4.70% decrease opportunity costs, aiding the rise in gold; bearish thesis from this arena ruled out by technical • Buy-support levels arrive around $2,671,$ 2,648, $2,640. • The upcoming US economic data, such as retail sales and jobless claims, will be critical in determining the market sentiment and direction of gold prices. Gold prices are on the upswing due to increasing prospects of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve by June, following mixed US CPI data. Although the headline inflation has accelerated, core inflation increased at a slower pace, which has increased the chances of a 25 basis point rate cut. The market is now pricing in a 63.8% chance of lower rates after the June meeting, which has fueled demand for gold as a safe haven. Gold is facing key resistance at $2,708 and $2,721; breaking these levels could see it targeting the all-time high of $2,790. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView, prepared by ELLYANA Technical indicators are hinting at being cautious, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects rapid growth here, which would mean overheating and a good chance of seeing a short-term correction. On the downside, one finds support lines at $2,671, $2,648, and $2,640. Yet, falling US Treasury yields, at this point less than 4.70%, continue to give gold prices their boost since falling yields lower the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets, such as bullion. Upcoming US economic data in the form of retail sales and jobless claims, for example, could decide the course of gold to maintain its bullish or pull back. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The firm currently remains in an uptrend with prices above $2,700 and is seen making its way toward significant resistance at $2,708. A crack of this level will push gold to $2,721 and all-time high of $2,790. However, the Relative Strength Index is increasing rapidly, showing more and more bullish momentum, but also at a risk of overheating and short-term correction. Key support levels are at $2,671 (trendline), $2,648 (55-day SMA), and $2,640 (100-day SMA). If gold fails to break through resistance, a pullback towards these support zones could occur, while strong breaks could extend the rally further.  FORECAST Gold is now bullish, with an excellent thrust above $2,700. If the price breaks above $2,708, then it should move into $2,721, which could hit $2,790 as the all-time high. Continued expectations for a June Fed rate cut and falling Treasury yields will push gold even higher. When gold clears $2,721, then it can open the route to a rally into $2,790 or higher. If gold runs into resistance and cannot break above $2,708, there is a good chance of a pullback, especially if the RSI is showing signs of overheating. In this case, key support levels are at $2,671 (trendline), $2,648 (55-day SMA), and $2,640 (100-day SMA). A failure to hold above these levels could send the price lower, potentially testing $2,640 or lower. The risk of a correction is higher if momentum slows or if unfavorable economic data impacts sentiment.

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