WTI is near $70 a barrel as rising fears of downside pressure build amid Iraq’s imminent restart of exports of 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan’s oilfields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Geopolitical strains remain with the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and negotiations between Russian and US groups with a view to enhancing bilateral relations, and investors expect continued market effect from prospective US trade policy changes and imminent tariff news. Market analysts also look forward to the announcement of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, an important benchmark for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate stance.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• WTI as resumed Kurdistan’s oilfield exports and worldwide geopolitical events shape crude oil pricing dynamics.

• Track current Russia-Ukraine tensions and future EU summits, since these geopolitical events have the potential to impact global energy markets and investor sentiment greatly.

• Track US trade policy changes and tariff announcements, which could heighten global trade tensions and put extra pressure on crude oil market stability.

• Expect release of the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to analyze changes in prospective interest rate policy impacting the energy market.

WTI as Kurdish oilfield resume exports and geopolitical events worldwide continue to shape the dynamics of crude oil prices. Monitor current tensions between Russia and Ukraine and coming EU summits, as the geopolitical tensions will have a wide-ranging impact on global energy markets and investor perceptions. Watch for US trade policy changes and tariff announcements, which can heighten global trade tensions and further weigh on crude oil market stability. Wait for the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s most important inflation gauge, to see if there are changes in future interest rate policies that influence the energy industry.

WTI is under downward pressure in the face of resumed Kurdistan exports and increased geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and possible US trade policy changes. Market participants are monitoring the release of the PCE index later today for clues on future Fed policy.

• WTI is around $70 per barrel in Asian trading.

• Downside pressure is expected with the resumption of exports from Kurdistan oilfields.

• Iraq’s Oil Ministry confirmed that 185,000 barrels per day would be exported through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.

• Global crude prices are influenced by increased geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• Russian and US delegations are due to meet this week to discuss how to improve bilateral relations.

• Prospective changes in US trade policy and future tariff announcements could provide additional pressure.

• Market players are waiting for the upcoming release of the PCE index for some guidance on the future direction of Fed policy.

WTI crude oil prices are being shaped by a variety of geopolitical considerations, including the reopening of oil production from Kurdistan’s fields. Iraq’s Oil Ministry has announced an intention to sell 185,000 barrels a day through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which has sparked curiosity about what impact this may have on global supplies of crude oil. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to attract worldwide interest, with debates ongoing about possible diplomatic interventions between Russia and the US to better relations, further influencing the climate in which international oil markets are conducted. Oil prices remain at about $70 a barrel as global affairs continue to influence the market. Recent proposals to restart oil exports from Kurdistan through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been confirmed by Iraq’s Oil Ministry, and this will see a lot of crude oil in the international market soon. 

WTI OIL Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, wider geopolitical trends are adding to the uncertainty. Continuing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, negotiations between Russian and US delegations, and possible changes in US trade policy are all trends that market observers are watching intently. Moreover, the impending release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is likely to shed more light on the direction of future economic policy.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WTI crude seems to be consolidating at the $70 level, with recent chart action suggesting a phase of indecision among investors. Moving averages like the 50-day and 200-day are converging, which has been known to indicate a accumulation of potential volatility once a break is made. Also, significant support levels at the mid-$68 range have held firm, while resistance is seen to be building just above $70. Momentum gauges, such as the RSI, are in neutral mode, indicating that players are waiting for a clear cut move to go higher or dip lower.

FORECAST

 If OPEC+ chooses to restrain from production hikes or makes cuts, the threat of supply shortages could reinforce bullish sentiment, pushing prices over the $70 mark.Economic indicators continuing to be strong and geopolitical tensions relaxing could lead to renewed investor optimism pushing oil prices higher. Favorable trade news and consistent demand could facilitate a gradual recovery in WTI, particularly if any supply restrictions arise or if market sentiment tilts towards risk-on behavior.

If the restart of Kurdistan’s exports results in a supply-suppressed market or if geopolitical and trade tensions worsen, oil prices might come under downward pressure. Deteriorating demand or negative economic indicators might induce a pullback below current levels, supporting a conservative market outlook. Moreover, rising volatility or even indications of monetary policy tightening, i.e., the hike of interest rates, might mute optimistic market sentiment and provide further downward pressure on crude oil.