WTI crude oil trades near $72 per barrel as it struggles on US-China trade tensions and the rising supply risks from Iran. The market has apparently downplayed the impact of the trade war even after China announced new tariffs on US imports of crude oil and LNG. However, oil prices remain under pressure after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist as US President Donald Trump reinstates his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to cut its oil exports to zero. With OPEC+ maintaining its gradual production increase plans, oil prices may experience further volatility in the coming sessions.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• WTI crude remains close to $72. US-China tensions and growing US crude oil stockpiles add pressure.
• China sets fresh tariffs on imports of US crude, LNG, and other supplies, injecting volatility into the already uncertain global demand for oil.
• The maximum pressure campaign waged by Trump on Iran to try to drive exports to zero further tightens supply and feeds geo-political tension.
• OPEC+ reiterates its gradual increase in production policy, taking away the EIA from its monitoring sources, thereby changing the dynamics of future oil supply expectations.
WTI crude oil stays on the back foot at $72 per barrel as market players digest the impact of US-China trade tensions, the increase in US crude inventories, and the geopolitical risks in Iran. The new tariffs China imposed on US imports of crude and LNG introduce uncertainty to global demand. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles are building for the third consecutive week according to the American Petroleum Institute. In other news, US President Donald Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign targets zeroing Iran’s oil exports, a development that would fuel geopolitical tensions, which can be a potential risk to supply dynamics. Furthermore, OPEC+ reaffirms its gradual increase strategy of production and removes the US Energy Information Administration from the monitoring sources in its move further into the future shaping of oil price trends.
WTI crude oil remains near $72 as US-China trade tensions, rising US crude inventories, and Iran-related supply risks weigh on market sentiment. China’s new tariffs on US crude add uncertainty, while Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran fuels geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, OPEC+ sticks to its gradual production increase strategy, influencing future oil prices.
• Crude oil could not take momentum with cautious market sentiment on geopolitics and economy.
• New tariffs on Chinese imports of U.S. crude and LNG continue to put more pressure on oil demand globally
• Renewed “maximum pressure” campaign to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero from Donald Trump further escalate geopolitical risks.
• API: +5.025 million bbl increase in U.S. crude stock which will heighten concerns about the potential for an oversupply buildup.
• Oil traders seem to downplay the immediate impact of new tariffs on demand.
• OPEC+ confirms its plan to increase oil output gradually and removes the EIA from its monitoring sources.
• WTI prices are unstable due to supply and demand factors.
WTI crude oil prices remain near $72 per barrel as global markets react to a mix of trade tensions, supply risks, and inventory build-ups. This week, China issued newly imposed tariffs on US crude and imports of LNG, raising concerns over weak demand, but the market seems to play down at least its short-term impact. Meanwhile, American Petroleum Institute (API) report shows a significant increase of 5.025 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, its third straight weekly rise and nurturing fears of oversupply. A weak rebound after posting a 3% decline just the previous days still leaves oil prices in state of flux today as traders play out these dual dynamics.
WTI Daily Price Chart
TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA
Adding in geopolitics’ role, meanwhile, US President Donald Trump rolled back his pressure campaign to ensure Iran’s exports go to zero. This would knock off about 1.5 million barrels daily from global supplies, adding further uncertainty to the oil markets. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ has reaffirmed its plan for a gradual resumption of increasing oil production alongside removing the United States Energy Information Administration from their list of monitored sources. Together with the mixed geopolitical developments going on and uncertain market sentiment, WTI crude prices may not be spared additional volatility in trading sessions ahead.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WTI crude oil is still under bearish pressure as it fails to stay above the $72 level. The price has been trading below key moving averages, which indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are showing signs of a bearish crossover, which means further downside risk. RSI is still close to the oversold zone, which would mean that there is a possibility of having consolidation or a minor bounce before it embarks on another leg down. The support areas are near $71.50 and $70.00, whereas resistance is located around $73.50 and $75.00. A stronger break through support will add to pressure selling, whereas breaking above resistance may lead to a short-term recovery.
FORECAST
WTI crude oil may rebound if market sentiment changes due to geopolitical supply risks or an improved global demand outlook. A strong push above the $73.50 resistance level may trigger fresh buying momentum, with the next key targets around $75.00 and $76.50. Any unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ or escalating tensions in the Middle East could further support prices. Additionally, if the US and China take steps to ease trade tensions or undertake economic stimulus measures, oil demand expectations may improve with a rise to their advantage in increasing WTI prices. Confirmation of a recovery trend can be elicited from technical indicators like RSI and MACD turning into bullish.
On the downside, WTI crude oil has susceptibility to further declines especially as global demand deteriorates due to sustained US-China trade tensions. A sustained break below the $71.50 support level could result in a deeper correction, with key downside targets at $70.00 and $68.50. The latest API data indicates rising US crude oil inventories, suggesting potential oversupply concerns that are weighing on prices. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve signals tighter monetary policy, a stronger US dollar could pressure oil, making it more expensive for foreign buyers. If WTI can not hold above the key technical support zones, further bearish momentum could drive prices toward new lows.
