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Commodities Gold

Gold hits record high on fears of US-China trade war and Fed rate cut speculations

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  • February 5, 2025
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Gold has reached a fresh all-time high of $2,862 on fears of an intensifying US-China trade war and growing expectations of further cuts in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates. Safe-haven demand continues to remain strong as investors react to China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US and signs of a weakening US labor market. This would further push down the US dollar, further propelling gold upwards, although President Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico does take a bit off the edge from risk. With the breakout above $2,800 despite technical conditions that show overbought, traders still have plenty of room for a higher run-up. Today will be more on US economic releases such as ADP employment and ISM Services PMI while Friday’s NFP report is highly anticipated. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold reached a high of $2,862 from US-China trade war fears and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, solidifying high safe haven demand. • Potential Fed rate cuts and weaker US labor market data kept the USD under pressure, resulting in further bullish momentum for XAU/USD. • Uncertainty persisted following China’s retaliatory tariffs on US imports; otherwise, gold prices would have collapsed in the face of Trump’s temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico. • Investors will look at US ADP employment data, ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for the immediate direction of the gold price. Gold has reached a record $2,862 as investors take shelter from increasing US-China trade war tensions and expectations of more Federal Reserve rate cuts. The softening US labor market, as marked by the decline in job openings, has continued to ignite rumors for further monetary relief, pressing down on the US currency and pushing up demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. While risk aversion remained slightly subdued after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, China’s retaliatory tariffs kept uncertainty elevated in the market. Traders now await key economic reports, including the US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report expected to influence gold’s short-term trajectory. Despite the overbought RSI signaling caution, technical support near $2,830 and $2,800 suggests potential buying opportunities, reinforcing the metal’s bullish momentum. Gold prices surged to a record high of $2,862 amid US-China trade war fears and Fed rate cut expectations. Weak US labor market data pressured the USD, boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal. Traders now await key economic reports, with technical support near $2,830 and $2,800 signaling potential buying opportunities. • Gold price hit an all-time peak of $2,862 amid escalating US-China trade war concerns and safe-haven demand. • The USD has come under pressure as the Fed has reduced its expectations on the fed rate cut, coupled with the slowdown in the US labor market. • China’s imposition of tariffs on imports from the US intensified trade tensions, which bolstered demand for gold as an investment against uncertainty. • A brief reprieve of US tariffs on Canada and Mexico eased risk concerns but failed to dent gold’s strong bullish sentiment. • Investors are keeping an eye on the US ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for market-moving signals. • Overbought RSI calls for caution, but strong support near $2,830 and $2,800 indicates continued buying interest in gold. • The breakout above $2,800 confirms the upward trend of gold, and investors are looking for further gains amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Gold prices have touched fresh all-time highs at $2,862 as investors run to safety amid growing US-China trade war fears and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US imports have recently heightened their concerns over economic instability in the global economy and are pushing up demand for this yellow metal as a safe haven. Moreover, softer US labor market indicators, such as the job openings, have created an expectation that the Fed might maintain its dovish stance with monetary policy easing. This, in turn, has exerted downward pressure on the US dollar, and therefore gold has further strengthened its bullish trend. Though Trump has offered some relief by temporarily suspending tariffs on Canada and Mexico, this hasn’t dented the appeal of gold in a risk-averse scenario. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Traders are now closely watching upcoming economic data, including the US ADP employment report and ISM Services PMI, for short-term market direction. However, the focus remains on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Fed’s rate decision and, consequently, gold prices. From a technical perspective, the overbought RSI signals a potential pullback, but strong support near $2,830 and $2,800 suggests buying interest remains intact. The recent break above the $2,800 level further enhances the bullish direction, as traders expect more rise in the coming days due to uncertainty in world markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now in a firm uptrend as it has taken out the main resistance level at $2,800. As such, its bullish trend remains intact. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is overbought on both the daily and the hourly charts. There is strong support seen close to the areas of $2,830 and $2,800 that could work as a buying zone in case prices fall back. A strong move above $2,862 could open doors for further upsides toward $2,900 whereas breaks below $2,800 might trigger deeper retracement toward the $2,772 support zone. Traders must monitor price action at these important levels and soon-to-be released economic data to confirm the continuation of the trend. FORECAST The robust bullish momentum that gold has must be taken advantage of, given the persistence of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The US-China trade war rages on while expectations of a further cut by the Federal Reserve in interest rates continue to bolster the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. If gold manages to stay above that important $2,800 key support level, then the possibility of breaking through to a level around $2,900 increases. Further upside can also come in due to the softness in the labor market,

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls from Record Highs as USD Strength and Market Uncertainty Take Hold

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  • February 4, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its all-time high amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and improved economic data. While Trump’s three-month tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada gives the market hope, concern for the bigger picture still has his broader trade policies and the inflationary impact sustaining gold as a safe haven. Even on near-term consolidation, the overall trend remains bullish, with strong supports around $2,773-2,772 going to limit the downward moves. Investors remain cautious ahead of US economic data releases, which could influence both the USD and gold’s trajectory. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold loses ground from records as a resurgent US dollar and rising Treasury yields cap near-term upside potential for the yellow metal. • Fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs and their implications on inflation will continue to prop up gold as a safe-haven asset even as US-Mexico-Canada relations stabilize. • A dovish yet cautious Fed cuts, fueled by solid economic statistics, supports the USD, curtailing gold’s short-term bullish prospects. • Support lies at $2,773-2,772 with resistance at $2,830. A breakout would determine the course to be chosen for gold amid increasing market uncertainty. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats off record high; strength US Dollar, surging yields in Treasury weigh on momentum, as Trump’s timed tariff pause on Mexico and Canada bolsters market confidence, but overall worries for trade policies and a runaway inflation scenario continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts have further strengthened the USD, limiting gold’s immediate upside. However, key support at $2,773-2,772 is expected to cushion any downside, while a break above $2,830 could reignite bullish momentum. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming US economic data, which could influence gold’s trajectory. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its record high as a stronger US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields limit gains. Concerns over Trump’s trade policies and inflation support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Key levels at $2,773-2,772 provide support, while a breakout above $2,830 could signal further upside. • XAU/USD retreats from its all-time peak as a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weigh on bullish momentum. • The temporary suspension of Mexico-Canada tariffs provides a boost to market confidence, but overall trade policy fears and inflation worries keep the safe-haven appeal of gold locked in place. • Strong US economic data and the Fed’s gentle approach to cuts further support the USD, making gold less appealing in the near term. • Gold remains supported around $2,773-2,772; any drop below this could extend declines toward $2,755 and $2,725. • Bulls must overcome this level in order to get back on an uptrend and a successful breakout could propel gold to even more significant targets. • JOLTS job openings and factory orders reports, the next few days, will shape both the action of the USD and gold • Despite near-term consolidation, gold is in an uptrend as inflation worries and global economic uncertainty weigh. The US Dollar’s resurgence, which has been coupled with rebounding Treasury bond yields and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, is leading to a pullback in the gold price from its record high. Although President Trump’s move to temporarily halt tariffs on Mexico and Canada boosted investor confidence, overall concerns regarding trade wars and inflation remain. Strong US economic data, including a rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and inflation indicators, has further strengthened the greenback, making gold less attractive in the short term. However, gold remains well-positioned as a hedge against inflationary pressures, limiting the downside and keeping the overall bullish trend intact. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s near-term price action suggests consolidation, with key support around the $2,773-2,772 region. Any breakdown beneath this point would be followed by fresh declines toward $2,755 and then conceivably to $2,725. On the upside, resistance at $2,830—Monday’s record high—is the final hurdle in the way of further advances. In the case of renewed bullish momentum, an extension of the rally from December’s $2,583 low might see prices rise. Market players are closely watching the upcoming US economic data, such as JOLTS job openings and factory orders, which may give further direction for both the USD and gold’s next move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase after hitting its all-time high. The key support levels are at $2,773-2,772. A breakdown below this zone could extend losses toward $2,755 and further to the $2,725-$2,720 region. However, the bigger picture trend is still positive, and each dip will only attract buying. On the way up, near-term resistance rests at $2,830 – the recent peak – and if it breaks convincingly above here, the momentum could get fired up again with a view towards new highs. The RSI is overbought, meaning a short-term pullback into the next leg higher is quite possible. Traders will be closely monitoring price action around the important levels for possible trades. FORECAST XAU/USD price in gold keeps a positive scenario despite the short-term consolidation and still enjoys a key level resistance area at $2,830 as an important breakthrough. If the spot above this level can be sustained, the new rally towards $2,850 is expected with further continuation towards the psychological level of $2,900. The continued inflation fears, as well as uncertainty about US trade policies, could maintain demand for gold as a hedge. Also, any dovish shift by the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected US economic data will help support gold’s upside momentum. The yellow metal remains well-positioned for further gains in the medium term given the broader uptrend from December’s swing low at $2,583. Although gold has a bullish structure, the upside is capped by downside risks, mainly fueled by a rising US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields. If selling pressure increases, the first layer of defense for gold is $2,773-2,772, which is a crucial support area. A break below this level will expose the commodity to further

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Near Record High: Market Awaits US PCE Price Index for Next Move

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  • January 31, 2025
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Gold prices have reached an all-time high of $2,800 as geopolitical tensions, trade war concerns, and expectations of rising inflation under US President Donald Trump’s policies continue to drive the price up. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and rebounding US Treasury yields have capped further gains, as traders remain cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While sustained strength above $2,800 could trigger further bullish momentum, technical indicators suggest the possibility of a short-term consolidation or pullback. Key support levels lie between $2,773 and $2,720, with any break below these points potentially signaling a deeper correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders await the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights into future monetary policy and gold’s next movement. • The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates and its cautious approach to rate cuts could impact gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. • The tariff threats from Trump and the geopolitical events, such as Russia’s military actions, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold in uncertain markets. • A sustained break above $2,800 is likely to add more bullish strength, while the key support levels at $2,773 and $2,720 are likely to cap the downside risks. Gold prices continue to hover close to record highs, and the US PCE Price Index is being closely watched for further market direction. The stance of the Federal Reserve remaining hawkish, along with steady interest rates, means that its influence continues to deprive the precious metal of further upside. However, both global geopolitical unrest and US President Donald Trump’s announcement of trade tariffs have sustained gold’s safe haven appeal. Technically, any break above $2,800 could provide substantial upside momentum, while key support levels at $2,773 and $2,720 could act as price stabilizers during a pullback. In expectation of market movement based on tomorrow’s US PCE Price Index, gold sits at a hair’s breadth off record levels today. Geopolitical tensions further drive the urge for safe heavens, but from a technical angle, two figures stand between trading and those barriers: $2,800, and $2,773 • Gold tops all-time, at $2,800 – Inflation Fear, Geopolitical Tension Boosts Spot Price. • Release of US PCE Price Index, which happens to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide clues regarding future monetary policy. • The Fed remains tight-fisted and will not reduce the interest rates, hinting at no hurry in slashing borrowing costs, thus restricts the further upside in gold. • Trump’s tariff threats to Mexico, Canada and BRICS nations are creating uncertainty in the markets that increases gold as a safe haven commodity. • Russia’s military mobilizations and worldwide tensions are going to drive demand for gold as an avenue for hedging uncertainty. • A sustained move above $2,800 is set to trigger further upward steam, while key support levels at $2,773 and then $2,720 are crucial. • The modest recovery of US Treasury bond yields and US Dollar’s strength put slight pressure on this upward movement. Gold prices have hit an all-time high of $2,800, as the metal benefits from safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats on Mexico, Canada, and BRICS nations added to market uncertainty, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability. Additionally, investors are closely monitoring the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights into future monetary policy. While the Fed has maintained a hawkish stance by keeping interest rates steady, traders remain cautious, waiting for fresh economic data before making significant moves.  XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold remains well-positioned for further gains if it sustains strength above the $2,800 mark. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests overbought conditions, indicating a possible short-term consolidation or pullback. Key support levels are seen at $2,773 and $2,720, which could provide stability in case of a downturn. Meanwhile, a stronger US Dollar and a modest recovery in Treasury bond yields could put slight pressure on gold’s rally. Traders will now look for the US economic data and other global events that will determine gold’s next direction in the market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a strong uptrend, as the price continues to hold around its all-time high of $2,800. A break above this level decisively may lead to more bullish momentum and open the way for higher resistance levels. However, the daily Relative Strength Index is moving toward overbought territory and could see some short-term consolidation or pullback before another leg higher. Support zones are around $2,773 and $2,720, where buyers might step in to defend the uptrend. A break below these levels may see increased selling pressure, dragging gold down toward $2,700 or even lower. Traders are now watching price action closely to determine whether gold can sustain its bullish breakout or undergo a temporary correction. FORECAST Gold’s bullish momentum is intact and still holds above its record high at $2,800. If this current price action above the major psychological level can be held in support, further buying interest might appear, pushing gold on to the next resistance levels available at $2,820 and $2,850. Continued geopolitical tensions, worries over the trade policies of Trump, and anticipation of inflationary pressure would be the forces driving safe haven demand, hence further supporting the upward move. If the next US PCE Price Index report hints at an inflationary environment, gold might gain renewed attention as a hedge, and therefore strengthen its stance above the $2,800 mark. A weaker US Dollar along with sinking Treasury yields would further fuel the rally and drive it toward a potential test of $2,900 in the short term. Although gold has rallied convincingly during this time frame, weakness can be seen when these markets are overbought and when interference is noticed from external markets. The Relative Strength Index is nearing the overbought zone, which might usher a short-term correction or consolidation. If gold does not

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Continues Rising, With Potential to Rise Further, Amid Economic Uncertainty and Declining US Bond Yields

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  • January 30, 2025
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Gold prices are trading near weekly highs above $2,765 as it continues its steady climb, driven by declining US bond yields and increasing concerns over the economic impact of former President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs. While the hawkish pause by the Federal Reserve retains a semblance of stability in the US Dollar, sliding Treasury yields and expectations of future policy easing lend support to the non-yielding metal. Investors remain cautious as the market awaits key economic events, which include the European Central Bank (ECB) decision and the US Q4 GDP report. As for technicals, the cue of moving above the resistance zone of $2,772-$2,773 could provide room for a higher move toward $2,786 and even the record high of $2,790. However, the $2,745 support break below could attract some selling pressures, which is more likely at $2,730-$2,725. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve’s rate hold puts some immediate easing before policy but keeps the US Dollar resilient enough to cap the uptrend of the Gold. • Sliding US Treasury yields weaken the US Dollar, enhancing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. • Potential economic fallout from Trump’s tariff plans increases market volatility, driving safe-haven demand for Gold as investors assess global trade risks. • A breakout above $2,772-$2,773 could push Gold toward all-time highs, while a drop below $2,745 may trigger further downside. Gold prices continue upward, driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, sliding US bond yields, and safe-haven demand amid worries over Donald Trump’s trade policies. The Fed’s hawkish pause keeps the US Dollar relatively strong, thereby limiting immediate upside potential for gold, but future policy easing and lower interest rates continue to buoy bullish sentiment. Investors are careful to follow the key technical levels and, in the event of a breakdown above $2,772-$2,773, prices may move up towards all-time highs at $2,790. However, a fall below $2,745 could be seen carrying on further downward pressure. Therefore, the next price move will largely depend on the upcoming European Central Bank’s decisions and US economic releases. Gold prices remain strong amid economic uncertainty, sliding US bond yields, and trade concerns. A breakout above $2,772 could push prices higher, while support near $2,745 remains crucial. Investors await key economic data for further direction. • XAU/USD trades above $2,765, supported by declining US bond yields and safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady keeps the US Dollar strong, limiting Gold’s upside potential. • Sliding US Treasury yields weaken the USD making Gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset. • Worries about an economic backlash from the proposed Trump tariffs boost safe-haven demand for Gold. • Breaking above $2,772-$2,773 may take Gold up to the $2,786-$2,790 area, very close to its all-time highs. • A slide below $2,745 may provide the catalyst for further declines, strong supportive below $2,725-$2,730. • Investors focus on the ECB policy decision and US Q4 GDP report for further market direction. Gold prices continue to trade near weekly highs, benefiting from sliding US bond yields and safe-haven demand amid growing economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause has kept interest rates steady, supporting the US Dollar and limiting Gold’s gains. However, fears of the economic implications of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and his calls for lower interest rates have further fueled expectations of future monetary easing, adding to Gold’s appeal. Declining US Treasury yields have also further weakened the USD, making the non-yielding yellow metal an attractive investment option. Investors are currently closely following the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision and the release of US Q4 GDP later today for more market direction. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold is still strong at current levels near weekly highs while investors continue reacting to economic uncertainty, falling US bond yields, and trade policy concerns. The hawkish Federal Reserve stance has provided some support to the US Dollar. However, with expectations of further rate cuts and inflationary pressures, the upside momentum of Gold remains favored. A breakout above the $2,772-$2,773 resistance zone would push prices to $2,786 and test the all-time high of $2,790. However, if Gold is unable to sustain its gains, a break below $2,745 could fuel further declines. Support could then be found around $2,725-$2,730. Market participants are focusing on the major economic events, such as a policy decision by the European Central Bank and US PCE inflation data, which will define the next move for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains bullish as it broke above its major resistance zone of $2,720-$2,725. The next major sell-off area is at $2,772-$2,773, and a successful breakout above that may send the prices to the range of $2,786-$2,790 and close to all-time highs. Positive oscillators on the daily chart support the continuation of the rally. On the downside, initial support is placed at $2,745 with stronger support placed in the area of $2,725-$2,730. A move below these will continue to see selling pressure accelerating, and eventually, prices are expected to plummet to $2,707 and then to $2,684. Market participants will be focused on market sentiment and key events in the economic calendar to gauge the next directional move in the price of Gold. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to move higher as bullish momentum is further supported by the decline in US bond yields, economic uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. A breakout above the key resistance at $2,772-$2,773 could open the door for an extended rally toward $2,786, followed by the all-time high near $2,790. If buying pressure continues, a further push beyond the $2,800 psychological level could trigger fresh bullish sentiment, reinforcing Gold’s well-established uptrend. Also, there is an expectation of further future monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, which can be the reasons for further surge in Gold’s price in the future sessions. Yet, the bullish view cannot fully remove the vulnerability of Gold towards possible downside corrections. If the price fails to hold above $2,772, it might

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