WTI crude oil is facing bear pressure at $65.10 as the strong US dollar and renewed concerns on global trade weigh on sentiment. The bearish view is further supported by the price remaining below the important 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $65.55. The recent doubling of US tariffs on Indian exports by US President Donald Trump has escalated concerns of slowing global trade and softer demand for crude oil. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reading neutral momentum, a break below the first support point of $63.40 may trigger further losses to $62.80 and $61.50. On the other hand, a break above the 100-day EMA at $65.55 could indicate a possible rebound, with the resistance points to monitor at $67.64 and $69.86. Now everyone’s focusing on the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report later today, and potentially delivering the next impetus for price activity.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• 100-day EMA around $65.55 is a pivotal resistance point which WTI must cross above to indicate a possible reversal from its current bearish trend.

• The first support level at $63.40 is a crucial floor; a strong break below it may create further declines in price.

• The question of when the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil stock report remains a significant event that has the potential to cause the next major price movement.

• A strong US dollar and uncertainty about a slowdown in global trade are the key fundamental drivers keeping the price of WTI down at present.

WTI crude oil is under considerable downward pressure, with prices trading in the vicinity of $65.10. It is mainly based on a robust US dollar and rising global trade tensions, especially a new surge in US tariffs on Indian imports. The technical picture is also negative, with the price below the pivotal 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $65.55. Although the neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates some possibility of consolidation, a breakdown below the support price of $63.40 may cause further losses. On the contrary, a consistent move above the 100-day EMA is required to change the momentum, with possible upside targets being $67.64 and $69.86. The market now looks to the latest data on American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventories, which potentially offer the next catalyst for direction.

WTI crude is on the defensive, trading lower than its 100-day EMA at around $65.55 on a stronger dollar and fears of weakening global trade. The next catalyst is coming from the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report. A break below the support at $63.40 might lead to further losses, while a move above the EMA would confirm a turnaround.

• WTI crude oil is trading with bearish bias, still under the pivotal 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $65.55.

• WTI is weakening, trading at about $65.10 in early European trading hours on Wednesday.

• The price fall is due to a stronger US dollar and heightened concerns of decelerating global trade and declining demand, after US President Donald Trump doubled the tariffs imposed on Indian exports.

• The first support lies at $63.40, the September 1 low. Further breakdowns may cause the price to fall to $62.80 and then $61.50.

• The near-term resistance is the 100-day EMA at $65.55. A break above this may take the price to higher resistance levels at $67.64 and $69.86.

• The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around the midline, indicating neutral momentum and suggesting potential for consolidation or a brief bounce.

• Oil traders are waiting for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report later on Wednesday, which might be the next market catalyst.

WTI oil prices are under pressure to the downside, led by a higher US dollar and increasing fear that the global economy will slow down. The recent escalation of US tariffs on Indian imports has heightened these fears since it adds the possibility of diminishing demand for crude oil from one of the world’s leading economies. This underlying bearishness is holding the market down, sending the price of the US benchmark down.

WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART PRICE

SOURCE: TradingView

The market is holding steady as traders wait for the critical data that may give the next direction for prices. Coming up this week is the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report, which is a highly awaited event. This US crude oil inventories report is one of the key indicators of supply and demand trends, and its findings could either validate the prevailing bearish scenario or help catalyze a rebound. Price is at a precarious crossroads currently, and the result of these data releases will play an instrumental role in deciding if the downtrend persists or if there is a bounce waiting to happen.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WTI crude oil market is presently influenced by a bearish bias. The price is below its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $65.55, which is an important sign of the long-term trend. This indicates that the bears dominate and the direction of least resistance is to the south. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around the midline, suggesting neutral near-term momentum and not a strong directional signal. The market has set a first level of support at $63.40, and a break below that might create further downward momentum toward the August lows at $62.80 and the lower Bollinger Band at $61.50. Conversely, a continued advance above the 100-day EMA at $65.55 is required to negate the bearish outlook and may set the stage for a rally towards the resistance levels of $67.64 and $69.86.

FORECAST

WTI crude oil is presently under a bearish forecast on account of a number of factors. A major technical indicator, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.55, is serving as a robust resistance level. So long as the price is below this level, the bearish outlook is likely to continue. At its core, a stronger US dollar and newfound concerns over international trade, led by US President Donald Trump’s doubling of tariffs on Indian exports, are dampening commodity demand. This technical resistance and fundamental headwind combination indicates that WTI may experience further falls. The first level to watch on the downside is $63.40, and a break below this can push prices toward $62.80 and subsequently down to the key level of $61.50.

In spite of the overall bearish mood, at least an upside potential for WTI crude oil cannot be discounted. A strong break and close above the 100-day EMA at $65.55 would be a major bullish indicator, opening the doors for a potential comeback. If the price is able to break above this significant resistance, bulls’ next targets would be the July 11 high of $67.64 and then the July 31 high of $69.86. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at present around the midline also indicates a neutral momentum, with space for either an extension upwards or a consolidation mode. The market also expects the weekly crude oil stock report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which may serve as a catalyst for a turn-around in case data shows a more-than-anticipated draw in stockpiles, indicating increased demand.